Unhedged Podcast Summary

Episode: Who Gets to Buy Warner Bros. Discovery?
Date: December 9, 2025
Hosts: Rob Armstrong, Oliver Barnes, James Fontanella-Khan
Theme:
A deep dive into the ongoing acquisition battle for Warner Bros. Discovery, featuring a play-by-play of the deal's plot twists, the cast of bidders (Netflix, Paramount, Comcast), and the complicated web of corporate strategy, media politics, and financial intrigue underpinning one of the decade’s most dramatic M&A showdowns.

Episode Overview

The episode unpacks the recent, highly-publicized contest to buy Warner Bros. Discovery, focusing on the mechanics of the deal, the strategies and motivations of the main bidders, and the broader implications for Hollywood and the streaming industry. The discussion brings together both financial insight and Hollywood storytelling flair, examining the roles of key personalities, intriguing dealmaking tactics, and political entanglements—culminating in bold predictions on the deal’s outcome.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Saga’s Origin: Warner’s Troubles Set the Stage

[02:11-04:02]

• David Zaslav, Warner Bros. Discovery CEO, merged Discovery with Warner Bros. in an initially underperforming union.
• Zaslav then explored breaking up the company, separating the legacy cable assets (“CNNs of the world, Discovery, Animal Planet—these are dying assets” – Oliver Barnes, [02:51]) from the valuable studio and streaming business (Harry Potter, DC, HBO Max).
• Financial Context:
  • Warner Bros. Discovery stock saw explosive short-term growth (up 190% in 6 months), but only 3% total over five years.
    • “Until there was a dog fight over this asset, it was a struggling stock.” – Rob Armstrong, [03:33]

2. The Arrival of Suitors and the Birth of a Bidding War

[04:02-07:33]

• Ellison Family Moves: Larry and David Ellison attempt to build a Hollywood powerhouse by merging SkyDance (behind Mission Impossible) with Paramount, and set sights on Warner.
  • David Ellison delivers an out-of-the-blue bid to Zaslav’s home (“It’s a plot fit for Hollywood, isn’t it?” – Oliver Barnes, [02:11])
• The First Bid:
  • Initial Ellison/Paramount bid comes in at under $20 per share around September.
  • The process unfolds very publicly, fueling media and shareholder drama.
• Warner’s Response:
  • Zaslav initially rebuffs the offer, focusing on strategic spinoffs to attract tech interest (Netflix, Amazon, Apple).

3. The Rise of Multiple Bidders: Comcast, Paramount, and Netflix Step In

[07:33-09:28]

• Comcast emerges as a “most traditional rival”, owns studio, TV, cable, and the struggling streaming service Peacock.
• Netflix surprises everyone by entering the bidding, despite a longstanding “build, not buy” philosophy.
  • “Netflix has never done real big M and A.” – James Fontanella-Khan, [08:19]
  • Their previous largest deal was only $900 million.
• Industry Skepticism:
  • Most in Hollywood initially dismiss Netflix’s chances, but “when you spoke to people who had run the numbers, the Netflix deal kind of made most sense. It gave them what they wanted.” – Oliver Barnes, [08:36]

4. The Bidding Intensifies: Terms, Cash, and Antitrust

[09:28-13:40]

• The Crunch Moment:
  • As Netflix enters exclusive negotiations, Paramount is left feeling iced out—“And they ghosted them for the whole of Thursday.” – Oliver Barnes, [10:00]
  • Paramount increases its bid to $30 per share, all in cash (response to Warner’s priorities: “cash is king” and certainty of closure).
  • Paramount tries to reassure on regulatory risk; money is backed by Middle Eastern funds and Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners, but “none of these entities...would have any governance rights or board seats.” – James Fontanella-Khan, [11:25]
  • Zaslav is offered a co-CEO position should Paramount win.
• Netflix Still Wins:
  • Despite Paramount’s improved bid, Warner’s board chooses to go with the Netflix offer, seen as cleaner, faster, and strategically aligned.
  • This snub leads to Paramount’s “hostile” public bid—a tender offer taken directly to shareholders.
    • “They just blew them off and went with Netflix anyway.” – Rob Armstrong, [12:57]

5. The Political Dimension: Trump, Antitrust, and Powerbrokers

[13:56-17:36]

• Political Leveraging:
  • Paramount’s team engages Jared Kushner and highlights their alignment with the Trump administration, expecting regulatory favor.
    • “Activating the political side of deals. Theirs hasn’t succeeded so far at least in convincing the Warner board.” – Oliver Barnes, [15:28]
• Trump’s Unpredictability:
  • Trump openly comments on the deal and antitrust issues, but is publicly equivocal:
    - “He said, yeah, Netflix has a big market share...We probably need an economist to look into this.” – James Fontanella-Khan, [16:11]
  • Larry Ellison, a Trump backer, and Ted Sarandos (Netflix) both reportedly have access to the White House.
• Antitrust Arguments On Both Sides:
  • Netflix faces scrutiny as “the most well-known streamer...digesting the third-biggest streamer” (HBO Max), but Paramount’s combination also raises horizontal integration concerns that could lead to “more job cuts.” – Oliver Barnes, [16:35]
• Regulatory Calculus:
  • “Under Trump, the impossible suddenly becomes possible.” – James Fontanella-Khan, [17:36]

6. Predictions: Who Wins Warner?

[18:03-19:53]

• Oliver Barnes: Favors Paramount as the eventual winner, interpreting the hostile bid “as an entree to encourage...Warner to re engage with them.” He expects Paramount may further raise the bid, and believes the Ellisons’ deep pockets can go higher.
  • “If you look at the disclosures...this is not best and final. And we know the Ellisons have more cash.” – Oliver Barnes, [19:23]
• James Fontanella-Khan: Agrees, citing skepticism about Netflix’s appetite (already down $100B in market value due to the distraction):
  • “Netflix never really wanted this asset in the first place...Their shareholders are telling them, we don’t love this bid. Stick to what you know best, grow organically.” – James Fontanella-Khan, [19:49]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Nothing gets Wall Street and Wall Street journalists pumped up like a good old fashioned money fight. And we have a doozy going on right now.” – Rob Armstrong, [00:38]
• “It's a kind of, it's a plot fit for Hollywood, isn't it?” – Oliver Barnes, [02:11]
• “Their previous largest deal was a $900 million deal. Like the kind of build not buy philosophy.” – Oliver Barnes, [08:26]
• “They just blew them off and went with Netflix anyway.” – Rob Armstrong, [12:57]
• “Trump is making this process as political as he can get it. He said quite clearly that he's going to get involved, which usually you don't have a president getting involved in antitrust approvals.” – James Fontanella-Khan, [15:45]
• “Under Trump, the impossible suddenly becomes possible.” – James Fontanella-Khan, [17:36]
• “If you look at the disclosures...this is not best and final. And we know the Ellisons have more cash.” – Oliver Barnes, [19:23]

Important Timestamps

• [02:11] – The Zaslav/Discovery/Warner origin story
• [04:02] – Ellisons enter the field, begin drama
• [07:33] – Comcast, Paramount, and Netflix line up
• [09:37] – Netflix stuns with an aggressive play
• [10:24] – Paramount responds with increased, all-cash offer
• [13:23] – Paramount’s hostile public bid and regulatory strategy
• [13:56] – Politics: Kushner, Trump, and the antitrust calculus
• [18:03] – Host and guests make bold predictions on who will win
• [19:49] – Analysis on Netflix’s buyer’s remorse and shareholder concerns

Tone

The tone is sharp, wry, conversational, and infused with both financial seriousness and the hosts’ affable skepticism about dealmaking grandiosity and Hollywood intrigue.

Additional Segments: “Long and Short”

Not directly tied to the episode’s main theme, but worth summarizing for tone and insight:

• Oliver Barnes: “Going long cinema”—predicts indie filmmakers will thrive amid consolidation, regardless of the deal’s outcome [20:58].
• James Fontanella-Khan: “Shorting Christmas”—choosing seaside relaxation over holiday tradition, teasingly labeled the show’s “Grinch” [21:31].

Conclusion

This episode captures a gripping chapter in the business of Hollywood—where financial engineering, boardroom drama, political power plays, and strategic storytelling converge. Listeners get both a step-by-step recounting of the Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition fight and a lively debate on where the chips might fall, all delivered in the signature witty, insider style of “Unhedged.”