Podcast Summary: Unhedged – "Is M&A Turning Around?"
Release Date: July 24, 2025
Host: Aidan Reider (Guest: Sujeet Indap, FT’s Wall Street Editor)
Duration: Approximately 17 minutes
Introduction to M&A Landscape Under the Trump Administration
Aidan Reider opens the episode by setting the stage for the discussion on mergers and acquisitions (M&A) amidst the Trump administration's policies. He highlights the initial optimism among Wall Street professionals following the Republican trifecta in the White House and Congress, which many anticipated would ignite a surge in lucrative deals after a subdued Biden administration period.
Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin typically co-host, but in this episode, Aidan Reider fills in alongside Sujeet Indap, the Financial Times’ Wall Street editor.
Initial Optimism vs. Current Reality in M&A
Rob Armstrong asks Sujeet Indap about Wall Street's excitement when Trump took office.
Sujeet Indap (00:31) responds:
"Back in November, some of the key deal-making stocks, particularly in the boutique investment banks sector, shot up. The expectation was that Donald Trump would unleash animal spirits into the deals market with more lax regulators, removing figures like Lina Khan and Jonathan Kanter from the antitrust scene. The belief was that 2025 would herald a golden age of deal-making."
However, Sujeet notes that the first six months under Trump have been "not so great" (02:16), with deal-making being lethargic due to various factors, including the administration's erratic posture and policy uncertainty.
Impact of Trump's Administration on Specific Deals
Rob Armstrong inquires about the U.S. Steel deal and Trump's involvement. Sujeet explains (03:12):
"The U.S. Steel deal, initially blocked by Biden on national security grounds, was resurrected by Trump. The administration introduced a 'golden share'—a unique concept in America—that allows the government to influence corporate actions without holding economic value. This unprecedented move has introduced a new layer of complexity and political risk into large deals."
Rob comments on the antithetical nature of this approach to traditional Republican politics, to which Sujeet agrees, emphasizing the unusual government intervention in the private sector.
Regulatory Shifts and Their Implications
Discussing regulatory changes, Sujeet highlights (05:23):
"Under Trump, the FTC and Department of Justice have brought in a team more permissive than their Biden-era predecessors, though still somewhat quirky, especially regarding big tech. While not perfect, Wall Street feels this new team is manageable."
However, challenges remain as the administration maintains a complex stance on regulation, exemplified by figures like J.D. Vance showing interest in Lina Khan's corporate power theories.
Signs of M&A Recovery and Future Outlook
Despite initial slowdowns, Sujeet observes a recent positive shift (06:38):
"With the passage of the big budget bill, reducing fiscal policy uncertainty, and the completion of bilateral trade agreements like the Japan deal, Wall Street sentiment has improved. Companies have strategic imperatives driven by technological advancements and market changes, fueling a resurgence in deal-making."
Rob summarizes the factors reducing uncertainty: clearer tariff terms, an accommodative budget bill, and the availability of debt and equity financing.
Notable Upcoming Deals
Sujeet outlines significant upcoming mergers, starting with the potential $250 billion railroad merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern (09:02):
"This consolidation aims to overcome interchange complexities in Chicago, a major cargo bottleneck. Despite strict Surface Transportation Board regulations that typically prevent such mergers, current market dynamics and regulatory openness under Trump may allow this deal to proceed."
He likens the scenario to the "Gilded Age," drawing parallels to historical railroad magnates.
Another prominent deal is the Paramount acquisition by Redbird Capital and Skydance (11:55):
"This complex deal involves keeping Paramount public while involving major shareholders like the Redstone family. The Trump administration's intervention, especially regarding CBS's contentious relationship with Trump, adds a unique political dimension to the acquisition process."
Bullish Indicators in the M&A Market
Sujeet points out optimistic signs, such as Goldman Sachs canceling planned layoffs due to upcoming deals (11:37):
"The decision to retain workforce amidst robust deal activity boosts morale and indicates a healthy M&A environment."
He emphasizes that strategic corporate goals and the availability of financing continue to drive the appetite for deals, positioning the current period as a pivotal moment for M&A resurgence.
Long and Short Segment
In the show's regular "Long and Short" segment, both hosts share their selections:
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Sujeet Indap goes long on Scotty Scheffler, praising him as the most dominant golfer since Tiger Woods and lauding his performance in the British Open.
"I'm going long on Scottie Scheffler. It's amazing to watch him as a golfer—he's the new Tiger Woods."
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Rob Armstrong opts to short Japan, citing macroeconomic headwinds such as rising inflation, increasing rice prices, labor concerns, and questions about future demand.
"I'm short Japan. While the recent tariff deal provides clarity, Japan faces significant economic challenges that the deal alone won't resolve."
Conclusion and Forward Look
Rob Armstrong and Sujeet Indap conclude on an optimistic note, recognizing that the M&A landscape is poised for growth as strategic needs align with improved regulatory and economic conditions. However, they acknowledge the persistent unpredictability introduced by the Trump administration's unique approach to deal-making and regulation.
Rob reflects:
"We're back to the post-election optimism with strong M&A activity on the horizon, driven by strategic imperatives and a more conducive external environment."
Sujeet concurs, highlighting the continual strategic imperatives driving companies to pursue growth through deals, now finding a favorable window to act.
Production Credits
Produced by Jake Harper
Edited by Bryant Urstadt
Executive Producer: Jacob Goldstein
Additional Help: Topher Forhouse
Cheryl Brumley, FT's Global Head of Audio
Special Thanks: Laura Clark, Alistair Macki, Greta Cohn, and Natalie Sadler.
Note: This summary is based on the transcript provided and aims to encapsulate all key discussions, insights, and conclusions from the episode "Is M&A Turning Around?" on the "Unhedged" podcast by Financial Times & Pushkin Industries.