UnHerd with Freddie Sayers

Episode Title: Avi Loeb vs. Michael Shermer: The Aliens Debate
Date: February 25, 2026
Participants:

• Host: Freddie Sayers (UnHerd)
• Avi Loeb: Professor of Astronomy at Harvard, leader of the Galileo Project
• Michael Shermer: Historian of science, founder of Skeptic magazine, author of Truth

Overview of the Episode

This episode features a lively and thoughtful debate about the question: “Are we being visited by aliens?” Recent comments from U.S. Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump about the reality of “aliens” and incoming declassified government files on UFOs serve as a springboard for the discussion. Avi Loeb argues in favor of openness and scientific investigation into potential extraterrestrial contact. Michael Shermer brings skepticism, arguing that the weight of evidence for alien visitations is still fundamentally lacking.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Presidential Comments and Public Speculation

• Obama’s “Slip” and Trump’s Comments ([00:36]-[01:47])
  • Audio clips and discussion about both Obama and Trump sparking renewed interest in alien visitations.
  • Host sets up the debate: “Suddenly it seems like we could be closer than ever to knowing: Are we really alone in the universe?” ([01:47])

2. Setting the Stage: Meet the Experts

• Host introduces Avi Loeb (pro-contact, cosmic openness) and Michael Shermer (skeptical, scientific rigor).
• They reveal they have a $1,000 bet on whether proof of contact will materialize by 2030. ([02:48])

3. Avi Loeb: Why We Should Take the Hunt for Alien Evidence Seriously

([03:13]-[09:42])

• Loeb’s Case for Imminent Discovery:
  • “Over the past decade, we started discovering with telescopes objects from outside the solar system near Earth... We haven't really invested in checking whether we have any packages in our mailbox that were produced by alien civilizations.” ([05:03]-[05:26])
  • Science as “a verified method for developing constraints on our imagination.” He likens seeking alien evidence to “a person who goes on a date – you never know whether you will find a partner, but you will remain lonely if you don’t try.” ([06:38])
• Data and Anomalies:
  • Oumuamua (interstellar object) had anomalous properties (e.g., brightness, movement) not explained by known physics, and recent objects like 3I Atlas also show strange properties ([07:23]).
  • Galileo Project is deploying observatories and using AI to search for and analyze strange aerial phenomena.
• Critique of Scientific Reluctance:
  • “Those people who say it's an extraordinary claim but are not willing to allocate the billions of dollars…they're not willing to give their time…they are anti-science.” ([09:31])

4. Michael Shermer: The Skeptic’s Challenge

([09:49]-[13:58])

• Culture in Ufology:
  • “My frustration with the whole UAP community...they all saw something weird in the sky. OK, what was it?...Where is the alien spaceship? It’s in a warehouse. Where’s the warehouse? Can’t tell you. It always goes like that.” ([10:07])
• Scientific Conservatism:
  • Recalls decades of “disclosure is coming” with nothing ever delivered.
  • “I think the odds are pretty low.” ([12:04])
• Technological Leap Skepticism:
  • If aliens exist, “they’re not going to be just five years ahead of us…they’ll be like a million years ahead.” ([12:10])
• Support for Scientific Searches – But with a Hard-Nosed Attitude:
  • “Maybe the way forward is what Avi’s doing...but in general, I think they’re probably out there somewhere” – just not here yet. ([12:21])

5. How Should Scientists Handle Anomalies?

([13:19]-[16:43])

• Shermer: With just a handful of anomalous interstellar objects, “with an N of 3 or 4, it’s hard to know what’s normal, right?” ([13:47])
• Loeb: Large sample sizes needed before any claims; current approaches filter out fast-moving or small objects, possibly missing true anomalies.
• Notable Quote:
  • Loeb: “Several tens of millions of objects the size of a person coming from interstellar space...The fundamental question is, is any of them artificial in origin and artifact and we just don’t have the ability to observe them?” ([15:43])

6. Sorting Signal from Noise amid Misinformation

([16:43]-[19:07])

• Shermer, reading Leslie Kean: 90-95% of UFO sightings have mundane explanations; focus should be on that last 5-10%, but that's not grounds for certainty.
• Loeb: “Any real evidence is diluted by a flood of bullshit and misinformation. So to separate the wheat from the chaff, we must examine carefully what we hold in our hands.” ([18:02])

7. Academic and Cultural Barriers: Fuel for Conspiracy?

([19:07]-[21:38])

• Host: Is the reluctance of the scientific establishment fueling conspiracy thinking?
• Loeb: “Transparency is...shining light, cures all diseases...It will save a lot of time – too many people are wasting their time right now.” ([19:42])
• Critique of mainstream physics for speculative pursuits (like string theory) with no experimental validation.

8. Conspiracies and Psychological Patterns

([21:38]-[24:32])

• Shermer: “These are not Avis and the SETI scientists. These are people that are very conspiratorial minded. Why? Because they don’t have evidence.” ([21:38])
• Cites Carl Sagan’s “dragon in the garage” parable – believing in something invisible and untestable is akin to religious faith ([23:12]).

9. What If Evidence Exists But Can’t Be Shared?

([24:32]-[28:29])

• Loeb: If something is hidden, he’d be glad to analyze it scientifically, but hasn’t seen any evidence yet.
• Elon Musk, like Loeb, has never seen any evidence of aliens despite high-level government access.
• Loeb: "I never signed an NDA." ([27:11])

10. Ancient Civilizations and ‘Space Archaeology’

([30:02]-[30:14])

• Shermer: “What you would find, Avi, with one of these interstellar objects is probably the remnants of some ancient civilization, which would be spectacular to know...it's just like space archeology.”
• Loeb: “It’s archeology.” ([30:14])

11. Science, Fame, and the Research “Marketplace”

([30:45]-[32:34])

• Shermer: Some jealousy exists among scientists regarding Loeb’s media attention.
• Discusses signal detection and the validity of “hits” in data.
• Loeb: “There are lots of people who claim that they are Napoleon and they usually find their place in mental institutions.” ([32:05])

12. AI and Deepfakes: New Challenges for Belief and Evidence

([32:34]-[33:36])

• Loeb: Proliferation of AI deepfakes threatens science and public understanding – personal story about someone duped by fake content in his likeness.
• Shermer: UFO videos themselves may soon be indistinguishable from fakes.

13. Explaining Famous UFO Military Footage

([33:36]-[36:49])

• Shermer: “No.” Military videos are likely misidentifications, camera artifacts, or conventional craft.
  • “The pilot said they saw something. The Tic Tac did this, and it dropped, you know. But is that in fact really what they saw?” ([34:35])
• Triangulation and Instrumentation:
  • Loeb: “...Triangulation. Figuring out the distance of objects by looking at them from different directions. ... We haven't found [anomalous objects] yet, but we have the capability.” ([35:41])

14. Limits of Physics, Heat, and Engineering

([36:49]-[40:07])

• Shermer: No evidence any country can leap centuries ahead in technology, and physical constraints exist on what’s possible (e.g. human pilots wouldn’t survive “impossible” maneuvers).
• Loeb: “Any object moving through air fast enough will release a lot of heat as a result of friction...So just attending to exotic explanations does not remove the existence of a fireball...just find me or imagine any physics that would avoid interaction with air or with water, and then I would like to test it.” ([38:18])

15. Meta-Commentary: Fame, Jealousy, and Motivations

([30:45]-[32:11], revisit)

• Loeb gets far more attention than fellow scientists – some envy but also reflects public fascination.

16. Whistleblowers and Stories of Retrieval

([41:57]-[46:36])

• Host: “Let’s speak about whistleblowers...” mentioning high-profile claims of “non-human biological remains”.
• Loeb: Intelligence agencies may invent alien stories to cover human technology retrieval; the only way to know is independent lab analysis.
• Shermer: Witnesses may have misidentified secret or experimental human craft. If aliens were proven real, institutions like NASA or the Pentagon would have every incentive to make it public and get more funding. “My God is big enough for the entire universe. ... Most people would not be disturbed by this.” ([45:38])

17. The Stakes: What If We DO Find Proof?

([46:36]-[48:40])

• Loeb: “If you find the evidence, will you accept the Nobel Prize? ... No, I will not waste my time...What is the meaning of money in the day after discovering aliens are here? ... It brings us to a completely new reality...far more exciting than the AI revolution, far more exciting than the discovery of Copernicus and Galileo.”
• Shermer: “I hope I pay Avi his bet this week. Maybe this is the week.” ([48:59])

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• Loeb: “Science is a verified method for developing constraints on our imagination.” ([05:18])
• Shermer: “My frustration with the whole UAP community...they saw something weird in the sky. Okay, what was it? ... It’s always, ‘can’t tell you.’” ([10:07])
• Loeb: “Any real evidence is diluted by a flood of bullshit and misinformation.” ([18:02])
• Shermer: “There has to be some way to test for it, or else we’re just talking like it’s a religious faith. And that’s, in my opinion, what the UFO community is.” ([23:12])
• Loeb: “I never signed an NDA.” ([27:11])
• Shermer: “What you would find, Avi, with one of these interstellar objects is probably the remnants of some ancient civilization...space archaeology.” ([30:02])
• Loeb: “What is the meaning of money the day after discovering aliens are here...It will be the biggest revelation ever.” ([46:36])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Presidential Comments & Public Hype: [00:36]–[01:47]
• Loeb’s Pro-Alien Argument: [05:03]–[09:42]
• Shermer’s Skeptical Appraisal: [09:49]–[13:58]
• Debate: Anomalies in Science & Evidence: [13:19]–[16:43]
• Flood of Misinformation: [16:43]–[19:07]
• Conspiracies and Stigma: [21:38]–[24:32]
• Retrieval and Reverse Engineering Programs: [42:37]–[44:33]
• AI & Deepfake Issues: [32:34]–[33:36]
• Military UFO Videos Discussion: [33:36]–[36:49]
• The Stakes: If We Find Proof: [46:36]–[48:40]

Conclusion

The episode ends with both guests holding their ground: Loeb passionately calls for open-minded, well-funded investigation, seeing the alien question as both scientifically urgent and transformative for humanity. Shermer, while supporting scientific inquiry, firmly doubts the likelihood of alien visitation based on the available evidence—urging skepticism over claims that go untested or rely on secrecy. Both emphasize the importance of transparency, scientific method, and the need to separate fact from fiction in an age rife with deepfakes and misinformation.

Final exchange:

• Shermer: “I hope I pay Avi his bet this week. Maybe this is the week.” ([49:00])
• Host: “That was our definitive aliens debate between Harvard University's Avi Loeb and Skeptic magazine's Michael Shermer...” ([49:16])