Tariffs And Inflation, Epstein Conspiracy Theories, Public Broadcasting Cuts

Summary

Up First from NPR – July 16, 2025

NPR's "Up First" delivers the three biggest stories of the day with in-depth reporting and analysis. In this episode, hosts Steve Inskeep and Sarah McCammon delve into pressing issues: the interplay between tariffs and inflation, the resurgence of Epstein-related conspiracy theories among Trump supporters, and the contentious Senate debate over public broadcasting funding.

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1. Tariffs and Inflation: An Ongoing Economic Tug-of-War

Overview: The episode opens with a discussion on the current economic climate, focusing on the persistent inflation and the role of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. President Trump has been vocal in his criticism of the Federal Reserve, urging Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy.

Key Points:

• Inflation Forecast: Scott Horsley projects that inflation will continue to rise slowly over the next six months, potentially stabilizing between 3% and 3.5% by year's end. “I think people are in for at least another six months or so of slowly increasing inflation...” [05:56]

• Impact of Tariffs: Sarah McCammon highlights that the tariffs enacted by President Trump on imported goods, such as toys, clothing, and appliances, have contributed to the uptick in inflation. “A new report from the Labor Department shows inflation heated up last month.” [02:21]

• Federal Reserve's Stance: Despite presidential pressures, experts like Stephen Cates from Bankrate believe the Fed will likely maintain current interest rates at their upcoming meetings, citing the recent inflation data. “Rising inflation makes Powell and his colleagues almost certain to hold interest rates steady...” [04:22]

• Potential Future Tariffs: The discussion touches on the president’s threats to implement additional tariffs, which could exacerbate inflation if enacted. However, there is skepticism among investors about the likelihood of these new tariffs coming to fruition. “If Trump actually were to triple the import tax on goods from the European Union... there would likely be a big sell off in the stock market.” [05:10]

Notable Quotes:

• “Interest rates should be coming down. We have a very, very successful country. We should have the lowest interest rate anywhere in the world, and we don't.” – President Trump [03:48]

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2. Epstein Conspiracy Theories: Fueling Political Divides

Overview: The conversation shifts to the controversial topic of Jeffrey Epstein and the conspiracy theories surrounding his death and connections. Speaker Mike Johnson has called for the Trump administration to release more information about Epstein, stirring debates among Trump supporters who are entrenched in conspiracy narratives.

Key Points:

• Demand for Transparency: Speaker Johnson urges the administration to disclose more details about Epstein, despite the Department of Justice's stance that there is no extensive file to release. “It's a very delicate subject, but we should put everything out there and let the people decide it.” [06:36]

• Conspiracy Theories and QAnon: Pam Bondi explains how Epstein's case has been co-opted by conspiracy theorists, particularly within the QAnon movement, who view Epstein as part of a larger "satanic cabal." “Jeffrey Epstein's story is really this striking example of what they believe is a satanic cabal of pedophiles...” [08:06]

• Administration's Backtracking: The administration's inability to release new information has led to inner conflicts among supporters, prompting theories that blame other political figures like President Obama or Hillary Clinton for withholding information. “He spun up a new baseless conspiracy theory that actually the Epstein files were created by President Obama, Hillary Clinton, and the Biden administration.” [08:51]

• Impact on Trump’s Image: The ongoing conspiracy theories challenge President Trump's narrative of battling the "deep state," as his administration's actions appear contradictory to the promises made during his campaign. “Even as Trump is telling his supporters to forget about Epstein, they are demanding that the administration release whatever it is that they have on him.” [09:57]

Notable Quotes:

• “It's trying to reconcile two things that both cannot be true at the same time and finding a way to make both of them true.” – Mike Rothschild [09:05]

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3. Public Broadcasting Cuts: Senate's Tight Vote and Its Implications

Overview: The final segment addresses the Senate's deliberation on a measure to rescind previously approved funding for foreign aid and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB). The proposal, driven by Republicans in Congress, faces significant opposition due to concerns over its impact on public radio and television.

Key Points:

• Close Senate Vote: The Senate narrowly passed the rescission bill with Vice President Vance casting the tie-breaking vote. “Really close. In fact, Vice President Vance had to break a 50-50 tie.” [10:51]

• Bipartisan Opposition: Prominent Republicans like Mitch McConnell, Lisa Murkowski, and Susan Collins joined Democrats in opposing the cuts, citing the essential role of public broadcasting in providing information and emergency alerts. “Murkowski defended the foreign aid programs, but ahead of yesterday's vote, she also expressed support for public broadcasting.” [11:42]

• Impact on NPR and CPB: NPR relies on CPB for a substantial portion of its funding. The proposed cuts threaten to defund CPB for fiscal years 2026 and 2027, which would have a cascading effect on public radio and TV stations nationwide. “The Corporation for Public Broadcasting will lose the funding that Congress appropriated for it for fiscal years 2026 and 2027.” [13:29]

• Legislative Process: Should the Senate pass the bill, it must undergo further scrutiny by the Senate parliamentarian and then return to the House for a final vote. The uncertainty leaves the future of CPB funding in flux. “If it passes, the Corporation for Public Broadcasting will lose the funding...” [13:27]

Notable Quotes:

• “If you don't like what's going on within NPR, you think that there's too much bias there. We can address that, but you don't need to gut the entire Corporation for Public Broadcasting.” – Lisa Murkowski [11:54]

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Conclusion: This episode of "Up First from NPR" provides a comprehensive analysis of the intertwined issues of economic policy, political conspiracies, and the survival of public broadcasting in the current political landscape. Through expert insights and direct quotes, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of how tariffs are influencing inflation, the persistence of conspiracy theories within certain political factions, and the precarious state of funding for public media institutions.

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For more detailed discussions and updates on these stories, subscribe to NPR's "Up First" and stay informed with the latest news each morning.

Transcript

[Steve Inskeep]

How are you adjusting to the hours.

[Sarah McCammon]

By the way, Sarah, the hours, you.

[Steve Inskeep]

Know, I like how you had to think about that. Like what time is it anyway?

[Sarah McCammon]

I mean, I feel kind of like 20 years ago almost when I had a new baby. But it's fine. It's fine.

[Steve Inskeep]

Steve, this program is your baby now.

[Sarah McCammon]

This is now the baby. We have a forecast for prices in the second half of the year.

[Scott Horsley]

I think people are in for at least another six months or so of slowly increasing inflation.

[Steve Inskeep]

It already crept up a little. So how much are tariffs still blame?

[Sarah McCammon]

I'm Sarah McCammon. That's Steve Inskeep. And this is up first from NPR News. Republicans in Congress have supported President Trump all the way until it came to the matter of the Epstein files.

[Shannon Bond]

It's a very delicate subject, but we should put everything out there and let the people decide it.

[Sarah McCammon]

What makes so many Trump supporters doubt the administration?

[Steve Inskeep]

Also, the Senate considers the president's request to claw back funds for foreign aid and public broadcasting. So so far they've had to drop some cuts and get a tie breaking vote from Vice President Vance. Why did some Republicans object? Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day.

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[Steve Inskeep]

President Trump is repeating his complaints about the Federal Reserve pressing its leader, Jerome Powell, to cut interest rates more quickly.

[Sarah McCammon]

The president's own tariffs are making it harder for the Fed to bring inflation under control. A new report from the Labor Department shows inflation heated up last month. Economists say part of that price increase can be traced to the president's double digit tariffs.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR's Scott Horsley is covering all this. Scott, good morning.

[Shannon Bond]

Good morning, Steve.

[Steve Inskeep]

This is a really interesting topic for me because the president has, by design trampled a lot of the limitations on his power in the executive branch, has not yet directly interfered with the Federal Reserve, but he certainly talks about it a lot. What's behind that?

[Shannon Bond]

Yeah, presidents often want lower interest rates to juice the economy and make it cheaper for families and businesses to borrow money. In Trump's case, he's also trying to cut the federal government's own interest expense, which is closing in on a trillion dollars this year and could go even higher as a result of the tax cuts and spending increases that congressional Republicans just passed. So Trump is unhappy that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues have not moved more quickly to cut interest rates. Here's the president speaking to reporters outside the White House yesterday.

[Scott Newman]

He's way late. That's why I call him too late. Jerome Powell is too late. He's way late. Interest rates should be coming down. We have a very, very successful country. We should have the lowest interest rate anywhere in the world, and we don't.

[Shannon Bond]

But in almost the same breath, Trump boasted about the tens of billions of dollars that the government is collecting in tariffs. And those tariffs are one reason the Fed is cautious about cutting interest rates.

[Steve Inskeep]

Well, talk me through that. How is it that tariffs would affect inflation?

[Shannon Bond]

Well, the effects have been fairly muted so far. But in the June inflation report which came out yesterday, we saw that inflation was higher than the month before. And some of that reflects Trump's tariffs on imported goods like toys and clothing and appliances. Stephen Cates, who is a financial analyst at Bankrate, says rising inflation makes Powell and his colleagues almost certain to hold interest rates steady at their next meeting a couple of weeks from now. Despite the full court press from the White House.

[Scott Horsley]

The Fed's got a couple months here. So just watch and wait and see exactly how quickly inflation is rising. I think at this point, it's cinched. There will be no cut in July.

[Shannon Bond]

Now, that's going to be a disappointment for the president. But if it weren't for Trump's own double digit tariffs, the Fed might well be in a position to cut interest rates right now.

[Steve Inskeep]

How would inflation be affected if the president goes through with the multiple, much higher tariffs that he's threatened on multiple countries for August 1st?

[Shannon Bond]

Yeah, that could push prices even higher, although right now investors are skeptical that the president's actually going to follow through on those tariff threats. If Trump actually were to triple the import tax on goods from the European Union, for example, as he threatened to do, there would likely be a big sell off in the stock market and the Europeans would probably retaliate with tariffs of their own. But, you know, even if tariffs don't go any higher, import taxes are already the highest they've been in almost a century. And so far, only some of that cost has been passed along to consumers. Kate says we are likely to see more tariff driven price hikes in the months to come.

[Scott Horsley]

I think people are in for at least another six months or so of slowly increasing inflation, but I think by the end of the year, we're probably not going to be any higher than somewhere between 3 and 3.5%.

[Shannon Bond]

Now, that's not nearly as high as the 9% inflation we saw back in 2022, but it's still higher than the Fed would like, and it's not the direction Trump promised to take prices when he was on the campaign trail last year.

[Steve Inskeep]

Npr, Scott Horsley, thanks.

[Shannon Bond]

You're Welco.

[Steve Inskeep]

House Speaker Mike Johnson is the highest profile Republican to call for the Trump administration to release more information about Jeffrey Epstein.

[Shannon Bond]

It's a very delicate subject, but we should, we should put everything out there and let the people decide it.

[Sarah McCammon]

Speaker Johnson said that to the podcaster Benny Johnson. Epstein, of course, was the convicted sex offender with connections to many rich and famous people. Epstein died by suicide while in jail during the first Trump administration.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR's Shannon Bond is following the story. Shannon, good morning.

[Pam Bondi]

Morning, Steve.

[Steve Inskeep]

Okay. Speaker Johnson says it's delicate. It is for a lot of reasons, one of them being the politics that involves President Trump. So how did he phrase his argument?

[Pam Bondi]

Well, Johnson singled out Attorney General Pam Bondi, who has been a target for many in the MAGA movement who are feeling betrayed by the administration over all this Epstein business, but who don't seem willing to pin that blame on the president. So back in February, Bondi told Fox News that Epstein's alleged client list was on her for review, indicating she would want to release that. But now the Justice Department says there is no list, they're not going to release more information. And Bondi now says she was referring to the entirety of the Epstein files. Mike Johnson said Bondi needs to, quote, come forward and explain that to everybody. Now, Bondi has brushed off questions about her handling of this material, and so far, Trump is defending Her. Yesterday, the president said she's been handling this all quite well. But he also said, quote, whatever she thinks is credible, she should release. Which sounds a lot, Steve, like what many of his supporters have been calling for.

[Steve Inskeep]

What has made this case so important to so many people who are Trump supporters?

[Pam Bondi]

Well, for many conspiracy theorists, Jeffrey Epstein's story is really this striking example of what they believe is a satanic cabal of pedophiles who are entrenched among the world's most powerful people. You know, that is the central belief animating the QAnon conspiracy theory, which also posits that Donald Trump is destined to defeat that cabal. And Trump and his allies have in the past, you know, embrace some of these ideas. Trump promised to release the government's files about Epstein while he was on the campaign trail last year. He appointed FBI leaders who had helped promote conspiracy theories about Epstein and his death. So since the Department of Justice said last week, look, nothing to see here, case closed, many of those who have bought into this conspiratorial worldview, they've been trying to make sense of this administration's backtracking.

[Steve Inskeep]

How's that going for them?

[Pam Bondi]

Well, it's been a challenge because Trump himself is so core to this belief about an existential battle with the so called deep state. I spoke to Mike Rothschild, a journalist and author who focused on conspiracy theories.

[Scott Horsley]

It's trying to reconcile two things that both cannot be true at the same time and finding a way to make both of them true.

[Pam Bondi]

Now, for many people, this process involves pivoting to new explanations. And this is what Trump himself did on Truth Social this weekend. He spun up a new baseless conspiracy theory that actually the Epstein files were created by President Obama, Hillary Clinton, and the Biden administration. Then there's others who have been pivoting to another iteration of the DA State conspiracy, which is often anti Semitic. They're claiming, without evidence that Epstein was involved with Israeli intelligence. And then for still others, the administration's failure to release the files is just further proof that the deep state is just too powerful for Trump to overcome, even as president. And so even as Trump is telling his supporters to forget about Epstein, they are demanding that the administration release whatever it is that they have on him.

[Steve Inskeep]

Adjusting the theories to account for new inconvenient information. Shannon, thanks so much.

[Pam Bondi]

Thanks, Steve.

[Steve Inskeep]

That's NPR's Shannon Bond.

[Sarah McCammon]

Today, the Senate debates a measure to take back funding that Congress already approved.

[Steve Inskeep]

Most of it is foreign aid, and some of it is two years worth of funding for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. Most of that money goes to local public radio and TV stations, including those that carry NPR News. Lawmakers made some changes to the proposal yesterday, and then just barely got it through a test vote.

[Sarah McCammon]

Here to talk about the vote and what it means is NPR correspondent Scott Newman. Good morning, Scott.

[Scott Newman]

Good morning.

[Sarah McCammon]

And a note. Under NPR's protocol for covering itself, no NPR corporate or news executive has had a hand in this coverage. So, Scott, just how close was this vote?

[Scott Newman]

Really close. In fact, Vice President Vance had to break a 5050 tie. Senate Democrats all voted no. They say the cuts would have a devastating effect on public radio and TV stations. But Democrats were joined by three prominent Republicans. Former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Alaska's Lisa Murkowski, and the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, Senator Susan Collins of Maine. Now, NPR gets about 1% of its funding directly from the federal government, which also funds the member stations. But they get a bigger chunk of their budgets from the federal government through the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. Republicans want to cut funds to NPR and PBS because what they say is political bias, a charge that the networks strongly deny. Murkowski defended the foreign aid programs, but ahead of yesterday's vote, she also expressed support for public broadcasting.

[Sarah McCammon]

If you don't like what's going on within npr, you think that there's too much bias there. We can address that. We can address that, but you don't need to gut the entire Corporation for Public broadcasting.

[Scott Newman]

But Murkowski, McConnell, and Collins all expressed concern about the White House Office of Management and Budget not making clear how the cuts would be applied. McConnell spoke briefly with reporters after the vote. He said he doesn't know where he'll come out in the end, but he thinks the White House needs to make a stronger case for the cuts.

[Shannon Bond]

They would like a blank check. That's what they would like. And I. I don't think that's appropriate.

[Scott Newman]

Murkowski also expressed concern about the whole idea of recision, which blurs the separation of powers by stepping on Congress's power of the purse.

[Sarah McCammon]

We mentioned this bill already passed the House. How does the bill moving forward in the Senate compare with that? Aren't there some key differences?

[Scott Newman]

Right. One program that's been on the chopping block was pepfar, an HIV AIDS program started by President George W. Bush. It's credited with saving millions of lives in the developing world. That program was saved from rescission by the Senate Appropriations Committee. And some Republicans from states that are underserved by commercial broadcasters have criticized the cuts to public broadcasting, which they say their constituents rely on for information and emergency alerts. One of them is South Dakota Republican Senator Mike Rounds. He said yesterday that he'd helped broker a deal with the White House outside the rescission package to directly fund 28 rural public radio stations in nine states that serve mostly Native American listeners. But other foreign aid, food and health programs are still part of the package and could be threatened.

[Sarah McCammon]

Okay, so what's next here?

[Scott Newman]

Well, the clock is ticking. The Senate debate is expected to begin this morning, followed by a vote. But if additional changes are made, they'll need to be vetted first by the Senate parliamentarian, then the whole thing goes back to the House for a final vote. If it passes, the Corporation for Public Broadcasting will lose the funding that Congress appropriated for it for fiscal years 2026 and 2027.

[Sarah McCammon]

All right. That's NPR's Scott Newman. Thank you, Scott.

[Scott Newman]

Thank you.

[Steve Inskeep]

And that is up first for this Wednesday, July 16th. I'm Steve Inskeep.

[Sarah McCammon]

And I'm Sarah McCammon. You can listen to this podcast sponsor free while financially supporting public media with UpFirst Plus. Learn more at plus.NPR.org that's plus.NPR.org Today's.

[Steve Inskeep]

Up first was edited by Raphael Nam, Brett Neely, Jerry Holmes, janaya Williams and H.J. mai. It was produced by Ziad Buch, Nia Dumas and Christopher Thomas. And we get engineering support from David Greenberg. Our technical director is Zoe Vangenhoven. Join us tomorrow.

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