Up First: "Bet on Anything, Everywhere, All at Once"
Date: March 1, 2026
Host: Ayesha Rascoe
Guest: Bobby Allen (NPR Correspondent)
Episode Overview
This episode of Up First’s Sunday Story dives into the explosive rise of online prediction markets—apps where users wager on everything imaginable, from politics and weather to niche pop culture and global events. NPR correspondent Bobby Allen joins host Ayesha Rascoe to unpack how these markets work, why they’re booming, who wins and loses, regulatory gray zones, and what the future may hold.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. What Are Prediction Markets? (06:33–09:06)
- Origins: First appeared in academia during the 1988 U.S. presidential election to “put money where your mouth is,” and proved more accurate than polling.
- Business Boom: Former Goldman Sachs trader Tarek Mansour realized wealthy clients wanted to hedge political outcomes but had no direct way to do so. This inspired apps like Kalshi.
- Quote: “The long term vision is to financialize everything and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion.” —Tarek Mansour (08:20)
- Trend: Until recently, prediction markets remained niche and heavily regulated due to ethical concerns and the potential for manipulation.
2. How Do Prediction Market Apps Work? (01:53–05:02)
- Popular Platforms: Kalshi and Polymarket—where users can bet on sports, politics, entertainment, and even the duration of government shutdowns.
- User Experience: Apps connect easily to bank accounts, and the interface offers contracts on real-world outcomes (e.g., presidential election odds, popular phrases in speeches).
- Edge-of-Seat Action: Users can cash out or “hold their breath” during real-time events, as market odds shift with unfolding news.
- Quote: “...traders were placing money on whether he would or not say these things, and then they'd stream the event live and then it becomes this kind of like high stakes, edge of your seat, adrenaline propelled kind of situation...” —Bobby Allen (02:48)
- Insider Information: The temptation—and potential—of using inside info is ever-present, raising questions about fairness.
3. Who’s Using These Apps and Can You Really Win? (09:43–13:39)
- Who Bets?
- TikTokers and everyday new users drawn by stories of easy money.
- Wall Street veterans seeking a new edge.
- Younger, tech-savvy, “chronically online” men—some leveraging digital trading chops from games like Roblox.
- Sports gamblers in states restricting traditional betting.
- Winners vs. Losers:
- Most users lose money, similar to traditional gambling.
- The biggest winners are obsessive, full-time traders—mainly young men who treat it as a high-stakes craft.
- Quote: “I trade probably like 100 hours a week now... Sometimes, you know, trading for like all night and stuff. And so I'm a little tired sometimes.” —Logan Sudeth, full-time trader (12:20)
- Some users find a niche edge; many treat it as a side hustle.
4. The Insider Trading Problem (13:39–15:59)
- Real Cases:
- MrBeast’s video editor used unreleased content to bet—was caught and banned by Kalshi, not by government regulators.
- A high-profile bet on the Maduro operation in Venezuela—$32,000 staked, turning into $400,000—raised alarms about military insiders trading with classified info.
- Enforcement Gap: Platforms claim to police themselves. The hands-off approach raises ethical/red flag concerns.
- Quote: “We are just in... some really uncharted waters here... not just the ethical questions, but... this could put lives at danger.” —Bobby Allen (15:13)
5. Regulation, Legal Fights, and Political Winds (17:11–25:39)
- Regulatory Status:
- Regulated primarily by the CFTC (Commodities Future Trading Commission) as derivatives, not gambling, which dodges the stiff controls and taxes of gaming commissions.
- The Trump administration has championed deregulation, even staffing pro-industry leaders in oversight roles.
- Quote: “Trump has really cleared the lanes for these apps. I guess Trump winning was definitely beneficial for me...” —Logan Suttus, trader (19:40)
- The Trump family itself is directly involved: Donald Trump Jr. is now an advisor and investor.
- Legal Disputes:
- Over 20 pending lawsuits by both Democratic and Republican governors argue these apps are unregulated gambling, with concerns about underage addiction and lack of support resources.
- States argue for more authority; feds insist on exclusive jurisdiction, adding to the chaos.
- Quote: “It's not the state's authority to get into regulating our swaps markets... and I think it's going to take either an act of Congress or the Supreme Court taking a case...” —Michael Selig, CFTC Chair (25:09)
6. How Big Is the Market and What’s Next? (17:27–27:40)
- Massive Growth:
- In 2024, a federal court decision allowed broader market offerings—exploding from 15-20 markets to over 400,000 on Kalshi alone.
- Market odds now cited by mainstream news and entertainment (e.g., CNN, Golden Globes, Grammy jokes).
- Future Prospects:
- Prediction markets set to become even more popular and entrenched.
- If a future administration tries to crack down, “it’s going to be really hard to put this genie back in the bottle.”
- Quote: “If you can make money on the Golden Globes, you’re more likely to watch. So... that’s why there are all these partnerships.” —Bobby Allen (26:23)
- Industry seen as a new way to engage audiences in sports, politics, and news.
Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes
- “It sounds like a Black Mirror episode.” —Ayesha Roscoe (09:06)
- “The most common experience is losing money.” —Bobby Allen (11:13)
- “But look, there are other people I talk to all the time who have managed to make a few thousand here, a few thousand there, becoming like hyper-specialized in one area.” —Bobby Allen (13:07)
- “These are significant markets that we don’t have a role for the states in regulating.” —Michael Selig, CFTC (25:17)
- “If you had me saying ‘potato’ on Polymarket, you just made a ton of money. So congratulations, Noah_Underscore22, whoever that is.” —Trevor Noah, Grammy Awards (26:48)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 00:54 – 01:53: TikTok influencer bets on Super Bowl National Anthem
- 02:16 – 03:38: How Kalshi works and live event betting explained
- 06:33 – 09:43: History and emergence of prediction markets
- 09:54 – 13:39: Who bets, who profits, story of an obsessive trader
- 13:39 – 15:59: Insider trading cases and policing the markets
- 17:27 – 20:33: Legalization, court fight, regulatory shift post-2024
- 23:27 – 25:39: State AG lawsuits and regulation chaos
Conclusion
Prediction markets are no longer niche—they’re multiplying rapidly and reshaping how Americans interact with real-world events, from politics to pop culture. Most users lose money, but a new breed of hyper-engaged traders—along with some well-connected insiders—are capitalizing on everything from government announcements to entertainment shows. Legal and ethical frameworks are lagging behind, and with federal policy in flux, the genie may be out of the bottle for good. The episode paints a clear picture: whatever you want to bet on, there’s now an app for that.