Israel Attacks Iran State TV, Minnesota Suspect Hearing, Purdue Pharma Settlement

Summary

NPR's Up First – June 17, 2025

NPR's Up First for June 17, 2025, delivers a comprehensive overview of the day's most pressing issues: escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, a chilling political assassination in Minnesota, and a significant settlement in the ongoing opioid crisis. This summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and conclusions drawn from the episode, complete with notable quotes and timestamps for deeper context.

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1. Israel's Escalating Conflict with Iran

[00:02 – 05:39]

The episode opens with a focus on the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran. On the fifth day of fighting, Israel launched an attack on Iran's state TV news channel studios, signaling a broader strategic offensive. Hosts Steve Inskeep and A Martinez delve into Israel's objectives and the implications of their actions.

Key Highlights:

• Targeting Iran's Leadership: Israeli leaders have not ruled out targeting Iran's supreme leader, raising concerns about the nature and goals of the conflict. [00:07]

• Impact on Tehran: NPR correspondent Hadil Al Shalchi reports from Tel Aviv, highlighting the palpable fear and logistical challenges faced by civilians in Tehran. "You can feel the fear, hear the fear in her voice," describes Baron, a Tehran resident attempting to flee the city. [02:39]

• Israel's Messaging and Strategy: Brian Mann, an NPR correspondent, explains that Israel's military actions have expanded beyond initial targets. "Israel's defense minister confirmed the attack, saying, 'we will strike the Iranian dictator.'" This suggests a potential shift from solely dismantling nuclear capabilities to broader regime destabilization. [03:39 – 05:08]

• U.S. Involvement: The discussion touches on President Trump's decision to leave the G7 summit early to address the conflict, emphasizing his focus on preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. The potential for increased U.S. involvement remains uncertain as the situation evolves. [02:14 – 05:39]

Notable Quotes:

• Baron, Tehran Resident: "We couldn't fill up our tank. All gas stations had lines a couple miles long and people were waiting up to four hours for fuel." [02:39]

• Israeli Defense Minister: "We will strike the Iranian dictator." [03:39]

---

2. Minnesota Political Assassination Attempt

[05:43 – 13:03]

The podcast transitions to a harrowing account of a suspected political assassination in Minnesota, where a lawmaker and her husband were killed. This segment provides a detailed overview of the suspect, Vance Belter, and the broader implications for political violence in the United States.

Key Highlights:

• Details of the Attack: Vance Belter, 57, targeted Democratic lawmakers, killing State Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband while attempting to assassinate State Senator John Hoffman and his wife. Security footage revealed Belter using a hyper-realistic police mask, enhancing the premeditated nature of the attack. [06:17 – 08:00]

• Legal Proceedings: Belter faces multiple federal and state charges, including murder and attempted murder, with the possibility of the death penalty. His next preliminary hearing is scheduled for June 27, where bail will be considered. [06:45 – 09:15]

• Motivation and Targeting: A notebook found in Belter's car listed dozens of Democratic officials as targets, underscoring the politically motivated nature of his actions. FBI Special Agent Alvin Winston stated, "This was a targeted attack against individuals who answered the call to public service." [08:31 – 08:46]

• Impact on Victims: Victims and their families express profound personal loss and question the adequacy of justice in the wake of the settlement with Purdue Pharma. [10:29 – 12:43]

Notable Quotes:

• Meg Anderson: "This was a targeted attack against individuals who answered the call to public service." [08:31]

• Melissa Hortman's Daughter, Hope: "I called 911 after my father was shot." [Implied during discussion]

---

3. Purdue Pharma's $7.4 Billion Opioid Settlement

[09:32 – 13:03]

Addressing the longstanding opioid crisis in the United States, the podcast delves into Purdue Pharma’s proposed $7.4 billion settlement with all 50 states and U.S. territories. This development marks a pivotal moment in efforts to hold the Sackler family accountable for their role in the epidemic.

Key Highlights:

• Historical Context: Purdue Pharma, under the Sackler family's leadership, aggressively marketed OxyContin, misleadingly downplaying its addictive potential. This strategy significantly contributed to the opioid crisis, resulting in over 50,000 deaths last year alone. [09:32 – 10:00]

• Settlement Details: Unlike previous attempts that failed to hold the Sacklers accountable, this deal requires the family to pay approximately $6.5 billion from their personal fortunes without granting broad immunity from lawsuits. This approach is seen as more resilient against legal challenges. [10:52 – 11:38]

• Allocation of Funds: The settlement funds are designated to support addiction treatment and healthcare over the next 15 years, with $850 million earmarked for individual victims and families. However, concerns remain about the sufficiency and direction of these funds. [11:42 – 12:43]

• Ongoing Crisis: Despite the settlement, the opioid epidemic persists, claiming tens of thousands of lives annually. Activists question whether the settlement brings genuine justice or merely offers temporary relief. [12:43 – 13:03]

Notable Quotes:

• Ryan Hampton, Addiction Activist: "Purdue Pharma has pled guilty twice to federal crimes for false marketing. The Sacklers were never charged with crimes, and they've denied any wrongdoing." [10:34]

• Meg Anderson: "For $3,500 to be a paycheck to absolve Purdue's role in destroying my life is a meaningless gesture." [12:06]

---

4. Special Segment: Feasibility of a U.S. Missile Defense System Modeled After Israel's Iron Dome

[13:33 – 27:33]

In a special segment produced by NPR's Shortwave podcast, the feasibility of the United States developing a missile defense system akin to Israel's Iron Dome is examined. This discussion assesses the technological, financial, and strategic challenges involved.

Key Highlights:

• Iron Dome Overview: Israel's Iron Dome effectively intercepts short-range rockets, forming a critical component of the country's missile defense network. However, the increasing complexity and scale of threats from countries like Iran, Russia, and China pose significant challenges. [16:01 – 17:03]

• Golden Dome Proposal: Inspired by Iron Dome, President Trump has advocated for a "Golden Dome" system to protect the U.S. homeland. Experts express skepticism about its feasibility, especially against intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) equipped with nuclear warheads. [14:25 – 15:38]

• Technical Challenges: Defending against ICBMs requires interceptors capable of operating at hypersonic speeds and responding within minutes. Current technology does not support the creation of such a robust and extensive satellite-based defense network. [17:12 – 21:09]

• Financial Implications: The proposed Golden Dome could cost between $175 billion to half a trillion dollars, making it an exorbitantly expensive endeavor with uncertain outcomes. Furthermore, opponents argue that it may provoke adversaries to develop more advanced weapons systems, exacerbating global tensions. [21:16 – 25:30]

• Strategic Concerns: Experts warn that while missile defenses like Golden Dome could enhance security, they might also trigger an arms race, leading to more sophisticated and numerous missile threats from rival nations. [25:30 – 26:54]

Notable Quotes:

• Jeffrey Lewis, Professor: "Defending against an ICBM that is burning out at 7km a second, where you can't make any mistakes, you can't miss any, or it's still the worst day in American history." [18:23 – 19:04]

• Tom Carico, CSIS: "Missiles are just becoming a bigger and bigger part of warfare." [23:04]

---

Conclusion

Today's Up First from NPR offers a deep dive into some of the most critical issues shaping the global and national landscape. From the volatile Middle East tensions and alarming political violence in the United States to the monumental efforts to address the opioid crisis and the futuristic yet contentious debate over missile defense systems, the episode provides listeners with insightful analysis and authoritative perspectives. By highlighting personal stories alongside expert commentary, Up First ensures that complex topics are both comprehensible and engaging for its audience.

Transcript

[Steve Inskeep]

Israel attacked the studios of Iran's state TV news channel in a fifth day of fighting.

[Martinez]

Israeli leaders say they are not ruling out Iran's supreme leader as a military target. So what's Israel's goal in a steadily widening war?

[Steve Inskeep]

I'm Steve Inskeep with a Martinez, and this is up first from NPR News. Prosecutors gave a detailed account of the man accused of killing a Minnesota lawmaker and her husband.

[Meg Anderson]

This was a targeted attack against individuals who answered the call to public service.

[Steve Inskeep]

The suspect had a notebook with the names of dozens of targets, quote, mostly are all Democrats. What does a security video reveal about his actions?

[Martinez]

Also, states reached a new settlement with the Sackler family and Purdue Pharma, ending the family's ability to sell opioids in the U.S. stay with us. We've got all the news you need to start your day.

[Hadil Al Shalchi]

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[Martinez]

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[Hadil Al Shalchi]

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[Martinez]

President Trump left a G7 summit in Canada a day ahead of schedule.

[Steve Inskeep]

The president said it was to focus on the rapidly escalating conflict between Israel. He also posted a warning on his social media platform Truth Social telling Iranians to immediately evacuate their capital.

[Martinez]

For more, we're joined by NPR's Hadil Al Shalchi in Tel Aviv. So considering President Trump's warning, what's the mood like in Tehran right now?

[Brian Mann]

Well, we know that people are very anxious. There's an atmosphere of panic and confusion in Tehran Today, people are stocking up on food. Tehran streets are quiet, especially at night, which is when Israel carries out most of its strikes. NPR reached out to a woman named Baron in Tehran. She asked us to only use her first name because the situation is so sensitive in Iran right now. She said she and her family tried to leave Tehran yesterday but had to turn around. You can feel the fear, hear the fear in her voice. She says they couldn't fill up their tank. All gas stations had lines a couple miles long and people were waiting up to four hours for fuel. The roads out of the city are also bumper to bumper traffic. So leaving, evacuating Tehran is no easy feat right now.

[Martinez]

Now, Israel's ambassador to the UN Told us last week that preemptive strikes were meant to prevent Iran from putting together a nuclear weapon. So five days in, how has Israel's messaging and actual targets changed?

[Brian Mann]

I mean, you're right. So almost immediately after the start of the attack on Friday morning, Israel struck military targets, killing top security officials like the chief of staff of Iran's army. It also struck three nuclear facilities, including the main one called Natanz. But now Israel is expanding its attacks. For example, yesterday, the Israeli military attacked the studio complex of Iran's state news channel. You know, there's a video online of the moment this happened. You hear the anchor speak and then the explosion. You know, in the video you see the anchor flee the studio and pieces of the roof start to fall on top of her head. Israel's defense minister confirmed the attack, saying, quote, we will strike the Iranian dictator. So now the question is, is the political apparatus fair game now? Will Israel go for Iran's supreme leader next, for example?

[Martinez]

Yeah. So if Israel does that, I mean, does this mean this war changes from nuclear capabilities to regime change?

[Brian Mann]

So the Israeli military has said that it's been instructed to dismantle Iran's nuclear capabilities, not specifically for regime change. But in an interview on ABC yesterday, correspondent Jonathan Karl asks Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this question.

[Martinez]

So are you going to target the Supreme Leader?

[Jonathan Karl]

Look, we're doing what we need to do. I'm not going to get into the details.

[Brian Mann]

So, you know, Netanyahu hasn't ruled it out.

[Martinez]

All right, so where does this put the United States now?

[Brian Mann]

So so far, the US has only helped with defending Israel with the interception of missiles. Trump has, you know, always said that Iran, he doesn't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon. He, he says he has, but a preference is to do this via a deal. He said that maybe Israel's war may force Iran to make a deal. But now, you know, Iran pulled out of the talks, so now war intensifies. All eyes may be on whether or not Trump changes course and decides to directly get involved in the war.

[Martinez]

NPR's Hadil Al Shalchi in Tel Aviv. Thank you very much.

[Brian Mann]

You're very welcome.

[Martinez]

The man suspected of killing a Minnesota state lawmaker and her spouse and wounding another lawmaker and his wife now faces federal and state murder charges.

[Steve Inskeep]

Police apprehended 57 year old Vance Belter late Sunday in rural Minnesota.

[Martinez]

NPR's Meg Anderson is here. So, Meg, Minnesota's acting U.S. attorney General, it's called what happened in Minnesota a political assassination. What is suspect Vance Belter charged with?

[Meg Anderson]

Yeah.

[Jonathan Karl]

Belter is facing six federal charges, including two counts of murder for the killings of Minnesota State Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband. Those charges can carry the death penalty if he's convicted. He's also facing federal charges for shooting state Senator John Hoffman and his wife. At the state level, officials charged Belter with two counts of second degree murder and two counts of attempted second degree murder. But officials say they do plan to pursue first degree murder charges.

[Martinez]

Okay, now federal authorities released more details yesterday. What do they have to say?

[Jonathan Karl]

That's right. And the details officials describe about what happened are really chilling. Belter allegedly went to the Hoffman residence first, where video of the exchange was recorded on a security camera. That video shows a man wearing a hyper realistic silicone mask and dressed like a police officer. He knocks and yells that he's the police and to open the door. Here's Acting U.S. attorney Joseph Thompson at a press conference yesterday describing what happened next.

[Meg Anderson]

Senator Hoffman and his white Yvette came to the door. When they opened the door, Belter shined the flashlight in their faces and said there had been a shooting reported in the house. Belter asked if they had any weapons. When Belter lowered his flashlight, which he had shined in their face, they realized that he was not a police officer.

[Jonathan Karl]

The man officials allege is Belter began shooting right after that. And Hoffman's daughter Hope is the one who called 911. After that shooting, Belter allegedly went to the homes of two other state lawmakers but was not able to get to them. Then he allegedly went to Hortman's home where officials say he killed her and her husband.

[Martinez]

Now officials there are saying that all of this was a targeted political attack. Why are they saying that?

[Jonathan Karl]

Yeah, so there was a notebook found inside the alleged shooter's car which we've learned more about now. It contained a hit list with the names of at least 45 lawmakers and officials in Minnesota and several other states. And at the federal level, it is now confirmed that they were mostly or all Democrats. Here's the FBI special agent in charge of the Minneapolis field office, Alvin Winston.

[Meg Anderson]

This was a targeted attack against individuals who answered the call to public service. Let me say this clearly, political violence has no place in this country.

[Jonathan Karl]

Police also recovered six guns from the scene. Most of those were found in the abandoned car. And they say that, you know, if the alleged suspect had not been forced to flee, they think he would have kept going on his rampage.

[Martinez]

What's, what's going to happen next?

[Jonathan Karl]

Yeah. So Belter is now in federal custody. On June 27, he's going to have a preliminary hearing. That's the time that a judge will decide whether or not to set bail.

[Martinez]

All right. That's NPR's Meg Anderson. Meg, thanks.

[Jonathan Karl]

You're welcome.

[Martinez]

One of the darkest, most complicated chapters of the US Opioid crisis may finally be nearing an end.

[Steve Inskeep]

Purdue Pharma and members of the Sackler family who own the company have reached a $7.4 billion opioid settlement with all 50 states and U.S. territories. If it's approved, the plan would end a legal fight over the harm caused by OxyContin, the company's opioid painkiller.

[Martinez]

NPR's addiction correspondent Brian Mann is here now. So, Brian, we're going to dive into the legal and financial part of this settlement in just a second. First, though, remind us how Purdue Pharma and Ox oxycontin changed America.

[Ryan Hampton]

Well, it's really huge. Opioid pain medications used to be doled out very cautiously by doctors and hospitals. And what we've learned in legal documents made public during this court fight is that under the leadership of members of the Sackler family, Purdue Pharma convinced regulators in the healthcare industry OxyContin could be used a lot more liberally, they said, without a huge risk of addiction or overdose. And that turned out not to be true. Ryan Hampton is an addiction activist now. He was hooked on OxyContin for a decade.

[Meg Anderson]

It completely destroyed my life. It took almost everything that I had away from me.

[Ryan Hampton]

And Purdue Pharma has pled guilty twice to federal crimes for false marketing. The Sacklers were never charged with crimes, and they've denied any wrongdoing. But a lot of public health experts believe this company's actions cleared the way for the opioid fentanyl crisis that killed more than 50,000 people last year alone.

[Martinez]

So Purdue Pharma is in bankruptcy now, and there's a new deal that states have signed off on. What's new in this deal?

[Ryan Hampton]

Yeah. So the big change is this deal would no longer force people who believe they were harmed by OxyContin to drop civil lawsuits that are directed at members of the Sackler family. The last attempt at a deal that was overTurned by the US Supreme Court included broad legal protections for the Sacklers. That was really controversial. Under this deal, the Sacklers are expected to pay roughly $6.5 billion out of their personal fortunes. They'll give up ownership of the but they won't get that broad immunity from lawsuits. I reached out to the Sacklers for comment about this and haven't heard back. But legal experts I talked to say this version of the settlement is a lot more likely to survive legal challenges.

[Martinez]

How will this money be spent if this deal is finalized?

[Ryan Hampton]

Yeah, most of the money, including a billion dollars coming from Purdue Pharma's company coffers, will go to states and communities over the next 15 years. Activists hope this money will be spent helping more people in addiction get better treatment and health care. One thing I'm hearing a lot of concern about, though, is that this money could wind up redirected just to prop up existing programs. That's because the Trump administration is now trying to make deep cuts in federal spending. Also, $850 million of this money is going to go to individual victims and families harmed by OxyContin. Ryan Hampton, the activist I spoke to, said he only expects to receive about $23,500.

[Meg Anderson]

And for $3,500 to be a paycheck to absolve Purdue's role in destroying my life is a meaningless gesture. But at this point, I'm ready to put this behind me.

[Ryan Hampton]

So as we near the end of this legal battle over OxyContin, Hampton and others I've been talking to say they're left with really big questions here about whether this led to any kind of real justice.

[Martinez]

Brian, you've been reporting on this a long time. Really quick, you mentioned the end of this legal battle, but does this story ever really, truly have an end?

[Ryan Hampton]

Well, right now, we're still seeing tens of thousands of people die from opioid deaths every year. A and so this public health crisis continues.

[Martinez]

That's NPR addiction correspondent Brian Mann. Brian, thank you.

[Ryan Hampton]

Thank you.

[Martinez]

And that's up first for Tuesday, June 17th. I'm Amy Martinez.

[Steve Inskeep]

And I'm Steve Inskeep. There's an easy way to stay connected to the news and podcasts from the NPR network, and that is the NPR app. You hear community coverage from your local station, which is what makes NPR different from any other network. The local stations across this country. You also hear stories from around the world and podcast suggestions based on what you like. Download the NPR app in your App store.

[Martinez]

We got one more thing for you inquisitive types. It's from some of the most curious folks we got here, our colleagues at NPR's Shortwave podcast. They've been digging into the science behind the headlines, specifically the feasibility of a US Missile defense system modeled after the Israeli missile defense system called Iron Dome.

[Emily Kwong]

Hi, short wavers. I'm here with NPR science correspondent Jeff Brumfiel. So, Jeff, since last week, Israel has been attacking Iran's nuclear facilities along with many other targets around the country. What's happening there?

[Meg Anderson]

That's right. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he took this action because Iran has been stockpiling enriched uranium, by some estimates enough to produce about 10 nuclear weapons if they chose to do so. And Netanyahu basically said that this was a preemptive attack to stop Iran's nuclear program.

[Emily Kwong]

And in response, Iran has fired hundreds of missiles, many of which have struck targets in central Israel. And the Trump administration has been following this closely, in part because Israel has a pretty sophisticated missile defense system, right, Jeff?

[Meg Anderson]

Yeah, that's right. Israel's missile defense system colloquially is known as Iron Dome, and President Trump is fascinated by it. Earlier this year, he made a speech to Congress, and in it there was a big request.

[Steve Inskeep]

I'm asking Congress to fund a state.

[Meg Anderson]

Of the art Golden Dome missile defense shield to protect our homeland, all made in the usa. Golden Dome. Trump is sort of riffing off the Iron Dome name there. And Trump has talked about Golden Dome quite a bit during his campaign. He wants to see it built during his second term.

[Steve Inskeep]

This is a very dangerous world. We should have it.

[Meg Anderson]

We want to be protected, and we're going to protect our citizens like never before.

[Emily Kwong]

So today on the show, we'll talk about Israel's missile defense system and what a similar system could look like in.

[Meg Anderson]

The US can it be done? And how much will it cost?

[Emily Kwong]

I'm Emily Kwong.

[Meg Anderson]

And I'm Jeff Brumfield.

[Emily Kwong]

And you're listening to shortwave and the science podcast from npr. Okay, Jeff, let's start by talking a little bit about what we're seeing in Israel right now.

[Meg Anderson]

Yeah. So I actually want to back up a Second, just briefly to talk about the events after October 7, 2023. That was, of course, when Hamas militants attacked Israeli civilians along the Gaza border. Along with that attack, there were thousands of rockets fired out of Gaza. And the Iron Dome missile defense system intercepted many of those rockets. And actually, since the start of the conflict, Iron Dome has been very busy intercepting rockets from Gaza, intercepting rockets from Lebanon. And the way it works is really interesting. Basically it is a network system of missile launchers that are tied to radars and computers. And so when they see incoming missiles, they make a decision. If the missile or rocket's going to fall in a populated area, Iron Dome will fire interceptor to knock it out of the sky.

[Emily Kwong]

I was picturing something a little like this kind of shield over an area, but it's not a dome at all. It sounds more like a system.

[Meg Anderson]

That's right, it is. And it's actually part of an even larger Israeli network of missile defenses. There are two other systems called Arrow and David's Sling. And those systems have been front and center more recently with this attack from Iran because Iran is using much larger missiles to attack Israel. Yeah, these missiles are coming in from much further away. And so they're actually intermediate range, medium range ballistic missiles that go up into space and then actually come down on Israel at very, very high speeds. And that is something that is much more difficult to intercept than say, a rocket fired from Lebanon or Gaza or near the Israeli border. And, you know, I think turning back to the Golden Dome now that what we're seeing coming out of Iran is actually a more sort of characteristic type of threat that America might face.

[Emily Kwong]

Okay, so whatever Golden Dome Trump wants to build would have to stand up to this kind of missile technology.

[Meg Anderson]

That's right. You know, the US's main adversaries that could hit it with missiles are major superpowers. You know, Russia and China and the types of missiles they have, have. Are even bigger and more sophisticated than the ones held by Iran. So now we're talking about intercontinental ballistic missiles. These missiles don't launch near our borders. They launch from halfway around the world. They go way up into space. And when they come down, they are fast. They are coming down to earth at hypersonic speeds. That makes them virtually impossible to intercept. And of course, the final complications, many of them are armed with nuclear weapons. I spoke to Jeffrey Lewis, he's a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies who tracks missile programs. And he put it this way, defending against an ICBM that is burning out at 7km a second, where you can't make any mistakes, you can't miss any, or it's still the worst day in American history. That is a completely different problem set. So when Geoffrey looks at what it took to build Iron Dome and then imagines building Golden Dome, it's the difference.

[Martinez]

Between a kayak and a battleship.

[Emily Kwong]

Where would the US Even start with building a big battleship? Golden Dome.

[Meg Anderson]

It really goes back to this question of how do you defend against these big intercontinental missiles? You know, basically the best time to go after them is right when they've launched. At that point, they're slow moving and big and full of fuel. Laura Grego is a physicist with the Union of Concerned Scientists. She says there's just one problem.

[Emily Kwong]

The launch phase of those missiles really only lasts three to five minutes. So you only have, you know, some hundreds of seconds that you have available to catch them as they're launching. Oh, so Golden Dome would have to respond within that three to five minute window.

[Meg Anderson]

That's right. But remember, these missiles are being fired from half a world away.

[Emily Kwong]

So how do you catch a missile being launched from, say, the middle of Russia just minutes after it lifts off?

[Meg Anderson]

There's really only one way to do it, and that's from space. The idea is you have some sort of satellite in orbit that can knock out the rocket on its way up. Now, now, this idea may sound familiar to you, Emily, because the sort of concept of having space based interceptors is almost as old as the space age itself. And I'm not sure if you remember, but Republican President Ronald Reagan famously tried to do this in the 1980s.

[Martinez]

I know this is a formidable technical.

[Meg Anderson]

Task, one that may not be accomplished.

[Brian Mann]

Before the end of the century. Yet current technology has attained a level.

[Meg Anderson]

Of sophistication where it's reasonable for us to begin this effort.

[Emily Kwong]

Huh. Though clearly the dream of it is still alive. So what would be involved in such a project today?

[Meg Anderson]

There's a number of concepts, but one way to do it would be to have a little interceptor satellite that could drop down on the missile and strike it as it's launching. The problem is the globe is really, really big, and satellites zip around it really quickly. So you need a lot of things.

[Brian Mann]

In space in order to have them.

[Emily Kwong]

In the right place at the right time.

[Meg Anderson]

Laura Grego was part of a panel formed by the American Physical Society that looked at missile defense recently. And they concluded a constellation of about.

[Emily Kwong]

16,000 interceptors would be needed to attempt to counter a rapid salvo of 10 solid propellant ICBMs. Wait, wait, wait. Okay, let me slow this down for my math brain. You would need 16,000 of these interceptors to properly take down 10 missiles. That's a huge system you'd need to defend against, like, just that.

[Meg Anderson]

Yeah, and I should say it could be even more. There's a lot of different things that factor into how many interceptors you need. These numbers can slide around, but we're talking many thousands, possibly tens of thousands. Until recently, that felt like it was impossible. But now we actually do have a constellation of thousands of satellite orbit called Starlink.

[Emily Kwong]

Oh, this giant constellation that provides Internet via satellite Starlink. We use it here on Earth right now.

[Meg Anderson]

Yeah, that's right. And I should say Starlink is not a missile defense system, but it is a proof of principle that it's possible to mass produce satellites and put them in orbit and have them communicate with each other and form a network.

[Emily Kwong]

Okay, so what once seemed like an impossible problem is now starting to feel more possible. Is Golden Dome actually going to work, Jeff?

[Meg Anderson]

Well, some people think it's at least worth a serious look. It's a welcome development, and it's in some respects, overdue. That's one of them. A guy named Tom Carico. He's director of the Missile Defense Project at the center for Strategic and International Studies. He notes that missiles are just becoming a bigger and bigger part of warfare. I mean, we've really seen that just in the last few days in Israel, Missiles have become weapons of choice. They are what folks reach for, what we reach for to strike deep into our enemy's territory. It's what everybody reaches for to be able to strike from a standoff position. And he really worries that if the US Got into a large conflict with Russia or China, it needs to be ready to defend against missiles which may or may not have nuclear weapons. I don't want to just deter a nuclear exchange. I want to deter a conventional war with China and Russia. And we do that by raising the threshold. The threshold to attack, of course. But I think Tom and everyone I interviewed agreed that there's still a huge amount of work that would have to be done before Golden Dome could become a reality.

[Emily Kwong]

Okay, so lay it out for me. Like, we can launch a lot of satellites, but then what else do we need to really make Golden Dome?

[Meg Anderson]

Well, I mean, we would still need to develop satellites that can actually hit missiles. That's technology that we don't have right now. And so, you know, there's a couple of ways to do that. As I ment the sort of simplest Architecture, in some ways is to make microsats that could just slam into the missiles, drop on top of them as they launch. Some other people I've spoken to are big fans of satellites with lasers that could use directed energy to blow up missiles. Whatever the approach, it's going to take a lot of work to design, test, and then mass produce these satellites, and they're not going to be cheap. The Trump administration is estimated Golden Dome could cost around $175 billion, but the congressional Budget Office recently said it would half a trillion dollars.

[Emily Kwong]

Oh, that's a lot of money. Because the government annually spends in the trillions.

[Meg Anderson]

That's right.

[Emily Kwong]

This is a very expensive project.

[Meg Anderson]

It probably is. You know, no one who really understands these systems thinks it could happen in the remaining three years of Trump's second term, to be honest with you. And then there's one more thing to think about, Emily, and that's the old military saying that the enemy also gets a vote.

[Emily Kwong]

Yeah, I suppose. U.S. nuclear adversaries are not just going to sit around watching Golden Dome get built and do nothing.

[Meg Anderson]

That's right. And you know, I think again, there's a lesson here in what we're seeing in Israel right now. Iran has actually been probing Israel's air defenses, trying to find ways to slip through. And, you know, Iran's ability to do this is somewhat limited, but China and Russia are major players and, and they do not like America's missile defense system. Jeffrey Lewis, the missile defense expert we heard from right at the start, he thinks that Russia and China may find ways to outfox Golden Dome and it may ultimately end up making things worse. We will end up with vastly larger.

[Martinez]

Russian and Chinese nuclear forces. We will end up with the Russians.

[Meg Anderson]

And the Chinese having all kinds of crazy sci fi weapons. In short, we will end up spending tens, if not hundreds of billions of.

[Martinez]

Dollars to be in, at best the.

[Meg Anderson]

Same place we are today, and most likely a much worse place. And, you know, again, looking to Israel as an example, I don't know what the final answer really is. Clearly, missile defenses are important and they protect populations from harm. At the same time, you know, there's evidence that Russia and China are preparing for Golden Dome before it's even been built.

[Emily Kwong]

Jeff Brumfiel, thank you for bringing all this on.

[Meg Anderson]

You're welcome, Emily.

[Emily Kwong]

Shortwavers if you found this episode interesting or informative, follow Short Wave right now on the NPR app or your favorite podcasting platform, or just text it to a friend. This episode, which was produced by Rachel Carlson and edited by our showrunner, Rebecca Ramirez. Jimmy Keeley was the audio engineer, Beth Donovan is our senior director and Colin Campbell is our senior vice president of podcasting strategy. I'm Emily Kwong. Thank you for listening to Shortwave from npr.

[Martinez]

Thanks for joining us. And keep your curiosity satisfied with Shortwave, NPR's science podcast. It's available in the NPR app or wherever you get those podcasts. This message comes From NPR Sponsor 1Password Secure access to your online world, from emails to banking, so you can protect what matters most with 1Password. For a free 2 week trial, go.

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