Up First (NPR) – March 18, 2026

Life Inside Iran, Trump and Cuba, Fed Interest Rates

Episode Overview

This episode delivers deep coverage of three major news stories:

1. Escalating conflict and daily life in Iran following the assassination of Iran’s security chief, with a firsthand report from near the border in Iraq.
2. The Trump administration’s aggressive rhetoric and policy toward Cuba, rooted in recent oil sanctions and possible regime change, with insights into U.S. strategy.
3. Federal Reserve policymaking in the face of economic disruptions caused by the Iran conflict and energy price spikes, with implications for interest rates and the job market.

The tone throughout is urgent, insightful, and personal, featuring direct testimony and expert analysis.

1. Life Inside Iran Amid Escalating Violence

[01:18 – 05:28]

Main Points:

• Missiles and Drones Attacks: Iran has responded to the assassination of its security chief by launching missiles and drones across the region (01:18). Several Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar, have intercepted attacks. Strikes have also hit Tel Aviv and there are deaths reported in Israel.

• On-the-Ground Reporting – Arzu Rezvani in Kurdistan: NPR’s Arzu Rezvani describes the tense atmosphere at the Haji Amran border crossing with Iraq. While conducting interviews, drones were seen overhead—adding to the sense of threat (01:46).

• Fear and Desperation Among Iranians Fleeing:

  • Refugees are deeply afraid to speak, even outside of Iran:

  "One of the most striking things I observed from my border visit was just how terrified people were to speak. I mean, you could see it in their eyes and you could hear it in what they chose not to say."
  — Arzu Rezvani (02:00)

  • One woman broke down, admitting:

  "She burst into tears and told me that she wished the airstrikes on her city had killed her. That between the war and the security crackdown, life had just really become unbearable."
  — Arzu Rezvani (02:46)

• Security Crackdown and Internet Blackouts:

  • Communication with Iranians inside the country is almost impossible due to state-imposed internet blackouts; some access via Starlink.
  • Heavy presence of checkpoints, phone checks for anti-censorship apps, and government texts warning against protests.
  • Some security forces have abandoned their stations for mosques and stadiums (03:09–04:22).

• Wider Military Escalation:

  • Iran is exporting its conflict, with Hezbollah firing rockets into Israel and Israeli strikes in Beirut and Baghdad.
  • Iraq's capital is heavily targeted, and even Erbil experiences nearby explosions (04:29).

Notable Quotes:

• "People say they've been getting text messages, presumably from the government, warning them not to join crowds that might turn into protests."
  — Arzu Rezvani (03:38)

• "If anything, it feels like [the war] is intensifying."
  — Arzu Rezvani (05:17)

2. Trump Expands Pressure on Cuba

[05:38 – 09:23]

Main Points:

• Trump’s Assertive Rhetoric:

  • President Trump is talking about “expanding the United States” after Venezuela wins a world baseball championship:

  "If you can't beat them, join them. Or make them join you."
  — Michelle Martin, paraphrasing Trump (05:42)

• U.S. Sanctions Squeeze Cuba:

  • The U.S. halted Venezuelan oil exports to Cuba, causing economic distress on the island.
  • "Cuba right now is very bad shape," says a Cuban commentator, foreshadowing government intervention (06:13).

• Talk of Regime Change:

  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio opens the possibility of new leadership:

  "So they're in a lot of trouble. And the people in charge, they don't know how to fix it. So they have to get new people in charge."
  — Marco Rubio (06:56)

• Policy Context and Scenarios:

  • Rubio signals realism and a need for incremental change in Cuba.
  • Mark Feierstein (former Obama official) suggests the situation resembles the 2016 détente but on U.S. terms:

  "Cuba is much more vulnerable now. The United States has a lot more leverage."
  — Mark Feierstein (07:47)

  • Possible trade: Cuba opens its economy and releases political prisoners; U.S. lifts sanctions.

• Political Dimensions:

  • Trump appeals to South Florida’s Cuban community, referencing personal connections at public events (09:01–09:18).

Notable Quotes:

• "It's not even a revolution. That thing they have has survived on subsidies... They don't get subsidies anymore."
  — Marco Rubio (06:56)

• "Rubio... has long called for changes in regime in Cuba, which is true of a lot of people in South Florida where it happens that the president lives."
  — Steve Inskeep (08:38)

3. The Fed Grapples with War Shock and a Weak Economy

[09:32 – 12:59]

Main Points:

• Fed Policymakers Meet Amid Economic Uncertainty:

  • The Iran war has triggered surges in global energy prices while the U.S. job market is weakening (09:39).

• Twin Pressures on the Fed:

  "The Federal Reserve has to support the job market and to keep inflation in check. And right now, both those jobs are looking really difficult."
  — Scott Horsley (09:54)

  • February jobs report: 92,000 jobs cut, third reduction in six months—would usually prompt rate cuts.
  • But high inflation, especially energy-driven, complicates that (10:13).

• Energy Shock and Inflation:

  • Gas/diesel/jet fuel prices spike; possible spillover into broader consumer prices.

  "That rise in prices is going to restrain the pace of consumer spending. The policy outlook this year... has been completely scrambled by this new shock."
  — Michael Pierce, Oxford Economics (10:59)

  • Uncertainty looms over how long conflict and oil traffic disruptions will last.

• Interest Rate Outlook:

  • Fed expected to hold rates steady, but not all officials agree.
  • Recent economic data and shocks could shift risk assessments among policymakers (11:56).

• Jerome Powell’s Uncertain Tenure:

  • With his term ending in May, confirmation of a replacement is delayed by a Senate standoff and DOJ investigation.
  • Pierce calls Powell’s situation "highly unusual," emphasizing the Fed's independence under political pressure (12:38).

Notable Quotes:

• "They generally don't give too much weight to a temporary move in gas prices... but right now, they're up a whole lot."
  — Scott Horsley (10:42)

• "What's also unusual is an ongoing criminal probe into the sitting Federal Reserve chair."
  — Michael Pierce (12:38)

Memorable Moments

• A harrowing interview with an Iranian refugee breaking down (02:46).
• Trump’s suggestion to make Venezuela "the 51st state" after a sporting loss (05:42).
• Deep insights into the policy levers the U.S. holds over Cuba (07:47).
• The open question of the Fed’s leadership with ongoing DOJ investigations (12:38).

Key Timestamps

• 01:18 – Iran’s regional missile barrages and attacks
• 02:00–03:05 – Refugee fears and life inside Iran
• 03:09–04:22 – Security crackdown and communication blackout in Iran
• 05:38 – Trump’s remarks after Venezuela’s win, segue to Cuba
• 06:56 – Rubio on Cuba’s failed economy and leadership change
• 07:47 – Context on Cuba: echoes of Obama-era engagement
• 09:32 – Fed meeting: balancing weak jobs and high inflation
• 10:59 – Analyst Michael Pierce on shock to economy
• 12:38 – The politicized, embattled status of Jerome Powell

Summary

The episode provides a stark, immediate picture of regional instability emanating from Iran and its widespread aftermath, touching the lives of ordinary citizens and shaping global politics and economics. The Trump administration is shown wielding both rhetorical and economic power toward Cuba, with a subtext of electoral strategy and echoes of past diplomacy. Finally, the Federal Reserve is caught between inflation, war shocks, and political maneuvering, highlighting the fragility and complexity of U.S. economic policymaking in 2026.

The segment order and coverage focus reflect the gravity of each issue, providing listeners with vital context to inform their understanding for the day ahead.