China's Counter-Tariffs; CEOs Respond to Market Uncertainty; Trump's Deportations

Summary

Up First from NPR – April 12, 2025

Hosts: Scott Simon and Ayesha Rascoe
Episode: China's Counter-Tariffs; CEOs Respond to Market Uncertainty; Trump's Deportations

NPR's Up First delivered a comprehensive update on three critical issues impacting both the global economy and domestic policies in the United States: the escalating tariff war between the U.S. and China, the concerns of American CEOs amidst economic uncertainties, and the Trump administration's controversial deportation strategies. The episode, released on April 12, 2025, provided in-depth analysis, expert opinions, and real-world implications of these developments.

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1. Escalation of the U.S.-China Tariff War

Timeline of Tariffs:
The episode opened with a detailed account of the tit-for-tat tariff measures between the United States and China. Beginning on Liberation Day, President Trump imposed a series of tariffs targeting Chinese exports:

• Initial Tariffs: A 34% levy on Chinese imports prompted Beijing to reciprocate with an identical 34% tariff on U.S. goods (00:21).
• Escalation: Trump responded by increasing his tariffs by 50%, leading China to match this increase, and the cycle continued rapidly.
• Current Rates: By the end of the week, tariffs on Chinese imports into the U.S. had surged to 145%, while U.S. products entering China faced a 125% tariff (02:56).

Expert Insight:
John Ruich from NPR, reporting from Beijing, provided context on the aggressive tariff escalation:

"It was a dizzying upward spiral, and these are crippling numbers." (02:13)

China’s Stance:
China signaled a potential shift by capping their tariffs at 125%, effectively halting further tit-for-tat increases. Ruich explained:

"Beijing did something kind of interesting on Friday... they said they were done playing the tit for tat game." (02:59)

This move was interpreted as both a restraint and a firm warning against further unilateral tariff escalations by the U.S. However, Beijing officials remained resolute in protecting their national interests:

"China's not gonna roll over. Officials in Beijing said they will continue to protect their rights and interests." (03:48)

Implications for Trade:
Ruich highlighted the uncertainty surrounding future trade relations:

"It's hard to imagine the world's top two economies not doing trade with each other... Perhaps it'll take some economic pain from these terrorists before either side decides they want to get together and have these conversations." (04:43)

Real-World Impact:
The local perspective from Yiwu, a major trading hub, illustrated the immediate effects on businesses waiting on international orders:

"She's saying that she had an order from February which she previously told us was for Target. The deposit still hasn't been paid on that. Everybody's just waiting to see what happens." (04:01)

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2. CEOs React to Economic Uncertainty

The episode delved into how the escalating tariff war and volatile markets are causing anxiety among America's top CEOs, impacting business strategies and consumer behavior.

Market Turmoil:
Maria Aspen, NPR's business correspondent, described the turbulent week:

"It was a pretty turbulent week as everyone tried to figure out what's going to happen with President Trump's tariffs." (05:47)

Corporate Responses:
CEOs were forced to address the uncertainties during earnings calls, often citing unprecedented unpredictability. For instance, Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf remarked on the volatility:

"It is a volatile time... It is a time of unknowns." (06:36)

Consumer Behavior:
The uncertainty is translating into cautious consumer spending. Aspen noted:

"We'll probably just buy less stuff. And that has a direct impact on consumer-facing businesses." (06:55)

Case Study – Delta Airlines:
Delta Airlines serves as a prime example of rapid shifts in corporate forecasts:

"Delta canceled that forecast... 'We're in uncharted, unprecedented uncertainty...'" (07:32)

Broader Economic Ripple Effects:
Aspen elaborated on the cascading effects of business hesitancy:

"If big companies and private investors get worried about the future, they're going to take fewer risks. They'll cut back on investing with startups or lending to small businesses." (07:54)

These strategic pullbacks can lead to significant long-term consequences for the U.S. economy, including reduced innovation, slower growth, and diminished consumer options.

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3. Trump Administration's Deportation Policies Under Scrutiny

The episode tackled the Trump administration's controversial deportation strategies, particularly focusing on cases involving individuals who are legally present in the U.S.

Case Highlight – Mahmoud Khalil:
Mahmoud Khalil, a pro-Palestinian activist and Columbia University graduate student, became a focal point:

"Secretary of State Marco Rubio... determined that Khalil's protests were anti-Semitic and that his presence in the U.S. undermines the nation's foreign policy goals." (09:25)

Legal Framework:
The administration invoked a rarely used 1950s-era law allowing the Secretary of State to deport individuals deemed threats to U.S. foreign policy:

"As long as Rubio makes the determination himself, she cannot question it." (10:26)

Defense and Rights Concerns:
Khalil's legal team vehemently opposed the deportation, arguing violations of due process and freedom of speech:

"The accusation was absurd... they questioned what facts rule Rubio relied on to decide that his protests were anti-Semitic." (10:26)

Potential Slippery Slope:
Legal experts and Khalil’s lawyers warned about the broader implications:

"If left unchecked, could become very dangerous... Next, it could be LGBTQI activists under some pretext... Racial justice activists, anyone." (10:44)

Supreme Court Ruling – Kilmar Abrego Garcia:
The episode briefly discussed a Supreme Court case involving Kilmar Abrego Garcia, who was mistakenly deported to a Salvadoran prison, raising questions about executive overreach:

"What is to stop it from rounding up other people who had legal authorization to be in the US and expelling them without due process?" (11:56)

Ongoing Legal Battle:
Khalil remains in detention as his legal team prepares to escalate the case through the federal court system to prevent his deportation:

"He's still in detention, though, as his lawyers figure out their next steps." (12:12)

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Conclusion

The April 12, 2025 episode of Up First provided listeners with a thorough analysis of significant geopolitical and domestic issues. The intensifying U.S.-China tariff war presents profound challenges for global trade and economic stability. Simultaneously, American CEOs are grappling with unprecedented market uncertainties, influencing both business strategies and consumer behavior. Lastly, the Trump administration's aggressive deportation policies raise urgent legal and human rights concerns, highlighting potential threats to civil liberties.

As these multifaceted issues continue to evolve, NPR's Up First remains an essential source for understanding the complex dynamics shaping the current socio-economic and political landscape.

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Notable Quotes:

• John Ruich (Beijing) [02:13]: "It was a dizzying upward spiral, and these are crippling numbers."
• John Ruich (Beijing) [03:48]: "China's not gonna roll over. Officials in Beijing said they will continue to protect their rights and interests."
• Charlie Scharf (Wells Fargo CEO) [06:36]: "It is a volatile time... It is a time of unknowns."
• Maria Aspen [07:54]: "They'll cut back on investing with startups or lending to small businesses."
• Adrian Florido (NPR) [10:44]: "If left unchecked, could become very dangerous... Racial justice activists, anyone."

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This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the episode, providing a clear and structured overview for those who haven't listened. By highlighting expert opinions, real-world implications, and notable quotes with timestamps, it ensures a comprehensive understanding of the topics covered.

Transcript

[Ayesha Rascoe]

China's response to President Trump's massive tax on their exports, a tariff of 125% on US goods.

[Scott Simon]

China's countermeasures go into effect today. I'm Scott Simon.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

I'm Ayesha Rascoe. And this is up first from NPR News.

[Scott Simon]

A raging tariff war between the US And a key trading partner, China, is escalating.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

We'll give you the view from China.

[Scott Simon]

Also, if you're feeling a little anxious about the economy, you've got something in common with some of America's most powerful CEOs who tell you what's making them nervous.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

Plus, a look at the Trump administration's efforts to deport foreign nationals who are in the US Legally.

[Scott Simon]

So please stay with us. We have the news you need to start your weekend.

[Unknown]

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[Scott Simon]

The world's two largest economies are in a pitched trade battle.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

The US And China have ratcheted up their tariffs on each other's exports into dizzying triple digits.

[Scott Simon]

NPR's John Ruich joins us from Beijing. John, thanks for being with us.

[John Ruich]

Happy to be here.

[Scott Simon]

How did things get to this point?

[John Ruich]

Well, it started with those reciprocal tariffs on Liberation Day. Trump imposed tariffs on countries from around the world, of course, and China hit with a 34% levy. Beijing was less than pleased about it. So two days later, China matched that with a tit for tat 34% tariff on U.S. imports. Trump didn't like that. He added 50% on top of it. China responded with 50%. Trump added more. China responded. So by the end of the week, the base tariff on Chinese imports into the United States was 145% and, and U.S. products entering China now get hit with a 125% tariff. It was a dizzying upward spiral, and these are crippling numbers.

[Scott Simon]

And a lot of people are certainly wondering, any end in sight?

[John Ruich]

Yeah, there's no end in sight to the acrimony at the moment. But Beijing did something kind of interesting on Friday when they increased tariffs that last time to 125%. They said they were done playing the tit for tat game. So with tariffs at that rate, they said US Products are no longer competitive in China. And if Trump continues to raise tariffs on Chinese goods, it would be a, quote, joke, and China just wouldn't match them. Now, China's not gonna roll over. Officials in Beijing said they will continue to protect their rights and interests. So perhaps it's a dual signal, you know, restraint on one hand on the tariffs, but also kind of a don't mess with us signal. Experts do say there does come a point, you know, when raising tariffs further just doesn't do anything. And these tariffs are already sky high. Victor Gao is with the Beijing based think tank, the center for China and Globalization.

[Scott Simon]

In my best judgment, it means China US Trade will grind to a complete.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

Halt, meaning there will be no more.

[Scott Simon]

Trading between China and the United States. John, is that what you hear from companies and exporters, too?

[John Ruich]

Well, there's a lot of confusion and caution now. Things have been moving at such a high speed. A few weeks ago, your colleague, Morning Edition host Steve Inskeep was here. He went to a city called Yiwu, which is famous for trading, and talked to a woman there named Nicole Jang who sells hairpins and claw clips for the hair. We caught up with her. So she's saying that she had an order from February which she previously told us was for Target. The deposit still hasn't been paid on that. Everybody's just waiting to see what happens. She's putting on a brave face, though. She thinks this whole thing is gonna be temporary.

[Scott Simon]

Will it be? I mean, do we know where we go from here?

[John Ruich]

We don't. It's hard to imagine the world's top two economies not doing trade with each other. Trump says he's willing to talk and that China wants to do a deal but hasn't called him. China says it's open to talks, but they have to be conducted on the basis of mutual respect. And so it's unclear where things go from here. It doesn't seem like conditions are right for talks or a breakthrough. Maybe it'll take some economic pain from these terrorists before either side decides they want to get together and have these conversations.

[Scott Simon]

And Piers, John Rowich in Beijing, thanks so much, John.

[John Ruich]

You're welcome, Scott.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

President Trump's sky high tariffs on Chinese imports are making many Americans nervous.

[Scott Simon]

Might have noticed some people stocking up on things, fearing price hikes are just around the corner.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

Or maybe like the CEOs of top American companies, you've been watching the convulsing stock market, wondering when things will settle.

[Scott Simon]

NPR business correspondent Maria Aspen joins us now. Maria, thanks for being with us.

[Maria Aspen]

Good morning.

[Scott Simon]

Please catch us up.

[Maria Aspen]

Well, it was, as you noted, a pretty turbulent week as everyone tried to figure out what's going to happen with President Trump's tariffs. By Wednesday, the stock and bond markets were freaking out, to use the technical term. And then Trump abruptly backed down on some of his steepest tariffs, announcing a 90 day pause. But he did continue escalating a trade war with China. And even with the pause on some tariffs, investors and businesses soon realized that they still have to face new taxes of 10% on almost everything they import. So as all of this was happening, CEOs of the country's biggest companies had to go out and talk about all of it in public on their previously scheduled earnings calls with analysts. Here's one example of how that went from Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf yesterday.

[Scott Simon]

It is a volatile time.

[Adrian Florido]

It is a time of unknowns.

[Scott Simon]

Again, we're trying to be as clear as we can about what we think today.

[Maria Aspen]

So to quote the late Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, businesses are facing a lot.

[Scott Simon]

Of unknown unknowns, as is everyone right now. How does this ripple through the business world?

[Maria Aspen]

Well, first of all, we'll probably just buy less stuff. And that has a direct impact on consumer facing businesses. Take airplane tickets, for example. Scott, if you or I get worried about a recession, we might decide not to buy tickets or to not take that summer vacation. And in fact, that seems to be what's happening. Delta Airlines, for example, it had a great start to 2025 in January. It told investors that this would be its best financial year ever. But by Wednesday, Delta canceled that forecast. And this is what CEO Ed Bastian told cnbc.

[Scott Simon]

We're in uncharted, unprecedented uncertainty when you look at what's happened and the pivot so quickly to this self inflicted situation.

[Maria Aspen]

Now, Bastian said some of that uncertainty is affecting consumers, but Delta also sells a lot of tickets to business travelers. And when businesses don't know what to expect, they also tend to pull back on spending.

[Scott Simon]

And those business spending decisions affect us all, don't they?

[Maria Aspen]

Yeah, in a lot of ways. I mean, some are obvious when businesses don't want to spend money, they don't hire, they don't open new offices, maybe they have layoffs. And of course that's a big deal. But there are also these more hidden decisions that still trickle down to consumers. For example, if big companies and private investors get worried about the future, they're going to take fewer risks. They'll cut back on investing with startups or lending to small businesses. And if those startups and small businesses can't get money, they can't grow and produce new products and services we all might use. So these are the sorts of business decisions that can affect consumers and the entire US Economy months or years down the line, which means that all of this vague uncertainty can lead to a lot of potential long term consequences.

[Scott Simon]

And there's Mary Aspen, thanks so much for being with us.

[Maria Aspen]

Thank you so much.

[Scott Simon]

The Trump administration's move to deport immigrants who are in this country legally is getting a lot of legal pushback.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

This week, the case of Mahmoud Khalil came into focus in a Louisiana in a courtroom, the pro Palestinian activist and Columbia University graduate student is being accused of anti Semitism.

[Scott Simon]

This is not the only high profile case getting attention this week. NPR's Adrian Florido joins us. Adrian, thanks for being with us.

[Adrian Florido]

Thank you, Scott.

[Scott Simon]

What did the judge say?

[Adrian Florido]

Well, she said that the secretary of State Marco Rubio had the authority to order someone deported based on his determination that that person is a threat to essentially the foreign policy interests of the United States and that she had no authority to challenge that decision. This is based on a rarely used law enacted during the 1950s Red Scare that allows the secretary of state to order someone personally deported if that person's presence in the US Puts the nation's foreign policy goals at risk. The Trump administration has said that fighting anti Semitism around the world is one of its goals. So when agents from the Department of Homeland Security came to Rubio with a file on Mahmoud Khalil's activism, Rubio said he determined that his protests were anti Semitic. And he said if he allowed Khalil to stay in the country, it would send a message that the US Tolerates anti Semitism, which would then undermine its attempt to fight it everywhere else in the world. And that is why he said Khalil had to be deported.

[Scott Simon]

And what did Mahmoud Khalil's lawyers say?

[Adrian Florido]

Well, that accusation was absurd. In court. They said that Khalil is not anti semitic and they questioned what facts rules Rubio relied on to decide that his protests were anti Semitic. But the judge said that the statute is very clear. As long as Rubio makes the determination himself, she cannot question it.

[Scott Simon]

What about Khalil's rights to due process and freedom of speech?

[Adrian Florido]

Well, those are some of the big questions in this case. The only thing the secretary of state has to do to kick someone out of the country is to determine that their presence harmed US Foreign policy in some undefined way. This is one of Khalil's lawyers. Baher asked me after the ruling yesterday, there's no stopping at Mahmoud Khalil. There's no stopping at just pro Palestinian protesters. Next, it could be LGBTQI activists under some pretext that that interferes with our foreign relations with Russia. Racial justice activists, anyone? He said it's a very aggressive strategy that if left unchecked, could become very dangerous. And that's why he and the rest of the legal team from Mahmoud Khalil are fighting. So to appeal this decision if they have to, they're going to go all the way up to the federal court system, through the federal court system, excuse me, to prevent Khalil's deportation for now. He's still in detention, though, as his lawyers figure out their next steps.

[Scott Simon]

And briefly, Adrian, the Supreme Court ruled on the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, Miss. Who was mistakenly deported to a Salvadoran prison. How does this fit into the question of executive power?

[Adrian Florido]

Well, legal experts are asking if the government is allowed to get away with something like this, what is to stop it from rounding up other people who, like Abrego Garcia, had legal authorization to be in the US and expelling them without due process? It's why his lawyers are trying so hard to force the government to bring Abrego back.

[Scott Simon]

NPR's Adrian Florido, thanks so much.

[Adrian Florido]

Thank you, Scott.

[Scott Simon]

And that's up first for Saturday, April 12th, 2025. I'm Scott Simon.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

And I'm Ayesha Rascoe.

[Scott Simon]

Martin Patience produced this podcast with help from Fernando Naro Roman and Jordan Marie Smith.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

Dee Parvaz edited along with Melissa Gray, Rafael Nam Vincent Nee Miguel Macias and Martha Ann Overland.

[Scott Simon]

Andrew Craig is our director, with expert support from technical director Andy Huether and engineers Jay Siz, Zach Coleman and David Greenberg.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

Our senior supervising editor is Shannon Rhodes. Evie Stone is our executive producer, and Jim Cain is our deputy managing editor.

[Scott Simon]

Tomorrow on the Sunday, the First Amendment is a cornerstone of U.S. democracy. NPR's Morning Edition Co host Leila Fadel will share what she's hearing from some who feel the right to free speech is changing under the Trump administration.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

And for more news, interviews, sports and music, you can tune into WEEKEND EDITION on your radio. Go to stations.NPR.org to find your local NPR station.

[Scott Simon]

Please don't waste a minute. Do it now, right now.

[Unknown]

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