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Katie Martin
At pjum, we actively manage risk today while targeting outperformance tomorrow. So no matter what investment risks concern you most. From geopolitics to inflation to liquidity, PGM brings disciplined risk management expertise that spans 30 market cycles. Our active approach finds opportunities and volatility, helping our clients to navigate risk and achieve their long term goals. PJUM our investments shape tomorrow today.
Robert Armstrong
Pushkin what a time to be alive when the President of the USA is dropping bombs, both real bombs and F bombs today and it's Tuesday. By the time you hear this, it may be Wednesday and everything might be different. But today Donald Trump says he's very unhappy with both Iran and Israel for disregarding the ceasefire and lasting peace he had broken the day before, saying the two sides have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the flip they're talking about. No potty mouth here. I've taken out the swearing listeners. We leave that to the President. Now, with all that going on, all that uncertainty and confusion, who on earth would want the responsibility of running the US Central bank, the Federal Reserve, when the top job comes up next spring? Not me, but lots of people do. And they're not all called Kevin, but it helps. Today on the show, we're looking at who is jostling for position. This is Unhedged, the markets and finance podcast from the Financial Times and Pushkin. I'm Katie Martin, a markets columnist here at FT Towers in lovely sunny but overly dry London. And I'm joined down the line by that fella who invented the taco train and let's not let him forget it. Robert Armstrong off of the Unhedged newsletter.
Rob Armstrong
Rob, how are you going in New York today? It is approximately the temperature of the surface of the sun. I soaked through my shirt twice on my commute.
Robert Armstrong
Yuck.
Rob Armstrong
Yeah, you put a cup of water outside, it just spontaneously starts to boil here.
Robert Armstrong
Now, Rob, I have a bone to pick with you regarding your Reddit AMA that you did yesterday.
Rob Armstrong
Yes, yes, I thought you were.
Robert Armstrong
Would you like to make any small confessions about that?
Rob Armstrong
I did tell. I did tell some stories about your superpowers.
Robert Armstrong
Somebody said to Rob on this Reddit, ask me anything. Please tell us something about Katie Martin that nobody knows, to which I only realized like an hour ago. He replied. Katie kills wild animals with a single glance. She can mix a martini blindfolded. She does black Scholes options pricing calculations in her head. She is a pubchain heiress who has renounced her inheritance for political reasons.
Rob Armstrong
Every word true, don't be modest, Katie.
Robert Armstrong
Like, you've got to stop trying to make people think that I am the daughter of Tim Martin from the Wetherspoons pub chain. Like the rest of it I can live with. But I am not Tim Martin's daughter.
Rob Armstrong
Okay, so you say, fair enough.
Robert Armstrong
Look, I'm going to get my own back one of these days. But let's get to the Fed. Fed, Fed, Fed. Now where are we? Trump called Jay Powell, who's the current chair of the Fed and who is leaving next spring. The other day Trump called him a numbskull and said maybe he, as in Trump will have to force something on rates. So force the Fed to cut interest rates.
Rob Armstrong
So Chair Powell is testifying before the U.S. congress today. And ahead of that testimony, the President said the following. I hope Congress really works this very dumb, hard headed person over. We will be paying for his incompetence for many years to come. So he's really laying into him. And I actually have a somewhat unconventional view of this, that this particular president mouthing off in this way about the chair of the Fed is actually fine. And I'll tell you why. Because Powell is the perfect guy to handle this. Right?
Robert Armstrong
He appointed Powell. Trump appointed Powell.
Rob Armstrong
First of all, he appointed Powell so it makes the President look slightly silly. And Powell has been so cool and so measured and so consistent in his communication that the whole back and forth just actually underlines the independence of the Fed under Powell rather than undermining that independence. Okay, how's that for a theory?
Robert Armstrong
It's not a terrible one. Yeah, but you know, the convention is that presidents don't get involved in monetary.
Rob Armstrong
Policy, but the convention is often violated in small or large ways.
Robert Armstrong
Yeah, conventions.
Rob Armstrong
Correct.
Robert Armstrong
But J.E. powell is very good at this. He's very good at absorbing the volleys that come from the President and simply not, not rising to it and just sticking to his mandate, sticking to his script. But if you know that you can be appointed by Trump and you can still get hung out to dry by him in a public forum and called an idiot on, you know, live on television. Why, why would you want this job?
Rob Armstrong
Well, it's an unholy, powerful job. It may be less powerful now than it once was, which is something we should discuss here. But just the reputation of the job is so immense. And if you do it well, you go down for all of history as a hero. The Fed chairs who do a great job, most prominently, of course, Paul Volcker, are like on economist Mount Rushmore. Right? They're the kind of heroes of the profession. So there's a chance for glory. There is immense power, or at the very least, the appearance of immense power. And you can follow Jay Powell's example. And when the President throws a tizzy, you play it cool.
Robert Armstrong
Yeah, play it cool, man. So Trump has said he's not gonna try and fire Powell. It's legally been determined that he can't fire Powell. So Powell is here until May. And so there's this funny little kind of, you know, my mate fancies you kind of flirting but not flirting thing that goes on when you make it known that maybe you wouldn't hate to be nominated for the Fed job if it came along. So what we're seeing now is a few people who would not hate to be nominated for the Fed job.
Rob Armstrong
Yes.
Robert Armstrong
Sort of, you know, getting themselves out there quite a lot.
Rob Armstrong
Now, Christopher Waller has been batting his eyelashes pretty aggressively, I would say.
Robert Armstrong
So he is one of the top contenders for the top job at the Fed. He already has a job at the Fed. He was saying straight after last week's decision by the Fed to hold rates that the Fed should start cutting in July. So what's going on there?
Rob Armstrong
Well, look, there is a case to be made if you are not that worried about tariff inflation. There are small cracks in the labor market. Small cracks. Labor market is still very good, but it's not getting better. And if you look closely at it, it's getting very, very slowly, a very little bit worse depending on how you read the data. So that is happening.
Robert Armstrong
It's worth stepping back just very slightly here because the US Central bank does stuff differently to a lot of other central bank. Most central banks, they just target inflation. They do what they can to try and keep inflation at or around or ideally a little bit below 2%. For the Fed, it's a little bit different because they have inflation to worry about, but they also explicitly have a mandate to support employment. So when you start to see the jobs market getting a little bit cracky, as you could argue we're seeing in the U.S. now, that can be a reason all on its own for the Fed to start cutting.
Rob Armstrong
Yes. Now, inflation getting better. Last inflation report. Good. Is inflation at the made up but still important 2% target? No. It does seem to be trending that direction, but it's not there. So the Fed is a bit stuck between its two mandates. And if you ask any Fed chair which mandate is more important, what are you going to, how are you going to prioritize or how are you going to choose? They in not so Many words say we don't know we're improvising here. Yes, they don't use those words.
Robert Armstrong
We're making this up as we go along, but looking very clever doing it.
Rob Armstrong
So the line from the Fed, which I think is fair enough, has been, look, the economy is basically strong here. Yep, inflation is going the right direction. We're not at target, so why don't we just wait and see what happens? The slogan is we can afford to wait. We're in the lucky position where we don't have to rush.
Robert Armstrong
But the mystery is because the difficulty is, yeah, the economy's doing fine. Inflation has been coming back towards target. But there's been this expectation that any minute now the effect of all the tariffs is going to kick in and inflation's going to rush higher and that's going to make it impossible for central banks, particularly the Fed, to cut. But where is the tariff inflation? Where is it?
Rob Armstrong
I mean, the theory goes that it takes time to show up because wholesalers and retailers have inventories purchased ahead of the tariffs. They will wait, knowing that the tariff situation is rather uncertain. They will try to keep prices where they are to hold market share in hopes that the higher tariffs will turn out to be a blip, et cetera, et cetera. But I agree, it's a thing that it hasn't really started to show up yet. And maybe our theories about this are wrong. Now, as Jay Powell said in the last press conference, at some point somebody has to pay these tariffs and the idea that it's not going to show up in consumer prices at all seems a bit far fetched that the importers and the manufacturers abroad would simply eat them. Maybe they're going to eat them more than we expected. Maybe tariff inflation won't be as bad as we thought. That's a possibility that has to be reckoned with. And I think that's what people like Waller are talking about.
Robert Armstrong
For now. It's really difficult to be like super declarative one way or another because we don't know what happens at the end of what is supposed to be a 90 day pause on the crazy full fat reciprocal liberation day tariffs from April 2. Like all things equal, that deadline runs out on July 9 and nobody knows with any degree of certainty what's going to happen. Do we go back to those original rates that, that were on the funny boards in the Rose Garden, or is that whole thing off? I mean, I don't know. You don't know? Nobody knows.
Rob Armstrong
Yes, but I will say this. A lot of people on the Internet said that Rob Armstrong is dumb this week after the President dropped a bomb on Iran. Because clearly this is not an instance of the President chickening out. And fair enough. However, I do think if heavy tariffs come in and the market rebels, the president will chicken out on the tariffs. I still believe that to be true.
Robert Armstrong
Yeah.
Rob Armstrong
You know, he may not have chickened out on Iran, but I still believe in the face of an angry bond market and angry stock market, he will find a way to moderate the tariffs until he is back in the market's good graces.
Robert Armstrong
Yep.
Rob Armstrong
So that is an argument that tariffs won't ultimately land at a level that. That is, that is terribly high.
Robert Armstrong
So if you bake all of that into your, into your view, which is we are past peak tariff nonsense and we can just get back to basics and the jobs market is cracking a little bit, inflation has been falling back towards target. We should start cutting. So that's the position of Christopher Waller, who is one of the contenders for the job. Then we have two Kevins who are in for the job. Now, the. The key contender here, the man to beat, is supposed to be Kevin Warsh.
Rob Armstrong
Yes.
Robert Armstrong
Who resigned in 2011. He's had some tough words for the Fed, particularly in recent weeks. Again, as part of this batting eyelashes as a. Oh, oh, there's a job going at the Fed. Oh, you might, you might consider me. Oh, oh, good heavens.
Rob Armstrong
I couldn't possibly.
Robert Armstrong
I couldn't possibly. I'll just go and give some speeches anyway. One of them, he was saying there's too much quantitative easing from the Fed back in the day. That was when they buy bonds to try and stimulate the economy. There was too much of a willingness to accommodate lax fiscal policy. There was too much mission creeping, going green and considering environmental concerns and that the Fed has lost some credibility and that has generated worse outcomes for our citizens.
Rob Armstrong
That last bit is that will all play very well in the White House, you can be sure, that kind of time.
Robert Armstrong
Well, that's the thing, though. It doesn't. It doesn't. To the extent that he's got zero tolerance of inflation, surely, if anything, he should be quite hawkish, which is the opposite of what Trump says he wants. That's why he's calling Jay Powell a numbskull, is that Powell is not cutting rates as quickly as he likes. So I kind of don't get why Kevin Walsh is the man to beat.
Rob Armstrong
I will intervene here with another unconventional and possibly incorrect view.
Robert Armstrong
There we go. Yeah, yeah.
Rob Armstrong
Which is that Trump is probably not as dovish as he sounds. In other words, he's not as much a low rates man as his rhetoric suggests because he has just watched his loathed predecessor Biden be bashed over the head. His administration basically destroyed by inflation. Is he really game to play that game of seeing how low rates can be pushed by appointing a big softie to the Fed job?
Robert Armstrong
But all things equal and, you know, long pause here, Trump doesn't have another term. What does he care what happens to the next guy?
Rob Armstrong
But still, if he wants to get anything done and just if he wants to be liked, he won't be liked if he presides over a rebound in inflation. The reason he likes complaining about Jay Powell is because he likes blaming other people for everything. It's not necessarily that strong a signal of his actual view about interest rates. It's a signal that that's the kind.
Robert Armstrong
Of guy he is so, so far in contention. We've got Christopher Waller, who's a cut rates now kind of guy. We have got the first Kevin, Kevin Walsh, who is a hawk, really, who is a bit of an inflation fighter. Then you've got another Kevin Hassett. Tell us about the other Kevin.
Rob Armstrong
Well, Kevin Hassett, who is the director of the National Economic Council, was at one point quite a conventional government economist and has kind of turned into a very enthusiastic proponent of Trump's economic ideas, especially tariffs. I've interviewed him once. I thought he was a pretty straightforward guy. If there was a rap against him, it's that he's a courtier who will kind of parrot whatever the President says. But maybe that goes down pretty well in these days and times.
Robert Armstrong
So second, Kevin Hassett, straightforward fella, you heard it here first. Now number four. Now this is quite a weird one, I think, is Scott Besant, who is currently the Treasury Secretary. Surely that just means a whole load of like, revolving doors and having to like, fill that position and da, da, da, can Trump be bothered with all that? But Bessant is again, he seems, you know, the line is, I'm very happy running Treasury. That's all good. You know, again, he seemed seen at least to be jostling. Is he a proper contender, do you think?
Rob Armstrong
I don't know. I think he's been quite ineffectual as Treasury Secretary. Not that he's done anything wrong, but in terms of public Persona, he's just the guy who explains what Trump has just done in the aftermath. That seems to be his job as Treasury Secretary. And he made a bit of a fuss about how Janet Yellen, his Predecessor was issuing more US debt at short maturities.
Robert Armstrong
And then guess what?
Rob Armstrong
This was a kind of naughty trick to suppress long term interest rates. And then he got the job and he did precisely the same thing.
Robert Armstrong
Yes, yes.
Rob Armstrong
So that maybe marks him out as a bit dovish, maybe, I don't know.
Robert Armstrong
In terms of being the guy who kind of gets out in front of the cameras and says, this is what Trump just did. That sort of reminds me of a phrase that a PR person introduced me to a few years ago, which is, you can't polish a turd, but you can roll it in glitter. And he's.
Rob Armstrong
I've never heard that before.
Robert Armstrong
It's a good one, isn't it?
Rob Armstrong
Yeah.
Robert Armstrong
He's that guy like rolling, rolling this policy in glitter and trying to make it look shiny and credible, which is a very difficult job a lot of the time. I don't know how ineffectual he has been.
Rob Armstrong
You think he's actually rolled it pretty, Pretty well?
Robert Armstrong
I think he's rolled it pretty well. And I think, look, Trump stepped back from the most aggressive tariffs after the bond market started to get a little bit wobbly. I find it impossible to believe that Trump was watching the long end of the Treasury's market particularly closely and the outcome of, you know, everyday bond auctions particularly closely during that period. I think the person telling him, sir, the bond market's got a problem with this very likely to have been Scott Best. I think we can credit him with having helped to turn the President away from some of his more aggressive tactics.
Rob Armstrong
Besant may also have the very important White House job of making up excuses to keep Peter Navarro out of the Oval Office. Like, your mother called. She's on the phone downstairs.
Robert Armstrong
Quick, quick.
Rob Armstrong
Oh, did you see? There's an elephant walking down the street.
Robert Armstrong
Go look, you better run now. Peter Navarro. And then quickly shuts the door and tells Trump that the bond market has gone loopy and he's got to step back. Yeah. Peter Navarro, for those who are not familiar with the kind of ins and outs of the White House, is very much the guy who's been driving the more aggressive terrorist side.
Rob Armstrong
Correct.
Robert Armstrong
First of all, who's your money on? Out of those four men, two of them called Kevin. You're not allowed to just say Kevin Waller. You're allowed to say which Kevin you think?
Rob Armstrong
Waller now Waller. Yep. I think he's singing from the right hymnal for the moment, which is rates are too high. He's respectable. I think you're right that Kevin's probably. Aren't ideal. And so this is the guy and.
Robert Armstrong
Bessant is busy rolling things in glitter. So maybe yes, maybe all of the none. What I would just say though is Trump loves a surprise and he does. Don't fall off your chair if someone shiny off the TV just ends up being like plonked into the room.
Rob Armstrong
Yeah. Are we out of Fox News hosts for him to appoint to things after.
Robert Armstrong
The rip roaring success of Pete Hegsen? In defense, who else can you think of? And say what you like about Hegsluth, but he does have very good hair.
Rob Armstrong
I think we could man, is that good hair.
Robert Armstrong
He's great hair. So there could be someone else out there with great hair who we just have not considered. Listeners, if you can think of anyone with great hair who might be good at the Fed job, let us know unhedged.com but we are going to be back in just one second with long shorts.
Katie Martin
Bonds are back and so is all the Credit PGIM Fixed Income's monthly podcast series. From the latest trends to long term perspectives, you'll get timely fixed income insights from leading economists, research analysts and investment professionals. Whether you're new to bonds or a seasoned investor. Tune in to all the credit wherever you get your podcasts. This podcast is intended solely for professional investor use. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Robert Armstrong
Okie dokie. It's time for Long Short, that part of the show where we go long a thing we love or short a thing we hate. Rob what you got?
Rob Armstrong
Katie I'm Long Restaurant Inflation. I wrote about this a little bit last week. Matt Klein over at the Overshoot Finance writer I much admire, pointed out that we have seen a little bump in restaurant pricing, and restaurants are kind of the ultimate discretionary item.
Robert Armstrong
No one's going to.
Rob Armstrong
They're very. Yeah, no. And yet inflation is going up there, and restaurant inflation has been a good leading indicator in the past. So I think something may be going on there that may be the first kind of canary in the coal mine of inflation. I'll be watching it closely and I will.
Robert Armstrong
You'll be watching it closely by going for lots of dinners. Correct.
Rob Armstrong
I have eaten at Taco Bell twice in the last couple of days.
Robert Armstrong
Did they give you a freebie?
Rob Armstrong
No. What are you long and short?
Robert Armstrong
Katie I'm Long Gardening. This is a very important week. Rob Armstrong I'm involved in community gardening. Humblebrag. And the judging for the London in Bloom community gardening competitions is on Friday. Me and my friend Penny, who is a new listener to the Unhedged podcast. We sort of, you know, busy ourselves about on the street, tidying things up and making things look pretty.
Rob Armstrong
What's your signature plant Kitty?
Robert Armstrong
Probably a hot lip salvia. It's the only thing I can grow from cuttings, so for those reasons, that's my favorite plant. Lots of other plants are very mean to me, but a hot lip salvia is generally the way to go. And on that extremely important point, we're gonna have to wrap it up and we are going to be back in everyone's feeds on Thursday. So make sure you listen up then. Unhedged is produced by Jake Harper and edited by Bryan Urstadt. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. We had additional help from Topa Forj. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's global head of Audio. Special thanks to Laura Clark, Alistair Mackey, Greta Cohn and Natalie Sadler. FT Premium subscribers can get the Unhedged newsletter for free. A 30 day free trial is available to everyone else. Just go to ft.com unhedgedoffer I'm Katie Martin. Thanks for listening.
Podcast Summary: Unhedged - "Who Wants to Be a Fed Chair?"
Episode Information:
In the June 24, 2025 episode of Unhedged, hosted by Katie Martin and Robert Armstrong from the Financial Times, the discussion centers around the impending vacancy of the Federal Reserve Chair position. The conversation delves into the potential candidates vying for the role, the current economic climate, and the intricate dynamics between the Federal Reserve and the White House.
Robert Armstrong sets the stage by highlighting the volatile geopolitical environment and its impact on financial markets. Referencing recent tensions involving the U.S., Iran, and Israel, Armstrong underscores the uncertainty that surrounds the economic outlook.
"[...] with all that uncertainty and confusion, who on earth would want the responsibility of running the US Central bank, the Federal Reserve, when the top job comes up next spring?" ([00:36])
The hosts discuss Jerome Powell's current role as the Federal Reserve Chair, appointed by former President Donald Trump. Despite recent criticisms from Trump, Armstrong and Martin argue that Powell has adeptly maintained the Fed's independence.
"Powell has been so cool and so measured and so consistent in his communication that the whole back and forth just actually underlines the independence of the Fed under Powell rather than undermining that independence." ([04:20])
They emphasize Powell's ability to withstand presidential pressure, positioning him as a stabilizing figure in tumultuous times.
The episode identifies several key contenders for the Fed Chair position:
Waller is portrayed as a proponent of cutting interest rates, citing slight improvements and potential weaknesses in the labor market as justifications.
"If you look closely at it, it's getting very, very slowly, a very little bit worse depending on how you read the data." ([07:17])
Warsh, a former Fed official who resigned in 2011, is characterized by his critical stance on the Fed's past policies, including excessive quantitative easing and mission creep.
"There's too much quantitative easing from the Fed back in the day... the Fed has lost some credibility and that has generated worse outcomes for our citizens." ([13:06])
Despite his critiques, Warsh remains a strong candidate due to his reputation and experience.
Serving as the Director of the National Economic Council, Hassett is seen as a staunch supporter of Trump's economic policies, particularly tariffs. His alignment with the administration's views positions him as a potential nominee.
"He's a courtier who will kind of parrot whatever the President says." ([16:12])
Besant, the current Treasury Secretary, is perceived as less dynamic, focusing primarily on articulating the administration's policies rather than proposing his own.
"He's that guy like rolling this policy in glitter and trying to make it look shiny and credible." ([17:30])
A significant portion of the discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve's dual mandate to manage inflation and support employment. The hosts analyze how slight deteriorations in the labor market and gradual improvements in inflation are influencing the debate on whether to cut interest rates.
"We're stuck between its two mandates. And if you ask any Fed chair which mandate is more important, what are you going to, how are you going to prioritize or how are you going to choose?" ([08:20])
The conversation explores the delayed effects of tariffs imposed in previous administrations, questioning whether the anticipated tariff-induced inflation will materialize or if mitigation strategies will keep it in check.
"Maybe tariff inflation won't be as bad as we thought. That's a possibility that has to be reckoned with." ([10:02])
Armstrong offers an unconventional perspective on President Trump's stance, suggesting that Trump might not be as dovish on interest rates as his rhetoric implies, especially in light of past experiences with the Biden administration.
"Trump is probably not as dovish as he sounds." ([14:11])
He posits that Trump's criticisms of Powell may be more about deflecting blame than signaling genuine policy preferences.
Among the four contenders, Christopher Waller emerges as the frontrunner due to his current role and alignment with the prevailing economic indicators. Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh offers a critical alternative, contrasting with Kevin Hassett and Scott Besant, who are seen as more closely aligned with presidential policies.
"You're not allowed to just say Kevin Waller. You're allowed to say which Kevin you think?" ([19:05])
Armstrong humorously notes potential surprises in the selection process, hinting at Trump's penchant for unexpected appointments.
In a lighter segment, Rob Armstrong shares his investment stance:
The episode concludes with acknowledgments of the production team and a reminder for listeners to engage with future episodes. The discussion encapsulates the complexities of selecting a new Federal Reserve Chair amid economic uncertainties and political pressures, providing listeners with a nuanced understanding of the factors at play.
Notable Quotes:
Timestamp Highlights:
This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the "Who Wants to Be a Fed Chair?" episode of Unhedged, providing insights into the candidates, economic considerations, and the interplay between the Federal Reserve and presidential influence.