Life Inside Iran, Trump and Cuba, Fed Interest Rates

Summary

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Up First (NPR) – March 18, 2026

Life Inside Iran, Trump and Cuba, Fed Interest Rates

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Episode Overview

This episode delivers deep coverage of three major news stories:

1. Escalating conflict and daily life in Iran following the assassination of Iran’s security chief, with a firsthand report from near the border in Iraq.
2. The Trump administration’s aggressive rhetoric and policy toward Cuba, rooted in recent oil sanctions and possible regime change, with insights into U.S. strategy.
3. Federal Reserve policymaking in the face of economic disruptions caused by the Iran conflict and energy price spikes, with implications for interest rates and the job market.

The tone throughout is urgent, insightful, and personal, featuring direct testimony and expert analysis.

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1. Life Inside Iran Amid Escalating Violence

[01:18 – 05:28]

Main Points:

• Missiles and Drones Attacks: Iran has responded to the assassination of its security chief by launching missiles and drones across the region (01:18). Several Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar, have intercepted attacks. Strikes have also hit Tel Aviv and there are deaths reported in Israel.

• On-the-Ground Reporting – Arzu Rezvani in Kurdistan: NPR’s Arzu Rezvani describes the tense atmosphere at the Haji Amran border crossing with Iraq. While conducting interviews, drones were seen overhead—adding to the sense of threat (01:46).

• Fear and Desperation Among Iranians Fleeing:

  • Refugees are deeply afraid to speak, even outside of Iran:

  "One of the most striking things I observed from my border visit was just how terrified people were to speak. I mean, you could see it in their eyes and you could hear it in what they chose not to say."
  — Arzu Rezvani (02:00)

  • One woman broke down, admitting:

  "She burst into tears and told me that she wished the airstrikes on her city had killed her. That between the war and the security crackdown, life had just really become unbearable."
  — Arzu Rezvani (02:46)

• Security Crackdown and Internet Blackouts:

  • Communication with Iranians inside the country is almost impossible due to state-imposed internet blackouts; some access via Starlink.
  • Heavy presence of checkpoints, phone checks for anti-censorship apps, and government texts warning against protests.
  • Some security forces have abandoned their stations for mosques and stadiums (03:09–04:22).

• Wider Military Escalation:

  • Iran is exporting its conflict, with Hezbollah firing rockets into Israel and Israeli strikes in Beirut and Baghdad.
  • Iraq's capital is heavily targeted, and even Erbil experiences nearby explosions (04:29).

Notable Quotes:

• "People say they've been getting text messages, presumably from the government, warning them not to join crowds that might turn into protests."
  — Arzu Rezvani (03:38)

• "If anything, it feels like [the war] is intensifying."
  — Arzu Rezvani (05:17)

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2. Trump Expands Pressure on Cuba

[05:38 – 09:23]

Main Points:

• Trump’s Assertive Rhetoric:

  • President Trump is talking about “expanding the United States” after Venezuela wins a world baseball championship:

  "If you can't beat them, join them. Or make them join you."
  — Michelle Martin, paraphrasing Trump (05:42)

• U.S. Sanctions Squeeze Cuba:

  • The U.S. halted Venezuelan oil exports to Cuba, causing economic distress on the island.
  • "Cuba right now is very bad shape," says a Cuban commentator, foreshadowing government intervention (06:13).

• Talk of Regime Change:

  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio opens the possibility of new leadership:

  "So they're in a lot of trouble. And the people in charge, they don't know how to fix it. So they have to get new people in charge."
  — Marco Rubio (06:56)

• Policy Context and Scenarios:

  • Rubio signals realism and a need for incremental change in Cuba.
  • Mark Feierstein (former Obama official) suggests the situation resembles the 2016 détente but on U.S. terms:

  "Cuba is much more vulnerable now. The United States has a lot more leverage."
  — Mark Feierstein (07:47)

  • Possible trade: Cuba opens its economy and releases political prisoners; U.S. lifts sanctions.

• Political Dimensions:

  • Trump appeals to South Florida’s Cuban community, referencing personal connections at public events (09:01–09:18).

Notable Quotes:

• "It's not even a revolution. That thing they have has survived on subsidies... They don't get subsidies anymore."
  — Marco Rubio (06:56)

• "Rubio... has long called for changes in regime in Cuba, which is true of a lot of people in South Florida where it happens that the president lives."
  — Steve Inskeep (08:38)

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3. The Fed Grapples with War Shock and a Weak Economy

[09:32 – 12:59]

Main Points:

• Fed Policymakers Meet Amid Economic Uncertainty:

  • The Iran war has triggered surges in global energy prices while the U.S. job market is weakening (09:39).

• Twin Pressures on the Fed:

  "The Federal Reserve has to support the job market and to keep inflation in check. And right now, both those jobs are looking really difficult."
  — Scott Horsley (09:54)

  • February jobs report: 92,000 jobs cut, third reduction in six months—would usually prompt rate cuts.
  • But high inflation, especially energy-driven, complicates that (10:13).

• Energy Shock and Inflation:

  • Gas/diesel/jet fuel prices spike; possible spillover into broader consumer prices.

  "That rise in prices is going to restrain the pace of consumer spending. The policy outlook this year... has been completely scrambled by this new shock."
  — Michael Pierce, Oxford Economics (10:59)

  • Uncertainty looms over how long conflict and oil traffic disruptions will last.

• Interest Rate Outlook:

  • Fed expected to hold rates steady, but not all officials agree.
  • Recent economic data and shocks could shift risk assessments among policymakers (11:56).

• Jerome Powell’s Uncertain Tenure:

  • With his term ending in May, confirmation of a replacement is delayed by a Senate standoff and DOJ investigation.
  • Pierce calls Powell’s situation "highly unusual," emphasizing the Fed's independence under political pressure (12:38).

Notable Quotes:

• "They generally don't give too much weight to a temporary move in gas prices... but right now, they're up a whole lot."
  — Scott Horsley (10:42)

• "What's also unusual is an ongoing criminal probe into the sitting Federal Reserve chair."
  — Michael Pierce (12:38)

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Memorable Moments

• A harrowing interview with an Iranian refugee breaking down (02:46).
• Trump’s suggestion to make Venezuela "the 51st state" after a sporting loss (05:42).
• Deep insights into the policy levers the U.S. holds over Cuba (07:47).
• The open question of the Fed’s leadership with ongoing DOJ investigations (12:38).

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Key Timestamps

• 01:18 – Iran’s regional missile barrages and attacks
• 02:00–03:05 – Refugee fears and life inside Iran
• 03:09–04:22 – Security crackdown and communication blackout in Iran
• 05:38 – Trump’s remarks after Venezuela’s win, segue to Cuba
• 06:56 – Rubio on Cuba’s failed economy and leadership change
• 07:47 – Context on Cuba: echoes of Obama-era engagement
• 09:32 – Fed meeting: balancing weak jobs and high inflation
• 10:59 – Analyst Michael Pierce on shock to economy
• 12:38 – The politicized, embattled status of Jerome Powell

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Summary

The episode provides a stark, immediate picture of regional instability emanating from Iran and its widespread aftermath, touching the lives of ordinary citizens and shaping global politics and economics. The Trump administration is shown wielding both rhetorical and economic power toward Cuba, with a subtext of electoral strategy and echoes of past diplomacy. Finally, the Federal Reserve is caught between inflation, war shocks, and political maneuvering, highlighting the fragility and complexity of U.S. economic policymaking in 2026.

The segment order and coverage focus reflect the gravity of each issue, providing listeners with vital context to inform their understanding for the day ahead.

Transcript

[Michelle Martin]

Iran lashed out after the killing of its security chief.

[Steve Inskeep]

Drones and missiles flashed across the region and over the head of our correspondent in Iraq. Iranians crossing the border out of their country say life is unbearable.

[Michelle Martin]

I'm Michelle Martin. That's Steve Inskeep. And this is up first From NPR News. U.S. secretary of State Marco Rubio talks of forcing a change in the leadership of Cuba.

[Marco Rubio]

They're in a lot of trouble, and the people in charge are in they don't know how to fix it. So they have to get new people in charge.

[Michelle Martin]

President Trump cut off oil to Cuba and now contends he can do whatever he wants. What is the Trump administration planning?

[Steve Inskeep]

Also, the Federal Reserve meets today to set interest rates. The war in Iran has sent energy prices soaring and the job market has been weakening. How does that affect their calculation? Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day.

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[Steve Inskeep]

Several countries across the Middle east have been shooting down Iranian missiles and drones.

[Michelle Martin]

The barrage is seen as Iran's response to the killing of Iran, Iran's security chief and the head of its paramilitary force. Iran said it fired multiple warhead missiles at Tel Aviv.

[Steve Inskeep]

This morning we have a glimpse of life inside Iran. It comes from people who left their country crossing the border into neighboring Iraq. NPR's Arzu Rezvani met them at a border crossing. Arzu, welcome.

[Arzu Rezvani]

Good to be with you.

[Steve Inskeep]

Steve, what did you see?

[Arzu Rezvani]

So I spent a few hours at the Haji Amran border crossing. It's tucked in the mountains, which at this time of year are covered with snow.

[IXL Sponsor Announcer]

And.

[Arzu Rezvani]

And as I was interviewing people, we spotted a couple of Iranian drones flying overhead into Iraq. Those are the cheap, noisy drones Iran's been launching at US Targets all over Iraq and the region. But beyond that, one of the most striking things I observed from my border visit was just how terrified people were to speak. I mean, you could see it in their eyes and you could hear it in what they chose not to say. I spoke with one woman in her 60s coming from a border city in Iran. She asked not to be named for fear of government reprisal, even though she was no longer in Iran. And when I asked her about the war, she was really, really vague. She spoke only about the poor economy and avoided any talk about the war or the government. And then she asked me to turn off my mic. She burst into tears and told me that she wished the airstrikes on her city had killed her. That between the war and the security crackdown, life had just really become unbearable.

[Steve Inskeep]

You mentioned a security crackdown. What do you hear about that?

[Arzu Rezvani]

So there's been an intense Internet blackout in Iran these last couple of weeks. It's been very hard to reach people inside the country. But those who do manage to get online go through Starlink, for example. Example describes seeing many more checkpoints in their cities and towns. They say security forces are checking phones. They look for apps that help bypass the Internet blackout. They look through videos and text messages. People say they've been getting text messages, presumably from the government, warning them not to join crowds that might turn into protests. There was one 40 year old man who lives in a city in eastern Iran. He asked me not to identify him for fear of government reprisal. And he said in a voice memo that he has seen security forces abandon their stations and move into a mosque and a sports stadium, which is not a common practice. Those stations have been targets. So it's really difficult to verify these accounts, I should note. But numerous people I've spoken with in recent days have shared similar details from this crackdown. And, and these are also accounts that match testimonies that many human rights groups are also compiling.

[Steve Inskeep]

So a lot of suffering inside Iran and how is Iran trying to push that suffering out into its neighbors?

[Arzu Rezvani]

They have ramped up attacks in the last several hours. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar have intercepted Iranian missiles and drones in recent hours. There were strikes in Israel overnight, including in Tel Aviv. There are deaths reported. There are the Iran backed group Hezbollah in Lebanon launched rockets into Israel in the early morning and Israel has been hitting central Beirut. I'm talking to you right now from Erbil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Shortly before we started our conversation, there were sounds of large explosions in the distance. There is a large consulate here that's been targeted. But it's really Iraq's capital city Baghdad that's been getting hit hard from Iran backed militias. So the US Embassy there is under constant and it just doesn't seem like this war is slowing down. If anything, it feels like it's intensifying.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR's Arzu Rezvani is in Erbil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Arzu, thanks so much.

[Arzu Rezvani]

You're welcome.

[Steve Inskeep]

President Trump apparently is in an expansive mood.

[Michelle Martin]

In other words, he's talking again about expanding the United States. Venezuela's team won a world baseball tournament last night, defeating Team usa And the president responded on social media by promoting the South American nation as the 51st state. If you can't beat them, join them or make them join you. The US recently deposed Venezuela's leader and appears to be dictating terms to the new one.

[Steve Inskeep]

Trump has also been talking about taking over Cuba and there's a connection Cuba depended on Venezuelan oil that the United States has stopped.

[Unidentified Cuban Commentator]

Cuba right now is very bad shape. They're talking to Marco and we'll be doing something with Cuba very soon.

[Steve Inskeep]

Marco is Secretary of State Marco Rubio. So what is the something Trump wants to do? NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordonez has been trying to read the clues. Franco, good morning.

[Franco Ordonez]

Good morning, Steve.

[Steve Inskeep]

What's the president been saying, first of all?

[Franco Ordonez]

Yeah, I mean, earlier this month Trump raised the idea of a friendly takeover of Cuba, you know, seemingly some kind of regime change. The secretary of state, Marco Rubio has also been in talks with leaders in Havana about opening up the government. Government and actually Rubio yesterday at the White House spoke of both economic changes, but also the need for shakeup of Cuban leadership.

[Marco Rubio]

The bottom line is their economy doesn't work. It's a non functional economy. It's an economy that has survived that revolution. It's not even a revolution. That thing they have has survived on subsidies from the Soviet Union and now from Venezuela. They don't get subsidies anymore. So they're in a lot of trouble. And the people in charge are they don't know how to fix it and so they have to get new people in charge.

[Franco Ordonez]

Now Rubio does say, however, that it is important to be realistic and that Cuba doesn't need to change all at once.

[Steve Inskeep]

Ah, interesting. So what are some possible scenarios here?

[Franco Ordonez]

Well, this week actually, Steve, is the 10 year anniversary of when former President Barack Obama visited Cuba to celebrate his deal with Havana that opened up relations between the two nations. I called Mark Fierstein who was at the Obama White House and he told me he sees what's shaping up as some kind of Obama 2.0 dealing.

[Mark Feierstein]

And the difference, of course, is that Cuba is much more vulnerable now. The United States has a lot more leverage. But the contours of an agreement I think look a lot like what Obama and the Cubans agreed to 10 years ago, which was basically the Cubans opening up the economy, releasing political prisoners, pledging to ease oppression and in turn United States lifting sanctions.

[Franco Ordonez]

Yeah. At the time Feierstein said the Cubans didn't go far enough. And that has basically led them to this point today where they are very much more vulnerable.

[Steve Inskeep]

So you can look back to that example, Franco, but Obama's agenda seem to have to do with democracy, human rights, which are not things that President Trump has emphasized.

[Franco Ordonez]

Yeah, I mean, that's definitely right. But Rubio has cared about these issues a lot when it comes to Cuba. He is the son of Cuban immigrants and he has long called for changes

[Steve Inskeep]

in regime in Cuba, which of course is true of a lot of people in South Florida where it happens that the president lives.

[Franco Ordonez]

Yeah, it is. And Trump has talked very nostalgically about Cuba recently. This is a big deal in South Florida. And Trump also has friends and advisors who care about Cuba. He's complimented the real estate. You know, he's talked, you know, favorably about the political benefits he has from the community. And at an event earlier this month celebrating the Major League Soccer champions Inter Miami, Trump actually turned to the co owner of the team, Jorge Maz, whose family's from Cuba. And Trump said Moss will soon be able to go back to Cuba and that they would celebrate soon. And he also said that would be a great day.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordonez. Franco, thank you so much.

[NPR Sponsor Announcer]

Thank you, Steve.

[Steve Inskeep]

Policymakers from the Federal Reserve are meeting in Washington today amid darkening economic clouds.

[Michelle Martin]

The US And Israeli war with Iran has triggered a spike in energy prices, and the US Job market is showing more signs of weakness.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR chief economics correspondent Scott Horsley joins us now. Good morning, Chief.

[Scott Horsley]

Good morning, Steve.

[Steve Inskeep]

What makes this a challenging moment?

[Scott Horsley]

We talk all the time about the two jobs. The Federal Reserve has to support the job market and to keep inflation in check. And right now, both those jobs are looking really difficult. You know, for a moment, it looked as if the labor market was starting to stabilize. But a week and a half ago, those hopes were kind of dashed when we got that February jobs report which showed employers cut 92,000 jobs last month. They've actually now cut jobs in three of the last six months. Ordinarily, that would be a sign the Fed might want to consider lowering interest rates to goose the economy. But it's really hard to do that when you've also got inflation that is stubbornly high. And now on top of that, you've got this energy shock triggered by the war with Iran.

[Steve Inskeep]

I wonder, given that they try to look at longer term trends and longer term data, how does a sudden spike in energy prices the last few days affect the Fed's calculation Well, you're right.

[Scott Horsley]

They generally don't give too much weight to a temporary move in gas prices because, of course, gas prices go up and down a right now, though, they're up a whole lot. Diesel prices are up above $5 a gallon. And Michael Pierce of the forecasting firm Oxford Economics says those high fuel prices could start to spill over into the price of lots of other goods.

[Michael Pierce]

It's going to put big upward pressure on inflation in the near term. At the same time, it's going to affect the real economy. That rise in prices is going to restrain the pace of consumer spending. The policy outlook this year, I think, has been completely scrambled by this new shock.

[Scott Horsley]

We've also seen a spike in the cost of fertilizer and jet fuel, and nobody knows how long the war is going to last or when we might see a resumption of normal oil tanker traffic through the trade of Hormuz.

[Steve Inskeep]

Given all those unknowns, what do you think about interest rates?

[Scott Horsley]

Today? At least the Fed is widely expected to stand pat and hold its benchmark interest rates steady, as it did back in January. But it might not be unanimous. At the last meeting, two of the 12 policymakers voted to lower rates by a quarter point because they were more concerned with the weakening job market than they were about rising prices. We'll see how that risk assessment may have shifted now, if at all, since we've had that disappointing February jobs report and two plus weeks of soaring prices at the gas pump.

[Steve Inskeep]

How much longer is Jerome Powell going to be in this job?

[Scott Horsley]

To be determined. Powell's term as Fed chairman was supposed to expire in May, so he would have just one more meeting to oversee after this one. But it's possible he's going to wind up serving a little bit longer. That's because a key Republican senator, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, says he will block a vote on Trump's nominee to replace Powell, Kevin Warsh, until the Justice Department drops its criminal investigation of the Fed. Now, last week, a federal judge put the brakes on that probe, saying it was part of an improper harassment campaign to get the Fed to lower interest rates. But the DOJ is not backing down, and Pierce says that means Powell might get to stick around for a while.

[Michael Pierce]

That would be highly unusual. But then what's also unusual is an ongoing criminal probe into the sitting Federal Reserve chair. And I think he sees it as part of his mission and part of his legacy in defending the independence of the Federal Reserve from this political influence.

[Scott Horsley]

So far, Powell's kept his own plans to himself but I'm sure he'll be asked about his timeline once again this afternoon.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR Scott Horsley, thanks so much.

[Scott Horsley]

You're welcome.

[Steve Inskeep]

Before you go, we have a suggestion, actually a request. Please rate and review up first on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. One listener recently told us that Three Stories is just right. It provides just enough of a summary to decide what to research further. Only takes a minute to review this podcast and it helps us keep this essential service going for everyone. Also, we love reading your feedback. Thanks. And that's up first for this Wednesday, March 18th. I'm Steve Inske.

[Michelle Martin]

And I'm Michele Martin. Today's episode of up first was edited by Hannah Block, Rebecca Metzler, Rafael Naam, Mohamed El Bardisi and Alice Wolfley and was produced by Ziad Buch and Nia Dumas. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Nisha Hyness, and our technical director is Carly Strange. Change. Our supervising producer is Michael Lipkin and we hope you'll join us again tomorrow.

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