Megabill Wrangling, State Of Democracy Poll, USAID Ends

Summary

Up First from NPR – July 1, 2025

Episode: Megabill Wrangling, State Of Democracy Poll, USAID Ends

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1. Megabill Wrangling: Senate Republicans Push Through President Trump’s Tax and Spending Bill

Timestamp: [00:02]

The episode opens with Michelle Martin introducing the intense negotiations surrounding President Donald Trump's ambitious tax and spending bill. Senate Republicans are nearing a final vote after months of protracted discussions and numerous close calls.

Timestamp: [02:13]

Layla Fadel highlights the ongoing efforts of the Republican-led Senate, which has been in session overnight to debate potential amendments to the bill. Claudia Grisales, NPR’s Congressional correspondent, joins the conversation to provide deeper insights.

Timestamp: [02:45]

Domenico Montanaro explains that the central focus of the legislation revolves around extending the tax cuts established during Trump's first term, with projected costs reaching into the trillions. To finance this, Republican fiscal hawks are advocating for significant cuts to Medicaid, a crucial healthcare program for low-income and disabled Americans. These proposed reductions have sparked opposition not only from Democrats but also from moderate Republicans concerned about the potential negative impact on rural hospitals.

Timestamp: [03:56]

The implications for Medicaid are profound. Montanaro cites a nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimate projecting that approximately 12 million Americans could lose their health insurance under the current Senate version of the bill. This underscores the bill's extensive reach and potential to alter the lives of millions who depend on Medicaid.

Timestamp: [04:21]

Beyond Medicaid, the "mega bill" encompasses a broad spectrum of provisions. These include maintaining the current level of the child tax credit, eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay, and increasing defense spending. Additionally, the bill seeks to bolster immigration enforcement, particularly along the U.S.-Mexico border, and promote investments in traditional energy sources while rolling back many climate initiatives introduced under President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act.

Timestamp: [05:02]

Looking ahead, Montanaro outlines the next steps: the House must approve the Senate's version of the bill before it can reach President Trump's desk. However, with the House currently on recess and potential internal conflicts over Medicaid cuts and spending, the path forward remains uncertain. Montanaro also emphasizes the urgency of lifting the debt ceiling by summer to avoid catastrophic financial consequences.

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2. State of Democracy Poll: Americans Express Deep Concerns

Timestamp: [05:57]

As the nation approaches Independence Day, Michelle Martin introduces a startling new poll revealing that three-quarters of Americans believe democracy is under serious threat. Additionally, a similar majority identifies politically motivated violence as a significant problem.

Timestamp: [06:06]

Zohran Mamdani, NPR’s political editor and correspondent, delves into the poll results. He notes that an overwhelming 76% of respondents feel democracy is seriously threatened, with 89% of Democrats, 80% of independents, and 57% of Republicans sharing this sentiment. This division highlights the deep political polarization currently gripping the country.

Timestamp: [07:21]

On the issue of political violence, 73% of Americans recognize it as a major problem. While support for this view is relatively consistent across political parties, Mamdani points out variations along racial and age lines. For instance, Latino and Black voters, as well as younger individuals, are less likely to view politically motivated violence as a significant issue compared to their white and older counterparts. Notably, white women across all education levels are the most vocal about their concerns regarding threats to democracy and political violence.

Timestamp: [07:59]

The poll also sheds light on the waning faith in political leaders. Mamdani reveals that public confidence in both Republican and Democratic leaders is notably low. President Trump holds a 43% approval rating, with particularly low marks in areas such as immigration (43%), foreign policy (41%), and economic handling (39%). Similarly, congressional Republicans receive a modest 35% approval, the highest since the polling began in 2011. In contrast, congressional Democrats are facing their lowest approval ratings in seven years, with only 67% support. This decline is partly attributed to Democrats' internal struggles, as only 44% of Democrats approve of their party’s approach in Congress compared to 73% of Republicans who approve of their own party.

Timestamp: [09:20]

Michelle Martin concludes this segment by directing listeners to NPR’s website for a comprehensive breakdown of the poll results.

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3. USAID Shuts Down: Implications for Global and Domestic Affairs

Timestamp: [09:33]

The discussion shifts to the closure of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Layla Fadel notes that nearly six months after the Trump administration prioritized dismantling USAID, the agency has officially ceased operations, with remaining employees transferring to the State Department.

Timestamp: [10:05]

Fatima Tanis, who has been covering this story, describes the emotional environment within USAID as staff bid farewell to colleagues. Many expressed deep commitment to the agency’s mission of assisting people worldwide, lamenting the loss of the USAID identity that symbolized American support through programs ranging from clinics to food aid.

Timestamp: [10:45]

Tanis emphasizes the monumental impact of USAID’s shutdown. As the largest U.S. donor in global health and development, USAID managed thousands of programs, over 80% of which are now terminated. While the State Department will assume control of some initiatives, the administration has not presented a clear vision for the future of U.S. foreign assistance, aligning instead with an "America First" policy.

Timestamp: [11:20]

The cessation of USAID has dire consequences, including the termination of programs addressing critical health issues like malaria and HIV/AIDS, as well as humanitarian efforts to combat child malnutrition. Tanis references a tragic case in Nigeria, where the closure of a USAID-funded clinic led to a child’s death due to the lack of available medical care. A study published in The Lancet projects that USAID cuts could result in 14 million preventable deaths by 2030.

Timestamp: [12:09]

Domestically, there are growing concerns about the repercussions of reduced foreign assistance. During a recent Senate hearing, Senator Mitch McConnell highlighted the dual benefits of foreign aid: preventing diseases from entering the U.S. and exercising "soft power" to foster global stability and positive relationships. McConnell criticized the administration's approach to foreign aid as "unnecessarily chaotic," suggesting that it has created opportunities for China to fill the vacuum left by the U.S.

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4. Zohran Mamdani's Mayoral Campaign: A New Force in New York Politics

Timestamp: [13:18]

The episode culminates with a spotlight on Zohran Mamdani, a relatively unknown figure who has recently emerged as a significant contender in New York City’s mayoral race. At just 33 years old, Mamdani is a Democratic Socialist of Indian descent and Muslim faith, running without the support of his party's establishment.

Timestamp: [13:35]

Despite initial skepticism, Mamdani has defied expectations by securing the presumptive win in the Democratic primary. Michelle Martin recounts how the New York Times’ editorial board had previously advised against voting for him, citing concerns over his experience and policy proposals. Additionally, Mamdani faced personal attacks and unfounded allegations linking him to promoting Islamic law and anti-Semitism.

Timestamp: [14:01]

In an interview, Mamdani addresses these attacks head-on, expressing frustration over the misrepresentations and slander he has endured. He reflects on the challenges of campaigning under such conditions, acknowledging that negative portrayals could deter voters who are unfamiliar with his true character and policy intentions.

Timestamp: [14:31]

Layla Fadel notes that despite these obstacles, many New Yorkers have rallied behind Mamdani, valuing his focus on affordability and rejecting the misleading narratives against him. His success in the primary marks a significant step toward potentially becoming the mayor of the nation's largest city.

Timestamp: [15:04]

Listeners are encouraged to tune into MORNING EDITION for a more in-depth conversation with Mamdani, where he discusses what his campaign can teach party leaders and his vision for New York City.

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Conclusion

In this episode of Up First, NPR delves into critical issues shaping the political and social landscape of the United States. From the high-stakes negotiations over President Trump’s expansive tax and spending bill, public anxieties surrounding the state of democracy, the significant shutdown of USAID and its global repercussions, to the rise of a new political figure in New York City’s mayoral race, listeners gain a comprehensive overview of the challenges and transformations occurring in the current U.S. political arena.

For a more detailed exploration of these topics and additional insights, subscribe to Up First+ and support your local NPR station at donate.npr.org.

Transcript

[Michelle Martin]

Senate Republicans are closing in on a final vote for President Trump's massive tax and spending bill. It's been months of tense negotiations and a lot of close calls.

[Layla Fondal]

How did they get here?

[Michelle Martin]

I'm Michelle Martin. That's Layla Fondal. And this is up first from NPR News. According to a new poll, an overwhelming majority of Americans now say democracy is under serious threat. And most people from both political parties also say politically motivated violence is a major problem, which is that say about faith in political leaders and political parties.

[Layla Fondal]

And one of the first priorities of the Trump administration was dismantling the United States Agency for International Development. Now, nearly six months later, USAID is officially shutting down. Stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day.

[Claudia Grisales]

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[Layla Fondal]

The Republican led Senate has been in session all night and still going at this hour.

[Michelle Martin]

They are debating potential changes to President Trump's massive tax and spending bill. Senate Republicans are hoping to pass the plan later today. But first they have to take up a series of amendment votes from both parties that are still going at this hour. Democrats are fighting the plan's passage and Senate Republicans still face internal divisions to get the plan to President Trump's desk by a self imposed July 4th deadline.

[Layla Fondal]

NPR Congressional correspondent Claudia Grisales joins us now to talk about all this. Good morning.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Good morning, Layla.

[Layla Fondal]

Okay, so we've seen Republicans consumed this year with trying to get this bill passed and they're still going. How did they get here?

[Domenico Montanaro]

Right. As you mentioned, they've been jockeying all night. A vote moments ago took down a provision that would have blocked states from regulating artificial intelligence. But really, when we look at the center of the fight for this legislation, it's focused on extending tax cuts that were passed during President Trump's first term. It's going to cost trillions to install. And to pay for it, Republican fiscal hawks want deep cuts in Medicaid. This is a health care program used by low income and disabled Americans. And it's a move more moderate members oppose. Senate Republican leaders, however, responding to these fiscal hawks, increased the Medicaid cuts with a new provision that could hurt rural hospitals. And that drew opposition from a number of Republicans, which is important because Senate Majority Leader John Thune can only afford to lose three members to get this across the finish line.

[Layla Fondal]

Okay, so in its current form, what could this legislation mean for Americans who rely on Medicaid?

[Domenico Montanaro]

Well, many will be under threat of losing their coverage. This is a large program. It's run in partnership with states. It covers more than 70 million Americans. And we know that the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said an estimated 12 million Americans will be forced to lose their health care insurance under this new Senate version.

[Layla Fondal]

And how else could this mega bill impact American lives?

[Domenico Montanaro]

This really is sweeping legislation. It carries the bulk of President Trump's domestic agenda and it will touch many facets of life. Aside from the tax cuts, there's retaining a current child tax credit level and shorter term provisions like no tax on tips or overtime pay. And there's new spending for defense as well as for immigration enforcement. So, for example, boosting efforts along the U.S. mexico border. And Republicans also want to spur investments in traditional sources of energy and undo a lot of the climate initiatives passed as part of former President Biden's inflation reduction act.

[Layla Fondal]

So what happens next?

[Domenico Montanaro]

Well, before this can reach Trump's desk, the House will need to sign off on this Senate version. They're away on recess, but they've been alerted they could be returning as early as Wednesday. Assuming the Senate gets this through by then and get going on this, this bill to start their voting process all over. But before they left, Speaker Mike Johnson warned members this could take time to keep their Fourth of July plans flexible. And with all these Senate changes, it's not clear this will be a smooth process in the House. We could see fights re emerge over spending versus Medicaid cuts, but we should note there's some critical deadlines approaching. There's a provision to lift the debt ceiling by this summer. That's critical. If it doesn't happen, it could trigger catastrophic financial results.

[Layla Fondal]

That's NPR's Claudia Grisales. Thank you, Claudia.

[Domenico Montanaro]

Thank you.

[Michelle Martin]

Ahead of the Independence Day holiday and the country's 249th birthday, three quarters of Americans say democracy is under serious threat.

[Layla Fondal]

That's according to a new poll from NPR PBS News. And Marist, a similar number also see politically motivated violence as a major problem.

[Michelle Martin]

NPR political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro is here to talk about these results as well as the general atmosphere around politics in this country right now. Good morning, Domenico.

[Zohran Mamdani]

Hey there.

[Michelle Martin]

So let's start with this question about the state of democracy. What did the poll ask and what stood out to you about the answers?

[Zohran Mamdani]

The overwhelming majority, 76%, see the country under serious threat. That includes 89% of Democrats, 80% of independents and 57% of Republicans. And this is coming at a time of great political volatility in the country. People are polarized and sharply divided. So in many ways, they're living in different realities about what they perceive to be the threat. Regardless of who's right or wrong here, Democrats see Trump and right wing extremism as the threat. Republicans, though, were 31 points more likely to say that there was a serious threat to democracy when Democrat Joe Biden was president.

[Michelle Martin]

So, you know, we have to talk about political violence in this country. There were threats on President Trump's life earlier during the campaign season, two of them, in fact. And over the weekend, there was a funeral for the state lawmaker and her husband who were killed in Minnesota. So how are Americans seeing these attacks?

[Zohran Mamdani]

Yeah, here again, a significant majority, 73%, said they see politically motivated violence as a major problem. While there was little difference by political party, there was some division by race and age. Latinos, black voters and younger voters, for example, were less likely to say politically motivated violence was a major problem as compared to white and older voters. And one other thing stood out here on both questions. It was white women, regardless of education level, who are most likely to say that there was a serious threat to democracy and that politically motivated violence, violence was a major problem.

[Michelle Martin]

That's interesting. So given all that, what does the poll tell us about faith and political leaders?

[Zohran Mamdani]

It's not great. I mean, people have very low confidence generally in the political leadership in the country right now, whether it's President Trump, congressional Republicans or congressional Democrats. You know, first when it comes to Trump, he gets just a 43% approval. And when digging down to key specific issue areas. He doesn't score very well on any of them. I mean, his handling of immigration is 43%, foreign policy just 41%. And his handling of the economy is worst of all at 39%.

[Michelle Martin]

And what about faith and the political parties?

[Zohran Mamdani]

Well, looking at Republicans In Congress, only 35% said they approve of the job they're doing. And guess what? That's the highest that Marist has recorded since it started asking the question back in 2011. Democrats, meanwhile, who are hoping to capitalize on Trump's relative unpopularity, plus the unpopularity of his mega bill that's making its way through Congress, are facing record lows. Just 20, 67% approve of congressional Democrats. That's their lowest score in seven years, back to 2018. And the reason for that is Democrats themselves. Only 44% of Democrats say that they approve of their party's approach in Congress right now. Compare that to 73% of Republicans who said so of their own party. If Democrats hope to take back the House next year, they got a lot of work to do to shore up their own house first.

[Michelle Martin]

That is NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Domenico, thank you.

[Zohran Mamdani]

You're welcome.

[Michelle Martin]

And if you want to dive deep into all of the numbers in the poll, they are on our website, npr.org.

[Layla Fondal]

A new study estimates that the U.S. agency for International Development has helped save more than 90 million lives in the past two decades. This on the agency's last official day.

[Michelle Martin]

And yes, when the Trump administration took office in January, one of its first major moves was dismantling usaid. Today, nearly six months later, the agency officially shuts down. A few hundred remaining employees will merge their operations under the State Department.

[Layla Fondal]

NPR's Fatima Tanis has been covering this and joins us now. Good morning, Fatima.

[Fatima Tanis]

Good morning, Leela.

[Layla Fondal]

Okay, so tell us what the last days at USAID have been like.

[Fatima Tanis]

It's been very difficult for agency staff who've been saying goodbye to their colleagues. Last week, there have been lots of tears. People told me it's hitting them that this is the end. They said they were drawn to the agency mission, to the idea of helping people in countries all over the world. You know, they brought up the USAID logo, which was on everything from clinics to food and medical packages, the words from the American people. And that was something staff said they really believed in.

[Layla Fondal]

So, Fatima, without usaid, is US Foreign assistance just something of the past now?

[Fatima Tanis]

You know, a quick reminder, the US Was the largest donor of global health and development funding. Much of that was done through USAID, which managed thousands of programs, more than 80% of them are now terminated. The administration has decided some will continue and the State Department will take on managing those starting today. The administration has made it clear it believes most of US Foreign aid has not been aligned with President Trump's America first policy, but it has not outlined a vision for the future.

[Layla Fondal]

And what's the impact been of shutting down usaid?

[Fatima Tanis]

It's hard to overstate. You know, we're talking about cuts to thousands of programs in low income countries that addressed health issues like malaria and hiv, aids, also humanitarian efforts such as feeding malnourished children. We also know that the shutting down of programs has caused deaths. For example, we reported on one child in Nigeria who died because the USAID funded clinic he went to for urgent medical treatment was shut down. It was the only clinic nearby. And you mentioned earlier that study published in the Lancet. It projects that the cuts to USAID could result in in 14 million preventable deaths by 2030. And while much of the impact has been felt globally, there's concern in academic circles and in Congress that there will be consequences felt here at home.

[Layla Fondal]

And what are those consequences?

[Fatima Tanis]

So this actually came up at a hearing last week. Senators questioned Russell Vogt about the cuts to foreign assistance. He's a director of the Office of Management and Budget for the White House. Several Republicans brought up that foreign assistance served two purposes. It helped prevent diseases from reaching the United States, and also something called soft power, where you spend money to build positive relationships and create stability in the world. Here's Republican Senator Mitch McConnell talking about it.

[Michelle Martin]

Over my years in Senate, the biggest supporters of soft power I've run into have been the military generals who are fully aware of how much more costly it is to have a war than to prevent one.

[Fatima Tanis]

McConnell went on to say that he also didn't like all of USAID's programs, but that the way the administration had go them had been, quote, unnecessarily chaotic and created opportunities for China to fill the gap the U.S. has left.

[Layla Fondal]

That's NPR's Fatma Tanis. Thank you, Fatma.

[Fatima Tanis]

Thank you.

[Layla Fondal]

We end today's episode with Zohran Mamdani. It's a name most people hadn't heard of just a year ago, even in his home state of New York, where he's been serving in the state Assembly. And so when Mamdani announced his candidacy for New York City mayor last October, it's fair to say most people didn't think he had a chance.

[Michelle Martin]

He is a democratic socialist, just 33 years old. He's a Muslim of Indian descent, and he did not have the backing of his party's establishment. The editorial board of the New York Times urged voters not to vote for him, citing inexperience and what they considered pie in the sky proposals. While Mandani has kept affordability at the center of his campaign, others tried to define his identity with claims he would promote Islamic law, that he supports terrorism and that he's an anti Semite.

[Zohran Mamdani]

I think there are a lot of concerns that are based upon a caricature of myself, and I don't blame New Yorkers for having that caricature because they've had to deal with more than $30 million of spending that paints me in that manner, that smears and slanders me, that artificially lengthens the color and the length of my beard, that calls me a monster and describes me at the gates. If I was someone who knew nothing about myself and that was the only way that I was introduced to a campaign, I, too, might have concerns.

[Layla Fondal]

New Yorkers, for the most part, didn't buy it. Mamdani became the presumptive winner of the Democratic primary last week and is now one step closer to becoming mayor of the nation's largest city. I sat down with him on Monday in New York City and asked him what his party's leaders can learn from his campaign. You can hear more from my conversation with Sohran Mamdani on MORNING edition. Turn on your local NPR station, listen on the NPR app or watch [e-mail] or on YouTube. And that's a first for Tuesday, July 1st. I'm Layla Faulded.

[Michelle Martin]

And I'm Michelle Martin. The NPR app lets you keep public radio in your pocket. You'll find a mix of local, national and international news, plus the best podcast from the NPR network. Download the NPR app today.

[Layla Fondal]

Today's episode of up first was edited by Jason Breslow, Dana Farrington, Rebecca Davis, Janaya Williams and Lisa Thompson. It was produced by Ziad Buchanan, Claire Morishima and Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Zoe Van Genhoven, and our technical director is Zach Coleman. Join us again tomorrow.

[Claudia Grisales]

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[Layla Fondal]

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[Claudia Grisales]

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