Strait Of Hormuz Crisis, Gas Price Politics, Iranian School Strike Investigation

Summary

Up First from NPR – March 12, 2026

Episode Title: Strait Of Hormuz Crisis, Gas Price Politics, Iranian School Strike Investigation
Hosts: Leila Fadel, Steve Inskeep
Correspondents: Greg Myhre, Tamara Keith, Kat Lonsdorf

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Episode Overview

This episode zeroes in on three of the day's most urgent headlines:

1. The escalating war involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, with a special focus on the Strait of Hormuz crisis and how Iran, despite losing control of the air, has effectively paralyzed global oil shipping.
2. Surging gas prices in the U.S., President Trump's political gamble in tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and how it could impact the upcoming midterm elections.
3. The U.S. missile strike on an Iranian girls' school: new findings put U.S. responsibility at the forefront, and an investigation into the Pentagon's reduced civilian harm mitigation capacity.

The tone is urgent, clear, and analytical, focused on breaking down fast-unfolding global and domestic issues for listeners "Up First" in the day.

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1. Strait of Hormuz Crisis: War Wages in Iran and at Sea

Air Strikes and Mixed Messages

• Current Status: U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have decimated Iranian air defenses, allowing for near-unimpeded bombardment.
  • “The Pentagon says that the US has hit more than 5,000 targets, so we’re talking close to 500 a day.” – Greg Myhre [01:46]
• Presidential Rhetoric: President Trump claims, "there's practically nothing left to target in Iran," yet signals the U.S. will stay to "finish the job." [00:02]
• Diminishing Returns: With fewer military targets left, the efficacy of continued airstrikes is in question.

Naval Power Shift & Oil Chokepoint

• Iran’s Hold on Hormuz: While losing in the air, Iran wields significant leverage at sea, attacking several commercial ships and effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz.

  • “The US has sunk most of Iran’s navy, including mine laying ships. But Iran still has other ways to hit these oil tankers and cargo ships.” – Greg Myhre [02:30]

• Geostrategic Importance: ~20% of the world’s oil (20 million barrels/day) passes through the strait.

• Major Disruption: Experts are calling this "the largest oil supply disruption in history." [03:01]

  “We are currently experiencing what is the largest oil supply disruption in history. Energy prices will remain high. The Iranian strategy of applying pressure to the United States will continue to play out, and President Trump will continue to feel the pressure.” — Gregory Brugh, Eurasia Group (as cited by Greg Myhre) [03:19]

• Iran’s Strategy: Described as “playing the long game,” aiming to deter further attacks & avoid a fate similar to Gaza or Lebanon.

  • “The war continues until they achieve a ceasefire or a peace that ensures they don’t become the next Lebanon or the next Gaza, where Israel…can just come in and mow the lawn.” — Negar Mortazavi, Center for International Policy [03:54]

Nuclear Concerns

• Unresolved Questions: Status of Iran’s highly enriched uranium remains unclear; IAEA access is cut off; possible U.S./Israeli plans to target or seize nuclear materials are unconfirmed.
  • “The biggest single question is the status of nearly 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium…International inspectors haven’t been to Iran since the US Israeli attacks last June.” – Greg Myhre [04:40]

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2. Gas Price Politics: Strategic Reserve, Campaign Calculations

Skyrocketing Prices

• Immediate Impact: Gas prices spiking to $3.61/gallon; oil near $100/barrel.

  • “The gas station is not your friend lately.” — Steve Inskeep [05:43]

• White House Response: President Trump taps the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), announcing a release of 172 million barrels over four months.

• Expert Caution: This is not a rapid solution; similar moves in 2022 only slightly reduced prices (by 20–25 cents/gallon).

  “Tapping the reserve only brought prices down a little and reduced the price at the pump by maybe 20, 25 cents a gallon, which made a difference to people, but it certainly didn’t change how they were feeling about that increase.” — Jared Bernstein (former economic adviser) via Tamara Keith [07:11]

• Scale Problem: The daily shortfall through the strait (20M barrels/day) vastly outpaces the planned SPR release.

  • “The world is going to use up that extra oil in a matter of a few days.” — Steve Inskeep [07:27]

President Trump’s Framing and Political Stakes

• Presidential Stance: Trump at a rally calls high gas prices “a very small price to pay for safety and peace,” trying to reassure Americans the conflict will be short-lived.

  • “We’re not leaving until that job is finished.” — (Trump at campaign rally, played by Tamara Keith) [07:57]

• Market Skepticism: Oil prices rose even as the president tried to spin the situation positively.

• Political Risk: Voters are feeling the pinch; rising gas prices are highly visible and politically volatile. If the crisis drags into November, Republicans risk backlash in midterms.

  “The political challenge is that Americans see the price of gas every few blocks on big lighted signs. And when prices go up, people feel it.” — Tamara Keith [08:55]

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3. U.S. Missile Strike on Iranian Girls’ School: Investigation and Accountability

Incident and Fallout

• Pentagon Finding: Preliminary assessment: U.S. responsible for missile strike on girls’ school on first day of war, killing at least 165 civilians (mostly children).
  • “[The investigation] is to determine not if the US did this, but how the mistake happened.” — Kat Lonsdorf [10:08]
• Largest Civilian Casualty in Decades: If confirmed, would be the deadliest U.S. incident of its kind in 35 years.

How Did It Happen?

• Error Origins: Strike was based on outdated intelligence targeting a former Iranian naval base; the school was walled off from the base years ago.
  • “A previous map of targets…showed that the building housing the school was once part of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Naval Base…But somewhere between 2013 and 2016, the school was separated and walled off.” — Kat Lonsdorf [10:40]
• Proof: Satellite imagery, video evidence, and missile debris all confirm use of a U.S. Tomahawk missile, despite claims to the contrary.
  • “President Trump suggested that Tomahawks are, quote, generic and may have come from Iran. That’s not possible. Several munitions experts…said the US is the only actor in this war using Tomahawk missiles.” — Kat Lonsdorf [11:18]

Civilian Harm Mitigation Office: Cuts and Consequences

• Institutional Weakness: The Pentagon’s office for civilian harm mitigation was cut by 90% under Secretary Pete Hegseth, with military lawyers also fired.
  • “At every level, civilian protection has been deprioritized, but a modern army has to fight according to the law, and the law requires that you protect civilians.” — Ona Hathaway, Yale Law School [12:22]
• Minimal Staffing: Currently, only one person is assigned to civilian casualty mitigation in U.S. Central Command.

Broader Implications

• Public Perception: Civilian casualties undermine support for military operations and the U.S. reputation globally.
  • “Mitigating civilian casualties was an important part of the war because there's an information war—a war for hearts and minds. You don't want to lose people's support.” — Steve Inskeep [12:59]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “There’s practically nothing left to target in Iran.” — President Trump, cited by Layla Fadel [00:02]
• “This is the largest oil supply disruption in history.” — Gregory Brugh via Greg Myhre [03:19]
• “The political challenge is that Americans see the price of gas every few blocks on big lighted signs. And when prices go up, people feel it.” — Tamara Keith [08:55]
• “At every level, civilian protection has been deprioritized, but a modern army has to fight according to the law, and the law requires that you protect civilians.” — Ona Hathaway (Yale), via Kat Lonsdorf [12:22]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:02: Opening headlines – Airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz overview
• 01:43: Greg Myhre on military campaign status in Iran
• 03:01: Oil supply disruption, expert commentary
• 05:34: Gas prices spike, White House response, Tamara Keith joins
• 09:41: U.S. strike on Iranian school, Kat Lonsdorf joins
• 10:40: Detailed investigation findings on the mistaken strike
• 11:42: Cuts to Pentagon civilian harm mitigation office

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This episode provides a rapid, clear-eyed breakdown of the military, economic, and humanitarian fallout from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, while underscoring the domestic and international stakes for the White House.

Transcript

[Layla Falden]

President Trump says there's, quote, practically nothing left to target in Iran as US And Israeli airstrikes continued on Tehran overnight.

[Steve Inskeep]

Iran is losing the war in the air, but on the water has strangled traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

[Layla Falden]

I'm Layla Falden. That's Steve Inskeep. And this is up first from NPR News. Gas prices are rising because of the war and President Trump, who campaigned on bringing them down, is now calling it a very small price to pay. Is that a price Americans are willing to accept?

[Steve Inskeep]

Also, military, Military Investigators say the U.S. is responsible for a missile strike on a girls school that killed at least 165 civilians. NPR learned the school was walled off from a nearby military base years ago. Why did the US Cut back on an office that helped to limit civilian casualties? Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day.

[Sponsor/Announcer]

This message comes from BetterHelp. This international women's Day. Let's celebrate the leaders, the caregivers, the hype, friends with all they handle. Women need to care for themselves and therapy's a great way to do that. Visit betterhelp.com NPR One of the hotspots

[Layla Falden]

in the war in the Middle east is the Strait of Hormuz.

[Steve Inskeep]

Yeah. There in the last 24 hours, Iran struck several commercial ships. Images of one ship in the Persian Gulf area show plumes of smoke rising above it. The important passage for a lot of the world's oil is effectively closed. And Iran therefore seems to have gained an advantage in the war at sea, even while losing the war in the air. NPR national security correspondent Greg Myhre is covering all this. Greg, good morning.

[Greg Myhre]

Hi, Steve.

[Steve Inskeep]

Where do you think the campaign stands?

[Greg Myhre]

Well, Iran's air defenses have been so decimated that the US and the Israelis are sending warplanes over Iran whenever they wish with minimal risk. At this point, the Pentagon says that the US has hit more than 5,000 targets, so we're talking close to 500 a day. President Trump is sending a bit of a mixed message. He's suggesting the war could end soon because, as he said in an interview, there's practically nothing left to hit. But he's also said the US Needs to stay to finish the job so the US And Israel could carry out these airstrikes indefinitely. But they could be approaching a point of diminishing returns when there's a limited number of targets left.

[Steve Inskeep]

Why is the story so different when we move out to sea?

[Greg Myhre]

Well, the Iranians have a very strong hold over the Strait of Hormuz. The US has sunk most of Iran's navy, including mine laying ships. But Iran still has other ways to hit these oil tankers and cargo ships. The Strait of Hormuz is just 20 miles wide or so at its narrowest point. And Iranian forces can fire drones or rockets or missiles at passing ships. And as you mentioned, several ships have been hit in the last 24 hours.

[Steve Inskeep]

What is the impact of all that? The economic impact?

[Greg Myhre]

Yes, Steve, we're seeing higher oil prices. They're flirting with $100 a barrel today. In the latest surge upward, the world consumes a little over 100 million barrels of oil a day. Around 20 million of those barrels, or 20%, come through the strait. And the pressure on oil prices will just keep growing every day. Gregory Brugh follows Iran and energy issues at the Eurasia Group. He spoke on a panel hosted by the Cato Institute. We are currently experiencing what is the largest oil supply disruption in history. Energy prices will remain high. The Iranian strategy of applying pressure to the United States will continue to play out, and President Trump will continue to feel the pressure.

[Steve Inskeep]

Greg, there's been a lot of crises in the Middle east and the Persian Gulf. To hear someone say this is the largest disruption in history, that's news to me. Wow. How long can Iran keep this up?

[Greg Myhre]

Yeah, we don't know. But Iran's strategy may be to keep the strait closed as long as possible, to inflict as much economic pain as possible with the goal of deterring the US And Israel from hitting Iran again in the future. Here's Negar Mortazavi with the center for International Policy in Washington. For Iran, they're essentially playing the long game. The war continues until they achieve a ceasefire or a peace that ensures they don't become the next Lebanon or the next Gaza, where Israel, with the help of the US Feel like they can just come in and mow the law. And, Steve, as you know, that phrase mow the lawn is how Israel often describes its periodic attacks in Gaza or in Lebanon.

[Steve Inskeep]

The US Initially said its goal was to stop Iran from getting a bomb. Are they doing that?

[Greg Myhre]

Trump keeps saying Iran will never get a nuclear bomb, but we're just not getting much information on whether the military is targeting nuclear sites, which Trump said were obliterated last year. Now, the biggest single question is the status of nearly £1,000 of highly enriched uranium. Nuclear experts believe this is buried inside a site outside the central city of Isfahan, and this material would be the critical component for a bomb. But international inspectors haven't been to Iran since the U. S. Israeli attacks last June. It's not clear if the US And Israel want to bomb this site again or possibly send in ground troops to seize it or negotiate its removal after the war.

[Steve Inskeep]

Okay. NPR's Greg Myhre, thanks so much.

[Greg Myhre]

Sure. Thanks, Steve.

[Layla Falden]

The Trump administration is tapping into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to try to bring down gas prices. Those prices have spiked since President Trump launched the war with Iran.

[Steve Inskeep]

According to the popular app Gas Buddy, the gas station is not your friend lately. The average cost of regular unleaded is now up to $3.61 per gallon. The president has described this as a very small price to pay for safety and peace. And he becomes the latest president to tap this emergency supply of oil that the United States stores underground in multiple sites in Texas and Louisiana. NPR senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith is covering this. Tam, good morning.

[Layla Falden]

Morning.

[Steve Inskeep]

How much oil is coming out and how soon?

[Tamara Keith]

The announcement was 172 million barrels over four months starting next week. Energy Secretary Chris Wright went on FOX News last night to talk about it.

[Greg Myhre]

The releases certainly out of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, they'll go over about four months. But this conflict I don't think goes that long. I think we will have the Straits of Hormuz open well before then. Exactly when you know, I can't say. But we are working 24 hours of every day to get there.

[Tamara Keith]

But as he makes clear, this isn't really a quick fix. It's a play President Biden tried after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 disrupted oil markets. Back then, gas got to $5 a consumers were mad. Jared Bernstein was on the president's Council of Economic Advisers, and he says there was a lot of pressure from the president and everyone else to find a fix. But he says tapping the reserve only brought prices down a little and reduced

[Greg Myhre]

the price at the pump by maybe 20, 25 cents a gallon, which made a difference to people, but it certainly didn't change how they were feeling about

[Steve Inskeep]

that increase and how it really took a big dent off of their impression

[Greg Myhre]

of the overall economy.

[Steve Inskeep]

I looked this up, and I can see why it doesn't make a big difference. 172 million barrels to be released is a lot of oil. But we heard Greg myhre say about 20 million per day is being stopped from going through the Strait of Hormuz. So the world is going to use up that extra oil in a matter of a few days. So how's the president talking about this situation?

[Tamara Keith]

Yeah, he was at a campaign rally yesterday in Kentucky where he tried to put a positive spin on this challenging situation.

[Greg Myhre]

But oil prices are already coming back

[Steve Inskeep]

down and it's going to come down,

[Greg Myhre]

but we're not leaving until that job is finished.

[Tamara Keith]

And then the oil markets immediately contradicted him. Prices surged overnight. You know, in recent days, Trump has called the war a short term excursion, signaling markets that maybe the conflict could end soon. But this is all a sharp turn from the way Trump talked about gas prices before the war, when he took every opportunity to boast about $2 gas, even if he was exagger. In fact, bringing down gas prices was something he campaigned on and was a key way he talked about addressing affordability as president.

[Steve Inskeep]

Where is this all going, Tam?

[Tamara Keith]

Well, I called up former Trump economic adviser Stephen Moore yesterday and he said Trump is making a bet that this conflict really will be short, prices will come back down, and voters will forgive or forget.

[Greg Myhre]

Part of the problem for President Trump

[Steve Inskeep]

is that we already had people complaining about prices.

[Tamara Keith]

He said the risk is if this drags on, there will be spillover effects to the rest of the economy with other things that people need getting more expensive because of fuel costs. The political challenge is that Americans see the price of gas every few blocks on big lighted signs. And when prices go up, people feel it. Republicans have to hope that gas prices aren't a big factor come this November when they will be defending their majorities in both the House and the Senate. It's a midterm campaign where affordability was already the top issue.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR's Tamara Keith, thanks so much.

[Tamara Keith]

You're welcome.

[Layla Falden]

A preliminary assessment by the Pentagon has determined the US Is at fault for a missile strike on a school in Iran on the first day of the war. The attack killed at least 165 civilians, mostly children, according to Iranian officials.

[Steve Inskeep]

We have a description of the U.S. investigation findings from a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity because they're not authorized to speak publicly. NPR's Kat Lonsdorf is here. Kat, good morning.

[Kat Lonsdorf]

Hey, good morning.

[Steve Inskeep]

What is this investigation?

[Kat Lonsdorf]

So now the Pentagon has opened what's called a 15, 6 investigation to determine not if the US did this, but how the mistake happened, and also confirmed that it was indeed civilians who were killed. That's expected to take months. In a statement, the White House reiterated to NPR that the investigation is ongoing and quote, the United States does not target civilians. But if this is all confirmed, Steve, it would make this one of the highest, if not the highest number of civilians killed by the US in a single incident in 35 years.

[Steve Inskeep]

Granting that they're still investigating. How could this have happened?

[Kat Lonsdorf]

Well, NPR was the first to report that the strike on the school was part of a larger precision strike on a compound of buildings and was likely the result of outdated intelligence. Our colleague Jeff Brumfield reported that a previous map of targets in Iran showed that the building housing the school was once part of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Bard Naval Base in the southern city of Manab. But somewhere between 2013 and 2016, the school was separated and walled off from that base, according to satellite imagery that we've reviewed.

[Steve Inskeep]

Just makes you cringe to think about it. And then there's these videos which appear to show a Tomahawk missile hitting the compound. What do you learn from that?

[Sponsor/Announcer]

Yeah.

[Kat Lonsdorf]

Iran also published images of parts of the missile it says struck the school. Those appear to have come from a Tomahawk as well. Tomahawks are US Made missiles, and only a handful of countries, including the U.S. use them. A few days, President Trump suggested that Tomahawks are, quote, generic and may have come from Iran. That's not possible. Several munitions experts we talked to have said the US Is the only actor in this war using Tomahawk missiles.

[Steve Inskeep]

Kent, what does it mean that last year, sometime Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth made a cut, major cuts to an office that was in charge of what they call civilian harm mitigation, trying to avoid civilian casualties.

[Greg Myhre]

Yeah.

[Kat Lonsdorf]

I mean, Steve, as you know, there have unfortunately been many other civilian casualty incidents in previous wars and administrations, and those are hopefully mistakes that the US can learn from. A few years ago, Congress mandated an office in the Pentagon to do just that. But shortly after Hegseth took office, he cut it by about 90%. He also fired a lot of military lawyers. Here's what Ona Hathaway, a professor of international law at Yale Law School, told me.

[Greg Myhre]

At every level, civilian protection has been deprioritized, but a modern army has to fight according to the law, and the law requires that you protect civilians.

[Kat Lonsdorf]

That same US Official who told us about the preliminary assessment also told NPR that now all of US Central Command has only one staffer assigned to civilian casualty mitigation operations. We reached out to the Pentagon about this, but didn't get a response. And I want to be clear, Steve. We can't say that this strike was a direct result of these cuts. Civilians are unfortunately always the worst and most affected in modern war.

[Steve Inskeep]

Yeah. And in recent wars, US Military officials felt that mitigating civilian casualties was an important part of the war because there's an information war a war for hearts and minds. You don't want to lose people's support. NPR's Kat Lonsdorf, thanks so much.

[Kat Lonsdorf]

Thank you.

[Steve Inskeep]

And that's up first for this Thursday, March 12th. I'm Steve Inskeep.

[Layla Falden]

And I'm Layla Falden. Today's episode of up first was edited by Andrew Sussman, Rebecca Metzler, James Heider, Mohamed Alberdisi, and Alex Wolfley. It was produced by Ziad Buch and Nia Dumas. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Misha Hyness. Our technical director is Carly Strange. Our deputy executive producer is Kelly Dickens. Join us again tomorrow.

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