Economy In The Next 100 Days, Ukraine Minerals Deal, India And Pakistan Tension

Summary

Up First from NPR – May 1, 2025

NPR's Up First provides the essential news to kickstart your day, offering in-depth reporting and analysis on the top three stories. In this episode, hosted by Michelle Martin and Layla Fauld, the discussion centers around the U.S. economy's trajectory over the next 100 days, a pivotal minerals deal between Ukraine and the U.S., and escalating tensions between India and Pakistan.

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1. The U.S. Economy: Navigating the Next 100 Days

Economic Contraction and Public Sentiment

The episode opens with concerns about the U.S. economy, highlighting that during the first 100 days of the Trump administration, economic output experienced a contraction. Michelle Martin introduces the topic by noting, "Americans are increasingly worried that a recession is coming" (00:50).

Business Perspectives

Jeremy Rice, co-owner of House Decor in Lexington, Kentucky, shares his apprehensions:
"So first we had the housing crisis, then we had Covid. So we look at this as like the next battle." (03:10)
He emphasizes the vulnerability of non-essential businesses during economic downturns.

Cindy Ayers Elliott, CEO of Footprint Farms in Jackson, Mississippi, discusses the rising operational costs:
"It's not just automotive parts... It's also food and fertilizer and gas." (03:42)
She underscores the ripple effect of increased production costs on both businesses and consumers.

Economic Analysis with Scott Horsley

Scott Horsley delves deeper into the economic outlook, explaining that the contraction was partly due to the president's trade war, which began to impact consumer confidence and spending: "Consumer spending has not dried up, but people are being more careful about their spending, especially when it comes to things like eating out." (04:28)

He further elaborates on the job market's resilience, noting low unemployment rates but cautioning about a potential slowdown in hiring: "Unemployment in March was just 4.2%. We're going to get the April jobs numbers tomorrow." (05:25)

Personal Stories Highlighting Economic Strain

Seth Lillevott, a biotech employee in San Diego, reflects personal anxieties:
"I'm anxious about the prospect of being laid off from work. This is just the beginning. I'm like, there's going to be more." (06:00)
His story illustrates the broader apprehension among workers regarding job security and financial stability.

Prospects of a Recession

While the risk of a recession has increased, Scot Horsley provides a nuanced view: "Not necessarily. Although the risk of a recession has certainly increased since the president launched his trade war." (06:40)
He discusses the potential long-term impacts on global trade and economic growth, emphasizing that future developments in trade policies will play a critical role in shaping the economy.

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2. Ukraine and the U.S. Minerals Deal: A Strategic Partnership

Overview of the Agreement

Ukraine and the U.S. have reached a significant agreement to jointly invest in Ukraine's critical minerals and natural resources. Layla Fauld introduces the deal: "Ukraine has agreed to a deal with the US to jointly invest in Ukraine's minerals and other natural resources." (00:58)

Details and Implications

Cindy Ayers Elliott, reporting from Kyiv, provides insights into the deal's mechanics: "Ukraine's economy minister... said income would come from new licenses for critical minerals, things like graphite, titanium, lithium, as well as other natural resources." (08:20)
She highlights that the agreement ensures equal voting rights over the investment fund, with Ukraine retaining control over its infrastructure and resources.

Ukrainian Perspective and Optimism

Volodymyr Landa, a senior economist in Kyiv, expresses cautious optimism: "This deal at least does not smack of colonialism." (09:01)
Scott Horsley adds that the partnership is designed to be mutually beneficial, fostering long-term cooperation: "The agreement is designed as a win-win partnership, which gives us hope that such an agreement will actually be implemented in the long run." (09:21)

Security Concerns and Political Dynamics

While the deal focuses on economic collaboration, security guarantees against Russia remain a critical concern: "From what we know, it does not address them explicitly, though Ukrainians see the language coming out of the White House as a good sign." (10:26)
Cindy Ayers Elliott notes that the agreement refrains from counting previous U.S. military aid as debt, which had been a sticking point in earlier negotiations: "It appears to not count previous US Military aid to Ukraine as debt that needs to be repaid." (09:30)

Impact on U.S.-Ukraine Relations

The deal marks a potential improvement in U.S.-Ukraine relations, which had been strained earlier this year. Landa hopes it signifies a thaw: "He says he hopes this represents a thaw in the relationship." (09:44)

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3. Rising Tensions Between India and Pakistan: A Volatile Situation

Triggering Incident: Militant Attack in Kashmir

A recent militant attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir has intensified tensions between India and Pakistan. Michelle Martin sets the stage: "Now they're running hot after a militant attack killed 26 people in Indian controlled Kashmir." (11:40)

Details of the Attack

Jeremy Rice details the brutality of the attack: "Gunmen opened fire on tourists... asked their victims if they were Muslim and if they weren't, they shot them." (12:10)
The incident, primarily targeting Hindu men, has incited national outrage in India.

Response and Escalation

In retaliation, both nations have engaged in daily exchanges of gunfire along their border: "Suddenly, there are near daily exchanges of gunfire." (12:43)
Scott Horsley explains the precarious nature of the situation: "The nature of this attack crossed... a threshold of brazenness that makes it politically difficult for Modi not to respond militarily." (13:00)

International Concerns and Potential for Escalation

With both countries possessing nuclear weapons, analysts warn of the dangers of escalating conflict: "The problem is, though, it could spin out of control, both these countries have nuclear weapons." (14:13)
Michelle Martin highlights U.S. efforts to mediate: "US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has been calling on both sides to de-escalate." (14:20)

Challenges in Diplomacy

Dia Hadid from Mumbai discusses the pattern of escalation and the difficulty in defusing tensions without external intervention: "India and Pakistan escalating and then waiting for outsiders to de-escalate the crisis." (14:35)
Scott Horsley emphasizes the international community's role: "The talking off the ledge is the responsibility of the international community." (14:47)

Current Status and Outlook

As both nations implement retaliatory measures, the situation remains volatile. Analysts and experts are closely monitoring developments to prevent further escalation.

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Conclusion

This episode of Up First offers a comprehensive overview of pressing global and domestic issues. From economic uncertainties in the U.S. to strategic international agreements and volatile geopolitical tensions, the discussions provide listeners with a nuanced understanding of the factors shaping today's world. Notable insights from experts and firsthand accounts enrich the narrative, making it an essential listen for staying informed.

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For more in-depth coverage, visit NPR's Morning Edition or subscribe to Up First+ for an ad-free experience.

Transcript

[Layla Fauld]

Hey, it's Laila. One thing before we start the show. When you listen to up first and anything else from the NPR network, you're listening to public media, meaning it serves the public with nonprofit independent journalism, the shows you love and the conversations that keep you company. There are a lot of ways to get your news, but public media is unique. It's accountable to you, freely accessible and full of voices and stories you can't find anywhere else. Public media giving days are here. It's a really good time to support this vital resource that you and millions of people around the country rely on. If you don't give already, do it today. Just visit donate.NPR.org thanks so much. Americans are increasingly worried that a recession is coming.

[Michelle Martin]

I just feel like the best thing to do is to save and then try to stay calm. We're all sort of in the same boat. Where is the US economy headed in the next 100 days?

[Layla Fauld]

I'm Layla Fauld and that's Michelle Martin. And this is up first from NPR News. Ukraine has agreed to a deal with the US to jointly invest in Ukraine's minerals and other natural resources.

[Scott Horsley]

The agreement is designed as a win win partnership, which gives us hope that such an agreement will actually be implemented in the long run.

[Layla Fauld]

But does it include security guarantees against Russia?

[Michelle Martin]

And soldiers are exchanging daily gunfire along the border of India and Pakistan as tensions between the countries threaten to boil over. Stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your foreign.

[Scott Horsley]

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[Michelle Martin]

When it comes to steering the US economy, the Trump administration has had a rocky first 100 days.

[Layla Fauld]

Economic output shrank during the first three months of the and we asked Americans how it feels to hear that news. Jeremy Rice of Lexington, Kentucky, co owns a home decor shop called House and remembers other slumps.

[Jeremy Rice]

So first we had the housing crisis, then we had Covid. So we look at this as like the next battle.

[Layla Fauld]

His shop sells faux flowers, mainly shipped from China. The business is not recession proof.

[Jeremy Rice]

How much are people really going to be able to spend when your industry.

[Michelle Martin]

Or what you offer isn't something that's.

[Scott Horsley]

Like life dependent, right?

[Michelle Martin]

Like you don't have to have something pretty to live.

[Layla Fauld]

Cindy Ayers Elliott is CEO of Footprint Farms in Jackson, Mississippi. She's lost grants from the US Department of Agriculture and her costs have gone up.

[Michelle Martin]

It's not just automotive parts.

[Cindy Ayers Elliott]

It's also food and fertilizer and gas.

[Michelle Martin]

That use of fuel, your equipment.

[Scott Horsley]

If it costs me more to produce.

[Cindy Ayers Elliott]

It'S going to cost my neighbor or my client more to buy.

[Layla Fauld]

Maureen Hatfield is a retired letter carrier in Haines City, Florida. She's concerned about housing and rising prices.

[Cindy Ayers Elliott]

I manage on a limited budget, but.

[Michelle Martin]

It'S tighter and tighter at the store.

[Cindy Ayers Elliott]

Like, we all joke about the price.

[Michelle Martin]

Of eggs, but it really is ridiculous.

[Layla Fauld]

So what's in store for the next hundred days and beyond?

[Michelle Martin]

NPR's Scott Horsley is with us now to talk about the economic outlook. Good morning, Scott.

[Scott Horsley]

Good morning.

[Michelle Martin]

So yesterday we learned that the U.S. economy contracted during the first quarter of the year. Is the second quarter looking any better?

[Scott Horsley]

Not so far. The first quarter was all about people bracing for the president's trade war. April, which marks the start of the second quarter, is when those tariffs really started to bite, and that has rattled financial markets. It's also made consumers nervous that prices are going to go up. Consumer spending has not dried up, but chief economist Greg Dacko of EY Parthenon says people are being more careful about their spending, especially when it comes to things like eating out.

[Jeremy Rice]

We did see a bit of a step back in spending on restaurants and bars. And with income trends starting to cool quite significantly, that is an additional headwind.

[Michelle Martin]

For many families across the country in.

[Jeremy Rice]

Terms of their ability to spend on discretionary items.

[Scott Horsley]

As we know, consumer spending is the lifeblood of this economy. So when families start to cut back like that, it can really put the brakes on economic growth.

[Michelle Martin]

You know, in order to spend money, people usually have to make money so how's the job market holding up?

[Scott Horsley]

So far, the job market's been very resilient. Unemployment in March was just 4.2%. We're going to get the April jobs numbers tomorrow. Forecasters expect to see some slowdown in hiring. In general, workers say they're feeling a little less confident about job security. Seth Lillevott is in that camp. He's still working for a biotech company in San Diego, but his employer has already had two rounds of job cuts this year.

[Michelle Martin]

I'm anxious about the prospect of being laid off from work. This is just the beginning. I'm like, there's going to be more.

[Scott Horsley]

Lilibivat is also a little worried about the drop in his retirement savings. The S&P 500 index is down about 7% since Inauguration Day. Lilleviv's being more conservative about his own spending. That means no more stopping for coffee and pastries after swim practice every week. He has put off a little home improvement project that he had been planning for this year.

[Michelle Martin]

I just feel like the best thing to do is just save and then just try to stay calm. You know, we're all sort of in.

[Scott Horsley]

The same boat right now. That boat is getting tossed around a little bit by the economic headwind. So it's no wonder, Michelle, some people are feeling a little seasick.

[Michelle Martin]

Yeah, how about that? You know, a lot of people say they're worried about a recession. Is that where we're headed?

[Scott Horsley]

Not necessarily. Although the risk of a recession has certainly increased since the president launched his trade war. We've already seen a substantial slowdown in cargo traffic, especially from China, where those tariffs are in effect. Gene Soroka, who runs the ordinarily busy Port of Los Angeles, says that's going to hit the paychecks of a lot of transportation and warehouse workers. We're not going to put longshoremen and women out of work, but they'll probably get less hours because fewer containers are coming in. The truck drivers may not haul as.

[Cindy Ayers Elliott]

Many boxes every day as they do right now.

[Scott Horsley]

Global trade will slow, prices will increase, and it will impact jobs across America and the world. Now, Greg Dacko says whether we actually fall into recession could depend on whether Trump's tariffs remain in place or get watered down. Even if the tariffs are rolled back, Dacko warns we're likely to be looking at fairly sluggish growth for the rest of this year.

[Michelle Martin]

That is NPR's Scott Horsley. Scott, thank you.

[Scott Horsley]

You're welcome.

[Michelle Martin]

Ukraine and the US have agreed to a deal.

[Layla Fauld]

They will share profits from the sale of Ukraine's critical minerals and raw materials. Both sides are calling it a win. The deal is intended to give the White House an economic motive to keep investing in Ukraine's defense and reconstruction as the Trump administration tries to broker an end to the war.

[Michelle Martin]

Joining us now to tell us more about this is NPR's Joanna Kakisis, who's in Kyiv, Ukraine's capital. Hello, Joanna. Thanks for joining us once again.

[Cindy Ayers Elliott]

Thanks for having me, Michelle.

[Michelle Martin]

So how will this economic agreement work?

[Cindy Ayers Elliott]

So Ukraine's economy minister, Yulia Svitadenko, she led Ukrainian negotiations on the deal, and she said income would come from new licenses for critical minerals, things like graphite, titanium, lithium, as well as other natural resources. And she noted that Ukraine and the US Will have equal voting rights over the investment fund and that Ukraine would keep total control of its infrastructure and natural resources. Now, US Mining companies are expected to make money, of course, as are other American companies if they end up being involved in Ukraine's reconstruction.

[Michelle Martin]

Now, this just all came together just a few hours ago as we are speaking now. But from what you understand, how are Ukrainians reacting to this deal?

[Cindy Ayers Elliott]

Well, the Ukrainians I've spoken to describe, I would describe their reaction as very guarded optimism. We spoke to Volodymyr Landa, senior economist with the center for Economic Strategy in Kyiv. He's been following the minerals negotiations closely for months, and he says this deal at least does not smack of colonialism.

[Scott Horsley]

The agreement is designed as a win, win partnership, which gives us hope that such an agreement will actually be implemented in the long run.

[Cindy Ayers Elliott]

So unlike previous versions of the deal, Landa says this version does not obstruct Ukraine on its path to the European Union. And crucially, it appears to not count previous US Military aid to Ukraine as debt that needs to be repaid.

[Michelle Martin]

Does this mean that the Trump administration's relationship with Ukraine has improved?

[Cindy Ayers Elliott]

Well, you know, some people here are sure hoping so because the relationship wasn't good to begin with. You will recall that in late February, this minerals agreement stalled when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the White House and President Trump and Vice President J.D. vance publicly berated him for not being grateful enough for U.S. support. Zelensky had refused to sign an early draft of the minerals deal because he said it would have left generations of Ukrainians deeply in debt while giving them very little in return, especially security guarantees so Russia does not invade Ukraine again.

[Michelle Martin]

And does this deal address any of those security guarantees?

[Cindy Ayers Elliott]

So, Michelle, from what we know, it does not address them explicitly, though Ukrainians see the language coming out of the White House as a good sign. For example, in a statement, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said that the agreement shows Russia that this administration wants a free, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine. And he added, quote, no state or person who financed or supplied the Russian war machine will be allowed to benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine. So Volodymyr Landa, the economist we heard from earlier, he says he hopes this represents a thaw in the relationship.

[Scott Horsley]

The agreement could restore constructive relations between two countries by defining the format of further US Military and financial support to Ukraine.

[Cindy Ayers Elliott]

Now Ukraine says these security guarantees are crucial, especially as ceasefire talks continue. Meanwhile, Russia has unilaterally declared its own three day ceasefire starting in a week to mark the Soviet Union's victory against Nazi Germany. But the Russians say they're in no hurry to come to the negotiating table.

[Michelle Martin]

That is NPR's Joanna Kakissis in Kiev. Joanna, thank you.

[Cindy Ayers Elliott]

You're welcome.

[Michelle Martin]

Tensions between India and Pakistan often run hot and cold. Now they're running hot after a militant attack killed 26 people in Indian controlled Kashmir.

[Layla Fauld]

The militants fled and a manhunt is ongoing since then. Armies from the two countries are exchanging sporadic gunfire at the border almost every day.

[Michelle Martin]

To explain what's going on, we've called NPR's Dia Hadid. She covers Pakistan and India from her base in Mumbai. Hello, Diya. Thanks for joining us once again.

[Jeremy Rice]

Thank you, Michelle.

[Michelle Martin]

So let's start here. What happened that led to this?

[Jeremy Rice]

Well, last week gunmen opened fire on tourists in a meadow that's in Indian controlled Kashmir. It's a territory claimed by Pakistan and India and both countries control parts of it. But this attack was pretty harsh. Eyewitnesses reported that some gunmen asked their victims if they were Muslim and if they weren't, they shot them. So most of the killed were Hindu men and the attack felt visceral in this Hindu majority nation. Praveen Dhonti is from the International Crisis Group and he says that's put pressure on India to respond.

[Cindy Ayers Elliott]

The civilians, you know, 26 of them.

[Michelle Martin]

They belong to all parts of the.

[Scott Horsley]

Country and it's the first time such a big attack has been mounted. So there is a lot of anger among the Indian public.

[Cindy Ayers Elliott]

They've been paying for blood right now.

[Michelle Martin]

So. So there is pressure on India to respond with retaliatory strikes on Pakistan. But why is India blaming Pakistan for this attack?

[Jeremy Rice]

Yeah, they're blaming Pakistan because the group that claim responsibility is seen as a proxy for the Pakistani army. Now Pakistan denies any connection and has called for a neutral investigation. But that hasn't mollified India. It quickly announced it was withdrawing diplomats. It shutted down a border crossing and it suspended a water sharing agreement that Pakistan sees as existential to its survival. So Pakistan's announced similar measures and it's banned trade with India.

[Michelle Martin]

Has there been violence since the initial shootings?

[Jeremy Rice]

Yeah, Michelle, like you mentioned earlier, there's been near daily exchanges of gunfire. Residents are fleeing the area on both sides. Yesterday, Pakistan said it shot down two Indian drones and overnight it cancelled commercial flights to Himalayan areas that are close to Kashmir. So analysts say it's now a waiting game. Like Milan Veshnov. He's with the Carnegie Endowment.

[Scott Horsley]

There is enormous pressure on Prime Minister Modi to respond with some kind of military maneuver. The nature of this attack crossed, I think, a threshold of brazenness that makes it politically difficult for Modi not to respond militarily.

[Jeremy Rice]

The problem is, though, it could spin out of control, both these countries have nuclear weapons.

[Michelle Martin]

Now the US Secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has been calling on both sides to de escalate. Is there any chance of that, any sign of that happening?

[Jeremy Rice]

Yeah, there could be. But you see, analysts say this is part of the problem in South Asia. There's a pattern of India and Pakistan escalating and then waiting for outsiders to de escalate the crisis. One Pakistani columnist, Arifanoor, recently wrote about.

[Scott Horsley]

This India and Pakistan don't just walk into a war by accident.

[Cindy Ayers Elliott]

There is this entire expectation that somebody.

[Scott Horsley]

Is going to talk us off the ledge. The talking off the ledge is the.

[Jeremy Rice]

Responsibility of the international community. So now we're waiting to see if Rubio can talk Pakistan and India off the ledge.

[Michelle Martin]

That is NPR's Dia Hadid in Mumbai. Diya, thank you.

[Jeremy Rice]

You're welcome, Michelle.

[Michelle Martin]

And that's up first for Thursday, May 1st. I'm Michele Martin.

[Layla Fauld]

And I'm Layla Falden. Thanks for listening to up first. You can find more in depth coverage of the stories we talked about today and lots More on NPR's Morning Edition, the radio show that Steve Inskeep, a Martinez, Michelle Martin and I host. Find MORNING Edition on your local NPR.

[Michelle Martin]

[e-mail] Today's episode of Up first was edited by Raphael Nam, Ryland, Barton Vincent nee Janaya Williams and Alice Wolfley. It was produced by Ziad Budge, Nia Dumas and Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Damien Herring. And our technical director is Carly Strange. We hope you'll join us again tomorrow.

[Scott Horsley]

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