Iran War Escalates, Kurds Stay Out, Global Shipping Crisis

Summary

Podcast Summary: Up First from NPR

Episode: Iran War Escalates, Kurds Stay Out, Global Shipping Crisis
Date: March 9, 2026
Hosts: Steve Inskeep, Michelle Martin, Leila Fadel
Reporters: Daniel Estrin, Jane Arraf, Jackie Northam

Episode Overview

This episode explores the rapidly escalating war between Israel and Iran, specifically focusing on three main issues:

• The intensification of the conflict and Israel’s war aims
• The role of the Kurds in the region and why they're remaining neutral
• The global shipping and energy crisis provoked by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz

The hosts and NPR correspondents provide on-the-ground reporting, geopolitical analysis, and interviews with key regional leaders, highlighting broader consequences for the Middle East and beyond.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Israel’s Escalation and War Timeline

[01:41–04:54]

• Israel bombed Iranian oil facilities over the weekend, leading to environmental consequences in Tehran: “Black rain to fall over the capital” – Michelle Martin [00:17].
• Senior Israeli officials estimate that the war will last “about three weeks” with the objective to “decimate Iran’s army, navy, military industries.” – Daniel Estrin [02:29].
• There's acknowledged tension between Israel and the US regarding strategy:
  • “The US has not been happy with Israel's targeting of the Iranian oil depots this weekend.” – Daniel Estrin [02:54]
  • Senator Lindsey Graham publicly warned, “Israel, be cautious about your targets, because Iran's oil economy will be needed when Iran's regime collapses, or Graham hopes it will collapse.” – Daniel Estrin [03:37]
• Iran’s response: Appointment of Mujtaba Khamenei (son of the late Supreme Leader) as Supreme Leader, seen as more hardline than his father. Iran signals continued regional aggression – launches missiles and cluster bombs at Israeli and Gulf targets.

Notable Quote:
“Israel is expecting that it needs about three weeks to achieve its goals in Iran.” – Daniel Estrin [02:29]

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2. The Kurdish Stance: Refusing to Enter the War

[05:02–08:45]

• Geopolitical context: Kurdish populations reside on both sides of the Iran-Iraq border, with many in Iraqi Kurdistan effectively governing themselves.
• US discussions of encouraging Iranian Kurds to rise up against the Tehran regime, initially supported then downplayed by President Trump.
• Exclusive Interview with Kubad Talabani, Deputy Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government (Iraq):
  • “Our forces would not get involved under any circumstances. This is not our war, and we've made that very clear.” – Kubad Talabani [06:38]
  • The potential fallout of chaos in Iran—a country “the size of Western Europe with 90 million people”—would be catastrophic.
  • Talabani insists Kurds are misrepresented in American discussions: “We always get labeled with good fighters… But we're not guns for hire.” [08:22]
• Security concerns: Kurdistan is attacked by both Iran and Iran-backed militias, despite staying out of the war (“These are groups that are paid by the state, firing at us. What's going on here?” – Kubad Talabani [07:41])
• Relations with Iran: Iranian officials met with Kurdish leadership recently to confirm the Kurds’ neutrality.

Notable Quotes:

• “We have explained maybe some of the flaws behind the thought of using Iranian Kurds as the tip of the spear…” – Kubad Talabani [06:11]
• “We just want to govern our region, build the economy and live in peace.” – summarizing Talabani [08:35]

---

3. War's Echoes: Afghanistan Redux and Local Impact

[08:46–10:37]

• Leila Fadel reports from the Iraqi Kurdistan border, noting the “eerie echoes” to the early days of the US war in Iraq.
• Trump’s recent address after the Iran strikes is paralleled to George W. Bush’s 2003 speech launching the Iraq war.
• The disastrous legacy of the Iraq War looms over the current conflict, raising questions about escalation and aftermath for both Americans and the region.

Notable Moment:
“It lasted over a decade, cost upwards of a trillion dollars, sparked a civil war and left deep scars on Iraqis who lived through the war and the US Soldiers who fought here. So we will explore what the future may hold, but also try to understand the lessons of the past that continue to haunt Americans, Iraqis and the region.” – Leila Fadel [10:01]

---

4. Global Shipping Crisis and Economic Fallout

[10:37–13:53]

• Strait of Hormuz blockaded: Hundreds of oil tankers and cargo ships stuck on both sides due to the risk of attack, risking a severe global energy crisis.
• Importance of shipping: 20% of global oil/LNG passes through the strait, but also essential supplies—90% of the Middle East’s fresh food imports are at risk.
• Interview with Matthew Wright (Kepler):
  • “The fact that those cargoes are not able to go in, this could be a fairly critical issue for the region.” – Matthew Wright via Jackie Northam [11:37]
• Attacks on shipping: Last week, a cargo vessel was struck and a UAE tugboat was hit by a missile, killing its crew.
• Shipping industry frozen: 120 ships idle in port, insurance and booking suspended; perishable foods spoil, markets threatened.
• US Navy’s idea to escort tankers: Described as “lukewarm” by industry experts; seen as potentially making vessels bigger targets for Iranian retaliation.

Notable Quotes:

• “The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is, is scrambling. That cargo's piling up, stress on the ports. Things are slowing down. And all this is not good from a market standpoint.” – Jackie Northam [12:10]
• “Iran knows that launching the odd missile or drone at a vessel or even the threat of one can strangle Marine traffic … and it's using that as a weapon.” – Jackie Northam [13:06]

---

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• Daniel Estrin on urgency amid missile warnings:
  “Just as we're speaking here… we are getting advance notice on our phones that an Iranian missile is on its way to Israel.” [02:14]
• Talabani on Kurdish identity:
  “We're not guns for hire.” [08:22]
• Leila Fadel on echoes of history:
  “23 years ago, the American people heard a similar address [to Trump’s].” [09:43]
• Jackie Northam on shipping paralysis:
  “120 cargo ships in limbo at ports in the Gulf region.” [12:10]

---

Important Timestamps

• [01:47] – Escalation of war, bombing of oil facilities
• [02:29] – Israeli timeline for military campaign
• [03:23] – Tension between US and Israel over oil facility strikes
• [06:38] – Kubad Talabani on Kurdish neutrality
• [08:22] – Rejection of the “guns for hire” label
• [10:01] – Reflections on the legacy of the Iraq war
• [11:37] – Matthew Wright on Mideast food dependency
• [12:10] – Cargo ships stranded, supply disruption
• [13:06] – US Navy escorts and strategic risks

---

Conclusion

The episode delivers an urgent and in-depth look at the war between Israel and Iran, amplifying the voices of those struggling to stay out of the conflict, outlining the ripple effects on global shipping and energy supply, and drawing powerful historical parallels. Through interviews and frontline reports, Up First provides clarity on a rapidly changing crisis affecting millions—from Tehran’s black rain to empty grocery shelves in the Gulf.

Transcript

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[Michelle Martin]

Israel bombed Iran's oil facilities over the weekend, causing black rain to fall over the capital, Tehran.

[Steve Inskeep]

A senior Israeli official tells NPR's Daniel Estrin Israel expects to defeat Iran in about three weeks.

[Michelle Martin]

I'm Michelle Martin. That's Steve Insky. This is up first from NPR News. One of the groups that could rise up against Iran's government is ethnic Kurds. Many live in western Iran. Others live across the border in Iraq. But an Iraqi leader tells NPR they are not guns for hire. So what is their role in the Middle east war?

[Steve Inskeep]

Also, the war is blocking traffic through one of the world's most critical shipping lanes. Tankers and container ships are not passing through the Strait of Hormuz. And and a global energy crisis is growing. Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day.

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[Steve Inskeep]

Here's a big question hanging over the US And Israeli war in Iran. How long will this war last?

[Michelle Martin]

That question is becoming urgent as the war begins to affect the global economy. Israel escalated the war over the weekend, bombing oil facilities. The disruption of shipments from multiple nations has sent the price of oil soaring. And Iran shows no sign of giving in after choosing a new supreme leader.

[Steve Inskeep]

Over the weekend, a senior Israeli military Official spoke with NPR's Daniel Estrin about how Israel views the prospects for ending the war. Hey there, Daniel.

[Daniel Estrin]

Hi, Steve.

[Steve Inskeep]

Okay, so what is the Israeli timeline?

[Daniel Estrin]

Well, just as we're speaking here, you might hear the alarms. We are getting advance notice on our phones that an Iranian missile is on its way to Israel. So we have a few minutes now to speak before the air raid sirens will go off.

[Steve Inskeep]

Got it.

[Daniel Estrin]

But I'll tell you that Israel is expecting that it needs about three weeks to achieve its goals in Iran. That's what a senior Israeli defense official told me this weekend. This person is in the military's operations directorate. He spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss Israel's military plans, but he says the goal is to decimate Iran's army, navy, military industries. And Israel also realizes that President Trump could just end the war at any point. So the US Is not giving a timeline on how it sees the war and how long it would take. But we do know that the US has not been happy with Israel's targeting of the Iranian oil depots this weekend.

[Steve Inskeep]

And Daniel, of course you're going to move when you need to, to be safe. Don't worry about us at all. But glad you're with us for another moment. It sounds like there's a little bit of daylight between the US And Israel here, but why did Israel target Iran's oil facilities? Pretty dramatic. Yeah.

[Daniel Estrin]

Well, Israel said that Iran was using that oil to fuel Iranian missiles launched at Israel. But this is also civilian infrastructure we're talking about. U.S. officials have been displeased with the extent of the damage that Israel caused. You know, those skies that were blackened and the oily raindrops that dropped onto Tehran. So I heard from a person briefed on the matter, not authorized to speak publicly, that the US Was not pleased with the extent of that damage. Even Senator Lindsey Graham, who's close to Prime Minister Netanyahu, tweeted publicly, israel, be cautious about your targets, because Iran's oil economy will be needed when Iran's regime

[Steve Inskeep]

collapses, or Graham hopes it will collapse. Although the Iranians seem to be showing what they would consider to be resolve by choosing a supreme leader with the same name as the old supreme leader.

[Daniel Estrin]

That's right. Iran has appointed Mujtaba Khamenei to be the new supreme leader. He's the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed by Israel on day one of the war. And the son is seen as even more hardline than the father was. But Iran has sent a message as well this weekend that it can exact a painful price around the region, not just Israel. We saw Iran launch a missile with a dangerous cluster bomb warhead that hit an apartment building here in Tel Aviv just a few minutes drive from me in Tel Aviv. And attacks on oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia took place this weekend as well. So we're seeing the Gulf get dragged into this conflict as well. They've been very hesitant to take part in the war. So we're going to have to see where that goes.

[Steve Inskeep]

Okay. NPR's Daniel Estrin is in Tel Aviv. And Daniel, be sure you're ready to move if you need to in the next few minutes. Appreciate your insights.

[Daniel Estrin]

You're welcome.

[Steve Inskeep]

Our next report on the war takes us to the western border of Iran and it helps to get the geography down.

[Michelle Martin]

Okay, so try to picture this. Ethnic Kurds live on both sides of the border. On one side, the Kurds are part of Iran. On the other side, Kurds control their own region of Iraq. Some Iranian armed opposition groups have been based on the Iraqi side for decades. The US has talked of encouraging those Kurds to attack Iran in recent days. President Trump has suggested that he was for it, but then said he is against it.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR's Jane Araf is on the Iraqi side of the border in the Iraqi Kurdistan region. And she spoke with the deputy prime minister there, Kubad Talabani, on Sunday. She's in the city of Suleimaniya. Hi there, Jane.

[Jane Arraf]

Hi.

[Steve Inskeep]

Okay, so what does the Iraqi Kurdish leader say about these Iranian Kurdish groups who seem to live on his territory?

[Jane Arraf]

Well, as you know, the Kurds have long been strong US Allies, including the fight against isis. Now, this was Talabani's first interview with Western media since the start of the war, and he wanted to make clear that neither Iraqi nor Iranian Kurds here would be part of the fight. Let's listen.

[Kubad Talabani]

We have explained maybe some of the flaws behind the thought of using Iranian Kurds as the tip of the spear to launch any potential uprisings within Iran.

[Jane Arraf]

Talibani is deputy prime minister for the entire Kurdistan region. He says his brother Bafal Talabani, who's head of the party that controls this part of Iraqi Kurdistan, spoke with Trump last week and relayed this message.

[Kubad Talabani]

Our forces would not get involved under any circumstances. This is not our war, and we've made that very clear.

[Jane Arraf]

Talabani points out that in a country the size of Western Europe with 90 million people and multiple ethnic groups, chaos would be disastrous.

[Steve Inskeep]

Appreciate that statement that Iran's the size of Western Europe. You realize what it would take to invade and take over such a place? I want to explain further where you are. The Kurdistan region of Iraq broke away from the Iraqi government many years ago, but it's still part of Iraq. How vulnerable is it to getting involved in the war whether it wants to or not?

[Jane Arraf]

Well, it is definitely squeezed in the middle. On one side there's Iran and on the other side, the pro Iranian Iraqi government. U.S. military Military bases in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan region, have been the most heavily hit by Iran and Iran backed Iraqi militias. But Suleimaniya Province, where we are, has also been attacked by drones and missiles. Here's what Talabani said about those Iraqi attacks.

[Kubad Talabani]

These are groups that are paid by the state, firing at us. What's going on here?

[Steve Inskeep]

Has Iran been in contact with the Kurds during this war?

[Jane Arraf]

Yes. He says the last time was just a few days ago when a high level delegation alarmed by news reports that the US Was pressing for armed opposition groups here to cross the border, came from Tehran.

[Kubad Talabani]

They were trying to understand the realities of this reporting about whether or not we're about to invade Iran. And we made it very clear, no, we have no interest and there's no means to, and that is not our policy.

[Jane Arraf]

Talabani says there's a misconception in the US about the Kurds.

[Kubad Talabani]

We always get labeled with good fighters. Every US President, maybe since Bill Clinton in some form or fashion talked about how good a fighter we are. But we're not guns for hire.

[Jane Arraf]

He says they just want to govern their region, build the economy and live in peace.

[Steve Inskeep]

Okay, NPR's Jane Araf reporting from the Kurdish city of Sulaymaniya. Thanks so much.

[Jane Arraf]

Thank you.

[Steve Inskeep]

Let's get another voice from near Iran's western border. Our co host Leila Fadel is there.

[Leila Fadel]

Hey, it's Layla Fauld and I'm speaking to you as I cross the border into Iraqi Kurdistan. And I want to let you know that all week you'll hear dispatches from our team on the ground. In the midst of the US Israeli war on Iran. I chose to come here not just because it neighbors Iran and is heavily influenced by both the Iranian and US Governments, but because of the eerie echoes of the past, echoes that started the moment the US Dropped its first bombs on Iran. President Trump addressed Americans.

[Steve Inskeep]

A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran. Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.

[Leila Fadel]

23 years ago, the American people heard a similar address.

[Steve Inskeep]

My fellow citizens, at this hour, American

[Jackie Northam]

and coalition forces are in the early

[Steve Inskeep]

stages of military operations to disarm Iraq,

[Kubad Talabani]

to free its people, and to defend

[Steve Inskeep]

the world from grave danger.

[Leila Fadel]

President George W. Bush's war against Iraq was supposed to be decisive and short. It lasted over a decade. Decade cost upwards of a trillion dollars, sparked a civil war and left deep scars on Iraqis who lived through the war and the US Soldiers who fought here. So we will explore what the future may hold, but also try to understand the lessons of the past that continue to haunt Americans, Iraqis and the region. Look out for our reports right here on up first and on our radio show Morning Edition that you can listen to on your local station or your NPR app.

[Steve Inskeep]

The war has created an enormous bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz.

[Michelle Martin]

Hundreds of oil tankers are stuck on both sides of this critical Mideast waterway out of fear of attack by Iran. There are now escalating concerns of a global energy crisis. But it's not just oil tankers. Cargo ships are also stranded, creating a shortage of essential goods getting to the Persian Gulf region.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR international affairs correspondent Jackie Northam joins us next. Jackie, good morning.

[Jackie Northam]

Good morning, Steve.

[Steve Inskeep]

Okay, wow. One fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes through this one strait, the Strait of Hormuz. Is it just as important for the container ships?

[Leila Fadel]

Right.

[Jackie Northam]

Well, container ships represent a much smaller global percentage, about 3% than the oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. But they're carrying valuable cargo, aluminum, fertilizer and food to the Middle East. And I spoke with Matthew Wright, and he's the lead freight analyst at Kepler, which is a global trade intelligence provider. And he says the Mideast relies on the container ships.

[Kubad Talabani]

90% of its food is imports, particularly on the fresh side. And the fact that those cargoes are not able to go in, this could be a fairly critical issue for the region.

[Jackie Northam]

You know, Wright says at the moment, container ships are not passing through the Strait of Hormuz because of the security risk. And last week, a container ship did come under attack. The crew abandoned ship, it's been adrift. And when a tugboat from the United Arab Emirates went out to assist it, it was struck by a missile, killing all eight on board.

[Steve Inskeep]

Amaz then. So what happens to the cargo of all these ships when they can't move?

[Jackie Northam]

Well, it sits, it sits in port. You know, There are roughly 120 cargo ships in limbo at ports in the Gulf region. And not surprisingly, shipping companies are not accepting new bookings because, you know, we've got all this fresh food and the other things sitting there and they have no idea, the companies, how long the conflict's going to last. And listen, I spoke with, say, the shipping industry is, you know, designed to keep things moving. And the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is, is scrambling. That cargo's piling up, stress on the ports. Things are slowing down. And all this is not good from a market standpoint.

[Steve Inskeep]

Okay. As I understand it, President Trump has talked of the US Navy escorting tankers and ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which would be a kind of replay of the 1980s when something like this happened, the US put flags on oil, US flags on oil tankers and so forth to get them through safely. But when he raises that idea in the 21st century, what kind of reception does it get?

[Jackie Northam]

Lukewarm, I would say. You know, the US Navy also tried this in the Red Sea, using escorts to protect ships from attacks by Yemen's Houthis. And let's say, you know, it didn't have much impact. And let's face it, Iran is more sophisticated than the Houthis from a military point of view, and its ability to target moving vessels and traveling alongside a US Naval vessel might make a tanker or a container ship more of a tempting target for Iran. But you know, Steve, Iran knows that launching the odd missile or drone at a vessel or even the threat of one can strangle Marine traffic in the Strait of Hormuz like we're seeing now. And it's using that as a weapon. And you know, this bottleneck is creating serious threat for the global energy, shipping and, frankly, the global economy.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR's Jackie Northam, thanks so much.

[Jackie Northam]

Thank you.

[Steve Inskeep]

Hey, thanks for joining us today. We've got a favor to ask. Take a moment, if you can, to rate and review us on your podcast app. An Apple podcast user said opt first to stay informed in their review and said if they skip a day, they start to feel lost. We know that's true for many of you. If this show is an essential part of your morning routine, take a moment to tell us what you think. It's a small and free way to support NPR's journalism, and it helps other listeners find us. Thanks. And that's up first for this Monday, March 9th. I'm Steve Inskape.

[Michelle Martin]

And I'm Michelle Martin. Today's episode of up first was edited by Hannah Block, Tina Kraja, James Heider, Mohamed El Bardisi and H.J.

[Kubad Talabani]

mai.

[Michelle Martin]

It was produced by Ziad Butch and Ben Abrams. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Nisha Hynes. And our technical director is Carly Strange. We hope you'll join us again tomorrow.

[Kubad Talabani]

Foreign.

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