Summary of "Is America Becoming an Autocracy?" from NPR's Up First

Release Date: May 18, 2025

In the May 18, 2025, episode of NPR's Up First titled "Is America Becoming an Autocracy?", host Aisha Rascoe delves into the pressing question of whether the United States is shifting away from its longstanding liberal democratic foundations toward a more authoritarian governance model. Through insightful discussions with political scientists, scholars, and individuals from authoritarian backgrounds, the episode examines the current state of American democracy, drawing comparisons with established autocratic regimes.

1. Assessing the Health of American Democracy

The episode opens with alarming assessments from renowned scholars about the state of American democracy. Stephen Levitsky, a professor of government at Harvard, alongside Shebnam Gumushu, a political scientist at Middlebury College, and Kim Lane Shepley, a sociologist at Princeton, express concerns that the U.S. is rapidly moving towards authoritarianism.

• Bright Line Survey Findings
  Aisha Rascoe highlights the results from the Bright Line survey, conducted by Dartmouth's John Kerry. The survey, which evaluates democracy across 30 indicators, shows a significant decline in America's democracy score—from 67 to 53—the steepest drop ever recorded. This places the U.S. roughly midway between Canada and Russia on the democracy scale. As Kerry summarizes, "If you had asked me five years ago, I never would have expected the United States to have fallen this far" ([07:50]).

2. Understanding Competitive Authoritarianism

Rascoe elucidates the concept of competitive authoritarianism, distinguishing it from outright authoritarian regimes like China. In a competitive authoritarian system, leaders are democratically elected but systematically undermine democratic institutions to consolidate power.

• Key Characteristics
  Shebnam Gumushu explains, "We'll attack the media, the universities, to kind of blunt public criticism" ([06:35]). This strategy involves filling government positions with loyalists, intimidating or co-opting business leaders, and manipulating electoral processes to favor the ruling party.

3. Personal Stories Highlighting Democratic Erosion

A poignant anecdote shared by Rascoe involves a scholar from an autocratic Asian nation who became fearful after witnessing U.S. federal agents detain a doctoral student at Tufts University.

• The Tufts University Incident
  Rascoe recounts, "They grab her wrists. She begins to resist, she starts to yell... and then they take her phone, they handcuff her, and then they lead her off to a car" ([02:25]). The student, Ramesa Osterk from Turkey, was detained without charges for co-authoring an op-ed advocating for divestment from companies doing business with Israel. This incident mirrors tactics seen in authoritarian regimes, causing fear that such methods could be employed domestically ([05:27]).

• Scholar’s Fear
  Stephen Levitsky underscores the gravity of the situation: "Coming from a country where occasionally they sort of disappear activists from the streets, this felt like a very familiar pattern" ([04:56]). The scholar, now a green card holder in the U.S., worries about potential targeting and deportation, reminiscent of his experiences in his homeland.

4. Comparative Case Studies: Turkey and Hungary

The episode draws parallels between the actions of leaders like Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey and Viktor Orban of Hungary with current U.S. political dynamics.

• Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey
  Fulja Pinar, an anthropologist at Middlebury College, details Erdogan's gradual consolidation of power: "Newspapers were taken over or shut down. Journalists were imprisoned or exiled" ([10:40]). This suppression extended to academia, hindering intellectual freedom and forcing talents like Pinar to emigrate to seek safety and academic liberty ([11:34]).

• Viktor Orban in Hungary
  Kim Lane Shepley discusses Orban's strategies: cutting state advertising to independent media and slashing university budgets by 40% to control educational institutions ([14:06]). Initially met with mass protests, the pro-democracy movement in Hungary eventually shifted focus to grassroots engagement, addressing practical community issues to garner broader support ([15:56]).

5. Divergent Expert Opinions on America's Path

While the majority of scholars express concern over America's drift towards authoritarianism, some offer alternative perspectives.

• Polarization as a Barrier
  Todd Kent from Texas A&M suggests that extreme political polarization prevents a cohesive move toward authoritarianism: "The party out of power is always going to be kind of accusing the one in power of being anti-Democratic" ([19:50]). This entrenched division acts as a check against unilateral power grabs.

• Imperial Presidency Concerns
  Darren Shaw of the University of Texas at Austin introduces the concept of an "imperial presidency," noting that even if full authoritarianism isn't achieved, President Trump's actions have already eroded democratic norms, posing long-term risks to the rule of law ([19:50]).

• Constitutional Safeguards
  Kurt Whelan, also from the University of Texas at Austin, argues that significant constitutional changes are unlikely without overwhelming public support: "These populist leaders managed to engineer new constitutions that seriously concentrated power... But in the United States, that's out" ([21:26]).

6. Voices from the Frontlines of Democracy and Autocracy

The episode introduces Yaqiao Wang, a Chinese American human rights activist and director at Freedom House, who provides a personal narrative linking her experiences in authoritarian China with current U.S. policies.

• From Activism to Advocacy
  Wang shares her journey from aspiring to influence change in China to facing setbacks in the U.S., where policies under President Trump led to the shutdown of Voice of America and funding cuts to organizations like Freedom House, directly impacting her work ([28:08]).

• Hope Amidst Challenges
  Despite these obstacles, Wang offers an optimistic message: "Believe in yourself. Believe in your neighbors. Believe in the fundamental yearning, the fundamental belief in democracy and human rights. We will prevail" ([30:16]).

7. Concluding Insights and Future Outlook

The episode wraps up with a reflection on the resilience of democratic institutions and the role of individual and collective action in safeguarding democracy. While acknowledging the significant challenges and the damage done to democratic norms, the voices featured in the episode advocate for continued vigilance and active participation to prevent further erosion of democratic values.

Notable Quotes

• Stephen Levitsky [04:56]:
  "Coming from a country where occasionally they sort of disappear activists from the streets, this felt like a very familiar pattern."

• Fulja Pinar [11:34]:
  "Many of my professors, mentors, colleagues were criminalized while I was still there, just for advocating for peace or labor rights or unionization rights."

• Shebnam Gumushu [15:14]:
  "Resisting is not enough. You have to understand their grievances and respond carefully."

• Yaqiao Wang [30:16]:
  "Believe in yourself. Believe in your neighbors. Believe in the fundamental yearning, the fundamental belief in democracy and human rights. We will prevail."

This episode of Up First offers a comprehensive examination of the fragile state of American democracy, enriched by expert analyses and personal stories that highlight both the risks and the enduring spirit to defend democratic principles. It serves as a crucial resource for listeners seeking to understand the complexities and challenges facing the United States today.