Trump-Iran Ceasefire, Iran On Trump's Reversal, Markets React To Reopening Of Hormuz

Summary

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Up First (NPR)

Episode: Trump-Iran Ceasefire, Iran On Trump's Reversal, Markets React To Reopening Of Hormuz
Date: April 8, 2026
Hosts: Leila Fadel, Steve Inskeep
Guests/Correspondents: Franco Ordoñez, Dee Paraz, Maria Aspen

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Episode Overview

Today's "Up First" episode unpacks the dramatic ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, President Trump's reversal on his aggressive stance, and the immediate global market reaction as the Strait of Hormuz is temporarily reopened. The hosts and NPR correspondents discuss the contents and fragility of the ceasefire, conflicting statements from involved parties, Iran’s position after the conflict, the exclusion of Lebanon from the ceasefire, and the turbulent response from financial markets.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Ceasefire Between U.S. and Iran

• Announcement: President Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, just before a self-imposed deadline, under the condition that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz for negotiations.
  • “President Trump agreed to a ceasefire with Iran shortly before his self-imposed deadline to end its civilization.” — Leila Fadel, 00:02
• Iran’s Stance: Iran claims the basis for final negotiations will be their proposal, asserting continued control over the Strait and readiness to defend its position.
• Content of U.S.-Iran Deal:
  • 10-point Iranian proposal as the negotiation framework (details unspecified, fluid).
  • Trump claims the deal will include “no enrichment of uranium” and cooperative efforts to remove deeply buried nuclear material.
  • Discussion of sanction and tariff relief for Iran.
  • “Trump wrote on social media that he made the decision based on conversations with the Prime Minister of Pakistan… claiming the deal would include no enrichment of uranium…” — Franco Ordoñez, 03:11
• Military Action Continues: Despite the deal, Iran continues to fire missiles and Israel is launching major attacks in Lebanon, notably not included in the ceasefire.

2. Credibility, Negotiations, and Political Fallout

• Trump’s Position:
  • Critics say Trump has backed down from previous threats, potentially weakening his credibility.
  • Belief that he underestimated Iran’s resilience.
  • “Trump is often using this belligerent language...the threats, frankly, that he made over the last 72 hours were really breathtaking in how scary they were…” — Franco Ordoñez, 04:03
• U.S. Military Remains Vigilant: Trump says military forces will “just [be] hanging out to enforce the deal.”
• Role of Other Parties:
  • Pakistani Prime Minister praised as a broker.
  • Trump expected to meet with NATO Secretary General to discuss next steps.
• Israeli Exclusion of Lebanon:
  • Israel explicitly states the ceasefire does not halt its attacks on Lebanon.
  • Opposition within Israel claims Netanyahu was sidelined in negotiations—potential political and strategic consequences.

3. Regional Implications & Iranian Domestic View

• Strait of Hormuz:
  • Iran maintains control over shipping for the two-week period, leveraging this as a source of strength.
  • “Iran will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz, and any ships…will do so on Iran's terms.” — Dee Paraz, 08:32
• State Media & Public Sentiment in Iran:
  • Official media portrays ceasefire as a victory, with celebrations.
  • Underlying anxiety persists; many Iranians fear for the future, with some seeing the ceasefire as quashing hopes for regime change.
  • "You came and killed so many of our people...now the country is entirely under the control of the Revolutionary Guard, which is far more hardline than the previous supreme leader." — Anonymous Iranian woman (via Dee Paraz), 09:21
• Next Steps:
  • U.S. and Iran to meet in Islamabad to continue negotiations, with uranium enrichment and Strait control as key sticking points.

4. Ongoing Conflict: Israel-Lebanon

• Ceasefire Exclusion:
  • Israel continues to intensify its military operations in Lebanon, fighting Hezbollah.
  • Dispute over whether Lebanon was included in ceasefire; Iran and Hezbollah claim it should be, Israel insists it is not.
  • “Hezbollah announced this morning that it is abiding by the terms of that ceasefire. And Iran says the exclusion of Lebanon in this deal is unac[ceptable]." — Dee Paraz, 07:01

5. Global Markets React to Ceasefire

• Immediate Market Rally:
  • Oil prices initially rose, then dropped as ceasefire news broke.
  • Nikkei posts biggest gains in a year; Dow surges over 1,300 points (3%) in morning trading.
• Skepticism About Lasting Impact:
  • Analysts warn that damage to oil infrastructure ensures prices will remain elevated.
  • Pattern of volatility persists; repeated swings over news of escalation and de-escalation.
  • “We are likely to see higher oil prices even if we see a quick de-escalation of the conflict, because there has been extensive structural damage done to oil refineries and infrastructure in the Middle East.” — Katie Klingensmith (via Maria Aspen), 13:46
• Whiplash for Investors & Public:
  • Ongoing uncertainty discourages both Wall Street and “Main Street” participants.
  • Investors wary of political influence on markets; some note “well-timed” trades correlating with announcements.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• “President Trump agreed to a ceasefire with Iran shortly before his self-imposed deadline to end its civilization.”
  — Leila Fadel, 00:02

• “Iran begged for this ceasefire and we all know it.”
  — Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, quoted by Franco Ordoñez, 02:27

• “It's very specific significant, especially if they get to that nuclear material. And we should be clear…Trump is often using this belligerent language…”
  — Franco Ordoñez, 04:03

• “Iran will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz, and any ships that are granted passage over the next two weeks will do so on Iran's terms.”
  — Dee Paraz, 08:32

• “Experience has shown that the start of negotiation does not mean the end of hostilities.”
  — Mohammad Javadi Jarami, former Iranian minister, paraphrased by Dee Paraz, 08:32

• “For many, the ceasefire effectively means the end of any hope they had of real regime change. …Now the country is entirely under the control of the Revolutionary Guard, which is far more hardline than the previous supreme leader.”
  — Anonymous Iranian woman, via Dee Paraz, 09:21

• “What we often see during times of heightened uncertainty and volatility is...a big day in markets and a terrible day in markets and a big day in markets and a terrible day in markets. Nobody enjoys that.”
  — Katie Klingensmith, via Maria Aspen, 12:43

• “Are investors and observers ever suspicious about the way the president keeps moving the markets up and down?”
  — Steve Inskeep, 14:05

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Important Segment Timestamps

• 00:02 – 00:37: Introduction; recap of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz situation.
• 02:19 – 06:19: Analysis of U.S. motivations, Trump’s reversal, deal details, and credibility questions with Franco Ordoñez.
• 06:54 – 10:49: Ground update from Iran/Turkey border, Israeli-Lebanese exclusion, and Iranian public sentiment with Dee Paraz.
• 10:50 – 14:46: Global market reaction and financial analysis, ongoing volatility explained with Maria Aspen.

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Conclusion

This episode offers crucial context for the sudden U.S.-Iran ceasefire, highlighting the shifting goalposts of Trump administration policy, regional complexities, and direct market consequences. While an uneasy pause holds in the Gulf, violence continues elsewhere and financial markets reel from uncertainty—making clear that the challenges of war and peace in the Middle East are far from resolved.

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Transcript

[Layla Falden]

President Trump agreed to a ceasefire with Iran shortly before his self imposed deadline to end its civilization.

[Steve Inskeep]

Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz, which is to open for two weeks during negotiations.

[Layla Falden]

I'm Layla Falden. That's Steve Inskeep. And this is up first from NPR News. What exactly is in the agreement that stops the war? Iranians assert the US Agreed to negotiate final terms on the basis of their proposal. President Trump did not get the regime change he called called for. Israel says the ceasefire does not include its invasion of Lebanon.

[Steve Inskeep]

Also, what does a ceasefire mean for global markets? Oil prices went up Tuesday morning, then quickly fell as the news spread. Analysts warn the damage to oil infrastructure will keep prices elevated. Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day.

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[Steve Inskeep]

are talking about the ceasefire and the war with Iran. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth spoke with reporters this morning and he claimed victory.

[Franco Ordonez]

President Trump forged this moment. Iran begged for this ceasefire and we all know it.

[Layla Falden]

The president posted on social media that he had agreed to a two week ceasefire on the condition that Iran agrees to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But that ceasefire already seems shaky. Iran has fired missiles and Israel is carrying out a series of intense and deadly attacks from the south of Lebanon to central Beirut. Right now, Israel says Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire where it's expanding its invasion. Iran says it is.

[Steve Inskeep]

In a moment, we'll talk with the former commander of US Military operations across the Middle East. We begin with NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordonez. Franco, welcome back.

[Franco Ordonez]

Thank you, Steve.

[Steve Inskeep]

Okay, so what do you make of this dramatic change?

[Franco Ordonez]

Yeah, I mean, it is quite the walking back from his bombastic post yesterday. And actually over the weekend when Trump used the F word telling Iran to open, open the strait. You know, Trump wrote on social media that he made the decision based on conversations with the Prime Minister of Pakistan. You know, Trump said the US received a 10 point proposal from Iran, which Trump described as a workable basis on which to negotiate, though the details do remain fluid. He did add some details, though, about the deal on Wednesday morning, claiming the deal would include no enrichment of uranium and said the US Would be working with Iran to, quote, dig up and remove all of that deeply buried nuclear material in the mountain. He also said the US Is talking tariff and sanction relief with Iran.

[Steve Inskeep]

Really interesting to hear the President say there is discussion of nuclear material because we hadn't heard that as part of this deal before. How significant overall is this?

[Franco Ordonez]

No, absolutely. I mean, it's very specific significant, especially if they get to that nuclear material. And we should be clear, though, that Trump is often using kind of this belligerent language that the threats, frankly, that he made over the last 72 hours were really breathtaking in how, you know, scary they were. It's, of course, never a bad thing to kind of avoid the, you know, dire scenario that Trump was kind of describing. But by backing down, Trump also, you know, risks damaging his own credibility. I mean, he's likely to face some criticism, even more so now that, you know, he has a reputation of backing down from some of his most flattening rhetoric.

[Steve Inskeep]

Okay, so the Iranians have proclaimed that the basis for these negotiations are the Iranian proposal. To what extent has the United States signed onto that proposal?

[Franco Ordonez]

Yeah, I mean, they've definitely say this is a proposal that's really just still in the works. I mean, Trump again said this was something to work with, with, but hasn't necessarily agreed to it. You know, Trump is meeting today with NATO Secretary General Mark Rudda of the White House where this is expected to be a big part of the discussions. You know, Steve, Trump clearly wants this war to end. Trump later posted that the ceasefire was a big deal for world peace. But Trump also says the military is going to be, quote, just hanging out to enforce the deal. So we'll see what happens over the course of the next two weeks. I mean, it's potentially a really ugly cycle.

[Steve Inskeep]

I don't get the sense, Franco, that this is exactly where the president expected to be when he launched this war more than a month ago.

[Franco Ordonez]

No, I agree. I mean, I think Trump really underestimated Iran's resilience. I mean, that is the take of many analysts, including Nate Swanson, who worked on the Iran portfolio in the Obama administration and the early Trump years. He told me that Trump took this position that if he put enough pressure on Iran that eventually they would capitulate.

[Layla Falden]

And in some ways Iran's, you know, obviously weakened and they've been struck however many, 25,000 times or whatever the number is now, you know, but they're strategically, they have a new pillar of their security architecture that didn't exist before this war.

[Maria Aspen]

And so in some ways they're stronger.

[Franco Ordonez]

Yeah, I mean, he's talking about the Strait of Hormuz, of course, which he says is a much more tangible way to inflict immediate pain on the US and global markets. And even in Trump's post seems to acknowledge that Iran now has the power over the Strait. It's a new tool on their arsenal.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR's Franco Adrian, thanks so much.

[Franco Ordonez]

Thanks, Steve.

[Layla Falden]

The U.S. and Iran have reached a ceasefire deal shortly before President Trump's self imposed deadline for Iran to meet his demands or face annihilation. Now negotiations will begin on a longer term deal. Trump said a 10 point plan from Iran will be the basis of those talks. But since the announcement, Iran has fired missiles and Israel's has carried out a series of deadly attacks, including in central Beirut. For the latest we're joined by NPR's Deep Harvez who is is reporting from Turkey's border with Iran. Good morning, Dee.

[Dee Paraz]

Hey, Leila.

[Layla Falden]

So this is supposed to be a pause in the fighting, but this morning we're still seeing attacks. What's going on?

[Dee Paraz]

Right. Well, there were missiles flying into Israel in several Gulf Arab states after the agreement was announced last night. And the Israeli military is continuing to strike Lebanon today. Massive explosions were just heard in Beirut and beyond. And Lebanon was supposed to be part of this, a ceasefire deal, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office released a statement this morning saying that while Israel supports the ceasefire, that this two week deal does not include Lebanon. And we're really seeing that today in what the Israelis are calling their largest strikes there. And they've been fighting Iranian backed Hezbollah forces primarily in southern Lebanon with hostilities really escalating in recent weeks. Now Hezbollah announced this morning that it is abiding by the terms of that ceasefire. And Iran says the exclusion of Lebanon in this deal is unac. But an Israeli source not authorized to speak to the media told NPR that President Trump had a phone call with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before the ceasefire was announced. And this is domestically problematic for Netanyahu. Opposition leader Yair Lapid on X said that Netanyahu wasn't even included in the negotiations and called it a political and strategic failure.

[Layla Falden]

Yeah, and I'll point out that it's a fight between Israel and Hezbollah, but the effect on civilians cannot be underscored enough. Okay, so fighting continues, but both the US And Iraq have agreed to this pause. We are hearing Secretary of Defense Pete Hexa saying now the US Had a decisive military victory and Iran begged for the ceasefire. What are Iranian officials saying?

[Dee Paraz]

Iranian state media is spinning this as a big victory for Iran. And Iran's Foreign Minister Abbasa actually posted a statement on X expressing his gratitude to Pakistani Prime Minister Shabbat Sharif, you know, for brokering this ceasefire. But his statement also makes one thing really clear. Iran will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz, and any ships that are granted passage over the next two weeks will do so on Iran's terms. And President Masoud Pezeshkian also posted on Next that the country stands together. So in Iran, there's some relief, but people are also wary. You know, the former Minister of Communication, Mohammad Javadi Jarami, was quoted on state media saying, quote, experience has shown that the start of negotiation does not mean the end of hostilities. And he urged people to remain ready and vigilant.

[Layla Falden]

And how are ordinary Iranians feeling about this?

[Dee Paraz]

Well, as I said, state media is really showing this as a win. They're showing images of people jubilantly waving flags in the streets. And that's obviously the image the government wants to project. But, you know, Leila, for many, the ceasefire effectively means the end of any hope they had of real regime change. I spoke to a woman from Tehran who just crossed the border into Turkey a couple of days ago about the potential for a ceasefire. And she didn't want to be named, fearing reprisal for when she returns home. And here's what she said. She's addressing Trump directly, saying, you came and killed so many of our people. You damaged our infrastructure. And then she goes on to say this. She says that what this war effectively triggered in Iran was a military couple, and now the country is entirely under the control of the Revolutionary Guard, which is far more hardline than the previous supreme leader.

[Layla Falden]

So what's next?

[Dee Paraz]

Well, first let's see if everyone sticks to the terms of this agreement. But US And Iran are to meet in Islamabad on Friday to continue negotiations. But they're very far apart in some key points, including uranium enrichment. Iran wants to continue doing that. That is strictly against Israel and US Demands. And they also want to continue to control the Strait of Hormuz. So we'll see what comes out of the next round of talks on Friday.

[Layla Falden]

That's NPR's Dee Paraz in Van, Turkey. Thank you, Dee.

[Dee Paraz]

Thank you.

[Steve Inskeep]

Okay. Oil prices are falling this morning, as you would imagine. Global investors are absorbing the news of this ceasefire and an end for the moment of a threat to bomb Iran's power plants and bridges.

[Layla Falden]

Asian and European markets rallied, with Japan's Nikkei gaining the most in almost a year. On Wall street, the Dow jumped more than 1300 points, or nearly 3% in morning trading. The benchmark S&P 500 and the tech heavy NASDAQ also surged.

[Steve Inskeep]

Sounds pret. Talk it through, though, with NPR's Maria Aspen. Good morning.

[Maria Aspen]

Good morning.

[Steve Inskeep]

Okay. What are investors seeing and feeling?

[Maria Aspen]

So there is a whole lot of relief out there, but I hate to throw some cold water on this. We have to see how long it will last because this is just the latest twist in what's already been a really turbulent spring for Wall street and global markets. Investors are swinging from hope to fear and back again last week. Wall street had its best day since last spring, but stocks are still down since the start of the year and US Markets just ended their worst quarter in nearly four years.

[Steve Inskeep]

Yeah, I was just looking at this chart. It says steady path downward. Has that just been about the war?

[Maria Aspen]

There is more going on in the markets. But, Steve, the war is absolutely the biggest story right now. It's already created an energy crisis with the virtual shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. And as you know, that's made oil prices soar, which affects not only what we pay at the gas pump, but also what companies pay for shipping and trucking. And that then increases what we as consumers pay for everything. And then meanwhile, as President Trump makes threats and then de escalates the war, there's just been this tremendous whiplash on Wall street as markets sell off and then rally. I talked about all this last week with Katie Klingensmith. She's the chief investment strategist for the financial advisor Edelman Financial Engines.

[Layla Falden]

What we often see during times of heightened uncertainty and volatility is we'll see a big day in markets and a terrible day in markets and a big day in markets and a terrible day in markets. Nobody enjoys that.

[Maria Aspen]

And as she points out, that can make everyone just not sure what to do next, whether we're talking investors on Wall street or all of us on Main Street.

[Steve Inskeep]

Let's just talk about reality here, though. The president says extreme things all the time and then backs away almost all the time. Why have investors this year been reacting in such extreme ways? Sell, buy.

[Maria Aspen]

Well, the Iran war is a little different than all the tariffs whiplash we saw last year. I mean, what happens next in this case is not just up to the president. A lot does depend on how Iran responds to what he does. And the war has already had that real impact on gas and diesel prices. That's maybe more immediate than the price spikes we saw with some of the more extreme tariffs Trump unveiled a year ago and then kind of moderated. A war is also just harder to unwind than tariffs. This is how Clingan Smith puts it.

[Layla Falden]

We are likely to see higher oil prices even if we see a quick de escalation of the conflict, because there has been extensive structural damage done to oil refineries and infrastructure in the Middle East.

[Maria Aspen]

And as she points out, that damage will take a lot more time to fix, even if the war ends tomorrow.

[Steve Inskeep]

Are investors and observers ever suspicious about the way the president keeps moving the markets up and down?

[Maria Aspen]

Well, some investors tell me this is just what Trump does and says this is how he negotiates. And they're trying to shrug off the noise and remain focused on what else is going on in the economy. But what the president does and says still has real impact in the markets. His threat yesterday to wipe out civilization pushed markets down. The ceasefire seems likely to push them back up. And to your point, Steve, this is a pattern that we've seen a few times since the war began. And observers have noticed a lot of well timed stock trades in both traditional markets and the newer prediction markets.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR's Maria Aspen. Thanks so much.

[Maria Aspen]

Thank you.

[Steve Inskeep]

And that's up for us for this Wednesday, April 8th. I'm Steve Inskeep.

[Layla Falden]

And I'm Laila Falden. Today's episode of up first was edited by Rebecca Metzler, Jerry Holmes, Rafael Naom, Mohamed Alvardisi and Alice Wolfley. It was produced by Ziad Buch and Ava Pukach. Our director is Katie Klein. We get engineering support from Nisha Hyness. Our technical director is Carly Strange. And our supervising producer is Michael Lipkin. Join us again tomorrow.

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