Unholy: Two Jews on the News

Episode Title: Emergency update: Khamenei Is Dead. What Now for Iran?

Date: March 1, 2026
Host(s): Yonit Levi (Channel 12, Israel), Jonathan Freedland (The Guardian)
Guest: Dr. Suzanne Maloney (Vice President & Director, Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution)

Overview

This emergency episode of Unholy focuses on the immediate aftermath and potential ramifications of the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during a joint U.S.-Israel military operation. Host Yonit Levi, speaking from Tel Aviv, connects with Dr. Suzanne Maloney, a leading Iran expert, to explore what Khamenei's death means for Iran, the region, and global politics. The discussion covers the history and significance of Khamenei's rule, succession issues, the prospects for regime survival or collapse, reactions inside Iran and from the broader Shia world, and possible future scenarios.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Man Who Was Khamenei

[01:42-03:24]

• Khamenei’s Background: Initially not seen as charismatic or powerful during his years as president, but built key relationships with the Revolutionary Guard.
• Consolidation in Power: After taking over in 1989, Khamenei "built out the institutions of the office of the Supreme Leader in a way that really developed a stranglehold over the state apparatus itself." (Maloney, 02:39)
• Hardline Vision: His security-first, hardline worldview deeply shaped both Iran’s foreign policy and its domestic repression.
• Legacy: "His very close relationship with the security bureaucracy contributed to a very hardline view of Iran's internal and external threats and opportunities." (Maloney, 03:08)

2. Why Didn’t Khamenei Hide?

[03:24-04:53]

• Risk Calculus: Despite a visible U.S. military build-up and previous assassination attempts, Khamenei wasn’t hiding, perhaps embracing martyrdom or underestimating actual risk.
• "He was determined to see through the project of the theocracy... less interested in his own survival than in the survival of the state itself.” (Maloney, 04:15)
• Context: Previously spent time in bunkers but was in meetings with advisors at the time of his death.

3. Regime Survival After Khamenei

[04:53-06:52]

• Succession Planning: Systematically prepared for transition over decades.
• Redundancy in Power: "There is already a transitional council that is prescribed by the Iranian constitution... I would expect at some point a permanent successor... whether that's an individual or some kind of collective leadership..." (Maloney, 05:49)
• Violence & Instability: Anticipation of a “very unpredictable and probably violent period.”
• “I don’t think the Islamic Republic is going anywhere anytime soon.” (Maloney, 06:49)

4. What Would It Take for the Regime to Fall?

[06:52-08:04]

• Elite Defections are Key: The regime’s survival depends on elite cohesion, not public opinion. So far, no significant defections after mass violence.
• Entrenched Ideology: “For the foreseeable future, I think we’re going to be dealing with a very, very dangerous and probably unstable and unpredictable Iran.” (Maloney, 07:56)

5. Shia World Reaction

[08:04-09:20]

• Sistani’s Threats: Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani threatened jihad but regional Shia militias have responded tepidly so far.
• Hezbollah: “Making a little bit more noise today, but was notably fairly placid in the immediate aftermath of Khamenei's death.” (Maloney, 08:46)
• Future Violence: Anticipates possible follow-on violence within Iran and regionally.

6. Khamenei’s Vision, Iran’s Ideology

[09:20-11:47]

• Deep-Seated Beliefs: Khamenei’s antagonism toward Israel and the U.S. was not merely rhetorical.
• “The ideology is deeply, deeply ingrained. It’s not performative. They believe what they say.” (Maloney, 10:25)
• Society’s Division: Many Iranians will mourn, but millions are “jubilant at the idea of Khamenei's death…” (Maloney, 12:36)
• Enduring Hatred: Hostility toward Israel and the US “are slightly distinct, but very much intertwined… this has been an abiding hatred that has animated the Islamic Republic.” (Maloney, 11:09)

7. Iranian Society—A Country Divided

[11:47-13:37]

• Difficult to Quantify Sentiment: Both regime loyalists and those who see this as liberation exist in large numbers.
• Generational Rift: Many young Iranians yearn for a different future than the revolutionary generation promised.

8. Succession Scenarios and Exiles

[13:37-14:56]

• Reza Pahlavi (exiled opposition): “A very decent human being... But this is more than almost a half century since he has set foot in the country... The idea that we... could see an emigre force... seems a bit of a stretch of the imagination.” (Maloney, 14:12)

9. What Happens Next?

[14:56-END]

• No Easy Answers: “We’re likely to see a sustained period of instability and uncertainty inside Iran.” (Maloney, 16:15)
• U.S. Policy: No clear American plan for transition post-Khamenei—Trump administration’s approach is to “leave it to the Iranian people.”
• Last Word: “That’s the million-dollar question today.” (Maloney, 15:23)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Khamenei’s Legacy

• "His very close relationship with the security bureaucracy contributed to a very hardline view of Iran's internal and external threats and opportunities. And he was a dominant figure whose loss is going to reverberate within Iran and across the region for many years to come."
  — Dr. Suzanne Maloney [03:08]

On Succession and Regime Survival

• "There is already a transitional council that is prescribed by the Iranian constitution... I don't think the Islamic Republic is going anywhere anytime soon."
  — Dr. Suzanne Maloney [05:48]

On Revolutionary Hatred

• "The ideology is deeply, deeply ingrained. It's not performative. They believe what they say. They say it again and again and again, and there's no reason that we should doubt that it will continue."
  — Dr. Suzanne Maloney [10:25]

On Uncertain Future

• "No. I think that's the million dollar question today... I don't know if there's going to be a positive momentum forward to something that would produce a better regime."
  — Dr. Suzanne Maloney [15:23]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Introduction and Impact of Khamenei’s Death — [00:00-01:42]
• Khamenei’s History and Rise — [01:42-03:24]
• Khamenei’s Death: Why He Didn’t Hide — [03:24-04:53]
• Future of the Iranian Regime — [04:53-06:52]
• What Could Cause Regime Collapse? — [06:52-08:04]
• Shia Axis & Regional Implications — [08:04-09:20]
• Khamenei’s Ideology and Iran’s Deep Divisions — [09:20-13:37]
• Role of Exiles and Opposition — [13:37-14:56]
• What Next for Iran and the World? — [14:56-16:28]

Tone and Takeaways

The tone of the episode is urgent and thoughtful, marked by both the gravity of breaking news and the seasoned, analytical perspective of the guest. Yonit Levi’s questions blend journalistic rigor with a sense of personal and regional investment, while Dr. Maloney provides measured, deeply informed responses.

Listeners are left with a sense of deep uncertainty about Iran's immediate future, skepticism about quick or easy solutions, and a sobering reminder of how entrenched regimes and ideologies can withstand even seismic events like the death of a seemingly pivotal figure.

Summary prepared for those who need a comprehensive understanding of this critical episode without listening.