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- [00:00]
Jason Concepcion
Foreign. You are Thomas Rowlandson. You are one of the finest draftsmen in England. But you could be one of the greatest painters alive if only you weren't a degenerate gambler. Right now you're sitting at a gaming table drawing a picture of a gaming table. And the picture will be called a Kick up at the hazard table. It shows high society men gathered around a dice game as violence erupts. A British officer pulling a pistol. A Frenchman drawing his own. Someone swinging a chair, someone grabbing a candlestick. England has been gripped by a betting mania that started decades before you were born. In 1720, the British government handed its debt to a trading company in exchange for the promise of a trade monopoly to South America. There was no trade. There was no trade monopoly. There was only insider trading. Fortunes were wiped out overnight, including Isaac Newton'. The mania for speculation didn't end with the crash. It migrated from the stock exchanges to any place powerful men gathered. Places like White's. Since 1743, the most exclusive gentleman's club in London has kept a leather bound book. It is a litany of wagering depravity. £3,000 on which of two raindrops will reach the bottom of the bow window first. 20 guineas on which two old men will die first. Both bettors in the affair kill themselves before the wager is settled. One over gambling debts. A man collapses at the club's door. He's carried inside. Immediately the bets go down. Will he live or will he die? Someone suggests rendering medical aid. The men who bet death object. That would be unfair. This is the world that you are drawing. You are already gambling away everything you earn. Soon your aunt will die and leave you £7,000 and you will lose all of that too. Sitting at a table for 36 hours at a stretch until you are destitute. Living in shabby rooms off the strand produce producing over 10,000 prints and drawings in your lifetime. Not out of passion for art, because you need the money. This is. Wait a Second. And today we're talking about prediction markets. Hi, I'm Jason Concepcion. Welcome to Wait a Second. As always, my co host Tyler Parker. We are delighted today to be joined by an old colleague, a new colleague yet again. The press box is Brian Curtis. Wonderful to see you.
- [02:37]
Brian Curtis
Jason.
- [02:38]
Jason Concepcion
Jason, David.
- [02:41]
Brian Curtis
Thanks for having me.
- [02:42]
Jason Concepcion
It's wonderful to have you and to get your expertise on a subject that I think we're all learning about more and more as time goes on. This is the prediction markets. Let's Start here. On February 28, the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran. Within hours, Polymarket, One of the two dominant prediction market platforms, along with Kalshi, logged over $500 million in trading volume on a single when would these strikes happen? Six brand new accounts opened in the days before the bombs fell made a combined $1 million, correctly predicting the answer. One account bet $32,000 on the morning of February 28th. When the platform zone odds put the chance of strikes that day at 17%, it walked away with a whopping $553,000. Nobody has been charged. It's not even clear if this is illegal at this point in time. So that's one of the questions that needs to be answered going forward. And this is not a new problem. Prediction markets have existed for a long time, but just in the last year, their profile and the amount of money they are dealing have grown, you know, exponentially. It's now a $20 billion industry. That's not a lot, but it's growing. And, you know, also growing are the questions about like, is this good? Is this good for us? Is it good that we can bet on the chance that nuclear war could happen this year? Although they've pulled that bet. Brian, what kind of experience do you have with these markets?
- [04:15]
Brian Curtis
Ooh, I think right now I'm in the worrying about prediction markets phase in my life, as we all are, especially when you see stuff like that Iran thing. Now, let's face it, the Trump administration's kind of leaky. People that were at Joe's Steak and Crab in Washington had some insight.
- [04:34]
Jason Concepcion
That's right. They were just kind of yapping out loud about the strikes and were overheard by numerous other customers.
- [04:41]
Tyler Parker
Seafood gets me in a talkative way.
- [04:43]
Brian Curtis
You know, finished off an old fashioned and pulled out the laptop. Let's make some bets. Let's go.
- [04:48]
Jason Concepcion
This episode is brought to you by Brooks Running Max softness. Max energy. Max Run. Go on a run that never runs out. In the new Brooks Glycerin Max 2 dual cell DNA tuned cushion is optimized for soft landings and powerful toe offs while a glide roll rocker helps provide a more fluid step through. To help you truly tune out and max your run, shop the Glycerin max II@brooksnunning.com this podcast is brought to you by Carvana Car shopping shouldn't feel like preparing for a marathon of paperwork. That's why Carvana makes buying and financing your car easy. From start to finish. Search thousands of vehicles with great prices, all online, all on your time. And when you're ready, your new car shows up right at Your door. It doesn't get better than that. Buy your car the easy way on delivery fees may apply. I think it's also there's, you know, probably an interesting kind of contrast within that administration. You've got people with a lot of money. You've got people who have maybe not a lot of money, but are across information that is worth a lot of money. And why not make a little. Little on the side occasionally? Like, if you're. I can understand the impetus to be like, you know, I know this, it's not going to stop anything, but why not get across it now? I change my mind every day about whether this is a feature or a bug of these platforms. It surely seems like insider trading is the feature. Shane Coplin has kind of made the argument explicitly that the insider information being distributed widely is a good thing. He told Axios in 2025, fall of 2025, insider trading is good because it creates a financial incentive for people to go and divulge the information to the market. I can kind of grasp that as a good. Where I push back is if you are making a anonymous bet five minutes before the bombs fall, is that really distributing important information widely to people who should know it, or is that just. We're trying to make a little scratch on the side off people getting blown up.
- [07:05]
Tyler Parker
It just seems shitty. Right? I don't. It doesn't feel like. It feels like the way for them to try to convince people of this is to say these things about how the goal is that it's a public good. But like most things, goals and how the thing is actually put into practice are two totally different things. And this just feels like a bunch of depraved people participating in depraved acts.
- [07:39]
Jason Concepcion
It also, you know, like I was telling you both this before we turn the mics on, it feels like we're at a stage of modernity where the previous definitions of words have. And things that we all have agreed mean something have gone increasingly into these, like, extrapolations from the original meaning. So that insider trading is just the divulging of important information according to market principles. And, you know, the metaphor I used was, you know, it'd be like someone peeing on your leg, telling you it's raining and then saying, but this is great because now you will know the percentage chance that someone will pee on your leg in the future and tell you it's raining.
- [08:30]
Brian Curtis
I think that's pretty perfect. And I'm not persuaded by squint. And you will see deep throats everywhere.
- [08:35]
Tyler Parker
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [08:36]
Brian Curtis
Telling us about US Policy with Iran and who will be the next Democratic nominee and who will win the Western Conference this year.
- [08:43]
Jason Concepcion
Yeah.
- [08:44]
Brian Curtis
Because it just doesn't feel like that's what's driving all of these investments.
- [08:49]
Jason Concepcion
I completely agree. Now, one must say, with specific regard to politics, this is where it feels like the prediction markets are really showing what kind of influence they can have in a particular space. Polls. It's been noted for the last ever since Trump got elected, basically is how did the polls miss this? Here come the prediction markets. And they're much more accurate than the polls for the reasons we noted that they incentivize this kind of insider information to enter discourse according to market principles. You see prediction markets now partnering themselves with news outlets as kind of a branch of news that Kalshi is partnering with CNN and cnbc, which created this weird situation where CNN is reporting on the perceived insider trading on Kalshi while there's like a Kalshi Chiron on the bottom of the screen. Polymarket is partnered with Yahoo Finance and Google Finance and Dow Jones and their various properties, including the Wall Street, Wall Street Journal. But it makes me think that here's the Trump boys are involved. Right. Don Jr. Is an advisor to Kalsheet, but also an investor to polymarket, which is a great way to get your beak wet on all sides of the equation. And some part of me feels like, well, isn't this just a way for CNN to be like, okay, take it easy on us. We'll invest in your kid's company?
- [10:26]
Brian Curtis
You know, it's the kind of side door Melania documentary.
- [10:30]
Jason Concepcion
Yes. So all of these questions at once are kind of encapsulated in this idea of prediction markets because on the one hand, yes. More accurate than polls. Great. We can see that Stephen A. Smith currently trending at 1% on poly markets.
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Brian Curtis
That is accurate.
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Tyler Parker
Congrats to him, I think.
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Jason Concepcion
Congrats to him. But on the other hand, it feels like we've just figured out a way to do bribery and insider trading out in the open now.
- [10:58]
Brian Curtis
Yeah, look, you identified a lot there. Yeah, the Trump boys. Let's start with that. When Shane Copeland was on 60 Minutes not long ago, he said I needed help navigating this administration.
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Jason Concepcion
How so?
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Brian Curtis
That's one way to do it.
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Jason Concepcion
Okay.
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Brian Curtis
Many people have been. Many people are saying, yeah, this is the way to do it.
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Jason Concepcion
It's like a minotaur's labyrinth in there.
- [11:20]
Brian Curtis
Yeah. There's some enriching going on and it ain't uranium.
- [11:23]
Jason Concepcion
Yeah.
- [11:23]
Brian Curtis
Let me tell you that with this thing. So there's that. And then, like you said, we're just taking something that was said to be secret, that was said to be something that was done on the sly. But what if we just kind of put it out there in an unregulated nature and you can just do it, you know? And we don't know how that happened with those great freaky Iran bets that just all came home. Like, what?
- [11:45]
Tyler Parker
Yeah, that's kind of my. My thing is, like, didn't we already decide this was a really bad thing across the board insider trading? Like, hasn't this already sort of been.
- [11:56]
Jason Concepcion
Yes, but there, again, I think if we were to look up the definition of insider trading according to the sec, that it's a little like the gather step in the NBA, you know, it's like you could look at it and you'd slow it down, and you go frame by frame and you go, okay, this is why it's not two steps, because, look, gather. And then the foot comes up and then there's a pivot. And then now when that second foot lifts, there's your second step, but it hasn't stepped down yet. Similar to that, these aren't bets, they're contracts. Because there's no house involved that is taking odds. They're just taking a cut. Which, by the way, isn't that how card houses work? So whatever. Okay, let's put that aside. It's not insider trading because there's no. It's a security which is regulated differently. So there's all these ways to get around stuff. Now, all of which is to say, yes, insider trading is bad, but it's not clear that this is definitionally insider trading. Although it is.
- [13:04]
Tyler Parker
Right? Yeah.
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Jason Concepcion
Does any of that make sense to anybody?
- [13:08]
Tyler Parker
No, but I unfortunately sort of understand what you're saying. You know, what I mean is it is part of it that, like, these things are in bounds specifically because of the current administration? Like, because I know Biden's people were a lot more hardcore about going after these people than Don. Don Jr. And his papa have been.
- [13:36]
Jason Concepcion
Yeah, yeah. To your point. Yes. Okay. The Bidens were. Biden administration was a lot more stringent about where these markets could operate. I believe polymarket was operating, like, out of the Caribbean or something. And then literally the day after the election, it was like, don Junior's on the board. Let's get in. Let's get active out here. So there's a lot of other. There's a lot of things going on with that Regard. And then I wonder, Brian, if you had any thoughts about the way. I was listening to an interview with Tariq Mansour, the CEO and founder of Kalshi, where he's talking about, you know, part of what we're trying to do is provide a service and provide people with clarity of information because our traditional sources of information and our, our institutions have failed us so badly and we've lost all trust with that. Your thoughts about that?
- [14:31]
Brian Curtis
So this, this goes back to a little bit about casting all these, these people and these markets themselves as, as Deep Throat style truth tellers, which I do not believe. But I do think there' media and where it lets people down that's relevant here, which is if you study the way people consume information, they always want to know what is unknowable.
- [14:50]
Jason Concepcion
Right.
- [14:51]
Brian Curtis
So on the profound end, when will the US send ground forces into Iran? They want to know that answer.
- [14:56]
Tyler Parker
Sure.
- [14:56]
Brian Curtis
On the silly, stupid end, what will the Dallas Cowboys do with the 12th pick in the NFL draft? And when they talk to reporters, these are the questions they ask, what are the Cowboys going to do with the 12th pick? What are they going to do? That information is unknowable. We do the best. Most plugged in reporter could not know that information. So this sends people to prediction markets or things like prediction markets, because it's like, oh, here I can find an answer to this, or I can put some money down and predict an answer to this. And so I think that is all tied into this. Absolutely. You know, it's just we've gotten to this point in history where there's so much news and yet there's not the answer to the question that you want.
- [15:32]
Jason Concepcion
Right.
- [15:33]
Brian Curtis
And is that, is that a failure on the part of the media? I don't think so. But it's just this very natural, very normal human quest to know the unknowable that gets us there.
- [15:46]
Jason Concepcion
Now here's where I think these markets cross the line into something I think that is just toxic in some way to the culture. It's one thing to be like, hey, Gavin Newsom. There's a lot of smart money on Gavin Newsom at 19% to get the presidential nomination for the Democratic Party. And J.D. vance is at 21%. Okay? That's insiders and people who follow politics very closely, giving intelligent opinions based on the market, fine. But when you incentivize people who are involved in a decision making process like say, negotiations with a country over their possession of nuclear material or ballistic missiles or something like that, and suddenly you're incentivized by the existence of these markets to maybe not negotiate in full and clear trust that you're actually trying to get a deal done. Maybe you're thinking well it looks like we're not going to get a deal done. Let me put a little money down. But then all of a sudden they come in and they're like, actually we want to do it, we want to sign. Now where does that go? Are you thinking about the $500,000 you're going to make on the other side of this or are you thinking, hey, it'd be great if we did sign this deal. Those are the issues where it becomes a little murky to me. People in the decision making process who are incentivized in ways that are counter to the process and the good of the large part of the population.
- [17:29]
Brian Curtis
It's pretty gross. I'll go up to 30,000ft and just say I think it's really gross to gamble on a wars.
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Jason Concepcion
Yeah. More than a lot of people dying.
- [17:38]
Brian Curtis
I mean to me to look at those odds on the various sites we're talking about and see like this all involves people dying. That is what this is. And to say hey, we got the newest odds up. What do you got? You know, 15% chance, 20% chance, that's just exceedingly gross to me.
- [17:57]
Jason Concepcion
To your point, March 31st as the date that US ground forces enter Iran by is up 8% to 31%.
- [18:08]
Brian Curtis
This is the other one that had the big money come in on it.
- [18:10]
Jason Concepcion
A lot of big money. Come on this recently up 8% just over the last week I believe. And December 31st is at 57% by New Year's.
- [18:21]
Tyler Parker
Yeah. I mean it just like this just, it feels like we're cooked as a society like in every way. And it's in like it, it, it, there's no way to trust that Trump or any of his cronies aren't paying attention to these things. Right. Obviously we've already detailed that this son is on the board and stuff.
- [18:41]
Brian Curtis
He is paying attention.
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Jason Concepcion
He's advising both companies.
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Tyler Parker
I mean even if you take a step back from the like the sort of obvious depraved shit. I know I keep using that word but I can't really think of another word for it. It just feels just gross. There was during the, at the end of the State of the Union it was sort of like immediately pointed out like oh, his speech went a little bit shorter than whatever minute mark everyone sort of assumed it was going to get to.
- [19:11]
Jason Concepcion
Yeah. Over two hours Was a, was a hot bet for a little while on the prediction markets and there was a lot of signaling from sources close to the administration. Oh, man, it's gonna go. It's gonna be a long, historically long.
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Brian Curtis
I watched that speech. It felt like it was over two hours.
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Jason Concepcion
I couldn't believe he was still going.
- [19:28]
Brian Curtis
And with Trump, it's really hard to tell because we got the speech in the prompter and then we got these little riffs. What if I just riff for another like 13 minutes, right, and got us over the two hour mark?
- [19:39]
Tyler Parker
Or I mean, I even think about, like, what if there are people in that audience that have placed their bets certain ways and they're like, we're getting close. I'm feeling like he's ending. You know what, let's really give a long standing O for the next point that he makes or whatever. There just feels so many ways to do, you know, like there were a
- [19:57]
Brian Curtis
lot of standing ovations in that speech. Not to be conspiratorial here, no this podcast, but standing O's. Mike Johnson was hopping out of his seat all night.
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Jason Concepcion
Now, do you remember there was an incident with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong? He, he was on an earnings call and there were bets on polymarket that he would say certain words, whether or not certain words would be uttered. At the end of the call, which was being streamed, he pulls open the polymarket page and just reads the words.
- [20:26]
Brian Curtis
Oh, my God.
- [20:27]
Jason Concepcion
Now, I don't know where, like, I don't know which side to come down on this, but this is like one of the other things when the thing being bet upon is a person who is aware of the money moving.
- [20:42]
Tyler Parker
Yeah.
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Jason Concepcion
Where are we then when that person, organization, whatever, is able to simply look at it and affect the bet in some way, either pro or con.
- [20:56]
Brian Curtis
How do you honor that bet?
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Jason Concepcion
I don't know. That's the other thing.
- [21:00]
Brian Curtis
Why would you honor that bet? I'm going to read the word salad that I'm supposed to read on this call so that everybody gets paid. It makes absolutely no sense.
- [21:09]
Jason Concepcion
I think about these prediction markets in line with the way it appears. I'm not an economist, but it appears to me like the economy in the 21st century has changed in a fundamental way in that there's been more and more products that have been put to market that are based in some form or fashion on extracting value from customers who are low. Information, you know, you have that makes. The subprime crisis was part of this. I think NFTs is part of this Bitcoin, you could say, maybe, but certainly the garbage junk coins are part of this where it's like there's are just elaborate pump and dump schemes.
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Tyler Parker
I don't know. I'm not going to hear you like, disparage hawk2.
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Jason Concepcion
I'm sorry. The hawk2 coin is a great version of this. And then the thing with the prediction markets is I was watching their commercials to prepare for this, and they are clearly aimed at like, getting the dumb money into the platform. Because that's how you get the smart money into the platform is like nobody wants to go someplace where you're competing against people with all the best information. Just like you. You want to enter a platform where there's a lot of dummies in there who don't know up from down and are looking at this as the only way they're gonna retire one day, you know, or like the only way they're gonna buy a house one day. And all of which is to say it feels we've entered this predatory state where there's all these products, but they exist mainly to just take your information, take your money in return for like a digital token maybe, or like a thing that exists on somebody else's server, maybe. Your thoughts about this, Brian?
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Brian Curtis
The chance that Delsey Rodriguez will be president of Venezuela at the end of
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Jason Concepcion
2026, is that falling right now?
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Brian Curtis
So it's a classic casino.
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Jason Concepcion
Yeah.
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Brian Curtis
We're going to have the Sharps. We know those people are going to be in here right now. We need to herd those people in who are just going to dump coins into slot machines and if they happen to win, take all those winnings and go dump it into a slot machine next door and give it right back to the house. So is the difference between this and a classic casino that is just bigger and easier to get on, and you're snaring more people into it than would walk into your brick and mortar place
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Jason Concepcion
in Vegas, I guess. Well, listen, the people involved in these markets would tell you that, and the people who study them will tell you the more people you have in, the more accurate the information. When you have a shallow depth of bodies in there, that's when you get a lot of noise and a lot of weird stuff. But if you get a lot of people in there, the wisdom of crowds rises to the surface. And now you can more accurately trade on whatever information is being traded on.
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Tyler Parker
That sort of feels like when they say, like, you know, come on in here, because the more you buy, the
- [24:14]
Jason Concepcion
more you say, I mean, that is a little bit of what they're saying.
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Tyler Parker
Like, it just feels like, how dumb are you? How dumb are you to you? Like, there's a constant gauge. It is like life in. At least on the Internet now is like, it is an exercise in trying to not get scam at all times, especially just life in America.
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Jason Concepcion
Yeah. Yeah.
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Tyler Parker
But, like, I think particularly on the Internet, you just have to constantly be out for, like, okay, obviously this thing that is wanting my money doesn't have my best interest in mind.
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Jason Concepcion
Giannis, the Greek freak, recently partnered with Kalshi in some form or fashion. I don't understand the. The details of that partnership, but I found it weirdly more gross than what's going on with the Clippers and Kawhi and the cap circumnavigation. It feels like something that strikes even more deeply at the heart of fair competition.
- [25:20]
Brian Curtis
So I'm interested in that. Is that because we, the three of us, know how trade rumors work?
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Jason Concepcion
Yes.
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Brian Curtis
Is that why?
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Jason Concepcion
Yeah. I mean, it's.
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Brian Curtis
We know how easy those little minnows are to release into the NBA media waters.
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Jason Concepcion
I fully expect several anonymous accounts to place a bet that Giannis will go to X team in the hours before it happens. I fully expect that to happen. Right. That will happen.
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Brian Curtis
And when you think of what that market looks like, you got to have. You can't just have two teams in the market. You want to have four, five, six.
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Jason Concepcion
Yeah.
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Brian Curtis
What does it take to get teams five and six into an insider's tweet are also in the hunt. How are also have made a phone call just to get the odds out there a little bit more. Right. We know how all that. That, that. That that system works. Whether it's insider trading or not, it's pretty easy to get lots of strange information.
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Jason Concepcion
Yeah.
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Brian Curtis
Into the insider ecosystem.
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Jason Concepcion
You could just get Giannis wearing a Miami Marlins hat, you know, you know, walking down the street, get the. Get the odds up for the heat.
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Tyler Parker
You know, I mean, I even think about it in terms of, you know, coaching candidates for certain jobs and stuff like that. We're just like, you know, some. One of the. One of these insiders is like, trying to pat the back of an agent. And so, hey, can you say this? You know the second assistant on the Kings who is one of my clients, can you say that he's a hot coaching search candidate for X team or whatever? Like, they just.
- [26:52]
Producer
It.
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Tyler Parker
There's no way to. It's whack a mole with all this bullshit. There's no way to keep Tabs on all of it.
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Jason Concepcion
I can't understand why Adam Silver is fine with this one. Why would this be okay?
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Brian Curtis
Is it just because it's not gambling? Exactly.
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Jason Concepcion
Gambling, as we said, it's not definitionally gambling.
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Brian Curtis
And he was kind of okay with definitionally gambling.
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Tyler Parker
I mean, he wrote the op ed.
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Jason Concepcion
He's turned on his heel on that one, as the entire industry has.
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Brian Curtis
But for this to happen with Giannis right after the trade deadline.
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Jason Concepcion
Yeah, come on.
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Brian Curtis
Right after we've been playing this game.
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Jason Concepcion
Yes. My other question is why. Why does Europe. Why is Europe able to deal with this better than we have? Europe has had legalized sports gambling for a long time. We've had legalized sports gambling here. You know, it's spotty. It's not available in the entire country in the same way, although access is a different matter, whether or not it's legal in your state. But it feels like we have lost control with alacrity, our ability to, like, moderate ourselves with regards to sports gambling. Whereas it feels as if, you know, I read the. I read the European papers and follow the Premier League. There's a lot less, you know, Chauncey Billups type situations. Why is that?
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Brian Curtis
Is it true?
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Jason Concepcion
I don't know.
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Brian Curtis
Are they doing a better job?
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Jason Concepcion
It feels like they're doing a better job.
- [28:21]
Brian Curtis
All I remember is I was in Australia right before sports gambling got legalized in the United States, or at least could be state to state, and everybody there, because it was legal in Australia, was, let me tell you, it's gonna be bad, mate. You know, you're not gonna be scandals all over the place. You're not gonna understand it or whatever. So I don't. I don't know, you know, that it's true. That it is. It does feel like we're in a real feeling out period with everything, right? And this. And this prediction markets feel like the most feeling out of feeling out periods. We're like, we don't really know what it is. We don't know if it's regulated. We don't know if administration. Administration. That rules are going to radically change. You know, President Josh Shapiro let me look up his Polymarket odds. Does he regard Polymarket and Kalshi completely differently than the Trump administration does? Probably so, yeah.
- [29:05]
Jason Concepcion
Well, I mean, you just get his cousin on the board and then you can work it out that way, be very favorable. So other entities are rushing into the mix now. Polly and Kalshi are seeing most of, honestly, most of their volume, it appears at this period in time is Sports betting, that's where most of the stuff comes from. Politics is another big one. And so you have the draft kings of the world getting into it. Polymarket just announced a team up with Palantir in order to bring their databases together and better protect the integrity of sports. A very interesting news item that was dropped today, definitely Palantir.
- [29:46]
Tyler Parker
All about integrity for sure.
- [29:48]
Jason Concepcion
So what's interesting about Palantir is they create a system by which different databases can be merged into one database. You have paper receipts over here, you have Amazon purchases over here. You have social media posts over here. Put that all in one big pot. Palantir cooks it up and then creates a searchable database with all of that unified information. And you have to have an AI that sits on top of it. So clearly the idea is, if we can look at the totality of information that's out there, open source with an AI on top of it, can we figure out if insider trading happened with regards to sports betting?
- [30:31]
Tyler Parker
Doesn't that already kind of exist, though? Like, isn't that how they found out johntay Porter, like, that they. Yes, some apparatus existed where they could see these are. These bets are inconsistent with how things usually go regarding this player. So let's, you know, you think Jontay look into it.
- [30:49]
Jason Concepcion
You think Jontay is kicking himself because if he would have just hung on. Oh, my God, you know what I mean? If he would have just hung on a couple months, a year, then this stuff would have matured. And it's like open season, guys. You just get in there and be like, bet on himself. How many words will I say in a press conference interview and then just take the under the over.
- [31:12]
Brian Curtis
You're really redefining. I bet on myself.
- [31:15]
Jason Concepcion
You can do it. You just go do it. Bet on yourself.
- [31:18]
Brian Curtis
I really am fascinated by the political prediction markets in this.
- [31:22]
Jason Concepcion
Yeah.
- [31:22]
Brian Curtis
Because as you say, some of this is just like, these are really good at common sense, where polls aren't good at common sense. So you ask Democrats right now, who's gonna be the nominee in 2028. What they give you that has no chance of being the nominee?
- [31:34]
Jason Concepcion
That has no chance of being the nominee.
- [31:36]
Brian Curtis
Which Californian. That's not Gavin.
- [31:37]
Jason Concepcion
Oh, Harris.
- [31:38]
Brian Curtis
Exactly.
- [31:39]
Jason Concepcion
Yes.
- [31:39]
Tyler Parker
Right.
- [31:39]
Brian Curtis
Kamala Harris is not going to be the nominee in 2028.
- [31:42]
Jason Concepcion
Absolutely.
- [31:42]
Brian Curtis
Harris campaign. If you shock the world, you're welcome for this clip. Please use it in all your commercials. She's not going to be the nominee in 28, but she's leading a lot of polls. So some of that's just common sense. You go to polymark, you're like, we're not picking Kamala Harris or not picking her as the front runner. Certainly I am fascinated by how the markets knew that Donald Trump was going to win in October 2024, when every. You knew and you knew and I knew was saying, I don't know. I think Kamala might get it. How did that happen? That's not all insider information.
- [32:12]
Jason Concepcion
My sense is, with specific regards to Trump, I think that there is and continues to be a stigma against being like, yeah, support him. I voted for him three times or two times or whatever. And so in polls and in conversation, there's all, yeah, well, you know, politics is so divisive. They're both the same. There's all these different ways that you can counteract, couch it. Whereas somehow the prediction markets were able to cut through that, get past the bullshit of people not wanting to alienate their friends, their kids, whatever, about who they're going to vote for, managed to cut right to the core of it and go, that person's voting this way. I don't know how they did that, but I could see how polls would miss that because there was a lot of hemming and hawing about voting for him and what it would mean for a person and their character.
- [33:07]
Brian Curtis
So Polymarket just takes away the social anxiety and the politeness of saying, actually, they're voting for Trump.
- [33:14]
Jason Concepcion
Yes.
- [33:15]
Brian Curtis
They're not voting for Harris. They're not voting to please their friends or not alienate their friends.
- [33:19]
Jason Concepcion
Somehow they managed to do that.
- [33:21]
Brian Curtis
It's fascinating to me.
- [33:23]
Jason Concepcion
I agree. I agree. Where are we going with. Where is this going? Because we tend to think of we're in a period of tremendous flux, but we tend to think of things as like the end state, state. Here we are. And it can't get worse than this, or it can't get better than this, or it can't change.
- [33:38]
Brian Curtis
I've never thought it can't get worse than this over the last year and
- [33:42]
Jason Concepcion
change, Jason, I mean, every day there's a new thing where you're just like, God, I can't even imagine what comes next. So 10 years from now, that I've thought, okay, yeah, 10 years from now, five years from now. Where do we stand with prediction markets?
- [33:57]
Brian Curtis
So there's already like 10,000 bets on polymarket somewhere around there. Tens of thousands of bets, am I right?
- [34:03]
Jason Concepcion
Yes.
- [34:03]
Brian Curtis
Don't you think there's just lots and lots more that we're getting very, very specific, even more specific about things you can bet on in American life than there are now?
- [34:14]
Tyler Parker
I think so. I mean, what was the figure that you cited like in 2026? It's. There's. They're predicting like $320 billion.
- [34:22]
Jason Concepcion
Yeah. The market in general, they think will be worth. Worth over $300 billion, which in the grand scheme is not like huge, but is big and growing. And I think one thing you can say about the prediction markets is they out punch their weight class in terms of how much we talk about them, how influential they are, how much you see their name on everything regarding information and the flow of information. I mean, the idea that people bet on when the Supreme Leader would leave office, that's a headline that people want to talk about. I think these will only grow. But I honestly can't imagine the ways that this will influence society
- [35:11]
Tyler Parker
to what you said. Do you think it just gets. The stuff you can bet on becomes more and more trivial in that you're betting on things that are local specifically to you. Does it like, what do y' all think the future has in store in terms of that sort of stuff? Is it just gonna get really, really
- [35:30]
Jason Concepcion
small where you can bet on like today? Tyler will come in with a latte. Sure. With a, with an almond milk latte. Can I. I think, you know, maybe one day we will be able to get to that. Personally, I think we're reaching a point like with the economy where putting predatory mechanisms in the hands of consumers is like, maybe where it would go. Imagine if there was an app where you could loan shark to an even poorer person, lend them 50 bucks, and there's some mechanism for recouping that at a 5% a week, whatever. And that's how you invest. It's like you lend out $10 and $15 to other poor people. I think that's where it goes.
- [36:17]
Brian Curtis
That's wild. I'm just trying to process that for a second. I do think, like, the world is getting down. Like, look, we've gone from you can bet on a basketball game to you can bet on discrete events that happen inside a basketball game. So it feels like there'd be a lot more of this.
- [36:29]
Producer
Right.
- [36:29]
Brian Curtis
We're going to go from war with Iran. So you can bet on the Fort Worth City Council, the Fort Worth mayoral election. Right. It's going to get much more local in that sense. Like that. That to me seems like an easy one also. It's like integration with the media. Do you see the Matt Iglesias test flight, Wright Brothers test flight of Polymarket? The Other day.
- [36:49]
Tyler Parker
Wait, what's that?
- [36:50]
Jason Concepcion
So they're partnering with Matt and partnering with various creators in his network, adding polymarket stats to their pieces as a kind of dipping the toe in this blog creator space to see if they can, you know, provide better statistics, better data, better metrics to people who write about politics.
- [37:15]
Brian Curtis
And his argument is, I would have linked to this anyway because this is the kind of thing I'm interested in.
- [37:20]
Jason Concepcion
Right.
- [37:20]
Brian Curtis
I'm just having to be getting paid for it in this sense. But look, we've come to think of, like, a lot of information about sports is, you know, integrated into sports writing now. It's those kinds of things.
- [37:31]
Jason Concepcion
Sure.
- [37:32]
Brian Curtis
What if that's just integrated in geopolitics now? Certainly American politics.
- [37:36]
Jason Concepcion
Certainly.
- [37:36]
Brian Curtis
That's. It's already happened or will certainly happen right away. But what if. Just all kinds of world events. And by the way, you know, we're writing about the future leader of Iran. And by the way, the odds of this person being the leader of Iran by this date are blank. That becomes a sentence in a news article. That's not crazy to me that. That we would. That we would progress to a world where that's happening more and more. Not in the New York Times, maybe.
- [37:58]
Jason Concepcion
Yeah.
- [37:58]
Brian Curtis
But in all kinds of news outlets, on podcasts, places like that, that maybe are sponsored by some of these entities.
- [38:05]
Jason Concepcion
Yeah. I mean, if I was Josh Shapiro and I'm on polymarket in the below 5% and I really want to make a run at this, wouldn't I anonymously buy the yes side, pump up my percentage and have people thinking some smart people must know something about Josh? Why don't. I'm almost certain that's happening now with regards to various bets that you can make on these platforms. Right. That must. It simply must be happening. Although we have no proof, because it's a news story.
- [38:40]
Brian Curtis
If you can get it to happen.
- [38:41]
Jason Concepcion
Right.
- [38:42]
Brian Curtis
If somebody's odds suddenly shoot up, that is now covered as news.
- [38:44]
Jason Concepcion
That's right.
- [38:45]
Tyler Parker
That's a great point.
- [38:46]
Brian Curtis
So then all of a sudden you, oh, it's a thing.
- [38:47]
Jason Concepcion
Hey, Josh.
- [38:48]
Brian Curtis
It may not be surging. May not be.
- [38:49]
Jason Concepcion
Yeah.
- [38:50]
Brian Curtis
May not matter, but it's a thing. It's just like a poll coming out, a nice poll coming out. Except, you know, that's at least a little more organic, or at least theoretically organic.
- [38:58]
Producer
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- [40:52]
Jason Concepcion
I have a quiz for you. Uh oh, here we go. This is a true false quiz on prediction markets. Question 1 An Israeli defense Forces reservist was criminally indicted for using classified military intelligence to place a bet on the outcome of his own country's military strikes, the first prosecution of its kind anywhere in the world. True False.
- [41:14]
Brian Curtis
I don't know the answer to this. I'm not an insider, but on this question. But I'm going to go true.
- [41:19]
Tyler Parker
That feels true.
- [41:20]
Jason Concepcion
It was true. A polymarket account operating as Rico Suave 666 correctly predicted seven outcomes of Israel's June 2025 strikes on Iran and has been linked to this particular military member. And this person is currently under indictment. Question 2 Rico Suave Rico Suave Six Six Six In January 2026, a brand new Polymarket account placed a bet that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would be removed from office. The account netted roughly $400,000 in 24 hours. The operation that removed Maduro was known in advance to only a handful of US Government officials. True or false?
- [42:03]
Brian Curtis
I'm gonna go through on that one too.
- [42:04]
Tyler Parker
This is true. Didn't this one have a funny screen name too, like Maga My man or something like that?
- [42:11]
Jason Concepcion
That's a different. That's a different one. Yes.
- [42:14]
Brian Curtis
That would have been a little too shady.
- [42:16]
Jason Concepcion
It's a different one. But yes, someone did place a wager of $30,000 in the hours before Maduro was captured. Payout was $400,000. Wow. Congressman Richie Torres has introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction markets Act of 2026 as a direct response. I feel like that is an uphill battle for that particular bill. Question 3. On the morning of February 28, 2026, a polymarket account bet 32 grand that the US would strike Iran that day. When the market put the odds of that happening at only 17%, the account walked away with over $500,000.
- [42:56]
Brian Curtis
Yes, yes, yes.
- [42:57]
Jason Concepcion
This is Mag. This is Maga, my man. This is Maga, my man. Shouts to Maga, my man, whoever you are. Question four.
- [43:05]
Tyler Parker
Honestly, no, no shouts to you.
- [43:07]
Jason Concepcion
No, no, no shouts. You do not have to hand it
- [43:10]
Tyler Parker
to you fucking suck Maga, my man.
- [43:14]
Jason Concepcion
Absolutely do not have to hand it to. Question 4. A political candidate was caught on video trading on his own candidacy on a prediction market. He admitted the trades were improper, was fined, suspended five years.
- [43:28]
Brian Curtis
The only part of this I'm wavering on is he admitted, but I'm gonna go true.
- [43:34]
Jason Concepcion
It is true. In May 2025 social media posts showed that a candidate on Kalshi was trading on his own race. Kalshi imposed a disgorgement of profits plus $2,000 penalty against this person.
- [43:47]
Tyler Parker
Somebody needs to send that to Stephen A. Make sure he doesn't.
- [43:50]
Jason Concepcion
Stephen A. He is running. Question 5. A video editor working for a major YouTube channel was caught using advanced knowledge of unreleased videos to bet on their content. The platform that caught him did so without any involvement from federal regulators.
- [44:06]
Brian Curtis
True, because it's just so easy.
- [44:07]
Jason Concepcion
Yes. This was one of Mr. Beast's editors who was betting on the cadence of videos that Mr. Beast.
- [44:15]
Tyler Parker
Speaking of depraved, can I ask, why is this illegal? Why is he getting. Why are these people getting in trouble?
- [44:23]
Jason Concepcion
Well, this is Kalshi self regulating.
- [44:26]
Tyler Parker
This isn't Polymark.
- [44:27]
Jason Concepcion
No, this is Kalshi basically saying this One looks so bad that I don't want it out there because the government might get their hackles raised at something like this. So let me just crack down right now.
- [44:38]
Tyler Parker
Okay, Got it.
- [44:39]
Brian Curtis
Not to mention other players.
- [44:40]
Jason Concepcion
That's right.
- [44:40]
Brian Curtis
Yeah, yeah. This is all members and there's no house. I'm just betting against you. And if you are the one that knows about the videos, that's not fair.
- [44:49]
Tyler Parker
Totally.
- [44:49]
Jason Concepcion
But this is like the hawk to a coin. And obviously my deepest condolences to anybody taken in by the Hawk to a coin. If you are ashamed, if you are betting, never again. If you are betting on what videos Mr. Beast is going to release, call the number now.
- [45:05]
Brian Curtis
Yes, please go to Santa Anita and grab slits off the ground and see if they actually won.
- [45:14]
Jason Concepcion
Question 6. The same pseudonymous poly market account won over $1 million by correctly predicting 22 of 23 outcomes in Google's year end search rankings and had previously won 150,000 by correctly predicting the exact release date of a Google product launch.
- [45:31]
Brian Curtis
I'm all in on this one too.
- [45:33]
Jason Concepcion
Yes. The account alpharecoon placed both sets of bets. No charges have been filed. Semafork contacted Google for comment and the company has declined to comment. Question 7. After the Iran strikes, polymarket was required by the CFTC to identify and freeze the accounts of suspected insider traders within 72 hours.
- [45:54]
Brian Curtis
So this is a government entity.
- [45:56]
Jason Concepcion
That's right.
- [45:57]
Brian Curtis
Coming to polymarket and say, hey, those Iran bets little too on the nose? Do we believe this is the only one? Here's what I'm getting skeptical. Did the government intervene?
- [46:07]
Tyler Parker
Yeah, I kind of think it's false,
- [46:09]
Brian Curtis
but state secrets, I don't know. You know, Trump is. They are. The administration is a little. I'm going to go true.
- [46:16]
Jason Concepcion
This is false. The Commodities Futures Trading Commission was not involved. No requirement exists. And in fact, it's unclear to me that there's anything illegal about these particular bets on the Iran strikes, as horrendous as they are. Question 8. Ahead of Super Bowl 60, a polymarket account created the day before the game. This is so insane that some of this stuff that you're just.
- [46:38]
Tyler Parker
Anyway, when the account gets created the day before the thing, the morning of the. It's just crazy.
- [46:45]
Jason Concepcion
Anyway, ahead of Super Bowl 60, a polymarket account created the day before the game purchased nearly $70,000 in contracts related to the halftime show performers and won all but one bet.
- [46:57]
Tyler Parker
True, True.
- [46:58]
Jason Concepcion
The case is cited in a Morrison Forster legal analysis of prediction markets and insider trading. The halftime show lineup is known in advance to NFL officials, production staff and the performers representatives. Of course, no charges have been filed. This would be the number of performers on stage.
- [47:15]
Brian Curtis
I was gonna say, which one did they lose? They couldn't believe it was Ricky Martin and they didn't make a
- [47:22]
Jason Concepcion
question. The CFTC has rules specifically prohibiting government officials from trading prediction markets on events they have the power to influence. Has been in place since 2012.
- [47:32]
Brian Curtis
I'm gonna say false.
- [47:33]
Tyler Parker
That's kind of how I feel. Because if the other one was false, then this one has to be right.
- [47:37]
Jason Concepcion
It's a big false.
- [47:38]
Tyler Parker
Yeah.
- [47:38]
Brian Curtis
If we can't get a stock trading ban, we ain't getting this ban.
- [47:41]
Jason Concepcion
There's various bills that are out there, but it's unclear anything will happen. Final question. Norwegian authorities opened a formal investigation after Polymarket Bets correctly predicted a Nobel Prize winner approximately 11 hours before the announcement. And the Norwegian Nobel Institute confirmed it was looking into whether confidential information had been leaked. I mean, true or false?
- [48:05]
Brian Curtis
Did they short Trump or did they predict the Nobel Prize? I'm going to say true.
- [48:11]
Jason Concepcion
It is true. Unusual betting activity preceded the announcement. Announcement of the 2025 prize. I'm going to say that confidential information got leaked because that's probably a little exactly what this platform is made for. What a world we live in. Our next topic, number stations. You familiar with number stat. On February 28, the same day the bombs started falling in Iran, a voice appeared on a shortwave radio station at 7. 7910 kilohertz. It said in Farsi the word for attention and then read a string of numbers. Then it went quiet. Amateur shortwave trackers around the world began logging it. It is known to them as V32. And because of this station, the FBI issued alert saying, be aware, sleeper agents. Iranian sleeper agents might be getting activated. The implication was clear that this was an Iranian intelligence channel. But when trackers tried to locate the transmitter, they found that it was located not in Iran, but somewhere in Western Europe. And when Iran's government started jamming the signal, the station didn't go dark. It moved. It switched to a new frequency and the jammer kept hitting. You know, this old message, classic cat and mouse game was on with the Iranian government trying to jam this station and the station jumping around. So is this either Iranian intelligence activating spy networks, sleeper cells in other countries, or is it some other US or Israeli intelligence beaming into Iran saying to its sleeper agents, go do xyz. First of all, what's cool about these are have existed for a long time and the numbers correspond to like one time pads. You know, it's pads with numbers on it. Each pad is.
- [50:19]
Tyler Parker
Wait, I don't know what a one time pad is.
- [50:21]
Jason Concepcion
What is it? So a pad is a one time pad is a pad with a selection of numbers in a specific random order on it. And the key numbers, the pattern of random numbers only matches the one time pad that the radio station also has. So you have a pad that only the other person knows. It's basically an unbreakable code. So they will say the numbers, they only correspond to your pad, not anybody else's. You circle the letters that correspond to the numbers on the pad as they read them down and then it tells you what the message is. So unless you have the order of numbers, it's impossible to figure out what this message is. How concerned are you about these number stations?
- [51:11]
Brian Curtis
Was I the only one who was immediately imagining a movie trailer with Jeremy Renner as the shortwave radio operator hearing this mysterious message and being called into action? What am I hearing? And nobody would believe him when he said it? That's really fascinating.
- [51:27]
Jason Concepcion
Yeah.
- [51:28]
Brian Curtis
So the Iranians were trying to jam it.
- [51:31]
Jason Concepcion
They were trying to jam it just
- [51:33]
Brian Curtis
like they would jam radio stations coming from outside Iran. They're trying to speak to the people of Iran.
- [51:38]
Jason Concepcion
The Internet's been out there for the entire time this has been going on. So there's no other way really to connect to the country or broadcast into and out of the country except for something like this shortwave radio. Here's how it links in my mind to prediction markets. It feels all the time in increasingly weird and dangerous ways that the truth is just slightly beyond our ability to grasp it. But it's happening there. We can listen to the radio station. We can watch the bet being placed. We can watch Caroline Levitt look at her phone and get off the podium just right before the over on a particular bet about how long a press conference will go, will get triggered. You can see all these things happening, but you can't get anywhere whether it's Epstein or our bombing of Iran, the way that the, the economy works, or anything else. And what creeps me out about this stuff is it's the same thing. Is this, is this us or is this them? Could you even believe in anybody telling you the truth about it?
- [52:53]
Brian Curtis
And it's a product of a world where we have more information than we've ever had before.
- [52:56]
Jason Concepcion
Yes.
- [52:56]
Brian Curtis
But we lack the final piece of information in a lot of cases because it's unknowable or it's Just not known right now. So then we get to imagine it or we get to place a bet on what it might be. That's what you're saying?
- [53:06]
Jason Concepcion
Yes. Mm.
- [53:08]
Brian Curtis
Yeah, I think that's it. I mean, that this is a. This is a very dramatic example of that where it's like, is there. There's a double conspiracy here, that the Iranians are jamming it because they want us to think they're jamming it? Is this. It's.
- [53:20]
Jason Concepcion
I mean, it could be that.
- [53:21]
Brian Curtis
Levels. How many levels are we going here?
- [53:23]
Jason Concepcion
It could be that, you know, maybe they're trying to make it seem like that's not theirs, but also, why would they do that? All of it is incredibly opaque and concerning.
- [53:38]
Tyler Parker
Yeah, I just feel like I'm in a constant fog. Every new day brings new information that feels far above my pay grade, and I feel like an obligation to try to learn about it and understand it. And I feel my intelligence bumping up against the ceiling of what I'm capable of actually grasping. You know what I'm saying?
- [54:02]
Jason Concepcion
Do you remember the Russian illegals program from 2010? In Obama's second term. First term. Excuse me. We rounded up all these. We rounded up all these Russian immigrants who had come to the country and been living here apparently law abiding citizens doing normal work and PR and offices or whatever. But it turned out they were spies. And the way we caught them was we caught them tuning into these Russian number system radios.
- [54:41]
Brian Curtis
Tyler's taking all this in. Yeah. Various codes are going through Tyler's head right now. It.
- [54:47]
Tyler Parker
So what is the. So you talked about this little, like, what you call it? A1 pad?
- [54:54]
Jason Concepcion
A1 time pad.
- [54:55]
Tyler Parker
One time pad.
- [54:55]
Jason Concepcion
Yeah.
- [54:56]
Tyler Parker
They've got a radio there too, right.
- [54:58]
Jason Concepcion
They're listening to the radio. The numbers on the radio.
- [55:02]
Tyler Parker
And the numbers correspond with a letter.
- [55:04]
Jason Concepcion
The numbers will correspond to probably a phrase or a selection of phrases.
- [55:08]
Tyler Parker
Okay.
- [55:09]
Jason Concepcion
So the numbers come on. You circle the numbers on your pad, then you go to your little book that corresponds to what the code phrases are and you go, 320, 23, 57. And that will tell you whatever. Go to the consulate and get your next orders or whatever.
- [55:28]
Tyler Parker
And the Americans were like free pizza in the conference room and everyone that showed up was cheating on the test or whatever.
- [55:35]
Jason Concepcion
Yeah, got it.
- [55:38]
Tyler Parker
I mean, I don't got it, but got it.
- [55:43]
Jason Concepcion
How aware were you of number stations?
- [55:47]
Brian Curtis
Not at all. Not at all.
- [55:49]
Jason Concepcion
This is.
- [55:50]
Brian Curtis
This is tradecraft beyond me.
- [55:52]
Jason Concepcion
This is actually old stuff.
- [55:54]
Tyler Parker
Right?
- [55:54]
Brian Curtis
Like Le Carre.
- [55:56]
Jason Concepcion
Yeah. I mean, they've been Doing this is like. This is. This is stuff that's been going on since the Cold War, you know, since the advent of radio, really.
- [56:04]
Tyler Parker
Right. Like, what is the diff. What is. What is the difference between this and Morse code? Like, what's the Morse code?
- [56:13]
Jason Concepcion
Well, Morse code. Morse code is a. A rhythmic encoding of letters that just spells out words and letters and abbreviated words according to the rhythm of the dot and dash that is encoded in the particular.
- [56:30]
Tyler Parker
Right.
- [56:32]
Jason Concepcion
How this is different is there are a selection of orders, things, words, et cetera, that are already linked to random numbers. And those numbers are known to only one other entity, and that's the person on the other side of the radio. And that's how you receive your orders without ever getting a phone call, without ever getting on email, without ever going on Xbox Live and contact your handler, whatever the case may be. Sure. Okay.
- [57:05]
Brian Curtis
Are we ready? Are we ready to drop you into a country, Tyler? Have you operate behind enemies?
- [57:09]
Tyler Parker
Yeah, I should be fine. I just want to talk to anybody.
- [57:12]
Brian Curtis
I think he needs more training at Quantico.
- [57:14]
Tyler Parker
Yeah, probably.
- [57:15]
Jason Concepcion
Here's how it works. Handler broadcasts a number on a known frequency at a scheduled time. Agent tunes in with the consumer. Shortwave radio. You don't need any special equipment. Writes down the number groups, decodes using the one time pad, a pre shared sheet of random numbers used to convert each. The pad is. You just immediately throw it in the fireplace or whatever, burn it up, and now you have your orders. And the great thing about it is it's one way, like, you never engage with the other side. There's no way to track you unless they can use these directional radio transmitters to see that you tuned into it, which I guess is hard to do. And it's essentially unbreakable again.
- [57:54]
Tyler Parker
What a wonderful world, you know?
- [57:55]
Brian Curtis
There we go.
- [57:58]
Jason Concepcion
What is your next bet on polymarking enemy?
- [58:02]
Tyler Parker
I don't think I'll be spending too much time on there, though. I might throw some money Stephen A's way just to make him feel a little bit better.
- [58:08]
Jason Concepcion
Well, what's interesting is Stephen A at 1% and Zoran Momdani, who can't run.
- [58:13]
Brian Curtis
Ineligible to run.
- [58:14]
Jason Concepcion
Ineligible to run, is also at 1% with $30 million behind him.
- [58:21]
Brian Curtis
What were you talking about? Luring people?
- [58:24]
Jason Concepcion
This is the thing that doesn't make any sense to me. He's slightly above John Fetterman, who I think.
- [58:30]
Brian Curtis
I don't think he's going to be the Democratic.
- [58:32]
Jason Concepcion
I don't think he's going to be it either.
- [58:34]
Brian Curtis
He's also tied with LeBron James. LeBron James bet Noir 1%. Same odds as Stephen A.
- [58:40]
Jason Concepcion
Now let me ask you this. Hunter Biden also at 1% of the 1%. Okay. Of the one percents. So Dwayne the Rock Johnson, Gretchen Big, Gretch Whitmer, Cory Booker, Michelle Obama, Stephen A. Smith, Gina Raimondo, who I'm not familiar with Rhode Island. Oh, I see. Thank you. His sales would know the mayor Zoran, who again cannot run. John Fetterman, Mark Cuban, Phil Murphy, LeBron, Barack Obama, Liz Cheney, Andrew Yang, Hunter Biden. Mr. Beast. Chris Murphy.
- [59:13]
Tyler Parker
Mr. Beast is on this list?
- [59:15]
Jason Concepcion
Yes. Raphael Warnock, George Clooney, Beto o'. Rourke.
- [59:19]
Brian Curtis
Beto Beto's back.
- [59:21]
Jason Concepcion
Of the one percents, Brian, who do you rate the highest?
- [59:26]
Brian Curtis
Well, first of all, I don't rate LeBron the lowest. I'll put it that way. The highest I'd probably take. I think I would go Raphael Warnock. Was he a one?
- [59:38]
Jason Concepcion
He's a one.
- [59:39]
Brian Curtis
Yeah. Yeah. I think I would go in the Warnock Chris Murphy zone. Those would be my highest because I can imagine a little bit more. But Hunter Biden's not last. I'm gonna put it that way.
- [59:48]
Jason Concepcion
I am gonna go out on a limb here and say other than Senator Chris Murphy, I think Hunter Biden is the top 1%.
- [59:59]
Brian Curtis
Tim Walls or Hunter Biden, who has a better chance?
- [60:01]
Jason Concepcion
I think Hunter Biden. And I'm not.
- [60:04]
Brian Curtis
And I mean that leg with you on that one. Yeah.
- [60:07]
Jason Concepcion
I think Hunter Biden has cross party appeal. I can't believe I'm saying this.
- [60:14]
Brian Curtis
Hunter Biden or John Fetterman?
- [60:16]
Jason Concepcion
Hunter Biden.
- [60:17]
Brian Curtis
Yeah.
- [60:17]
Jason Concepcion
I think Hunter Biden is a straight. People think of him as a straight shooter now, but the way he's been talking about all the things he's been through.
- [60:24]
Brian Curtis
The last interview really did it. Yeah.
- [60:27]
Jason Concepcion
The Callahan interview. He's the Sean Ryan interview. Former special forces operator and right wing podcaster Sean Ryan had a wonderful, wide ranging conversation with Hunter Biden recently where you could imagine those two like broing out. Somehow. I think Hunter Biden is higher than we think.
- [60:50]
Brian Curtis
High name id.
- [60:52]
Jason Concepcion
Yes.
- [60:53]
Brian Curtis
A lot of people don't know who all these people are. They know who Hunter Biden is. He's been on Fox News every day.
- [60:58]
Jason Concepcion
He's healthy and he's vital.
- [60:59]
Brian Curtis
He's back and rested and ready.
- [61:02]
Tyler Parker
Great with computers.
- [61:03]
Jason Concepcion
Great with computers. The sex workers were all adults.
- [61:07]
Tyler Parker
Yes. I don't know that, but I'm sorry, I say yes. That's huge.
- [61:11]
Jason Concepcion
That's huge. In today's political marketplace. I think of these, I really do put them above Cory Booker.
- [61:22]
Brian Curtis
I mean, come on, we really. Cory Booker is Democratic nominee in 28 or higher.
- [61:27]
Jason Concepcion
Well, I would still say Hunter Biden. And for this reason, I think a lot of what's happening politically right now is the American electorate and particularly the kind that you can only measure with polymarket and stuff telling us, no more ladies, no more people of color. We want a white guy. Don't do that again. And so I feel like Hunter Biden, I feel like Hunter Biden has a shot. That's all I'm saying.
- [61:59]
Brian Curtis
If you had to bet somebody in the 1% zone, you're going with Hunter Biden, admittedly long shot bets.
- [62:06]
Jason Concepcion
Yeah, I would put 50 cents on Hunter Biden with absolutely no belief that he would get the nomination. But also crazier things have happened. No.
- [62:19]
Tyler Parker
Donald Trump is president for a second time. Yes, I think crazier things have happened. Yes.
- [62:24]
Brian Curtis
I like how he has a cigarette in his mouth on the picture here. Everyone else has their.
- [62:28]
Jason Concepcion
Does he really?
- [62:28]
Brian Curtis
Yeah, everyone else has their, you know, beauty shots. And he's.
- [62:33]
Jason Concepcion
Although I guess, you know what Bernie Sanders, I'd put above, I think his message, if he was just, if he was 15 years younger, he just may not run. He just may run.
- [62:41]
Brian Curtis
He's kind of taking himself out.
- [62:42]
Jason Concepcion
Yes, I agree.
- [62:43]
Brian Curtis
But yeah, I mean, look, look over list. Janie. I'm in.
- [62:48]
Producer
Yes.
- [62:49]
Jason Concepcion
Who is betting zoron guys?
- [62:51]
Brian Curtis
I don't know.
- [62:52]
Jason Concepcion
Read the fine print. He can't run.
- [62:54]
Tyler Parker
It's the same people that were betting on Jason Tate when to be league MVP before this year when he was out with an ACL injury. He's just like, some people are just like out. They think they're in it, but they're out of it. You know what I mean?
- [63:06]
Jason Concepcion
All right, let's go to our lucid score. Lucid, Brian, is our in house scoring system by which we score a particular story according to whether it has legs. Are we going to continue to talk about this story? Whether it's unintentionally comedic, Is this a funny story? Whether it's sinister, whether it has intrigue and whether it has danger. From one to four prediction markets, are we gonna keep talking about these?
- [63:42]
Brian Curtis
Four is the high end? Four is the high end on all these factors?
- [63:45]
Jason Concepcion
Yes. Four, four. Unintentional comedy.
- [63:51]
Brian Curtis
Also four, maybe four and a half.
- [63:55]
Jason Concepcion
Sinisterness. Is it sinister? Three.
- [64:00]
Brian Curtis
Strong Three, maybe three, Five.
- [64:02]
Jason Concepcion
I agree with you. This is one of those things where it feels like something's Wrong. But I'm not sure what.
- [64:08]
Brian Curtis
And it's designed so that we are not sure what.
- [64:11]
Tyler Parker
Well, I think it's. The thing y' all were talking about earlier is like, in effect, you're betting on people to die. That's bad with some of this stuff.
- [64:19]
Jason Concepcion
No, no, no. Merely leave office. Yeah.
- [64:23]
Brian Curtis
No longer. He will not fulfill his terms.
- [64:27]
Jason Concepcion
Intrigue. Is there intrigue with these stories?
- [64:30]
Brian Curtis
That's a four to me. We're talking about heads of state. You know, we're talking heads of other countries. And, of course, this is international intrigue.
- [64:38]
Jason Concepcion
And then danger. Do you see this as a story that has potentially destructive effects?
- [64:49]
Brian Curtis
I'm gonna say 3. You could easily push me to 4.
- [64:54]
Jason Concepcion
What makes it dangerous to you?
- [64:58]
Brian Curtis
Some of the reasons you stated about events being manipulated to drive markets potentially for payoffs. Treating the entirety of world events and affairs as a game.
- [65:11]
Jason Concepcion
Very concerning.
- [65:12]
Brian Curtis
To be bet on.
- [65:13]
Jason Concepcion
Yes.
- [65:14]
Brian Curtis
Not just a sporting event.
- [65:15]
Jason Concepcion
Don't love it.
- [65:16]
Brian Curtis
Don't love it. So, yeah. So maybe I'm gonna. Maybe I'm at a four, actually.
- [65:19]
Jason Concepcion
I just thought myself.
- [65:21]
Brian Curtis
Okay, okay.
- [65:22]
Jason Concepcion
Let's bump that up to a four. So that's a 19 out of 20. That is a high score.
- [65:26]
Tyler Parker
Yeah.
- [65:26]
Jason Concepcion
But one of the highest.
- [65:28]
Tyler Parker
Yeah. It's a piping hot loose in school. I can't disagree with any of that. Yeah, it feels. What's funny is everyone has been in such uproar about gambling, sports, gambling, all this stuff, and now this is a thing that you can be in any state and do it, and there is no governor on this.
- [65:51]
Jason Concepcion
What's scary to me is how close we appear to be to, like, a true assassination market or something like that.
- [65:58]
Brian Curtis
I mean, that's. I kept thinking of Deadpool.
- [66:00]
Jason Concepcion
I was.
- [66:00]
Tyler Parker
Yes.
- [66:01]
Brian Curtis
When I saw this. The old idea of a Deadpool.
- [66:03]
Jason Concepcion
And it's basically there. I mean, just word it slightly differently.
- [66:07]
Brian Curtis
Oh, yeah. We don't do death.
- [66:08]
Jason Concepcion
You don't say.
- [66:09]
Brian Curtis
Yes. We just do removal from office.
- [66:10]
Jason Concepcion
Right. They're not gonna finish their term.
- [66:12]
Brian Curtis
What are wars, though? What are ground trips? What is bombing? That means death. That's the same thing.
- [66:19]
Jason Concepcion
And so it feels as if we are just quickly approaching that point where not only can you wager on it, but I think if you were a malign enough actor, you could make sure not only does it happen, but that someone within your organization gets paid to do it.
- [66:34]
Brian Curtis
Yeah. Yeah.
- [66:37]
Jason Concepcion
Not great. Let's go to the Doom Scroll.
- [66:40]
Tyler Parker
All right, Brian. Welcome to the Doom Scroll. Happy to have you here. This is a thing where we take a Look at some current stories that are in the news that have kind of made us raised our eyebrows a little bit. We're starting off here with Billy Corgan. Do you guys see Billy in the news?
- [66:57]
Jason Concepcion
Billy Corgan of Smashing Pumpkins.
- [66:58]
Tyler Parker
Billy Corgan of Smashing Pumpkins. He feels strongly that there's a conspiracy behind rock music's decline over the past few decades. On the latest episode of his own podcast, the Magnificent Others, he started to discuss sort of the current state of the industry with his guest writer and cultural commentator Conrad Flynn. The quote is, I think, and I will say it overtly, I think that Roc has been purposely dialed down in the culture again. This gets wizard behind the curtain, right? Somebody's going to say, well, how do you know there was the wizard behind the curtain? All I know is I saw the gravity shift. But he basically goes on to talk about how metaphors there. Yeah. He goes on to assert that the CIA was involved in all of that. It. I heard. I saw someone post something to the effect of it doesn't get any more Gen Z than saying that the government is the thing that made you uncool.
- [67:58]
Jason Concepcion
I completely agree. The CIA is why nobody likes my music anymore.
- [68:05]
Tyler Parker
Did I say Gen Z?
- [68:06]
Jason Concepcion
Gen X is one of the greatest broken brain takes ever. I would love to have. Billy. Billy, if you're here, I'd love you to come on and just lay out some of your evidence, because I'm compelled.
- [68:20]
Tyler Parker
I would still be huge. It's just the government's fault.
- [68:25]
Jason Concepcion
Great story.
- [68:26]
Brian Curtis
We can blame the CIA for a lot, but
- [68:29]
Tyler Parker
do you think there's. Do you think there's any merit to that at all?
- [68:34]
Jason Concepcion
Do I think that there is any merit in the CIA having, like a grunge working group that's like, we gotta stop this music now.
- [68:44]
Tyler Parker
We want rap to be on top.
- [68:46]
Jason Concepcion
We gotta have it on top. For reasons. I don't know what would be the reasons be. I'm unclear to what the geopolitical reasons are, but frankly, the presidency, United States of America, the band Smashing Pumpkins, Pearl Jam, and others are just not. They're not fitting what we're trying to do globally. So they must fall.
- [69:08]
Tyler Parker
It doesn't feel like a very strong case by Bill, but I know that the CIA has dabbled in some rock in the past. What Scorpion or whoever that band was that they. The winds of change.
- [69:20]
Jason Concepcion
I will say that I was less convinced. Whatever. We don't have to go into the winds of change. The evidence behind that seemed very spotty as well. Continue.
- [69:29]
Tyler Parker
All right, Rush Limbaugh and Jim Morrison. Not sure if you've ever noticed, but they kind of. Jim Morrison of the Doors. They kind of look alike. This came back into the news. This came back into the news. It first popped up about four years ago, but it's sort of picked up some steam recently. Once you see. And maybe, maybe Justin will be able to put up one of the little videos of this.
- [69:55]
Brian Curtis
It's not that crazy.
- [69:56]
Tyler Parker
It's not that crazy. Once you see it. I mean the, the conspiracy theorists that really prescribed to this one. The idea is that Morrison was a CIA agent who faked his own death in 1971 and then pops up 13 years later as a talk radio host on KFBK in Sacramento, California, blowing hard about conservative issues. Yes. So his body was supposedly discovered in a bathtub in Paris back in July of 71 when he was 27. The official cause was listed as heart failure, but no autopsy was performed. So that's kind of fueled the speculation. Witness protection, I don't know, but that's been in the news.
- [70:47]
Jason Concepcion
What do we know about where rush was in the 70s?
- [70:51]
Tyler Parker
That's a good question.
- [70:54]
Jason Concepcion
That would be my first question is like, how do we figure out proof of life for Rush Limbaugh? Pre1971?
- [71:04]
Tyler Parker
Yeah, we need to look into.
- [71:05]
Jason Concepcion
Can we put him and Jim Morrison in the same place?
- [71:08]
Tyler Parker
Sorry, producer interrupting here. Please.
- [71:11]
Jason Concepcion
Do you want to know when Rush's radio career began? Sure. February 1971. Interesting. So it almost lines up.
- [71:21]
Tyler Parker
Interesting.
- [71:22]
Jason Concepcion
You'd think there'd be a bigger cooling off period. You've got one of the most famous rock and roll stars in the world has passed away.
- [71:29]
Tyler Parker
Yeah.
- [71:29]
Jason Concepcion
Wouldn't you let it. Just kind of let it cool off for a second before you pop back up?
- [71:34]
Tyler Parker
Yeah.
- [71:35]
Brian Curtis
I would do Ted Kennedy updates,
- [71:38]
Jason Concepcion
but like I guess on radio nobody's seeing you. It's interesting. And they do look quite alike.
- [71:45]
Tyler Parker
The pictures are odd.
- [71:47]
Brian Curtis
Jim Morrison is fuller of face, more full of face than I remember.
- [71:50]
Tyler Parker
Yes, same.
- [71:51]
Jason Concepcion
Particularly late in his life.
- [71:53]
Brian Curtis
Yeah. Anyway, please, I'm sorry.
- [71:55]
Tyler Parker
Okay. And the last one, this was the one that was very exciting for me. In particular, we've got some Bigfoot investigators in Ohio tracking an unprecedented cluster of activity. Yes. In, in Portage County, Ohio. There was about 30 miles south of Cleveland. In a report that was, that was published on Monday, there were five separate, quote, highly high credibility accounts of Bigfoot sightings over a 96 year period in the same region. Okay, I'll go through some of these.
- [72:29]
Jason Concepcion
Yeah, please.
- [72:31]
Tyler Parker
March 6, the local researcher in Mantua Center. Apologies Ohians if I get that wrong quote. This local Researcher observed a 9 foot tall brown male standing 120 yards away near State Route 44. This is the best part. The creature displayed high situational awareness and retreated at high speed.
- [73:01]
Brian Curtis
Did he do the three cone drill on his way back into the woods?
- [73:04]
Tyler Parker
The first thing I thought of was Madden and like the awareness for a second. Yeah. A second one in the same area. A second witness reported an eight foot figure with long arms and dark brown hair on the very next day on March 7 before a forest hush. A forest hush, which is when the forest just goes completely silent.
- [73:30]
Jason Concepcion
Okay.
- [73:31]
Tyler Parker
Apparently the witness heard deep vibrating grunts and heavy rhythmic footfall and later claims to have found oversized muddy footprints at the location as their tangible proof.
- [73:44]
Jason Concepcion
Now I guess my question would be is this. I was not aware of Ohio as kind of like a cryptid hotbed for Bigfoot, big feet and other similar creatures. I always thought it was the Pacific Northwest, but. So is this new?
- [74:01]
Tyler Parker
Is this a new issue that I don't know. I mean I know it's not just specific to because there's like parts like areas of like southern Oklahoma and stuff and like kind of like northern Texas a little bit where you can find some people that claim to have seen, you know, Bigfoot and stuff too. I don't know where all the hot Bigfoot areas are where he likes to hang. But yeah, it, the, the, the, the wildest one was like in Windham, Ohio yesterday.
- [74:31]
Jason Concepcion
Wow.
- [74:31]
Tyler Parker
At around 6pm a homeowner observed a six foot brown figure running with an incredibly long stride at a dead end near the wood line. The, the witness said, I know what I saw, but I don't know what I saw.
- [74:45]
Jason Concepcion
I love it. And we don't have this on the ring camera or anything.
- [74:49]
Tyler Parker
No.
- [74:49]
Jason Concepcion
My thing about the. I wish there was a Bigfoot. I really want there to be.
- [74:54]
Tyler Parker
Yeah, I would love it.
- [74:56]
Jason Concepcion
I think it would be awesome if there was intelligent human adjacent species in the woods that have managed to hide for apparently centuries from modern eyes. But like, where's the big Bigfoot craps? You know, where's the. Where's the nesting site, the stool? Where is this? Where is the fecal matter?
- [75:18]
Tyler Parker
There are holes. There are holes in this theory. I think in the Bigfoot theory. I think you might have stumbled on something. Yeah. I'm not sure that it's totally legitimate. There was one and I'm wrong. That, that one, the, the one that happened in Windham at 6pm that was that was also on on March 9, the one that happened. And at 4am like this morning.
- [75:40]
Jason Concepcion
Wow.
- [75:41]
Tyler Parker
Homeowner left their German shepherd out on a chain. The dog instantly launched itself into a high aggression lunge toward the wood line when a huge black shadow, believed to be 8-10ft tall crashes through the undergrowth, according to a witness. The witness was clear that it was quote, way bigger than a bear. The German shepherd was reportedly trembling with fear once it was safely back inside the home. So that was the one from this morning, basically.
- [76:13]
Jason Concepcion
Do you have a favorite Cryptid?
- [76:15]
Tyler Parker
A favorite what?
- [76:16]
Jason Concepcion
A favorite favorite. Possibly not real animal species. Mysterious animal species.
- [76:24]
Tyler Parker
Oh. I mean I do love me some Bigfoot, but like that's the right answer to the question.
- [76:29]
Brian Curtis
I mean it's American.
- [76:31]
Jason Concepcion
Yeah, yeah, that's true.
- [76:32]
Brian Curtis
I mean I don't want any of this Anglophilia to like the Loch Ness monster. It's like the old homegrown Bigfoot.
- [76:38]
Jason Concepcion
My favorite has always been the Mokele Mbembe.
- [76:41]
Brian Curtis
Okay.
- [76:42]
Tyler Parker
Yeah. Remind me of that one.
- [76:43]
Jason Concepcion
Mokele Mbembe is cryptid. Zoologists will tell you that it is some sort of brontosaurus or something that lives deep in the jungles of Congo and Cameroon and that there are folkloric tales of the locals in the area. Talk about this long necked beast that walks kind of like an elephant but is much longer.
- [77:10]
Tyler Parker
That sounds great.
- [77:11]
Brian Curtis
That sounds pretty badass.
- [77:12]
Tyler Parker
The other, the other, like sort of recent one. And I'm not even sure if this qualifies as a cryptid, but when all the people who were experiencing that blizzard like a month ago or whatever said, oh, this is. They're trying to freeze the Leviathan again because it's, it's at risk of becoming unthawed or whatever.
- [77:34]
Jason Concepcion
Right. Because if the Leviathan. If the Leviathan thaws out, that's the end of days.
- [77:40]
Tyler Parker
Yes, because the Leviathan can eat the world.
- [77:42]
Jason Concepcion
That's right.
- [77:43]
Tyler Parker
Yeah.
- [77:43]
Jason Concepcion
Well, Brian, I'm hoping to hear you guys touch on some of this on the press box this week. It's wonderful to have you here.
- [77:53]
Brian Curtis
I don't know what we're going to add, honestly via the thing. It's so much fun to be here. Thanks for having me.
- [77:59]
Tyler Parker
Thanks for coming, man.
- [77:59]
Jason Concepcion
See you next week. Want to see your brand on tv? Roku Ads manager makes it easy to launch targeted ad campaigns in minutes, track results in real time and drive on screen purchases with just a click of the Roku remote. Get a $500 match on your first $500 spent with code ROKU500@ads.roku.com that's code R O K U500ads.roku.com Terms apply.