Podcast Summary: UnHerd with Freddie Sayers

Episode: John Bew: The Davos world is over
Air date: January 22, 2026
Host: Freddie Sayers
Guest: Professor John Bew, historian and chief foreign policy advisor to the last four UK Prime Ministers

Episode Overview

This episode features an in-depth discussion between host Freddie Sayers and Professor John Bew, focusing on the seismic shifts in global power and the unraveling of the so-called "Davos world"—the liberal, rules-based international order that has dominated Western thought since 1945. Against the backdrop of a turbulent Davos meeting and rising global instability (particularly with the US under President Trump, tensions over Greenland, and a fracturing Western alliance), the conversation interrogates the durability and legitimacy of the Western alliance, the myth versus reality of the global order, and explores the UK’s options in a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The End of the Rules-Based International Order

[03:32–08:45]

• Current Crisis of Confidence:

  • Davos 2026 is marked by anxiety; major figures like Mark Carney and the head of Chatham House declare the Western alliance and rules-based order as "over."
  • Professor Bew cautions against hyperbole and presentism but agrees that the current uncertainty is "pretty radical."

• The Myth and Utility of the Order:

  • The "rules-based international order" is both real and a myth; its ideals provided stability and legitimacy, though hypocrisy and power politics always underpinned it.
  • "If it's a myth, it's been a useful myth over this period of time." (Bew, 07:11)

• Why the ‘Order’ Is Being Rejected Now:

  • Growing national and popular skepticism, especially as benefits of globalization and free trade seem less tangible.
  • The legitimacy of the post-1945 system is being challenged both at the level of states and citizens.

2. Shifts Inside the Western Bloc

[11:41–15:58]

• New Fractures:

  • Previous naivety about global convergence is gone; now, even within the West, trust and unity are in question, particularly with Trump taking an adversarial stance toward Europe.

• Historical Perspective:

  • Past fractures (1945–47, Suez) show the alliance has weathered crises before but notes current tensions may be the most severe since 1945.

• US–UK Relationship:

  • Starmer’s approach to Trump (described as "sucking up") is defended by Bew as pragmatically correct.
  • "Foreign policy is hard. Sometimes it involves not doing the popular thing. Sometimes foreign policy involves putting on your continence pants." (Bew, 18:36)

3. Greenland Crisis and Realpolitik

[19:14–27:16]

• Dilemma Over Greenland:

  • Trump’s threats regarding Greenland—formally Danish, a NATO ally—are a flashpoint.
  • Realistically, direct military confrontation with the US is impossible for the UK/Europe, but standing silent is also not an option.

• Possibilities and Limitations:

  • Communication and explanatory diplomacy are essential, but hard constraints remain.
  • "It is not without effect to say, look, this risks a major rupture rather than throwing down the gauntlet saying we're going to fight the United States." (Bew, 19:56)

• Pre-1945 US Mentality:

  • Trump presidency’s "return" to US territorial assertiveness, bypassing the post-1945 language and assumptions, leaves allies disoriented.

4. Limits of European Leverage and Hypothetical Responses

[28:47–44:05]

• Infantilization of Allies:

  • Western Europe's reliance on US leadership and protection has left it unnervingly weak and reactive.
  • "The Western Alliance's dependence on the United States has been infantilizing." (Bew quoting Alex Younger, 28:47)

• On Retaliatory Tools:

  • The EU’s “trade bazooka” is available but hard to deploy due to internal divisions.
  • Targeted economic measures (e.g., tech squeeze, tariffs) are discussed as leverage but come with political and economic risks.

• No Easy Answers for New Alliances:

  • Multi-national responses—whether through the EU, ad hoc coalitions, or Northern European alliances—are constrained by divergent interests and slow consensus-building.
  • "There's no easy answer as... there's no sort of obvious Europe world that answers these problems now." (Bew, 39:51)

5. The Future of Europe and UK's Position

[35:30–45:38]

• Changing European Political Landscape:

  • A potential future where Europe’s center shifts rightward, raising questions about the UK’s stance.
  • Current attempts at UK-EU defense cooperation remain hard owing to recent Brexit wounds and diverging continental strategies.

• Patchwork Alliances:

  • Focus for now should be on pragmatic, overlapping alliances (e.g., Joint Expeditionary Force, Northern European pacts).
  • The “old Hanseatic League coming back” as new alignments form among dynamic northern economies.

• Europe’s Chronic Problem:

  • Europe, by design, lacks the single-policy decisiveness of the US or China, resulting in cumbersome policymaking.

6. Restoring National Power and Final Reflections

[46:21–54:24]

• Hard Choices at Home:

  • The UK, post-Davos, must focus on restoring its own national power: "input/output from welfare to energy to defense investment."
  • Decades of deindustrialization and underinvestment in key sectors have left the UK exposed.

• No Despair, No Simple Lines in the Sand:

  • Bew rejects both performative resistance and passivity; advocates realism, pragmatism, and a multifaceted strategy.
  • "I'm not arguing for a milquetoast approach to this current moment... I think we are close to break glass on a range of domestic and international issues." (Bew, 46:37)

• On the Risk of Major War:

  • While there is abundant “dry tinder” geopolitically, Bew avoids predicting an inevitable major conflict.
  • "Do I think a major war is coming? I think the likelihood of confrontation conflict is definitely increased...[but] I'm not going to go so far to say, as you know, war is coming." (Bew, 53:13)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the myth of the rules-based order:

  • "If it's a myth, it's been a useful myth over this period of time."
    —John Bew, [07:11]

• On the importance and fragility of shared frameworks:

  • "Those myths are important. Those stories are important. Sort of normative frameworks are important."
    —John Bew, [08:21]

• On the new American approach:

  • "The US with no apparent desire to use any of the language, sensibility, norms of that post-45 thing… It's a very pre-1945 story."
    —John Bew, [25:05]

• On European weakness:

  • "The extent of the Western Alliance's dependence on the United States has been infantilizing to a certain extent." (quoting Alex Younger)
    —John Bew, [28:47]

• On policy complexity:

  • "What I don't think that Britain can ever get away with certainly post Brexit saying, here is how the future of Europe needs to look…that conversation has to be more organic. The problem with it being more organic is therefore it's slow, it's cumbersome, there's a million stakeholders…"
    —John Bew, [45:06]

• On the UK position:

  • "Do what you can in the context of what you can control, then beyond that, be present, ready for the risk, the need to deter the action."
    —John Bew, [50:11]

• On not succumbing to despair:

  • "I constantly want to avoid a council of despair…Do I think a major war is coming? I think…confrontation is definitely increased…I'm not going to go so far to say, as you know, war is coming."
    —John Bew, [53:13]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 03:32 – 08:45: The value and myth of the rules-based order
• 11:41 – 15:58: Ruptures inside the Western alliance & comparison to past crises
• 19:14 – 27:16: Realpolitik over Greenland and limits of European action
• 28:47 – 34:32: Europe's leverage, retaliatory tools, and alliance dependence
• 35:30 – 45:38: Emerging blocs, Europe’s complexity, and UK strategic dilemmas
• 46:21 – 54:24: National power, hard choices at home, war risks, and summing up

Conclusion

Freddie Sayers’ interview with Professor John Bew delivers a sobering, nuanced take on global order in 2026. The "Davos world"—that optimistic belief in a harmonious, rules-based international system—is ending. Bew’s realism is clear: the UK and Europe must adapt to a world of volatility, power politics, and competing myths. Simple answers or grand gestures are mistaken; instead, what’s needed is a pragmatic, layered approach to foreign policy, serious rebuilding of national power, and readiness for radical uncertainty.

"We're kind of last Davos man at the bar. Right. And then we look out, the lights are off, the roads back to the hotel room or icy...our unhooking from Davos is actually uniquely, uniquely powerful."
—John Bew, [50:11]