Trump's Iran Progress Claims, Oil Industry Profit From Iran War, Rubio Meets Pope Leo

Summary

Podcast Summary: Up First from NPR

Episode: Trump's Iran Progress Claims, Oil Industry Profit From Iran War, Rubio Meets Pope Leo
Date: May 7, 2026
Hosts: Layla Fadel, Michel Martin
Reporters/Guests: Mara Lyson, Camila Domonosky, Megan Williams

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Overview

This episode of NPR’s Up First delivers concise analysis on three major stories:

• President Trump’s repeated claims of progress toward a deal with Iran,
• How the ongoing conflict has led to oil industry profits and sustained global price hikes,
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s challenging diplomatic mission to the Vatican following Trump’s public attacks on Pope Leo, the first American pope.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. President Trump’s Iran Deal Claims

• Trump insists a deal with Iran is “close,” repeatedly stating progress, though evidence is lacking.
  • Trump: “We're doing very well in Iran. It's going very smoothly, and we'll see what happens.” (00:05, 02:10)
• Iran, however, publicly shows no movement. Its latest statement merely notes it is “reviewing” a US proposal—no clear willingness to compromise.
• Disputed control over the Strait of Hormuz remains central, with no Iranian agreement to end uranium enrichment or commit to reopening the strategic waterway.
  • Mara Lyson: “Iran has not agreed yet to open the Strait of Hormuz. They have not agreed to stop enriching uranium or give up their stockpile …” (04:18)
• Domestically, the ongoing war is politically costly:
  • US gas prices are up more than $1.30 from a year ago, at $4.50/gallon (02:18).
  • Trump’s approval rating hits a new low (37%; NPR/PBS News/Marist poll).
  • Trump justifies costs: “Paying more for gas at the pump was worth it to keep Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.” (04:45 summarized)
• International skepticism and “Groundhog Day” effect:
  • Allies, like German Chancellor Frederick Mertz, openly question the US’s lack of strategy.
  • Mara Lyson: “That could be the conclusion that many of our allies and enemies may be drawing, that Trump is making it up as he goes along.” (04:45)

Notable Quotes

• Trump: “Now we're doing well. Now we have to get what we have to get. If we don't do that, we'll have to go a big step further.” (03:05)
• Trump (defensive): “You don't know that. You don't know what's going on behind US ships.” (03:58)

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2. Oil Industry Profits & Market Impact

• Oil companies are benefitting from high prices tied to the Iran conflict, though some quarterly profits appear muted due to accounting lag (profits not booked until delivery).
• Exxon CEO Darren Woods: “If you look at the unprecedented disruption in the world supply of oil and natural gas, the market hasn’t seen the full impact yet.” (06:41)
• Executives expect prices to remain high even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, as global inventories need to be rebuilt.
  • Camila Domonosky: “The world is going to want to buy a lot of oil to rebuild the stockpiles it’s been burning through. So oil will stay high for a while.” (07:11)
• High oil prices drive US inflation and could even spark recession, which would also hurt oil companies in the long run.
• Companies hesitate to increase output:
  • CEO of Chevron, Mike Wirth: “We could hit the gas and begin to grow it again, but I don’t know what the future looks like. For right now, I think it’s really steady as she goes.” (07:54-07:57)
  • Wall Street favors cash returns to investors over risky new drilling during such volatility.
• US intervention in Venezuela: Oil production there is up 14%, yet political instability and the complexity of Venezuelan oil extraction limit any rapid solution.
  • Camila Domonosky: “The oil that Venezuela has is especially tricky to extract and process ... We are not talking about a quick solution to the oil crisis here.” (08:48)

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3. Marco Rubio Meets the Pope Amid US-Vatican Rift

• Background: Trump has publicly attacked Pope Leo (the first American pope), calling him “weak” and falsely suggesting he supports nuclear proliferation in Iran.
  • Trump: “The Pope was endangering a lot of Catholics by opposing the war.” (10:04 summarized by Megan Williams)
• Pope Leo maintains the church’s anti-war and anti-nuclear-weapon stance.
  • Pope Leo: “The mission of the church is to preach peace … It’s much better to enter into dialogue than to look for arms and to support the arms industry, which gains billions and billions of dollars each year instead of sitting down at the table, solving our problems.” (10:47)
• Rubio’s diplomatic challenge: He must represent a White House at odds with the Vatican while smoothing relations and avoiding missteps (such as VP J.D. Vance’s previous mischaracterizations of Catholic social teaching).
  • Megan Williams: “He has to show respect for the pope while representing an administration whose leader has repeatedly attacked the pope.” (11:16)
• Vatican’s broader concern: Risks to Christian communities in the Middle East, not just Iran.
  • Vatican expert Massimo Fagioli: “We are very concerned about what’s happening not just in Iran, but also in Israel, in Lebanon.” (11:29)
• Italian Prime Minister Meloni, once close to Trump, publicly defends the pope: Trump then targets her as well, straining former alliances.
  • Megan Williams: “Attacking the pope does not play well in Italy, and [Meloni] called his comments unacceptable. After she defended the pope, Trump turned on her, too.” (12:45)

Notable Quotes

• Pope Leo: “The mission of the church is to preach peace... I always believe that it's much better to enter into dialogue than to look for arms…” (10:47)
• Massimo Fagioli: “We are very concerned about what's happening not just in Iran, but also in Israel, in Lebanon.” (11:29)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Trump’s Iran Deal Claims and War Update: 00:02 – 05:40
• Oil Market Disruption & Industry Response: 05:42 – 09:27
• US-Vatican Relations and Rubio’s Diplomatic Visit: 09:35 – 13:14

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Memorable Moments

• Mara Lyson describes the situation as “Groundhog Day” regarding US-Iran negotiations (02:51), highlighting the sense of stagnation and repetition.
• Trump, questioned about Iran’s defiance, gets defensive: “You don't know that. You don't know what's going on behind US Ships.” (03:58)
• Chevron CEO uncertainty: “For right now, I think it's really steady as she goes.” (07:57)
• Pope Leo’s calm rebuff of Trump’s belligerence: “The mission of the church is to preach peace … better to enter into dialogue than to look for arms …” (10:47)
• Italian PM Meloni breaking with Trump over his attacks on the pope, underscoring international diplomatic consequences (12:45).

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Tone & Language

The tone is urgent, analytical, and at times skeptical—mirroring the high-stakes international context and evident exhaustion with ongoing political rhetoric. Hosts and reporters press for clarity, often openly questioning official statements, while guests and experts highlight the underlying complexities and realpolitik.

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Transcript

[Layla Falden]

President Trump keeps saying that a deal with Iran is close.

[President Trump]

We're doing very well in Iran. It's going very smoothly, and we'll see what happens.

[Michelle Martin]

But Iran has shown little sign it's ready to agree to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

[Layla Falden]

I'm Layla Falden. That's Michelle Martin. And this is up first from NPR News. Big oil companies are benefiting from the higher prices because of the war with Iran. Chevron's CEO says it could produce more oil, but the future is too risky to make that bad. How long could oil prices stay elevated?

[Michelle Martin]

And Secretary of State Marco Rubio has the difficult task of smoothing relations with the Vatican as he's set to meet with Pope Leo today. Trump has been attacking the first American pope. Trump accused him of endangering Catholics by opposing the war with Iran. How will that affect the meeting with Rubio? Stay with us. We've got news. You need to start your day.

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[Michelle Martin]

Once again, President Trump claims the US Is on the cusp of a deal with Iran, assuring the public the Iranians are desperate for a deal.

[President Trump]

We're doing very well in Iran. It's going very smoothly and we'll see what happens. They want to make a deal. They want to negotiate.

[Layla Falden]

But once again, Iran has yet to sign on to what Trump is selling. There have been days of public declarations about who controls the Strait of Hormuz and who can sail through and what the US Is and isn't doing about it. All the while, gas prices in the US remain high at a national average of more than $4.50 a gallon for regular gas, according to AAA A year ago, it was $3.15.

[Michelle Martin]

Here to walk us through this is NPR's national political correspondent, Mara Lyson. Mara, good morning.

[Mara Lyson]

Good morning.

[Michelle Martin]

You know, I feel like we've been stuck in this moment for quite some time. Like what? What's the latest?

[Mara Lyson]

You're right. It's like Groundhog Day. Trump keeps on saying we've won the war, but the war never seems to end. He's been consistent. He says over and over again that Iran wants deal and that the operation has been a big success. Here's what he said yesterday.

[President Trump]

Now we're doing well. Now we have to get what we have to get. If we don't do that, we'll have to go a big step further. But with that being said, they want to make a deal. We've had very good talks over the last 24 hours, and it's very possible that we'll make a deal. Yeah, please.

[Mara Lyson]

He doesn't sound completely convinced. He also said, quote, we'll see whether or not they can make a deal that's satisfactory to us. So that's where things stand. That's where they've stood for quite a while.

[Michelle Martin]

But have we seen anything from the other side, from the Iranians, that backs up what President Trump is saying?

[Mara Lyson]

Not yet. We haven't seen the details of an Iranian proposal. Iran did issue a statement yesterday saying they were reviewing the latest proposal from the United States. And yesterday, when asked by a reporter about why Iran has refused to submit even though the US has done so much damage to its military, Trump got angry. And here's what he said.

[President Trump]

You don't know that. You don't know what's going on behind US Ships.

[Camilla Dominosky]

A few days ago.

[President Trump]

Yeah. No, a few days ago. It's a long time ago in the world of war. A few days ago. No. They want to make a deal badly. And we'll see if we get there. If we get there, they can't have nuclear weapons.

[Mara Lyson]

He also said, quote, it would take them 20 years to rebuild if the US left now.

[Michelle Martin]

Okay, so why not leave now?

[Mara Lyson]

One reason could be that not all of the US Objectives have been met. Iran has not agreed yet to open the Strait of Hormuz. They have not agreed to stop enriching uranium or give up their stockpile of enriched uranium. And they haven't agreed with Trump's demand to never have a nuclear weapon.

[Michelle Martin]

So given what we've heard, these threats, these declarations that seem to come and go, that don't seem to come through fruition, is the president in danger of getting tuned out?

[Mara Lyson]

Well, that's another good question. And that could be the conclusion that many of our allies and enemies may be drawing, that Trump is making it up as he goes along. We've heard public comments to that effect from leaders in Europe. German Chancellor Frederick Mertz infuriated Trump when he said last week that the US has no strategy in Iran and of course, at home, the Iran war is a big political problem for the president and his party. Gas prices, as you said, are still over $4 a gallon. The latest NPR PBS News Marist poll found that President Trump is less popular than he's ever been. He's at 37% approval. But Trump said yesterday that paying more for gas at the pump was worth it to keep Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. But of course, Trump himself is not up for election in Novemb. Republicans are, and many of them would like this war to end quickly.

[Michelle Martin]

That is NPR national political correspondent Mara Lyson. Mara, thank you.

[Mara Lyson]

You're welcome.

[Michelle Martin]

Big oil companies are starting to report earnings which have been heavily affected by the war in Iran and its effect on oil prices.

[Layla Falden]

The US Intervention in Venezuela has had a major impact, too. So far we've heard from ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil and Chevron with more to come.

[Michelle Martin]

NPR's Camilla Dominosky has been listening to what executives are saying to investors, and she's here to tell us about that. Good morning.

[Layla Falden]

Good morning.

[Michelle Martin]

So what do these high prices mean for oil producers?

[Camilla Dominosky]

Well, it's a boost to the bottom line. Right. This quarter did actually, because of a sort of accounting quirk. Exxon and Chevron looked like they made less money this quarter. But that's because a lot of the profits that they're going to make from selling oil at the higher prices that we've seen, they just haven't been able to put on their books yet until they physically deliver those shipments. Exxon said if you factor that in, their profits were actually twice, twice what they appeared to be in paper. And executives do expect oil prices to remain high. Here's Darren woods, the CEO of Exxon.

[AT&T/Bombas Announcer]

I think it's obvious to most that if you look at the unprecedented disruption in the world supply of oil and natural gas, the market hasn't seen the full impact of that yet.

[Camilla Dominosky]

He's basically saying that prices could still get higher. And, you know, even if the Strait does reopen soon, it's going to take time to bring production back online, put oil on ships. The world is going to want to buy a lot of oil to Rebuild the stockpiles that it's been burning through. So oil will stay high for a while.

[Michelle Martin]

Okay, so let's just say higher oil prices are good news for oil companies and their investors, but for you and me, not so much.

[Camilla Dominosky]

Yeah, it increases prices at the pump like we just heard from Mara, and that pushes up inflation across the entire economy. I will add as a caveat, there's a risk for oil companies themselves too, because even if prices are high enough for long enough that they cut into demand or even cause a global recession, that's bad for everyone, including the Exxons of the world.

[Michelle Martin]

Could US Companies bring prices down by increasing supply, by producing more oil?

[Camilla Dominosky]

Yeah, they could. That doesn't mean that they will, especially the big companies. Here is the CEO of Chevron, Mike Wirth.

[President Trump]

We could hit the gas and begin

[AT&T/Bombas Announcer]

to grow it again.

[Megan Williams]

But I don't know what the future looks like. For right now, I think it's really steady as she goes.

[Camilla Dominosky]

All of the cash that's coming in at higher oil prices, companies could invest that in new drilling projects, which is then a risk. If the price of oil crashes at some point in the future, they would lose out that investment. Or they could spit that money out as cash to investors. And Wall street has a strong preference for option B, the cash. We could see some different calculations from smaller companies. We got a survey from the Dallas Space Fed a few weeks ago asking a bunch of oil executives what they expect for US Production. Most did anticipate some increase in US Output, but honestly not a huge sort of world market shaping amount.

[Michelle Martin]

And what about a boost in crude oil from Venezuela? Could that help to make up, let's just call it the world's missing oil?

[Camilla Dominosky]

Yeah, partly. We've seen production go up about 14% from Venezuela. That is significant, but it's not the huge, multiple times larger increase that President Trump has pushed for. We saw companies really balk when he pushed for this early in the year with questions about the political stability of the country, what contracts would actually look like. The oil that Venezuela has is especially tricky to extract and process. The higher priced environment we're in now does create more of an incentive to put money into those projects, but it would take a lot of time. We are not talking about a quick solution to the oil crisis here.

[Michelle Martin]

That is NPR's Camila Dominosky. Camilla, thank you.

[Layla Falden]

Thanks.

[Michelle Martin]

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is meeting Pope Leo at the Vatican today after weeks of attacks by President Trump on the first American pope.

[Layla Falden]

Among other complaints, Trump accused Leo of endangering Catholics and repeated his false claim that the pope supports Iran having nuclear weapons. The pope, of course, rejected that and said the church opposes all nuclear arms.

[Michelle Martin]

Reporter Megan Williams is with us now from Rome. Megan, good morning.

[Megan Williams]

Good morning.

[Michelle Martin]

So how did relations between the White House and Pope Leo get to this point?

[Megan Williams]

Yeah, it's been an unusually public rupture. Pope Leo has been a firm critic of the U. S. Israeli war on Iran. He's called for diplomacy and warned against the use of force. Really nothing out of the ordinary for a Catholic leader. But Trump hasn't liked it. And in April, he called the pope weak and terrible on foreign policy. Then on Monday one day, Trump went further. He said the Pope was endangering a lot of Catholics by opposing the war. Now, Leo pushed back. When speaking to reporters near Rome on Tuesday, he said the mission of the church is to preach peace and that the Catholic Church has spoken out for years against nuclear arms.

[President Trump]

And I always believe that it's much better to enter into dialogue than to look for arms and to support the arms industry, which gains billions and billions of dollars each year instead of sitting down at the table solving our problems.

[Megan Williams]

So with this back and forth, Rubio's meeting with the pope is really not a routine diplomatic visit. He has the awkward assignment of trying to smooth relations with the Vatican as Trump keeps picking fights with the pope.

[Michelle Martin]

What are Leo and Rubio each trying to accomplish with this visit?

[Megan Williams]

The pope is worried about Iran, but also about other issues in the Middle East. Here's Vatican expert Massimo Fagioli.

[Mara Lyson]

We are very concerned about what's happening not just in Iran, but also in Israel, in Lebanon.

[Megan Williams]

So the pope is worried about the Middle East, Israel and Lebanon especially, says Fagioli about the risks to the shrinking Christian communities in those countries. Now Rubio has said he will discuss Cuba and religious freedom around the world, issues where the Vatican has really long played a key diplomatic role. But Rubio has a hard job. He has to show respect for the pope while representing an administration whose leader has repeatedly attacked the pope. And he has to avoid irritating the Vatican in ways Vice President J.D. vance has by claiming Catholic teachings support the harsh crackdown on immigration and other things. Fagioli says the decision to send Rubio to Rome was telling James Evans's standing

[Mara Lyson]

in the eyes of the Vatican has not improved. And certainly it didn't help in April when he said the Pope should be careful when he talks about theology.

[Megan Williams]

Now there's another political dimension to this visit. With midterm elections about six months away, the White House does not want conservative Catholic voters thinking Trump is anti.

[Michelle Martin]

Pope Rubio is also meeting with the Italian prime minister, Giorgio Meloni, and apparently she also got pulled into this.

[Megan Williams]

Yes, she did. Meloni was until recently one of Trump's closest allies in Europe, but attacking the pope does not play well in Italy, and she called his comments unacceptable. After she defended the pope, Trump turned on her, too. So when Rubio meets Meloni, they'll likely talk about Iran. But there's also this awkward subtext. Trump's attacks on the pope have now really also become a problem for one of his staunchest European allies.

[Michelle Martin]

That's reporter Meghan Williams in Rome. Megan, thank you.

[Megan Williams]

Thank you.

[Michelle Martin]

And that's up first for Thursday, May 7th. I'm Michele Martin.

[Layla Falden]

And I'm Layla Faldil. Today's episode of up first was edited by Rebecca Metzler, Tina Kraia, Kara Platoni, Mohammed del Bardisi and Adriana Gallardo. It was produced by Ziad Buch and Nia Dumas. Our director is Katie Klein. We get engineering support from Eisha Heines. And our technical director is Carly Strange. Our deputy executive producer is Kelly Dickens. Join us again tomorrow.

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