Podcast Summary: Unhedged — Is the US an Emerging Market?

Date: November 11, 2025
Host: Katie Martin (Financial Times)
Guests: David McWilliams (economist, author), Mark Blyth (political economist, Brown University)
Location: Live at the Kilkenomics Festival, Kilkenny, Ireland

Episode Overview

In this special live edition, host Katie Martin sits down with celebrated Irish economist David McWilliams and Brown University professor Mark Blyth in front of a festival crowd in Kilkenny. The central question, posed with tongue-in-cheek but with serious undertones, is: "Is the USA a big fat emerging market?" The conversation weaves through current global financial concerns and delves into what defines an emerging market, the role of the US dollar, the risks of hyper-financialization, and uncomfortable similarities between the US and troubled economies of the past.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What is Kilkenomics?

• [02:36] McWilliams explains the Festival’s origin: post-financial crash, aiming to make economics accessible by mixing it with comedy.
• McWilliams: "Economics is far too important to be left to economists. ...The clerics have mangled the message... elevated possibly the most inarticulate, unrepresentative people to explain this to the average person." ([04:30])

2. What Defines an Emerging Market?

• [05:38] McWilliams frames the Irish experience as emblematic of emerging markets—a history of multiple currencies, fiscal crises, and emigration due to capital scarcity.
• Memorable quote: "If we spoke Spanish, we’d be Argentinian. And we'd be better at football and wine and probably better looking." —McWilliams ([06:45])

3. Is the US Becoming an Emerging Market?

• Dollar Centrality

  • [07:16] Blyth points out the unique position of the US due to the dollar’s dominance:

    "It's the dollar... 70% of all global transactions are conducted in dollars. 64% of reserves are basically treasury notes... It's kind of international money." ([07:16])

  • All alternatives (Euro, Yuan) have structural limitations that prevent them from displacing the dollar.

• Institutions and Political Risk

  • Concerns about US institutions (the Fed, political stability, Trump) are noted, but Blyth downplays immediate systemic risk because the dollar’s position is so entrenched.
  • "The Fed is the global central bank. That won’t change regardless of who's using it." —Mark Blyth ([09:54])

• US "Peronism" and Import Substitution

  • [10:08] McWilliams warns of the US adopting policies typical of insecure, not confident, economies:

    "Self confident countries do not introduce tariffs. Insecure countries introduce tariffs as a general rule... The notion that you would have import substitution... which is Donald Trump’s thing, seems very, very Peronist to me." "The United States looks to me like a country that is embracing Peronism, Argentinian style." ([12:50])

4. America as a Global Money Magnet

• [14:01] Martin asks if tech dominance and hyper-financialization have reached their limits.
• Blyth contextualizes: the world pushes money into the US due to the structure of trade and reserve currency demand—it's not just America "sucking money in."
  • "It's not just sucking money out of the world, the world is pushing money into the United States. And I don't see it ending because I don't see where else it can go." ([15:45])

5. Is There a Bubble in US Assets?

• [16:09] Martin presses: "Pretty much everyone who looks at markets is like, there's a bubble going on right here in the States."
• McWilliams draws a parallel between the US and "Dutch disease":

  "What the Americans found was not gas, but an insatiable appetite for their assets. ...The ascent of American money has in effect elbowed out real industries… It has led to the hyper financialization of the system." ([17:00])

  • This financialization exacerbates inequality and instability, driving political tension (e.g., the MAGA movement).

6. Are We Close to a Reckoning?

• [21:20] Martin asks Blyth how close the US is to "midnight" (reckoning).
• Blyth: US tech market is a levered bet on a few huge companies, with the majority of Americans disconnected from the stock wealth.

  "51% of US stocks are owned by the top 1%... The vast majority of Americans have no connection to the stock market whatsoever." ([22:30])

  • Bubble risk lies in mounting debt; he would prefer a correction now rather than later when it’s even more leveraged: "I actually want it to go down sooner rather than later because the longer you wait, the more borrowed money will be in this."

7. Opacity and Special Purpose Vehicles: Red Flags

• [24:56] Martin and McWilliams critique the current tech mania, especially non-transparent financial vehicles.

  McWilliams: "Once you hear this, run: that your money is in something called a special purpose vehicle, take it out... these are straws in the wind."

  • Hiding risk and leveraging are signals of instability akin to the 2007-08 crisis.

8. If a Crash Comes, What Next? Will the Fed Save Markets?

• [27:26] McWilliams imagines if the Fed chooses not to bail out markets—echoing the Bank of England’s handling of the Liz Truss "mini-budget" moment.

  "If the Fed doesn't flood the zone... what we could then get is a very interesting political crisis resulting from the behavior of our friends in Silicon Valley." ([28:39])

• Blyth: The Fed has always ultimately stepped in to "insure the assets", and not doing so would be highly political and possibly institution-destroying.

  "So I'm with David. This is not a central prediction by any means, but it's definitely not far out in the tails." ([30:07])

9. UK Sidebar: The Modern "Emerging Market"?

• Brief tangent on the UK's fiscal fragility post-Liz Truss.
  • McWilliams: "If the United Kingdom cannot pay its way... and if it cannot generate the growth rate... you do begin to look into a debt dynamic, which is quite worrying." ([33:01])
  • Blyth: "Britain for the past 30 years has been living on other people buying British assets." ([35:12])

Memorable Quotes

• McWilliams: “Economics is far too important to be left to economists.” ([04:30])
• Blyth: "The Fed is the global central bank. That won’t change regardless of who's using it." ([09:54])
• McWilliams: “The United States looks to me like a country that is embracing Peronism, Argentinian style.” ([12:50])
• Blyth: "51% of US stocks are owned by the top 1%. ...The vast majority of Americans have no connection to the stock market whatsoever." ([22:30])
• McWilliams: "Once you hear this, run: that your money is in something called a special purpose vehicle, take it out... these are straws in the wind." ([25:28])
• Martin: "It's like a fever dream for men who have overdosed on money." (re Saudi's 'The Line' city, [38:01])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00 — Intro, scene setting at Kilkenomics
• 02:36 — What is Kilkenomics? Why economics with comedy?
• 05:12 — What is an emerging market? Irish perspective
• 07:16 — The global dominance of the US dollar
• 10:08 — Can the US "go bad"? Is Peronist policy creeping in?
• 14:01 — US as a magnet for global capital; tech bubble concerns
• 16:09 — Recognizing bubbles; lessons from Dutch Disease
• 21:20 — Is the US facing a stock market reckoning?
• 24:56 — Special purpose vehicles and financial opacity as warnings
• 27:26 — hypothetical: What if the Fed doesn't step in to rescue?
• 31:52 — Quick segue: Britain and fiscal fragility, IMF jokes
• 36:55 — 'Long/Short' fun segment (long sterling/short dollar, satire on Musk/Saudi projects, etc.)
• 38:08 — Wrap up

Tone and Style Notes

• The conversation is lively, unscripted, full of jokes and festival energy.
• Panelists use stories, analogies (football cards, Dutch gas, Peronism) to explain economic ideas in plain language.
• Blunt, irreverent assessments abound—"men who have overdosed on money", "don't leave Musk to watch your dog", "run from special purpose vehicles".

Conclusion

While the US’s fundamentals are still propped up by the dollar’s hegemonic status, the panelists see mounting risks: policy shifts toward protectionism, dangerous financialization, narrowing economic benefits, and increasingly fragile global sentiment. The US as a literal "emerging market" is too glib—but, as with the UK’s recent turmoil, today's certainties can unravel faster than most people expect. The dominant question is not if cracks will emerge, but how and when, and how authorities might respond.

For those who haven't listened, this episode provides a global perspective with deep skepticism about where the US (and the rest of the developed world) might be heading—delivered with humor and clear economic storytelling.