Podcast Summary: Unhedged – "Gold, Silver and Crypto"
Date: December 16, 2025
Hosts: Katie Martin (Markets Columnist, Financial Times), Rob Armstrong (President, Unhedged Newsletter)
Episode Overview
This lively episode examines the dramatic surge in precious metals, focusing on gold and silver’s extraordinary price increases in 2025 and their broader financial and psychological significance. Katie and Rob consider whether the silver rally is a signal of market fear, exuberance, or just classic speculation—and why bitcoin isn’t mirroring this momentum. The discussion weaves together trading quirks, industrial demand, central bank moves, and the ever-present role of sentiment and fear, with the duo’s signature blend of sharp analysis and irreverent banter.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Silver and Gold: Spectacular Rallies
- Silver’s Outperformance:
- Silver has soared ~120% this year to ~$64/ounce, outperforming gold’s ~60% rise (now ~$4,300/ounce).
- Katie: “Silver fever, boys and girls. Get on board.” [00:36]
- Personal Windfall:
- Rob shares a personal anecdote about selling family silver amid record prices: "It's two strange Victorian teapots, a set of teaspoons and a ladle ... I'm rolling around in my hundreds here." [02:36]
- Speculation and Market Thinness:
- Rob notes silver's thinner market versus gold: “When the speculative bug or FOMO falls over the silver market, that market is going to react a lot more strongly because it's less liquid and therefore more sensitive to incremental demand.” [03:07]
2. Psychology and Perception of Alternative Assets
- Gold's Evolution:
- Gold attracts both mainstream attention (especially from central banks) and "a fairly deep bench of slightly strange people.” [03:41] (Katie)
- Silver’s Lure for the Fringe:
- Silver is frequently advertised on “wackadoodle websites” catering to conspiracy-minded investors.
- Katie: “Silver is right up there … they always have adverts on them for silver. This is like a thing.” [03:41]
- Bitcoin’s Place:
- Katie: "Bitcoin … almost entirely a thing that exists for opportunists and the conspiracy minded.” [03:41]
3. Institutional Vs. Retail Demand
- Professional Investors:
- Bitcoin is largely ignored by institutions, while gold is suddenly on their radar:
“They do care about gold. Now, in a way that they haven't for years … But silver never, ever, ever comes up in conversation with investors and suddenly it's just jumped so much.” [05:21]
- Bitcoin is largely ignored by institutions, while gold is suddenly on their radar:
4. Industrial Demand & Commodities Context
- Silver's Mixed Role:
- Silver’s industrial applications (solar panels, electronics) differentiate it from gold, rendering its market dynamics more cyclical. [06:43]
- Copper Connection:
- “Dr. Copper” is rallying, but primarily due to supply disruptions, not booming demand, highlighting how commodity rallies can be about scarcity as much as sentiment. [07:28]
- Silver Inventories and US Tariffs:
- Katie references Leslie Hook’s report that US inventories are "about three times the size of their historic average because people are stocking up on silver just in case they fall in scope of tariffs." [09:40]
5. Central Banks and Gold: The 'Despot's Friend'
- Central Bank Policy Drivers:
- The gold rally began with central banks shifting reserves away from the US dollar, influenced by sanctions against Russia post-Ukraine invasion.
- Rob: “Gold: the despot’s friend.” [10:25]
- Silver's Divergence:
- Central banks’ demand is not a factor for silver this time. Instead, strong physical demand (especially from India and the solar sector), speculative behavior, and supply factors matter more. [10:28]
6. Speculation, Sentiment, and the ‘Ride Line’ Mentality
- Momentum Buying:
- Katie relates a telling anecdote: “There was so much demand for buying gold on the Royal Mint website... that they had to institute a queuing system ... while Strictly Come Dancing was on TV.” [11:51]
- Professional and Retail Chasing:
- Rob: “There’s a whole class of professional investor who is a momentum investor. And we know ... prices that are rising tend to keep rising.” [12:28]
7. Bitcoin: The Outlier
- Bitcoin’s 2025 Slump:
- Despite the speculative fever elsewhere, bitcoin slid from $125,000 to $87,000.
- Rob speculates high leverage played a role: “Perhaps the bitcoin trades are more leveraged ... and somebody got a margin call or a bunch of people got margin calls... off to the races.” [13:27]
- Michael Saylor & Market Fears:
- The mere suggestion that Saylor (MicroStrategy) might sell some bitcoin dents prices.
- Katie: “He has been ... ‘you take this bitcoin from my cold, dead hands’ ... just the suggestion that he might sell ... has been enough to help depress the price.” [15:14]
8. Sentiment Indicators: Euphoric, but Not Extreme
- Levkovich Index:
- Rob cites Citigroup’s sentiment measure, which has climbed above “euphoria.” [15:45]
- Katie's Benchmark:
- The Bank of America fund manager survey: cash allocations are at record lows, indicating “people are seeking safety at a vanishing rate.” [16:57]
- Bubble Containment:
- Rob notes “peripheral” AI and tech stocks like Oracle and Broadcom have struggled, suggesting not all assets are euphorically bid up. [18:19]
- Warning on Sentiment:
- Rob: “Sentiment is a contrary indicator ... When everyone is miserable, that’s when you should buy. That’s when everyone is too, too, too, too happy, that’s when you should sell.” [19:28]
- Closing Tone:
- Katie: “Merry Christmas everyone. Please be a tiny bit more miserable for Rob.” [20:12]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On Silver’s Surreal Rise:
- Katie: "Silver fever, boys and girls. Get on board." [00:36]
- Speculative Wildness:
- Katie: “If you look at ... wackadoodle websites that are convinced there's a shadowy cabal ... they always have adverts on them for silver.” [03:41]
- Market Thinness and Risk:
- Rob: “When the speculative bug or the shadow of FOMO falls over the silver market, that market is going to react a lot more strongly because it's less liquid and therefore more sensitive to incremental demand.” [03:07]
- On Central Banks and Gold:
- Rob: “Gold: the despot’s friend.” [10:25]
- On Momentum:
- Katie: “Line go up, get online and off we go. Yeah, ride line. I mean, I think ride line is a really underrated factor here.” [11:51]
- On Bitcoin’s Emotional Volatility:
- Rob: “It does show you what an emotional asset bitcoin is.” [15:45]
- Warning for the Euphoria:
- Rob: "Sentiment is a contrary indicator ... When everyone is miserable, that’s when you should buy. That’s when everyone is too, too, too, too happy, that’s when you should sell." [19:28]
- Christmas Wishes, Unhedged-style:
- Katie: “Merry Christmas everyone. Please be a tiny bit more miserable for Rob.” [20:12]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- [00:36] – Introduction & stunning year for silver and gold
- [02:07] – Rob’s family silver windfall anecdote
- [03:07] – Why silver is more volatile—market liquidity explained
- [03:41] – Cultural perceptions of gold, silver, and bitcoin
- [05:21] – How institutions think about gold, silver, and bitcoin
- [06:43] – Silver’s industrial demand and related markets (copper)
- [09:40] – Supply factors, tariffs, and silver inventories
- [10:25] – Gold as a central bank reserve and the Ukraine war’s legacy
- [11:51] – Anecdotes on speculative buying and momentum chasing
- [13:07] – Bitcoin’s underperformance discussed
- [15:45] – Market sentiment: the Levkovich Index and euphoria
- [16:57] – Fund manager survey: record low cash allocations
- [18:19] – Not all asset classes are soaring; exceptions in AI stocks
- [19:28] – Contrarian sentiment advice
- [21:11] – “Long Short” segment: Rob’s nostalgia for Christmas goose, Katie’s pastry improvements
Tone & Style
The tone is witty, candid, and laced with sarcasm and self-deprecation. Katie often pokes fun at both market participants and herself, while Rob supplies dry humor and intellectual curiosity. Their repartee keeps technical discussions accessible and engaging, punctuating analysis with real-world anecdotes and holiday spirit.
Conclusion
This episode of Unhedged is a whirlwind tour through the weird, exuberant world of 2025 asset rallies, where silver outshines gold, bitcoin lags, and market sentiment is running hot. The hosts blend deep financial insight with human stories and skepticism, making it as entertaining as it is enlightening for anyone interested in what’s really driving financial markets right now.