Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire, Protests in Pakistan, Trump Threatens Tariffs

Summary

Up First from NPR – November 27, 2024

NPR's “Up First” delivers the three biggest stories of the day with in-depth reporting and analysis. In this episode, hosted by A. Martinez, Rob Schmitz, and Lauren Frayer, the key topics include the newly established Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, the violent protests in Pakistan demanding the release of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, and President Elect Donald Trump's threats to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China to combat fentanyl trafficking and unauthorized migration.

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1. Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire

Ceasefire Implementation and Celebration

At 00:03, Rob Schmitz announces that a 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has officially begun. A. Martinez provides context, noting that this marks the deadliest conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in decades. Lauren Frayer adds, “So what happens now for people displaced by war?” highlighting the immediate concerns following the ceasefire.

On-the-Ground Reporting from Lebanon

Lauren Frayer connects with NPR’s Dia Hadid in Sidon, southern Lebanon, at 02:35 to provide a vivid account of the ceasefire’s reception. Dia describes the celebratory atmosphere: “I was awoken by this celebratory gunfire erupting across the city, sort of mixed with the dawn call to prayer from mosques across the city” (02:44). Families are seen rejoicing, though the devastation remains palpable as Dia observes, “Parts of Lebanon, particularly in the south and Beirut's southern suburbs look like Gaza. They've been completely destroyed” (05:21).

Details of the Ceasefire Agreement

Dia explains the terms of the ceasefire at 04:27:

• Duration: 60 days, extending to Donald Trump's inauguration.
• Conditions: Israel will withdraw ground troops from Lebanon and halt airstrikes.
• Hezbollah's Move: Fighters and weapons will relocate north of the Litani River, approximately 20 miles from the Israeli border.
• Monitoring: The Lebanese army, alongside UN peacekeepers, will oversee the implementation.

Despite the tense history, the ceasefire appears stable with minimal incidents reported so far, though underlying tensions remain, especially regarding displaced populations and reconstruction efforts.

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2. Protests in Pakistan Demanding Imran Khan’s Release

Violent Clashes in Islamabad

At 00:26, Rob Schmitz reports on the dispersal of thousands of protesters in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, who marched to demand the release of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan. A. Martinez shares the chaotic scene: “All you could see was tear gas and it was just a lot of chaos” (00:26).

Detailed Coverage and Eyewitness Accounts

Dia Hadid and Michael Kugelman provide in-depth analysis from Mumbai:

• Violence and Casualties: Protesters reached downtown Islamabad despite tear gas barricades, leading to violent clashes. “Six people were killed on Tuesday, including four security personnel,” reports Michael Kugelman (07:09).
• Government Crackdown: Paramilitary forces violently dispersed protesters overnight. A Martinez recounts witnessing the chaos: “I was between the crowd at that time. My dad and I saw a body fall in front of us...I could hear bullets being shot at people” (07:53).
• Public Sentiment: A young woman expressed fear of detention, while Imran Khan’s supporters accuse the army of rigging elections and losing faith in public institutions (09:10).

Expert Analysis on Political Crisis

Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre, explains the root of the unrest: “This violence reflects a crisis of legitimacy...many Khan supporters see the army as having rigged elections this February” (08:44). The ongoing conflict between Khan’s faction and the military highlights a fragile political landscape with no immediate resolution in sight.

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3. President Elect Trump Threatens Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China

Tariff Threats Explained

At 10:31, Lauren Frayer introduces President Elect Donald Trump's recent announcement to impose a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% on items from China. Trump's stated goal is to curb the flow of fentanyl and unauthorized migrants into the United States.

Expert Opinions on Feasibility and Impact

Brian Mann, NPR’s addiction correspondent, offers critical insights:

• Unachievable Goals: “That is an unachievable goal” states Dia Hadid (12:20), echoing expert consensus that completely stopping fentanyl smuggling and illegal migration through tariffs is unrealistic.
• Economic Consequences: Brian Mann warns, “This kind of trade fight could boost prices for American consumers at a time when inflation is still a problem” (14:24). Economists agree that tariffs function as taxes on goods, potentially disrupting supply chains and harming both workers and consumers.

Responses from Affected Countries

• Mexico: President Claudia Schoenbaum dismisses the link between fentanyl and migration control, emphasizing a public health approach to addiction and cautioning against a trade war (13:14).
• China: Chinese officials indicate that entities like the Counternarcotics Corporation would be severely impacted by such tariffs, potentially leading to reduced cooperation with US law enforcement (13:23).

Current State of the Fentanyl Crisis

Despite Trump's assertions, data shows a decline in fentanyl-related deaths, with “about 16,000 fewer deaths” reported (11:43). Experts attribute this improvement to better healthcare and treatment methods, raising concerns that Trump's proposed tariffs could undermine effective public health initiatives.

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Conclusion

This episode of Up First provides comprehensive coverage of significant international and national issues shaping the current geopolitical and social landscape. From the fragile peace between Israel and Lebanon and the tumultuous political climate in Pakistan, to the contentious economic policies proposed by President Elect Trump, NPR delivers nuanced insights and expert analysis to inform listeners about the complexities of these critical events.

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For more detailed reporting and analysis, subscribe to NPR’s Up First and support your local NPR station at donate.npr.org.

Transcript

[Rob Schmitz]

A 60 day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has gone into effect.

[A Martinez]

This has been the deadliest conflict between.

[Lauren Frayer]

Israel and Hezbollah in decades. So what happens now for people displaced by war?

[Rob Schmitz]

I'm Rob Schmitz. That's a Martinez. And this is up first from NPR News. Security forces dispersed thousands of protesters in Pakistan's capital last night.

[A Martinez]

All you could see was tear gas and it was just a lot of chaos.

[Rob Schmitz]

They're demanding jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan be released. Will they get their way?

[Lauren Frayer]

And President Elect Trump has threatened tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China in a bid to stem the flow of fentanyl and unauthorized migrants.

[Brian Mann]

That is an unachievable goal.

[Dia Hadid]

No country will accomplish that.

[Lauren Frayer]

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[Brian Mann]

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[Lauren Frayer]

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[A Martinez]

This message comes from NPR sponsor Merrill. Whatever your financial goals are, you want a straightforward path there. But the real world doesn't usually work that way. Merrill understands that. That's why with a dedicated Merrill advisor, you get a personalized plan and a clear path forward. Go to ML.combullish to learn more. Merrill, a Bank of America company. What would you like the power to do? Investing involves risk. Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner and Smith Inc. Registered Broker Dealer Registered Investment Advisor Member sipc.

[Lauren Frayer]

This message comes from NPR sponsor the Capital One Venture X card. Earn unlimited 2x miles on everything you buy, plus get access to a $300 annual credit for bookings through Capital One Travel. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. [e-mail]. Celebratory gunfire was heard in Lebanon's capital this morning, marking the start of the Israel Lebanon ceasefire.

[Rob Schmitz]

The deal aims to end the fighting across the Israeli Lebanese border that has killed thousands of people since it was ignited by the war in Gaza last year. It was brokered by the US And France and announced by President Biden.

[Lauren Frayer]

For more on the deal, we're joined now by NPR's Lauren Frayer in Sidon in southern Lebanon. So, Lauren, people were celebrating the ceasefire in Beirut. What was it scene like?

[Dia Hadid]

Yeah, I was going to set my alarm for 4am Turns out I didn't need to. I was awoken by this celebratory gunfire erupting across the city, sort of mixed with the dawn call to prayer from mosques across the city. Dogs started howling into the night even before the first light. Evacuees started heading south to try to see if their homes are still there. I'm on the coastal highway. There are minivans packed with families, belongings tied on car roofs, people blasting music, beeping their horns, cheering. A young boy knocked on my car window and handed me a poster of Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in late September. So the mood is definitely festive here, but a lot of these people may find that they don't have homes standing anymore.

[Lauren Frayer]

Have you been able to talk to people along the way? I mean, how are they processing this? I mean, at least it's got to feel like a relief of some kind.

[Dia Hadid]

Here's one woman I spoke with. Her name is Patricia Talib. She's 24. She had stopped on the shoulder of the highway to let one of her children pee on the side of the road. They're from a village in the south that saw fierce ground battles. And the Israeli military has warned people not to return to some of these areas because Israeli troops are still there. They're in retreat, but they are still in this country. And they asked Patricia if she's worried about finding Israeli soldiers in her house to begin with.

[Lauren Frayer]

People are not really intimidated by the entity. We know that this is the end days of the war, and we know that ultimately it's going to be okay. We personally, we stayed for the first week of the war, so we didn't really want to leave our village to begin with. It was only because we were in the way resistance that we actually ended up leaving our village.

[Dia Hadid]

You can hear her kids there in the background. When she says resistance, she means Hezbollah fighters.

[Lauren Frayer]

Now, I know it's new, but can you fill us in on the details of this agreement?

[Dia Hadid]

Yeah. So this is a 60 day truce, which would take us up to Donald Trump's inauguration, incidentally, during which Israel withdraws its ground troops from Lebanon, it halts airstrikes, and in turn, Hezbollah moves its fighters and weapons north of the Litany river. That's about 20 miles away from the Israeli border. The Lebanese army is deploying down into southern Lebanon alongside UN peacekeepers who are already here. And an international committee will be monitoring implementation of this. As for whether this is holding, it apparently seems to be so far There was one incident in which the Israeli military says it identified what it says were Hezbollah operatives returning to areas near the border. It opened fire on them. That doesn't appear to have anything wider.

[Lauren Frayer]

Now, many of the targets of Israeli strikes in Lebanon were either in the nation's south or in and around Beirut. What's the scale of recovery?

[Dia Hadid]

Yeah, I mean, parts of Lebanon, particularly in the south and Beirut's southern suburbs look like Gaza. They've been completely destroyed. This is orders of magnitude compared to the last war here in 2006. And it will take years, perhaps even decades, to rebuild. I'm in Sidon, an ancient port city on the Mediterranean and this is sort, sort of the boundary of southern Lebanon. So, people, the mood has been very jubilant here as people head south and celebrate this ceasefire. But I suspect the mood will really change going south from here.

[Lauren Frayer]

Now, the ceasefire aims to put an end to Hezbollah militant attacks on Israel, which have displaced tens of thousands of people in the nation's north. What's the situation now for them?

[Dia Hadid]

So Israel is still not calling on its residents to return to their abandoned homes in the north of that country. Officials there say there will be a one to two month period of rebuilding before they initiate that return. It's worth mentioning many mayors inside Israel, particularly along that border, opposed this ceasefire. One called it a shameful agreement. They have real security concerns. Not only the fear of a resumption of Hezbollah rocket attacks, but also a possible October 7th like attack.

[Lauren Frayer]

That's NPR's Lauren Frayer. Lauren, thanks.

[Dia Hadid]

You're welcome.

[Rob Schmitz]

Security forces dispersed protesters in the capital of Pakistan overnight.

[Lauren Frayer]

Yeah, that's right. They marched to Islamabad to demand the release of the jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Hundreds of protesters have been arrest since Sunday.

[Rob Schmitz]

With Me now is NPR's Dia Hadid. She covers Pakistan from her base in Mumbai. Good morning, dia.

[Michael Kugelman]

Good morning, Rob.

[Rob Schmitz]

So bring us up to speed. Dio. What happened with these protests and where do things stand?

[Michael Kugelman]

Right, well, protesters had reached downtown Islamabad. They defied tear gas and climbed over shipping containers to get there. There was also violence. Six people were killed on Tuesday, including four security personnel. Journalists covering the march said protesters also attacked them, including an Associated Press cameraman who was taken to hospital. And once protesters had made it to the city centre, they announced a sit in until the former Prime Minister Imran Khan is released. But overnight, paramilitary forces pushed them out. Videos shared by Khan supporters showed smoke, flashing lights, people running, the sound of guns firing. I spoke to a young woman who was there. She requested anonymity she's worried about being detained if identified because there's been crackdowns on Khan supporters.

[A Martinez]

All you could see was tear gas and it was just a lot of chaos. I was between the crowd at that time. My dad and I saw a body fall in front of us. When the firing started, it was all pitch dark, but I could hear bullets being shot at people.

[Rob Schmitz]

Wow, that sounds terrifying.

[Michael Kugelman]

Yeah. Khan's media team say dozens of people were injured and another two people were killed. And following that crackdown, Khan's team called off the protests for now, and the government's interpreted that as a victory for them. The information minister even told local media that protesters ran like cowards. He said they'd even left their shoes behind.

[Rob Schmitz]

So it sounds like the government is taking a very tough line in all of this. What can we expect in the coming days?

[Michael Kugelman]

Well, the coming days may well reflect what we've seen in the past 18 months since Imran Khan was jailed. A cycle of increasingly violent encounters. I spoke to Michael Kugelman. He's the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre, and he says this violence reflects a crisis of legitimacy. At the very top, you have a.

[Brian Mann]

Critical mass of the public that has.

[Dia Hadid]

Essentially lost confidence in public institutions, and that includes the army.

[Michael Kugelman]

It's important to note the army is Pakistan's most powerful institution. It was largely sacrosanct among Pakistanis, and that's changed now. Many Khan supporters see the army as having rigged elections this February to propel this current government to power. So for now, it's an intractable crisis. The army against Khan and his supporters, and now that they've deployed against civilians in the capital, which is quite unusual in Pakistan, it could happen again because nothing's actually been resolved.

[Rob Schmitz]

But for now, the protests have been dispersed, right?

[Michael Kugelman]

Yeah. The government says life's returning to normal. Cars are on the road where the crackdown happened. It's unclear what protesters will do next. Two people I spoke to said they were angry at their protest leaders because they appear to have fled as the crackdown began. That includes Khan's wife, Bushra Bibi. She only appears in a white gown and a face veil, presents herself as a spiritual guru. Now the government's playing on that anger. One minister told local media that these events were the fault of one woman.

[Rob Schmitz]

That's NPR's Dia Hadid. Dia. Thank you.

[Michael Kugelman]

You're welcome, Rob.

[Lauren Frayer]

President elect Donald Trump is threatening a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, and an extra 10% tariff may be put on items from China.

[Rob Schmitz]

According to Trump, those nations are not doing enough to stop undocumented migrants or fentanyl from crossing into the US While arrests of migrants have been on the rise at the northern bor, there are a fraction of those at the southern border where apprehensions are at a four year low.

[Lauren Frayer]

NPR's Brian Mann covers a fentanyl crisis joins us now to take a look at Trump's promise. Now, Brian, it's a social media post right now, not policy quite yet. But what does Donald Trump say he hopes to accomplish with this threat?

[Brian Mann]

Yeah, you're right. A, it's not clear Trump's going to follow through on this. He doesn't take office for a couple months. A lot of negotiations are going to happen before then. What Trump said in social media posts Monday is that these countries aren't doing enough to solve what he describes as two of the biggest problems hitting the US Illegal immigration and fentanyl, which is still killing tens of thousands of people every year. According to Trump, Canada, China and Mexico could collectively easily solve these problems. He added that once imposed, these tariffs would remain in place until drugs, including fentanyl and illegal aliens. Those are his words, stop this invasion of our country.

[Lauren Frayer]

But could China and Mexico really just shut down fentanyl smuggling just like that?

[Brian Mann]

Yeah. Experts I talked to say no, it's just not possible. Jonathan Culkins, a drug policy expert at Carnegie Mellon University, says fentanyl is just really easy to make and smuggle. Unfortunately, it's quite difficult to control fentanyl.

[Lauren Frayer]

Because it's so easy for the illegal supply chains to produce and distribute it.

[Brian Mann]

Vonda Felb Brown is a drug policy expert at the Brookings Institution, and she agrees. What Trump is demanding here, it just isn't going to happen. That is an unachievable goal.

[Dia Hadid]

No country will accomplish that.

[Brian Mann]

What experts say is the best case scenario is that Trump's threats here prompt negotiations that maybe lead to better cooperation on migrants and fentanyl with more realistic goals.

[Lauren Frayer]

Okay, I'm sure they're all going to be talking at some point. So how are these countries responding so far?

[Brian Mann]

Well, you know, first it's important to say most fentanyl does enter the US From Mexico, typically passing through official border crossings. Mexico's President Claudia Schoenbaum responded by saying yesterday fentanyl is primarily a US problem, one that requires a healthcare and treatment response, she says, to reduce addiction. That's been Mexico's position for years. He also suggested US Tariffs linked to fentanyl could trigger a full blown trade war. One other concern I'm hearing from drug policy experts is that a trade fight could unravel what has been growing international cooperation targeting drug traffickers. Again, here's Van de Feld, Van Braun at Brookings.

[Dia Hadid]

Various Chinese officials have told me that the Counternarcotics Corporation would not be able to survive an imposition of substantial tariffs.

[Brian Mann]

So if this power move by Trump doesn't work, we could see China and Mexico backing away from intelligence sharing and other cooperation with US Law enforcement. That could mean less pressure on these gangs that are smuggling fentanyl.

[Lauren Frayer]

Now, Brian, you've been reporting that the fentanyl crisis has been easing in recent months with a lot fewer people dying. So what does Donald Trump say about that?

[Brian Mann]

Well, Trump hasn't actually acknowledged that progress. Writing on social media, he said, we're still seeing drugs coming across the border, and I'm quoting here at levels never seen before. In fact, there's been a huge pop positive shift over the last 12 months. Fatal overdoses, including fentanyl, are dropping fast, about 16,000 fewer deaths. Most experts I talk to credit better health care and treatment. And they worry that Trump's threat here of an international drug and trade war could be a distraction, pulling focus away from a public health response that appears to be helping.

[Lauren Frayer]

So let's broaden the scope then. If these countries cannot meet Donald Trump's big demands on fentanyl and migrants, I mean, how could a tariff war then play out for workers and consumers here.

[Brian Mann]

In the U.S. well, most economists agree tariffs basically work as a tax on goods. This kind of trade fight could boost prices for American consumers at a time when inflation is still a problem. More broadly, we're talking about what could be a messy trade conflict erupting simultaneously between the US and three countries that are all deeply intertwined with American companies and their supply chains. So if Trump does pull the trigger on these tariffs, the disruption could be enormous.

[Lauren Frayer]

That's NPR's addiction correspondent, Brian Mann. Brian, thanks.

[Brian Mann]

Thank you. A.

[Lauren Frayer]

And that's up first for Wednesday, November 27th. Ame Martinez.

[Rob Schmitz]

And I'm Rob Schmitz. For your next listen, why not try Consider this from npr. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has gone toe to toe with world leaders. She led Germany through times of turmoil and became a role model for women. What does she have to say about her legacy? Listen to Consider this from npr.

[Lauren Frayer]

Today's episode of up first was edited by Diedrich Skenke, Ryland Barton, Andrea De Leon, Lisa Thompson, and Mohamed El Bardisi. It was produced by Ziad Butch Nia Dumas and Lily Kiros. We get engineering support from Carly Strange, and our technical director is Nisha Hines. Join us again tomorrow.

[A Martinez]

Want to hear this podcast without sponsor breaks? Amazon prime members can listen to Up First Sponsor free through Amazon Music, or you can also support NPR's vital journalism and get up first [e-mail] that's plus.NPR.org this message comes from NPR sponsor Merrill. Whatever your financial goals are, you want a straightforward path there. But the real world doesn't usually work that way. Merrill understands that. That's why with a dedicated Merrill advisor, you get a personalized plan and a clear path forward. Go to ML.combullish to learn more. Merrill, a Bank of America company. What would you like the power to do? Investing Involves risk Merrill Lynch, Pierce Fenner and Smith Inc. Registered Broker Dealer Registered Investment Advisor Member, SIPC this message comes from NPR sponsor Shopify, the global commerce platform that helps you sell and show up exactly the way you want to customize your online store to your style. Sign up for a $1 per month trial [e-mail] NPR.