UnHerd with Freddie Sayers

Episode: Can Reform win in Manchester?
Date: February 5, 2026

Overview

This episode dives into the upcoming by-election in the newly-formed Gorton and Denton constituency, just outside Manchester. Host Freddie Sayers brings on local experts, political scientists, and elected councillors to dissect the critical contest between Labour, Reform UK (with high-profile candidate Matt Goodwin), the surging Greens, and the dynamics within the area’s ethnically and socially diverse communities. The discussion reveals how this local race encapsulates broader trends in British and Western politics: polarization, populism, demographic shifts, and the fracturing of old party allegiances.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Why Gorton and Denton Matters ([01:30]-[04:52])

• Unusually diverse, both demographically and politically; seen as a microcosm of broader trends.
• Election features all major strands: urban/metropolitan young graduates, large Muslim and immigrant population, and white working-class communities.
• Significance transcends the UK, offering clues to political shifts across Europe and North America.

“Whatever happens in three weeks in Gorton and Denton is actually going to tell us quite a lot about how the huge political ripples might play out across Europe and even in North America.”
— UnHerd Host (Freddie) [03:45]

2. Constituency Breakdown with Professor Rob Ford ([04:52]-[28:47])

a. Demographic and Electoral Geography ([05:37]-[10:16])

• The seat has seven wards, split into three rough areas:
  • Denton wards: Very white (82%+), working class, lots of council estates—Reform UK stronghold.
  • Manchester city wards: Younger, diverse (41.9% white, nearly 40% Muslim), gentrified areas—historically Labour, challenged by Greens, Workers Party.
  • Gorton and Abbey Hey: Diverse, with big black and smaller Muslim community, poorest ward.

b. Populist Dynamics and the “Strange Coalition” ([11:03]-[13:40])

• Combination of groups (conservative Muslim communities and liberal young grads) voting left for different reasons, united against a perceived common enemy (populist right).
• Parallels drawn to the Boris Johnson-era “Get Brexit Done” coalition.

“An awful lot of politics these days is about identifying a common enemy as much as having a common cause.”
— Prof. Rob Ford [11:29]

c. Party Competition and Voter Splits ([15:41]-[18:39])

• Left vote fragmentation: Labour’s traditional dominance is challenged by Greens and Workers Party, with potential for vote-splitting that benefits Reform.
• Workers Party (explicitly Muslim and anti-Labour) is not standing, but endorses Greens.

“The risk is they get half of the way there, but not the whole way there. So, you end up with Labour and Greens splitting half the total—should be a winning share—but it’s split evenly, and then if Reform get 30 or high 20s, they win through the middle.”
— Prof. Rob Ford [17:33]

d. Sectarian Politics and Historic Echoes ([18:39]-[21:32])

• The emergence of the “Muslim vote” as an explicit political force—a return to forms of sectarian politics long part of UK history (Irish Catholic, Black, Asian vote blocks).
• New is the focus on candidates running explicitly on Muslim/communal issues, not just broader left-of-centre concerns.

e. Reform’s Prospects and Candidate Strategy ([22:17]-[28:47])

• For Reform to win, must sweep Denton and eat into Manchester wards (despite demographic headwinds).
• Matt Goodwin’s selection is a “one way bet”—if he loses, demographics are an excuse, but any strong result is a breakthrough.
• Voters are not monolithic; some minorities may be open to Reform, mirroring US trends with Trump and ethnic minorities.
• Matt Goodwin’s past comments on national identity may hinder cross-ethnic appeal.

“One strategy would have been to appeal across ethnic groups. I’m not really sure—well, they’ve made that strategy more difficult to pull off.”
— Prof. Rob Ford [26:50]

3. On-the-Ground View: Yoshi Herman, Manchester Mill Editor ([31:49]-[41:07])

• National commentators may oversimplify local complexities; real communities don’t all fit the stereotypes.
• Denton is less reformist than imagined; public sector workers, NHS staff may stick with Labour or be hesitant to swing.
• In Manchester, the “Labour for life” identity is entrenched, but Greens are gaining among gentrifiers and possibly some Muslim families disaffected with Labour.
• Galloway's Workers Party stepping back reshapes the contest in Muslim wards, but Greens’ progressive stance may dissuade some socially conservative voters.
• Labour’s chances are underrated due to loyalty and local organization, even if national sentiment is anti-Labour.

“Everything would tell you that Labour shouldn’t win this by-election… However, there is a kind of loyalty that Labour has in some of these kind of areas.”
— Yoshi Herman [35:07]

“If Reform can win a seat that is two-thirds Manchester, that is a really, really, really big moment of British politics.”
— Yoshi Herman [37:27]

“When Matt Goodwin was announced, my initial instinct…was that that is a mistake, because I thought that looked like picking someone who’s very online… but who would not go down well in a seat like this, which is a working-class seat and very diverse…”
— Yoshi Herman [38:46]

4. Reform “On the Doors”: Alan Hopwood, Reform Councillor ([41:48]-[50:54])

• Sees strong response for Reform and Matt Goodwin on the ground, especially due to disillusionment with long-standing Labour control.
• Argues Reform’s appeal is not solely about immigration, but broader discontent with governance, public services, and economic struggles (pub closures, business rates).
• Voters increasingly willing to break old party habits and are more discerning.
• Notes personal support from immigrant-background voters in his own ward.

“It’s not simply about immigration and I want to stress: immigration isn’t really the cutting edge for us. Illegal immigration is a real problem—it’s not immigration per se.”
— Alan Hopwood [44:21]

“People now are looking more to the future. What can you do for us? …rather than ‘I’m not supposed to vote for you because my friends don’t think I should.’”
— Alan Hopwood [47:10]

5. Workers Party Perspective: Shabazz Sawa, Councillor ([50:57]-[59:53])

• Workers Party stood down to avoid splitting the left vote, fearing it would boost Reform and create community division.
• Advises Muslim voters to look at other options, not just stick with Labour by habit; hints at openness toward Greens but notes social conservatism makes Muslim support conditional (especially over LGBT policies in education).
• Concern over Reform’s message of division versus Manchester’s tradition of unity and gradual integration among British-born Muslims.
• Reform’s rhetoric focused too much on immigration and division, though frustration with the old parties fuels their rise.

“The majority of the vote picked up by Reform…is basically sending a message to their own parties: ‘look, if you don’t get your act right, then we have to look somewhere else.’”
— Shabazz Sawa [58:46]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Prof. Rob Ford [11:29]:
  “An awful lot of politics these days is about identifying a common enemy as much as having a common cause.”

• UnHerd Host (Freddie) [18:39]:
  “It’s quite amazing, isn’t it, really, that we’re seriously talking about the Muslim vote now with capital letters…”

• Yoshi Herman [37:27]:
  "If Reform can win a seat that is 2/3 of the population of which is in Manchester, that is a really, really, really big moment of British politics."

• Alan Hopwood [44:21]:
  “It’s not simply about immigration… Illegal immigration is a real problem, it’s not immigration per se.”

• Shabazz Sawa [54:04]:
  "When you look at the faith groups, not just the Muslim group but the faith groups, they have little hesitation with the Green Party. And this is based on the LGBT aspect of things…"

Key Timestamps

| Segment | Topic | |---------|-------| | 01:30 | Introduction and context of the by-election | | 04:52 | Prof. Rob Ford explains demographic split | | 09:31 | Diversity within Muslim communities explored | | 11:03 | "Strange coalition" of left-leaning voting blocs | | 15:41 | Local ward politics and vote-splitting risks | | 18:39 | Rise of explicitly sectarian “Muslim vote” | | 22:17 | Can Reform’s Matt Goodwin win here? | | 24:54 | Reform’s cross-ethnic prospects; Matt Goodwin’s history | | 31:49 | Yoshi Herman’s local ‘on the ground’ perspective | | 36:06 | Labour’s loyalty advantage in the seat | | 37:27 | Why a Reform victory would be a watershed moment | | 41:48 | Alan Hopwood on Reform’s campaign ground game | | 44:21 | What drives Reform support: not just immigration | | 50:57 | Shabazz Sawa on Workers Party strategy | | 54:04 | Why some Muslims find Green’s social policies hard to support | | 58:33 | If Reform wins: voter anger and desire for change |

Tone and Takeaways

UnHerd's episode is conversational, analytical, and in places candidly speculative, blending data-driven insights with first-person testimony. All the guests acknowledge the by-election’s unpredictability, with shifting alliances, “shy” Reform-curious voters, and Labour’s fading dominance, but deep-rooted local loyalties. The contest ultimately symbolizes Britain’s and the West’s wider political reordering—populism, polarization, demographic transformation, and a crumbling postwar consensus.

Final Message

The Gorton and Denton by-election is not only a battleground for Britain’s parties but a barometer for seismic shifts in Western politics. As Freddie Sayers remarks in closing, “Whatever happens in then will tell us a lot about what is going to happen in the general election here and possibly in elections around the continent.” [59:55]