Election Takeaways, Trump Legal Cases, Trump And The Economy

Summary

Up First from NPR: Election Takeaways, Trump Legal Cases, and the Economy

Hosted by NPR’s Steve Inskeep, Michelle Martin, Domenico Montanaro, and Scott Horsley, this episode of "Up First" delves into the key outcomes of the recent election, the legal challenges facing former President Donald Trump, and the economic policies he proposes as he transitions into the presidency.

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1. Election Takeaways: Shifts in Voter Demographics and Coalitions

Voter Demographics Shift

Michelle Martin opens the discussion by highlighting intriguing changes in the electorate that propelled Donald Trump to victory. "A look at the electorate that chose Donald Trump reveals some intriguing facts," she states at [00:03]. Exit polls indicate an increase in the share of white voters, while the proportion of non-white voters has declined. Steve Inskeep probes the implications of this shift: "How does that shift our sense of who's voting and who's not?" ([00:06]).

Political Realignment and Trump's Expanding Coalition

NPR’s senior political editor, Domenico Montanaro, provides a deeper analysis of the election results. He notes, "We're in the middle of a political realignment in the country," ([02:57]) suggesting that the current political landscape is volatile and the full effects of this realignment are yet to be understood. Montanaro emphasizes that Trump has successfully expanded his coalition, which is evident in his performance among Latino voters and younger demographics. "Trump actually expanded his coalition and it's why this time, for the first time, he's on track to win the popular vote," he explains ([03:54]).

Latino Voter Support

A significant takeaway is Trump's unprecedented support among Latino voters. Montanaro reveals, "Get this, he got 46% of Latinos, which is the best any Republican has ever done with them," ([04:08]). This success is attributed to Trump's appeal to Latino men and young men, groups that traditionally leaned Democratic.

Gender Dynamics in Voting

The election also showcased complex gender dynamics. While women overall increased their participation ([04:10]), only "53% of women voted for Harris. That's the worst for a Democrat in 20 years," Montanaro points out ([04:10]). However, he notes that Harris performed better among white college-educated women compared to Biden, but this demographic was insufficient to offset the strong support Trump received from white women without degrees ([04:10]).

2. Trump's Legal Challenges: Navigating Convictions and Federal Cases

Historic Conviction and Its Implications

Michelle Martin emphasizes the unprecedented nature of Trump's situation: "Trump will be the first convicted felon to serve as president," ([00:15]). During his campaign, Trump threatened to fire Special Counsel Jack Smith, who is overseeing his legal cases. However, as Martin clarifies, "Trump won't have to because Jack Smith cannot prosecute a sitting president," ([00:29]).

Special Counsel Jack Smith and DOJ's Stance

Kerry Johnson elaborates on the Department of Justice's long-standing position that a sitting president cannot be indicted or face criminal trial. "Both Republican and Democratic administrations have followed this view," she states ([06:35]). Johnson explains that Special Counsel Jack Smith is working to wind down federal cases against Trump, including the January 6th case and the Florida documents case, potentially before the inauguration ([07:24]).

Potential Outcomes of Business Fraud Charges

The episode also touches on Trump's conviction in New York on business fraud charges. Johnson notes the uncertainty surrounding these charges, particularly regarding whether evidence presented by Trump supporters might impair the case ([09:14]). The judge's decision on sentencing Trump could imminently impact the legal landscape as he assumes office.

Trump's Rhetoric vs. DOJ's Actions

Steve Inskeep raises concerns about Trump's aggressive rhetoric towards his legal opponents, including threats against Jack Smith ([08:04]). Johnson responds by highlighting the Justice Department's adherence to regulations, which mandate that special counsels produce reports on their findings ([08:25]). She also references past instances where Attorney General Bill Barr released special counsel reports, underscoring the DOJ's protocol in handling such matters ([09:14]).

3. Economic Policies: Trump's Vision for a "Golden Age"

Tax Cuts and Tariffs

Scott Horsley examines Trump’s economic proposals, which include extending portions of the 2017 tax cuts and implementing additional corporate tax cuts. "He’s also called for additional cuts to corporate taxes if Congress goes along long," Horsley explains ([10:35]). These tax cuts are projected to boost economic growth but raise concerns about increasing the federal deficit ([10:42]).

Impact of Tariffs on the Economy

The cornerstone of Trump's economic strategy involves imposing blanket tariffs on imports. Economist Michael Polisi comments, "Tariffs are first and foremost a revenue raiser. It's a tax on imported goods that are brought into the United States," ([11:12]). These tariffs are expected to slow economic growth in the near term while generating additional government revenue.

Federal Debt and Borrowing Costs

Horsley addresses the long-term fiscal implications of Trump's policies. "The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Trump's overall economic plans would add nearly $8 trillion to the federal debt over the next decade," he states ([11:28]). This significant increase in debt could lead to higher borrowing costs for the government, potentially affecting everything from mortgage rates to the cost of consumer loans ([12:11]).

Federal Reserve's Role and Interest Rates

The discussion also covers the Federal Reserve's response to Trump's economic policies. Despite expectations of a "quarter percentage point" interest rate cut ([12:37]), economists like Polisi suggest that the Fed may adopt a more cautious approach if Trump's policies lead to higher inflation without substantial economic growth ([12:56]). Additionally, there's uncertainty over whether Trump will respect the Fed's independence, especially with the potential nomination of a more compliant Fed Chairman successor ([13:32]).

Impact on Labor and Consumer Prices

Horsley highlights the contradictory nature of Trump's promises. While tax cuts are intended to stimulate growth, mass deportations could disrupt labor markets, particularly in industries reliant on immigrant labor. "If you're worried about the cost of groceries, deporting people who pick and process food is probably not the best answer," he warns ([13:11]).

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Conclusion

This episode of "Up First" provides a comprehensive overview of the pivotal election outcomes, the complex legal challenges awaiting Donald Trump, and the ambitious yet contentious economic policies he intends to implement. As Trump prepares to take office, the interplay between his legal status, voter demographics, and economic strategies will be crucial in shaping the United States' political and economic landscape in the coming years.

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For more in-depth analysis and updates, subscribe to "Up First" and support NPR's journalism at donate.npr.org.

Transcript

[Michelle Martin]

A look at the electorate that chose Donald Trump reveals some intriguing facts.

[Steve Inskeep]

Exit polls find the share of white voters grew while the share of non white voters went down. How does that shift our sense of who's voting and who's not?

[Michelle Martin]

I'm Michelle Martin with Steve Inskeep. And this is up first from NPR News. Trump will be the first convicted felon to serve as president. During the campaign, he spoke of firing one of the people pursuing a pending case, the special counsel.

[Kerry Johnson]

It's so easy, I would fire him within two seconds.

[Michelle Martin]

Trump won't have to because Jack Smith cannot prosecute a sitting president. How does Smith finish up?

[Steve Inskeep]

Also, we have an assessment of the president elect's promise to raise tariffs, taxes on imports.

[Michael Polisi]

The near term impact would be slower economic growth, but it would also bring in revenue.

[Steve Inskeep]

So who are the winners and losers? Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day.

[Tom Colicchio]

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[Judy Abrams]

I n cookware.com this message comes from BetterHelp. It's important to take time to show gratitude towards others, but it's equally important to thank yourself. Life throws a lot of curveballs and being grateful isn't always easy. Therapy can help remind you of all that you're worthy of and all that you do have. Let the gratitude flow with BetterHelp. [e-mail] NPR today to get 10% off your first month support for NPR. And the following message come from Fisher Investments SVP Judy Abrams shares how their fiduciary duty comes to life while helping clients plan for retirement.

[Kerry Johnson]

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[Judy Abrams]

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[Steve Inskeep]

Vice President Harris committed to a peaceful transfer of power yesterday in ways that President Elect Trump did not four years ago.

[Domenico Montanaro]

While I concede this election, I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign.

[Michelle Martin]

But we want to take another look at the voters who fueled that campaign, as well as her victorious opponents.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR's senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro is here with some fascinating findings. Domenico, good morning.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Hey, good morning.

[Steve Inskeep]

So what are in the results that you see?

[Domenico Montanaro]

Well, I mean, I've been saying for some time that we're in the middle of a political realignment in the country. When that's happening, you know, things look really volatile. We won't know what's on the other side of this until the dust settles. And that really hasn't happened yet in the age of Trump. But we did find out some things first. The issue landscape, of course, just favored Republicans from the start of this election because there was an overwhelmingly negative view of the economy. But I have to say, one of the most eye opening things that I saw in these exit polls is that white voters actually went up as a share of the electorate. That hasn't happened since 1992. I mean, white voters had been on a steady decline as a share of the electorate because they're a shrinking share of the eligible voter population. And going up clearly helped Trump.

[Steve Inskeep]

Yeah, I'm just thinking this through. So the country is becoming more diverse, more non white people, fewer white people. The electorate went the opposite way. So I guess either some non white voters felt conflicting pressures and sat it out, or new groups of white voters showed up. Is that it? Yeah.

[Domenico Montanaro]

I mean, it's hard to know exactly until we see turnout rates which are going to come out in, you know, coming months. But it wasn't just white voters that helped fuel Trump's win. I mean, Trump actually expanded his coalition and it's why this time, for the first time, he's on track to win the popular vote.

[Steve Inskeep]

How so? How would you say that?

[Domenico Montanaro]

You saw that women turned out. They're actually up a point as a share of the electorate from four years ago. But it appears Harris didn't get as many of them to vote for her as her team expected. I mean, just 53% of women voted for Harris. That's the worst for a Democrat in 20 years. Now, she did very well with white college educated women. Better than Biden, actually. But they weren't enough. I mean, look at white women without degrees. They made up an even bigger share of the electorate, one in five voters, and they broke overwhelmingly for Trump. Trump also, and this is huge, made big inroads with Latinos. Get this, he got 46% of Latinos, which is the best any Republican has ever done with Them. And Trump did it by winning over Latino men and young men.

[Steve Inskeep]

Okay, so you just mentioned Latino men, young men. How did he do overall with men?

[Domenico Montanaro]

Well, with Latino men, he won by 12 points. He won young men 18 to 29 by just a couple points. But many of them had been saying that they're upset that in their view, society says, you know, other groups are more important than they are. And they had a TikTok feed and a podcast to tell them exactly that. And it's pretty remarkable because Trump won men in every age group.

[Steve Inskeep]

Okay, so you've given us some broad trends here. Do you feel you understand why people voted as they did?

[Domenico Montanaro]

Well, I mean, one big piece of this, obviously, is cultural grievance, as I was noting there. But in our final polling, we got some other clues. You know, women seem to think Harris was sincere in these moderate proposals that she'd been putting forward in this campaign that were different from her presidential campaign five years ago. But men, they thought that she was doing it just to try and get votes. Clear that men and women see women as leaders very differently. And I think there's going to be a lot to dissect in that. The other piece of this, though, major thing obviously was the economy. We've been hearing it the entirety of the campaign. Working class Latinos just said they felt they were better off under Trump four years ago.

[Steve Inskeep]

Domenico, thanks very much for the insights. Really appreciate it.

[Domenico Montanaro]

You got it.

[Steve Inskeep]

That's NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Vice President Harris asked voters to turn the page on Donald Trump. Instead, he will turn the page on his legal problems.

[Michelle Martin]

Yes. Although he's already been convicted in state court, he started the year facing federal indictments that threatened to send him to prison. But having delayed the case, has then won reelection. He will end free and clear, in large part because the Justice Department is evaluating how to wind down two federal cases brought by special counsel Jack Smith.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR's Kerry Johnson has been following Trump's legal troubles. Kerry, good morning.

[Kerry Johnson]

Good morning, Steve.

[Steve Inskeep]

So this is interesting. Trump on the campaign trail talked of firing Jack Smith. He doesn't even have to do that.

[Kerry Johnson]

No, that's because there's a long standing view inside the Justice Department. Both Republican and Democratic administrations have followed this view. It says a sitting president cannot be indicted or face criminal trial. The reasoning there is it would be too much of a burden, that it would be unconstitutional and would undermine the work of the executive branch. Trump's Attorney General Bill Barr and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise are calling on this Justice Department to drop the D.C. case against Trump. The writing is on the wall, Bill Barr says. And people have considered these allegations against Trump about election interference, but the voters rejected them resoundingly.

[Steve Inskeep]

Okay, so how quickly is the Biden Justice Department moving here?

[Kerry Johnson]

Well, we can report Jack Smith is working with others inside the DOJ to wind down both of these federal cases, likely before the inauguration. First, there's that January 6th case in D.C. the election interference case. And then there's a separate case against Trump in Florida over his alleged hoarding of documents at his resort and his refusal to return them to the FBI. That case involves not just Donald Trump, but two other defendants, his valet and the property manager at Mar A Lago, Judge Eileen Cannon, remember, throughout that case. But prosecutors have been appealing her decision. And to drop the case against Trump could mean it goes away. As to all three of those defendants.

[Steve Inskeep]

Well, this gets to another question, Kerry, that's on my mind because I heard different opinions from Trump supporters. Trump talked of prosecuting his critics, including Jack Smith specifically, or even throwing him out of the country. I heard from Trump supporters who are like, yes, do that, and others who said, oh, he would never abuse his power in that way. So what seems likely actually to happen once he gets the power?

[Kerry Johnson]

While Trump's rhetoric on this has been really harsh, you're right. And we know the Justice Department has already spent millions of dollars on security for the special counsel, Jack Smith and his prosecutors. In the face of some of these rhetorical attacks and threats, the regulations at the Justice Department say special counsels write a report about their findings when their work is done. It's not clear yet how much progress Jack Smith has made on that report and whether the current administration might release some of it before Inauguration Day. Remember, in the Trump era, then Attorney General Barr ultimately released the report by the special counsel, then Robert Mueller, over Russian interference in the 2016 election, but only after Barr characterized it in a way that Mueller's prosecutors described as acting like a defense lawyer for Donald Trump.

[Steve Inskeep]

So we might see some kind of final report from Jack Smith. I want to ask about one other thing. We should note that Trump was less successful in delaying a until his election, and so he was convicted by a New York jury, which is why we refer to him as a convicted felon. 34 charges relating to business fraud. What happens in that case?

[Kerry Johnson]

It's really uncertain. The Supreme Court gave Trump sweeping immunity from prosecution for his official acts in the White House. But the bulk of this case in New York involved Trump's behavior before he won the first time in 2016. Prosecutors there during the trial in New York introduced some evidence from people who work for Trump in the White House. And now this judge has to decide whether that has fatally impaired the whole case and whether to go ahead and sentence Donald Trump on those charges next month, just weeks, Steve, before He's inaugurated the 47th president of the United States.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR's Kerry Johnson. I'm really glad you're here to talk us through this. Thanks so much.

[Kerry Johnson]

Thank you.

[Steve Inskeep]

The president elect promised lower income taxes and also higher tariffs, which are taxes on imports. He also promised mass deportations, including many people who work in the United States.

[Michelle Martin]

Markets are already reacting to these economic proposals. The stock market surged yesterday on news of his win.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR Scott Horsley joins us now. Scott, good morning.

[Scott Horsley]

Good morning, Steve.

[Steve Inskeep]

Okay, so how do Trump's economic policies line up with his promise the other day of a golden age in the United States?

[Scott Horsley]

Well, it might have to be borrowed gold. Trump has promised to extend portions the 2017 tax cut, which were set to expire next year. He's also called for additional cuts to corporate taxes if Congress goes along long. That could boost economic growth, but it's also likely to cut into government revenues and widen the federal deficit. The other centerpiece of Trump's economic platform, as you mentioned, is the blanket tariff on imports. Economist Michael Polisi of Wells Fargo says that could be a drag on economic growth.

[Michael Polisi]

Tariffs are first and foremost a revenue raiser. It's a tax. It's a tax on imported goods that are brought into the United States. So the tax would make the goods cost more. Right? Higher prices. I think that the near term impact would be slower economic growth, but it would also bring in revenue.

[Scott Horsley]

Trump has sometimes boasted that his tariffs would raise so much revenue they would pay for other parts of his agenda. Fiscal hawks, though, are skeptical. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Trump's overall economic plans would add nearly $8 trillion to the federal debt over the next decade. So while the stock market rallied yesterday on prospects of a business friendly White House, the bond market sagged under the expected weight of all that ext debt.

[Steve Inskeep]

I'm just thinking Trump has made contradictory statements saying he's going to raise tariffs so much that you won't even have to pay income taxes, but then also that companies will change their behavior in a way that they won't have to pay any tariffs. It becomes very confusing. So the bottom line is you borrow to make up the difference. What would the debt do to the government's borrowing costs?

[Scott Horsley]

Well, it would grow you know, the federal government's already spending more on interest payments than it does on defense or Medicare or anything other than Social Security. If the government has to borrow a lot more money, that could raise the cost of borrowing for you and me. You know, mortgage rates, typically the yield on 10 year treasuries, which jumped sharply yesterday. So that could make buying a house even more expensive.

[Steve Inskeep]

What does the Federal Reserve do as it meets today on interest rates?

[Scott Horsley]

The Fed sets short term interest rates, which affect things like car loans or the cost of carrying a balance on your credit card. The central bank is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point today. But Puglisi says the Fed may be more cautious going forward about cutting interest rates if these various Trump policies go.

[Michael Polisi]

Into effect based on this idea that if you're going to get some higher inflation from the tariffs from tax cuts, we'll see on the growth side, it's going to depend on what actually gets implemented. Plus the fact that the economic data have also just been trending a little bit better lately.

[Scott Horsley]

Inflation, which was such a big driver of people's frustration with the economy, has been coming down. But economists say some of Trump's policies could actually raise prices. For example, he wants to deport millions of immigrants who are in the country illegally. If you're worried about the cost of groceries, deporting people who pick and process food is probably not the best answer.

[Steve Inskeep]

Is Trump going to respect the Fed's independence?

[Scott Horsley]

We'll see. You know, the Fed is supposed to be insulated from political pressure, but Trump has never been shy about criticizing the central bank and its chairman, whom he appointed if he doesn't like the way they're managing interest rates. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has been pretty solid about not bowing to political pressure, but his term runs out in about a year and a half and Trump will have an opportunity to nominate a more malleable successor.

[Steve Inskeep]

Npr, Scott Horsley, thanks so much.

[Scott Horsley]

You're welcome.

[Steve Inskeep]

And that's up first for this Thursday, November 7th. I'm Steve Inskeep.

[Michelle Martin]

And I'm Michelle Martin. For your next listen, stay tuned to our feed for bonus episodes as we continue to analyze the results. You can also consider consider this from npr. President elect Donald Trump has brought a red wave to America. Who are the voters sending him back to the White House and why?

[Steve Inskeep]

Today's UP FIRST was edited by Krishnadev Kelamer, Anna Yukonanov, Raphael Nam, Olivia Hampton and Jan Johnson. It was produced by Ziad Bunch, Nia Dumas and Lindsey Toddy. We get engineering support from the ever supportive Carly Strange. And our technical direction comes from Zach Coleman. And we'll just note one of our co hosts has a birthday today. If you know him, congratulate him. A. Martinez. Join us tomorrow.

[Judy Abrams]

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