UnHerd with Freddie Sayers – "The truth about net immigration"

Date: December 2, 2025
Guest: Dr. Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory, University of Oxford

Episode Overview

Freddie Sayers of UnHerd examines the UK's latest net immigration figures, challenging misleading political narratives about a supposed “exodus” of Britons and digging into what is actually happening with immigration and emigration. Dr. Madeleine Sumption, a leading authority from the Oxford Migration Observatory, joins to clarify the statistics, assess policy impacts, and explain the real shifts since Brexit and recent government interventions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Main Trends in Net Migration

• Net immigration has fallen steeply:

  • From close to 1 million pre-2024, falling to 649,000 (2024), and now down to 204,000 (year ending June 2025).
  • "Immigration is coming down and fast." — Freddie Sayers [06:00]

• Policy changes drive the numbers:

  • Liberalisation (the “Boris wave”) post-Brexit led to a migration boom.
  • Crackdowns—including restrictions on care worker recruitment, family members for students, and increased income thresholds—are responsible for the sharp recent drop.
  • "The data that we're seeing ... is like the first full year after all of those restrictions were bedded in." — Dr. Madeleine Sumption [09:49]

2. Breakdown of Immigration

• Numbers come down, but composition changes:
  • Earlier, most migrants were EU citizens, mainly for work.
  • Now, the majority are non-EU citizens, many from India, China, Bangladesh, various African countries, typically for work or study.
  • "[N]umbers have come down and returned to ... pre-Brexit ... the composition is very different." — Dr. Madeleine Sumption [09:59]

3. Emigration: Who Is Leaving?

• Majority of leavers are previous immigrants:

  • Most current emigration involves non-EU and EU migrants returning home.
  • An expected phenomenon due to the earlier spike in arrivals—many leave after 2 to 4 years, especially students.
  • "Partly because the majority of the people emigrating... are previous immigrants." — Dr. Madeleine Sumption [11:19]

• British nationals leaving—misleading narrative:

  • While there is notable emigration by British citizens, many “leavers” are naturalised migrants or children of migrants.
  • "[It] may be just completely untrue if ... earlier migrant waves, some of whom have got passports, [are] going home." — Freddie Sayers [32:52]
  • "We don't know... But that's one of the big data gaps actually." — Dr. Madeleine Sumption [30:15]

• Statistical and methodological uncertainties:

  • Changes in how emigration is measured (using government data vs. surveys) cause apparent jumps in the “British exodus” but are mainly artifacts.
  • "[The] new methodology ... looks like suddenly, overnight, the numbers of British people leaving the country doubled. ... It's being measured differently." — Freddie Sayers [13:07]

4. Policy & Political Implications

• Future trends uncertain, no evidence for imminent net-zero migration:

  • Labour government is introducing moderate further restrictions but a net-negative regime is unlikely.
  • "I would be very surprised to see [net zero]. ... I wouldn't confidently tell you there's going to be a reduction in the number of asylum seekers to come into the country based on the proposed policy regime." — Dr. Madeleine Sumption [21:42]
  • Any return to recent high numbers would require major policy liberalization.
  • "I would be very surprised if we went back to anything like those previous levels of migration..." — Dr. Madeleine Sumption [34:52]

• Brain drain/young professionals leaving

  • It is true some professionals and entrepreneurs seek better opportunities abroad (e.g., doctors to Australia), but mass flight of native Britons is not evidenced in the data.
  • "It's not the story of the vast majority of people appearing in these statistics." — Freddie Sayers [35:19]

• Remigration is happening—but naturally, not by coercion:

  • Many from earlier migration waves are “remigrating”, returning to countries of origin, without government intervention.
  • "[T]he controversial concept of remigration... is happening anyway, without the coercion." — Freddie Sayers [36:50]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the meaning of net migration’s fall:

  • “Immigration is coming down and fast. Is that what you would lead with?" — Freddie Sayers [06:00]
  • "That's right. So we've been on a bit of a roller coaster ride over the last few years." — Dr. Madeleine Sumption [06:21]

• On the policy impact:

  • "... expecting a few thousand people to come in as care workers. It turned out that the take up... was much higher than expected. They had over 100,000 care workers in a single year..." — Dr. Madeleine Sumption [08:04]

• On measuring British emigration:

  • "I'm not actually confident that we can even say that net emigration of British citizens is higher now than it was in the 2010s." — Dr. Madeleine Sumption [11:19]

• On the composition of British emigrants:

  • "We don't know... It would be nice to understand that in the breakdowns. We don't have that currently." — Dr. Madeleine Sumption [30:15]
  • "Some of the top destinations recently for British migrants have been Bangladesh, Romania, Poland—...not top destinations for British born British people." — Dr. Madeleine Sumption [31:53]

• On interpreting the new data methods:

  • "[T]here is certainly a risk that people will look like they're migrating ... whereas actually they're just coming in and out of the tax and benefits system itself." — Dr. Madeleine Sumption [24:01]

• On age demographics:

  • "People go abroad for gap years... they get a job looking for interesting new experiences ... So it wasn't surprising to me that ... young people ... are the ones who migrate." — Dr. Madeleine Sumption [26:13]

Important Timestamps

• Headline immigration fall & intro: [01:27]–[06:21]
• Policy changes driving shifts: [08:04]–[09:49]
• Change in migrant composition: [09:59]–[10:37]
• Emigration patterns and caveats: [11:19]–[14:53]
• Explaining the new methodology for tracking emigration: [23:15]–[25:03]
• Discussion of young leavers/age profile: [25:03]–[27:32]
• Distinguishing native and naturalized British emigration: [28:32]–[31:53]
• Remigration and political framing: [35:19]–[36:50]

Final Takeaways

• The narrative of a mass “British exodus” is overblown—the data mostly reflect return migration by previous immigrants, not mass departures of British-born citizens.
• Sharp falls in net migration are real and policy-driven but with crucial shifts in migrant origin and visa type.
• Statistical uncertainty remains highest for British emigration due to methodological changes and limited detail on who constitutes a “British” leaver.
• Future net migration is likely to settle lower than recent highs, but is highly sensitive to government policy and international circumstances.
• Political conversation must move beyond alarmist narratives and understand the true, nuanced story present in the migration data.

For Further Reference

• Dr. Madeleine Sumption: Director, Migration Observatory, University of Oxford
• ONS Net Migration Data: Most recently for year ending June 2025
• Key political context: Labour’s recent, moderate migration restrictions; earlier post-Brexit liberalization; public debate dominated by perceptions rather than data realities

This summary captures all substantive content and reflects the informative, detailed, and clarifying tone of both Freddie Sayers and Dr. Madeleine Sumption.