Baltic Cable Cut, Trump's NATO Ambassador, Republican Voter Turnout

Summary

Up First from NPR: November 21, 2024

Hosts: Leila Fadel, Steve Inskeep, Michel Martin, and A Martinez
Episode Title: Baltic Cable Cut, Trump's NATO Ambassador, Republican Voter Turnout

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1. Sabotage in the Baltic Sea: Undersea Cables Severed

The episode opens with alarming news from Northern Europe, where two critical undersea fiber optic cables were cut beneath the Baltic Sea. These cables are vital, carrying approximately 90% of the world's data traffic.

Investigation Details:

• Suspected Culprit: A Chinese cargo ship named Ipung 3 is under scrutiny. According to NPR's Berlin correspondent Rob Schmitz, the ship's movements coincide suspiciously with the cable disruptions.
• Incident Timeline:
  • At [03:06], Ipung 3 departed a Russian port and passed over a Swedish-Lithuanian cable. Shortly after, the cable failed.
  • On the following day, the same vessel crossed the Finland-Germany cable, resulting in another severance.

Expert Insights:

• Moritz Braka, a marine security expert, characterizes these deliberate actions as "an attack on the connectivity of our societies" ([03:44]). He emphasizes the global repercussions, stating, "Someone wants to show us we can disconnect you all, and we need to show in return that we are not going to let ourselves be bullied" ([04:29]).

Chinese Response:

• Ningbo Yipong Shipping, the company owning Ipung 3, has not commented. The Chinese Foreign Ministry insists that Chinese vessels adhere to international laws. Notably, a similar incident occurred a year prior when another Chinese ship accidentally damaged undersea infrastructure, which Beijing attributed to an "accident" ([05:05]).

Ongoing Investigation:

• [05:23] Swedish authorities, alongside investigators from involved nations, continue their probe. The presence of a Danish Navy patrol boat suggests heightened vigilance amid "heightened tensions in Europe" ([05:45]).

Geopolitical Context:

• The disruptions occur against a backdrop of escalating conflicts, including the U.S. evacuation of its embassy in Kyiv and increased Ukrainian offensives into Russia, authorized by President Joe Biden ([05:50]).

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2. Trump's Nomination of Matthew Whitaker as NATO Ambassador

In a surprising move, President Elect Donald Trump has appointed Matthew Whitaker as the United States Ambassador to NATO, sparking discussions about the future of U.S.-NATO relations.

Profile of Matthew Whitaker:

• Background: Whitaker is primarily a lawyer with experience as a U.S. Attorney in Iowa and as Chief of Staff to former Attorney General Jeff Sessions. He lacks formal experience in foreign policy, national security, and diplomacy ([06:48]).
• Loyalty: Whitaker is known for his staunch loyalty to Trump, frequently criticizing Trump's legal challenges on platforms like Fox News.

Trump’s NATO Stance:

• President Elect Trump has been critical of NATO, often questioning the financial contributions of member countries. He has threatened to "leave the alliance" if members do not meet certain defense spending targets ([06:25]).

Expert Analysis:

• Michael O'Hanlon from the Brookings Institute suggests that Whitaker’s role will likely involve "pulling back America's role in European geopolitics", rather than withdrawing from NATO entirely ([08:05], [08:32]).
• Stephen Fowler notes the importance of presidential access, stating, "You can be a brilliant expert on European security, but if you have no access to the president or limited access even to the secretary of state, it's not going to do that much for you" ([09:04], [09:15]).

Implications for Ukraine:

• With Whitaker at the helm, there are concerns about the U.S.'s commitment to Ukraine. Trump has hinted at a desire for a "quick end to the war in Ukraine", which may not align with NATO’s strategies or Ukraine’s objectives ([08:44]).

Strategic Impact:

• Whitaker’s appointment could signal a more transactional approach to NATO relationships, emphasizing "America first" policies and potentially altering the dynamics of ongoing support in conflicts like the one in Ukraine ([09:15]).

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3. Record Voter Turnout Boosts Republican Victory

Contrary to longstanding political theories, the recent presidential election saw a record high voter turnout that favored the Republicans, challenging the belief that increased participation typically benefits Democrats.

Election Highlights:

• The turnout rate is the third highest in 100 years, with Republicans securing control of the House, Senate, and the Presidency ([09:59]).

Shifting Paradigms:

• Traditionally, high turnout is associated with Democratic gains as it mobilizes low propensity voters who are often less educated and economically disadvantaged ([10:09]).
• However, Trump’s strategies have disrupted this pattern. Exit polls revealed strong Republican performances among non-college-educated voters and first-time voters ([10:23]).

Impact on GOP Strategies:

• The success despite high turnout may lead Republicans to reassess their stance on voter accessibility. Historically, the GOP has opposed measures that facilitate easier voting, citing concerns over election security ([11:09]).
• Experts like Michael O'Hanlon highlight that Trump's success may encourage the party to embrace voter participation, especially methods like early voting and mail-in ballots that have been pivotal in recent elections ([12:08]).

Internal Party Dynamics:

• There remains a divide within the Republican Party. While some factions are reconsidering their approach to voter access, the MAGA-right remains skeptical about expanding the electorate, often associating it with demographic shifts and political dilution ([13:12]).

Future Outlook:

• The GOP faces a strategic crossroads: maintain traditional voter suppression tactics or adapt to the changing electorate dynamics that have proven advantageous in recent elections ([12:55]).
• The evolving stance on voter turnout and accessibility could significantly influence future electoral strategies and policy formulations within the party.

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Conclusion

This episode of Up First from NPR delves into pressing international security concerns with the potential sabotage of vital undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, the controversial appointment of a politically aligned yet inexperienced ambassador to NATO by President Elect Trump, and an unexpected electoral outcome where high voter turnout has surprisingly benefited the Republicans. These discussions underscore shifting geopolitical tensions and evolving political strategies that may reshape both international alliances and domestic political landscapes.

Notable Quotes:

• Moritz Braka: "Someone wants to show us we can disconnect you all, and we need to show in return that we are not going to let ourselves be bullied" ([04:29]).
• Stephen Fowler: "You can be a brilliant expert on European security, but if you have no access to the president or limited access even to the secretary of state, it's not going to do that much for you" ([09:04]).

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Produced by: Zia Bach, Nia Dumas, Milton Guevara
Edited by: Miguel Macias, Megan Pratt, Ben Swayze, Mohamed Elbardisi, Alice Wolfley
Engineering Support: Robert Rodriguez
Technical Director: Zach Coleman

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Transcript

[E. Martinez]

Before we get to all the news, we want to hear from you, our audience survey is your chance to tell us what you like and what you don't like about Up First. Help us shape this podcast to fit your mornings. Even better, just head to npr.org upfirstsurvey Wait a minute.

[Steve Inskeep]

I can tell you what I don't like. What if there's one of the hosts I have a problem with?

[E. Martinez]

Don't think I just opened the door for people to do that.

[Steve Inskeep]

The torch will wide open. Let's go with the music. European investigators are asking how two cables were cut beneath the surface of the Baltic Sea.

[E. Martinez]

A German official calls it sabotage, affecting the type of cable that carries 90% of the world's data traffic. Who are the suspects?

[Steve Inskeep]

I'm Steve Inskeep with a Martinez, and this is up first from NPR News. The president elect chose a loyalist as ambassador to NATO. Matthew Whitaker has no foreign policy experience but served in the first Trump administration.

[Stephen Fowler]

You can be a brilliant expert on European security, but if you have no access to the president, it's not going to do that much for you.

[Steve Inskeep]

So how could the ambassador and his boss approach the war in Ukraine?

[E. Martinez]

And with record high voter turnout helping Republicans win this election, will the GOP start to rethink their stance on policies that make voting easier? Stay with us. We've got all the news you need to start your day. This message comes from NPR sponsor Saatva. Founder and CEO Ron Rudzen shares the.

[Rob Schmitz]

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[E. Martinez]

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[Rob Schmitz]

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[Miles Parks]

This message comes from BetterHelp. It's important to take time to show gratitude towards others, but it's equally important to thank yourself. Life throws a lot of curveballs, and being grateful isn't always easy. Therapy can help remind you of all that you're worthy of and all that you do have. Let the gratitude flow with BetterHelp. [e-mail] NPR today to get 10% off your first month. This message comes from HubSpot. Growing a business means a lot of audience, attracting, lead scoring and long days. But with HubSpot, it's easier than ever for marketers to remix content, boost leads and Score customers fast.

[E. Martinez]

Learn [e-mail] marketers undersea cables carrying Internet traffic across the Baltic Sea in Northern Europe were severed earlier this week, and European investigators are still trying to piece together what happened.

[Steve Inskeep]

Germany's defense minister calls this an act of sabotage. The Danish navy stopped a Chinese cargo ship in the region, investigating a possible connection.

[E. Martinez]

NPR's Berlin correspondent Rob Schmitz joins us now. So, Rob, Steve mentioned that Chinese cargo ship. What makes investigators think it had something to do with this?

[Moritz Braka]

Yeah. This Chinese vessel named the Ipung 3, left a Russian port on the Baltic Sea six days ago. And according to investigators, it passed over an undersea fiber optic cable connecting Sweden and Lithuania Sunday morning. And shortly after that, the cable operator noticed that it had stopped working and later found out that the cable had been severed. Then on Monday morning, investigators say the same ship passed over a telecommunications cable connecting Finland and Germany, and two minutes after that, that cable stopped working and its operator discovered it had been cut as well. And that's why Swedish officials are investigating the EPunk 3. But they say they're also looking into other ships, saying there could be more parties involved.

[E. Martinez]

Okay, so the cables were severed. Did it lead to any communications outages in Europe?

[Moritz Braka]

There was a temporary reduction in Internet service in Lithuania after this happened, but the local operator rerouted traffic and it all improved. But according to Moritz Braka, a marine security expert, what's most important here is that this type of action, which he believes was intentional, should be considered an attack. Here he is speaking to German public media, and he's saying here over 90% of the world's data traffic runs oversea cables like these. He said, and this means someone is trying to destroy the. The connectivity of our societies. Someone wants to show us we can disconnect you all, and we need to show in return that we are not going to let ourselves be bullied.

[E. Martinez]

Okay, so what are the Chinese saying about this?

[Moritz Braka]

Well, the company that owns the Yipong 3, Ningbo Yipong shipping, is not responding to requests for comment. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman in Beijing said the Chinese government requires Chinese ships to adhere to relevant laws. But it is worth mentioning here that a year ago, another Chinese ship destroyed undersea cables and an undersea gas line connecting Finland and Estonia in the region of the Baltic Sea. A Finnish investigation found that the ship had been dragging its anchor for hundreds of miles, scraping the bottom of the sea. China's government admitted that the vessel was responsible for all that damage, but claimed it was all an accident.

[E. Martinez]

An accident? Any suspicion that the Chinese ship was somehow in cahoots with Russia.

[Moritz Braka]

Well, there might be suspicion about that and social media is sort of a buzz with all sorts of speculation. But at this moment, authorities have not released any evidence about any such connection. And it is important to reiterate here that this is still very much an open investigation.

[E. Martinez]

Okay, so where does that investigation go now?

[Moritz Braka]

So Swedish investigators are now being joined by investigators from the other countries involved. And a real time GPS map of shipping traffic shows that the Chinese cargo ship has not moved in the day that it's been there. And there's a Danish Navy patrol boat floating beside it. This investigation could likely take a week or longer to conclude due to the bad weather in the region.

[E. Martinez]

And to add a layer here, I mean, this comes at a time where there's some pretty heightened tensions in Europe.

[Moritz Braka]

Yeah. The US Evacuated its embassy in Kyiv yesterday, bracing for Russian attacks. Ukraine has used both American and British long range missiles to attack Russia after President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to attack targets inside of Russia for the first time. So it's clear that tensions in Europe are heating up.

[E. Martinez]

That's NPR's Rob Schmitz. Rob, thanks.

[Moritz Braka]

Thank you.

[E. Martinez]

NATO is one of the many national and global institutions that President Elect Donald Trump has criticized over the years, specifically how much money other countries spend on defense.

[Steve Inskeep]

The president elect has suggested that Russia could, quote, do whatever the hell they want to members that don't pay their fair share. He's threatened to leave the alliance at times, and now he's named a new ambassador with no foreign policy experience to represent America's interests in NATO.

[E. Martinez]

NPR Stephen Fowler joins us now. So Donald Trump, Stephen, announced he's nominating Matthew Whitaker to that role. Who is Matthew Whitaker and what does Donald Trump want him to do?

[Rob Schmitz]

Whitaker's a lawyer. He once served as a U.S. attorney in Iowa, but more recently served as chief of staff to Trump's first attorney General, Jeff Sessions. He later spent three months as acting ag. Whitaker has no national security experience, no foreign policy experience, no diplomatic background, and is unlike other NATO ambassadors. But what he does have is an intense loyalty to Donald Trump. He's been very active in blasting Trump's criminal investigations, especially through appearances on Fox News. And Trump said in the announcement, Whitaker will strengthen relationships with our NATO allies and stand firm in the face of threats to peace and stability. He will put America first.

[E. Martinez]

Okay. Now, is Whitaker's selection a signal of Donald Trump taking a tougher stance toward Europe?

[Rob Schmitz]

Whitaker comes in with a blank slate that will immediately be filled with Trump's mandate. Now, Trump's main beef with NATO a boils down to the US Paying an outsized financial and organizational role in a European alliance. So I called a few experts to ask what posture Whitake Anatole Levin is with the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. They're a think tank that calls for restraint in US Foreign policy. He pointed out that Trump's top foreign policy priorities in the Middle east require having friends elsewhere.

[Michael O'Hanlon]

America is not a European country. It's thousands of miles away. The US Mediterranean Fleet needs a base in Italy and Greece. The US Air Force needs a base in Germany.

[Rob Schmitz]

I also spoke with Michael O'Hanlon with the Brookings Institute. He studies international alliances and highlighted the part of Trump's statement about strengthening relationships suggest Trump would not pull out of NATO, but rather pull back America's role in European geopolitics.

[Stephen Fowler]

I think that if Trump threatens allies with the possibility of weakening the U.S. commitment to NATO, but still stays in the alliance and keeps U.S. troops in Europe, then we'll be okay.

[E. Martinez]

Thing is, though, Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine quickly. And Ukraine's key focus of NATO resources. I mean, how does this pick fit into that?

[Rob Schmitz]

Well, when dealing with NATO in conversations around the war, O'Hanlon with the Brookings Institute says Whitaker may have one advantage that arguably is very important, and that's Trump's ear.

[Stephen Fowler]

You can be a brilliant expert on European security going back to the Middle Ages, but if you have no access to the president or limited access even to the secretary of state, it's not going to do that much for you.

[Rob Schmitz]

Trump has signaled that the America first agenda includes some doubt about how much the US Will commit to Ukraine and the war effort. It's also possible that his proposed peace plan could be different from NATO's goals, especially if Trump suggests Ukraine give up some of its territory. So all of this a makes the NATO ambassadorship one of Trump's picks that has a more immediate impact as soon as he takes office in January.

[E. Martinez]

All right, that's NPR's Stephen Fowler in Atlanta. Steven, good to talk to you again.

[Rob Schmitz]

Thank you.

[Steve Inskeep]

Hey, folks, you showed up. The turnout rate in this year's presidential election looks to be the third highest in 100 years.

[E. Martinez]

Yeah, and Republicans did really well. They won control of the House, Senate, and the presidency. That directly contradicts conventional political wisdom. That high turnout inherently favors Democrats.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR's voting correspondent Miles Parks has been looking into this, and he's in our studios. Good morning, Miles. Hey, Steve, thanks for coming by. Studio 31, how do you think now about this general idea for many years that turnout, high turnout favors Democrats.

[Michael O'Hanlon]

So this idea was never a hard and fast rule. It centers on people who only vote, usually in big presidential races or every once in a while, people known as low propensity voters. Research has found that these sorts of people are generally less educated, are poorer people, generally, and those sorts of people have tended to vote for Democratic candidates. Therefore, higher turnout brings out more of these sorts of people, helps Democrats. But Trump seems to have really changed the game here. Exit polls found that he did really well among people without a college degree and also won people who said it was the first time they'd ever cast a ballot. So the question now is whether this is going to change how Republicans feel about voter turnout and also, critically, policies that make voting easier, since those policies have been shown to help low propensity voters the most.

[Steve Inskeep]

Oh, and up to now, Republicans as a party have fought efforts to make voting easier. In fact, that was the heart of their complaints about the 2020 election, was voting was too easy.

[Michael O'Hanlon]

Right. And generally those complaints have been centered on election security. But politics have always played a role as well. I talked with John Merrill, who is the former top voting official in Alabama, he's a Republican, and he told me how he used to argue with fellow Republicans about whether registering new voters was a good idea.

[Rob Schmitz]

I had people, when I would speak to some Republican groups, they tell me, I don't like that. I don't think it's a good thing. And I'm like, why would you say that? And they're like, because you're going to get more blacks and you're going to get more Democrats.

[Michael O'Hanlon]

It is not usually said out loud that explicitly, but Trump himself in 2020 said he thought higher voting levels would mean that Republicans would have a harder time getting elected. I'm really interested to see if his views on that change now, that he seems to have benefited from a high turnout election.

[Steve Inskeep]

And there is this longstanding kind of conservative line of argument that maybe not everybody should vote because a lot of people, people aren't paying attention and maybe you really don't want their participation. But that was the old way of thinking. So is this shift to a new way for Republicans to think really happening?

[Michael O'Hanlon]

I think it's helpful to think about the Republican Party in different kind of groups or factions. Right. Some conservatives have argued for years that making it harder for people to vote was actually bad for the party. And this year we saw a real shift in strategy compared to 2020. Specifically with many Republican campaigns embracing the idea of early voting and mail voting, telling voters to vote that way. But what I heard from experts, as I of the story, was that the Trump right, the most kind of MAGA right, may still struggle with the idea of access a little bit. Here's how Charles Stewart, who's a voting expert at mit, put it to me.

[E. Martinez]

If you're a Republican strategist, it does require you to kind of rethink some of these things. If you're part of the Republican Party that really is motivated by nativism and nationalism, I think it's going to be harder to make that leap.

[Michael O'Hanlon]

There is just a clear opposition among some in the Republican Party to widening the tent of American politics. We see this in survey data. And over the last couple years, I've listened to a bunch of grassroots election integrity sort of meetings, and you can hear skepticism about bringing new people into the electorate.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR's Miles Parks turned out in our studios this morning. Thanks for coming by.

[Michael O'Hanlon]

Thanks, Steve.

[E. Martinez]

And that's up first for Thursday, November 21st. I'm E. Martinez.

[Steve Inskeep]

And I'm Steve Inskeep. Remember, you can take our audience survey, your chance to tell us what you think about Up First. It helps to make this podcast better. Just go to npr.org upfirstsurvey.

[E. Martinez]

Today's episode of Up first was edited by Miguel Macias, Megan Pratt, Ben Swayze, Mohamed Elbardisi, and Alice Wolfley. It was produced by Zia Bach, Nia Dumas and Milton Guevara. We get engineering support from Robert Rodriguez, and our technical director is Zach Coleman. Join us again tomorrow.

[Miles Parks]

Want to hear this podcast without sponsor breaks? Amazon prime members can listen to up first sponsor free through Amazon Music. Or you can also support NPR's vital journalism and get up first [e-mail] that's.

[E. Martinez]

Plus.Npr.Org this message comes from NPR sponsor Rosetta Stone, an expert in language learning for 30 years. Right now, NPR listeners can get Rosetta Stone's lifetime membership to 25 different languages for 50% off. Learn more at RosettaStone.com NPR this message.

[Miles Parks]

Comes from NPR sponsor Mint Mobile. From the gas pump to the grocery store, inflation is everywhere. So Mint Mobile is offering premium wireless starting at just $15 a month. To get your new phone plan for just $15, go to mintmobile.com switch.