Unhedged Podcast: "DIY Data"

Host: Katie Martin (Financial Times)
Guest: Rob Armstrong (Financial Times)
Date: November 6, 2025

Episode Overview

With an ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown causing a severe shortage of official economic data, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong dig into how investors, journalists, and policymakers are using alternative, "DIY" data sources to understand what’s truly happening in the economy. They explore the reliability of such makeshift data, discuss the narrative holes left by missing reports, and reflect on the broader implications for financial markets.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Federal Data Blackout and Its Consequences

• Shutdown Effect: The U.S. government shutdown has halted the publication of most official economic data, especially key indicators like inflation and jobs reports ([00:00]-[04:34]).
  • “We're not flying entirely blind, but we are wearing aviator shades and it's already dark in the blackout.” — Katie Martin [00:22]
• Contextual Vacuum: Lacking this data, market participants are falling back on anecdotes and private sources, leading to an incomplete and sometimes contradictory mosaic of the economy.
  • Rob Armstrong notes, “We're sort of trapped in anecdote land in some way.” [03:26]

2. The Problem with Alternative (“DIY”) Data

• Unreliable Patchwork: Among private sources:
  • Layoff statistics from Challenger, Gray & Christmas saw a huge spike in announced job cuts in October ([06:34]-[07:27]).
    • “US-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, up 175% from the 55,597 cuts announced in October 2024.” — Rob Armstrong reading from the Challenger Report [06:59]
  • ADP private payrolls data, however, showed a net jobs gain in the same month ([07:56]-[08:08]).
    • “They said private employers in the US added 42,000 jobs in October, which was more than expected.” — Katie Martin [07:57]
  • Official initial jobless claims are still available, showing stability (220,000–240,000 weekly new claims) ([08:14]-[10:10]).
  • Contradictions: Rob points out the divergence: huge layoffs reported, but little change in jobless claims—a confusing picture [09:01].

3. Insider Resources & Big Firms’ “Edge”

• Well-resourced Investors: Large investment firms can cobble together their own datasets from the myriad companies they invest in, creating better estimates than regular investors can access ([16:26]).
  • “If you're a really big bank or if you're a really big investment firm, you might have a bit of an edge here because you just have that extra data that you're gathering.” — Katie Martin [16:26]

4. Company Anecdotes and Consumer Data

• Earnings Call Snapshots: With official data scarce, analysts are parsing corporate earnings calls for clues:
  • Chipotle CEO highlighted declining customer visits among lower/middle-income groups, particularly ages 25-35, believing the trend is industry-wide ([11:55]-[13:41]).
    • “We believe that this guest, with a household income below $100,000 ... is dining out less due to concerns about the economy and inflation.” — Scott Boatwright, quoted by Rob Armstrong [12:46]
  • Colgate Palmolive’s CEO observed that sales now spike around employees’ payday cycles, especially for non-premium items, suggesting financial strain even in basic goods purchases ([13:41]).
• Consumer Behavior Trend: Move away from premium brands towards discount and private-label products; even home-manufacturing (e.g., Katie’s husband making dishwasher tablets) is on the rise ([14:30]-[15:40]).
  • Humorous aside:
    • “He hasn't bought a Porsche or had an affair ... if his middle-aged sin is making dishwasher tablets, I think that's a good sign for your marriage, Katie.” — Rob Armstrong [15:23]

5. Narrative Bias & Journalistic Challenges

• Bias Toward Bad News: Lacking data, journalists may overemphasize negative anecdotes, missing out on positive signals ([17:26]).
  • “It's always easier to write the story about the bad news ... But it's very important in moments of uncertainty like this that we think, okay, where’s the good news? ... when the official data isn’t there, we become even more subject to our biases.” — Rob Armstrong [17:26]

6. Survey Data & Mysteries Remaining

• ISM Surveys: Business sentiment data (from the Institute of Supply Management) still arrives, echoing mixed signals—strong orders but little new hiring ([18:29]-[19:13]).
  • “New orders, which is like, are you getting new business? That was up strongly ... Employment down. And that's kind of like the mystery of the US Economy right there.” — Rob Armstrong [18:47]
• The Powell Approach: Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell’s “driving in the fog” guidance—be cautious without clear data ([19:14]-[20:32]).
  • “When you’re driving in the fog, you slow down.” — Quoting Jay Powell [19:50]

7. Where Does This Leave Investors?

• Conservative Stance: Earnings and revenues are holding up, jobless claims stable—so, while it's "dark and foggy," the outlook is probably OK ([20:44]-[21:15]).
  • “For me, feeling my way around the fog, the kind of light in the distance is reported revenues and earnings have been pretty good ... it doesn't look that bad.” — Rob Armstrong [20:44–21:07]
  • “So it's dark, it's foggy and we've got sunglasses on, but we think things are probably okay.” — Katie Martin [21:15]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Data Blackout:

  • “Does the US Economy really exist?” — Katie Martin, tongue-in-cheek [02:44]
  • “We’re not flying entirely blind, but we are wearing aviator shades and it’s already dark in the blackout.” — Katie Martin [00:22]

• On Alternative Data Chaos:

  • “For every CEO who has to go up in front of all the mean people on the conference call and explain, while their results weren’t very good, it is easier for them to say, 'boy, the consumer is soft and the economy is getting worse' than it is for them to say, 'man, we really dropped the ball this quarter.'” — Rob Armstrong [15:49]

• On Household Economizing (Humor):

  • “My husband has just started making his own dishwasher tablets.” — Katie Martin [14:30]
  • “If his middle-aged sin is making dishwasher tablets, I think that's a good sign for your marriage, Katie.” — Rob Armstrong [15:23]

• On Narrative Limitations:

  • “When the official data isn’t there, we become even more subject to our biases.” — Rob Armstrong [17:26]

• On Market Navigation:

  • “We tend to see monsters in the dark.” — Rob Armstrong [21:00]

Key Timestamps of Major Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |------------------------------------------------|-------------------| | Data blackout explained, government context | 00:00 – 04:34 | | Challenger layoffs & ADP jobs data clash | 06:24 – 08:08 | | Initial jobless claims and data gathering | 08:14 – 10:10 | | Investor/institutional DIY data approaches | 16:26 | | Company anecdotes: Chipotle & Colgate | 11:55 – 13:41 | | Consumer behavior & humor segment | 14:30 – 15:49 | | ISM survey findings | 18:29 – 19:13 | | Powell’s “driving in the fog” guidance | 19:14 – 20:32 | | Episode conclusion | 20:44 – 21:27 |

Long/Short Segment

• Rob: Short — Flying taxis as the next big airport shuttle; predicts they won’t be practical or affordable soon ([22:20–23:45]).
  • “I fearlessly predict ... that in my working life, people will not take flying taxis to the airport in New York City.” — Rob Armstrong [22:54]
• Katie: Short — Internet hot takes about the UK supposedly defaulting on its debt ([23:53–24:22]).
  • “We are not going to default on our debt. Come on now, be serious.” — Katie Martin [23:53]

Conclusion

Summary:
With official U.S. economic data "blacked out," market participants are forced to navigate using a messy patchwork of anecdotal reports, private surveys, and company insights. While the picture is unsettling and incomplete—like "driving in the dark with sunglasses on"—corporate earnings and jobless claims suggest the economy is probably stable. The hosts remind listeners to be wary of bias and not rush to doom-laden conclusions in times of uncertainty. Ultimately, caution, humility, and a broad view are urged until full data returns.