← Unholy: Two Jews on the News
Unholy: Two Jews on the News
Welcome to 2026: From Mar-a-Lago to Qatargate
00:44:42
If you have a relationship in your life that’s been strained by the events of the last two years, why not let celebrated therapist Orna Guralnik see if she can help? unholy@unholy-media.com Watch us on YouTube: https://youtu.be/98cZEB2eXmA Follow us on social media and join Patreon to get more of Unholy: https://linktr.ee/unholypod Benjamin Netanyahu gets a hero’s welcome at Mar-a-Lago from Donald Trump, even as his far right ministers continue their assault on Israel’s High Court of Justice. Yonit and Jonathan explore what this moment tells us about the road to the next elections. They also turn to the widening “Qatar-gate” affair, with troubling questions now closing in on the prime minister’s closest advisers. And, looking ahead to 2026, they try to sketch out the battlelines of the electoral contest to come. Plus, a crowded field for the weekly Chutzpah award and a salute to those still capable of extreme generosity.
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- [00:00]
A
You would not bet the house on this relationship. There is instability built into it. And in a way it's an, it's a compensation for that. The country wouldn't exist without you. And I'm going to give you the highest honor. Which should I name the country after? You maybe it shouldn't be called Israel, it should be called Trumpistan.
- [00:18]
B
Now paused for a moment.
- [00:26]
A
Foreign.
- [00:29]
B
It's unholy. I'm Yani Levy in Tel Aviv.
- [00:32]
A
And I'm Jonathan Friedland in London.
- [00:34]
B
And it is January 1st, 2026. I don't think we've ever had an episode on January 1st. So have a good 26. Jonathan.
- [00:42]
A
First of all, yes, I wish you exactly the same. First of all, you've interestingly preempted there my little solution to this issue, which is I do say to people, Happy 2026, because I don't feel I can say Happy New Year because I already do that in, you know, September, October, Rosh Hashanah time. And so my own little prime, you know, we talked last week about the Christmas issue and how my, you know, late mother and her family got around it with Kratzmacht, instead of saying Christmas, my private one, because I don't think I even really talk about this much. But my private one for New Year is to say exactly this, happy 2026 rather than happy New Year, which is reserved for sort of the Jewish New Year, Shen Hatovah, et cetera. But I'm interested in what you and your fellow Israelis do around this time of year. People have been asking me a couple of them, is it a total non event, both, not just New Year's eve, but even January 1st. Does it just go by as if it's a day of the week or is there anything that happens in Israel on this time?
- [01:43]
B
Well, like many other things, I would separate our lives before October 7th and after October 7th. January 1st used to be a thing. I mean, December 31st, people would have parties. I do think that after October 7th, the first year, after the parties were completely non existent. Maybe people, you know, kind of met their friends, but it wasn't. There was no party atmosphere this year on the cusp of 2026. I think that's back a little bit. That is my feeling. You're asking a person that book party is their, their extent of partying. So I'm not sure I'm the sort of expert on parties in Israel or any other part of the globe, but that is the answer I would give you.
- [02:21]
A
Book parties and children's Parties.
- [02:23]
B
Indeed.
- [02:24]
A
I'm counting on that.
- [02:24]
B
Sometimes you could do both at the same time, which is fun. Fun, yes. But that is the extent of my crazy partying.
- [02:30]
A
But in terms of, like, day people seeing each other on this, you know, the morning of the first, people will say, Happy 2026. It's not right. Okay, so. So that time has come. We're going into. We'll look. We're going to.
- [02:42]
B
Although we did, I think, import the. Have a better year, which we've also said in. In Rosh Hashanah. Right. Let this year be a better year than last year. That has been sort of imported into the conversation today, I think, as well.
- [02:55]
A
Yeah. And totally in my circle.
- [02:56]
B
I want to guess what the Friedland crazy partying thing looked like last night. Can I ask? I mean, I just completely confessed and came clean so you can tell me. You are.
- [03:05]
A
You did. No, no. I think we are cut from similar cloth on this one, Joni. So I think one of the great liberations of getting a little bit older is you become freed from that obligation that haunted my teenage years to be doing something crazy and exciting and wild on New Year's Eve. And there was then a second liberation after, I would say it was about a decade ago, when my wife and I stopped feeling obliged to even whether hosting or going to a sort of lovely dinner party or whatever on New Year's Eve, and realized the best New Year's Eve we could possibly have was for the two of us to be together and to see the greatest New Year's Eve movie ever, which we may.
- [03:45]
B
Have talked about quite perhaps once or twice.
- [03:49]
A
So, of course, we had already When.
- [03:51]
B
Harry Met Sally, let's just say to our new.
- [03:53]
A
I'm about to say we had a viewing of When Harry Met Sally to mark our 25th wedding anniversary earlier this year. I was about to say August 2025. So we did that with the whole family, actually, we had the whole extended family. And we did a lovely kind of outdoor screening. It was the summer that was great. Then we did the Marked again New Year's Eve by watching it again just four months later. And it's just perfection. We tried but failed to do the thing that had recommended. Actually, the Guardian website did a thing on great New Year's Eve films and they told you when exactly to start the film so that midnight would come in the film at the time midnight had come where you were. And that involved putting on When Harry Met sally at exactly 10:30pm we failed to do that. We put it on about an hour later just because everything was running a bit late. But it's just a complete joy.
- [04:52]
B
Flawless film.
- [04:53]
A
It's flawless. I mean, every scene. But the obviously extra poignancy this year because of the death of Rob Reiner, who, as we said in our, I think we did a bonus episode about this, met his wife during the filming of When Harry Met Sally. Anyway, it is the perfect way to go into a new year. We have now done it, I think, five or six or seven years running and it's perfect every time. So that's how we saw in the new year. As I say, I think you and I are cut from the same cloth when it comes to raucous partying to mark the new change in the calendar.
- [05:25]
B
Indeed. And also because I'm an archive buff, which is a fancy way of saying a nerd. I went through our episodes on the cusp of our last episodes just before the New year on Unholy. We've had four of these by now. We're celebrating our fifth podversary very soon. So I think it's interesting to say that the last episode, right before 2025, we were talking first of all about the fact that hostages were still in Gaza and we can't really see an end to the war in sight. At least those two have been almost cleared off the table. There's one deceased hostage, Rankvili, still in Gaza and of course Gaza is still with us in many, many ways. But that at least is a chapter that is closing. I think that's also important to say I put a damper on our mood for the beginning of the episode. So. And the other thing I kind of discovered is that we had an episode on December 30th of 2022, which was actually an emergency episode because the government's Netanyahu's sixth government was sworn in. So that government is now three years old. That's really jaw dropping to think after the failure of October 7th. Just a spoiler when we will talk about our predictions for 2026. I think we will probably mention the Israeli elections and all of that politics coming up later in our show.
- [06:42]
A
Yeah, no, we definitely will. Lots to talk about as we look ahead. So as you say, January, big month for the podcast because we are marking our fifth anniversary. We'll have more details of exactly how we're going to do that.
- [06:56]
B
And you didn't like Podversary? I thought it would catch on.
- [06:59]
A
Podverser is. Is perfect. It's our fifth podversary. You're absolutely right. But we do have a Very special program coming up, which is featuring the renowned, globally renowned therapist Orna Goralnick, who is obviously famous to audiences around the world because of the TV show Couples Therapy. As I think we did mention at the close of the year, we are inviting listeners to be helped in their own form of relationship therapy. With Orna Goralnik's expert help, we will bring stories of people, you know, real life stories of relationships that have been strained by these last two years. And Orna will be on hand to, to advise. I think it's not too late. We have many people a couple of days do this. That's right. We've got a couple of days left. So if you have a relationship in your life, it could be, you know, obviously a spouse, it could be sibling relationship. It could be you and your, you know, parent or you and your child, you and your grandchild, you and your grandparent. Just thinking, yeah, we've already, we came early for this with our war therapy episode, but where we actually did it ourselves, we didn't have an Orna figure there, but it's in a way, it's in that vein. And so hopefully some dust has settled a little bit and now is a good time to talk about all of that. So if you would like to take part in that. And lots of people, as I say, have come forward, all the contact details are there in the show notes for this episode. And as Yonit says, I think we have, you know, a couple of days left before that deadline expires.
- [08:39]
B
Indeed. So we will have our predictions for 2026 a little bit later. But now we want to talk about what happened this week, which is the another sort of, how shall we call it? Segment in the Netanyahu Trump bromance in Mar a Lago, this time the sixth meeting between the two since Trump returned to the White House. Really, I think effusive praise from the American president to the Israeli prime minister in an attempt to show that there is not only no daylight between them, they are so close, you can't Even put an A4 copy paper between them. It's very, very chummy. Again, the question always is in these cases, the difference between what is said out outside, but in what is said inside the meeting. But to me, as an Israeli, when you have the American president saying something like he's taken Israel through a very dangerous period of trauma, Israel with other people might not exist right now, is something to pause on. He said that a few times, of course, and now reciprocated with his suggestion, in fact, A declaration that Trump will be winning the Israel Prize, which is the most prestigious prize Israel can bestow upon its citizens usually. But the President will receive that during Independence Day at the end of April.
- [09:54]
A
Yeah, I mean, two things that struck me about this. One is it's not that long ago when Netanyahu could not get a meeting in the White House with President Joe Biden and on the podcast we were talking about, it's still not happening. It's a phone call, but not a meeting. Six in one year, less than one year, as you say, that's huge. It's also not that long ago that President Donald Trump, then ex President Donald Trump, said to Barack Ravid, you know, fbb and that he was, you know, disenchanted with Netanyahu and didn't want much more to do with him. So it is obviously, you know, a huge shift. Still though you would not bet the house on this relationship. There is instability built into, into it and in a way it's an, it's a compensation for that, that there is the prize handing out and the, you know, the country wouldn't exist without you. And I'm going to give you the highest honor. Which should I name the country after you maybe it shouldn't be called Israel, it should be called Trumpistan. You know, each time they up the.
- [10:59]
B
Anti pa. Yeah, okay.
- [11:01]
A
It's an idea. Somebody's going to get an idea that, you know, each time they up the ante because there is this fragility built into it which is that Donald Trump will give with one hand and very often take away with the other very, very quickly. So he was right there with the 12 day conflict in 2025 over Iran. But at the end said they've got to stop and I'm very angry, I'm not happy. And said no to annexation at the West Bank. From Netanyahu's point of view, this is unpredictable.
- [11:34]
B
To end the war, to actually sign the deal with Hamas, which Netanyahu, if it were up to him completely, that might not have been the case. Look, at the end of the day, there are two main issues here. One is Iran and does Israel indeed have a freedom of action if it sees what many are in the defense echelon are talking about, the sort of rebuilding of the, particularly the ballistic missile program. So in front of the camera Trump has said yes, the question here is does Israel and again, I'm not going too much into the weeds just because we want to help Israel's friends and not Israel's enemies. So does Israel receive from the United States the defense equipment it needs to go for this kind of plan of action or not. It's very nice that the president is saying, giving the Prime Minister the sort of freedom of action in front of the camera. The other question is of course Gaza. How much does the president push Netanyahu in what is the cornerstone of his Middle east plan to move forward to phase two of the deal? How easy it is for Netanyahu to do this. It's not easy. And again, even as an Israeli citizen, I still don't understand how the demilitarization of Hamas is supposed to happen when this international force is going into Gaza. How much who is part participating in this force? These are open questions that, you know, we still don't have an answer to.
- [12:46]
A
Yeah, I mean so many unknowns in this relationship. And that's why I think partly you, you fill those gaps, you paper over those cracks with rhetoric and blandishments and tributes because there are some underlying unknowns there. In previous relationships between Washington and Tel Aviv, there was, you didn't need all the rhetoric and the, and the sort of froth because the substance very clear and very certain. It's just this is just a very, very different relationship. On the point about Iran, I was struck that they, that Trump didn't allow himself more wiggle room actually by saying that if it's a resumption of the nuclear threat, then we're all in and we will be at Israel side.
- [13:32]
B
We're all in.
- [13:33]
A
We'll be there fast. Exactly. I mean that is, that's interesting because he, we know that is an issue that splits his own movement, the MAGA movement. A lot of the rumbles of discontent that are there in MAGA world. We'll come on to this in the predictions for 2026. You can trace quite a few of them back to the June 12day war with Iran. The sense that a whole lot of America firsters thought what's this about? And we certainly don't want that happening again. And here is the President saying if there's any threat, we will be there again. As for the disarmament of Hamas, I think it's interesting. He said there'll be hell to pay. He's used that phrase before. Never really fleshed out what that would mean. And again, not something you could bet the farm on because everyone involved in this process thinks it just does not work like that. Decommissioning of weapons. It's a long gradual process and it cannot even begin until that phase two begins and netanyahu shows no sign of being interested in Phase two. So I don't know where either of them, Trump or Netanyahu, thinks Hamas disarmament is going to come from if they are not themselves willing in quite a serious way to go deep into Phase two. That's the only time at which the people I speak to think it's even plausible that Hamas embark on a road that leads, ends up with them having their weapons decommissioned. Obviously, we're going to talk about it a lot about when we come ahead to look ahead to 2026, but that is obviously the big game in town. What are you reading into just even these latest signs about where they point to in terms of a date?
- [15:14]
B
Well, first of all, I think Trump gave Netanyahu a very useful line for his campaign ad. That is for sure. Right? If without you, Israel would cease to exist, that could be used in ads, just generally speaking. Look, the common thinking here is that we are, we should say elections are scheduled for October 27, 2026, just in itself. Pause on that for a moment. The fact that the government has arrived at this, whether you're opponent or a supporter of this government, the fact that it has arrived to this point after the calamity of October 7th is jaw dropping. But those are when the actual elections are scheduled. There will be early elections. They will be called either when Netanyahu thinks that he has enough successes to decide to go to early elections, or the Knesset dissolves because the coalition doesn't have a majority in the vote. About the budget, that will happen at the end of March. I remind you that contrary to the uk, you can have elections, speedy elections, in a few weeks in Israel, you need a minimum of three months. So if the budget doesn't pass end of March, what you're talking about is the earlier elections, earliest elections that happen are June. If you ask Netanyahu what he actually thinks, he'll say elections in September. So that is the ballpark that we're playing at. What we're seeing in the meantime is a flurry of activity in the Knesset. The coalition just passing everything it can at this moment. The ultra orthodox assisting for a while were sitting in the back benches and not voting with the coalition because of their argument over the draft bill. The main thing that passed in first reading and was incredibly contentious in Israel was this political inquiry into October 7th. Maybe we should pause on that for a moment and then talk about a little bit of the other bills that are passed. But this was the main kind of thing that the coalition decided on the decision is that the politicians will appoint the six members of this committee because the opposition says we're not taking any part in this whitewashing community. It will be in this whitewashing committee. It will be only the coalition deciding who these people are and Netanyahu himself deciding about the scope of the investigation. This led John Poland, who's Hirsch Goldberg, Poland's father was a hostage and murdered by Hamas. He tweeted out icebergs, you will investigate who sunk the Titanic. Please just tell us the truth. I mean, the thought that it would be the politicians who are supposed to be investigated here. Two will decide the members of the committee and the scope of the committee. By the way, Netanyahu already mentioned part of the committee would go back to Oslo accords, would go back to the disengagement from Gaza, would talk about the responses to the judicial overhaul. I mean, this isn't an actual answer that many of the Israelis want to these questions.
- [18:02]
A
Yeah, I mean, this is where, in a way, the nature of the media and the discourse becomes important about Israel, because obviously this is ridiculous. And the line from John Goldberg polling is perfect. The icebergs, it's like asking the icebergs to investigate who sank or what sank the Titanic. It should be absurd and it should be dismissed, but as obviously going to be a whitewash and not a serious inquiry yet. If you have enough media allies who will pretend that this is a real commission of inquiry, that will talk about it that way, that will say, why are there even calls for a state commission of inquiry? There already is one. And who will then treat the findings as if they're serious? You get to that situation where maybe half, 40% of the country think there's been a commission of inquiry, because when they switch on channel 14, that's what tells them. That's what they're being told. So that's what worries me a little about this, is it should be dismissed out of hand. It should be absurd on its face, this thing and this. I mean, we're going to get to our chutzpah awards later. But the chutzpah of saying, you know, first we're going to investigate Rabin, then we'll talk about Netanyahu, you know, we're going to trace the chain of responsibility back more than three decades and say that it's the beginning of a peace process in the 90s that ultimately led to October 7th, therefore it's no blame on us. It's so outrageous. And yet the media environment in Israel is such that you do Wonder if maybe with a chunk of the electorate they will get away with it. And I know media has obviously been a big part of the news in the last week or so since we been talking.
- [19:46]
B
Part of this package, part of this legislative blitz that the coalition is busy with, is also a media bill to curtail the power of the sort of independent media in the country. And also a decision made by the government government to close down Israel's army radio Galaytzahel after 75 years. We should say to anyone not familiar with the Israeli sort of society that Galitzhal is not your run of the mill military radio. It is an independent radio station which has a very robust news department. In fact, we should mention that your co host Post did her military service in that news department. It really is the sort of school for journalists in the country. And of course over the last couple of years, like other mainstream media outlets, been accused of being anti government. And so the government decided and it can decide. It's actually a decision, a jurisdiction by the Minister of Defense, Israel Katz, to close down the station. What happened after was that the Supreme Court halted that decision, saying it is legal, needs to be looked at. And the response by the Minister of Finance, Bezales Moto, far right minister in this government said we will trample the Chief Justice Itzhakamit, he is trampling us. We will trample him. And it just leads you to think there's a lot to go into what I said. But I'm just thinking, how did we go from three years ago almost to the day, it was 4th of January 2023 when Justice Minister Yeriv Levin laid out his plan to, as he called it, make necessary corrections to the judiciary. How did we go from that to three years later a minister in the Israeli government saying we need to trample the Chief Justice. I mean this is where we are. And it's frightening. By the way, this rhetoric will of course only accelerate as we move forward towards elections.
- [21:39]
A
Yeah, I think the link between the so called judicial coup and the media environment that I was speaking about, there is a close link there. The common thread is, is institutions which could act as a check on the power of the executive. We want to either weaken them or eliminate them. Weaken the Supreme Court, eliminate Army Radio with which despite that description, is, as you said, an independent branch of the press. It's the same playbook we are seeing in the United States right now and in the Trump administration, that weakening of potential restraints, curbs, checks, balances. It is the the organization Viktor Orban is wrote the book on this really, in. In Hungary and eliminating difficult media is part of it. Even actually the kind of sham commission of inquiry is just of a piece with that. So all of that going on, one last bit of domestic news, of which I would be very grateful if you would mop up for me because it requires a sort of Ph.D. your service, sir, to follow this, and that is the Qatar Gate and this latest interview given by one of the players in that story. You know, I think, you know, there will be listeners who will appreciate as an act of public service, just explaining to us what this new twist is and how important it will be for the Prime Minister, who after all is ultimately the figure at the center of this.
- [23:03]
B
Okay. Since we're still celebrating Rob Reiner's life and work, I will quote Jack Nicholson for A Few Good Men. You have to ask me nicely. No, I'm kidding. I'm gonna. I'm gonna do it if you don't ask me nicely.
- [23:12]
A
Even I thought you were gonna tell me. I can't handle the truth because. Because that is. Because it's so, so complicated. No, go on, tell us about this lady.
- [23:19]
B
So Qatar Gate has returned into our lives, as you say, essentially, and we need to kind of set the stage on this. These are the allegations that inside the Prime Minister's office, his closest advisors were being paid by Qatar to advance the messages of Qatar while during a war against Hamas. This is the sort of shocking, actually we should say, highlight of what this case is about. These are three advisors. The main kind of the Alastair Campbell, if you will, of Benjamin Netanyahu is Jonathan Ulrich, Elie Feldstein, who is de facto working under Ulrich, and Israel Einhorn. These are the three people involved. The case is still open, investigated decisions in these cases have not yet been made. And Elif Feldstein gave this Bombshell interview in three parts to the public owned Channel 11. He's also not to complicate things too much, he's also accused of being the one who leaked that classified document to the build newspaper about the hostages and Hamas not wanting a deal. We can get into that as well, but that is just to put that in an asterisk. And another thing that came out this week was the correspondence that proved just how the relationship between the Qataris and the messaging box kind of pointing to Egypt as being even dangerous for Israel and pointing at the same time to Qatar being this wonderful mediator in the hostage. All of this happening in the Prime Minister's office. This also led to Naftali Bennett Netanyahu's main rival in his elections. The way it's framing up, calling this the biggest betrayal in Israel's history because it came from the Prime Minister's office. Elie Feldstein giving this very long, as I said, interview many interesting things, but the bottom line is just how involved he was and just how much this was inside the Prime Minister's office. The response by the Likud was Elie Feldstein was never employed by the Prime Minister's office. I will just tell you in parentheses. This led our producer, Michael Porat to write back to me. Michal Porat was never connected in any way to the Unholy podcast. So that is in a nutshell. But please, if you have any more requests, questions to ask, just on that.
- [25:33]
A
Very last point, I mean, we're talking about chutzpah here. There will be hundreds of journalists and others who were, who, you know, were on the phone to Elif Helstein and when he was speaking on behalf of the Prime Minister's office. How on earth do they get away with claiming that this guy had nothing to do with him?
- [25:50]
B
Yes, of course, officially he wasn't paid by the Prime Minister's office because the Shin Bet didn't give him the clearance. So the question of who paid them and him and Howe also connects back to the Catelgate affairs.
- [26:00]
A
I mean, just to go back to the Trump Netanyahu meeting in Mar? A Lago, I don't think you mentioned that Trump repeated his demand request for a pardon for Netanyahu in his corruption trials and said again that he had swiftly corrected, incidentally spoken to the President of Israel, Isaac Herzog, who said that, yeah, something's coming. President's office then quickly say, no, that didn't happen. That is because those corruption charges are very, very serious. I don't want to downplay them at all. But as serious, if not more serious, are these Qatar related charges. The idea that in the middle of a conflict with Hamas, who were the beneficiaries of Qatari largess, that the Qatari worldview is being pushed, that the people in the Israeli Prime Minister's office are doing PR for an enemy state or the patron of the mortal enemy of Israel in that period, Hamas, it is extraordinary to think that that is a survivable scandal. And the evidence is piling up on the point about the very specific charge against Feldstein and this leak to this German publication, Bildt. Those leaks were designed to make progress towards a hostage release and ceasefire deal harder. They were designed to sabotage that progress. At that point, there was great pressure on Team Netanyahu to do the deal. And it helped him to have stories appearing in the foreign press saying there's no deal to be done. And that's what that leak was about. So this is scandal upon scandal. Naftali Bennett is quite right, I think, to amplify and to say how big a deal this is. In a way, it's very hard when there are so many charges and corruption charges going on to get things in the right proportion. This is enormous. And even though it does sometimes feel as if it requires a PhD, it is really worth paying attention to. And this latest twist is a big deal.
- [27:55]
B
Yeah. And as you mentioned, it is not a coincidence that Naftali Bennis is going very, very strongly on this point. Even if you were a die hard Netanyahu supporter, it's difficult for you to explain how is it possible that Netanyahu's closest advisors are doing this during the A war? And you rightfully mentioned that the Qatar is the sort of host for Hamas. And so what the Netanyahu supporters are going to say is he didn't know about this. He's detached from these people. They were doing this without his knowledge, all of that. But this will be definitely one of the issues that Bennett will still push on as we come closer to an election.
- [28:31]
A
Yeah, and it's never good. If your defense is people who worked for me directly in my office were doing things that I had not a clue about out, that's not a great defense. It suggests your own own team are out of control. Let's just clock one other story. I don't think the word, this word would have appeared on many people's bingo card for 2025. And that word is Somaliland. This is a kind of breakaway province of Somalia, not recognized by much of the outside world. But Israel has now recognized it, which was, you know, I think, caught some people by surprise. Just the reasons for it are, once you think about it, not that surprising. This is an area part of the, you know, if you look at the map, this is a useful place for Israel to have any kind of ally or even a military presence eventually in terms of its conflict, conflict with the Houthis of Yemen. It just means there's access there to the essentially the mouth of the Red Sea, which has been a channel through which arms and fighters and others have flowed rather into Gaza. So having a kind of presence there militarily absolutely makes sense from Israel's point of view. The other actor in the region that likes this, even though they're not making the same move explicitly, is the United Arab Emirates, who operate their own military port in Somaliland. And just quite interesting, a few analysts are beginning to say this is going to be, you don't want to get into predictions just yet. Something that happens more and more, this alignment of Israeli and UAE interests across the region, where sometimes one act overtly, one act, you know, below radar, but they're sort of in sync, they're in step with each other in ways that I think are worth paying attention to. I just thought the icing on the cake because it's, it's just so typical. There were some thinking, would the US Then, you know, follow suit and match Israel's recognition of Somaliland? Reporter asks that question of Donald Trump. Donald Trump's reply reportedly is, does anyone know what Somaliland is really? Which I just thought was so Trumpian that it was also in its own way worth clocking. So we come to our forecast projections, predictions for the coming year. I think you should go first.
- [30:57]
B
Yeah, I think I haven't mentioned it in this episode thus far. There will be elections in Israel. That much we know. Do you want to know who wins? Like, what do you want when you're saying predictions?
- [31:06]
A
Well, why don't you stick your neck out? Who wins? Who emerges as prime minister from what?
- [31:11]
B
Well, I mean, let's say this, I can tell you, I think, what the messaging box will be of each side. Look, look, at the end of the day, this will be the sixth election in which the question Netanyahu, yes or no is on the table, there's not going to be really a left and a right. There's going to be an anti Bibi camp and a Bibi camp. We've seen that before. The question is again, after the terrible, terrible disaster that was October 7th and the fact that the government that was in charge then and the prime minister that was in charge then are still in charge now will be, I think, the main conversation by the opposition. So they will talk about three main things. The calamity that is October 7, the fact that the government is to blame for it, or that the prime minister is still there while everyone else that is to blame is not there anymore in any sort of position. The failure to set up a commission of serious commission of inquiry, of course, is part of that Katlgate we mentioned and of course, the draft bill, the attempt by this coalition to exempt the ultra orthodox from enlisting in the military while there are still open fronts for Israel, that is what the opposition will be talking about. Netanyahu will be saying I reorganize the Middle east after the terrible disaster that was October 7th that I have no part in. I mean, he's not going to say in those words, but that is basically what we are going to be hearing. Remember we had an episode about Israeli math and I tried to explain to you why a man who only won six seats in the Knesset is going to become Prime Minister. Six seats out of 120. Those were the good old days. But the point is that now the question, the only kind of game in town is sort of 10 seats or 10 mandates. Will the anti Bibi bloc be able to peel them away from Netanyahu, Zilikud, even from Bengeville and bring them to the Bennett, the Lieberman? That is the main question. And really everything is open. I'm sad to say. I cannot tell you who will win because I still have an 11 hour election night broadcast in front of me. So I don't want to kill the raiders.
- [33:10]
A
Yeah, yeah, no, we look forward to that. No, I too would not make predictions, partly because of an anniversary we're marking. It's 10 years since 2016, the year people in our business learned no longer to make firm predictions after the Trump win of that year, which most commentators did not foresee. Some did, but most did not. So a hard prediction. I think it's absolutely right that it's impossible at this point to know who emerges. Partly because it isn't a regular election. It is this all the horse trading, the coalition. It may not even be clear in the 11th hour of your 11 hour broadcast. It could be that it turns on two or three seats. We've seen that movie before too. A question I'd ask as a sort of prediction is maybe of sticking my neck out, but there is usually one breakout success story. A party that does well that people again did not really foresee sea. And I'm thinking of the two famous examples. One is nearly 50 years ago, and that was the centrist party of Yigal Yadin, the great military figure and archaeologist whose Democratic Movement for Change just shocked everyone and won a whole lot of seats in what was anyway an earthquake election in 1977 in which the party which had ruled the country since the foundation, the Labour Party, was ejected from power. Menachem Begin became Prime minister. But that was another big surprise in 2006, again the pensioners Party. No one really foresaw them as being a big winner. Who could it be this time? The sort of narrative Twist on this would be if the breakout success that does better than polls foresee was actually a party that was the ultimate establishment party back in the day, just as I said from the founding. Could Yair Golan and Israel's Labour Party poll better than previously they'd been anticipated? To me, he's a fascinating figure, one of the heroes of October 7th. People know he put on his uniform, got in his car, drove down, saved people, rescued people on the day. He's a kind of a maverick and he does shoot from the hip. He often says things that people don't like and yet is still left standing a week or two weeks later. He's just got a little bit, not completely, but a little bit of that sort of Teflon thing that these populist figures on the right often have, where he says things that are very shocking and a lot of people are scandalized, but other people think, well, he says it as it is. So I just wonder if he and Labour, the Democrats they're now called. They might be. This might be wishful thinking on my part, but they might be just a bit. I'm not predicting him to be Prime Minister just to make that clear, but instead to, you know, perhaps get more seats than had previously been anticipated and be part of the arithmetic for a Naftali Bennett led or a non Netanyahu coalition. So that's one. It's not really a prediction just to be. For people to be on alert for there to be a party other than the big headline winners who get more seats than previously anticipated.
- [36:21]
B
Yeah, I would actually look at. Because the math is how are you going to bring people from one block to the other block? I would look at the sort of Milo Imnik, the Reservists Party that kind of started its first moves. The person who's currently heading that party is Joaz Handel, used to be part of Benny Gantz's Blue and White Party. That could be something because I think the anger towards this exemption from draft bill is cutting across many different groups in Israeli society that could suddenly be a party. That might be an interesting thing to.
- [36:54]
A
Look at and that would fit actually the historic template that would be much more like the pensioner's party or one of those grassroots things that hits an issue just at the right moment. Yeah, that's probably a sounder prediction.
- [37:06]
B
So we will move on to something that isn't Israeli politics. What do you think?
- [37:10]
A
Yeah, I mean, outside in the region there's a lot to watch. I think one subject we will will come back to because it's been in the news just these last few days are these protests in Iran. There have been full storms before about a popular uprising there. But you know, there is. That regime is very fragile after what happened last June. And then the other thing is just to say an issue that I think perhaps many people in Israel thought was just in the past in 2025, that is going to recur is the international condemnation of Israel over the question of, of humanitarian aid that is still back and on the agenda and particularly so after Israel's decision announced just in the last day or so to bar some 37 different aid organizations because, says Israel, they do not allow Israel to vet their staff and personnel. And the Israeli argument is there could be Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives working undercover, you know, under the COVID of these NGOs and aid organizations. Just big condemnation of that around the world. And it's just part of the sort of disconnect where as far as I think, in a way, you know, many people in Israel on the outside think this war is over. It's a ceasefire. It's done outside. Lots of people notice 400 killed in Gaza, according to Palestinian figures since the ceasefire. And now humanitarian aid warnings again about the, you know, the welfare of people in Gaza if that aid does not come through. All I'm saying is in 2026, that issue will not have gone away. It could come back and be big again. And this week, points a clue why.
- [38:58]
B
Yes, I mean, I think one thing we can definitely bet on is that sadly, in the meantime, Hamas, Hamas is still the strongest entity in Gaza even after more than two years. And so a lot of the information is still flowing into the direction of different media outlets around the world from Hamas. It will definitely still be an issue. Israel did commit to a certain amount of aid in this agreement, the 20 points. And I think it will stand up to that. And of course, the more Israel needs to withdraw and Hamas needs to demilitarize, will still be with us definitely throughout the year. Sadly, we're still in that story today.
- [39:40]
A
January 1st, as we record, is the first day of Zoran Mamdani as mayor of New York. Midterm elections will be a big story in 2026. It will be fascinating to see if there are other Democrats who run on a kind of Mamdani ish position critical of Israel. And if they too find it doesn't really cost them in the way that didn't cost Mamdani. It's just again, again, something to watch in 2026.
- [40:04]
B
Yes, and indeed I think our podcast will discuss Zoran Mamdani as mayor once or twice in 2026. I think that's a safe prediction to make. Mention chutzpah, sir.
- [40:15]
A
Let's do that. Why don't you go with our chutzpah first and then I'll come in with a. Oh, wow.
- [40:22]
B
I mean, it's a crowded field, it usually is, so I'll just go through them very fast. You mentioned one of the them, a member of Knesset from the Likud who talked about the Commission of Inquiry and said, first we will investigate Arabin, then we'll investigate Netanyahu. That's one of my nominees. The other is the Minister of Tourism here in this country, talking about the high price of hotels and saying, well, perhaps people should stay at home. And finally, Besar Smolic, Minister of Finance, saying that it is indeed the military's fault that it is not managed to enlist the ultra orthodox and not the ultra orthodox's fault. All of this has a common thread here, Jonathan, which is a. It seems to be a government that is running away from any kind of accountability that has to do with them. It's everybody else's fault, but not the fault of the people who actually are in charge and supposed to solve these problems.
- [41:15]
A
There is a low comedy to the idea of a tourism minister telling people, don't stay in hotels, stay at home, it's cheaper.
- [41:21]
B
I mean, he is making the. It is cheaper. See the beginning of our episode.
- [41:27]
A
Yeah, very much so. Okay, so I think, as you say, crowded field. A few mentioned candidates, but I think one who we want to clock and perhaps stands apart. The great philanthropist Maurice Khan, died this week aged 95. He was actually an immigrant to the country from South Africa, moved to Israel in 1918, 56, made his fortune from golden pages, which, you know, not dissimilar to Yellow Pages, business, telephone directories. But he gave so much of his life to various philanthropic projects. A big part of the infrastructure or, you know, talking about tourism. Anyone who's been to Eilat, the underwater observatory there that was started in the 1970s, was, you know, when Eilat was barely on the map, really. That was one of his. But recently in. In scientific fields, in medical fields, he had a. A charity, Save a Child's Heart, which would bring children from developing countries to have surgery in Israel. And the movement for quality government in Israel, one of those in some ways unglamorous causes where it's just about the institutions of democracy and of civil service and so on, making sure that the bureaucracy of the state functions properly. That's an important group that he funded and perhaps most famously and eye catchingly credited with Israel's moonshot, the attempt to get a lander, an unmanned craft onto the moon. He was a huge figure behind that. And the beautifully named the spacecraft was to be called was called Bereshit. The word Genesis, the book of Genesis. So Maurice Kahn just there for decades philanthropically, you know, funding things that were worthwhile. And that is somebody who I think gets. Makes a good case to be this week's definitely.
- [43:26]
B
And I think it's, it's. We should add that in an interview he gave a few years ago to Calcalist, I think he talked about, you know, the importance of saving people's lives. That's the only thing that gives you real fulfillment. I don't want to be the richest man in the city cemetery. He said he left most of his. He said he will leave most of his money to philanthropy, live his children a reasonable amount. But that is, I think such a beautiful thing to say really. So I think it's a worthy candidate. And thus we are wrapping up our January 1, 2026 show. Please all of you have a Happy and Healthy 2026. We will say our big thank you to Michal Porat, who we're sure will have have a great year this year and I will see you next week.
- [44:11]
A
Jonathan, we absolutely do say thank you to Michal and a reminder to all of you if you would like to be listened to by therapist extraordinaire Orna Goralnik as part of our experimental listeners therapy, if a relationship has been under strain for you in any one part of your life in the last couple of years, really do write in. And the deadline is soon upon us. But the details are there in the show notes. But we will see you next week.