India And Pakistan Latest, Libya Deportations, The Fed And Interest Rates

Summary

Up First from NPR – May 8, 2025

Hosts: Leila Fadel and Steve Inskeep

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1. India and Pakistan Latest: Escalating Tensions Over Drone Strikes

The longstanding Cold War between nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan has taken a perilous turn with recent military confrontations. Early in the morning, Pakistan's second-largest city, Lahore, experienced multiple explosions as a response to Indian airstrikes. Pakistan's military spokesman, Lieutenant General Ahmad Sharif, announced that Pakistan had successfully shot down drones carrying out these attacks.

Steve Inskeep (00:02): "Pakistan says it shot down drones over some of its major cities. It's the aftermath of Indian airstrikes."

These Indian military actions are reportedly the most extensive in over half a century, purportedly in retaliation for terrorist attacks that Pakistan denies involvement in. The tension has been exacerbated by the Hindu nationalist Indian government's vow of retribution following a militant attack in late April, which killed 26 tourists.

Ajay Shukla (04:00): "This naked aggression continues and the armed forces are on high degree of alert and neutralizing them as we speak. This is a serious, serious provocation."

NPR's Diya Hadid, reporting from Mumbai, highlighted that Pakistan intercepted approximately 25 Israeli-made drones, targeting key population centers, including Karachi and Rawalpindi—the latter housing Pakistan's military headquarters. While Pakistan claims to have neutralized almost all drones, one managed to strike an airport in Lahore, resulting in casualties.

Diya Hadid (03:26): "Sharif says they shot down all the drones except for one that targeted an old airport in Lahore. He says four military personnel were injured and one civilian killed."

Despite initial signals from both nations indicating a reluctance to escalate, recent developments suggest a widening rift with the potential for broader conflict.

Diya Hadid (05:28): "Any new development here changes all calculations... There is absolutely scope for something bigger."

The situation remains volatile, with both countries' security advisories in continuous dialogue, yet the recent drone incident threatens to derail any prospects for de-escalation.

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2. Libya Deportations: The Trump Administration's Controversial Move

In a significant policy shift, the Trump administration announced plans to deport migrants removed from the United States to Libya, marking a departure from existing agreements with Mexico and El Salvador. This decision has sparked legal battles and raised humanitarian concerns.

Steve Inskeep (00:14): "President Trump's administration plans to send migrants removed from the United States to Libya."

Immigration reporter Ximena Ostillo detailed that this move aims to expand deportation capacity amidst approximately 1.4 million pending removal orders. However, Libya's ongoing turmoil—divided between a UN-backed government in the west and a militaristic stronghold in the east—casts doubt on its suitability as a deportation destination.

Ximena Ostillo (08:23): "Libya has been wrestling with violence and armed conflict since the civil war that toppled Moab almost 15 years ago. The country is still in turmoil."

Legal challenges have already emerged, with Massachusetts judges issuing injunctions to block the expulsions to third countries like Libya. These courts have emphasized the need for migrants to have adequate time to contest their removals, thereby limiting the administration's immediate capacity to implement the deportation plan.

Ximena Ostillo (07:25): "A judge in Massachusetts already issued an injunction blocking the Homeland Security Department from removing migrants to these third countries."

The administration's strategy appears to focus on relocating migrants further away to reduce the likelihood of border re-crossings, a tactic previously employed with El Salvador. However, the feasibility of such agreements is questionable, given Libya's rejection of the plan and its poor human rights record.

Ximena Ostillo (09:02): "Trump's goal is to increase the pace of deportations... the administration is aiming to make these inroads with these kind of, quote, third party countries that can take in deportees."

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3. The Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Amid Economic Uncertainty

In economic news, the Federal Reserve has decided to maintain current interest rates, citing the need to assess the impact of recent tariffs and ongoing trade tensions. This decision reflects the Fed's cautious approach in navigating the uncertain economic landscape shaped by President Trump's trade policies.

Steve Inskeep (10:20): "Policymakers at the Federal Reserve voted to hold short term interest rates steady for now."

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell discussed the implications of the administration's worldwide tariffs, emphasizing the uncertainty they bring to the economic outlook. While some tariffs have been rolled back, the long-term effects remain unclear.

Jerome Powell (10:47): "We're still waiting to see where the resulting waves wash up... it's not clear they're going to stick around."

Despite the Fed's inaction, public pressure persists, particularly from President Trump, who has vocally demanded lower interest rates to stimulate the economy. Powell, however, emphasized the Fed's independence in making decisions based on economic indicators rather than political pressure.

Jerome Powell (13:07): "Presidents often want lower rates to goose the economy... that's why the Fed was set up to be insulated from political pressure."

Economists like Scott Horsley interpret the Fed's decision as prudent, noting that despite heightened consumer anxiety over inflation and potential job losses, key economic indicators such as unemployment rates and job creation remain robust.

Scott Horsley (10:34): "People are feeling stress and concern, but unemployment hasn't gone up. Job creation is fine. Wages are in good shape."

The Fed will continue to monitor factors like inflation pressures and employment trends, with upcoming meetings in June and July providing further opportunities to adjust policies as necessary.

Jerome Powell (11:38): "They're watching for any sign of increased pressure on prices... or any weakening in the job market that could lead to higher unemployment."

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Conclusion:
Today's episode of Up First from NPR delved into significant international tensions between India and Pakistan, the controversial deportation policy targeting Libya, and the Federal Reserve's strategic decision to hold interest rates amid economic uncertainties. These stories highlight the complex interplay between geopolitical conflicts, immigration policies, and economic strategies shaping today's global landscape.

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This summary is based on the transcript provided and is intended to offer a comprehensive overview of the key discussions and insights from the May 8, 2025 episode of NPR's Up First.

Transcript

[Steve Inskeep]

Pakistan says it shot down drones over some of its major cities. It's the aftermath of Indian airstrikes.

[Leila Fadel]

How are two nuclear powers managing the latest confrontation in their generations long cold war?

[Steve Inskeep]

I'm Steve Inskeep with Leila Fadel. And this is up first from NPR News. President Trump's administration plans to send migrants removed from the United States to Libya. The US has deportation deals already with Mexico and El Salvador. So why another?

[Leila Fadel]

And the Federal Reserve says it will wait and see how the economy responds to higher tariffs, but interest rates will remain unchanged for now.

[Scott Horsley]

People are feeling stress and concern, but unemployment hasn't gone up. Job creation is fine. Wages are in good shape.

[Leila Fadel]

Stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day.

[Jimena Postillo]

Foreign this message comes from NPR sponsor Vanta. Whether you're a startup founder or a seasoned security professional, proving your commitment to security has never been more critical or more complex. Vanta automates compliance for SoC2, ISO 27001, HIPAA and more, helping you build customer trust. According to a recent IDC study, Vanta customers achieve over $500,000 per year in benefits. Go to vanta.com upfirst to meet with a Vanta expert about your business needs.

[Ximena Ostillo]

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[Leila Fadel]

Blasts heard over Pakistan's second largest city is the latest step in a generations long conflict in South Asia.

[Steve Inskeep]

This morning, residents in Pakistan's second largest city of Lahore were hearing explosions. Pakistan's military spokesman Lieutenant General Ahmad Sharif says Pakistan shot down Indian drones which he says were flying over major cities.

[Ajay Shukla]

This naked aggression continues and the armed forces are on high degree of alert and neutralizing them as we speak. This is a serious, serious provocation.

[Steve Inskeep]

Let's remember here, India launched multiple strikes against Pakistan on Tuesday. These were considered the most extensive Attacks that India has carried out in more than 50 years. India says it was responding to terror attacks last month that were launched out of Pakistani territory.

[Leila Fadel]

On the line with us is NPR's Dia Hadid. She's in Mumbai and covers both India and Pakistan. Good morning.

[Diya Hadid]

Good morning, Laila.

[Leila Fadel]

So, Diya, just bring us up to speed. What is happening today.

[Diya Hadid]

Right. Well, the Pakistani army spokesman, Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif, accused India of sending across 25 Israeli made drones this morning. He says some of them flew over major population centres, including Karachi, which is the biggest city in the country with 20 million people and crucially, Rawalpindi, which is home to Pakistan's general military headquarters. Sharif says they shot down all the drones except for one that targeted an old airport in Lahore. He says four military personnel were injured and one civilian killed. Sharif just spoke to the media in English. That's a signal that his message is for the West.

[Ajay Shukla]

It appears that India has apparently lost their the plot and rather than going on a path of rationality, is further escalating in a highly charged environment to satisfy the hubristic mindset of the Indian government.

[Diya Hadid]

What he's referring to there, Layla, is India's Hindu nationalist government which had vowed retribution for a militant attack in late April where gunmen opened fire on tourists in a Meadow, killing 26. India blamed Pakistan for that attack. Pakistan says it's not connected, but it's that incident which triggered these escalations.

[Leila Fadel]

Right. But I'm thinking, where does this go? It seems like tensions are just rising and rising at this point.

[Diya Hadid]

At this point, yes. But if I can step back a bit. When India struck Pakistan earlier this week, the Indian military had quickly signalled they were not seeking an escalation. And Pakistan said it shot down five Indian military aircraft. And analysts told me they were waiting to see if that would be enough for Pakistan to show its people that the army was defending the country. Even this morning, the Pakistani deputy prime minister confirmed that national security advisers of both countries had spoken to each other. So it was looking hopeful. But then the accusation happened of India sending drones over Pakistani airspace. So Ajay Shukla, he is a retired Indian army colonel and he says any new development here changes all calculations.

[Ajay Shukla]

And the dynamic between those two are sort of hostile and sort of aggressive. Then what watis was said two days ago no longer holds good. There is absolutely scope for something bigger.

[Leila Fadel]

Has India said anything about these allegations about the drones?

[Diya Hadid]

Not so far. But India's foreign minister has just said if the country is attacked, there'll be a firm response. And it's important to remember already in this latest escalation, there are casualties, more than 30 people on the Pakistani side, including children, and more than 12 people killed in India. And that doesn't even include the 26 people who were killed by gunmen in late April, which triggered this whole escalation.

[Leila Fadel]

It's DIA Hadid in Mumbai. Thank you, dia.

[Diya Hadid]

Thank you, Layla.

[Leila Fadel]

The Trump administration wants to send migrants to Libya, possibly as soon as this week.

[Steve Inskeep]

Libya US Officials have spent the last few months negotiating with various countries to see who is willing to take in people deported from the United States.

[Leila Fadel]

NPR's immigration reporter Ximena Ostillo joins us now to talk about all this. Good morning. Ximena.

[Ximena Ostillo]

Good morning.

[Leila Fadel]

So what do we know about this plan to send migrants to Libya?

[Ximena Ostillo]

Yesterday, my colleague Tom Bowman confirmed administration officials are planning to use Libya as a destination for migrants removed from the US earlier this week. Rwanda's foreign minister also said it was in talks with Washington about the same issue. And of course, the US has had similar deals already with Mexico and El Salvador. Now, the deportations to Libya would be carried out by the US Military, but it's not clear how many people or what nationalities would be sent under the deal. President Trump told reporters yesterday he didn't know about the plan and to ask the Department of Homeland Security. Homeland Security did not respond to NPR's requests to confirm the plans.

[Leila Fadel]

Okay, so we've already seen actions in court to try and stop these military flights before they've even happened. What can you tell us about the lawsuit?

[Ximena Ostillo]

A judge in Massachusetts already issued an injunction blocking the Homeland Security Department from removing migrants to these third countries. That means deporting people to countries they're not originally from. The administration has found workarounds, though. They've used other agencies such as the Defense Department to remove people from the U.S. immigration lawyers filed an emergency motion yesterday asking that same judge to again block removals to Libya or any third country. They argued their clients, who are Laotian, Vietnamese, and Filipino, could be sent in a matter of hours. And last night, the judge issued another order. It clarifies DHS can't use a loophole and that any agencies, including the Pentagon, can't deport people to these third countries unless those people get prior time to contest their removals.

[Leila Fadel]

Okay, so there's a legal block in this court. I mean, Libya is not considered the safest country. Have other concerns been raised about this plan?

[Ximena Ostillo]

First off, Libya has been wrestling with violence and armed conflict since the civil war that toppled Moab almost 15 years ago. The country is still in turmoil. There is a military strongman who controls the eastern half of the country and a UN Backed government controls the West. And I'd note both governments issued statements rejecting the plan to send migrants there. And Libya has a notorious human rights record.

[Leila Fadel]

Yeah, I mean, this isn't the first deal, though, that the White House has made with other countries. We've already reported a lot on the US paying El Salvador $6 million to house migrants removed from the US in a mega prison there. What's the point of these agreements?

[Ximena Ostillo]

One of the main goals is to send migrants further away to avoid people crossing back over U.S. borders. And that's according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. But there are plenty of practical implications. About 1.4 million people have pending deportation orders. That's according to the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency. But there are many challenges to sending them back to their home countries. One is that their home countries may not agree to accept them or actually have limits on how many people or flights they will take from the United States. And this has created challenges for past administrations because it means that even if someone has a final removal order, they may not actually be removed. But Trump's goal is to increase the pace of deportations as we've been reporting, and that does mean finding more places for people to go. So the administration is aiming to make these inroads with these kind of, quote, third party countries that can take in deportees. If Libya isn't under the table, others likely will be.

[Leila Fadel]

NPR's Jimenez Postillo. Thank you, Jimena.

[Ximena Ostillo]

Thank you.

[Leila Fadel]

If you're waiting for lower interest rates to take out a car loan, finance a business, or just make a big purchase on your credit card, you're going to have to wait a bit longer.

[Steve Inskeep]

Policymakers at the Federal Reserve voted to hold short term interest rates steady for now. That's how powerful they are. They make news even when they do nothing, which is what they chose to do here while they wait to see how President Trump's trade war plays out in the U.S. economy.

[Leila Fadel]

NPR's Scott Horsley has been watching the Fed's deliberations and he joins us now. Hi, Scott.

[Jerome Powell]

Good morning, Lily.

[Leila Fadel]

Okay, so in its statement, the Fed pointed to growing uncertainty about the economic outlook. What does it mean by that?

[Jerome Powell]

Well, it's been just over a month since President Trump ordered worldwide tariffs, effectively dropping a giant rock into the oceans on which global trade flows. And, and we're still waiting to see where the resulting waves wash up. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says if those Tariffs last, they could have a profound effect on the economy. But the Trump administration has already backtracked on some of the import taxes. So Powell says it's not clear they're going to stick around.

[Scott Horsley]

My gut tells me that uncertainty about the path of the economy is extremely elevated. The risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen, but they haven't materialized yet. And that tells me the right thing to do is await further clarity.

[Jerome Powell]

Fed policymakers voted unanimously yesterday to keep interest rates where they've been since the end of last year. They'll have another chance to adjust rates, though, in June and then again in July.

[Leila Fadel]

What will Fed policymakers be watching for between now and then?

[Jerome Powell]

They're watching for any sign of increased pressure on prices, which could rekindle inflation, or any weakening in the job market that could lead to higher unemployment. We know the trade war has taken a toll on consumer confidence. People are clearly worried about higher inflation and the prospect of widespread layoffs. But just last week, we learned that employers added 177,000 jobs in April. So Powell and his colleagues just don't feel a great sense of urgency right now to goose the economy by cutting rates.

[Scott Horsley]

People are feeling stress and concern, but unemployment hasn't gone up. Job creation is fine. Wages are in good shape. The economy itself is still, you know, in solid shape.

[Jerome Powell]

Now, one early warning sign we have seen is a drop in cargo traffic from China. Trump's triple digit tariffs on Chinese goods have put a big dent in shipments across the Pacific Ocean. We could start to see some empty store shelves in a few weeks because of that. But as we learned during the pandemic, when there's a problem with supply chains, there's not a whole lot the central bank and its interest rate tools can do about that.

[Leila Fadel]

Now, President Trump has repeatedly called on the Fed to lower interest rates. Is that having any effect?

[Jerome Powell]

Not really. It's made headlines, but Powell and his colleagues don't seem to be paying a lot of attention. Powell's term as Fed chairman does run out in about a year, and at that point, Trump will get to install a new chairman. Powell was asked yesterday if he might stay on the board after he steps down as chair. He didn't answer, but said he's focused on these next 12 months.

[Scott Horsley]

My whole focus is on and my colleagues focus is all on trying to navigate this tricky passage we're in right now, trying to make the right decisions for the people that we serve.

[Jerome Powell]

Presidents often want lower rates to goose the economy, although most are not so outspoken as Trump is. But that's why the Fed was set up to be insulated from political pressure, so policymakers can do what they think is best for the economy, even if it's not popular in the short run.

[Leila Fadel]

NPR Scott Horsley. Thank you, Scott.

[Jerome Powell]

You're welcome.

[Leila Fadel]

And that's up first for Thursday, May 8th. I'm Layla Falden.

[Steve Inskeep]

And I'm Steve Inskeep. Your next listen is Consider this from NPR News. Up first gives you three big stories of the day. Consider this dives deep on one Listen now on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Leila Fadel]

Today's episode of up first was edited by Rylan Barton, Anna Yukonanov, Raphael Nam, Janaya Williams and Alice Wolpley. It was produced by Katie Klein, Nia Dumas and Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Stacy Abbott, and our technical director is Carly Strange. Join us again tomorrow.

[Jerome Powell]

This message comes from NPR sponsor Rosetta Stone, an expert in language learning for 30 years. Right now, NPR listeners can get Rosetta Stone's lifetime membership to 25 different languages for 50% off. Learn more at RosettaStone.com NPR this message comes from Carvana.

[Jimena Postillo]

Carvana makes financing your next car easy. Buy 100% online with customizable terms good for 30 days. Buy your car the convenient way with Carvana. Terms may apply. This message comes from Bombas. Socks, underwear and T shirts are the top three requested clothing items by people experiencing homelessness. Bombas makes all three and donates one item for every item purchased. Go to bombas.com NPR and use code NPR for 20% off.