Up First from NPR: November 21, 2024

Hosts: Leila Fadel, Steve Inskeep, Michel Martin, and A Martinez
Episode Title: Baltic Cable Cut, Trump's NATO Ambassador, Republican Voter Turnout

1. Sabotage in the Baltic Sea: Undersea Cables Severed

The episode opens with alarming news from Northern Europe, where two critical undersea fiber optic cables were cut beneath the Baltic Sea. These cables are vital, carrying approximately 90% of the world's data traffic.

Investigation Details:

• Suspected Culprit: A Chinese cargo ship named Ipung 3 is under scrutiny. According to NPR's Berlin correspondent Rob Schmitz, the ship's movements coincide suspiciously with the cable disruptions.
• Incident Timeline:
  • At [03:06], Ipung 3 departed a Russian port and passed over a Swedish-Lithuanian cable. Shortly after, the cable failed.
  • On the following day, the same vessel crossed the Finland-Germany cable, resulting in another severance.

Expert Insights:

• Moritz Braka, a marine security expert, characterizes these deliberate actions as "an attack on the connectivity of our societies" ([03:44]). He emphasizes the global repercussions, stating, "Someone wants to show us we can disconnect you all, and we need to show in return that we are not going to let ourselves be bullied" ([04:29]).

Chinese Response:

• Ningbo Yipong Shipping, the company owning Ipung 3, has not commented. The Chinese Foreign Ministry insists that Chinese vessels adhere to international laws. Notably, a similar incident occurred a year prior when another Chinese ship accidentally damaged undersea infrastructure, which Beijing attributed to an "accident" ([05:05]).

Ongoing Investigation:

• [05:23] Swedish authorities, alongside investigators from involved nations, continue their probe. The presence of a Danish Navy patrol boat suggests heightened vigilance amid "heightened tensions in Europe" ([05:45]).

Geopolitical Context:

• The disruptions occur against a backdrop of escalating conflicts, including the U.S. evacuation of its embassy in Kyiv and increased Ukrainian offensives into Russia, authorized by President Joe Biden ([05:50]).

2. Trump's Nomination of Matthew Whitaker as NATO Ambassador

In a surprising move, President Elect Donald Trump has appointed Matthew Whitaker as the United States Ambassador to NATO, sparking discussions about the future of U.S.-NATO relations.

Profile of Matthew Whitaker:

• Background: Whitaker is primarily a lawyer with experience as a U.S. Attorney in Iowa and as Chief of Staff to former Attorney General Jeff Sessions. He lacks formal experience in foreign policy, national security, and diplomacy ([06:48]).
• Loyalty: Whitaker is known for his staunch loyalty to Trump, frequently criticizing Trump's legal challenges on platforms like Fox News.

Trump’s NATO Stance:

• President Elect Trump has been critical of NATO, often questioning the financial contributions of member countries. He has threatened to "leave the alliance" if members do not meet certain defense spending targets ([06:25]).

Expert Analysis:

• Michael O'Hanlon from the Brookings Institute suggests that Whitaker’s role will likely involve "pulling back America's role in European geopolitics", rather than withdrawing from NATO entirely ([08:05], [08:32]).
• Stephen Fowler notes the importance of presidential access, stating, "You can be a brilliant expert on European security, but if you have no access to the president or limited access even to the secretary of state, it's not going to do that much for you" ([09:04], [09:15]).

Implications for Ukraine:

• With Whitaker at the helm, there are concerns about the U.S.'s commitment to Ukraine. Trump has hinted at a desire for a "quick end to the war in Ukraine", which may not align with NATO’s strategies or Ukraine’s objectives ([08:44]).

Strategic Impact:

• Whitaker’s appointment could signal a more transactional approach to NATO relationships, emphasizing "America first" policies and potentially altering the dynamics of ongoing support in conflicts like the one in Ukraine ([09:15]).

3. Record Voter Turnout Boosts Republican Victory

Contrary to longstanding political theories, the recent presidential election saw a record high voter turnout that favored the Republicans, challenging the belief that increased participation typically benefits Democrats.

Election Highlights:

• The turnout rate is the third highest in 100 years, with Republicans securing control of the House, Senate, and the Presidency ([09:59]).

Shifting Paradigms:

• Traditionally, high turnout is associated with Democratic gains as it mobilizes low propensity voters who are often less educated and economically disadvantaged ([10:09]).
• However, Trump’s strategies have disrupted this pattern. Exit polls revealed strong Republican performances among non-college-educated voters and first-time voters ([10:23]).

Impact on GOP Strategies:

• The success despite high turnout may lead Republicans to reassess their stance on voter accessibility. Historically, the GOP has opposed measures that facilitate easier voting, citing concerns over election security ([11:09]).
• Experts like Michael O'Hanlon highlight that Trump's success may encourage the party to embrace voter participation, especially methods like early voting and mail-in ballots that have been pivotal in recent elections ([12:08]).

Internal Party Dynamics:

• There remains a divide within the Republican Party. While some factions are reconsidering their approach to voter access, the MAGA-right remains skeptical about expanding the electorate, often associating it with demographic shifts and political dilution ([13:12]).

Future Outlook:

• The GOP faces a strategic crossroads: maintain traditional voter suppression tactics or adapt to the changing electorate dynamics that have proven advantageous in recent elections ([12:55]).
• The evolving stance on voter turnout and accessibility could significantly influence future electoral strategies and policy formulations within the party.

Conclusion

This episode of Up First from NPR delves into pressing international security concerns with the potential sabotage of vital undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, the controversial appointment of a politically aligned yet inexperienced ambassador to NATO by President Elect Trump, and an unexpected electoral outcome where high voter turnout has surprisingly benefited the Republicans. These discussions underscore shifting geopolitical tensions and evolving political strategies that may reshape both international alliances and domestic political landscapes.

Notable Quotes:

• Moritz Braka: "Someone wants to show us we can disconnect you all, and we need to show in return that we are not going to let ourselves be bullied" ([04:29]).
• Stephen Fowler: "You can be a brilliant expert on European security, but if you have no access to the president or limited access even to the secretary of state, it's not going to do that much for you" ([09:04]).

Produced by: Zia Bach, Nia Dumas, Milton Guevara
Edited by: Miguel Macias, Megan Pratt, Ben Swayze, Mohamed Elbardisi, Alice Wolfley
Engineering Support: Robert Rodriguez
Technical Director: Zach Coleman

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