Was closing the Strait of Hormuz part of Trump’s plan?

Summary

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UnHerd with Freddie Sayers

Episode: Was closing the Strait of Hormuz part of Trump’s plan?

Date: March 19, 2026
Guest: Professor Helen Thompson (Professor of Political Economy, Cambridge)

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Episode Overview

In this episode, host Freddie Sayers (presented here as "Freddie Billo") discusses with Professor Helen Thompson the global ramifications of the recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid escalated conflict involving Iran and the United States under Donald Trump's second administration. Contrary to mainstream narratives that see the Strait's closure as a strategic blunder or an unforeseen complication for the US, Thompson offers a nuanced hypothesis: the closure may be at least partially intentional, serving as a lever to challenge China's energy security and reshape global energy markets to the US's advantage. The conversation also covers the effects on Europe, Russia's shifting fortunes, and echoes of historic energy crises.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Mainstream Perceptions vs. Thompson's View

• Prevailing Narrative: The US is inadvertently dragged into a long-term conflict, facing unanticipated risks with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Thompson's Counterpoint: Markets and commentators underestimate how fundamentally the region's security outlook has changed; "normality" will not easily return. The actual motives of the Trump administration may involve broader energy and geopolitical strategy, notably towards China.
• Quote:

  “It’s very difficult to see why anyone would think that normal is coming back soon... assumptions...have been shown shattered.”
  — Professor Helen Thompson [02:06]

2. The Strategic Logic Behind the Strait's Closure

• The "Accident" Narrative: Many see the closure as an unintended consequence or poor planning.
• Thompson's Hypothesis: The Trump administration might see chaos in the Gulf as an opportunity to hurt China, for whom the Gulf is a major energy source.
• Mechanism: The actual “closure” started not with physical Iranian action, but with Western insurance companies (particularly Lloyds of London) halting coverage for Gulf transit after a US strike on an Iranian vessel – effectively stopping shipping.
• Quote:

  “If you think…that actually strategic considerations about energy and the relationship of that to geopolitical competition with China is part of what this war is about for the Trump administration...then there isn’t really the possibility even of going back to normality when the fighting is over.”
  — Professor Helen Thompson [04:20]

3. Impact on Global Energy Markets

• China as Principal Loser:
  • The majority of Gulf oil and gas (and commodities like fertilizers, helium) go to Asian markets, particularly China.
  • US imports from the region are minimal; Europe marginally affected via pipelines.
  • China has tried to build reserves, but long-term disruption would hurt.
• US as Beneficiary:
  • The US is energy self-sufficient and stands to gain if prices rise or competitors’ access suffers.
  • There are efforts to make Europe further dependent on American LNG.
  • AI energy needs (electricity-intensive) heighten the significance of this shift.
• Quote:

  “The biggest loser of the absence of transit through the Persian Gulf is China.”
  — Professor Helen Thompson [08:22]

4. Alternatives and Circumventions

• Saudi and Red Sea Pipeline:
  • Saudi Arabia can divert up to 7 million barrels/day via the Red Sea pipeline, but this capacity is disputed and is vulnerable to Houthi attacks (who have made the Red Sea route perilous in recent years).
  • If the Houthis threaten the Red Sea again, this alternate route fails, exacerbating the crisis.
• Russia as Alternative for China:
  • China is revisiting and expanding pipeline supplies from Russia and increasing Arctic LNG projects to compensate for lost access through the Gulf.
  • Increased coal burning in China is a fallback for electricity generation.
• Quote:

  “If you were to see a situation in which the status quo... were to last for months and months, then China hasn’t really got, I think, a defense against that.”
  — Professor Helen Thompson [09:35]

5. Europe's Perilous Position

• US–Europe Energy Relationship:
  • Europe, post-Russia/Ukraine war, is more dependent than ever on US gas.
  • The Trump administration pressures EU to buy more US LNG, preferring dependency over European autonomy.
• Russian Energy Reset:
  • A possible, though difficult, return to Russian energy is considered unattractive due to the Ukraine conflict and domestic German/EU political positions.
  • Europe is caught between difficult choices, historically shifting between the Americas, the Middle East, and Russia, with each turn leading to new dependencies and crises.
• Quote:

  “You can’t have a simultaneous bid for strategic autonomy from the United States and at the same time saying, oh yes, our response to problems in the Middle east will be to make ourselves more dependent upon US energy exports.”
  — Professor Helen Thompson [22:40]

6. Echoes of Historic Energy Crises

• The current dynamics are compared to the Suez Crisis (1956) and the closure of the Suez Canal (1967–75), both moments when European dependence on Middle Eastern energy was exposed and tested.
• The United States’ strategic interests have not always aligned with European energy security, sometimes actively blocking European moves.

7. On Europe’s Role in Securing Global Transit Chokepoints

• European leaders are urged to reconsider their relative passivity regarding Red Sea and Suez security.
• The US lacks a strong strategic reason to keep these passages open for Europe; Britain’s recent military engagement in the Red Sea was symbolically important but ineffective.
• The prospect of a pan-European (perhaps French, British, Israeli) coalition to protect these corridors is raised.

8. Winners and Losers After Three Weeks

• Russia: Benefits from higher oil prices and can now sell oil at market rates to China/India after US loosened certain sanctions.
• US: Potentially gains strategic leverage, but risks domestic fallout if high energy prices cause recession.
• Europe: Remains vulnerable and forced to choose among unpalatable dependencies.

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On the unreality of “returning to normal”:
  “It’s very difficult to see why anyone would think that normal is coming back soon…assumptions...have been shown shattered.”
  — Professor Helen Thompson [02:06]

• On Trump’s possible strategic motives:
  “If you think, and I must admit I’m more inclined to this view, that actually strategic considerations about energy and the relationship of that to geopolitical competition with China is part of what this war is about for the Trump administration…then there isn’t really the possibility even of going back to normality when the fighting is over.”
  — Professor Helen Thompson [04:24]

• On who suffers most from the Strait’s closure:
  “The biggest loser of the absence of transit through the Persian Gulf is China.”
  — Professor Helen Thompson [08:22]

• On European energy dependence:
  “European countries significantly more dependent upon the United States for energy than they were before.”
  — Professor Helen Thompson [16:09]

• On Russia’s renewed position:
  “Russia’s in a stronger position than it was, both because Russia always benefits from rises in the price of oil…Now it can go back to demanding market prices from China and India for its oil. That’s a big gain from Russia’s point of view.”
  — Professor Helen Thompson [30:44]

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Important Segments & Timestamps

• Mainstream vs. Nuanced Views on the Strait Closure: [01:46–05:12]
• Insurance, Not Missiles, Closed the Strait: [05:40–07:29]
• China, Asia, and the Hidden Targets of Gulf Disruption: [07:56–10:20]
• Saudi Pipelines and the Houthi Threat: [13:12–14:30]
• Europe’s Energy Bind and the Search for Autonomy: [16:02–22:40]
• Historic Parallels to Suez Crisis: [28:38–30:24]
• Winners and Losers (Russia, US, Europe): [30:24–32:17]

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Memorable Moments

• Four-dimensional chess analogy:
  “My inferior brain is trying to kind of play this four-dimensional chess. I’m playing catch up with you, Helen.” — Freddie Billo [07:29]
• Reverse Suez Crisis Comparison:
  “It’s amazingly reminiscent of the Suez crisis in a way, although it’s obviously different. We had Aris Roussinos writing Unherd, saying it’s a kind of reverse Suez and that it’s exposing the limits of American power.” — Freddie Billo [28:38]

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Conclusions

Professor Helen Thompson provides a compelling challenge to mainstream commentary, suggesting that far from being a blunder, the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz may suit a broader US strategic goal of containing China by leveraging America’s new energy dominance. This shift has left Europe acutely vulnerable, caught between declining Russian options and uncomfortable dependence on Washington. The historical echoes of past energy crises underscore the cyclical and intractable nature of energy geopolitics.

Final Thought:

“One should take seriously at least the hypothesis that there is a strategic big picture rationale to this that goes beyond Iran’s military capabilities. It doesn’t mean that it’s going to succeed. It doesn’t mean that they’re not going to be like unintended consequences…”
— Professor Helen Thompson [31:41]

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Guest Contact/Notes:

• Professor Helen Thompson is a leading expert on energy and geopolitics, regular UnHerd commentator, and presenter of the podcast “These Times.”

For further reading and video versions, visit UnHerd’s LockdownTV.

Transcript

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[Freddie Billo]

Hello and welcome back to Unherd. The narrative at the moment around the Iran war, if I was going to try and summarize the mainstream opinion, is that it's going badly for the United States. It's much more complicated than they realize and they're being inadvertently dragged in to a longer term conflict. One person who we respect very much, who has a slightly different or at least more nuanced view is Professor Helen Thompson. You will remember her as presenter of these Times, a great Unherd podcast. She's also a regular on this show. She is professor of Political Economy at Cambridge, and what she has to say might surprise you. Welcome back to the show, Helen.

[Professor Helen Thompson]

Pleasure, Freddie.

[Freddie Billo]

Helen, the opinion of most commentators seems to be that although over time, with huge amounts of investment, America can improve the security of the Strait of Hormuz, realistically it's not going back to a risk free zone and so America is really in a pickle. Do you agree with that?

[Professor Helen Thompson]

Yeah, I do. I mean, I think at the moment that the oil markets, at least outside Asia are like underpricing the risks that are now in play. There's still assumption that this is going to play out by the end of the month maybe, or certainly the first few weeks of April, and then some kind of normality is going to be resumed. But I think it's very difficult to see why anyone would think that normal is coming back soon. And that I think goes beyond the military situation in the Gulf. It goes to the assumptions that in many ways have been shown shattered for the Oil producing states, the non Iranian oil producing states in the region, including that Iran will directly attack their oil processing facilities.

[Freddie Billo]

Basically you think this is a long term change or a major change to the kind of dynamics of energy and particularly for that region. You don't share the optimist. You say the markets are pricing in. If you look at oil futures, it sort of returns to something like a normal price within a year. You would say that this might have a longer term impact.

[Professor Helen Thompson]

Part of the difficulty in understanding what's going on is the difficulty in having a clear understanding, if you like, of what the motives of the Trump administration have been here. Because if you start from the assumption that this is about Iran and Iran's military position and that the aim of the war is, is fundamentally to disarm Iran strategically, and if that has the payoff of regime change, so much the better. But if it doesn't, nonetheless kind of job done at a certain point. And you then say, well, look, Iran's going to be weakened as a result of this, if it's assuming it's successful in this aim. And then that's the space in which normality occurs. And that actually it's a better normality than it was before the. Because actually the risk of confrontation with Iran has been taken away from what goes on in the Gulf. But if you think, and I must admit I'm more inclined to this view that actually strategic considerations about energy and the relationship of that to geopolitical competition with China is part of what this war is about for the Trump administration and that actually trying to change the geopolitics of transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and particularly perhaps to hurt China in this respect, then there isn't really the possibility even of going back to normality when the fighting is over. Because actually seen this way, it is a play by the Trump administration to change the strategic energy calculus in the Persian Gulf, not least for China. So in that sense, normality can't come back.

[Freddie Billo]

So what you're saying there is almost contrary to what most commentators are saying, which is that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is an accident, a kind of failure of planning. And how could they be so stupid? Of course the Iranians were going to do this. What you're suggesting is actually it might have been part of the calculus of the Trump administration. They wanted this chaos because the country it hurts the most ultimately is China, because a major source of oil is pretty much cut off for them.

[Professor Helen Thompson]

It's oil and gas. I think we've got to be clear that it isn't just about, and it's also about like fertilisers and helium as well. If you look at the sequence of events that led to what's now being called the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, actually it begins about maybe a week into the war, perhaps a little bit less, when the shipping insurance companies, particularly Veloids of London, stopped being willing to ensure transit through the Persian Gulf. And it looks like the trigger for that was actually the attack by the US on an Iranian naval ship near Sri Lanka. So the sense that actually there's risk of conflict all the way through the Indian Ocean going into the Asian markets, you can then see after a few days of this, which leads to tankers not going through that. Trump says, well, look, we're going to take over insurance and we're going to provide convoys to reduce the military risk and therefore reduce the perception of risk for the insurance companies. We can't really see that that's been translated into any action by the Trump administration, not in a meaningful way. So I think you can then say like, Iran has taken advantage of that. And you might now say that Iran is contributing to why transit is so difficult through the Strait of Hormuz because it's been firing across the Gulf. But the fundamental driver of the problem was actually the response of the shipping insurance companies. And I think that that puts things in a slightly different perspective just on this issue of like, what does it mean to say that the Strait is closed and who has done this, that done this narrative which says the Iranians have now closed the Strait of Hormuz,

[Freddie Billo]

but why does that help the Americans? I mean, my inferior brain is trying to kind of play this four dimensional chess. I'm playing catch up with you, Helen. But is it that the main part of the trade across that sea is between states like Iran and states that are closer to China and that America is more self sufficient and therefore it's kind of quite happy to degrade that.

[Professor Helen Thompson]

So the principal beneficiaries of oil transit, and just gas transit as well through the Persian Gulf and through the Strait of Hormuz is Asia, rather than either the United States or Europe. Europe has benefits to some extent. The United States imports a pretty small amount now of oil through the Gulf. The, the principal importers are Asian countries, including obviously China. If you then look at like where China's getting its oil from in the Middle east, it's getting them from the Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, more than it's getting from Iran. But the thing that changed during the first Trump administration because of the sanction regime that Trump put on after withdrawing the United States from the Iran nuclear deal was that about 90% of Iran's exports were going to China. Prior to that, then, the Europeans had been taking a not insignificant amount of oil from the Iranian regime, which is why they tried so hard initially to try and find a way of circumventing those sanctions. So the biggest loser of the absence of transit through the Persian Gulf is China. Now, there's several caveats to that, though, that are necessary. I think at the moment it looks like some tankers destined for China are getting through from Iran. But you can still understand that not in terms of Iranian control of that, but in the fact that actually the Chinese ships, or the ships bound for China, I should say, are not being insured by Western shipping insurance companies. You can also say that China spent quite a bit of time, you might also say, in preparation for this moment, building up significant reserves of oil to cushion itself, again, against the issue. But if you were to see a situation in which the status quo, if you like the new status quo, were to last for months and months, then China hasn't really got, I think, a defense against that. So you have to consider the possibility. And again, I'm just putting these things on the table because I think you have to have competing hypotheses about what's going on, that actually part of what's going on isn't just about Iran. It's about the Trump administration trying to hurt China in the energy competition which it is now engaged in with China. And you might say it's more than energy competition, it's a kind of resource competition.

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[Freddie Billo]

so Saudi, am I right? Can still sell oil via a different pipeline that doesn't involve the Strait of Hormuz.

[Professor Helen Thompson]

The Saudis can probably move up to though is disputed. Up to 7 million barrels. Like a day through that pipeline that comes out into the Red Sea. They say that they can move that much. Whether they can is like open to question. The issue that then comes into play there though is when do the Houthis come back into the story? Because if we go back into 2024 and early 2025, then the Houthis were effectively making transit through the Red Sea and into the Suez Canal very difficult through the drone attacks. And indeed the US and Britain, albeit rather ineffectively, were were engaged in a maritime operation to try to reopen the Red Sea and not really succeeding at that. So far, we haven't seen that much response by the Houthis to the Persian Gulf crisis. But I think it's a scenario in which they become more involved again, in which shipping through the Red Sea becomes difficult. Again, very difficult, again, is a scenario that has to be considered. And at that point, the Saudi pipeline is not a defense. It just becomes another part of the problem.

[Freddie Billo]

I don't know the geography of whether the pipeline, how far up the Red Sea the pipeline comes out. I mean, I'm just wondering whether there's a big macro development here, which is that Gulf states that are allied to the west could find ways to transport their products to Europe and, or America essentially westward up through the Suez Canal and, and America makes life extremely difficult for those states to transport eastward to Asia.

[Professor Helen Thompson]

In principle, you could say there is something to that. And that's where the geography of the oil markets and transit through the oil markets is very important. I think the question would be on that, I mean, leaving aside the fact that it would still probably be a hit because it's only the Saudis have got the pipeline and it's got, you know, limited capacity, is like, can you see the Trump administration being willing to be that accommodating to the European countries, particularly given the rows that are now taking place about whether European countries would contribute to an operation in the Persian Gulf? And if you think about the Trump administration like, general attitude towards European states where energy is concerned, it's been in a way much more like, let's try and make them dependent on the United States on American gas. So again, you might say, is it really in the Trump administration's interest in terms of the way that they conceive these things, not the way that we might conceive these things to be that helpful to the Europeans? I'm not so sure.

[Freddie Billo]

Right. So Europeans, in your scenario actually remain more dependent on American energy?

[Professor Helen Thompson]

Yeah, they still are. I mean, I think one of the big shifts we have to understand is that the strategic consequence in energy terms of the Russia Ukraine war has been to make European countries significantly more dependent upon the United States for energy than they were before. And that the Trump administration, since it's come back, has made it a priority to try to make European states even more dependent on the United States for energy. So you can see in that now abortive US EU trade deal that the big demand that the Trump administration was making was for the European Union to buy essentially a fixed amount of LNG from US Companies. I mean, More than was actually in any way plausible, but it's nonetheless evidence of their thinking, which is, let's increase European dependency upon the United States.

[Freddie Billo]

It's just such an interesting idea because it flies in the face of so much of the commentary, that sense that the cavalier or irresponsible attitude that the Trump administration appears to have towards the Middle East. Okay, let's bomb for a while now. Let's stop. Oh, let's topple the Iranian regime, or let's not. There is actually potentially a strategic calculus behind it because the Gulf is less important to the US than it is to both Europe and China. So ultimately, if there's problems in the Gulf in this way, the country that is least impacted by it is the United States.

[Professor Helen Thompson]

Absolutely. And in principle, then it can be a beneficiary of it in terms of gas markets. And I think the other thing we have to remember is if we go back to that strategic security report from last autumn, it is clear that energy abundance, as the Trump administration likes to call it, is both an aim and it is also a means of engaging in geopolitical competition and in lots of ways, AI. And the fact that AI is so incredibly electricity intensive has now intensified the energy competition aspects of geopolitics. Because you don't just need to be energy abundant to use this language to succeed at AI in state competition terms, it would really help if you could actually also hurt your principal competitors, energy security. And your principal competitor in AI is obviously China. So hurting China's energy security is a win.

[Freddie Billo]

So where does China go next? If the Gulf source of energy is a little bit more volatile or less readily accessible, what are its other options?

[Professor Helen Thompson]

I think you can already see it's back to Russia. You can already see that the back to talks, serious talks about a second China, Russia gas pipeline, the power of Siberia, first one opened in 2014, and it's looked like China has stalled a bit. The alternative within Russia, if you like, is to encourage more liquefied natural gas production in Russia through the Arctic, around the Arctic, and then through the Great North Sea Route, which completely cuts out dealing with the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, indeed, the Malacca Strait.

[Freddie Billo]

Does Russia have enough to supply China and keep it in the AI business?

[Professor Helen Thompson]

On the AI aspect of it, China will do what it's done in response to every energy potential crisis that it's faced for at least the last 20 years. Probably certainly the best part of the last 20 years, which is burn more coal, because that's central to China's electricity strategy. But The Russians are clearly sitting on more gas in the Arctic than they can presently exploit, perhaps in relation to technology, certainly in relation to what has been like the sanction regime. But I think that we've seen for some time that China has an interest in Russia developing more Arctic gas production and that will continue.

[Freddie Billo]

The picture you're painting for us is really of a fragmented global energy market where you have a strong North America that is plentiful and pretty much self reliant. You have a developing China Russia bloc that will be increasingly trying to be resilient against those external shocks. And as always we have to ask what happens to Europe? Because we're kind of stuck in the middle without plentiful energy supplies of our own. We have the Gulf on our doorstep. But that is notoriously difficult as we're seeing at the moment. Where does Europe go for its energy in this new bifurcated energy world?

[Professor Helen Thompson]

Well, I think that the interesting question here over the medium term anyway is are we heading for a Europe Russia reset for energy reasons? If you go back to the beginning of the post Second World War, or the big beginning anyway, let's put it that way, of the post Second World War Europe, Western Europe, Soviet energy story, it was the suez crisis in 1956. There was some Italian interest before then, hence why I say the big origin story. But if you look in terms of like West Germany and France, the Suez crisis is central to the attempted term because the United States under the Kennedy administration tried to thwart it to, to Soviet energy. And I think you can say that if you look over a long period historically that Europe is constantly choosing between dependency on the Americas on the Western Hemisphere. It gets to the point where it doesn't like that. That's sort of the interwar story. Then it has acute dependency upon the Middle East. I mean, I'm simplifying here, but the Middle east after 1945, it runs into the Suez crisis where it's shown that the United States is willing to exercise a veto over how European states can behave in regard to their own energy security interests in the Middle East. So you bolt off in the Soviet direction, you get to the Russia Ukraine war in 2022 and you then have like Germans who haven't got any liquefied natural gas ports at this point, desperately trying to get ports and German economy minister going off for meetings with Qatari officials about importing from Qatar, meeting US LNG firms about buying from the United States. You're always picking between one of these poisons, if you like. That hasn't changed now. And we know that dependency upon more dependency upon the United States at this moment is something that's pretty unattractive because of the way in which the Trump administration has been dealing with the European states. You can't have a simultaneous bid for strategic autonomy from the United States and at the same time saying, oh yes, our response to problems in the Middle east will be to make ourselves more dependent upon U.S. energy exports. Now, the difficulty with that is if you look what's coming out of Germany and what Mertz is saying is he clearly does not want to a reset with Russia, and this is the bind is that the situation with Ukraine makes the reset with Russia really rather difficult.

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[Freddie Billo]

So final question for you, Helen. If you are Keir Starmer or a European leader of a serious European power, do you think we should be more involved in order to try to help secure the Strait of Hormuz? Try to reopen those channels, Try to be more active in that conflict, defending against Iran.

[Professor Helen Thompson]

The thing that I think is hard for the present policy of staying out is the Red Sea. Because even if you take a more straightforward interpretation of what's going on than perhaps I've given you Freddie, and you say, okay, that the US really is committed now to trying to use military force to reopen whatever that actually means in practice, the Persian Gulf, and that it is genuinely angry that the European governments are not being willing to engage with Trump about that. You're still left with the question, like, of the Red Sea. It's very hard to see that the US has a deep strategic interest in military action to keep the Red Sea and the Suez Canal open. Just because so little trade, whether it's hydrocarbons or whether it's fertilizers or helium, is going to the United States by that route. That's just a function, like, of course, of geography.

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You see the headlines every day, but

[Professor Helen Thompson]

do they actually tell you what's going on?

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We don't just look at the front pages.

[Freddie Billo]

We look at what's moving beneath the surface.

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That's Undercurrents the new daily newsletter from Unherd. It lands in your inbox every morning at 8am EST or 1pm GMT.

[Freddie Billo]

Get the perspective that really matters. Get Undercurrents by me, James Billo in the U.S. newsroom. Sign up [e-mail] or you remember those leaked text messages From Vice President J.D. vance at the time where it was discussed whether they should be securing the Red Sea? He was furious that the Europeans weren't doing it themselves. He was saying, it's got nothing to do with us not going to send American military in that direction.

[Professor Helen Thompson]

I mean, the British obviously were. The British were the one European state that actually did engage in military action with the United States on the Red Sea. Must be said, that action was quite pretty ineffective. But a situation in which the British government recognizes the importance of the Red Sea and action there, but simultaneously saying to the Americans, Persian Gulf, that's your problem. Unless you actually are able to mobilise a much broader European coalition that is willing to take responsibility for the Red Sea and the Suez Canal then being confrontational with Trump about the Persian Gulf, I think, is untenable.

[Freddie Billo]

It's amazingly reminiscent of the Suez crisis in a way, although it's obviously different. We had Aris Roussinos writing Unherd, saying it's a kind of reverse Suez and that it's exposing the limits of American power. I'm not sure if we'd go that far, but it sounds like what we might come back to is some kind of French, British, maybe Israeli, European kind of alliance to try to re secure that passage, Suez and down into the Red Sea, because the Americans are increasingly not really interested in doing it for us.

[Professor Helen Thompson]

Yeah. I mean, the difference is, though, that The Israelis don't import from the Middle east now, which they did. They imported from Iran really, until the revolution. We talk about the Suez crisis, particularly in Britain, for obvious reasons being about 1956, but actually the major serious crisis in terms of the world economy was like 1967 to 1975 when the canal was shut, completely shut, not some metaphor for being shot, just shot for like eight years. And there was no power that was able or willing to keep it open. It was closed by Nasser in June of 1967 at the beginning of the Six Day War. And it was in the subsequent months that the British position in the Middle east effectively dissolved with being chased out of Aden and led to the announcement that Britain would be withdrawing from like east of Suez. And there was no move whatsoever from the United States to step in and take military action to keep the Suez Canal open.

[Freddie Billo]

Final, final question at the end of this three week period, is anyone stronger in your view, or is it just a sort of sense of increased chaos and uncertainty? Are there any players involved that are looking stronger than the others relatively now

[Professor Helen Thompson]

I think Russia's in a stronger position than it was, both because Russia always benefits from rises in the price of oil in particular, but gas as well, and because the Trump administration has loosened some of the sanctions on Russian oil exports in order to try to keep the price rises from going any higher than that they have been, if you just look at it in a relatively straightforward way. Russia effectively had to sell oil to India and China at a discount essentially since the first months of the war, but particularly since the oil sanction regime came into place. Now it can go back to demanding market prices from China and India for its oil. That's a big gain from Russia's point of view.

[Freddie Billo]

And the US stronger or weaker?

[Professor Helen Thompson]

I think that that still depends on where this is going, because I think that one should take seriously at least the hypothesis that there is a strategic big picture rationale to this that goes beyond Iran's military capabilities. It doesn't mean that it's going to succeed. It doesn't mean that they're not going to be like unintended consequences and that the US still has to deal with the quite substantial risk that the hit to energy prices will translate into a recession.

[Freddie Billo]

We'll find out pretty well in the next couple of quarters. Helen, as always, thank you so much. So much to think about. There was an absolute pleasure.

[Professor Helen Thompson]

Thank you, Tony.

[Freddie Billo]

That was Professor Helen Thompson, a regular, a favourite here at Unherd, whose breadth of knowledge, both about the real nuts and bolts, the mechanics of the energy markets, but also the breadth of history. I mean, she will recall the detail of years of the 20th, 19th centuries better than anyone else I know. It's always a pleasure to talk to her and as ever, so much to think about. And it goes completely in the face of of most of the narratives that you will read and hear about. Thanks to Helen. Thanks to you, this was unheard.

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