← UnHerd with Freddie Sayers
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- [00:01]
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- [00:33]
Augusta Precious Metals Advertiser
let me ask a simple question. What happens if the market drops sharply just a few years before retirement? For many people, that would mean 30 years of work and saving suddenly exposed to a single market cycle. Yet most retirement portfolios remain almost entirely tied to paper assets, stocks, bonds and funds. What many investors don't realize is that physical gold can actually be held inside certain retirement accounts. That's something I recently learned more about through Augusta Precious Metals. Their educators explain how gold IRAs work, funds can move from an existing IRA or 401k and how physical gold is stored and regulated within the system. If you'd like to understand how that works, Augusta has created a free guide explaining the structure of gold IRAs. You can visit learngoldira.com to download the guide or text unherd to 35052 and they'll send it to you.
- [01:27]
Host (UnHerd Podcast)
Hello and welcome back to UnHerd. If you've been paying attention to the news in the past couple of weeks, you would have heard talk about Kharg Island. No, this is not a favourite party spot of American spring breakers outside Cancun. It is an oil depot, an island in the north of the Persian Gulf which is and has been responsible for upwards of 90% of Iran's oil exports. And it's a place that the President of the United States, Donald Trump, is talking about conquering or attacking. He says maybe we take Carg island, maybe we don't. We have a lot of options. So it feels responsible to actually understand what kind of place it is, what the American options would be, and what the wisdom or not of undertaking such a military adventure might be. We found the perfect person to discuss this with us. His name is Major General Randy Manor. He is a highly decorated military leader. He has over 5030 years of service in the US army and National Guard. Before retiring he was Deputy Commanding General of the US 3rd army in Kuwait, which is very relevant experience given what happened in Kuwait, an oil rich war zone in the Gulf, as well as being Vice Chief of the National Guard Bureau, Acting Director of the Defence Threat Reduction Agency and more, he's been really paying attention to the president's plans and has some quite interesting views on it. Welcome to Unherd.
- [02:57]
Major General Randy Manor
Thank you for having me.
- [03:00]
Host (UnHerd Podcast)
So let me ask, first of all, what, in your opinion, would a military operation look like? We'll come on to whether it's a wise idea afterwards. If the US Decided they wanted to take Carg island, this oil depot in the Persian Gulf, I actually need to
- [03:17]
Major General Randy Manor
answer that question by also talking about oil. What are the objectives? What are the tactical and strategic objectives of seizing that location that is only nine miles off the coast of Iran, that can be reached by artillery. It could be reached by drones or by missiles from anywhere in Iran? I almost have to ask answer your question in reverse. I think it would be a extremely high risk operation that could result in dozens, if not hundreds of US Military casualties. Because once you put boots on the ground, those individuals cannot move very quickly. And even in the situation like Israel, where you have their Iron Dome, I don't know the exact percentages, but 1 out of 10 missiles absolutely get through. You can imagine that the Iranians would swarm the island, perhaps to be able to destroy American forces that are there. Getting airborne troops to drop onto the island would be very problematic because that means the C17s that would be bringing them there, they would be extremely targeted as well. If it was airborne, if it was Marines, you have to think about, would they bring them in by aircraft, which would be, again, dangerous or even more difficult. A higher risk area would be to bring them in by sea, because that ship would be absolutely targeted because it has almost 3,000 Marines on it with all their equipment. Sinking that one ship would be something that the Iranians would absolutely try to do before they ever got there on land.
- [05:04]
Host (UnHerd Podcast)
The military strategists who have been kind of opining on this have suggested a sort of joint force operation where maybe paratroopers would conduct some kind of airborne nighttime assault. And then the numbers I'm Looking at, around 4,500 marines could conduct amphibious landings using LCACs, which are hovercraft and tilt rotor aircraft. I don't know if that sounds plausible to you, but it's the sort of thing that I think President Trump gets quite excited about, which is a showy, cool, multitask force military operation that showcases the competence of the U.S. forces. I mean, do you think it would play out like that?
- [05:47]
Major General Randy Manor
There's two ways to look at this. Number one, destroying that facility would be in no one's interests. And I say again, not only is it extremely bad for Iranian interests. It's extremely bad for US interests because the that would absolutely drive up the cost of oil worldwide. Even though the United States is not the primary consumer of Iranian oil, it's China and other nations. So the dilemma is if you destroy it in any way, either by US means or Iranian means, to attack US military on the ground, it would absolutely be a catastrophe relative to the world economy. It's also something where do the Iranians not know we're coming? The President and the administration have been telegraphing it non stop that American military are on the way. It could be that the Iranians would let them just occupy it for the point of them occupying it without destroying the facility. Notice the way that I'm saying it and the idea then that the Americans would declare victory and say we told you so and then withdraw and, and then go from there. I do not know what the objectives are because quite bluntly the administration is not clear on what the objectives are.
- [07:05]
Host (UnHerd Podcast)
I've been looking at some shipping information as well. We can actually put a chart on the screen if you're watching on YouTube. This is a chart from the Economist. The Iranian tankers are still passing through the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. It's just everyone else's that aren't. I wonder what you say to that. That at the moment the current situation is actually is very favorable to Iran in that they're able to carry on selling their product and in fact they're just getting a much higher price for it than they were a month ago because the price has nearly doubled. That's I suppose the thinking behind trying to change this status quo by making an attack, for example on Cog island, that it's sort of intolerable for the US to stand buy and watch Iran doubling its profits by shutting the strait to everybody else.
- [07:55]
Major General Randy Manor
If the United States wanted to shut down the straits, we have the capability to do so. The Iranians have the capability to shut it down. Neither side on their own have the ability to open it up. Meaning it takes both the Iranians and the US collaborating to be able to open up the strait. Because of the geography, neither the United States or Iran have the ability to open the strait unilaterally. It's interesting. The United States has not shut down the strait, which is again, I don't know what the objectives are and they're not clear. So therefore that's the uncertainty in the oil market and the uncertainty of course in the US stock market as well.
- [08:37]
Host (UnHerd Podcast)
So your view, if I can sum it up is that to engage in any kind of operation to take Kharg island or any of those other islands in the Persian Gulf would be a fool's errand because you'd end up bogged down and a very sitting duck target which could cause huge escalations and further casualties. Is that roughly where you stand?
- [08:58]
Major General Randy Manor
Well, that's not roughly. That's exactly where I am. It is extremely high risk operation for tactical and strategic objectives which are not clear. I need to say that again, if indeed that these military ground forces are being moved forward as a bargaining chip or to, after hostilities end, to reinforce US bases in the region, which quite frankly do need it, as well as of course, the US Marines to be able to re establish the consulates, the security around the consulates and the US Embassies, then that makes sense. Instead, the idea of them occupying any Iranian soil anywhere will be met with stiff resistance and, or with significantly increased oil prices.
- [09:48]
Host (UnHerd Podcast)
There's another military operation that has been talked about, including by the White House, which is some kind of seizure of Iran's nuclear material. This will be within mainland Iran and somehow there will be a military operation to go in and find and seize their nuclear material. Do you have any idea what the feasibility of that operation would be from a military logistical point of view?
- [10:14]
Major General Randy Manor
Because we're talking about enriched uranium, which according to the international monitors is less than 3% refined. It would be huge amounts of this material and the question would of course be how would you possibly get it out? You would have to have large amounts of transports, you would have to secure the area in and out, you'd have to secure the ground. I think this is something where it sounds good on paper and it sounds good for the, for the press and maybe for people who are uninformed. Again, it is an absolute asinine idea to be able to suggest this because the logistics are, are immense. Also, there is no element of surprise. Israel and Trump have been attacking Iran non stop. And so many of those facilities that are not destroyed are going to be heavily protected, whether it's directly or indirectly by missiles and by drones. So no matter what, it would be an extremely high risk operation for what low return. I think this is something where it should be an item of negotiation. It's interesting that many of the elements of the negotiation that were proposed over the past few months were identical to the one that existed under the first administration of Trump, which he threw out as saying it wasn't good translation, his name wasn't on it and he did not want any Democrats taking credit for anything that was good. So this is one of those things where we have to be practical, realistic. What are the objectives and what are the risks that are associated with it? Doing any kind of a ground special ops operation in this way or to occupy any Iranian territory would only be for the press or for his MAGA base.
- [12:06]
Host (UnHerd Podcast)
Well, there's another potential audience, which is the Iranians, and I wonder whether General, you and I are maybe being kind of playing his game in a way by getting all outraged about these suggestions that are kind of fired off from the White House podium or in casual conversations with reporters. It's very typical of Trump's style. You can read about it in his book the Art of the Deal, which is appear strong, wield massive amounts of potential negative consequences, and then hope that the presence of that threat gets people to the negotiating table and you come out with a deal. Isn't it pretty obvious that that's what's going on here, that he's not actually planning to invade Kharg Island? He wants the spectre of it in order to bring the Iranians to the table.
- [12:54]
Augusta Precious Metals Advertiser
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- [13:47]
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- [14:16]
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- [14:52]
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- [15:25]
Major General Randy Manor
I hope that is the President's strategy. I hope that the President has the courage to declare victory and move on. My concern is the Secretary of Defense and the President have a very unsophisticated perspective of the unintended consequences of exercising these elements of our national power. And so could I see him doing this? Yes, I can. Because he continues to defy the concepts of the appropriate use of military power to strengthen negotiating positions. He seems to be attacking Iran because bluntly stated, Israel told him to, not because there was a threat to the United States. I fully endorse the fact that the Iran should never be allowed to have nuclear weapons. Allegedly, eight months ago the President said that he completely destroyed the capability. So again, there is a lack of clarity of the threat to the United States. Except for that right now the security of the United States in terms of economic security has been threatened by the administration's own actions.
- [16:42]
Host (UnHerd Podcast)
Who are these unsophisticated people you're talking about that are surrounding. Okay, so we're talking about Pete Hegseth specifically.
- [16:51]
Major General Randy Manor
Yes.
- [16:51]
Host (UnHerd Podcast)
What's your view of him? You think that he is a TV anchor and shouldn't be in the position of Secretary of Defense or where do you stand on the hexagon?
- [16:59]
Major General Randy Manor
His only socially redeeming quality is that he is extremely loyal to the President. He was a disgraced major that was kicked out of the D.C. national Guard while he served well as a company grade officer. This is essentially putting A major in charge. A major in charge of the entire US Military. He doesn't have the experience for that. The only reason why he was approved by the Senate was because Trump told the senators that they would approve it and it was by party lines the way that it was voted. This is just extremely sad. If you compare him to General Mattis, the previous Secretary of Defense under Trump, this is between a 0 and a 10. General Mattis well qualified to be the Secretary of Defense. The other person lacks any experience to be able to put him in that position, except for personal loyalty to the president.
- [17:52]
Host (UnHerd Podcast)
And what sort of effect do you think that has on the military? Speaking as someone who has lived, given their career to it, what effect does it have on senior generals and leaders within the military that their boss is someone that by their own kind of hierarchy would not be qualified? What does that do to the institution?
- [18:15]
Major General Randy Manor
The better question that I like to answer is, and I'll answer your question in a moment, is what is the impact on the families of military members who are in harm's way? While there are obviously about 20% of Americans who are members of the MAGA cult that no matter what the president does, they will endorse him totally no matter what he does. The remaining 80% of American military families are extremely concerned over their loved ones being put in harm's way for purposes that are not clear. Answering your question about what do the senior military leaders think? I've talked to many retired four stars recently. I'm talking about in the past week, in the past months that were extremely concerned about the and stayed as long as they possibly could to provide a buffer between the civilian leadership and the rule of law and treating everyone with dignity and respect among the military members. So it's one of those things where our American military, we pledge allegiance to defend the Constitution. The not the Secretary of Defense, not the President. And because of that, those leaders are in very difficult situations and they are doing the best they can to follow the lawful orders of the administration while ensuring the safety of their military members.
- [19:47]
Host (UnHerd Podcast)
I mean, this is almost kind of mutinous talk, General. I mean, you're not a serving officer now, but to be reminding people that you pledge loyalty to the Constitution, not the Secretary of Defence, not the President. It almost seems like you would. You're encouraging military leaders to defy orders if they come to that. I mean, is that your position? Would you like to see military top brass say no?
- [20:13]
Major General Randy Manor
So I think the most important thing is it's not treasonous whatsoever to remind everybody that it is our responsibility that we serve the Constitution of the United States, we, the people. That is not in any way. That is actually being a patriot, and I want to be absolutely clear about that. It is every officer's duty to be able to follow lawful orders. In the same way that Senator Kelly reminded everybody, which of course irritated the crap out of the Secretary of Defense, which of course now the Secretary of Defense has totally backed off because of course, it's freedom of speech. So the idea that we are supposed to do what is right is always there, always. And to follow the lawful orders of those appointed above us, it's not treasonous. It's actually being a patriot and it's being responsible to safeguard the lives of our young men and women in uniform.
- [21:07]
Host (UnHerd Podcast)
But you put the word lawful in there. Would you be of the view that if the President orders what you and your military colleagues consider to be a reckless and irresponsible invasion of Iran, they should consider it done in some way? An order they don't need to follow? I mean, do you think you're at that point?
- [21:29]
Augusta Precious Metals Advertiser
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- [22:22]
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- [22:53]
Major General Randy Manor
The CENTCOM Commander is in a very difficult situation right now. He is facing this dilemma right now because he is the commander on the ground. I Don't pretend to in any way understand the challenges that he's facing as the four star commander there in the Middle East. I would provide as evidence what happened to the southcom commander during all of the attacks that occurred on the meaning literally killing survivors in the ocean for these alleged drug carrying boats.
- [23:30]
Host (UnHerd Podcast)
These were the military strikes on apparent drug dealers crossing the Caribbean Sea.
- [23:36]
Major General Randy Manor
And somehow the southcom commander was removed or resigned. It's not clear why, how or what. But I will guarantee you there is far more to that story where potentially this is. Hypothetically, I do not have knowledge of this. He may have said this is wrong and I cannot order that. And therefore he was asked to resign or he was fired, I don't know. But that is a case that history will look at that about what happened with that commander.
- [24:06]
Host (UnHerd Podcast)
I guess the distinction there, General, would be you could make a legal case in that other example that it was an unlawful command because there are protections against just assassinating civilians or individuals who have not been convicted of any crime. Whilst something like an invasion of Iran might be a strategic blunder, but it's would be lawful. It'd be quite hard to refuse the order just because you think it's a bad idea.
- [24:38]
Major General Randy Manor
That is correct. The Secretary of Defense himself has in writing said, and he said again during a press conference where he said that no quarter will be given. Those words are the words of potential war criminals. I say again saying the words, we will show no quarter, we'll give no quarter. That's actually in writing a war crime. So the President can provide a pardon to the Secretary of Defense, which I believe he will have to do at some point. That will not protect him from international law. So I think that the list of people that will eventually be called upon in the Hague probably are going to include investigation of the Secretary of Defense of the United States.
- [25:20]
Host (UnHerd Podcast)
What's your best explanation for that whole kind of new tone that people like Secretary Hegseth are deploying? You know, they renamed the department Department of War. They're publishing kind of memes and almost like little ads for these military campaigns. There's a kind of machismo, I would say about it. And he really delights in sounding like kind of military tough guy. From an outside perspective, it seems like he's trying to appeal to his staff, he's trying to appeal to the military and kind of of get them going. But from what you're saying, you think that the military don't like it much.
- [25:55]
Major General Randy Manor
I will tell you that the military, other than very junior enlisted who quite frankly, when you're 18 or 20 years old, plus of course some MAGA cult members that are in the military, other than those military members, do not brag whatsoever about their capabilities. I'm an Airborne Ranger, Jump master Pathfinder, special ops kind of a guy. And I don't sit here and brag about it because you know what? There's no need to brag about anything about your competencies. People who are weak, people who are afraid of losing power, they puff up their chests. They basically start to say things that are bizarre. They basically thump their chest like a gorilla in the jungle because they actually lack power. They lack self confidence while trying to appeal to others that are like minded. So the bottom line is competent, experienced people, there's no need to brag. We just do what we do.
- [26:55]
Host (UnHerd Podcast)
Compared to when you were serving across those decades, including in the Gulf, how different is it now do you think? Do you feel like the Commander in Chief and Secretary of Defense are unrecognizably different to earlier Presidents and Secretaries of Defense no matter what their party? Or do you think there are historical kind of comparisons?
- [27:18]
Major General Randy Manor
In my 36 years of service to the United States, I've never seen a Secretary of Defense like this who was not qualified to be in the role in his saying things in writing and in speeches that are the words of potential war criminals. I have never heard this before. It's very disheartening and at the same time, as I mentioned to you, the military families are the ones who suffer the most because of the dealing with the uncertainty of what's going on. I think it's also very disheartening with the absolute rhetoric that the Secretary of Defense and others are saying about removing African Americans from promotion lists or women from promotion lists. That's very disturbing and again indicative of the fact that if you're not a white male ultra nationalist Christian, your future within the military is more limited. And that is something that is one step derived from all the public statements the Secretary of Defense has stated.
- [28:21]
Host (UnHerd Podcast)
You can discover more of these kind of conversations with an Unherd digital subscription. You get 12 weeks of unlimited digital access to unmissable articles from all of our writers such as Kathleen Stark, Glenn Lowry, Wolfgang Munshal, Yanis Varoufakis, and many more for just £12. As a subscriber, you can also watch exclusive weekly events here at the Unherd Club and read more in depth subscriber only investigations and deep dives. Not only that, we'll send you a free limited edition JG Fox Illustrated mug which features a punk protesting against offensive speech, which I hope you notice is ironically capturing our mission here at Unherd, which is to serve as a home for those still willing to speak their minds. Go to unherd.com podcast to claim this offer. Now, you were serving during President George W. Bush. Is there not a thread, a kind of continuum between the way George W. Bush spoke and the way the current administration speaks? I remember at the time, he now may seem like a kind of gentrified, ultra sophisticated president, but I remember at the time the view of kind of the sophisticated people was that George W. Bush was this kind of Texan cowboy that things like extraordinary rendition, waterboarding, his whole kind of tough guy approach to that period of history was considered outrageous by a lot of people. Do you feel like there is a comparison there and maybe the current administration is not so different?
- [29:57]
Major General Randy Manor
This current administration is nothing like the administration of President Bush. Yes, it's true that President Bush was somewhat of a of a cowboy compared to other leaders at the same time. There is no comparison. Remember that President Bush spent many, many months explaining the American people, developing coalitions with our allies both in the region, around the world, of course, with the UK and many other nations, and truly did work to explain what were the objectives of going in and doing different kinds of engagements in Afghanistan and Iraq. So there is no comparison whatsoever between the two administrations other than, yes, you could say, well, people didn't like them. That's always going to be the case no matter what party is in power in the United States. The question gets down to are they working on the behalf of the American people or are they doing it on behalf of themselves?
- [31:02]
Host (UnHerd Podcast)
Final question for you, General. I think our audience will have picked up the idea that you're not the number one fan of Donald Trump. Do you think that if and when he leaves office in 2028 and a more ordinary politician from either party replaces him, do you think the US and the state of the military goes back to the status anti as it were, or do you think a line has been crossed here and that somehow it will be hard to recover those norms and that sense of decorum that you're talking about?
- [31:36]
Major General Randy Manor
I want to be clear to all of your viewers, I am not a Democrat. I am not a Republican. I am registered as an independent in the state of Virginia in the United States. I have voted for Republicans for president. I have voted for Democrats for president. I vote for the person I believe is best among the candidates to be able to serve. I'm not a fan of this President. I can absolutely say that. Not because I'm a Democrat or Republican, because I believe that the American people and our military deserve a more effective leader. In answering your question about will the military be able to heal itself, the answer is yes. It will take some time and there will be, quite frankly, a reckoning for some of the officers who have been coming out as being extremely racist or of basically denying African Americans and women their ability to be able to serve. There will be a day of reckoning for those because that does not represent who the United States is. The United States military has always done, up until this administration, it's best to reflect the people of the United States. As long as you are going to declare your your loyalty to the defend the Constitution of the United States and you are competent in your job, we in the military don't care anything about your religion, your background, whatever. We only care are you a competent soldier, sailor, airman, marine, and that is what we would hope to return to in the United States military.
- [33:17]
Host (UnHerd Podcast)
Major General Randi Manor, thank you so much for your time today.
- [33:20]
Major General Randy Manor
Thank you, sir, for having me.
- [33:23]
Host (UnHerd Podcast)
That was Major General Randi Manor. Well, before I hear you cry, why have you found the most anti Trump general available and why are you platforming only him? Let me push back and tell you that not only are we going to be talking to John Bolton next week, he's someone who cannot exactly be described as a peacenik, whose views on Trump may have evolved, but he's certainly someone who is normally considered enthusiastic about the these kind of military adventures. But we also have calls into a number of other senior members of the military who are prepared to take a much more robust line defending the Trump strategy. Stay tuned. We hope and aim to bring you a wide variety of views, but always from people who know what they're talking about and have something specific and interesting to say. Thanks to Major General and thanks to you, this was unheard of.
- [34:16]
Augusta Precious Metals Advertiser
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- [35:09]
Progressive Insurance Advertiser
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- [35:45]
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