Unexplainable — "Who's Afraid of Big, Bad Yellowstone?" (Jan 5, 2026)

Host: Bird Pinkerton (Vox)
Guest: Mike Poland, Scientist-In-Charge, Yellowstone Volcano Observatory

Overview

This episode tackles the widespread fears and myths surrounding Yellowstone National Park’s supervolcano. Host Bird Pinkerton and expert Mike Poland dive into what we actually know about Yellowstone’s volcanic risk, why the doomsday scenario is so unlikely, and what the real, more immediate dangers in the area are. The conversation also explores the methods scientists use to monitor volcanic activity, the limits of what is currently explainable, and why sensationalist stories about Yellowstone can be misleading and even disrespectful.

Key Topics and Insights

1. The Myth of Imminent Yellowstone Doom (01:00–03:55)

• Popular Fears: Mike Poland reports that the notion Yellowstone is "brewing a cataclysmic eruption that could wipe out humanity at any moment" is pervasive—but “they just aren’t true.”
  • Quote: “You would have heard that Yellowstone ... one day is going to have another one of these eruptions and we don't know when. It could be tomorrow ... And if it does that, then it could mean the end of the human race. ... And these things just aren't. They just aren't true.” – Mike Poland (01:36)
• Expert Certainty: Modern volcanic monitoring gives scientists high confidence that Yellowstone is not on the verge of erupting.
  • Quote: “So Yellowstone is not a threat in terms of volcanic activity in the immediate future.” – Mike Poland (02:46)

2. How Scientists Know Yellowstone Isn't About to Blow (03:55–09:14)

• Geological Record: Yellowstone’s eruption history shows long quiet periods—last lava flows were 70,000 years ago, supereruptions maybe once per million years.
  • Quote: “It is clear that this system was not just constantly going off all the time, that there were long pauses between eruptions. So we appear to be in one of those periods of quiet...” – Mike Poland (05:19)
• Crystal Clues: Crystals in old lava act like "tree rings," revealing past thermal events—and show that eruptions are preceded by substantial internal changes.
• Seismic and MRI-like Monitoring:
  • Scientists use seismic waves, magnetics, and gravity to see what’s happening below.
  • Quote: “You can basically do something that's akin to ... taking an MRI of the Earth.” – Mike Poland (07:21)
  • Current imaging shows the so-called “magma chamber” is mostly solidified—not nearly melted enough for a catastrophic eruption.
  • Memorable Analogy: “Imagine a lava cake that is ... a week old. ... When you slice into it, you know, nothing moves. There's no flowage there because it's, you know, 80% solid.” – Mike Poland (08:18)

3. Why the Supervolcano Story Persists (03:03–03:55, 18:05–19:29)

• Media and Human Psychology: Sensationalism loves worst-case scenarios, but Mike argues this myth distracts from real concerns and overshadows the true wonders of Yellowstone.
  • Quote: “It causes us to focus on the wrong things ... why turn it into this boogeyman?” – Mike Poland (18:23)
  • Mike also calls it “kind of disrespectful to the landscape and to the place.” (18:23)

Not the End of the World, But Still Dangerous (11:59–16:44)

4. Real, Present-Day Hazards in Yellowstone

• Major Earthquakes:
  • The 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake (magnitude 7.3) caused a landslide, created a lake, and killed over two dozen people.
  • Quote: “The largest earthquake Ever recorded in the intermountain west was just a few miles west of Yellowstone National Park. ... Over two dozen people died. It dammed a river and it created a new lake.” – Mike Poland (12:23)
• Steam Explosions:
  • Yellowstone is riddled with hot water just below the surface. Occasionally, pressure builds up and explodes—hydrothermal or steam explosions.
  • Memorable Recent Event: July 23, 2024, Biscuit Basin: large explosion sent mud, rocks, and boiling water flying, though nobody was hurt.
    • “That kind of thing happens almost all the time in Yellowstone. ... It's annually there are explosions maybe not that dramatic …” – Mike Poland (14:06)

5. Difficulties of Predicting Steam Explosions (15:02–17:36)

• Unpredictability: No reliable predictors for steam explosions have been found yet; sometimes measuring equipment simply isn’t in the right place at the right time.
• Resource Limitations: Can’t monitor every hot spring—too expensive, too intrusive.
  • Quote: “If I wanted to pay $7 trillion zillion and you could put equipment in every pool. ... There is a cultural cost. ... Do you want to go to Yellowstone and see wires and solar panels and batteries...?” – Mike Poland (17:30)
• Still Searching: Scientists keep experimenting with new kinds of data—electrical conductivity, ground deformation, seismic signs, temperature changes—but lack enough observations to establish clear warning signs.
  • Quote: “Maybe we should be looking at the electrical activity, the conductivity, the resistivity of the subsurface ... Or maybe we should be looking at magnetic properties ... Or maybe there will be changes in the temperature of the spring.” – Mike Poland (16:44)

Closing: Respect the Place, Celebrate the Science (19:29–20:54)

• Wonder of Yellowstone:
  • Mike offers a heartfelt account of the park’s diversity: forests, meadows with bison, rivers, geysers, and iconic geothermal features.
  • Quote: “You will smell pine forest ... and then you'll walk out into a meadow ... then you pass around the corner and you're hit by the smell of rotten eggs and a weird plume. And ... there's a rainbow colored spring that's steaming ... boiling water is shooting up out of the ground 100ft in the air.” – Mike Poland (19:45)
  • Bird’s Response: “I gotta go to Yellowstone.” (20:40)
• Mike’s Main Point: Focus on true, meaningful wonders and real risks; don’t let doomsday scenarios overshadow the scientific, ecological, and experiential value of this iconic place.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “These things just aren’t true.” — Mike Poland (01:36)
• “Yellowstone is not a threat in terms of volcanic activity in the immediate future.” – Mike Poland (02:46)
• “Imagine a lava cake that is ... a week old. ... 80% solid.” – Mike Poland (08:18)
• “It causes us to focus on the wrong things ... why turn it into this boogeyman?” – Mike Poland (18:23)
• “Yellowstone is stunning ... iconic landscapes, charismatic megafauna, right? ... That's amazing. It sells itself, but why turn it into this boogeyman?” – Mike Poland (18:23)
• “It's almost like a whack a mole game.” – Mike Poland (17:16)
• “You will smell pine forest ... and ... a herd of bison … and ... a rainbow colored spring that's steaming … boiling water ... shooting up out of the ground 100ft in the air.” – Mike Poland (19:45)

Suggested Further Listening

• “The View from Inside a Volcano” — Previous episode with Mike Poland on building a "magma observatory."

Summary

This engaging episode dispels the apocalyptic Yellowstone myth and guides listeners through the science of understanding—and appreciating—the world’s most famous supervolcano. Instead of fearing a once-in-a-million-years cataclysm, respect the very real (but non-supervolcanic) dangers Yellowstone does pose—and marvel at its natural wonders.