UnHerd with Freddie Sayers
Episode: Debate: Is there a migrant crimewave?
Date: November 5, 2025
Host: Freddie Sayers
Guest: Fraser Nelson, Times columnist and former Spectator editor
Episode Overview
Freddie Sayers welcomes Fraser Nelson to UnHerd to tackle the fraught and politically loaded question: Is Britain experiencing a migrant-driven crimewave? Prompted by recent violent incidents and viral narratives linking rising crime to immigration, Sayers and Nelson engage in a data-driven, nuanced discussion about the reality of crime trends, the politicization of crime statistics, the challenges of interpreting ethnicity and criminality, and the broader context of integration in Britain and Europe. The conversation is punctuated by frank admissions of the limits of available data, the potential misuses of statistics, and reflections on public perception versus reality.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Context: Crime, Immigration, and Narrative (01:22–03:23)
- Recent viral crimes have heightened fears of violent crime linked to migrants.
- The polarized reactions on social media and the hunt for confirmation of pre-existing narratives.
Quote:
"There's this rather sinister ritual where the social media groups...start hoping or fearing that the identity of the suspect will fit into one of their preconceived narratives."
— Freddie Sayers [01:31]
2. Data Deep-Dive: Is Violent Crime Actually Up? (03:23–07:36)
- NHS Assault Data: Violent crimes treated in hospitals peaked in mid-2000s (45,000/year) and have since halved.
- Crime Survey for England and Wales: Also shows a steady decrease. Survey robust, albeit with acknowledged flaws.
- Immigration vs. Crime: While the immigrant population has tripled since 2000, overall reported crime has fallen—presented as “X-shaped” graph.
Quotes:
"Violent crime is down by roughly a half since its peak in the early 2000s."
— Freddie Sayers [03:29]
"When you look at that graph, it's difficult to say that Britain is in the grip of an immigrant driven crime wave."
— Fraser Nelson [06:34]
3. Public Perception vs. Data (07:36–11:40)
- Why don’t people believe the data? The visible surge in petty crime — shoplifting, phone-snatching, fare evasion—creates a perception of chaos and falling order.
- Policing Issues: Increased enforcement for minor, bureaucratic offenses (e.g. driving slightly over speed limits) vs. lack of effort for more disruptive behaviors like fare evasion and shoplifting.
- Two-tier policing: Law-abiding people are penalized, while "difficult" offenders are ignored.
Quotes:
"You don't see fewer murders...but what you do see absolutely is shoplifting. You do see everyday items being locked up as if they're like watches."
— Fraser Nelson [10:56]
"There's a two tier system—legally responsive vs. those who aren't legally responsive."
— Fraser Nelson [14:06]
4. The Contentious Link: Crime, Ethnicity, and Immigration (14:51–21:58)
- Spike in studies/FOIs and media claims: Recent data sets suggest certain foreign-born populations are overrepresented in certain crime statistics—particularly serious crimes like sexual assault.
- Caution with methodology. Many of these reports are produced by lone campaigners or politically motivated "think tanks," raising questions about validity and adjustment (e.g., for age, gender).
- Government’s reluctance to publish ethnicity/crime data has fueled speculation and mistrust.
Quotes:
"The real problem is the Home Office hasn't produced such figures, and it probably should now."
— Fraser Nelson [20:08]
"It's not possible now for the government to say that's an illegitimate debate. Your figures are wrong, but we're not going to tell you what the right ones are."
— Fraser Nelson [22:15]
5. The Implications and Policy Responses (21:58–28:38)
- Nelson’s personal policy view: Supports immediate deportation of illegal arrivals (e.g., small boats) and more selective, vetted intake from refugee camps—framed as a moral duty for wealthy nations.
- Moral duty vs. national priorities: Affirms primary duty to citizens, but supports balanced foreign aid and refugee intake.
- Public patience and perception: Recognizes explosive public anger at perceived lawlessness and border failure.
Quotes:
"I believe that we have a moral duty as a rich country to the rest of the world. Now, just how we discharge that is up for debate."
— Fraser Nelson [24:47]
6. Hardening Attitudes and Cultural Tensions (28:38–37:39)
- Shift in public debate: Social media driving open discussion of “re-migration,” restricting not just new arrivals but even descendants of immigrants.
- Sweden as a cautionary tale: Hosts discuss how mass immigration there correlated with higher violence, but Nelson argues the issue is less about immigration per se than integration and segregation in Swedish society.
- “Foreign background” concept: Cultural labeling is less controversial in Sweden, highly so in UK.
Quotes:
"Britain has got quite a lot to boast about when it comes to integration... Even foreigners are amazed at how uncontroversial our diversity is."
— Fraser Nelson [41:28]
7. Integration: Failures, Successes, and Perspective (41:28–47:38)
- Honest assessment: Britain has both integration “failures”—such as grooming gangs—and genuine multi-ethnic/faithed public success stories (e.g., the King’s coronation).
- Nelson’s argument: Don’t let the failures define the whole story; Britain is still a relative success within Europe.
Quotes:
"There are also successes which it seems dare not mention their name now because it interferes with the mono narrative of Britain being a country ruined by mass immigration..."
— Fraser Nelson [44:00]
8. What Should Politicians Do? (45:19–48:56)
- Not advisable for politicians to “Pollyanna” the electorate—public disbelieves positive data, wants to see visible action on (especially border) control.
- Nelson’s stance: Supports net-zero and even net-negative immigration to restore confidence, citing Sweden as a precedent.
Quotes:
"It's not politicians' job to say how wonderful everything is. They're not commentators. They are put in power to solve problems."
— Fraser Nelson [45:59]
9. The Rise of Ethno-Nationalism and Racial Politics (49:15–52:28)
- Racial politics resurging from left and right. Nelson blames both sides: critical race theory's focus on group identity and the online right's exclusionary discourse.
- Cultural vs. racial concerns: Argues for a single "British" civic culture, open to all, and rejects the idea of cultural compatibility tests for immigrants.
Quotes:
"You couldn’t get more English than Rishi Sunak in my view. But nonetheless you do see this as an argument... I am opposed to racial politics."
— Fraser Nelson [50:14]
10. Demographics & the Long View (52:28–55:42)
- Highlights Britain and Sweden as the only major European countries projected to increase working-age population (due to immigration)—critical as other countries face demographic decline.
- Argues Britain’s “rational optimism” is justified given both past and current ability to adapt to change and maintain relatively safe streets.
Quotes:
"If you want to bet on a country's success, I think you would see in Britain...a country which is, as we started off a discussion saying, has got streets that have been safer than any time in my lifetime..."
— Fraser Nelson [54:32]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Data vs. Perception:
"If you post down social media...people will think it's almost insulting, because there is such a mood that order has just degenerated, that crime is everywhere."
— Freddie Sayers [09:13] -
On Ethnicity and Crime Figures:
"If the government won't produce figures, I think it is almost a moral duty for other people to have a best stab at this as best the data available shows."
— Fraser Nelson [21:58] -
On British Integration:
"Britain is perhaps the most successful multi faith democracy in the world precisely because it isn't controversial."
— Fraser Nelson [41:37]
Key Timestamps
- 01:22–03:23: Setting the stakes & introducing Fraser Nelson
- 03:23–07:36: Violent crime trends – what the data really shows
- 07:36–14:51: Public perception, shoplifting, and "two-tier" policing
- 14:51–21:58: Breaking down claims about migrants, ethnicity, and crime
- 21:58–28:38: Policy proposals, government responsibility, and moral duties
- 28:38–37:39: Cultural tension and the Swedish case study
- 41:28–47:38: Successes in British integration, alongside failures
- 45:19–48:56: Political strategy and net-zero immigration prospects
- 49:15–52:28: Ethno-nationalism, racial politics, and British civic identity
- 52:28–55:42: Demographic trends and Britain's prospects
Tone and Takeaways
The conversation is robust and honest, with both Sayers and Nelson refusing easy answers. Nelson is consistently nuanced—insisting on not minimizing failures, but imploring a broader view that acknowledges Britain's relative success in a European context grappling with more acute integration and demographic crises. He urges open data, reasoned debate, and policies that restore public confidence without descending into simplistic or racially charged narratives.
Main Takeaway:
Despite highly publicized incidents, the narrative of an out-of-control "migrant crimewave" in Britain is not supported by the long-term data. However, the challenge of visible disorder, integration problems, and the wider societal unease about rapid demographic change persists. The solution, Nelson argues, is more honesty, better data, and policy agility—neither denial nor demagoguery.