Economic Worries, Redistricting Battles, Reconsidering BMI

Summary

Up First from NPR – August 2, 2025

Hosts: Leila Fadel, Steve Inskeep, Michel Martin, A Martinez, Ayesha Rascoe, Scott Simon
Episode Title: Economic Worries, Redistricting Battles, Reconsidering BMI

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1. Economic Worries: Weaker Job Growth and Tariff Impacts

Overview:
The episode opens with alarming news from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicating that employers added fewer jobs than expected in July. Further analysis of May and June data reveals a more concerning economic downturn. This slowdown coincides with President Trump's aggressive tariff strategies, which have begun to impact the economy adversely.

Key Points:

• Job Market Decline:
  The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a disappointing rise in job additions for July. Additionally, revisions to May and June figures have eroded previously optimistic job growth estimates.
  "Employers added a lot fewer jobs than expected in July, and job gains for May and June... were all but erased when the regular monthly revisions came in." — Scott Horsley (04:03)

• Economic Growth Slows:
  Despite the economy still growing, the rate has decelerated to levels similar to the past two years. Private sector demand has decreased, leading employers to reduce hiring needs.
  "Private sector demand has downshifted, and... employers just don't need as many workers." — Scott Horsley (04:03)

• Impact of Tariffs:
  President Trump's imposition of increased tariffs aims to boost government revenue but has not achieved the desired outcome of enhancing domestic manufacturing. Instead, tariffs have led to higher consumer prices and reduced factory orders.
  "Tariffs are bringing in close to $30 billion a month... but tariffs don't seem to be meeting... boosting domestic manufacturing." — Scott Horsley (04:43)

• Inflation Concerns:
  Consumer prices rose by 2.6% in June, exceeding expectations and complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to manage interest rates amid a weakening job market.
  "Inflation's moving in the wrong direction and that makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates." — Scott Horsley (05:28)

• Presidential Criticism:
  President Trump has publicly criticized the Bureau of Labor Statistics, alleging that job numbers are manipulated to portray his administration negatively. Economists warn that such rhetoric undermines trust in governmental institutions.
  "It's not the first time Trump has attacked the government's numbers... like a banana republic, not the United States of America." — Scott Horsley (05:57)

Notable Quotes:

• "President Trump says the job numbers are, quote, rigged and accuses the Bureau of labor statistics of bias." — Ayesha Rascoe (05:45)

• "The only silver lining... business owners may finally get some degree of certainty." — Tom Darry on the impact of tariffs (05:19)

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2. Redistricting Battles: Political Maneuvering in California and Ohio

Overview:
President Trump is urging Texas lawmakers to redraw congressional maps to secure an additional five Republican seats. This move has triggered a chain reaction, with Democratic leaders in states like California, Illinois, and New York contemplating their own redistricting efforts to counterbalance Republican gains.

Key Points:

• Texas Redistricting Initiative:
  President Trump advocates for redrawing Texas's congressional maps to ensure five additional Republican seats, intensifying the ongoing partisan struggle over electoral boundaries.

• California's Response:
  Governor Gavin Newsom proposes redrawing California's House maps to benefit Democrats, describing the situation as a "break the glass moment." Political analysts suggest that if successful, Democrats could gain approximately five seats.
  "Newsom has floated a plan to redraw California's House maps... Democrats could pick up about five seats with the redraw." — Guy Marzirati (07:28)

• Challenges in California:
  Unlike Texas, California's redistricting is managed by an independent commission established by voters in 2010. Governor Newsom faces the challenge of obtaining voter approval to alter this process, making the initiative more complex and time-sensitive.
  "The timeline for all this is pretty tight... into the 2026 campaign." — Guy Marzirati (08:53)

• Ohio's Position:
  Ohio, a state that heavily supported Trump in 2024, is under pressure to redraw its congressional districts. Currently holding 10 Republican and five Democratic seats, Ohio faces potential gains for Republicans. However, experts like Jen Miller from the League of Women Voters express concerns that the focus on redistricting could overshadow voters' best interests.
  "Worried the focus is on the 2026 midterms, not what most benefits voters." — Jen Miller (10:26)

• Political Implications:
  The redistricting battles highlight a nationwide trend of increasing partisanship, where both parties seek to manipulate electoral boundaries to secure legislative advantages. This trend tests the integrity of independent commissions and the overall fairness of the electoral system.
  "Will voters here scrap a redistricting commission that they see as fair just to give Democrats a partisan edge?" — Guy Marzirati (11:13)

Notable Quotes:

• "California is essentially bringing a rubber band to a gunfight." — Sarah Sadhwani on California's redistricting (08:33)

• "Rep. Marcy Captor... won by just a percentage point." — Sarah Donaldson on Ohio's congressional races (09:13)

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3. Reconsidering BMI: New Research Challenges Traditional Health Metrics

Overview:
The podcast delves into the ongoing debate over the efficacy of Body Mass Index (BMI) as a reliable indicator of health. Recent studies suggest that measuring body fat percentage may provide a more accurate assessment of an individual's health risks.

Key Points:

• Limitations of BMI:
  BMI calculates weight relative to height but fails to account for muscle mass and fat distribution. This can misclassify muscular individuals as overweight and overlook individuals with healthy weights but high visceral fat.
  "BMI can actually misinform people... can’t Distinguish if someone is in a normal range, but does have excess body fat." — Will Stone (12:25)

• New Research Findings:
  A study conducted by the University of Florida, published in the Annals of Family Medicine, analyzed over 4,000 adults aged 20-49. It found that body fat percentage is a better predictor of mortality than BMI, with higher body fat percentages correlating with increased death risk.
  "People in the higher body fat group had a 78% increased risk of dying." — Will Stone (13:57)

• Clinical Implications:
  While BMI remains ingrained in the healthcare system due to its simplicity and low cost, medical professionals are advocating for more nuanced measurements like bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) to assess body composition more accurately.
  "The American Medical Association... doctors should not only rely on BMI when evaluating patients." — Will Stone (15:07)

• Debate in the Medical Community:
  Experts agree that while BMI is useful for large-scale population studies, individualized patient assessments benefit from more precise measurements. However, transitioning from BMI to alternative metrics poses challenges due to existing healthcare protocols and the need for consensus on new standards.
  "BMI still has utility in large populations... in the clinical setting we need something better." — Guy Marzirati (15:36)

• Future Directions:
  Ongoing research and technological advancements in body composition analysis may eventually lead to a shift away from BMI toward more accurate health indicators. This change would enhance patient care by providing better risk assessments for chronic diseases.
  "It's critical to fine tune how they measure this so they can accurately advise patients about their risk." — Will Stone (15:55)

Notable Quotes:

• "Our life may suddenly not be our own." — Sarah Donaldson on AI and technology (02:00)
  (Note: This quote appears to be out of context in the provided transcript and may pertain to a different segment not directly related to BMI.)

• "People who have increased body fat... have 262% increased risk of dying in the next 15 years." — Will Stone on cardiovascular risks (14:27)

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Conclusion

The August 2, 2025, episode of Up First from NPR offers a comprehensive look into pressing economic concerns, the contentious battle over redistricting in key states, and emerging insights challenging long-held health metrics like BMI. Through insightful discussions and expert commentary, the episode underscores the complexities and interconnections of economic policies, political strategies, and health evaluations shaping contemporary society.

Notable Contributions:

• Scott Horsley: Chief Economics Correspondent, provided in-depth analysis on job market trends and the implications of tariff policies.

• Guy Marzirati (KQED) & Sarah Donaldson (Ohio State House News Bureau): Reporters on the ground offering perspectives on the redistricting battles in California and Ohio.

• Will Stone: Health Correspondent, elucidated the evolving discourse surrounding BMI and alternative health assessment tools.

Timestamps for Key Quotes:

• Economic Worries: Scott Horsley (04:03, 05:28)

• Redistricting Battles: Guy Marzirati (07:28, 08:53, 11:13) & Sarah Donaldson (09:13, 10:26)

• Reconsidering BMI: Will Stone (12:25, 13:57, 15:07, 15:55) & Guy Marzirati (15:36)

---

Stay Informed:
For listeners interested in delving deeper into these topics, subscribe to Up First from NPR and support your local NPR station at donate.npr.org.

Transcript

[Ayesha Rascoe]

This week I have a voice. You know, last week I didn't have a voice. It was bad.

[Scott Simon]

I think you still had a wonderful voice. It was just showing the strain of delivering the news to America.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

Exactly.

[Scott Simon]

Don't blame the messenger. The west credits ancient Greece for that lesson. Plutarch writing around the year 100 Sophocles five centuries before that.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

Well, everything old is new again. Hi, I'm Ayesha Rascoe.

[Scott Simon]

And I'm Scott Simon with Up first from NPR News.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics says employers added fewer jobs than expected last month. And after looking closer at May and June, there's more bad news.

[Scott Simon]

So President Trump wants that agency's head on the chopping block.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

Also, is BMI body mass index the best way to know if you're overweight?

[Scott Simon]

We have new information and more State houses weaponized redistricting. We take a look.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

So stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your weekend.

[Will Stone]

This message comes from Carvana. Explore Carvana's quick and easy financing and browse thousands of car options, all within your budget and timeline. Get pre qualified [e-mail] for financing subject to credit approval. Additional terms and conditions may apply. This summer on Planet Money Summer school, we're learning about political economy. We're getting into the nitty gritty of what government does with things like trade, taxes, immigration and healthcare. So politics and economics, which are taught.

[Scott Simon]

Separately, they shouldn't be separated at all.

[Will Stone]

I think you have to understand one to really appreciate the other.

[Scott Horsley]

So what is the right amount of.

[Will Stone]

Government in our lives? Tune in to Planet Money Summer School from npr, wherever you get your podcasts.

[Sarah Donaldson]

As AI permeates every aspect of our lives. Who are the people behind this huge inflection point? What keeps them up at night? I fear that what it means to.

[Scott Simon]

Be human may suddenly not be our own.

[Sarah Donaldson]

We've got a special series from NPR's TED Radio Hour. It's called the Profits of Technology, what.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

They Got Right Wrong and where these.

[Sarah Donaldson]

Pioneers think we're headed next. Listen to the TED Radio Hour wherever.

[Scott Simon]

You get Your podcasts this week featured some not so good news for the US on the economic front, official data.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

Showed fewer jobs, higher prices and slower economic growth as President Trump's tariff strategy takes effect. Even the stock market, which had been discounting worries about the president's policies, took a tumble, with the S&P 500 showing its worst week since Trump's April announcement of sweeping tariffs.

[Scott Simon]

President Trump says the job numbers are, quote, rigged and accuses the Bureau of labor statistics of bias. NPR chief economics correspondent Scott Horsley joins us. Scott, thanks for being with us.

[Scott Horsley]

Good morning.

[Scott Simon]

Let's begin with that jobs report yesterday, kind of a gut punch. What does it say?

[Scott Horsley]

It says the labor market is not as strong as many people thought. Employers added a lot fewer jobs than expected in July, and job gains for May and June, which had looked pretty healthy, were all but erased when the regular monthly revisions came in. Now it is important to note that the US Workforce is not growing as fast as it was a few years ago. Immigration's pretty much dried up, and with a lot of baby boomers retiring, we don't need to add as many jobs as we once did to keep pace with the population. But even with that low bar, hiring fell short in these last three months, so the unemployment rate inched up to 4.2%.

[Scott Simon]

Scott, why would job growth be so weak?

[Scott Horsley]

Well, it's matching a slowdown in the wider economy. We got new GDP numbers this week which showed the economy is still growing, but only about as fast as it did in the two previous years. If you strip out some of the noise around imports and government spending, private sector demand has downshifted, and economist Jed Kolko, who's with the Peterson Institute for International Economics, says that means employers just don't need as many workers.

[Guy Marzirati]

It looks like overall demand in the economy is weakening, and that's consistent with a slowdown in payrolls that we now see more clearly is happening.

[Scott Horsley]

Kolko also suggests that industries that rely on a lot of immigrant labor, like construction and restaurants and home health care, may be having trouble finding the workers they would like to hire. The share of immigrants who are in the workforce has dropped over the last year, and it seems likely that increased immigration enforcement has driven some people underground.

[Scott Simon]

President Trump also announced plans this week for increased tariffs on imports from many countries. What kind of effect does that have on the economy?

[Scott Horsley]

Tariffs are achieving one of the president's goals, which is raising a lot of money for the government. Tariffs are bringing in close to $30 billion a month right now, and that could go higher if these increased taxes take effect. But so far, tariffs don't seem to be meeting another of the president's goals, which is boosting domestic manufacturing. Factory orders are in a slump. Factories cut jobs last month for the third month in a row. Tom Darry heads the Institute for Supply Management, which conducts a monthly survey of factory manager. He says the only silver lining of this new round of tariffs is that business owners may finally get some degree of certainty.

[Will Stone]

Most of US in the business world.

[Scott Simon]

Believe a zero tariff is preferred, but you know, that's not what we're living with.

[Will Stone]

If it becomes more stable, we can.

[Scott Simon]

React and deal with it.

[Scott Horsley]

Meanwhile, Trump's tariffs are pushing up prices, especially on things like toys and appliances. The Commerce Department said this week consumer prices were up 2.6% in June from a year ago, which was a bigger increase than the previous month. So inflation's moving in the wrong direction and that makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, even if that might help to prop up the sagging job market.

[Scott Simon]

And of course, the president called for the head numbers cruncher, the government to be fired. What does that do to the markets?

[Scott Horsley]

Yeah, the president suggested with zero evidence that the jobs number had been rigged to make him look bad. It's not the first time Trump has attacked the government's numbers. He loves to tout them when they're favorable and when they're not, he tries to deflect the blame. Economists across the political spectrum sounded the alarm about this move to fire top statistician at the Labor Department, saying it's the kind of thing you'd expect to see in a banana republic, not the United States of America.

[Scott Simon]

Scott Horsley, thanks so much.

[Scott Horsley]

You're welcome.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

President Trump is urging Austin lawmakers to redraw Texas congressional maps to guarantee Republicans five more seats in Congress.

[Scott Simon]

And there are more Republican led states thinking along the same lines. So now some Democratic governors of California, Illinois and New York say they might respond by redistricting. More wins for Democrats.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

We have two reporters in states now swept up in this fight. KQED's Guy Marzirati. Guy, welcome.

[Guy Marzirati]

Great to be with you.

[Scott Simon]

And Sarah Donaldson of the Ohio State House News Bureau, thank you for being with us.

[Sarah Donaldson]

Hey, good to be here.

[Scott Simon]

And Guy, let me ask you first in California, how's Governor Newsom weighed in on this potential battle between California and Texas?

[Guy Marzirati]

He certainly seems to want to go toe to toe with Texas on this. Newsom has floated a plan to redraw California's House maps, really? With the purpose of helping Democrats because of what he's described as this break the glass moment.

[Scott Simon]

Everything is at stake if we're not successful next year in taking back the House of Representatives.

[Guy Marzirati]

And political analysts I've talked to in California say Democrats could pick up about five seats with the redraw. But there are two caveats here, Scott, I think I should mention. One is that Newsom has said he'll halt his plan if Texas does not move ahead with their own redistricting. And the second is that this whole line drawing process is going to be tougher and perhaps more complicated in California than it would be in Texas.

[Scott Simon]

What makes it more complicated in California?

[Guy Marzirati]

Really, just the fact that our political lines in California are drawn by this independent commission. And that commission was created by the voters back in 2010. So unlike in Texas, Newsom will have to go back to the voters to get permission to move ahead with this kind of gerrymander. And I talked to a former member of California's redistricting commission about this. Her name's Sarah Sadhwani. She's a politics professor at Pomona College. And she really defended the independent commission's record, even as I think she understands where Newsom is coming from with this.

[Sarah Donaldson]

We haven't had a single lawsuit brought against our maps. We have some of the most competitive districts in the nation. On balance, those should be good things. But when not all states are playing by the same set of rules, California is essentially bringing a rubber band to a gunfight.

[Guy Marzirati]

And I'll add that the timeline for all this is pretty tight. If there was a special election in the fall for these new maps and they were approved, you'd then have a really quick turnaround right into the 2026 campaign.

[Scott Simon]

Sarah, you of course, live in a state that voted heavily for President Trump in 2024. How does it figure into this growing redistricting fight?

[Sarah Donaldson]

Yeah, it's kind of a unique scenario here. Ohio always had to redistrict mid decade because of this 2018 law that says if Republican and Democratic state lawmakers couldn't come to consensus on the maps, they'd have to go back to the drawing board. And in 2021, they couldn't. So heading into this fall, there was a chance that map making could have just been status quo. But it's hard to say whether that's changed under this current climate. I am hearing a lot about national pressure draw districts that are more friendly to Republicans.

[Scott Simon]

We know that that President Trump has said in Texas his goal would be five more Republican seats. What would the numbers look like in Ohio right now?

[Sarah Donaldson]

Ohio has 10 Republicans and five Democrats, but Democrats won two of those five races pretty narrowly in 2024. So Representative Marcy Captor, she's the longest serving woman in Congress and won by just a percentage point. But there's talk about desire for a 132 breakdown. That would be a gain of three Republican seats. Analysts on the ground say that could be a heavy lift, though. I talked with Jen Miller with the League of Women Voters of Ohio. She told me she's worried the focus is on the 2026 midterms, not what most benefits voters.

[Scott Horsley]

It should go the other way around.

[Scott Simon]

We should be looking at what communities constitute a district.

[Sarah Donaldson]

I should note Miller and others have been part of past efforts in Ohio to create an independent redistricting commission like California's. Ohio voters handily rejected that on the ballot in 20.

[Scott Simon]

You're both political reporters, so please tell us what what strikes you in this moment about the political position of your state?

[Sarah Donaldson]

SARAH yeah, you know, we're talking about these districts that are going to be drawn with while it's recent data, it's historical data technically, and that's to predict future voter demographics. But demographics shift, too. So Ohio is under a 10 Republican, 5 Democratic map right now. But some of that is because there were close races.

[Guy Marzirati]

And I'll just add, you know, I think this comes at a time when Democrats really, like across the country are increasingly asking their elected leaders to be more confrontational, to fight, even at the expense of compromise, even at the expense of norms. And I think this redistricting fight in California, you know, the country's largest Democratic state, it's a great test case. You know, will voters here scrap a redistricting commission that they see as fair just to give Democrats a partisan edge?

[Scott Simon]

Guy Marziroti with KQED San Francisco. Sarah Donaldson with the Ohio State House News Bureau in Columbus. Thank you both very much.

[Guy Marzirati]

Thanks so much.

[Sarah Donaldson]

Thank you.

[Scott Simon]

You, me, children. We've all heard of bmi body mass index. Your height combined with your weight distilled into the go to way to determine if a person is overweight.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

But for years, doctors have been wrestling with how much to rely on bmi, and now there's new research. Add more color to the picture. NPR health correspondent Will Stone joins us now. Hi, Will.

[Will Stone]

Hey, good to be here.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

So first, what's behind the debate over bmi?

[Will Stone]

The problem here is really that BMI lacks nuance. It's basically an indirect measure of whether you have excess body fat. And there are certain agreed upon cutoffs. A BMI of 25 to 29 is overweight, and obesity is defined as more than 30. And just for context here, 70 plus percent of the US population falls into one of those two categories. But BMI can actually misinform people. For example, you may be classified as overweight, but that could be due to muscle mass. This is especially true for athletes, people who lift weights. And on the other hand, BMI also can't Distinguish if someone is in a normal range, meaning under 25, but does have excess body fat, especially high amounts around the belly, this visceral fat is particularly bad for health. So ultimately, all of this matters because doctors care about your risk of health problems like heart disease or diabetes. And critics point to evidence showing BMI isn't necessarily reliable.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

And is that what this new research is showing?

[Will Stone]

Yeah, that's part of it. This latest study is from a team at the University of Florida, and it was published in the Annals of Family Medicine. They looked at more than 4,000 adults between the ages of 20 and 49 and their risk of dying over the next 15 years. And they compared BMI with body fat percentage. Arch Mainus is one of the study's authors.

[Scott Simon]

What we find is that BMI doesn't predict. We find that this direct measure of body fat and lean muscle mass does.

[Will Stone]

Predict, and it predicts quite well. So here they measured body fat with bioelectrical impedance analysis, bia, and that uses an electrical current to estimate body composition. And you can buy scales that do this for a few hundred dollars. The accuracy does vary between machines, but Manus argues it's still better than bmi. And he points to their results showing people in the higher body fat group had a 78% increased risk of dying.

[Scott Simon]

And even for cardiovascular or heart disease.

[Will Stone]

What we find is that people who.

[Scott Simon]

Are above our standard thresholds on this.

[Will Stone]

Have 262% increased risk of dying in the next 15 years, which I thought was pretty dramatic.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

And what were those standard thresholds for body fat?

[Will Stone]

Okay, for men it was anyone over 27% body fat, and for women it was 44%. And those percentages are based on evidence, a review of studies. But the authors acknowledge there is no consensus about what the ranges should look like if body fat percentages do replace BMI one day. And that would likely vary based on age and other factors.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

Do others in the medical community think replacing BMI as a measure is a good idea?

[Will Stone]

Well, the fact is, BMI is baked into our healthcare system. It's simple, it's inexpensive, but the issues with it are well recognized. The American Medical association even updated its policy a few years ago to say doctors should not only rely on BMI when evaluating patients. I reached out to Dr. Michael Blaha about this. He's a cardiologist and researcher at Johns Hopkins University.

[Guy Marzirati]

I think BMI still has utility in large populations where you need a quick measurement. It gives you a real good starting point about how overweight or obese someone might be how much body fat they might have. And it is true that if you.

[Scott Simon]

Have a very high bmi, you're going.

[Guy Marzirati]

To have increased body fat. We know that. But in the clinical setting we need something better.

[Will Stone]

Now you know, this is just one study and there are limits. All cause mortality can be a blunt way to measure health risk. Also blah things. A waist circumference, not just body fat, is another good approach, but big picture. With so many people dealing with weight related chronic diseases, many doctors do agree it's critical to fine tune how they measure this so they can accurately advise patients about their risk.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

NPR health correspondent Will Stone. Thank you so much, Will.

[Will Stone]

Thank you.

[Scott Simon]

And that's it. First for August 2nd, 2025. I'm Scott Syme. Our producers today, Elena Tour, Gabe O'.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

Connor and Ryan Bank, Ed McNulty edited along with Melissa Gray, Dee Parvaz, Rafael Nam, Acacia Squyers and Jane Greenhalgh.

[Scott Simon]

In the control room, we had our director, Fernando Naro, technical director David Greenberg. Just outside were engineers Nisha Hynes, Damian Herring and Zoe Van Genhoven. Shannon Rhodes is our acting senior supervisor. Editor Evie Stone is our executive producer. Jim Cain is our deputy managing editor.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

Tomorrow on the Sunday story, psychedelics and mental health. The latest on the science, the efforts to bring these mind altering drugs into the mainstream and what's ketamine got to do with it?

[Scott Simon]

That's here in your podcast feed and a whole lot more is on the radio. Go to stations.NPR.org to find your local station right now. Don't delay.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

We're still around. Okay, people. Some people were wondering. We're still here.

[Scott Simon]

We're still here.

[Will Stone]

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