Who Gets to Buy Warner Bros. Discovery?

Summary

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Unhedged Podcast Summary

Episode: Who Gets to Buy Warner Bros. Discovery?
Date: December 9, 2025
Hosts: Rob Armstrong, Oliver Barnes, James Fontanella-Khan
Theme:
A deep dive into the ongoing acquisition battle for Warner Bros. Discovery, featuring a play-by-play of the deal's plot twists, the cast of bidders (Netflix, Paramount, Comcast), and the complicated web of corporate strategy, media politics, and financial intrigue underpinning one of the decade’s most dramatic M&A showdowns.

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Episode Overview

The episode unpacks the recent, highly-publicized contest to buy Warner Bros. Discovery, focusing on the mechanics of the deal, the strategies and motivations of the main bidders, and the broader implications for Hollywood and the streaming industry. The discussion brings together both financial insight and Hollywood storytelling flair, examining the roles of key personalities, intriguing dealmaking tactics, and political entanglements—culminating in bold predictions on the deal’s outcome.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Saga’s Origin: Warner’s Troubles Set the Stage

[02:11-04:02]

• David Zaslav, Warner Bros. Discovery CEO, merged Discovery with Warner Bros. in an initially underperforming union.
• Zaslav then explored breaking up the company, separating the legacy cable assets (“CNNs of the world, Discovery, Animal Planet—these are dying assets” – Oliver Barnes, [02:51]) from the valuable studio and streaming business (Harry Potter, DC, HBO Max).
• Financial Context:
  • Warner Bros. Discovery stock saw explosive short-term growth (up 190% in 6 months), but only 3% total over five years.
    • “Until there was a dog fight over this asset, it was a struggling stock.” – Rob Armstrong, [03:33]

2. The Arrival of Suitors and the Birth of a Bidding War

[04:02-07:33]

• Ellison Family Moves: Larry and David Ellison attempt to build a Hollywood powerhouse by merging SkyDance (behind Mission Impossible) with Paramount, and set sights on Warner.
  • David Ellison delivers an out-of-the-blue bid to Zaslav’s home (“It’s a plot fit for Hollywood, isn’t it?” – Oliver Barnes, [02:11])
• The First Bid:
  • Initial Ellison/Paramount bid comes in at under $20 per share around September.
  • The process unfolds very publicly, fueling media and shareholder drama.
• Warner’s Response:
  • Zaslav initially rebuffs the offer, focusing on strategic spinoffs to attract tech interest (Netflix, Amazon, Apple).

3. The Rise of Multiple Bidders: Comcast, Paramount, and Netflix Step In

[07:33-09:28]

• Comcast emerges as a “most traditional rival”, owns studio, TV, cable, and the struggling streaming service Peacock.
• Netflix surprises everyone by entering the bidding, despite a longstanding “build, not buy” philosophy.
  • “Netflix has never done real big M and A.” – James Fontanella-Khan, [08:19]
  • Their previous largest deal was only $900 million.
• Industry Skepticism:
  • Most in Hollywood initially dismiss Netflix’s chances, but “when you spoke to people who had run the numbers, the Netflix deal kind of made most sense. It gave them what they wanted.” – Oliver Barnes, [08:36]

4. The Bidding Intensifies: Terms, Cash, and Antitrust

[09:28-13:40]

• The Crunch Moment:
  • As Netflix enters exclusive negotiations, Paramount is left feeling iced out—“And they ghosted them for the whole of Thursday.” – Oliver Barnes, [10:00]
  • Paramount increases its bid to $30 per share, all in cash (response to Warner’s priorities: “cash is king” and certainty of closure).
  • Paramount tries to reassure on regulatory risk; money is backed by Middle Eastern funds and Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners, but “none of these entities...would have any governance rights or board seats.” – James Fontanella-Khan, [11:25]
  • Zaslav is offered a co-CEO position should Paramount win.
• Netflix Still Wins:
  • Despite Paramount’s improved bid, Warner’s board chooses to go with the Netflix offer, seen as cleaner, faster, and strategically aligned.
  • This snub leads to Paramount’s “hostile” public bid—a tender offer taken directly to shareholders.
    • “They just blew them off and went with Netflix anyway.” – Rob Armstrong, [12:57]

5. The Political Dimension: Trump, Antitrust, and Powerbrokers

[13:56-17:36]

• Political Leveraging:
  • Paramount’s team engages Jared Kushner and highlights their alignment with the Trump administration, expecting regulatory favor.
    • “Activating the political side of deals. Theirs hasn’t succeeded so far at least in convincing the Warner board.” – Oliver Barnes, [15:28]
• Trump’s Unpredictability:
  • Trump openly comments on the deal and antitrust issues, but is publicly equivocal:
    - “He said, yeah, Netflix has a big market share...We probably need an economist to look into this.” – James Fontanella-Khan, [16:11]
  • Larry Ellison, a Trump backer, and Ted Sarandos (Netflix) both reportedly have access to the White House.
• Antitrust Arguments On Both Sides:
  • Netflix faces scrutiny as “the most well-known streamer...digesting the third-biggest streamer” (HBO Max), but Paramount’s combination also raises horizontal integration concerns that could lead to “more job cuts.” – Oliver Barnes, [16:35]
• Regulatory Calculus:
  • “Under Trump, the impossible suddenly becomes possible.” – James Fontanella-Khan, [17:36]

6. Predictions: Who Wins Warner?

[18:03-19:53]

• Oliver Barnes: Favors Paramount as the eventual winner, interpreting the hostile bid “as an entree to encourage...Warner to re engage with them.” He expects Paramount may further raise the bid, and believes the Ellisons’ deep pockets can go higher.
  • “If you look at the disclosures...this is not best and final. And we know the Ellisons have more cash.” – Oliver Barnes, [19:23]
• James Fontanella-Khan: Agrees, citing skepticism about Netflix’s appetite (already down $100B in market value due to the distraction):
  • “Netflix never really wanted this asset in the first place...Their shareholders are telling them, we don’t love this bid. Stick to what you know best, grow organically.” – James Fontanella-Khan, [19:49]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Nothing gets Wall Street and Wall Street journalists pumped up like a good old fashioned money fight. And we have a doozy going on right now.” – Rob Armstrong, [00:38]
• “It's a kind of, it's a plot fit for Hollywood, isn't it?” – Oliver Barnes, [02:11]
• “Their previous largest deal was a $900 million deal. Like the kind of build not buy philosophy.” – Oliver Barnes, [08:26]
• “They just blew them off and went with Netflix anyway.” – Rob Armstrong, [12:57]
• “Trump is making this process as political as he can get it. He said quite clearly that he's going to get involved, which usually you don't have a president getting involved in antitrust approvals.” – James Fontanella-Khan, [15:45]
• “Under Trump, the impossible suddenly becomes possible.” – James Fontanella-Khan, [17:36]
• “If you look at the disclosures...this is not best and final. And we know the Ellisons have more cash.” – Oliver Barnes, [19:23]

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Important Timestamps

• [02:11] – The Zaslav/Discovery/Warner origin story
• [04:02] – Ellisons enter the field, begin drama
• [07:33] – Comcast, Paramount, and Netflix line up
• [09:37] – Netflix stuns with an aggressive play
• [10:24] – Paramount responds with increased, all-cash offer
• [13:23] – Paramount’s hostile public bid and regulatory strategy
• [13:56] – Politics: Kushner, Trump, and the antitrust calculus
• [18:03] – Host and guests make bold predictions on who will win
• [19:49] – Analysis on Netflix’s buyer’s remorse and shareholder concerns

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Tone

The tone is sharp, wry, conversational, and infused with both financial seriousness and the hosts’ affable skepticism about dealmaking grandiosity and Hollywood intrigue.

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Additional Segments: “Long and Short”

Not directly tied to the episode’s main theme, but worth summarizing for tone and insight:

• Oliver Barnes: “Going long cinema”—predicts indie filmmakers will thrive amid consolidation, regardless of the deal’s outcome [20:58].
• James Fontanella-Khan: “Shorting Christmas”—choosing seaside relaxation over holiday tradition, teasingly labeled the show’s “Grinch” [21:31].

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Conclusion

This episode captures a gripping chapter in the business of Hollywood—where financial engineering, boardroom drama, political power plays, and strategic storytelling converge. Listeners get both a step-by-step recounting of the Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition fight and a lively debate on where the chips might fall, all delivered in the signature witty, insider style of “Unhedged.”

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Transcript

[PGIM Representative]

At pjum, we actively manage risk today while targeting outperformance tomorrow. So no matter what investment risks concern you most. From geopolitics to inflation to liquidity, PGM brings disciplined risk management expertise that spans 30 market cycles. Our active approach finds opportunities and volatility helping our clients to navigate risk and achieve their long term goals. Pjum our investments shape tomorrow today.

[Rob Armstrong]

Pushkin.

Nothing gets Wall street and Wall street journalists pumped up like a good old fashioned money fight. And we have a doozy going on right now. The target is Warner Brothers Discovery. The contenders are Netflix and Amount today on the show the future of entertainment and the dynamics of deal making. This is Unhedged, the markets and finance podcast from the Financial Times and Pushkin. I am Rob Armstrong coming to you from a frigidly cold New York City. And I am joined by the Butch Cassidy and Sundance Kid of deal journalism Shaped or possibly the Statler and Waldorf.

[Oliver Barnes]

James Dustin Hutch, which one of those is a Warner asset? That's the only thing that matters.

[Rob Armstrong]

Yeah. James Fontanella Khan is the US Financial Editor of the Financial Times and the Sundance Kid is our US Deal editor.

[Oliver Barnes]

Oliver Barnes, deal correspondent. Deal.

[Rob Armstrong]

I was trying to promote.

[Oliver Barnes]

Can I be deal's editor?

[James Fontanella-Khan]

It's up for graph.

[Oliver Barnes]

Maybe after this.

[Rob Armstrong]

Okay, there, this is one of these shows where there's so much to talk about that the hard thing is what we're gonna leave out. But this all culminated on Monday with this hostile bid. But let's go back to the beginning. Where did the whole saga of who gets to buy Warner Discovery begin?

[Oliver Barnes]

Yeah, where does the lineage of this all start? I mean, it's a kind of, it's a plot fit for Hollywood, isn't it? David Zaslav, who's this kind of larger than life figure in Hollywood, Warner CEO. He's the Warner Discovery CEO. He creates Warner Discovery by kind of merging his less sexy cable company Discovery into this storied movie studio, Warner Brothers a few years ago. And that company underperforms and then Zaslav hatches a plan to break up that company and spin off the cable assets. You know, the CNNs of the world, the Discovery, Animal Planet, these are, these are die.

[Rob Armstrong]

These are wasting assets.

[Oliver Barnes]

Exactly. To break those apart from the studio asset which is behind, you know, Harry Potter and the DC Comics franchise and the streaming service HBO Max.

[Rob Armstrong]

I'm a subscriber, so I like it.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

Yeah, I might.

[Oliver Barnes]

Yeah, yeah, very good. And also, you know, pretty affordable.

[Rob Armstrong]

And just. I'm going to make you pause there. Let Me, I just want to set some financial context for our listener. So over the last six months, Warner Brothers discovery is up 190%. Would you care to guess what it is? Up over five years? 3%. Right. So this is. It's interesting.

[Oliver Barnes]

It's value creation. Right.

[Rob Armstrong]

Until there was a dog fight over this asset.

[Oliver Barnes]

Yeah.

[Rob Armstrong]

It was a struggling stock.

[Oliver Barnes]

Yeah.

[Rob Armstrong]

Which is kind of interesting.

[Oliver Barnes]

And that was the genus of the breakup. And the breakup took on different forms. And I think initially he was going to spin the. The studio and streaming assets off, and then it reversed.

[Rob Armstrong]

Good stuff. Was.

[Oliver Barnes]

And then it was getting rid of the less sexy assets. But then simultaneous to this, this is.

[Rob Armstrong]

Sort of this summer that the breakup is happening.

[Oliver Barnes]

Yeah. The breakup was officially announced over summer.

[Rob Armstrong]

Yeah.

[Oliver Barnes]

Simultaneous. This. You have another kind of theme and story unfolding in Hollywood, which is that the Ellison family, Larry Ellison, the founder of Oracle, one of the world's richest men. I think he was the world's rich man. Maybe changed in the last few years.

[Rob Armstrong]

Translations of the stock market.

[Oliver Barnes]

And his and his son, David Ellison, are going and building a new Hollywood powerhouse. They've merged together. Sky Dance, the company that they created.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

Well, it was David's company, a production company behind the Mission Impossible and a bunch of other.

[Oliver Barnes]

They merged that with Paramount again, one of the storied Hollywood movie studios. But Paramount small, and they're the Ellisons, and they've got big, big ambitions. So they're looking at what's going on with Warner and they're like, this is a neat fit.

[Rob Armstrong]

Yeah.

[Oliver Barnes]

For. For. For our mouse eating this elephant. For our. Us growing into a bigger size mouse, if you will.

[Rob Armstrong]

Yeah.

[Oliver Barnes]

And they kick all this off with a bid out of the blue delivered by David Ellison to David Zaslav's home in. In Hollywood.

[Rob Armstrong]

Yes.

[Oliver Barnes]

Which was owned by the former Paramount boss. I mean, it's a script.

[Rob Armstrong]

I know.

[Oliver Barnes]

Writing room.

[Rob Armstrong]

What kind of car did he drive over there? It's like a classic convertible, like some.

[Oliver Barnes]

Old Chevy or something. I don't know. I doubt it.

[Rob Armstrong]

Okay, so at this point. So a bid is in at this point and where are we at that.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

Time point was about 19 bucks, something like that.

[Oliver Barnes]

Yeah. So the bid gets upped a bunch of times, but the first bid, I think came in. Yeah, it was. It was under 20 bucks.

[Rob Armstrong]

And that's this in the autumn. At some point this is happening.

[Oliver Barnes]

Yeah, this happens in September.

[Rob Armstrong]

Okay, great. So there's a bid in and also.

[Oliver Barnes]

Immediately hits the public domain.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

This.

[Oliver Barnes]

This whole process has unfolded in the public domain. And that's why it's not entirely surprising that they've gone hostile. Like this is all being litigated in the media and it's a big media.

[Rob Armstrong]

You know, and we're grateful to take a moment to thank all the players. Thank you for being so noisy about this. So, and how's that initial bid received and what's, what's the next step? Jfk?

[James Fontanella-Khan]

It wasn't received very well. I mean, Zaz, as he's referred to, said, not interested. We're going to keep on with our plan to split the company. But then the pressure kept on growing and at some point, as Ollie was referring to, they kind of changed the split and they decide to spin off the cable, the kind of. The less performing assets, CNN and whatnot, and to keep under the Warner Discovery umbrella the kind of streaming and studio business. And the reason they did that was to attract precisely the interest of the Netflixes, the Amazons, the Apples of the world.

[Rob Armstrong]

Yes.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

And they did come.

[Rob Armstrong]

Yeah.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

And at that point we're around October.

[Rob Armstrong]

Yeah. When does Netflix appear on the scene here?

[James Fontanella-Khan]

Around that time. I mean, essentially Warner announces a kind of. We're kind of looking at alternative options. Strategic alternatives is a classic term, which means we're putting ourselves up for sale.

[Rob Armstrong]

Yes.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

And at that point Netflix hires bankers, Comcast hires bankers. And then there's a lot of noise, as Ollie referred earlier. But what emerges quite early on is that there's three bidders. The first one is Paramount, the second one is Comcast.

[Rob Armstrong]

Let's pause on Comcast for a second. Tell us what Comcast is.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

Comcast is the most traditional, if you want, rival to Warner Brothers in terms of it has a studio, it has traditional tv, it has cable. So that's kind of. And they had also, in their own right, split their streaming and studio business from the traditional TV assets.

[Oliver Barnes]

And importantly, they've got a kind of not particularly well performing streaming service, which is Peacock. Do you subscribe to that?

[Rob Armstrong]

I do not.

[Oliver Barnes]

Well, there you go.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

I do.

[Oliver Barnes]

Oh, you do.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

But Premier League.

[Rob Armstrong]

Subscribe to everything.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

Premier League?

[Rob Armstrong]

No, they have Premier League.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

Yeah.

[Rob Armstrong]

Okay, so and the third bidder, and.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

The third bidder, which was the most surprising one in many ways was Netflix.

[Rob Armstrong]

Why would that be a surprise? It seems like a natural.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

So first of all, Netflix has never done real big M and A. In fact, I can't recall of any major M and A.

[Oliver Barnes]

Biggest ever deal was a $900 million deal. Like the kind of build not buy philosophy.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

I mean, you were in L. A, Ollie. Was it what were people thinking about Netflix participating in this?

[Oliver Barnes]

Well, the interesting thing was, I think everyone discounted that Netflix would win this for a long period of time. But when you spoke to people who kind of had, like, run the numbers, the Netflix deal kind of made most sense. It gave them what they wanted. Right. Which was.

[Rob Armstrong]

And they have tremendously valuable equity. Right. They have a currency. Correct here.

[Oliver Barnes]

Yeah.

[Rob Armstrong]

They can give shares. But let's not get. Let's not move too far away from.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

We'll get back to that equity.

[Rob Armstrong]

We'll get back to equity before very long.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

Could I just add one more thing, though, about Netflix. There was even internally, their CEO, Ted Sarandos, had said around the beginning of the auction that, you know, they were looking at it, but they weren't that interested. Also, the other fact that was slightly a bit of a distraction or maybe, or was that Reed Hastings, the founder of. Of Netflix, didn't seem particularly enthusiastic about a deal.

[Rob Armstrong]

And so what's next in the timeline? Now we have three bidders on stage and Netflix comes in with an offer that is very compelling. But how does it play out?

[James Fontanella-Khan]

Well, on Thursday night, it kind of emerges.

[Rob Armstrong]

The.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

Like Netflix's last Thursday. Yes, last Thursday. They're in. Essentially, they're the winner. They're in exclusive talks and there's a rush to get the deal closed. And that's where some of the kind of tension with Paramount kind of emerges because they feel, why are we rushing this thing? And.

[Oliver Barnes]

And they ghosted them for the whole of Thursday.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

Absolutely. On that day.

[Rob Armstrong]

Who ghosted who?

[James Fontanella-Khan]

So on Thursday, before a key board meeting at Warner, to the point that Ollie was making earlier, the Paramount camp starts feeling there's something weird. They're not really giving us any feedback on the latest bid, which was at 30 bucks per share.

The last time that I'd heard from Warner, they were told, point number one, cash is king. So we want an offer which is primarily in cash, ideally entirely in cash. Second, we want certainty of closure.

And then they had raised some issues around the funding of Paramount's deal. What they referred to in that case was that some of the money backing Paramount's bid came from the Middle east. And so there was a concern over.

The approval of that deal from a national security perspective. So the way Paramount addresses those concerns are threefold. They increase the cash bid. It's entirely cash. Second, on antitrust, they said that they have backing, that their offer is safer than Netflix's, which is seen as the main rival at this point. And obviously their close ties to the Trump administration are indication that, you know, they're well positioned.

[Rob Armstrong]

Yes.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

And thirdly, on the cash coming from the Middle east, from Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Abu Dhabi. And in addition to that, there's the backing from Jared Kushner, who was unknown until then, and he's basically using his fund affinity partners to back the bid. And he permanently says, none of these people or none of these entities from the Middle east, plus Jared Kushner would have any governance rights or board seats, what that means.

[Rob Armstrong]

So are they just saying, Zaslav, you'll still run the whole thing?

[James Fontanella-Khan]

No, what they tell Zaslav is that he will become co CEO of the new Paramount, Warner Brothers kind of entity. So along David Ellison.

[Rob Armstrong]

That was kind of along with David Ellison. That's very interesting.

[Oliver Barnes]

And that's when Netflix seals the deal.

[Rob Armstrong]

So despite all this.

[Oliver Barnes]

Yeah. Despite all the kind of head fakes along the way where they'd said, you know, we don't really do big deals. And.

[Rob Armstrong]

Yes.

[Oliver Barnes]

And I think a lot of people were skeptical for the antitrust questions over Netflix that they could ever get this done. They did it. I think it's the biggest media deal in. Well, it's the biggest deal of the year.

[Rob Armstrong]

And this is what forces Paramount to go hostile.

[Oliver Barnes]

Exactly.

[Rob Armstrong]

This improved bid.

[Oliver Barnes]

Exactly.

[Rob Armstrong]

It's all in cash. They've talked about security of ownership. They've said, we will give up our governance rights to you. And they just blew them off.

[Oliver Barnes]

Yeah.

[Rob Armstrong]

And went with Netflix anyway.

[Oliver Barnes]

Yeah.

[Rob Armstrong]

And so it's. It's like they were. They had to go hostile. They. They weren't picking up the phone.

[Oliver Barnes]

Exactly.

[Rob Armstrong]

And the, the hostile bid, just to close the loop that we got this week on Monday, did that improve the term still further? That bid from Paramount, it's an exact.

[Oliver Barnes]

Replica of the bid that they submitted on December 4th.

[Rob Armstrong]

It's the only difference is they're taking it directly to the shareholders.

[Oliver Barnes]

Exactly right. With that hostile bid came a very detailed regulatory filing from Paramount. Right. Which is, in a sense, one of the advantages of them going to shareholders, which is they get their story out there. We see every blow by blow account from their perspective.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

Including text messages.

[Oliver Barnes]

Including text messages. And what you see in that is there's a degree of kind of desperation emerging from the Paramount camp in the, in the few days before Netflix wins this. And you can, you can understand why perhaps they feel a bit slighted by Warner.

[Rob Armstrong]

This is where we pivot to politics. Right. Because they might have reasoned under the Trump administration, antitrust enforcement with big deals is dead. No one is going to stop the already dominant Netflix from buying more muscle in the streaming market and more brands of content. Because Trump is pro Wall street and pro deals, which is what makes it so clever of the Paramount camp to get the president's son in law involved on their side of the bid. I mean, it feels like it's a brilliant. I mean, we may have thoughts about whether this is all totally ethical or it smells slightly of corruption or whatever, but it feels like a pretty smart move to me.

[Oliver Barnes]

To be clear, though, Jared Kushner is not the only person who can put a call into Trump. We have a ton of people in this situation who are putting calls into Trump. I mean, Trump said over the weekend that he recently had dinner with Ted. Or did he have dinner with Ted Sarandos?

[James Fontanella-Khan]

He met with Ted Sarandos.

[Oliver Barnes]

He met with Ted Sarandos, you know.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

And he met with the Ellisons.

[Oliver Barnes]

Ellison's one of his. He's a backer of Trump.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

Larry is.

[Oliver Barnes]

He's given like the father has given money to Trump. So clearly there's a whole bunch of people who think they can put a call into the White House, but none.

[Rob Armstrong]

Of them are related to the guy. None of those other ones are married to Trump's daughter.

[Oliver Barnes]

Fair.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

It definitely doesn't hurt.

[Rob Armstrong]

Yeah, yeah. But I say one thing is put a seed of doubt in the Warner Discoveries board's mind. Right.

[Oliver Barnes]

But it hasn't done that.

[Rob Armstrong]

It hasn't.

[Oliver Barnes]

That's the point. Like, it hasn't actually, like in pressing their Trump button, and we've discussed this on the podcast before of like, you know, activating the political side of deals. Theirs hasn't succeeded so far at least in convincing the Warner Warner board of the merits of this.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

What is interesting though is like Trump is making this process as political as he can get it. He said quite clearly that he's going to get involved, which usually you don't have a president getting involved in antitrust approvals. On the flip side, though, to Ali's point, he's been weirdly level headed because he said, yeah, Netflix has a big market share. I think that's kind of hard to deny. And he said.

[Rob Armstrong]

The president said this.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

The president said that he's getting technical, but he also said we probably need an economist to kind of look into this.

[Oliver Barnes]

He also said neither of these guys are my friends. Right.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

He said that the following day because in the moment when he said that, like, oh, there could be a problem, he also said that Ted Sarande is a great guy.

[Oliver Barnes]

He's like Change Hollywood for the better kind of thing. Yeah.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

So it's like, it's, that's the thing with Trump, you never know. Right.

[Oliver Barnes]

And not that Trump's going to get like down into the details here, but he has a point on a technical level. And can I just say this, which is talking to a bunch of antitrust people over the past few days, which is Netflix. Yeah. You can see the antitrust argument against it. They are the most well known streamer, the biggest streamer in terms of number of subscribers, digesting the third biggest streamer, HBO Max, which also undercuts Netflix in terms of price. Right. Okay. So you can understand the antitrust argument against them, but there's also an antitrust argument against the Paramount camp. There's also horizontal integration happening there. Paramount, a massive movie studio in Hollywood, is buying another large movie studio in Hollywood. And that the Netflix camp argue will probably lead to a whole lot more job cuts. Right. It's not like super cut and dry where it's like Netflix probably has the more antitrust concerns, but it's not. I agree just purely on Netflix.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

The way I see it is this still would have never happened with the previous administration, of course, either of them. And that's kind of an important factor that brings to your earlier point. People feel that under Trump, the impossible suddenly becomes possible.

[Rob Armstrong]

We've talked a lot here, given listeners a lot to chew on. I just want to end and go to the break by asking you who's going to get Warner Discovery prediction time?

[Oliver Barnes]

I think Paramount. Why has Paramount gone to shareholders? Number one, they want to put their narrative out there. Number two, they, they force Netflix to put out, which will be coming in the next few days, a very detailed disclosure about what this looks like for WBD shelters because they're going to own Netflix shares. So that there'll be, there'll be information about Netflix in there, there'll be information about Warner and their negotiations with Netflix. So there's a whole load of information coming out. Right. But why have they really done this? I think this is as an entree to encourage or you could say kind of coax Warner to re engage with them. In the dying days of that process, Warner went cool on Paramount for whatever reason. Maybe it's taking their calls, maybe it's the personal dynamics, maybe it's. They legitimately thought it was a worse deal. Whatever, Whatever. But they are now, they have now gone public to create an environment where Warner now re engaged in them. Very rarely do you see tender offers go through as tender offers. Right. I would put a large amount of money that is not going to happen. But I think what does happen is Warner at some point re engages with Paramount. And if you look at the disclosures, the filings of Paramount and some of the text messages that go back and forth and indeed what David Ellison said on cnbc, this is not best and final. And that implies they have more cash. And we know the Ellisons have more cash.

[Rob Armstrong]

Infinite cash, you know what I mean?

[Oliver Barnes]

Maybe not infinite, but like a lot.

[Rob Armstrong]

More infinite to me. Jfk, do you agree with all that?

[James Fontanella-Khan]

I tend to agree with all these kind of reading. We will have to see Paramount increasing its bid. And then on the flip side, Netflix never really wanted this asset in the first place. They've already lost about $100 billion in market value. So they could have bought.

[Rob Armstrong]

So their shareholders are telling them, we don't love this bid.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

Stick to what you know best. Grow organically.

[Rob Armstrong]

Listeners will be right back with Long and short.

[PGIM Representative]

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[Rob Armstrong]

Welcome back. This is Long and Short, that portion of the show where we go long things we like and short things we don't like. Oliver, what do you got for us?

[Oliver Barnes]

I'm going long cinema.

[Rob Armstrong]

Really?

[Oliver Barnes]

And I'll tell you why. I was having a discussion with a friend the other day as a filmmaker and he was saying when you look back in the history books of Hollywood, when the movie studios have not always delivered the great art and when there's been moments of consolidation and stuff like that, and the movie studios have been all powerful, actually the indies have had a great moment in the sun. So actually, I think weirdly, whatever we end up with here, whether it's Paramount the winner or Netflix, I think better movies we're going to get artistic, beautiful movies made by independent filmmakers.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

Hell yeah.

[Rob Armstrong]

Jfk, what do you say?

[James Fontanella-Khan]

I'm shorting Christmas.

[Oliver Barnes]

Oh ho ho ho.

[Rob Armstrong]

What? I didn't. I had no idea we had a Grinch or a Scrooge in the studio. Why?

[James Fontanella-Khan]

I'm going to the seaside and like enjoying life.

[Rob Armstrong]

Yeah.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

And not on the beach.

[Rob Armstrong]

And you're not going to be sitting in front of the crowd.

[James Fontanella-Khan]

Hey, present all that. Yeah.

[Rob Armstrong]

Listeners, whether you are spending Christmas by the seaside or in front of a Christmas tree. We hope you will listen in on Thursday when we will be back in your streams. Until then, stay sharp out there. Unhedged is produced by Jake Harper and edited by Bryant Urstadt. Our Executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. Topher forges is the FT's acting co head of Audio. Special thanks to Laura Clark, Alistair Mackey, Greta Cohn and Natalie Sadler. FT Premium subscribers can get the Unhedged newsletter for free. A 30 day free trial is available to everyone else. Just go to ft.com unedged offer I'm Rob Armstrong. Thanks for listening.