Podcast Summary: "Israel-Iran war: Sunday update with Amos Harel"

Podcast: Unholy: Two Jews on the News
Host: Yonit Levi
Guest: Amos Harel (Military Analyst, Haaretz)
Date: June 15, 2025

Episode Overview

In the midst of dramatic military escalation, Yonit Levi reports from Tel Aviv on Israel’s ongoing, unprecedented conflict with Iran. With Jonathan Freedland away, Levi is joined by renowned Israeli military analyst Amos Harel for an urgent Sunday update. Together, they unpack Israel’s airstrikes against Iran, the strategic challenges and political dynamics that shape this new phase of warfare, U.S. involvement, and what might come next. The episode is candid, tense, and deeply insightful, reflecting the exhaustion and resolve on Israel’s home front as civilians are sheltering from near-constant missile attacks.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Home Front: Israel Under Fire

• Life Disrupted: Major disruptions—no public gatherings, schools, or workplaces; 28% of Israelis without access to shelters. Underground parking lots and railway stations are repurposed as bomb shelters, evoking WWII-era London or the Gulf War.
• National Mood: Though resilient, the mood is “exhausted” after 20 months of conflict, as relentless sirens serve as a reminder of vulnerability.
  • “Something about the Iranian threat, if we've learned anything from October 7, is to listen carefully when someone is saying that they want to annihilate you.” — Yonit Levi [00:50]

2. The Israeli Offensive: Triumph and Dilemma

• Striking Iran: Israel’s air operations in Iran, years in the making, are described as “breathtaking”—possibly the Israeli Air Force’s greatest achievement since 1967.
• Lack of Exit Strategy: However, both Levi and Harel stress a familiar pattern: Israel is proficient at offensive planning and execution but falters on long-term, strategic, or diplomatic planning. This echoes failures post-October 7 and in Gaza.
  • “We're very, very good at planning ahead for offensive strikes... We're not that good, apparently, at planning in advance for complicated strategic solutions.” — Amos Harel [02:18]
• Question of What Comes Next: Harel underscores the risks of no clear endgame—raising the specter of endless conflict or a damaging war of attrition.

3. U.S.-Israel Dynamic: Strategic Dependency

• Why U.S. Support Matters: The U.S. is indispensable for sustained operations and especially for attacking Iran’s deeply-buried nuclear site at Fordow.
• Unpredictability of Trump vs. Past Presidents: Israel has repeatedly lobbied American presidents for support; Trump is seen as both more available and less predictable.
  • “With Trump, harder to tell. There's a basic, perhaps a basic pro-Israeli sentiment, but other than that, it's a pro-Trump sentiment… Will Trump be invested in protecting Israel and helping Israel if Israel seems to be losing?” — Amos Harel [08:04]
  • Noted tension within the U.S. administration between military leaders seeking robust support and policy officials, and how isolationist trends in the GOP complicate things.
• Israel’s Leverage: The show discusses the influence of AIPAC and pro-Israel lobbies in DC, but worries that U.S. support could waver, especially if Trump listens to isolationist voices or if Israel is no longer “winning.”

4. The New Battlefield: Tehran as Gaza or Beirut

• Israeli Air Superiority: The show notes that Israel's air force is said to have achieved “full operational freedom in the skies above Tehran”—an unprecedented development.
  • “What we have now is a battle for time ... with all of the Israeli Air force's lethal and accurate capabilities on the one hand, and on the other, what kind of damage Iran can do to us? Especially pointing its weapons towards the Israeli civilian population…” — Amos Harel [12:01]
• The Missile Game: Questions over how many interceptors (Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow) Israel has, and whether Iran could outlast or overwhelm defenses by launching thousands of ballistic missiles.
  • “There's a possibility that if they keep launching missiles... It's assumed that they have close to 2,000 ballistic missiles that could reach the range of Israel…” — Amos Harel [13:45]

5. Escalation Risks & Ethics of Targeting

• Escalation Scenarios: Both sides are targeting critical infrastructure and command, but the accuracy and willingness to hit civilian areas is growing.
  • “This time, some of the fire was targeted at the Kiriyah base at the IDF and MOD headquarters in the middle of Tel Aviv… anybody who's watched videos understands how relatively accurate these attacks were. This is nothing of the sort of attack that we've seen in 91 and first Gulf War.” — Amos Harel [15:04]
• Potential for All-Out War: The conversation is deeply aware that all bets are now off, and that both sides feel justified in targeting cities, with thin regard for civilian safety.

6. Iran’s Nuclear Drive and Israel’s Gamble

• Real Bomb Progress: Iran is alleged to have dramatically increased uranium enrichment and is said to be preparing for a possible “final step” — something Western agencies have not corroborated fully yet.
  • “Nobody in the world produces such an amount of high grade level uranium if they're not interested in making the final step towards 90, 93% and producing a bomb, there's no other explanation.” — Amos Harel, paraphrasing David Albright [20:49]
• Questions Over Netanyahu’s Motivation: While Israel’s action may be warranted, Harel expresses doubt over Netanyahu’s decision-making in light of his political and legal troubles, citing the need to distinguish between justified strategy and self-preservation by politicians.

7. How Might This End?

• Best-Case Scenario: Israel maintains air dominance, Iran is weakened, pressure from the U.S. and other powers forces a settlement, possibly better than the 2015 nuclear deal.
• War of Attrition or Pyrrhic Victory: Alternatively, the war could devolve into a months-long stalemate, like Ukraine-Russia or Iran-Iraq in the 1980s, with no clear political or military victory, risking exhaustion and instability.
  • “Can we persuade the Americans to join? And do we have an exit strategy? ... I can't say that I sleep at night easily when I think of that, because... this is exactly the stuff which Israel doesn't really do very well.” — Amos Harel [25:01]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Opening Reflection on Israeli Anxiety:
  “This is a country threatened from day one... Something about the Iranian threat, if we've learned anything from October 7, is to listen carefully when someone is saying that they want to annihilate you.” — Yonit Levi [00:46]

• Blunt Assessment of Israeli Planning:
  “We're very, very good at planning ahead for offensive strikes... We're not that good at planning in advance for complicated strategic solutions.” — Amos Harel [02:18]

• On U.S. Strategy and Trump:
  “Will Trump be invested in protecting Israel and helping Israel if Israel seems to be losing? ... it's about the image. What's mostly symbolic was his behavior during Friday, the speed in which he claimed credit for this… Is he going to go all the way for us? I doubt it.” — Amos Harel [08:04]

• Escalation Fears:
  “This is a period when all bets are off. And this is an attempt to achieve victory on both sides by any means necessary.” — Amos Harel [15:04]

• On Iran’s Nuclear Progress:
  “David Albright…talked about a massive amount of uranium produced in Iran to a level of 60%. ...there's no other explanation for it.” — Amos Harel [20:49]

• On Uncertainty and Exit Strategy:
  “These questions, I can't say that I sleep at night easily when I think of that, because as we said in the beginning, this is exactly the stuff which Israel doesn't really do very well if you judge from the current history.” — Amos Harel [25:08]

Important Timestamps

• [00:00-00:50] — Yonit’s opening; Israeli life under threat; civilians and shelter crisis
• [02:18] — Harel’s critique: Israel strong in attack, weak in strategy
• [05:03] — Why Israel needs U.S. help; how each American president responded
• [08:04] — U.S. politics: Trump’s unpredictability, GOP isolationism, risks for Israel
• [10:53] — New air campaign over Tehran, Israeli air force’s operational freedom
• [13:45] — Iran’s missile capacity, Israel’s interceptor stockpile anxiety
• [15:04] — Growing accuracy of Iranian missile strikes; escalation dangers
• [20:49] — Iran’s nuclear enrichment, international assessments, Israeli fears
• [22:54] — Scenarios for war’s end; risks of war of attrition

Conclusion

This episode artfully weaves breaking news, historical context, and strategic anxieties into a riveting analysis of the still-unfolding Israel-Iran conflict. Yonit Levi and Amos Harel bring a distinct mix of journalistic clarity and insider perspective, voicing both the resilience and profound anxiety felt across Israel in these extraordinary days.

For listeners craving clarity on this fast-moving war—and the high-stakes dilemmas facing Israel and its allies—this episode is essential.