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Aisha Roscoe
Aisha.
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I'm Aisha Roscoe, and this is a Sunday STORY from Up first, where we go beyond the news of the day to bring you one big story. You may have caught wind of this already, but families aren't having as many kids as they used to, not just here in the US but around the world. In fact, researchers say the average woman is having half as many children now than they did in the 1970s. Ashley Ivancho is a mom in upstate New York who decided one child is enough for her family.
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Sarah McCammon
I don't need another one. I don't want another one. I love having only one child. It is, I think, a very elegant choice because I still feel like I have balance in my life.
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Aisha Roscoe
Why are so many families making this choice, and what exactly does it mean for our future? NPR has launched a new reporting series called Population How Smaller Families Are Changing the World. World. We're bringing you the stories of families that are making untraditional choices, communities that are growing faster than they're growing, and schools whose classes are getting smaller and smaller every year. You can find all their reporting@npr.org populationshift when we come back, we'll get some insight from the team that's taking the lead on this series. NPR Sarah McCammon and Brian Mann.
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Aisha Roscoe
So well, hi to you both. Hi, Sarah. Hi, Brian.
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Brian Mann
Hey, thanks for having us.
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Aisha Roscoe
So how did you first encounter this story? Like what? What made you do some deep reporting on it?
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Brian Mann
You know, Aisha, I woke up to this kind of slowly. I've lived in small towns most of my life. And I've seen them kind of dwindling. You know, the population's getting older. And I started to realize this wasn't just happening in rural America. It's happening everywhere. Nationwide, American women had between three and four kids, typically in the 1960s when I was born. Now it's an average of one to two kids, and that's not enough to maintain a stable population. So we started asking questions about this, why this is happening and what it might mean. Let me just introduce you to one voice. This is Jeremy Evans. He works on economic development in tiny little Franklin county in upstate New York. He says now population is his biggest worry. Our population will continue to decline. More worrisome to us is the decline in population of younger people. And what's amazing, Aisha, is that this is happening all over the country. In half the counties in the US now, are older people outnumber kids.
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Sarah McCammon
You know, I've also covered rural decline. I started my career in public radio in Nebraska and Iowa, and so I'd seen some of these trends, you know, then I covered conservative politics and the abortion debate for a long time. So when Brian came to me looking at some of this data he'd been digging into, I was absolutely fascinated, both from the standpoint of how communities are changing and the choices that people are making. It feels like a really seismic shift in the way that people live. And I wanted to understand it better. And, you know, I'll just share a personal story. I remember back when I was pregnant with my second child, who's now in high school. I was attending a conference for environmental journalists. And I went to this session that was talking about the impact of overpopulation on the planet? And I raised my hand, visibly pregnant, and I asked, based on the research, what's an ideal number of kids for people to be having in this world? And everyone seemed uncomfortable with the question. Nobody would really give me a clear answer. But I've just been fascinated with these really personal and fraught and intimate questions ever since because they also have a really big impact on the way we live and on the way that, you know, economies work.
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Brian Mann
Yeah. And this curiosity about the data, but also about what we've been seeing in our personal lives, got us started on this journey, which led to NPR and our member stations sending reporters all over the world to Sub Saharan Africa, to East Asia, Europe, all across the US to look at why families are getting smaller, what it means, and how we may have to adapt.
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Aisha Roscoe
I want to clear up some of the language before we dive into the specifics, what exactly do we mean when we talk about a declining birth rate?
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Brian Mann
Yeah. So a really basic measure that scientists use looking at this is a thing called total fertility rate. That's a technical term, and that's the estimate of how many children the average woman in a country or on the planet will have in their lifetimes. And it used to be really high. Just a few decades ago, the average globally was five children per woman. Now globally, it's dropped to 2.2. Right. That's really low, comparatively. And in the United States and many countries, it's dropped even lower down below what people call the replacement rate. That means we're having too few children to maintain a stable population. And so slowly, that all adds up to populations aging and eventually declining.
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Aisha Roscoe
I'm a single mother of three, and I'm blessed to be able to take care of them, but they cost a lot of money. But I love them. They great. But there are people out there who just wouldn't be able to financially afford it. Right. Like how much of this decline that we're seeing in birth rates just boils down to people feeling like, I cannot afford to have kids or to have more than one or two.
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Brian Mann
Yeah. Money is definitely a big part of this. We hear this over and over from women. It's expensive. It's hard to raise kids. Young families say the same things. But what's really fascinating is that it's happening even in places where standards of living are really high and incomes are really high, and there's a lot of support for families. And so really, the fascinating piece here is that for sure, money is a part of it. But there also seems to be some kind of a cultural shift that's really, really profound. I want to introduce another voice. This is Martina Yopo Diaz, who's a sociologist at Santiago's Catholic University.
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Sarah McCammon
All key social systems, from the economy to the labor market to pensions, to care, are based on the principle that there will be new generations to replace the old ones. But now we see that that principle.
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Aisha Roscoe
Is no longer something that we can.
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Sarah McCammon
You know, take as given. And we wanted to really get a sense of what this looks like on the ground. I went to a place where the impact of fewer babies being born is felt especially intensely in Greece. The population is aging, and it's also shrinking as younger people move away, and those who stay have fewer kids. And I went to a couple of small islands where there are fewer and fewer children. I met a girl named Georgia and Gramaticu. She's 16, and she lives on this tiny island in the eastern Aegean Sea. She said she doesn't really see a future for herself there.
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Various Interviewees
It's very nice here and it's peaceful, but I don't see myself living here in the future because there aren't many opportunities. Little by little, the small shops are closing down. There are fewer and fewer people.
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Sarah McCammon
And this is a concern for the Greek government and also for local officials.
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Aisha Roscoe
Can you tell me more about how these declining birth rates are impacting local and national economies?
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Sarah McCammon
Well, the big worry that I hear is that you get into sort of this vicious spiral where schools close down, people move away, businesses close, and it just gets worse and worse over time. You know, you get young people leaving, having fewer kids and it's harder to find workers, and eventually there's just nothing left. The Greek government is so worried about it that they just recently rolled out a package of tax incentives worth several billion dollars designed to encourage younger Greeks to have children. I recently spoke with the Greek finance minister, Kyriakos Pyrkakis.
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Brian Mann
This is an existential problem for us.
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Aisha Roscoe
It's an existential challenge for us.
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Brian Mann
And we need to create the positive tailwinds to counter the negative headwinds of the effects of our demographic curve.
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Sarah McCammon
And he told me they're focusing especially with some of these tax incentives on rural areas and islands.
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Brian Mann
And I think what's really important here, Aisha, is that what's happening in Greece is happening all over the world. This is across Europe, it's across East Asia, it's in South America, and even here in North America. So we're going to be seeing schools closing, aging populations in more and more parts of the planet.
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Aisha Roscoe
Kids are expensive. After the break, Sarah and Brian dig into another big reason people aren't having as many kids.
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Aisha Roscoe
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Various Interviewees
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Aisha Roscoe
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A lot of young people are struggling to find partners right now, and there's some older people too. There's really this epidemic of loneliness in many countries. I would imagine that that's affecting decisions about parenting.
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Sarah McCammon
Right? Like Brian mentioned, it's not just about money. Some of the wealthiest countries in the world are seeing some of the biggest declines. I went to Finland as well, because that's a country that's known for its generous family leave. There's paid time off for both mothers and fathers, heavily subsidized childcare, free health care and so on. And Finland has seen its birth rate drop by about a third since 2010. And I wanted to know why. I talked to Anna Rothkirt. She's a researcher at the Family Federation of Finland and she prepared a report for the Finnish government. Looking at all of this, she says there are a lot of factors in play. It's definitely not just one, but one of the issues she sees is that younger people are having a harder time forming stable relationships that lead to families, even if that's what they say they want.
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Various Interviewees
We see in Finland that the overwhelming majority also of today's young adults would like to have a steady committed partnership. We go to schools, you talk to 17 year olds and we are like, you know, what would be your ideal family if you want a family at all? You know, I want a small house with a dog and a garden and a spouse and three children. And it really breaks my heart because I'm like, that's not going to happen if the world goes on like it's now. But this is what they say they want. And for us that's the starting point.
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Sarah McCammon
And this is something I heard at least anecdotally from people I met in Finland, especially women. The idea that finding a suitable stable partner is difficult sometimes even for those who'd like to have children. Larisa Rudolfsson is 48 and a single mom by choice. She was married until her 30s and she did not have children with her ex husband, but later decided she she wanted to become a mother and had two children in her 40s with the help of assisted reproductive technology. Here's what she says about the women she meets in similar situations.
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Various Interviewees
I think as women get more educated and we are like getting further and further from the traditional model that the man earns and woman takes care of the family at home. Women also realize that they can earn, and why put up with something that they don't want to put up?
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Sarah McCammon
So she said, you know, she'd like to have a suitable partner, but she hasn't found that person. And she says women have many more options today than they once did, and they are exercising those options.
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Aisha Roscoe
A lot of the talk around this issue, at least here in the US does focus on the changing expectation and roles of women in society. And my brother and I are always talking about this, and he says, you know, it's just, you know, facts. It's not his. His opinion. He says that women are kind of putting their careers ahead of families. But, you know, he's. He's not saying that's a bad thing. He's just saying that's a fact. But I do kind of feel like that puts a lot of the blame on women, like, and it takes two to tango. What are you hearing from the people that you're meeting?
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Sarah McCammon
I think that's a really important point, Ayesha. And the reality is that, you know, the world has changed, and women do, as we said, have more choices now. And that's both in terms of educational and career opportunities. Also, access to contraception. You know, that's a relatively new thing in terms of human history. Those two things have come together and meant that the landscape of options for women is really different. And also one thing I've heard from researchers is that, you know, for women to have more children, which often means taking more time out of the workforce, slowing down their careers, you know, the data suggests that women still do a disproportionate share of domestic labor that comes at an economic cost. Now that hits the entire family. And so it really has changed the calculus. I talked to an economic demographer in Greece named Alexandra Trigaki, and here's what she said about the way that women are making decisions.
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Various Interviewees
Women changed, but nothing else did. Women changed roles, but no one else did, neither the society nor men. So part of the roles that used to be covered by women were left uncovered. And when that happens, obviously, it's the size of the family that is that is affected, you know.
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Sarah McCammon
And she acknowledged that younger generations are starting to adapt to some extent, that gender roles are shifting in response to these economic realities and social changes. But still, many women feel they just don't have the capacity to manage larger families alongside everything else that women do today.
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Brian Mann
And I think, Aisha, one of the things I'm hearing from a lot of the women and men who I'm talking to, the fathers or the people considering fatherhood is they don't accept this idea of being blamed for smaller families. They're pretty angry about it. In many cases, they want to be left alone to make smart, private, personal decisions. They're happy about their lives. In many cases, it feels good to them. And so I think all around the world there are these efforts to boost birth rates and to convince families to have more kids. And what I'm hearing from a lot of people is, leave us alone. We got this. We're doing what feels right to us and to our families. And so that narrative that women who have fewer kids are doing something wrong, that's not a popular view among most of the families I've been talking to.
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Sarah McCammon
And one of the things we've heard is that both younger men and women, they just imagine their lives differently. Having kids is not assumed the way that maybe it once was for a lot of people. And younger generations do understand that there's a new dynamic in play when it comes to gender roles. In Finland, I talked to Anselmi Oramo. He's a 28 year old student in Helsinki. He's engaged to be married and wants children eventually, once he's more financially secure. But he said it's important to him that they be in a place financially where they can afford household help, for instance, so that they can both have their careers and time with their children.
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Brian Mann
Because I don't want my partner to drop her life for our children in order to me to basically be the provider or whatever. I don't want that. I think that everybody can have their own kind of relationship and have the roles that they want in their own relationships. That's not my business. But I don't want to push my partner or basically leave myself, the traditional model, into action.
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Sarah McCammon
But he said he's still figuring out how to navigate that and he's not exactly sure how that will work for his future family.
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Aisha Roscoe
Well, how is the current administration talking about this issue in the US what are they proposing should be done about it?
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Sarah McCammon
Well, this question of whether or not Americans are having enough children has become a major theme on the political right. As you know, Vice President Vance has said he wants more babies to be born in America. Alabama Senator Katie Britt has described the Republican Party as the party of parents. Several months ago, you may remember, President Trump himself promised to be the fertilization president. And he said during the campaign last year that he would expand access to fertility treatments like ivf. Now, in terms of actual policy, the administration has taken fairly modest action so far. That massive spending bill that was passed over the summer did include an expanded child tax credit and a temporary program to give $1,000 investment accounts to babies born while Trump is in office. He also recently announced a deal to lower the costs of some IVF drugs. But, Aisha, critics say that none of these measures really do much in the scheme of things to help families, given just the huge costs involved in raising a child.
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Aisha Roscoe
One thing you think about is, like, is this really a problem? Like. Like, is this something I should be worried about? Okay, well, eventually, maybe nothing will be left, but maybe that's what the Lord int.
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Brian Mann
Yeah, it's really a great question, but here's what I think I've learned over the months and months we've been reporting on this. This is huge, right? This is a big population shift. China is going to lose 200 million workers very quickly. Italy is getting so old so fast, the country's scrambling to maintain its pension system. Even here in the US There are questions about how we're going to pay for things like Social Security and Medicare as we get older. So it's a lot. And what's really interesting is that Lant Pritchett, an economist at the London School of Economics, says there's so much population change happening so fast, it's not clear how it's all gonna work. Hard to tell what's gonna happen when things that have never happened before happen. We just don't have any example of countries doing this successfully. So not so much a problem, Aisha, but a dramatic change in the way we humans are living. For a lot of women and couples, it's a really positive change. They're living freer, more prospero. But it also means for the economy and a lot of social systems, like how we care for the elderly, we're going to have to adapt and make some big changes.
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Sarah McCammon
Some of the researchers I talked to believe that there is a gap between the number of children people say they want and the number that they actually have. They're not having as many kids as they might want. And to the extent that's true, you know, researchers across the ideological spectrum tell me if there are policies that can help people get from where they want to be to where they are. If that means having another child, they see those kinds of policy ideas as a good thing.
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Aisha Roscoe
So, looking forward, like, on a practical level, what are we actually seeing governments or communities do to prepare for or adapt to these changes?
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Sarah McCammon
Well, governments are concerned about this, and they're trying a number of different things. We mentioned Greece has put through some tax incentives to encourage families to have more kids if they want them to. Finland's government recently wrapped up a committee looking at this issue and suggested a bunch of possible solutions. And there are also some private sector efforts in places like Greece to spur economic development in smaller communities and help young parents pay for things like medical care. But the reality is that a lot of our research suggests it's really hard to address this through policy. And so, you know, one thing I'll be curious about is whether or not any of these efforts actually result in a significant increase in birth rate.
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Brian Mann
Yeah. And I think the other piece that's really going to be interesting, while there are these efforts to have families stabilize or maybe even grow a little bit, there's a question about how countries can prepare themselves for an aging and eventually dwindling population. It may mean more use of AI, more automation in factories. It may mean we have to extend retirement age a little bit. So what the economists and other researchers I've been talking to say is that this family shift is pretty deeply rooted and the rest of us are going to have to start adapting what the rest of the economy and society look like, and we're just still taking baby steps toward that now.
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Aisha Roscoe
Well, it sounds like another huge problem that we're all going to have to face at some point. It's a profoundly personal issue, but it's one that has huge impact implications for the rest of the world. And I, I just thank you both for looking into it.
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Sarah McCammon
Absolutely. Thanks, Aisha.
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Brian Mann
Thanks for the great conversation.
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Aisha Roscoe
That's NPR correspondents Brian mann and Sarah McCammon. And for more of their reporting, go to our website@npr.org populationshift the series is called Population Shift, How Smaller Families Are Changing the World. This episode was was produced by Michelle Aslam and edited by Liana Simstrom and Irene Noguchi. Special thanks to Andrea De Leon and Megan Pratts mastering by Ko Takasugi Chernovin. The Sunday Story team includes Andrew Mambo, Justine Yan and Jenny Schmidt. Thomas Coltrane is our intern. I'm Aisha. Roscoe. Up first is back tomorrow with all the news you need to start your week. Until then, have a great rest of your week weekend.
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