Loading summary
A
Foreign. The US stock market is off to a great start to 2026. And US government bonds are also pretty well behaved. So all is well in the world. Peace and harmony reign. Everything is awesome in global markets. Well, you know, kinda the problem here for pretty much everyone is the dollar. It's taken a decent hit in the opening weeks of and that munches into the returns that investors around the world can get out of US assets. Plus there's some weird stuff going on with the Japanese yen. If you're confused, I don't blame you. But fear not, for today on the show, we're going to unpack what's going on and why it matters. This is Unhedged, the Markets and finance podcast from the Financial Times and Pushkin. I'm Katie Martin, a markets columnist at FT Towers in London, which has a tiny, tiny hint of spring in the air. And I'm joined through the magic of the Internet by the big man Robert Armstrong off of the Unhedged newsletter.
B
In New York City, there's not a tiny, tiny hint of spring in the air in New York City. There is a tiny, tiny hint of I'm about to freeze to death in New York City.
A
So you're still in your snow boots?
B
I am indeed. And my long undies, please.
A
It's a family show. Before we get going, we discussed briefly the Melania movie other day.
B
We did.
A
And, and, and it sounds, I've got to say, epic. One review that I saw the other day said even if they showed it on a plane, people would still walk out.
B
This is shooting fish in a barrel.
A
Okay. Serious stuff. The dollar, it's not just any old currency, right? So it, its ups and downs affect the whole world in like partly because commodities are often priced in dollars. So you know, your cost of oil, for example, as a country depends a lot on whether the dollar is going up or down, in addition to whether oil is going up or down. And you can be very, very, very clever as an investor. And you can be right about US Stocks, biggest, most important stock market in the world. But if you get the dollar wrong, then you get ironed out. So S&P 500, the big benchmark US stocks index just hit 7,000 the other day. It's up about 2% just in January so far. But if you're based in Euros, it's up more or less 0%. And if you're based in sterling, it's down half a percent because of the dollar. So I guess the moral of the story is even if you think you don't need to think about currencies. I'm afraid you do. So what's going on here, Mr. Armstrong?
B
There is a trust issue between the United States and the rest of the world, I think is the basic problem that's the case. We, we had a kind of a wild week. I mean, the chart of the dollar is a thing to behold and it's of course it's a joke to talk about charts on the radio and I won't. But like basically the decline in the dollar we've seen in the last week, the only thing that compares to it in the last couple of years is the Liberation Day freak out back in April. Right. So it looks like we had a similar kind of collapse in trust in the United States. And I think that's easy to understand in the following sense. Just on the heels of sort of threatening to invade a NATO country, we had Trump talking about how he doesn't care about the dollar and indeed he's fine with a weak dollar. We had the United States government signal that it might intervene in the dollar yen market. And then we had the Treasury Secretary of the United States say that actually we had a strong dollar policy. So you can sympathize with people around the world who own a lot of US Assets from thinking things were a little jumpy over here and we better buy some protection against dollar volatility.
A
Can I add to that little list of like Greenland and all the rest of it, Obviously the long running hellscape, that is, who's going to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve? You know, is the new central bank chief going to do exactly what Donald Trump wants? None of that helps, but so it's useful, I think, to do a few little scores on the doors here. So as you say, there was a big hit to the dollar last year around Liberation Day, but that kind of petered out in the second half of the year. But what we've seen so far in 2026, so the dollar index is down by a little over 2%. So that measures the dollar against a whole bunch of other major currencies.
B
Yes.
A
That means you've got sterling, for example, is up 2.5% so far this month, which is yet another poke in the eye for all those muppets saying we were going to have to go to the IMF. So the strongest for sterling, since I think 2021 euro is up also about 2 and a half percent. The Swiss franc, which is one of the currencies that people like when bad stuff happens, that has Gone absolutely banana. That's up about 4%, strongest since about 2011. This is bad.
B
Let's pour out a schnapps. Schnapps for the poor Swiss here. Just because they kind of mind their own business and they're a small country and they have this stable currency, they get these massive bids for their currency which there isn't that much of, which kind of unbalances their economy and it's a very difficult situation for them.
A
Yeah, the Swiss are now in a situation where to deal with this currency strength, which is really bad because like.
B
You can't sell your stuff when your currency is really expensive. And if you make watches and chocolate and cuckoo clocks to fall back on some tiresome cliches, that's a problem, right?
A
Yeah. Puts Switzerland in a situation where it could end up with disinflation, where inflation is coming down or even with deflation, where prices are coming down. This is a very bad thing. So the poor old Swiss are now in a situation where to try and deflect some of this demand for the Swiss franc, they might have to either implement negative interest rates again, which they are not keen on, or they might have to intervene and buy dollars which were piss the Americans off. And if they're not careful then the Americans could slap massive trade tariffs back on them. So the poor old Swiss national bank is in a bind. Now you mentioned the Japanese yen a minute ago. That's a slightly different story. So listeners, stick a little pin in this one. We, we're going to come back to that particular subject in a little bit. But as you say, the issue is it's, it's a trust issue. There's just so many reasons to think I'm a bit worried about what's going to happen to the dollar in the year ahead and then that becomes quite self fulfilling because when investors take out hedges, they protect themselves against falls in the dollar. Kind of the way you do that is sell the dollar now and sell.
B
It forward without going into the niceties, you sell it in the forward market. And for reasons that are too tiresome to rehearse here, that pushes the value of the dollar down.
A
Yeah.
B
And so, yeah, you get this vicious cycle where weakness causes hedging, hedging causes weakness, more weakness causes more hedging and off you go.
A
Do you know what we have here? So there's a very nice note the other day on FT Alphaville readers. It's free. You have to register, but it's free. And they said what we have here are termites. Slowly feasting away at the foundations of the dollar's dominance.
B
Can I just make a clarification here, Katie? I think it's important to note that what is not happening, as far as we can tell, is global investors turning away from US Assets. People still like Treasuries, people still like stocks. They just don't want the currency volatility associated with erratic economic policymaking. And so they are paying to make that volatility go away.
A
But also they. You can still like your Treasuries and you can still like your stocks, but just over time you can buy more of other stuff so you don't have to sell your U.S. assets.
B
Yes, I know. You're a hater. You're one of the haters. You're one of the American haters. Well, well, well, I'm not. I'm just coming back to that. I'm not listening to your propaganda, Katie. I'm not listening.
A
Well, here's some other propaganda for you, Mr. Armstrong. Termites. So note on Alphaville from Stephen Kammin, who was previously head of international finance at the Federal Res. No slouch. And Mark Sobel, who was previously head of international finance at the U.S. treasury. Smart people. They are saying that whereas a few years ago one would have been hard pressed to foresee a world without dollar dominance, now you can readily imagine such a disorder emerging in the coming decades. So bear the time frames in mind. But their list of termites here include. The US Is not being a nice friend to the rest of the world. Right. It's not a trusted bad friend. Partner in the world.
B
Bad friend.
A
Bad friend. Bad, bad. The soundness of US macro policy has come into question. I think that's hard to argue with.
B
No, it's come into statement. It's bad.
A
You got budget deficits and massive debt burdens which, you know, you can choose to worry about at some point. Institutions are being degraded. Tick. And the rule of law is being weakened. Ticket. These are all reasons long term not to like the dollar.
B
Not to like the dollar. That's really my point, that there's. There. It's one thing to say. Yeah, yeah. It's one thing to say that. I just think this is an important clarification. It's one thing to say there are kind of alternatives here and there as a currency to invoice in or a currency to borrow in or a currency, you know, whatever, to transact into the dollar. That doesn't change the hard fact that America is the indispensable economy. And America's treasury bond Market is the indispensable safe asset market. And American stocks are the highest quality equity assets in the world. And so we just need, you know, those two, those two are separate things. But that's, they are, that's all I'm saying.
A
But they, they are separate things. But at the end of the day, it's kind of the same result because like I say, if you don't take action, if you don't hedge, if you as an investor that's outside the U.S. if you don't hedge, if you don't bulk up elsewhere, then if we carry on like this, still a big if, the dollar could turn around, you're going to end up at the end of the year with, on paper, fantastic returns out of the US Stock market, but basically getting nothing out of it because the dollar will just wipe you out. So it's a really.
B
Especially in fixed income. Especially in fixed income, where the returns tend to be a little bit lower.
A
Yeah, yeah. In bonds, it's a problem. In stocks, it's a problem in, in everything, it's a problem. Yes. You know, there's that sort of very famous old adage, and I know it's a cliche, but I'm going to raise it Anyway. The famous 1971 quote from, from US Treasury Secretary John Connolly, who said, the dollar is our currency, but it's your problem.
B
I was born in 1971.
A
You know, that's a fine vintage, good year. But, yeah, so that's the thing. It fans problems out around the rest of the world. Now, one of the things here that is, for me, one of the major reasons why the dollar is in decline is around this stuff to do with the Federal Reserve. Right. It's to do with the central bank. They're trying to find a replacement. The Trump administration is trying to find a replacement for Jay Powell because he steps aside in May. I know we've talked about this on the show multiple times before, but ultimately what they're trying to do is find someone who is a combination of clever, knows what they're doing and has got the trust of the market, but simultaneously is willing to bend the knee to Donald Trump and kind of do whatever he wants. And he really wants lower interest rates. He's very fixed on this to the.
B
Extent that, that he has trumped up, pun intended, a lawsuit to get rid of a Fed governor and has subpoenaed.
A
He says nothing to do with him, but yeah.
B
And he subpoenaed. Yeah. He says it's nothing to do with him. Fair enough. It's his Justice Department and he's subpoenaed the Federal Reserve and its chair, Jay Powell for criminal misconduct around the renovation, the very expensive renovation of the Fed's headquarters. So this is bullying on a major scale and the world don't like it. I think all the other stuff we've talked about is more kind of timely, but that is just burning in the background and it's the context for this whole discussion.
A
It is smoldering. Here's my question for you, Rob Armstrong. We keep being told every five minutes that we are just around the corner from getting the nomination from Trump for who's going to be the next Fed chair. Where is the nomination, you guys?
B
Katie, I'm gonna break a little news here. Negotiations between myself and the White House have been dragging on over terms, but we're getting closer, so.
A
Yes. Remember the bit where I said they had to know what they were doing?
B
Yeah. No, it's taking time. I mean, that White House has rather a lot on its plate. We recently wrote about Rick Reeder, who is the head of fixed income at Mighty blackrock.
A
Yeah. So that's bonds to you and me.
B
Yeah. He probably manages, I think he manages the biggest private bond portfolio in the world. Although I might be wrong about that. It's one of the really biggies. And he's very dovish. He's long been in favor of, of lower interest rates. He had a meeting with the President, The President praised him. So he's in the running. And now according to the betting markets, he's not only in the running, he's in the lead.
A
So you've got, you've got the Kevins. There's a few Kevins in the mix.
B
Yes. Kevin's are the kind of Kevin Warsh being the traditional choice, the kind of longest standing Fed official. Right. Then you have Kevin Hassett, who is considered. How do I put this? Elegantly more closely aligned personally with the President.
A
Nicely done.
B
Who else is in the game? Have we missed any big ones?
A
Every now and then people talk about the Treasury Secretary, Scott Besson, in relation to this job. That's kind of like voodoo, right? To have your Treasury Secretary in the running for the Fed job. I guess Janet Yellen did do sort of one after the other, but yeah.
B
I don't think it's unheard of. And it's kind of a Dick Cheney thing where like he was the head of the committee to find a vice president and at the end of it he's like, look who I found. It's me.
A
Ta da. The best person for the job is me. Yeah.
B
So I think that, that that is one the. The market maybe. I know you're the odds on him, don't you, Katie?
A
I wouldn't rule it out. I just think this whole thing is now taking so long, like we've been told repeatedly for at least the past two or three months that we're gonna know who the nomination is any day now. And the fact it's dragging on just makes me think, hmm, there's a number of weird things going on here.
B
Fair enough.
A
I think it would help, possibly help the dollar actually, if we get a little bit of clarity around this.
B
And I think if it wasn't Besent or Hasset, I think that would help the dollar too. Yeah, I think if it was Reader, it would help the dollar at first until the market found out the things he's been saying about interest rates for years.
A
Yeah, but I'm crossing you off of my.
B
Okay, I'm not on the list. Fair enough.
A
Okay. It's not going to be now. So that's all the kind of big picture dollar stuff, right? The dollar is weak pretty much across the board. I'll tell you where the dollar is not weak and that is in Asia. So the dollar is very strong against the Japanese yen, for example, which is very, very weak. Now some very weird stuff went down at the back end of last week in relation to the yen. And this is like this is the sort of nerdy currency market stuff that nourishes me because I used to be a big currencies market nerd. So when the bank of Japan, on behalf of the Ministry of Finance in Japan, gets upset with where the yen is, typically because it's too strong, but currently because the yen is really, really weak, they go through a number of stages of trying to bend the market round to their direction. First of all, they tend to make lots of public statements around. You know, look at the yen. That's a thing, isn't it? We don't like the volatility and that's a kind of low key kind of. Lads, lads, lads, knock it off. And then if that doesn't work, what they tend to do is up the ante and they do something called a rate check where somewhere all the big kind of currency trading banks in the yen get a little phone call from the bank of Japan saying, oh, no reason, just wondering what your rate is on Dolly.
B
How much would it cost me if I wanted to manipulate the yen market? What would that run me?
A
Yeah, what would your price Be if I wanted to sell a load of dollar yen or buy a load of dollar yen, no reason, just asking. And that is kind of code for, oh, okay, they're serious here. They're moving towards the point where they might directly intervene in the market and either buy or sell dollars to move the yen around.
B
And I think when a Treasury department or a central bank does that, they literally say to the dealers they're talking to, and don't forget to tell your friends that I called. Right.
A
So rate checks are like a really important bit of this whole choreography. But here's the thing. The latest rate check that happened on Dolly Yen did not come from the bank of Japan on the behalf of the Ministry of Finance. It came from the New York Fed on behalf of the U.S. treasury. Like, what the hell is going on there? Why are the US Authorities involved in this way in like low key yen management? This is very, very strange.
B
Okay, one correction and two theories for you there. The correction is this was not low key. The US does this about once every 15 years. Does a check in some rate market. So this is extremely rare event and unusual and is like patent.
A
Does this all by itself. Normally there's no role for the US.
B
This is a very big deal. There are two theories going about why the US Would do a rate check on the yen. The first theory is that the Trump administration, whatever else it says, likes a weak dollar and low rates. And it felt that it is dangerous that Japanese rates are rising and its currency is falling because that could infect the US Market and ultimately drive US Rates up and make mortgages more expensive and make Republicans lose the midterms. That would be the order of events.
A
There would all be Japan's fault.
B
It could all be Japan's fault. So theory number one is Secretary Bessant and the President decided they didn't want a currency crisis on their hands in Japan because those things get out of hand and can corrupt the United States. The second theory is that Secretary Bessant and President Trump really want Japan to come through on their commitments to invest heavily in the United States. And this was a not very subtle reminder to the new Prime Minister of Japan that she has a very good and powerful friend in the United States.
A
Can I give you a third theory?
B
Okay, go.
A
It is that a lot of Asian currencies are really quite weak at the moment. And Trump doesn't like that. Right. Because it makes Asian exports much cheaper, which he thinks is unfair to the United States. The dollar is too strong.
B
Yes.
A
One theory I've heard Articulated recently is that this move on the Japanese yen, it could end up being a very early signal that something is cooking with regards to Asian currencies. Like, you know, broadly speaking, coming from the U.S. treasury, that, okay, so you got, you've already got like a pretty strong pound, a pretty strong euro, a very, very strong Swiss franc and all of that. The fly in the ointment for the US Dollar policy is that you've got very weak Asian currencies. Might they be trying to cook something up to, to, to pull those currencies back up now? Like, my understanding is that what the US treasury has done on the yen is just about the yen, and that there's no read across to other aging currencies. But there's just a part of my brain that's saying, this is really weird, lads. So listeners, we'd, you know your guess as good as mine. Is there something cooking on Asian currencies? Who do you think is going to be the next Fed chair? It's not Rob, by the way. Unhedgedt.com, let us know what you think. We're gonna be back in just one sec with Long Short Radio. It is time for Long Short, that part of the show where we go long a thing we love or short a thing we hate.
B
Rob, what you saying, Katie, you talking to you has convinced me. I think Scott Besant is going to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve. You heard it here first or you heard it, you heard it here second? You heard it from Katie, you heard it from me second. But I'm putting, I'm putting my reputation behind it in a way that she did not.
A
It's the first time I've ever convinced you of anything I am short of. Did you see the story we had this week that says that Elon Musk is thinking of timing the stock market listing of SpaceX, his rockets company, to coincide with a rare planetary alignment and his birthday. Apparently he's targeting mid June because that's when Jupiter and Venus will appear very close together. I'm short this for two reasons. The first reason is that horoscopes are, are bullshit. And the second one is that can you imagine a woman CEO saying this out loud? She would get told to have a nice lie down and a cup of tea, but because it's Elon Musk. No, no, very sensible. So I'm short these things. Listeners, we are going to be back in your ears on Tuesday, so listen up then. And in the meantime, thank you for your attention to this matter Unhedged is produced by Jake Harper and edited by Bryant Urstadt. Our ex Executive Producer is Jacob Goldstein. We had additional help from Topher Forehead. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's global head of Audio. Special thanks to Laura Clark, Alistair Mackey, Greta Cohn and Natalie Sadler. FT Premium subscribers can get the Unhedged newsletter for free and a 30 day free trial is available to everyone else. Just go to ft.com unhedged offer I'm Katie Martin. Thanks for listening. Sam.
Date: January 29, 2026
Hosts: Katie Martin (London, FT Markets Columnist), Robert Armstrong (New York, Unhedged Newsletter)
The hosts discuss the recent sharp decline in the US dollar, why it matters globally, and the web of financial and political factors fueling the volatility. They examine implications for investors, unusual currency market interventions (particularly around the yen), and the uncertainty surrounding the next US Federal Reserve chair. The episode highlights the interconnectedness of US macro-policy, global trust, and the dollar's historically dominant role.
The conversation is witty, candid, and accessible (“nerdy currency market stuff that nourishes me,” Katie). Both hosts pepper in banter and sharp commentary, striking a balance between technical explanation and “markets gossip.”
Even for those not immersed in finance, this episode offers a lucid explanation of why the dollar’s movements have outsized effects worldwide, how investor trust and political signals shape currency markets, and why this year’s Fed succession drama is so consequential. The show also shines a light on the rare intervention by US authorities in the Japanese yen market and flags the global implications of even “small” US policy shifts.
Listeners are left with big questions: Is this the beginning of the end for the dollar’s supremacy, or a blip? What kind of Fed will the world get next, and what does US muscle-flexing in currency markets mean going forward?