← Unfiltered Soccer with Landon Donovan and Tim Howard
Unfiltered Soccer with Landon Donovan and Tim Howard
USMNT Path to the World Cup Final | Unfiltered Soccer
00:15:41
Loading summary
Transcript1 lines
- [00:14]
A
This bonus content is brought to you by Coca Cola and Carnival Cruise Line. We are here in Long Beach, California. Beautiful sunny day on the Carnival Radiance cruise ship. The World cup is drawing closer and it's always fun to go through all the permutations, all the possibilities of what your run could look like to the final. So I've got my trusty iPad here. I'm going to walk you guys through all the different scenarios. It's a lot, so stick with me here. Even when we had 32 teams, it was a complicated process to get through. Now there are 48 teams, so it's even more complicated. So we're going to take you through all the paths. If the US Fails, finishes first, right? If we finish second, okay, God forbid we finish third. There's still a path to get to the final there. It'll be more difficult, but we're going to walk you through all that. Just a note, these projections are based on the current FIFA world rankings. So we're going to assume the higher team wins in all these scenarios to get who we're going to play against. Now, unlikely that happens in actuality, but we're going to walk through that and see what that looks like. All right, so group stage matches for the US that begins Friday, June 12th here in LA against Paraguay, then go up to Seattle June 19th on a Friday as well to play Australia. Come back home here to Los Angeles to play Turkey 8 on Thursday, June 25. So what is the likeliest outcome for this team, in my opinion? I believe we beat Paraguay. I believe we beat Australia. The Turkey game is tricky. They're a much better team than people realize, so I could see them also winning both of their games. And then it's a game we could win, it's a game we could lose. And probably the most likely outcome would be a draw. So you could see a scenario where we're both on seven points. They have. They have to go down to a tiebreaker, decide who finishes first, who finishes second. So I would say 50, 50 chance we finish first or second in the group. So let's assume what we all want is that we win Group D. Now, again, all of these projected matchups are based on the higher ranked team advancing out of the group in position 1, 2 and 3. So the round of 32 would then be July 1st in San Francisco. You see what they're doing there. We don't have to travel far, which is nice. So if you win your group, you don't have to travel far. The men's national team would then play a third place team from either Stick with me here, B, E, F, I or J. And that won't be known until after the group stage. It's not predetermined. There's a whole scenario that they have to go through. So there are 495 different scenarios for which third place team will face the Group D winner. In 329 of those, it will be Group B's third place team. Reminder for group B that consists of Switzerland, Canada, Qatar and Bosnia Herzegovina. So if the groups finish in order of the current FIFA world rankings, the third place teams in those respective groups would be Qatar, Ivory Coast, Sweden, Norway or Algeria. Okay, so a lot of possibilities here. What are the matchups we would want to avoid? Number 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 10 is Norway. Norway would be a horrible team to place to face in the round of 32. It is likely because they're in a very difficult group with France and Senegal, so they could finish third. That would be a very difficult game for us, mostly because of their attacking threats. They have Erling, Holland, Sorlot and Odegaard, who are three dynamic, dynamic attacking players that would be very challenging for our U.S. defense. The other one I would say we want to avoid is Canada. I have memories of 2002 World cup playing in around a 16 game against Mexico. And in theory, Mexico was a top 10, top 11 team in the country, but it was a team we knew well. And when you know a team well, that gives you a lot of confidence going into that game. So if we had played a different team that we didn't know as well, we probably would have struggled. But Mexico we knew we could beat. We were on neutral ground. We weren't in Mexico City with the altitude and the smog. It was a team we knew we could beat. So if Canada were to come to San Francisco and play against us, that would be a very difficult matchup. That would be basically a World cup final for Jesse Marsh, the Canadian head coach, because he would feel aggrieved that he didn't get the US job. So I think that would be a bit of a nightmare scenario. Now, who would we want to face? Algeria. I know a little bit about our history playing Algeria. And the other one, probably Qatar. I think Qatar is a team we could absolutely beat. So that would be the dream scenario. Us, Qatar in San Francisco for a chance to advance to the round of 16. Okay, so let's say we get Qatar, we beat Qatar, we're in the round of 16. July 6th back in Seattle, amazing atmosphere. It would be rocking there. Our likeliest opponent there, again, based on FIFA rankings and the projections, would be Belgium. Now, this could be very interesting because we just played Belgium. We lost 51 to Belgium in a friendly. Is that good or is that bad? It's hard to know. It's hard for a team to repeat that type of performance in a positive way. If you're Belgium. For our American guys, it would feel like they would feel a little scared for this matchup against Belgium. But given all the possibilities, I believe Belgium is a team we could beat. So that is the most likely opponent. That would be a really interesting storyline. So let's assume, for sake of the argument, we beat Belgium in Seattle. What's next back here in LA? Quarterfinal, July 10th. Most likely opponent, the team I picked to win the World Cup, Spain. So if we win the group, we will have played in LA, Seattle, LA, San Francisco and LA. Not a lot of travel, which is amazing. All in the time, same time zone. But now you have to play Spain. So I believe they're the best team in the world. If Lamina Mal is healthy, if Nico Williams is healthy, all their attacking talent, they're a very good team. Together, this could be very tough, but you never know. So for sake of argument, we beat Spain. We are now headed to the semifinals, July 14 in the heat of Dallas, Texas. Although I think it's an indoor stadium, so it'll be okay. Likeliest opponent there, the French. France, I think very, very, very good bet to get to this point in the tournament. They're currently the number one ranked team in the world. This would be as big a challenge as we could face. Their attacking talent is endless. They have 10, 12, 14 players who are probably better than our best attacking player. That's just the reality. The reality. It doesn't mean they're a better team, but that's the reality. So this would have been. This would be an insane opponent to have and a lot of fun. I will say this, a lot of our players play in France. A lot of our players play in Spain, Germany, England. We will not be intimidated by them. Absolutely not. Because a lot of the players will have played against them, but they are a very good team. So this would be a very difficult opponent. Next, let's assume we get out of Dallas, we beat France, and we head to the World cup final in East Rutherford, New Jersey, where we would most likely face Lionel Messi in Argentina. Let's just stop for a second, Think about this. I think people forget about this. We get to witness, in my opinion, the best player in the history of the sport for play in Major League Soccer every week. Can you imagine a scenario now where it's the US Versus Argentina in New Jersey, sold out stadium, playing against the best player in the history of the planet for a chance to win a World Cup? Now, I'm starting to dream and I'm getting a little excited, but that would absolutely be the most watched sporting event in the history of the planet, certainly in the history of our country. It would be phenomenal. So I'm dreaming and let's hope we get there. So those are the scenarios if we were to finish first, the most likely scenarios, and let's hope that happens. All right, so those were the scenarios for first place if the U.S. men's National Team finishes in second place. Now, don't freak out. I'm going to show you why it's going to sound crazy. This might actually be a better path for us. So if we finish in second. Now, from a travel standpoint, not as good. However, from an opponent standpoint, this could be interesting. So listen up. July 3rd, the day before our 250th anniversary as a country in Dallas, Texas. Most likely opponent based on the higher ranked team advancing would be Iran, runner up from group G. Other possibilities in group G G that could be runners up, Belgium, Egypt, New Zealand. But the most likely based on FIFA rankings would be Iran. That would be interesting. Now, this scenario is fairly realistic. There's a scenario where we finish second, they finish second. The challenge for the team, of course, would be how do you keep all the exterior noise out and how do you deal with just the opponent. But we are a better team than Iran. And so having a chance to go to a round of 16 against Iran, I like our chances. Okay, so let's assume we beat Iran. We move on to the round of 16. Again, from a travel standpoint, not ideal. But from an opponent Standpoint, interesting. July 7th in Atlanta against Argentina. Now, before you get all crazy, Lionel Messi, all this, Argentina is a team we can beat. I don't think they're as good as Portugal. I don't think they're as good as Spain. I don't think they're as good as France. They are good, unequivocally, but it is a team we can beat. Of course, Lionel Messi is going to be a huge talking point if this happens. He will be 38 years old, having already traveled through a bunch of the country with the heat and the travel and playing a lot of games. It's going to be a challenge for sure. Now, again, they're a good team, but a team we can beat. Of course, this would be a dream scenario for Mauricio Pochettino, playing against his home country in a round of 16 with a chance to go to the quarterfinals. Okay, so I'm going to dream again. We beat Argentina in Atlanta. We head to the quarterfinals July 11 in Kansas City, Missouri, against the next best player in the world for the last two decades, Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal. Now, a lot of people, including myself, think Portugal could be a sleeper team in this World Cup. But I will say, yes, they are a good team. We have played them recently. We played them to a 2 nothing loss in the friendlies. They're also a team we can beat. Very good team. But we were in that game and had a chance to win that game. So they wouldn't scare me as an opponent the way France or Spain would. So again, is it ideal? No. But you're now you're in a quarterfinal, so you're going to play great teams. Other potential matchups, depending on how things go, could be Switzerland, a very good team, but very beatable, and Colombia, very good team, but very beatable. So I like this pathway actually a little bit better than finishing in first place. Let's dream again. We get out of Kansas City, we win the quarterfinal matchup, and now we are moving on to the semifinals. Back in Atlanta, Georgia, most likely opponent, the Brits, England. So, interesting fact, we have never lost to the English in a World Cup. Bet you didn't know that in 1950. We beat them. We tied them in 2002. I was on the field that day. And we tied them in 2022. So you think England and all the history and all the players, it's not a team we fear at all. And oh, by the way, many, many, many of our players either have played in the Premier League or play now in the Premier League. So this would be an ideal matchup in the semifinal. Other possible matchups at this point. We could face Brazil or we could face Mexico. That would be interesting. Okay, so let's dream. Let's say we play Mexico there and we beat Mexico, maybe 20 or something. We head to the final and we play in East Rutherford, New Jersey on July 19th. Most likely opponent would be France. Other possibility would be Spain. I actually think Spain would beat France in a matchup. So this would be, again, an amazing matchup, an amazing game, a chance to win a World cup in our home country, playing either France Or Spain. Let's keep dreaming. Those are the scenarios if we finish second in the group. And I actually like that scenario better than if we finish first. All right, doomsday hits. We finished third. The world's falling apart. U.S. soccer is ruined forever. All the things. But here's the reality of what could happen. In the round of 32, we would face one of three group winners. Group E, Group I. Group Group K. Group E. The likeliest opponent, again based on FIFA rankings, would be the Germans. Germany. Not a good matchup for us. Group I. Likeliest opponent, France. Not a good matchup for us. Group K, likeliest opponent, Portugal. So you see where this is going. Those are all teams that we would not be favored against. And this would be a doomsday scenario. Not impossible, but a doomsday scenario. There are so many potential possibilities after that. We're not even going to go into that. Let's hope this is not a thing. We don't have to talk about it after today. But that's the scenario if we finish third and end up in the round of 32 against one of those group winners. All right. So my hot take. We get to the quarterfinals at least. And hopefully, hopefully much further. Hot takes, cold Coke, open seas. Your Carnival Cruise is waiting. Visit carnival.com unfiltered for your chance to win a trip on a beautiful Carnival Cruise.