UnHerd with Freddie Sayers

Episode: The Age of Drone Warfare Has Begun

Date: March 20, 2026
Guest: Shashank Joshi (Defence Editor, The Economist)
Summary by: [Your Name]

Overview

In this episode, Freddie Sayers explores the profound transformation in modern warfare brought about by the rise of cheap, effective drones—focusing on the current tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Defense expert Shashank Joshi joins to explain the mechanics of drone-powered military disruption, the implications for the world’s critical shipping routes, and the challenge posed to even powerful militaries by inexpensive, widely accessible technologies. The discussion delves into whether established powers can "defeat" such asymmetric threats, the limits of drone technology, and what the new age of drone warfare means for global security.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz

(01:10-02:14)

• Sayers frames the issue: Can military force really secure this bottleneck through which 20% of the world's oil travels?
• Reference is made to Professor Robert Pape, who suggested that Iran could continue to disrupt shipping with very limited forces—mainly drones.

Quote:

• “Even with a tiny amount of military capacity, Iran has the ability to throttle 20% of the world's oil supply and cause chaos.”—Freddie Sayers (01:17)

2. What Does it Mean to ‘Control’ a Chokepoint with Drones?

(02:14-04:27)

• Joshi differentiates between total control versus imposing a significant risk premium that deters civilian shipping.
• Even a small chance of attack can cut shipping dramatically, as seen recently in the Red Sea.
• America’s past efforts to clear such choke points have had limited effect.

Quote:

• “You only need a very small level of a risk premium above the pre-war level to dissuade civilian tankers... [that] carries a small but nontrivial chance of having their cargo and their sailors blown up.”—Shashank Joshi (02:49)

3. Mechanics of the Threat: Weapons and Launch Strategies

(04:27-09:29)

• Mines: Iran may or may not have mined the Strait. Modern mines can be sophisticated, hiding from detection, but even the smartest remain largely indiscriminate, risking friendly ships.
• Missiles: Iran possesses anti-ship cruise missiles (shorter range, often deployed near the coast).
• Drones: Especially the Shaheed-class—low-cost, long-range, launched from deep inland, and hard to trace or preempt.

Quotes:

• “They're effectively small drones... not really the cartoon mine with a big ball and spikes.”—Shashank Joshi (05:25)

• “These can be fired from over a thousand kilometers away, and that is of course the really difficult bit...”—Shashank Joshi (08:10)

• Naval Drones: Remote-controlled “suicide boats” laden with explosives, reminiscent of WW2 fire ships, and used in recent conflicts (e.g., Ukraine vs. Russia in the Black Sea).

4. Uncertainty in Attribution

(08:53-09:32)

• Difficult to confirm which type of weapon hit recent ships—naval or airborne drones are suspected, but without physical evidence, attribution remains ambiguous.

Quote:

• “We haven't had great sight of... the damage that's been done. We haven't had sight of the precise images of... the holes in the ships to see where they've occurred. So I don't know.”—Shashank Joshi (09:04)

5. The Asymmetric Revolution: Cheap Drones Change Everything

(12:16-13:20)

• Sayers muses on how the low cost and broad accessibility of drones could let any actor, powerful or weak, threaten key routes or infrastructure.
• Wonders if drone swarms, like those in choreographed displays, could be weaponized.

Quote:

• “If even a country... like Iran, has the capability to completely control something like the Strait of Hormuz using these very inexpensive drones... it sort of changes the symmetry of all future war in some way, doesn't it?”—Freddie Sayers (12:18)

6. Limits and Vulnerabilities of Drone Warfare

(13:20-16:00)

• Joshi stresses that successful ‘sea denial’ is highly dependent on geography—narrow straits are vulnerable, but open waters are much harder to control this way.
• Large drone swarms (like in Chinese displays) are tightly choreographed; in warfare, they’d be susceptible to jamming and disruption.

Quotes:

• “These are drones, very rigidly choreographed... if you send jamming signals, you could cause a cascading effect that would mean this beautiful display would fall to the ground.”—Shashank Joshi (15:20)
• “The geography matters here... The Taiwan Straits... is 120km wide, rather than the Strait of Hormuz, which is... 21 nautical kilometers at the narrowest.” —Shashank Joshi (14:22)

7. Electronic Warfare: Jamming as a Countermeasure

(16:48-18:22)

• GPS and radio jamming offer some hope for countering drones, but are not foolproof.
• Drones can piggyback on civilian networks, and persistent jamming disrupts civilian life and aviation, bringing risk.

Quote:

• “Jamming isn't a panacea. It doesn't always work 100%, which is why Russian drones... still get through to Ukraine.”—Shashank Joshi (17:57)

8. Is Military ‘Victory’ Possible in This Environment?

(18:24-19:49)

• America can reduce risks through bombing and escort operations, but cannot eliminate risk entirely or restore shipping to pre-war levels.
• Even with overwhelming military response, a 'normal' level of trade is likely unattainable.

Quote:

• “Do I think America can restore the pre-war level of shipping flows for oil, for gas... No, I think that's just not possible. The level of risk isn't going to come down.”—Shashank Joshi (18:55)

9. Lessons from Recent Conflicts: The Houthi Example

(19:30-21:07)

• References the Houthi campaign in the Bab al-Mandab, which ended partly for political reasons but also due to a costly military stalemate.
• The US and Israel expended high-tech interceptors, depleting their own strategic stores and still did not achieve full security.

Quote:

• “America realized it just could not keep doing this... burning through munitions fundamentally needed for any conflict involving China.”—Shashank Joshi (20:27)

Notable Quotes & Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote / Moment | |-----------|----------------|----------------| | 02:49 | Joshi | “You only need a very small level of a risk premium above the pre-war level to dissuade civilian tankers...” | | 05:25 | Joshi | “They're effectively small drones... not really the cartoon mine with a big ball and spikes.”| | 08:10 | Joshi | “These [long-range drones] can be fired from over a thousand kilometers away...” | | 12:18 | Sayers | “It sort of changes the symmetry of all future war in some way, doesn't it?”| | 15:20 | Joshi | “If you send jamming signals, you could cause a cascading effect that would mean this beautiful display would fall to the ground.”| | 17:57 | Joshi | “Jamming isn't a panacea. It doesn't always work 100%, which is why Russian drones... still get through to Ukraine.”| | 18:55 | Joshi | “The level of risk isn't going to come down. Even with all the military power in the world...”| | 20:27 | Joshi | “America realized it just could not keep doing this... burning through munitions fundamentally needed for any conflict involving China.”|

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Strait of Hormuz and the meaning of ‘control’: 01:10–04:27
• Types of weapons and methods of attack: 04:27–09:29
• The democratization of military power by cheap drones: 12:16–13:20
• Technical limits, jamming, and the brittleness of drone swarms: 13:20–16:00
• Effectiveness and limitations of jamming/countermeasures: 16:48–18:22
• Can military force restore normality?: 18:24–19:49
• Lessons from the Houthi campaign: 19:30–21:07

Tone and Language

Both Sayers and Joshi retain an accessible, inquisitive, and occasionally urgent tone, but the conversation remains focused and analytical. Joshi consistently brings nuance—resisting oversimplifications—and anchors speculation with concrete examples and recent history.

Conclusion

This episode paints a sobering picture of the evolving landscape of warfare. Cheap drones and asymmetric tactics enable even weakened actors to have outsized strategic impact—particularly when geography favors them. While countermeasures like jamming and intensive military operations can reduce risk, perfect security is elusive, and the cost—for both military and commerce—will be persistent and significant. The underlying message: we are in a new era where the democratization of warfighting technology will challenge old assumptions of power, control, and victory.