B (2:37)

Well, for a long time the dollar was a kind of one way bet and you bought US assets which for the last 20 years have been going up pretty steadily and the dollar rarely if ever hurt you. Those two Facts are connected, of course. When there's a lot of capital flow into the United states to buy U.S. assets, those assets go up and investors have to buy the dollar in order to purchase them. So that creates support under the dollar. But starting in the very beginning of this year, the dollar has not been so good. And it was like everyone simultaneously woke up to the fact that if you live abroad and you buy American assets, you are in fact taking currency risk. It is not a neutral position, currency wise. If you're sitting in America and you buy, I don't know, Thai stocks, you know perfectly well you better think about the, the Thai bot. You don't naturally think about it in this environment, about the dollar until the dollar falls 10%, which between January and June it did. Which is a pretty big move for the dollar.

A (3:48)

It is a pretty big move. And so there was some very nice research that everyone was talking about last week from George Saravelos over at Deutsche bank, who we should get on this show at some point. But anyway, he was saying that about the start of this year, hedging rates in U.S. assets. So the amount of dollar exposure that investors were hedging when they were buying US Stocks at the start of this year was roughly zero. Like, nobody bothered because as, as you were just saying, Rob, like, why would you. The stocks go up, the dollar goes up, you win twice. Everybody's happy now more than 80% of inflows into the US are hedged. That's massive. That's a total switcheroo, a total turning on its head of everything we know to be right and true about, about markets. Like, there's clearly some deep unease here.

B (4:39)

There's some unease. I'm going to play the role I always play on this show and try to defend poor old America from the mean attacks from the clever British lady. So the United States is starting a cycle of interest rate cuts, or at least so the market thinks and the Fed has hinted.

A (4:59)

Well, we had a slice off interest rates, didn't we, in the US Last week? So it was already sliced.

B (5:03)

We did have a. It has already started. But how long it will continue is an open question we can discuss at another time. The rest of the world is sort of done with their rate cutting cycles, or at least that's true of Europe. And Japan is kind of in a neutral position. So. And when interest rate differentials change, currencies change. So if America is going to have relatively lower interest rates relative to the rest of the world, it makes sense that its currency should weaken some. So that's part of it. And part of it is just that the dollar was very strong at the beginning of the year. It was at a multi year high and it was at the top of its range, as some technical market magician might say. And there was some correction there. So I think there's no question there's some unease about the US Fiscal situation and the quality of its governance right now, but I'm not sure how big that is.

A (6:01)

Well, what I would say is like the dollar conspicuously started falling well before the Fed started cutting again just the other day. So it's not just rates. But let's talk for a little bit about that rates outlook, because last week, like I say, there was a decision from the fed. They cut 25 basis points, as people like to say when they want to sound clever. So a quarter of a percentage point of interest rates. But the really interesting thing there was. There's a new boy at the Fed, is there not Robert Armstrong? It's not you who's the new boy?

B (6:33)

Stephen Mirren. I think I'm saying that right. I was saying it Moran for a long time and have been informed that it's wrong to say it that way because I get all my information from print, so I have no idea how anything is pronounced. Yeah, but he is a guy who is the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. He has taken leave from, but not quit that job and has been appointed to what might be just a temporary replacement job at the Fed. So in the eyes of the market and the world and God and et cetera, et cetera, he is the White House's man on the Monetary Policy Committee of the Fed.

A (7:09)

Yeah, he's Trump's guy. He's the first kind of very, very clearly Trump guy to get an important job like this at the Fed.

B (7:18)

And he thinks we need to take a massive whack on off of interest rates by the end of the year. And he's way out of the consensus of the rest of the community.

A (7:27)

Coincidentally, he just happens to agree with what Trump has wanted for us interest rates for a long time.

B (7:32)

As he told us over the weekend, that was based on his own analysis.

A (7:37)

Of the data is the thing. Just before I came down to record this, actually, I was talking to an investor who was like, you know, this guy Stephen Mirren Miran, however you want to pronounce it, he turns up, it's his first day at the Fed, right. You know, he's been in the building a matter of hours. And first of all, he calls for a Much bigger cut in interest rates than the Fed actually delivered. He wanted half a percentage point. The rest of the Fed settled on a quarter of a percentage point. But then you have this thing called the dot plot, which is where members of the rate setting committee at the Fed put a little, you know, they pin the tail on the donkey. They say, this is where I think interest rates either should or will be by, you know, the end of the year, the middle of next year, and so on and so forth.

B (8:21)

And there's a little picture with all the dots on it.

A (8:23)

Picture with dots.

B (8:24)

See where the, the spread.

A (8:25)

It's all very childish, but this is just how markets work. They work on dots. And his dot was like, there's a bunch of dots. And his dot is like way below all the others. So he's saying, by the end of.

B (8:37)

This, I laughed out loud. When I saw, when I saw the plot, I laughed out loud. It looks like a bunch of kids playing all the playground all happily together playing Ring around the Rosie. And the one reject kid none of the other dots will play with because.

A (8:50)

It'S anonymous, you can't see whose dot is whose, but it's like, oh, but.

B (8:53)

Everyone knew who it was.

A (8:54)

It's Steve Moran's first day at the Fed and suddenly a dot has appeared that says that by the end of this year we need one and a quarter percentage points more of interest rate cuts over the course of this year. Now the Fed has got two more scheduled opportunities to move interest rates over the course of this year. So that would involve two gigantic cuts over, like the sort of cuts that you only get in the middle of.

B (9:19)

A crisis, in a panic. So it's like, is he calling for a recession?

A (9:23)

Or you get like 2 normal ish size cuts and then maybe an extra cut, like an emergency cut that comes in between meetings, which, to reiterate, is only what you do when everything is terrible and fire is raining from the sky, like you have a huge pandemic or whatever. So you know, he's not gonna get his way. Cause he's gonna be outvoted, as you can see from all the other dots. But this is a very early sort of, you know, little taster for what a Trumpy Fed would do if it was allowed to get its way. Right?

B (9:56)

I think that's right. And I think it brings, it brings to all of our attention the question of, is the dollar telling us that people are worried about the monetary policy of the United States and the fiscal policy of the United States? Because the two are indeed related Is the market saying we want to put all these hedges in which you've just described which explain the weaker dollar? Because I think we should note that putting in a standard hedge on your equity portfolio requires you to sell dollars basically without going into the mechanics of it. Lots of people hedging dollars creates downward pressure on the dollar.

A (10:45)

We know that's self fulfilling and it's all a bit silly, but it is what it is.

B (10:49)

It is what it is. So is the hedging about, goodness gracious, we have a bad fiscal situation in the United States, meaning they are spending a heck of a lot more money than they're taking in, in revenue and they plan to continue doing so. And the President is intent on taking over the central bank such that interest rates will be kept artificially low. Normally when you have a dangerous fiscal situation, the central bank would be the grown up and keep rates tight so that the fiscal hijinks wouldn't cause inflation. Is the market saying there will be no adult supervision, the United States will keep spending money like a drunken sailor and taxing like, I don't know, a person who doesn't tax and one of those people. And there will be, there will be no counteracting responsibility from the Fed.

A (11:46)

And yeah, mix in. You've got, you are on a path to a Trumpy Fed that is, you know, you are not in Kansas anymore. This is a completely different beast. So like again, one of the things that investors keep talking to me about is that they've got like these kind of diagrams on their office walls with all the little pictures of all the Fed voters on it. And you have, you have red voters and blue voters. You know, all of a sudden the market is thinking about who is making interest rate decisions based on their political affiliations. Now I've been doing this an awfully long time. I have never heard of, it's never been relevant who appointed which member of the Fed rate setting committee.

B (12:30)

A cold hearted cynic like me would say it's always been a bit political, but it wasn't talked about before. Yeah, but I think taking a step back, let's say this is the situation, let's assume that we've put our finger on the world's anxiety. Fed, not very grown up government, spending a lot of money. Fed, not very responsible or very stern. Under the control of Trump, does it make sense that the world would continue to buy US stocks? I say yes, it does make sense. You know, they start to look like a safer asset, relatively speaking in a world that's a mess, owning Equity in the best companies in the world seems like a smart.

A (13:19)

We should, we should know actually.

B (13:20)

Does it make sense? Just let me move on, let me move on. Does it make sense the world would continue to buy U.S. bonds? Well, maybe less so, maybe less so than equities, but we're talking about treasury bonds here. Well, maybe if you were buying long term treasury bonds, you'd want to get paid a little more for doing so. But it's not like the rest of the world is in a beautiful fiscal situation.

A (13:43)

Two points on that. First of all, the rest of the world is not in a very good fiscal situation situation. But so you look at Europe, France is being France and having one of its periodic political crises.

B (13:55)

France gonna France, France gonna France.

A (13:58)

But that's not particularly hurting the euro. So it's a sign that there's enough downward pressure on the dollar that other countries can have like full blown political crises and you won't be able to tell it from, from the currency. The other point that I think is worth underlining here, apart from the fact that again going back to Deutsche Bank's research, about half of the flows into US government bonds now are hedged as well, which again is a big, is a big run up. But you have this combo of the world still wants to own nice growthy companies in the US and the world doesn't want to hold dollars, it wants to push down the dollar. If you're Donald Trump, that's pretty great actually because you want a weaker currency because you think it will help your exports, terms and conditions may apply, but they're thinking he's wanted a weaker dollar for ages. So actually, you know, there's a lot of talk about market vigilantes, right? The, the stock market biting back, the currencies market biting back, the bond market biting back. Actually not only are they giving Trump a pass by being quite, sort of quite relaxed and not particularly volatile, but they're actually rewarding him giving exactly what he wants, which is higher stocks and a weaker dollar.

B (15:05)

And the economy while it is slowing down is okay. The only price he's really paying is we do have a bit of tariff.

A (15:16)

Driven inflation which could easily become a lot of tariff driven inflation.

B (15:21)

It 100% good and it's preventing him from getting the even lower interest rates than he would otherwise get. If goods inflation wasn't going up, the Fed could be cutting.

A (15:31)

Yeah.

B (15:32)

And so he had, you know, that's been an imperfect outcome, but all things considered, most of the items on his wish list he has gotten. So there we are. But I would say on the thesis that what we're seeing in the dollar and dollar hedging speaks to the fiscal monetary mess the United States is digging itself into.

A (15:55)

And the institutional mess, don't forget that one as well.

B (15:58)

And the institutional, the institutional mess looks the dollar's been going sideways since kind of the last week of June. In other words, we're not seeing it bleed out steadily. And as the controversy around the Fed has increased in pitch, we have not seen the dollar weaken hand in hand with that. And these relationships don't have to be one to one and the timing is always questionable. But we have over the last couple of months seen a stabilization of the dollar. And I think we have to mention that in this conversation.

A (16:28)

Yes, but if the dollar doesn't pick up while France has quite literally set fire to itself, then you know, when can it really. So all in all, is your assessment that Trump will be very happy with the state of the world markets wise right now?

B (16:43)

Well, I would say this. There's a disappointment that the weaker dollar has not bought him more balanced trade flows. In our new chart of the week, we now do a Saturday unhedged newsletter thingy where we do one great chart and send it out to readers. You can sign up, check the show notes for how and what has not happened with a 10% weaker dollar plus tariffs has not changed the trade balance. People are just paying the tariffs and continuing to buy more stuff from abroad than they do from US Manufacturing. So that wish has not come true. Although I suppose you could argue that shifting trade flows takes a long time and maybe over time the tariffs plus the weaker dollar will have an effect.

A (17:28)

Sure, sure, sure. And it doesn't encourage foreign companies to set up shop in the US if the immigration department, whatever you call it, goes around arresting all the people, building the, arresting them.

B (17:41)

Yes, this is, this is an extremely happen when you've just hoots at your car plant in the United States. So let me ask you, maybe we should sort of round this discussion out by predicting the most unpredictable thing in the world, which is the dollar.

A (17:57)

Oh no. Never make predictions about, let's have a little.

B (18:00)

Never make predictions about currency. But remember at the beginning of the administration people thought the dollar was going to strengthen because people were going to be buying dollars to pay the tariffs. And it has been. And that was kind of a very consensus call about the dollar. It was perfectly wrong. That's when the dollar index was at 110. Now the dollar index is at 97. Let's pick, let's pick here. Euro dollar here to the end of the year. End of the year, where does the, you know, is the dollar index higher or lower than it is today at the end of the year? Katie Martin, well known markets prognosticator. What do you say?

A (18:36)

I think dollar lower.

B (18:38)

I've done this entirely to make you uncomfortable.

A (18:40)

I think dollar lower into the end of this year. The sort of punchy end of the consensus is that the euro will end this year at about $1.20. I'll take the over on that and say $1.22. How about that? What about you?

B (18:52)

Just to be contrary, I think the dollar strengthens a little bit. Team America, World Police we have this pattern in markets where we have a panic because of some loopy thing the President does. The latest loopy thing is the Stephen Marin effect. But the markets have shown that they absorb these things and talk themselves into saying things will be fine. I think the hedging effect is already in place and that the dollar will be a bit stronger.

A (19:25)

You are really sticking to your stereotype as Mr. America.

B (19:29)

Let us take a moment to remind our readers what our record is with market prediction.

A (19:34)

It's terrible. Just don't.

B (19:35)

It is.

A (19:36)

Don't listen to us about anything, especially not currencies because everyone knows they are basically impossible.

B (19:41)

Everyone is wrong about currencies, but we managed to be even wrong than the average person. Wrongerer.

A (19:48)

Yeah, even. Even wrongerer with the Unhedged podcast. Right. Listen, we're going to have to jump off for a sec and we will be back in just a little moment with Longsh Foreign. Speaking of alternatives, PJIM's monthly podcast discussing trends and strategies in alternative investing.

B (20:14)

The history and evolution of the Australian superannuation funds. It's interesting in so many ways. They actually mandate savings into retirement plans and they become some of the biggest global investors in private markets now. And their members have seen tremendous growth of their portfolios.

A (20:32)

Hear the full conversation on PJIM's podcast. Speaking of alternatives. Okey doke. It's time for Long Short. That part of the show where we go long a thing we love or short a thing we hate. Rob, have you got anything prepared for the class?

B (20:49)

I do. I am short my own career choices. I was just reading a story.

A (20:57)

Yes, I know what you're going to say. I am also Limit Short My Career.

B (21:01)

Choice by our colleague Costas. And so it's about this trader who works at a hedge fund who used to be a Financial Times journalist, is now a hedge fund trader and just got paid $100 million to switch hedge funds. This guy's name is Steve Scher.

A (21:22)

You're doing it wrong.

B (21:23)

Now, Rob Armstrong once worked at a hedge fund. Rob Armstrong has written a lot about hedge funds for the FT, just like this guy. Where is my $100 million, Katie?

A (21:34)

Maybe if you'd done it.

B (21:35)

That's what I wish. And the reason is I've basically screwed up the whole thing. I went from hedge funds to journalism. This guy went from journalism to hedge funds and now he's got the $100 million and I have a dog.

A (21:47)

But is he happy? Oh, yes. I know he is. Yeah, probably.

B (21:51)

It's outrageously happy.

A (21:53)

I couldn't even make it. Like, I really struggled to read the rest of the story because I was so outraged that a former journalist could be earning so much money. I'll tell you something else outrageous.

B (22:01)

God damn it.

A (22:03)

I am short Matcha. Too many people are drinking matcha beverages.

B (22:09)

My daughter likes it.

A (22:10)

It's gross. It tastes like silage.

B (22:16)

It's kind of dirt, isn't it? It's basically a dirt flavored.

A (22:19)

Apparently matcha sales have doubled in the UK. Everyone loves matcha. Apparently about 4% of all drinks sold in cafes contain matcha. It's green. It's not for human consumption. It tastes like some sort of grassy silage. Nonsense. It's a no from me. And just as we were getting ready for this section of the show, our editor Bryant said that someone tried to give him a blue cheese martini at the weekend.

B (22:45)

This is why the dollar is weak.

A (22:47)

Actually, this is why the dollar is weak.

B (22:50)

The beverage situation has gotten completely out. People are drinking matcha and blue cheese martinis and it's gonna bring the global financial system to knees.

A (22:59)

Good God. Have we not suffered enough listeners? On that deeply unpleasant note, for which I apologize unreservedly, we've got to get out of here. But we are going to be back in your ears later this week. So listen up then. Unhedged is produced by Jake Harper and edited by Bryant Urstadt. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. Topher forges is the FT's acting co head of audio. Special thanks to Laura Clark, Alistair Mackey, Greta Cohn and Natalie Sadler. FT Premium subscribers can get the Unhedged newsletter for free. A 30 day free trial is available to everyone else. Just go to ft.com unhedgedoffer I'm Katie Martin. Thanks for listening, Sam.