Russia-Ukraine 1000 Days, Hong Kong Activists Sentenced, Trump And Your Money

Summary

Up First from NPR – Episode Summary Release Date: November 19, 2024

NPR’s Up First delivers a comprehensive overview of the day’s most pressing news stories. In this episode, hosts Michelle Martin and Leila Fadel delve into three major topics: the ongoing impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the sentencing of pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong, and former President Donald Trump’s tax cut proposals. This summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and conclusions drawn during the episode.

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1. A Thousand Days of Conflict: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Leila Fadl opens the discussion by marking the somber milestone of a thousand days since Russia initiated its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The conflict has not only ravaged Ukraine, resulting in millions of displaced individuals and the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives, but it has also significantly altered the socio-political landscape within Russia itself.

Michelle Martin introduces Charles Minx, NPR’s Moscow correspondent, who provides an in-depth analysis of the war’s transformative effects on Russia. Minx explains:

“Everything from its geopolitics… now it has military alliances with rogue states like Iran and North Korea. … Russia under President Vladimir Putin was never a liberal democracy. But the repressions and near total crushing of dissent since the war started make the earlier Putin era seem comparatively free. And then there's the economy. Today, Russia is the world's most sanctioned state… the country has pivoted to new markets and new trade partners, often in China.”
[03:34] – Charles Minx

Minx further explores the domestic sentiment within Russia, highlighting the government’s portrayal of the war as a unifying effort against fascism. However, he notes the severe repression that stifles true public opinion:

“The government claims the Russian society is united behind the war effort. Some state polls will show the same. … I’ve met people who clearly buy into Kremlin propaganda … they see it as a continuation of the Soviet Union's fight against Nazi Germany in World War II.”
[04:12] – Charles Minx

Despite official narratives, Minx acknowledges the growing discontent among Russians, including those who have fled the country or faced imprisonment for dissent. He raises critical concerns about Russia’s recent approval of changes to its nuclear doctrine, signaling a potential escalation in the conflict.

2. Hong Kong’s Struggle: Sentencing of Pro-Democracy Activists

Transitioning to Asia, Michelle Martin and Leila Fadl focus on the latest crackdown in Hong Kong, where 45 pro-democracy activists were sentenced to prison under China’s national security law. This landmark court case has drawn international condemnation for its suppression of free speech and political activism.

Emily Fang, who has been closely covering Hong Kong’s political climate, provides detailed context:

“They’re essentially being sentenced today for subversion for trying to win an election. … That poll was supposed to pick the most competitive candidates. … Today, nearly everyone who helped organize that poll or was a candidate in that poll has been arrested.”
[06:23] – Emily Fang

Fang elaborates on the implications of these sentences for Hong Kong’s political direction:

“What was once this lively, often rambunctious civil society in Hong Kong is now entirely leaderless because almost all of the most influential activists there are now facing years more behind bars.”
[07:14] – Emily Fang

Notable figures like Joshua Wong and Benny Tai received significant prison terms, underscoring the intensified repression. Fang highlights the personal toll on activists, many of whom chose to plead guilty to reduce their sentences after enduring years of imprisonment:

“Among the 45 sentenced, about 3/4 of them pled guilty because they wanted to reduce their sentence times. They’ve been waiting almost four years behind bars already.”
[08:12] – Emily Fang

The Chinese government maintains its stance, labeling the activists as troublemakers and praising the national security law as essential for restoring order. Despite the harsh measures, there are faint signs of private defiance among the populace, though public protests appear unlikely given the severe repercussions.

3. Donald Trump’s Tax Cut Proposals: Promise vs. Fiscal Reality

Shifting to U.S. politics, the episode examines former President Donald Trump’s campaign promises regarding significant tax cuts aimed at bolstering American workers and small businesses. Leila Fadl presents Trump’s declarations:

“We will have no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on Social Security benefits.”
[09:38] – Donald Trump

To assess the feasibility and potential consequences of these proposals, NPR’s Laurel Wamsley offers a nuanced analysis:

“Trump is very likely to extend the big tax changes that he pushed through in 2017. … For households that make $60 to $100,000 a year, extending these tax cuts means that those folks get to keep about a thousand extra dollars a year. But wealthy people saw the most benefit. … Extending the 2017 law could increase the national debt by more than $4 trillion over the next decade.”
[10:12] – Laurel Wamsley

Wamsley further explores specific elements of Trump’s tax plan:

• No Tax on Tips: Affects approximately 2.5% of jobs. While it may seem minor, Wamsley warns of potential unintended consequences, such as employers reclassifying workers to exploit reduced tax liabilities.

  “Eliminating tax on tips would probably lead to some kind of squirrely effects… employers could also attempt to reclassify employees as tipped workers and drop their pay to the tipped minimum wage.”
  [11:05] – Laurel Wamsley

• No Tax on Social Security Benefits: Impacts about 40% of Social Security recipients. While currently not affecting most retirees, this change threatens the sustainability of the Social Security trust fund, potentially hastening its depletion by up to two years.

  “Eliminating these taxes means reducing the money that's available for Social Security, and that's a program that's already at risk…”
  [12:11] – Laurel Wamsley

Wamsley concludes that while Trump’s tax cuts may provide short-term financial relief for certain demographics, they pose significant risks to the federal budget and long-term economic stability.

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Up First effectively navigates through complex global and national issues, providing listeners with a clear and insightful analysis of pivotal events shaping our world. By featuring expert perspectives and on-the-ground reporting, the episode ensures that audiences are well-informed and prepared to engage with the news of the day.

Transcript

[Leila Fadl]

It's been a thousand days since Russia began its full scale invasion of Ukraine.

[Michelle Martin]

The war has devastated Ukraine and transformed life in Russia. How much further could it escalate as Moscow warns that U.S. missiles could trigger a nuclear response?

[Leila Fadl]

I'm Leila Fadl. That's Michelle Martin. And this is up first from NPR News. In Hong Kong, dozens of pro democracy activists are sentenced to prison under a national security law that critics say has crushed dissent. Why was a political poll considered a threat? And what message is China sending with these verdicts?

[Michelle Martin]

And President Elect Trump is laying out big promises for tax cuts.

[Donald Trump]

We will have no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on Social Security predators.

[Michelle Martin]

Sounds appealing, but could his plan blow a hole in the federal budget? Stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day.

[NPR Sponsor]

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[Michelle Martin]

Days since Russia launched its full scale invasion of its neighbor Ukraine.

[Leila Fadl]

The war forced the displacement of millions of Ukrainians from their homes and led to the death and maiming of hundreds of thousands of civilians and soldiers. But the war has, of course, also brought immense changes to life in Russia.

[Michelle Martin]

NPR's Moscow correspondent Charles Minx is going to talk about this. He's reported out of Russia since the beginning of the conflict. Hello, Charles.

[Charles Minz]

Good morning.

[Michelle Martin]

So Charles, I take it the question isn't whether Russia has changed as a result of the war, but how much?

[Charles Minz]

Yeah, you know, the truth is this war has transformed Russia completely. Everything from its geopolitics. You know, where once Russia sought acceptance, albeit often angrily, from the west, now it has military alliances with rogue states like Iran and North Korea. Also, look at its domestic political culture. You know, Russia under President Vladimir Putin was never a liberal democracy. But the repressions and near total crushing of dissent since the war started make the earlier Putin era seem comparatively free. And then there's the economy. Today, Russia is the world's most sanctioned state, but those are largely Western imposed sanctions. Big name western companies like McDonald's, Apple, Starbucks have all left Russia, but the country has pivoted to new markets and new trade partners, often in China. So the result is that what you eat, what you buy, what you say, read and watch, it's all changed.

[Michelle Martin]

That sounds kind of disorienting. Do we have a sense of what Russians think about this? Is there any way to know if they really support the war and how they feel about all the changes it's brought?

[Charles Minz]

Well, the government claims the Russian society is united behind the war effort. Some state polls will show the same. Although keep in mind the repressions that we mentioned. And through reporting, I've certainly met people who clearly buy into Kremlin propaganda that this is a war against fascism, that Ukraine is run by neo Nazis, and they see it as a continuation of the Soviet Union's fight against Nazi Germany in World War II. For example, here's tape from a conversation I had with a man named Andrei Nikolaievich, who I met on Red Square last year.

[Andrei Nikolaievich]

We have already had once this victory in 1945, and we expect peace. But peace should be with victory over the Nazis, new Nazis who occupied all the country of Ukraine.

[Charles Minz]

Do you worry about Russian forces killing other people, though, like innocent civilians, too?

[Andrei Nikolaievich]

No, it's all fake because we don't kill human beings that are peaceful. We kill only the soldiers.

[Charles Minz]

You know, Michel, that said, let's remember, tens of thousands of Russians fled the country in opposition to the war. Thousands more have gone to jail for civil disobedience. And in conversations I've had just day to day, people who aren't government critics or politically active tell me they just wish the whole thing would end.

[Michelle Martin]

And of course, now President elect Trump will be returning to the White House. He's promised to negotiate with Putin. He says he will quickly end the war. How is this seen from Russia? Are there prospects of peace seen from Russia.

[Charles Minz]

Well, I think it's fair to say there's a surging confidence in Moscow with Trump's suggestions he could end military support to Ukraine. President Putin this morning formally approved changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine, expanding the list of threats that might warrant a nuclear response from Moscow. It was a clear message to President Biden's decision this week to allow Ukraine to use American long range missiles to strike deep inside Russia. And I think one that raises the question of whether Putin has any intention of compromise going forward, that is.

[Michelle Martin]

NPR's Charles Maines in Moscow. Charles, thank you.

[Charles Minz]

Thank you.

[Michelle Martin]

Hong Kong's government, which is controlled by China, sentenced 45 pro democracy activists to prison sentences of up to 10 years each.

[Leila Fadl]

Yeah. They were found guilty of subversion of state power this year in a landmark court case that governments including the US have condemned for criminalizing free speech and political activity. The activists were sentenced for their roles in an unofficial primary poll held in 2020.

[Michelle Martin]

NPR's Emily Fang covered that primary and the months of anti government protests from Hong Kong leading up to the arrests of these activists. And she's with us now to tell us more about it. Good morning, Emily.

[Emily Fang]

Good morning.

[Michelle Martin]

Would you first tell us about this primary poll? Why is it considered subversion?

[Emily Fang]

Well, they're essentially being sentenced today for a subversion for trying to win an election. They wanted to pick the most popular candidates. And so they held this poll that you just mentioned and 600,000 plus people took part. That poll was supposed to pick the most competitive candidates. And it was a watershed moment. It was a moment when this pro democracy coalition really felt like they had a chance of actually winning a legislative seat in Hong Kong. And they were well organized and they enjoyed popular bets backing. But that's what is being called subversion now under Beijing's national Security Law because this coalition could actually have won a legislative seat. Ultimately, we know what happened half a year later. Nearly everyone who helped organize that poll or was a candidate in that poll has been arrested.

[Michelle Martin]

So what does this tell us about the political direction of Hong Kong?

[Emily Fang]

It tells us that what was once this lively, often rambunctious civil society in Hong Kong is now entirely leaderless because almost all of the most influential activists there are now facing years more behind bars. Among those sentenced today was Joshua Wong. You may recognize him when he was just a teenager, he was leading big protests demanding direct democratic elections back in 2014 and what's now called the umbrella Movement. Well, he's facing multiple charges, but today he just got another four Year, eight month sentence. And another person who got sentenced today is Benny Tai. He's a former professor who really conceptualized the umbrella movement, a veteran protest organizer. And he got the longest sentence today for organizing that 2020 primary. He is facing now decade, a decade behind bars. So today's sentencing really shows how worn down these activists are as well. Because among the 45 sentenced, about 3/4 of them pled guilty because they wanted to reduce their sentence times. They've been waiting almost four years behind bars already.

[Michelle Martin]

Wow. Has the Chinese government responded in some way to this?

[Emily Fang]

They've stayed quiet today, but their line has been unequivocal from the start. In Beijing's view, the people arrested under this national security are troublemakers. They are criminals who incited violent protests that diminished Hong Kong as a global financial center. And so they've applauded the security law that's nabbed these 45 people and said it is a much needed measure to return Hong Kong to order.

[Michelle Martin]

So given all you've told us about just the level of repression there, is there any way to know about how people in Hong Kong are feeling about this? And might there be any more protests?

[Emily Fang]

There will likely not be protests. We've seen what happened to people who have continued to protest. They are mostly now in prison. So likely no public defiance, but perhaps some private defiance. Gwyneth Ho, who rose to prominence as a journalist and then became an activist, she was one of the people sentenced today with a seven year prison sentence. Supporters of hers released a statement on Facebook in which she actually expressed pride at what she'd achieved. And she said for these values it was worth to dare to act. And that's why she, quote, dared to suffer.

[Michelle Martin]

That is NPR's Emily Fang. Emily, thank you.

[Emily Fang]

Thank you.

[Michelle Martin]

On the campaign trail, Donald Trump promised to put more money back in Americans pockets by cutting their taxes.

[Leila Fadl]

Here he is at an event in Raleigh, North Carolina, the day before the election.

[Donald Trump]

My plan will massively cut taxes for workers and small businesses. And we will have no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on Social Security benefits.

[Leila Fadl]

So what will a second Trump presidency mean for your taxes? It might mean a lower tax bill, but it could have drastic consequences for the national budget.

[Michelle Martin]

Here to explain all this is Laurel Wamsley, who covers personal finance for npr. Good morning, Laurel.

[Laurel Wamsley]

Hey, Michelle.

[Michelle Martin]

Okay, so Trump is making a lot of promises about taxes. What's the most important thing for people to know?

[Laurel Wamsley]

Well, the biggest thing is that Trump is very likely to extend the big tax changes that he pushed through in 2017. That was a pretty sweeping law, and it did lower most people's tax bills. For households that, say, make 60 to $100,000 a year, extending these tax cuts means that those folks get to keep about a thousand extra dollars a year. But wealthy people saw the most benefit. For those who are who make more than a million dollars, it means reducing their taxes on average by about $70,000. And there are also big corporate tax cuts as part of that package, too. But all these cuts are expensive. Extending the 2017 law could increase the national debt by more than $4 trillion over the next matters. Less tax revenue coming in means cutting government programs.

[Michelle Martin]

For example, let's talk about some of Trump's other proposals. For instance, no taxes on tips. What sort of impact would that have?

[Laurel Wamsley]

Yeah, this is a tax cut that made big headlines, but it only impacts a small part of the labor market. Only about 2 1/2% of all jobs. And many tipped workers, over a third of them earn so little that they already don't pay federal income tax. So now there aren't too many details on how exactly all of this would work. But eliminating tax on tips would, would probably lead to some kind of squirrely effects. For example, say I hire a guy to trim the tree at my house, and that's something I usually pay him $500 to do. Now, he might tell me that it costs $300 to trim my tree, but that he expects a $200 tip, knowing that he won't be taxed on that portion of the income. We could see tipping proliferate into places we haven't seen it before. And employers could also attempt to reclassify employees as tipped workers and drop their pay to the tipped minimum wage. And for that, the federal minimum wage right now is $2.13. And like the 2017 tax cuts, this would blow another hole in the federal budget. This one would cost us about $100 billion over 10 years.

[Michelle Martin]

Trump also says he would stop taxing Social Security benefits. What sort of effects would we see from that?

[Laurel Wamsley]

Well, for most current retirees, it wouldn't have any effect. Only about 40% of people who get Social Security pay federal income tax on it. But again, the effects of this change would be huge, and it would make things worse for those of us who are still years away from drawing Social Security. That's because a big chunk of those taxes on Social Security go straight into funding the Social Security trust fund. So eliminating these taxes means reducing the money that's available for Social Security, and that's a program that's already at risk if no one pays taxes on their Social Security benefits, that fund is going to run out sooner, perhaps two years earlier than it's already on track to do.

[Michelle Martin]

That is NPR's Laurel Wamsley. Laurel, thank you.

[Laurel Wamsley]

You're welcome.

[Michelle Martin]

And that's up first for Tuesday, November 19th. I'm Michelle Martin.

[Leila Fadl]

And I'm Leila Fauldel. For your next listen, you should consider Consider this from npr. President elect Trump suggested that in his second term he'll take on the news media with more than just words. How might he do it? And how will the press respond? Listen to Consider this from npr.

[Michelle Martin]

Today's episode of up first was edited by Rylan Barton, Kevin Drew, Raphael Nam, Mohammed El Bardisi and Alice Wolfley. It was produced by Ziad Butch, Nia Dumas and Milton Guevara. We get engineering support from Arthur Laurent, and our technical director is Zach Coleman. We hope you'll join us again tomorrow.

[NPR Sponsor]

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