Global Economic Forecast Dims, Ukraine Peace Talks, Pope Francis Lies In State

Summary

Up First from NPR – April 23, 2025

NPR's "Up First" delivers the three biggest stories of the day with in-depth reporting and analysis. In this episode, hosts Emmy Martinez and Steve Inskeep cover the dimming global economic forecast amid the U.S.-China trade war, ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and the lying in state of Pope Francis.

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1. Global Economic Forecast Dims Amid U.S.-China Trade War

Overview: The episode opens with a focus on the deteriorating global economic outlook, primarily driven by the ongoing trade war between the United States and China initiated during the Trump administration. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its GDP growth forecasts downward, signaling broader economic troubles.

Key Points:

• Impact of Tariffs: The Trump administration's imposition of high tariffs on Chinese goods has led to significant economic strain. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant acknowledged the unsustainable nature of triple-digit tariffs, hinting at potential de-escalation (01:03).

• IMF Predictions: The IMF has reduced its U.S. GDP growth forecast by nearly one percentage point, attributing the slowdown to increased costs for businesses and consumers due to tariffs. Pierre Olivier Gurinshaw, IMF’s chief economist, stated, “For the United States, the tariffs represent a supply shock that reduces productivity and output permanently and increases price pressures temporarily” (01:51).

• Business Struggles: Jonathan Silva, a Massachusetts businessman manufacturing high-end board games in China, described his company's predicament: “So we're in survival mode right now. It's really difficult overnight to be able to communicate to a consumer that what they expected to purchase at one price is now double in price or higher” (02:57). His company faces halted orders worth over $16 million due to the tariffs.

• Market Reactions: There are signs of possible policy shifts as Treasury Secretary Besant indicates a need to alleviate tariff pressures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged following these remarks, reflecting investor relief (03:35).

Notable Quote: Pierre Olivier Gurinshaw on tariff impact: “Growth prospects could immediately improve if countries ease from their current trade policy stance and promote a new clear and stable trade environment” (04:14).

Conclusion: While the IMF warns of a significant slowdown in global economic growth, recent indications from U.S. officials suggest a possible easing of trade tensions. This shift could benefit both American consumers and businesses, as well as global trade dynamics.

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2. Ukraine Peace Talks: U.S. and Europe at Odds

Overview: The second major story revolves around the fragile peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, with Western European nations seeking increased support for Ukraine while the U.S. pushes for a ceasefire that may require Ukraine to cede territory.

Key Points:

• Meeting in London: Senior officials from the U.S., Ukraine, France, and Germany are convening in London, hosted by British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, to discuss a potential ceasefire. The U.S. delegation is now led by retired General Keith Kellogg, rather than Secretary of State Marco Rubio or President Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff (05:15).

• Divergent Goals: European nations emphasize the necessity of supporting Ukraine to ensure Russia engages in negotiations on equal footing. In contrast, the U.S. administration is considering options that might include Ukraine recognizing Russian-held territories, a move Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has firmly rejected (05:15 - 06:10).

• Russian Stance: Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed openness to peace initiatives, though British Defense Secretary John Healey questioned the sincerity of recent Russian claims of a temporary ceasefire, as reported by Ukrainian sources (07:37 - 08:03).

• U.S. Role Unclear: The absence of key U.S. diplomats raises questions about the U.S. position—whether it aims to mediate or impose a peace framework. Zelensky has noted that proposed U.S. ideas have not been formally presented to his team, adding to the uncertainty of the negotiations' success (06:52 - 07:33).

Notable Quote: Willem Marx on peace talks uncertainty: “Pretty obscure, frankly” (07:37).

Conclusion: The peace talks between Russia and Ukraine remain uncertain, with significant differences between U.S. and European approaches. The absence of key U.S. figures and the Kremlin’s mixed signals further complicate the prospects for a lasting ceasefire.

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3. Pope Francis Lies in State: A Historic Funeral

Overview: The episode also covers the solemn lying in state of Pope Francis at St. Peter's Basilica, marking a significant moment for the Catholic community and global leaders alike. The funeral is expected to draw immense crowds and high-profile attendees, signaling Pope Francis's widespread influence.

Key Points:

• Public Tributes: Mourners have lined up early to pay their respects as Pope Francis lies in an open casket. Margarita Harvey from El Salvador expressed her heartfelt condolences: “I want to see him alive. I would love to at least see his body, but I'm praying for him. My soul is with him” (08:25 - 09:05).

• Unique Burial Arrangements: Unlike tradition, Pope Francis is lying in a single wooden casket at ground level rather than in the Vatican grottoes. He will be buried at the Basilica of St. Mary Major, reflecting his commitment to simplicity and connection with ordinary people (09:14 - 11:33).

• Funeral Significance: The upcoming funeral on Saturday is poised to be a major event, potentially featuring sensitive diplomatic meetings. Notably, U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky are both confirmed to attend, offering opportunities for high-level interactions (09:58 - 10:43).

• Global Attendance: Over 100 foreign delegations and an estimated 200,000 people are expected to attend, posing significant logistical challenges and highlighting the global impact of Pope Francis's papacy (10:43).

Notable Quote: Ruben Martinez on the Pope's legacy: “I told him, no, this is a moment of hope. We're Christians. He told me this is about Pope Francis ascent to heaven” (10:53 - 11:33).

Conclusion: Pope Francis's lying in state and upcoming funeral represent a moment of both mourning and reflection on his lasting legacy. The event underscores his influence beyond the Catholic Church, attracting global leaders and millions of mourners worldwide.

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Final Thoughts: This episode of "Up First" provides a comprehensive overview of pressing global issues, from economic challenges due to trade tensions to the delicate diplomacy surrounding Ukraine and the profound farewell to Pope Francis. With insightful reporting and firsthand accounts, listeners are equipped with a thorough understanding of these pivotal events shaping the world.

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Notable Contributors:

• Guests: Scott Horsley (NPR), Willem Marx (Journalist, London), Ruth Sherlock (NPR)
• Business Perspective: Jonathan Silva (Board Game Manufacturer, Massachusetts)
• Mourners: Margarita Harvey (El Salvador)

Production Credits: Edited by Raphael Nam, Kevin Drew, Rylan Barton, Arzu Rezvani, Janaya Williams. Produced by Ziad Buch, Nia Dumas, Christopher Thomas. Engineering support by Damien Herring. Technical director Carly Strange.

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Transcript

[Steve Inskeep]

A Massachusetts man runs a business making high end board games in China, or rather he did.

[Jonathan Silva]

So we're in survival mode right now.

[Emmy Martinez]

What's the Trump administration doing to avoid the economic damage of the president's trade war?

[Steve Inskeep]

I'm Steve Inskeep with a Martinez, and this is up first from NPR News. Western European nations want more support for Ukraine. They're meeting today in London as the US Pushes for a ceasefire and Russia's invasion. How much territory is the United States pressing Ukraine to give up?

[Emmy Martinez]

And mourners lined up before dawn at St. Peter's Basilica to visit Pope Francis as he lies in state and pay their final respects.

[Margarita Harvey]

I want to see him alive. I would love to at least see his body, but I'm praying for him. My soul is with him.

[Emmy Martinez]

Stay with us. We've got all the news you need to start your day. We don't know how the US Will get out of a trade war, but the Trump administration jolted markets yesterday just by admitting the problem.

[Steve Inskeep]

The treasury secretary told business leaders that the US And China need some way out of triple digit tariffs. Multiple forecasts are calling for sharply lower economic growth. The International Monetary Fund is the latest. It tracks the world economy and sees economic trouble for the globe.

[Emmy Martinez]

For more on what this means in the U.S. we're joined by NPR's Scott Horsley. So, Scott, I mean, the U.S. economy seemed to be chugging right along before the president launched his trade war. How does it look now?

[Scott Horsley]

Yeah, not so strong. The IMF lowered its forecast for GDP growth in the US by almost a full percentage point. As a result of that trade war, businesses and consumers in the US now have to pay an extra tax on almost everything we import. And the IMF's chief economist, Pierre Olivier Gurinshaw, says that's going to lead to higher inflation, at least in the short run, and slower economic growth.

[Pierre Olivier Gurinshaw]

For the United States, the tariffs represent a supply shock that reduces productivity and output permanently and increases price pressures temporarily.

[Scott Horsley]

Other countries are also taking a hit from Trump's tariffs. The IMF stopped short of predicting a global recession, but says it expects trade growth to slow sharply in the coming year.

[Emmy Martinez]

So what does this mean then for businesses here and also around the globe?

[Scott Horsley]

It means a lot of questions. You know, we started this month with the president imposing very high tariffs on goods from all around the world. Many of those tariffs have since been suspended, but most imports still face a tax of at least 10%. And of course, goods from China are facing tariffs of 145%. That has brought a lot of trade between the world's two biggest economies to a near standstill. I talked with Jonathan Silva, who runs a company in Massachusetts that manufactures high end board games in China. He's got three or four truckloads of Finnish games that are basically stranded now because of those triple digit tariffs. And his customers like Target and Costco have halted more than 16 million doll worth of orders in just the last couple of weeks.

[Jonathan Silva]

So we're in survival mode right now. It's really difficult overnight to be able to communicate to a consumer that what they expected to purchase at one price is now double in price or higher.

[Scott Horsley]

This is the time of year when Silva would ordinarily be placing orders with Chinese manufacturers for games to be delivered before next Christmas. Instead, those plans are stuck in tariff.

[Jonathan Silva]

Limbo, a 30 day hold right now, hoping that cooler heads prevail and we come to a number that allows us to continue on with business and to bring these great items to families to enjoy.

[Emmy Martinez]

So Silva mentioned their cooler heads. Scott, any sign of those cooler heads?

[Scott Horsley]

Well, possibly. As y'all mentioned, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant has emerged as kind of the administration's good cop on trade. And yesterday Bloomberg and others reported that Besant was telling investors he sees the current level of tariffs between the US And China as unsustainable and suggesting there could be some de escalation. That was welcome news on Wall street where the Dow Jones Industrial average surged. More than 1,000. Markets were also probably relieved that Trump said after the closing bell yesterday that he has no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. As big a drag as this trade war is for the global economy, the IIF's Currentia says it doesn't have to be that way.

[Pierre Olivier Gurinshaw]

Growth prospects could immediately improve if countries ease from their current trade policy stance and promote a new clear and stable trade environment.

[Scott Horsley]

That'd be good not only for businesses and consumers in the US who want to buy stuff from China, but for American farmers and factories that want to sell their products around the world.

[Emmy Martinez]

All right, that's NPR's Scott Horsley. Scott, thanks a lot.

[Scott Horsley]

You're welcome.

[Emmy Martinez]

Senior officials from several countries will meet in London today to talk of a possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

[Steve Inskeep]

These talks will include the United States, but not the top diplomat. It will no longer involve Secretary of State Marco Rubio nor President Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff. The U.S. you will recall, has wanted to go its own way in brokering a ceasefire, while Europeans have focused more on supporting Ukraine. And the Europeans take the lead in the meeting today.

[Emmy Martinez]

All right, joining us now to share some of the details about this meeting is journalist Willem Marx in London. So, Willem, who's hosting, who's taking part, and what's the goal here?

[Willem Marx]

Well, the talks will be hosted by the British Foreign Secretary, David Lammy. They'll include officials from the U.S. ukraine, France, Germany. The most senior U.S. official attending now will be President Trump's envoy for Ukraine, retired General Keith Kellogg. And really at the heart of these talks will be an attempt to knit together the sometimes kind of disparate European and American visions for how a peace roadmap could be built. The Europeans have for the last couple of months continued to really insist that support for Ukraine, whether that's military, political or economic, is going to be crucial to ensure that Russian President Vladimir Putin is forced to negotiate on more equal terms, shall we say. But members of the US Administration have been briefing the media over the past few days that there are now options on the table, at least from their perspective. That would include the recognition by Ukraine of territory currently held by the invaders, Russia.

[Emmy Martinez]

Okay, now how have Ukrainians responded to that?

[Willem Marx]

Well, not well, as you might imagine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly ruled out the possibility that Ukraine would, for instance, recognize, let's say, the Crimean peninsula or parts of eastern Ukraine as Russian territory. Some of those were first annexed back in 2014. But there have also been some pretty surprising recent statements out of Moscow. Meanwhile, with President Putin saying on Russian state TV he'd always looked positively on any peace initiatives and he hoped Ukrainian leaders would do the same. The Kremlin's chief spokesperson said those comments from the Russian president indicated a willingness to re engage in direct talks with Ukraine about, at the very least, ending strikes on civilian targets.

[Emmy Martinez]

Okay, so then what's the United States role in all of this?

[Willem Marx]

Well, you know, the absence of Secretary of State Rubio seems significant. Just last week in Paris, he'd said the Americans wanted discussions to move forward within days, otherwise there was a possibility the US Would move on. Steve Witkoff, the White House has said, will be traveling to Moscow, not to London this week for a fourth face to face meeting with Putin. And meanwhile, President Zelensky said that none of the potential ideas the US Administration has been floating in the media have actually been formally shared with him or his team. And so it's kind of unclear whether the US Is trying to stand between these two warring parties as a mediator might, or instead to sort of create a peace framework almost unilaterally that Russia and Ukraine would be asked to simply accept.

[Emmy Martinez]

So if all that's unclear, then how clear are the chances of peace looking right now?

[Willem Marx]

Well, pretty obscure, frankly. President Putin's called the unilateral temporary ceasefire, you might remember on Saturday evening for the entirety of the Easter weekend. But Britain's Defence Secretary, John Healey told Parliament here in London yesterday that British military intelligence indicated there'd been no let up whatsoever in those attacks over the Easter weekend. The Ukrainians cried foul and said there had been no ceasefire from Russia. It had simply been a Russian propaganda exercise.

[Emmy Martinez]

All right. That's journalist Villa Marx in London. Thank you very much.

[Willem Marx]

Thank.

[Emmy Martinez]

The body of Pope Francis was moved this morning to lie in state in an open casket at St. Peter's Basilica.

[Steve Inskeep]

A choir sang and cardinals chanted in Latin as Pope Francis body was carried in a red velvet lined open casket for three days. Mourners will be able to pay their respects. His funeral will be on Saturday and hundreds of thousands of people are expected to attend.

[Emmy Martinez]

NPR's Ruth Sherlock joins us now from St. Peter's Square. Ruth, what's it like where you are right now?

[Ruth Sherlock]

Well, people are waiting in the long snaking line around the Vatican. Some are holding umbrellas to shield from the sun as they wait to pay their final respects to Pope Francis as he lies in state. I spoke with Margarita Harvey from El Salvador, has been waiting since a little after dawn, and she says it was always her dream to see the pope.

[Margarita Harvey]

I want to see him alive, but I would love to at least see his body. But I'm praying for him. My soul is with him.

[Ruth Sherlock]

Francis is lying in a single wooden casket rather than the three nested coffins that's been traditional of previous pope burials. And the coffin at St. Peter's Basilica is facing the church pews at ground level, not raised up. And this is typical of his papacy of trying to keep a little of the ordinary even in this very extraordinary job. Francis liked people and you can see that in how he moved through the crowds in this very square this past Easter Sunday. Just the day before he died, he was in his pope mobile without the bulletproof glass, hugging members of the public. The Vatican now says Francis was so weak that he'd actually worried about whether he could manage this. But afterwards, he reportedly told his personal health care assistant, thank you for bringing me back to the square.

[Emmy Martinez]

Now the funerals on Saturday seems like it's shaping up to be quite a big, big event.

[Ruth Sherlock]

That's right. You know, this has the potential to be an important political moment, too. There may be some sensitive meetings that could happen on sidelines. President Trump has confirmed he will attend, as will the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, which sets up the potential for them to meet for the first time since those tense public exchanges at the White House in March. This is going to be Trump's first foreign trip of his second term and the first time he's in the same space as other key leaders, like European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, for example, since the first time since he announced those controversial tariffs. The Italian government says over 100 foreign delegations are coming and that, like you said, some 200,000 people may attend.

[Emmy Martinez]

Yeah, 200,000 people. I mean, that sounds like a major logistical challenge in this funeral. Pope Francis is also breaking with tradition in where he's choosing to be buried. Tell us about that exactly.

[Ruth Sherlock]

Well, popes are traditionally buried here in the Vatican grottoes beneath St. Peter's Basilica. But Francis has chosen to be laid to rest outside the Vatican at the church in an immigrant area of Rome, the Basilica of St. Mary Major, where he'd go to pray to the icon of the Virgin Mary before and after each trip out of Rome. I spoke with Ruben Martinez, a Spanish priest who'd arrived there to pay his respects to Francis. He's saying, you know, another journalist asked me if this is a sad moment, and I told him, no, this is a moment of hope. We're Christians. He told me this is about Pope Francis ascent to heaven.

[Emmy Martinez]

All right. That's NPR's Ruth Sherlock at St. Peter's Square. Ruth, thank you very much for all the details.

[Ruth Sherlock]

Thank you so much.

[Emmy Martinez]

And that's up first for Wednesday, April 23rd. I'm Emmy Martinez.

[Steve Inskeep]

And I'm Steve Inskeep. Your next listen is CONSIDER THIS from NPR News. We HEAR IT up first, give you three big stories of the day. And consider this dives into a single news story and what it means to you. Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Emmy Martinez]

Today's episode of up first was edited by Raphael Nam, Kevin Drew, Rylan Barton, Arzu Rezvani, and also Janaya Williams. It was produced by Ziad Buch, Nia Dumas and Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Damien Herring. And our technical director is Carly Strange. Join us again tomorrow.