Up First: How Smaller Families are Changing the World

Date: November 2, 2025
Host: Ayesha Rascoe
Guests: Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann (NPR correspondents)
Theme: Exploring the global trend of shrinking families, its causes, impacts, and how societies are adapting to a world with fewer children.

Episode Overview

This episode of NPR’s Up First delves into a sweeping demographic shift: families around the world are having fewer children now than in past decades. The reporters unpack the causes behind these shifting family sizes, discuss the profound impacts on local communities and national economies, and explore how governments and individuals are responding. Through expert interviews from places like Greece, Finland, and rural America, the episode examines both personal choices and systemic consequences of declining birth rates.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Introduction: Setting the Stage

• Dramatic Decline: The average woman now has about half as many children as in the 1970s.
• Personal Story: Ashley Ivancho (a mother in upstate New York) shares why she chose to have only one child (00:33).
  • "I don't need another one. I don't want another one. I love having only one child. It is, I think, a very elegant choice because I still feel like I have balance in my life."

Why Are Families Shrinking?

• Rural Decline: Brian Mann observes aging, shrinking small towns—an early indicator of a broader trend (02:50).
  • "Nationwide, American women had between three and four kids, typically in the 1960s when I was born. Now it's an average of one to two… In half the counties in the US now, older people outnumber kids." (03:18)
• Global Shift: This is happening everywhere, not just in the US – NPR reporters are investigating worldwide.

Defining the Birth Rate Decline (05:18)

• Total Fertility Rate: The key metric, reflecting the average number of children per woman.
  • Global fertility has dropped dramatically — from 5 to 2.2, with many regions below “replacement rate” (05:28).

Why the Decline?

• Economic Factors: The cost of raising children and financial insecurity are major deterrents, but not the only reasons.
  • Brian Mann: "Money is definitely a big part of this… but what's really fascinating is that it's happening even in places where standards of living are really high." (06:49)
• Cultural Shifts: New attitudes toward family and work, especially among women, shape the decision to have fewer kids.
  • Martina Yopo Diaz (Sociologist, Santiago’s Catholic University): "All key social systems… are based on the principle that there will be new generations to replace the old ones. But now we see that that principle is no longer something that we can… you know, take as given." (07:35)
• Community Impact: In Greece, shrinking communities feel the effects — fewer children, school closings, businesses shuttering (07:49).

Economic and Policy Impacts

• Vicious Spiral: Fewer children lead to school and business closures, then reduced job opportunities and further outflow (08:54).
  • Sarah McCammon: "You get into sort of this vicious spiral… and it just gets worse and worse over time." (08:54)
• Government Responses: Greece, for example, offers billions in tax incentives to encourage childbearing.
  • Greek Finance Minister: "This is an existential problem for us… we need to create the positive tailwinds to counter the negative headwinds of the effects of our demographic curve." (09:28)
• Not Isolated: This is happening across Europe, East Asia, the Americas, and beyond (09:45).

Social and Emotional Factors

• Loneliness Epidemic: Many young people struggle to find partners, compounding the trend (11:27).
  • Anna Rotkirch (Family Federation of Finland): "The overwhelming majority… would like to have a steady committed partnership… I want a small house with a dog and a garden and a spouse and three children. And it really breaks my heart because I'm like, that's not going to happen if the world goes on like it's now." (12:32)
• Changing Relationship Expectations: Higher education and autonomy make young adults, especially women, less willing to settle.
  • Larisa Rudolfsson (Single mother by choice, Finland): "Women also realize that they can earn, and why put up with something that they don't want to put up?" (13:34)

Gender Roles and Blame

• Blame on Women?: The episode explores the narrative that women prioritizing careers is to blame for lower birth rates; guests push back on this notion (14:51).
  • Alexandra Trigaki (Economic demographer, Greece): "Women changed, but nothing else did. Women changed roles, but no one else did… So part of the roles that used to be covered by women were left uncovered. And when that happens… it's the size of the family that is affected." (15:42)
  • Brian Mann: "They don't accept this idea of being blamed for smaller families. They're pretty angry about it… they want to be left alone to make smart, private, personal decisions." (16:23)

Changing Assumptions

• No Longer Expected: Younger generations don't assume parenthood as a given.
  • Anselmi Oramo (28, Helsinki): "I don't want my partner to drop her life for our children… I think that everybody can have their own kind of relationship and have the roles that they want." (17:51)

Political & Policy Response in the US

• Political Discourse: The U.S. right emphasizes boosting birth rates (“fertilization president,” expanded child tax credits, IVF support) but policies are limited in scope (18:24).
  • "Critics say that none of these measures really do much in the scheme of things to help families, given just the huge costs involved in raising a child." (19:37)

Is This Really a 'Problem'?

• Profound Transition, Not Just a Problem:
  • Brian Mann: "This is huge, right? This is a big population shift… Not so much a problem, Aisha, but a dramatic change in the way we humans are living… but it also means for the economy and a lot of social systems… we're going to have to adapt and make some big changes." (19:54)
  • Some want more kids but don't have them; policy could help close that gap (21:01).

Adaptation and the Future

• Government Efforts Globally: Incentives, support schemes, and private sector interventions are being tried, but results are limited.
  • Sarah McCammon: "A lot of our research suggests it's really hard to address this through policy…I'm curious about whether or not any of these efforts actually result in a significant increase in birth rate." (21:38)
• Broader Societal Adjustments: May include more automation, later retirement, rethinking care for the elderly, etc. (22:15).
  • "This family shift is pretty deeply rooted and the rest of us are going to have to start adapting what the rest of the economy and society look like, and we're just still taking baby steps toward that now." (22:15)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Ashley Ivancho (00:33):
  "I love having only one child. It is, I think, a very elegant choice because I still feel like I have balance in my life."

• Jeremy Evans (03:18):
  "In half the counties in the US now, are older people outnumber kids."

• Martina Yopo Diaz (07:35):
  "All key social systems... are based on the principle that there will be new generations to replace the old ones. But now we see that that principle is no longer something that we can... you know, take as given."

• Greek Finance Minister (09:28):
  "This is an existential problem for us. And we need to create the positive tailwinds to counter the negative headwinds of the effects of our demographic curve."

• Anna Rotkirch (12:32):
  "It really breaks my heart because I'm like, that's not going to happen if the world goes on like it's now. But this is what they say they want."

• Larisa Rudolfsson (13:34):
  "Women also realize that they can earn, and why put up with something that they don't want to put up?"

• Alexandra Trigaki (15:42):
  "Women changed, but nothing else did. Women changed roles, but no one else did, neither the society nor men... And when that happens… it's the size of the family that is affected."

• Brian Mann (16:23):
  "They don't accept this idea of being blamed for smaller families. They're pretty angry about it... They're happy about their lives. In many cases, it feels good to them."

• Anselmi Oramo (17:51):
  "I don't want my partner to drop her life for our children... everybody can have their own kind of relationship and have the roles that they want in their own relationships."

• Brian Mann (19:54):
  "This is huge, right? This is a big population shift… but it also means for the economy and a lot of social systems… we're going to have to adapt and make some big changes."

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:33 — Ashley Ivancho's personal story (one child family)
• 02:50 — Brian Mann on rural and national population trends
• 05:28 — Explanation of 'declining birth rate' and fertility rate
• 06:49 — Financial and cultural reasons for birth rate decline
• 07:35 — Sociologist perspective on societal impact
• 08:54 — Economic spiral of declining populations in Greece
• 09:28 — Greek government's existential concerns
• 11:27 — Loneliness and its impact, case study Finland
• 12:32 — Finnish teens still hope for 'traditional' families
• 13:34 — Changing women's roles and autonomy
• 15:42 — Gender roles and blame—expert analysis
• 17:51 — Changing expectations for men and relationships
• 18:24 — U.S. policies and political rhetoric
• 19:54 — Framing the global population shift as a transition, not just a problem
• 21:38 — Examples of global government incentives, policy challenges
• 22:15 — Societal adaptation and economic innovations

Tone & Takeaway

The conversation is informed, frank, and occasionally personal, blending data, policy, and intimate stories. There’s a clear recognition of both the positive (greater choice, autonomy) and the challenges (economic strain, changing societal structures). The episode emphasizes that, while this is a deeply personal issue, it has ramifications that ripple outward to economies, pension systems, and entire communities—with no easy solutions or precedents.

Final Reflection by Ayesha Roscoe (22:59):
"It's a profoundly personal issue, but it's one that has huge impact implications for the rest of the world. And I, I just thank you both for looking into it."