Up First from NPR – April 23, 2025

NPR's "Up First" delivers the three biggest stories of the day with in-depth reporting and analysis. In this episode, hosts Emmy Martinez and Steve Inskeep cover the dimming global economic forecast amid the U.S.-China trade war, ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and the lying in state of Pope Francis.

1. Global Economic Forecast Dims Amid U.S.-China Trade War

Overview: The episode opens with a focus on the deteriorating global economic outlook, primarily driven by the ongoing trade war between the United States and China initiated during the Trump administration. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its GDP growth forecasts downward, signaling broader economic troubles.

Key Points:

• Impact of Tariffs: The Trump administration's imposition of high tariffs on Chinese goods has led to significant economic strain. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant acknowledged the unsustainable nature of triple-digit tariffs, hinting at potential de-escalation (01:03).

• IMF Predictions: The IMF has reduced its U.S. GDP growth forecast by nearly one percentage point, attributing the slowdown to increased costs for businesses and consumers due to tariffs. Pierre Olivier Gurinshaw, IMF’s chief economist, stated, “For the United States, the tariffs represent a supply shock that reduces productivity and output permanently and increases price pressures temporarily” (01:51).

• Business Struggles: Jonathan Silva, a Massachusetts businessman manufacturing high-end board games in China, described his company's predicament: “So we're in survival mode right now. It's really difficult overnight to be able to communicate to a consumer that what they expected to purchase at one price is now double in price or higher” (02:57). His company faces halted orders worth over $16 million due to the tariffs.

• Market Reactions: There are signs of possible policy shifts as Treasury Secretary Besant indicates a need to alleviate tariff pressures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged following these remarks, reflecting investor relief (03:35).

Notable Quote: Pierre Olivier Gurinshaw on tariff impact: “Growth prospects could immediately improve if countries ease from their current trade policy stance and promote a new clear and stable trade environment” (04:14).

Conclusion: While the IMF warns of a significant slowdown in global economic growth, recent indications from U.S. officials suggest a possible easing of trade tensions. This shift could benefit both American consumers and businesses, as well as global trade dynamics.

2. Ukraine Peace Talks: U.S. and Europe at Odds

Overview: The second major story revolves around the fragile peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, with Western European nations seeking increased support for Ukraine while the U.S. pushes for a ceasefire that may require Ukraine to cede territory.

Key Points:

• Meeting in London: Senior officials from the U.S., Ukraine, France, and Germany are convening in London, hosted by British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, to discuss a potential ceasefire. The U.S. delegation is now led by retired General Keith Kellogg, rather than Secretary of State Marco Rubio or President Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff (05:15).

• Divergent Goals: European nations emphasize the necessity of supporting Ukraine to ensure Russia engages in negotiations on equal footing. In contrast, the U.S. administration is considering options that might include Ukraine recognizing Russian-held territories, a move Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has firmly rejected (05:15 - 06:10).

• Russian Stance: Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed openness to peace initiatives, though British Defense Secretary John Healey questioned the sincerity of recent Russian claims of a temporary ceasefire, as reported by Ukrainian sources (07:37 - 08:03).

• U.S. Role Unclear: The absence of key U.S. diplomats raises questions about the U.S. position—whether it aims to mediate or impose a peace framework. Zelensky has noted that proposed U.S. ideas have not been formally presented to his team, adding to the uncertainty of the negotiations' success (06:52 - 07:33).

Notable Quote: Willem Marx on peace talks uncertainty: “Pretty obscure, frankly” (07:37).

Conclusion: The peace talks between Russia and Ukraine remain uncertain, with significant differences between U.S. and European approaches. The absence of key U.S. figures and the Kremlin’s mixed signals further complicate the prospects for a lasting ceasefire.

3. Pope Francis Lies in State: A Historic Funeral

Overview: The episode also covers the solemn lying in state of Pope Francis at St. Peter's Basilica, marking a significant moment for the Catholic community and global leaders alike. The funeral is expected to draw immense crowds and high-profile attendees, signaling Pope Francis's widespread influence.

Key Points:

• Public Tributes: Mourners have lined up early to pay their respects as Pope Francis lies in an open casket. Margarita Harvey from El Salvador expressed her heartfelt condolences: “I want to see him alive. I would love to at least see his body, but I'm praying for him. My soul is with him” (08:25 - 09:05).

• Unique Burial Arrangements: Unlike tradition, Pope Francis is lying in a single wooden casket at ground level rather than in the Vatican grottoes. He will be buried at the Basilica of St. Mary Major, reflecting his commitment to simplicity and connection with ordinary people (09:14 - 11:33).

• Funeral Significance: The upcoming funeral on Saturday is poised to be a major event, potentially featuring sensitive diplomatic meetings. Notably, U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky are both confirmed to attend, offering opportunities for high-level interactions (09:58 - 10:43).

• Global Attendance: Over 100 foreign delegations and an estimated 200,000 people are expected to attend, posing significant logistical challenges and highlighting the global impact of Pope Francis's papacy (10:43).

Notable Quote: Ruben Martinez on the Pope's legacy: “I told him, no, this is a moment of hope. We're Christians. He told me this is about Pope Francis ascent to heaven” (10:53 - 11:33).

Conclusion: Pope Francis's lying in state and upcoming funeral represent a moment of both mourning and reflection on his lasting legacy. The event underscores his influence beyond the Catholic Church, attracting global leaders and millions of mourners worldwide.

Final Thoughts: This episode of "Up First" provides a comprehensive overview of pressing global issues, from economic challenges due to trade tensions to the delicate diplomacy surrounding Ukraine and the profound farewell to Pope Francis. With insightful reporting and firsthand accounts, listeners are equipped with a thorough understanding of these pivotal events shaping the world.

Notable Contributors:

• Guests: Scott Horsley (NPR), Willem Marx (Journalist, London), Ruth Sherlock (NPR)
• Business Perspective: Jonathan Silva (Board Game Manufacturer, Massachusetts)
• Mourners: Margarita Harvey (El Salvador)

Production Credits: Edited by Raphael Nam, Kevin Drew, Rylan Barton, Arzu Rezvani, Janaya Williams. Produced by Ziad Buch, Nia Dumas, Christopher Thomas. Engineering support by Damien Herring. Technical director Carly Strange.

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