Iran One Week On, Oil Prices Spike, Latin America Meeting

Summary

Up First from NPR

Episode: Iran One Week On, Oil Prices Spike, Latin America Meeting
Date: March 7, 2026
Hosts: Ayesha Rascoe, Scott Simon

Overview

This episode of NPR’s Up First covers three of the day’s major world news stories: the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict one week after the war began, the resulting global spike in oil prices and shipping disruptions, and President Trump’s summit with select Latin American leaders in Miami focused on countering Chinese influence and fighting drug cartels. The episode features on-the-ground reporting, expert analysis, and direct quotes from official sources—all condensed into a brisk news roundup.

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1. One Week Into the Iran War: Regional Unfolding

Key Segment: 00:17–05:16

Main Developments

• Escalated Strikes: Overnight, Israel intensified airstrikes against targets across Iran (including Tehran) and in Lebanon. Over 1,300 reported dead in Iran and hundreds more in Lebanon.
• Iranian Response: Iran’s President Masoud Pashikian issued a rare apology for attacks on Gulf neighbors, but indicated Iran would retaliate if attacked from those countries, and asserted a preference for diplomatic solutions.
• Widening Instability: Air raid sirens in Israel and across the Gulf, with reports of intercepted drones in Dubai, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia.
• Lebanon Crisis: Massive displacement around Beirut; Israeli forces targeting Hezbollah strongholds.

Insights & Quotes

• Carrie Kahn, reporting from a bomb shelter in Tel Aviv:

  "Israel’s military did say early this morning they sent more than 80 fighter jets into Iran and struck multiple targets across the country and in Tehran, including what it says was the Revolutionary Guard’s main military university." (02:07) "The number of sirens going off in Israel have declined in this first week. But Israelis are still spending hours in bomb shelters." (02:17)

• On the regional mood:

  Gulf official (via NPR): "We will only believe it if we see it." (03:30)

• Displacement in Beirut:

  Mohammad Abu Ahmed, Beirut resident: "We’re by the sea. It’s raining and cold and we are hungry and thirsty. Life is so bad…this is all frightening and war is no game." (04:41)

• Israel’s warning to Lebanon:

  Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz: "Take steps before we do even more…or Lebanon…will pay a very heavy price." (05:11)

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2. Oil Markets in Turmoil: Price Spikes and Shipping Risks

Key Segment: 05:32–10:00

Main Developments

• Oil Price Surge: Crude oil rose to nearly $93 a barrel (up from $70 pre-war); gasoline prices in the US rose over 14% in a week.
• Strait of Hormuz Disrupted: Iran’s attacks on ships and threats against the key waterway have made the strait a “parking lot”, disrupting global oil and LNG exports (accounts for 20% of the world’s supply).
• Shipping Insurance Crisis: Premiums for moving goods through the strait have skyrocketed; US offers to provide insurance and naval escorts, but the scale required (estimated $350 billion) far exceeds current coverage ($20 billion).
• Supply Gap: While global reserves and alternative pipelines can mitigate some shortfall, experts estimate a 1–3 million barrel per day deficit could persist—eventually depleting reserves if the crisis drags on.
• US Market Impact: Even though the US now produces more oil than it consumes, Americans will still feel the cost due to the global nature of oil pricing.

Insights & Quotes

• Oil trader Rebecca Babin (via Camilla Domonosky):

  "Panic has officially set in as in oil traders are panicking." (05:51)

• Halima Croft, RBC Capital Markets:

  "The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively a parking lot with tankers avoiding going through the critical waterway that accounts for 20% of global oil and LNG exports." (06:44)

• Neil Roberts, Lloyd’s Market:

  "Coverage is available but the price has to match the risk. Right. And this is very risky." (07:48)

• Camilla Domonosky:

  "The world might make up all but 1 to 3 million barrels, but that's still an enormous gap, and that's relying on reserves that would eventually run out." (08:49) "This is a global market for crude oil…Americans are still going to feel the price hikes not just in gasoline, but in everything, because transporting stuff is part of the cost of everything we buy." (09:30)

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3. U.S. Strategy in Latin America: The "Don Row Doctrine"

Key Segment: 10:16–14:25

Main Developments

• Trump’s Summit: President Trump meets in Miami with 12 conservative-aligned Latin American leaders at the “Shield of the Americas” summit—distinct from the more broadly inclusive Summit of the Americas.
• Key Absences: Major players, including Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, are not present.
• Summit Focus: Attending nations expected to sign a joint security agreement encouraging military action against drug cartels.
• Broader Geopolitical Context: The meeting is part of a wider effort to counter growing Chinese investment and presence in the region.
• Historical Echoes: The so-called “Don Row Doctrine” (a play on Monroe Doctrine), aims at renewed U.S. dominance in the hemisphere.
• Notable Dynamics: Despite current military focus on the Middle East, the administration is signaling ongoing attention to Latin America.

Insights & Quotes

• Franco Ordonez, NPR White House Correspondent:

  "This is actually a group of conservatives who are broadly on board with the president agenda." (10:58) "Does not include Brazil and Mexico, which are the two largest economies, or Colombia." (11:19)

• Benjamin Gaddan, former White House adviser:

  "The expectation is always that Latin America will be bumped by a more prominent foreign policy crisis. The fact that…the president himself is doing the same is a signal that the administration really will continue to focus on Latin America and not be pulled toward the regions that normally suck up so much attention in Washington." (12:26) "You can’t wish China away. You can’t bully countries into turning their back on China. China is just such a major source of capital for the region and it buys so many regional goods." (13:14)

• On the challenge of US vs. China:

  "This is a country that received a $20 billion bailout from the United States, but where was its foreign minister just a few weeks ago? Meeting with the Chinese…" (13:36)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the war’s human cost:

  “We’re by the sea. It’s raining and cold and we are hungry and thirsty. Life is so bad…this is all frightening and war is no game.” (Mohammad Abu Ahmed, 04:41)

• On skepticism towards Iranian assurances:

  “We will only believe it if we see it.” (anonymous Gulf official, 03:30)

• On the Strait of Hormuz shipping standstill:

  “The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively a parking lot…” (Halima Croft, 06:44)

• On the intractability of Chinese influence:

  “You can’t wish China away. You can’t bully countries into turning their back on China.” (Benjamin Gaddan, 13:14)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Topic | |--------|----------------------------------------------------------| | 00:17–05:16 | Iran War Updates: Strikes, Apologies, Regional Fallout | | 05:32–10:00 | Oil Price Surge & Market Impact | | 10:16–14:25 | Trump’s Latin America Summit, “Don Row Doctrine,” US–China rivalry |

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Tone and Takeaways

Conveyed in the balanced, matter-of-fact tone typical of NPR, the episode delivers urgent, firsthand reporting from conflict zones and analysis of world markets and foreign policy. The mood is serious and analytical, highlighting war’s uncertainty, spikes in global costs, and high-stakes maneuvering in international alliances.

Transcript

[Ayesha Rascoe]

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[Franco Ordonez]

It could last, you know, six days, six weeks, I doubt six months.

[Scott Simon]

Echoes of Iraq in the US Strikes

[Ayesha Rascoe]

on Iran as uncertainty grows over time and scope. Hi, I'm Ayesha Rascoe.

[Scott Simon]

And I'm Scott Simon. And this is up first from NPR News. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld was answering questions in northern Italy in February 2003 on a trip to reassure European leaders in the run up to the Iraq war.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

Similar questions now, both from allies and from worried investors who are watching energy prices rise. We take a look today on the podcast. That's after the latest developments in the fighting and a wrap up of the Iran war's first week and later, President

[Scott Simon]

Trump's plans for American influence closer to home. So please stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your weekend.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

Overnight. Israel continued airstrikes throughout Iran, including the capital Tehran, and continued striking targets in Lebanon. And early this morning, Iran's president apologized in a recorded statement for attacking Gulf states.

[Scott Simon]

The death toll throughout the region is rising, with more than 1300 reported dead in Iran, according to the Iranian Red Crescent, and hundreds more in Lebanon, according to health officials there. NPR's Carrie Khan joins us now from Tel Aviv. And I'm told you had to go into a bomb shelter, Kerry.

[Carrie Kahn]

Yes, I am. The air raid sirens went off and I am in the safe room now, a little echoey, but safe.

[Scott Simon]

All right. Thanks for being with us. Israel's military says it hit a number of sites overnight and this morning. What do we know?

[Carrie Kahn]

Right? Israel's military did say early this morning they sent more than 80 fighter jets into Iran and struck multiple targets across the country and in Tehran, including what it says was the Revolutionary Guard's main military university. Israel says it has attacked hard Iran's missile and drone systems. I can tell you that the number of sirens going off in Israel have declined in this first week. But Israelis are still spending hours in bomb shelters. And like you said, I'm in one right now. And in the last 24 hours, sirens went off throughout the night and this morning I'm just waiting for the all clear signal.

[Scott Simon]

Okay. Iran's been firing missiles and drones around the region at nearly a dozen countries. What did Iran's president say today and what's reaction been?

[Carrie Kahn]

It was a recorded message. It was very short and it was put out on state media channels. President Masoud Pashikian apologized for striking Iran's neighbors, but he stopped short of saying there would be no more attacks. He said Iran would only strike its neighbors if, quote, an attack on Iran originates from those countries. And he added this. He says, I believe we should resolve this through diplomacy rather than facing problems by fighting. He said. But on Saturday morning, the air raid sirens went off in multiple countries throughout the Gulf. There was a drone intercepted in Dubai that temporarily suspended flights at that huge international airport there. Sirens in Bahrain and Saudi officials say they've intercepted nearly a dozen drones. There's been no official reaction from Gulf states yet about their Iranian president's apology. But this morning NPR did speak with a Gulf official who said, quote, we will only believe it if we see it. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. And this is interesting. In a statement after the president's message, Iran's military stated that it still considers U.S. military bases and other U.S. interests in the region fair game.

[Scott Simon]

Israel has also bombarded the suburbs around Beirut. What's happening there?

[Carrie Kahn]

Sure. Israel says it's going after Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon and a Beirut suburb believed to be a stronghold of the Iranian back group. Overnight, they took heavy strikes in those areas of Beirut. Tens of thousands of people have been displaced. Many are living on the streets and camping on the beachfronts in the capital. NPR spoke with Mohammad Abu Ahmed. He's a 39 year old father with two small children. They all fled their neighborhood and are sleeping on Beirut's bed. Beachside promenade, He says, we're by the sea. It's raining and cold and we are hungry and thirsty. Life is so bad, he says. Then he added, this is all frightening and war is no game. And Israel's defense minister, Israel Katz, this morning warned Lebanon's president to act and take steps before we do even more to stop Hezbollah fighters or Lebanon, he said, will, quote, pay a very heavy price.

[Scott Simon]

And Paris, Carrie Khan in Tel Aviv, thanks so much.

[Carrie Kahn]

You're welcome.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

Now to the energy markets. Global oil prices spiked this week and

[Scott Simon]

that's pushing U.S. gasoline prices up, too. NPR's Camilla Domonosky covers energy. She joins us now. Camilla, thanks for being with us.

[Camilla Domonosky]

Happy to be here.

[Scott Simon]

And what's the latest?

[Camilla Domonosky]

Well, prices really shot up yesterday. For the first half of the week, prices were up, but Rebecca Babin, an oil trader, told me on Monday that markets were not panicking. Well, she emailed me on Friday afternoon and said, quote, panic has officially set in as in oil traders are panicking. Now, the global benchmark for crude closed for the weekend at a little under $93 a barrel. That's up from 70 before the attack. And these higher crude prices have pushed up gasoline more than 14% which is a bigger week on week jump than we saw after Russia invaded Ukraine.

[Scott Simon]

What changed from Monday to Friday?

[Camilla Domonosky]

Well, hopes for a quick resolution to the conflict faded over those days. We have also seen attacks on oil infrastructure in countries across the Gulf region. But above all there is this key waterway folks have heard.

[Carrie Kahn]

Right?

[Camilla Domonosky]

Here's Halima Croft with RBC Capital Markets earlier this week. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively a

[Scott Simon]

parking lot with tankers avoiding going through

[Camilla Domonosky]

the critical waterway that accounts for 20%

[Ayesha Rascoe]

of global oil and LNG exports.

[Camilla Domonosky]

LNG is liquefied natural gas and yeah, 20%. Right. Iran has threatened to close the strait many times before but never actually done it. And the near halt of ships passing through has had knock on effects at as the days passed. Right. Iraq and most recently Kuwait have had to stop some oil production because there is simply nowhere to put it.

[Scott Simon]

How is Iran keeping the strait closed?

[Camilla Domonosky]

Yeah, it's not physically blocked. Some ships have actually gotten through. But Iran has attacked multiple ships attempting the passage with drones and missiles. So do ship owners and captains want to risk the loss of an oil tanker? The environmental disaster that could create the lives of their crew?

[Carrie Kahn]

Right.

[Camilla Domonosky]

Meanwhile, ensuring a trip through the strait got a lot more expensive. I chatted with Neil Roberts from Lloyd's Market in London, which has been pricing the risk of sending cargo through war zones for centuries, since the days of the British Empire when the ships in question had sails. Right. And he says that coverage is available but the price has to match the risk. Right. And this is very risky. Now the US has now offered to provide both insurance and naval escort to ships in the region. But yesterday the agency handling that insurance said that they can cover up to $20 billion total. JPMorgan Chase has estimated that the need is more like $350 billion. And as for the US escorts, Roberts said that a lot of ships would really rather have a neutral escort from a country that is not a part of this war.

[Scott Simon]

Camilla, can the world replace the oil that is stuck waiting to come through the strait?

[Camilla Domonosky]

Partially. So we're Talking about some 20 million barrels per day that's not moving. There are some stockpiles globally and some oil from the Gulf region can be redirected through pipelines if those aren't attacked. Kevin Book is the co founder of Clearview Energy Partners. He says by his math, the world might make up all but 1 to 3 million barrels, but that's still an enormous gap, and that's relying on reserves

[Scott Simon]

that would eventually run out during other price shocks. After the invasion of Kuwait, for example, the run up to the war in Iraq crises in the 70s, the US was a lot more reliant on oil from the Middle East. Isn't that some solace for investors and consumers?

[Camilla Domonosky]

Yeah, it is different now. The US Is the world's top oil producer, making more oil than it uses. That is one reason oil isn't like $200 right now, along with the rise of clean energy. But you have to remember this is a global market for crude oil. So the oil passing through the strait would be mostly heading for Asia. Asia, not for the US But Americans are still going to feel the price hikes not just in gasoline, but in everything, because transporting stuff is part of the cost of everything we buy.

[Scott Simon]

NPR's Camila Dominoski, thanks so much for being with us.

[Camilla Domonosky]

Thanks, Scott.

[Scott Simon]

President Trump is in Miami today meeting with Latin American leaders in the hopes of countering Chinese influence in the region.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

It's part of a renewed focus by the administration on its so called Don Row Doctrine, which looks like but doesn't quite rhyme with the Monroe Doctrine and holds that America should aggressively dominate the Western Hemisphere. But several top Latin American leaders are not in Miami today, including those of

[Scott Simon]

the region's two largest economies. NPR's White House correspondent Franco Ordonez joins us. Franco, thanks for being with us.

[Franco Ordonez]

Thanks for having me, Scott.

[Scott Simon]

The Shield of the Americas summit sounds a lot like the Summit of the Americas. What's going on?

[Franco Ordonez]

Yeah, I mean, I will say, Scott, it's very different than the Sum of the Americas, which is kind of meant to gather all the leaders from the Western Hemisphere, from the left, from the right, big countries and small ones. This is actually a group of conservatives who are broadly on board with the president agenda.

[Scott Simon]

And what countries will have representatives there?

[Franco Ordonez]

There's going to be 12 of them. They include Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, El Salvador. And for what it's worth, it does not include Brazil and Mexico, which are the two largest economies, or Colombia. But the White House says those attending will be signing a joint security declaration that basically encourages military force against drug cartels.

[Scott Simon]

And drug gangs across Latin America are a concern, aren't they?

[Franco Ordonez]

Yeah, for sure. And many would love more help from the US which has long provided some anti narcotics aid. And just as an example, a recent one, the US Military launched her joint operations with Ecuador to fight designated terrorist organizations.

[Scott Simon]

Of course, the US Is at war in the Middle East. How much time is there for President Trump to focus on Latin America's drug wars or their relationship with China?

[Franco Ordonez]

I mean, Iran may not be a big topic of conversation at these meetings, but I will say it is part of the larger conversation. Benjamin Gaddan had the South America portfolio in the Obama and White House. He says it's very significant that this is happening, considering US History with the region.

[Benjamin Gaddan]

The expectation is always that Latin America will be bumped by a more prominent foreign policy crisis. The fact that the secretary of defense still traveled to Florida for a meeting about Latin America and that the president himself is doing the same is a signal that the administration really will continue to focus on Latin America and not be pulled toward the regions that normal suck up. So much attention in Washington.

[Franco Ordonez]

And for context, Scott, in his first administration, Trump canceled his trip to attend the Summit of the Americas in Peru in 2018 because of the crisis in Syria. That was supposed to be Trump's first trip to Latin America, and it was largely seen as evidence of his lack of interest in the region.

[Scott Simon]

Well, this is a big reversal. What about China's investments in Latin America? Can the US Realistically counter Chinese influence that's growing?

[Franco Ordonez]

Yeah, I think the administration may be able to be able to mitigate some of that influence. But as Gidan told me, you just can't wish China away. You can't bully countries into turning their back on China. China is just such a major source of capital for the region and it buys so many regional goods. And Ghadan told me there is no clear example than Argentina of Trump's challenges with China in the region.

[Benjamin Gaddan]

This is a country that received a $20 billion bailout from the United States, but where was its foreign minister just a few weeks ago meeting with the Chinese fore to reassure him that Argentina was open to Chinese trade and investment?

[Scott Simon]

Of course, the US Military recently staged an attack in Venezuela and the US Is putting a lot of pressure on Cuba. Today's summit going to address any of that?

[Franco Ordonez]

It's likely Trump will bring up Venezuela and Cuba. But again, these are handpicked leaders who are eager to align with Trump. They're not going to raise concerns. I mean, some are struggling with migration because of the exodus with Venezuela, and they would, of course, appreciate more open Venezuela and Cuba. For them, the focus is seeing benefits working with Trump.

[Scott Simon]

NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordonez, thanks so much.

[Franco Ordonez]

Thank you, Scott.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

And that's up first for Saturday, March 7, 2026. I'm Ayesha Rascoe.

[Scott Simon]

And I'm Scott Simon. Elena Twerek and Fernando Naro produced today's podcast.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

Our editors were Ed McNulty, Jacob Finston, Diana Douglas, Hannah Block, Kara Platoni and Rebecca Metzler. Andy Craig directed.

[Scott Simon]

Our technical director is O. Van Genhoven, with engineering support from Tom Marchetto, Damien Herring, Jay Siz and Zach Coleman.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

Shannon Rhodes is our senior supervising editor. Our executive producer is Evie Stone. Jim Cain is our deputy managing editor.

[Scott Simon]

And tomorrow on THE Sunday Story, we take you to India and investigate the black market for human eggs.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

Thank you for listening and for supporting your local NPR station. If you don't know your local NPR station, just go to stations.NPR.org and you'll find it. Thank you so much.

[Scott Simon]

Yeah, it doesn't take time at all, and it's time well spent.

[Ayesha Rascoe]

Exactly. Foreign.

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