Trump's Tariff Response, Economics of Tariffs, SCOTUS Rules on Deportations

Summary

Up First from NPR - Episode Summary

Release Date: April 8, 2025
Hosts: Leila Fadel, Steve Inskeep, Michel Martin, A Martinez, Ayesha Rascoe, Scott Simon
Episode Title: Trump's Tariff Response, Economics of Tariffs, SCOTUS Rules on Deportations

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1. President Trump's Tariff Response and Economic Implications

Overview:
The episode delves into President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policies, their impact on global markets, and the potential risks they pose to the U.S. economy. NPR's senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith and chief economics correspondent Scott Horsley provide in-depth analysis of the situation.

Key Discussions:

• Trump's Stance on Tariffs:
  President Trump emphasized patience amid market volatility caused by tariffs. On social media, he encouraged Americans to "be strong, courageous and patient" (02:32). During a press conference in the Oval Office, alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump signaled openness to negotiations while maintaining a firm stance on his tariff policies. He stated, "his tough tariffs are getting trading partners to offer big concessions" (03:51).

• Economic Forecasts and Market Reactions:
  Economists warn that the tariffs could lead to higher prices and potentially tip the U.S. into a recession. Jasmine Garz highlights the risks of "higher unemployment and higher inflation" (00:37). Scott Horsley explains that global markets have reacted nervously, with European and Asian markets gaining while U.S. stock futures reflect anxiety (02:22).

• Federal Reserve's Role:
  The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between curbing inflation and avoiding higher unemployment. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated a reluctance to lower interest rates despite the economic slowdown caused by tariffs. Scott Horsley notes, "if we do fall into recession and see a spike in unemployment, the Fed will probably have to lower interest rates" (07:07).

• Political Ramifications:
  President Trump's economic policies are a double-edged sword politically. Success could bolster his and his party's standing, while failure might lead to significant blame. Tamara Keith points out, "if the dire warnings about prices rising because of tariffs become a reality... the president and his party will get all of the blame" (05:59).

Notable Quotes:

• President Trump:
  "Anybody wants to negotiate... We would have gone to these countries who want to talk, and they will. Well, we don't want to talk now. They're coming to us." (04:07)

• Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers:
  "Trump's tactics here as predatory, especially when tariffs are used to bully some of America's closest allies." (08:38)

2. Supreme Court's Rulings on Deportations under the Alien Enemies Act

Overview:
The Supreme Court issued two significant rulings supporting the Trump administration's use of wartime powers to deport Venezuelan migrants. NPR's immigration correspondent Jasmine Garz breaks down the implications of these decisions.

Key Discussions:

• Deportations Under the Alien Enemies Act:
  The Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration can continue using the Alien Enemies Act to deport Venezuelan migrants, reversing a lower court's temporary halt. However, the Court mandated that migrants receive adequate notice to challenge their deportation (09:52; 10:37).

• Case of Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia:
  The Court temporarily blocked the deportation order for Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia, a Maryland resident with no criminal history, highlighting procedural concerns. Chief Justice Roberts intervened while the Court considers the next steps (12:22).

• Reactions and Implications:

  • Trump Administration: Celebrates the ruling as a "landmark victory" and plans to continue enforcing the Alien Enemies Act.
  • Immigration Advocates: Express significant concern over due process, emphasizing that the rapid deportation process may not allow adequate defense for detainees. There are allegations of wrongful deportations based on flimsy evidence, such as arbitrary tattoos (11:32; 12:22).

Notable Quotes:

• Attorney General Pam Bondi:
  Celebrated the Supreme Court's decision as a victory, supporting the administration's stance on immigration enforcement (11:34).

• Immigration Advocates:
  "The act is designed to move the deportation process so rapidly, it's questionable how much of a chance detainees can actually have to defend themselves." (11:32)

3. The Economics of Tariffs - Deeper Analysis

Overview:
Scott Horsley provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic consequences of the ongoing trade war, highlighting potential benefits and drawbacks.

Key Discussions:

• Impact on Consumers and Businesses:
  Implementation of tariffs is expected to result in higher prices for consumers and slower economic growth. Scott Horsley states, "It's likely going to mean both higher prices and slower economic growth" (06:16).

• Global Trade Dynamics:
  Countries like Japan and Vietnam are sending negotiation teams to the U.S., indicating a readiness to discuss terms. However, the current tariffs remain steep, with European products facing 20% tariffs and Chinese imports potentially exceeding 100% (07:00).

• Potential Economic Benefits:
  While tariffs may force other countries to negotiate, critics argue that Trump's approach is exaggerated and predatory. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and others express that such tactics could undermine alliances and global economic stability (08:05; 08:57).

• Market Sentiment and Future Outlook:
  Investor anxiety remains high, but recent stronger-than-expected U.S. job reports provide some optimism. However, persistent inflation concerns and the threat of a recession keep the economic outlook uncertain (07:07).

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Horsley:
  "Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned he and his colleagues could end up caught in a tug of war between higher unemployment and higher inflation." (07:00)

• JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon:
  Expressed growing pushback against the administration's tariff policies, signaling potential shifts in corporate support (08:38).

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Conclusion

Today's episode of Up First from NPR presents a multifaceted examination of President Trump's tariff policies and their economic repercussions, alongside pivotal Supreme Court rulings affecting immigration enforcement. The discussions illuminate the delicate balance between assertive economic strategies and their broader implications for the U.S. economy and international relations. Additionally, the legal battles surrounding deportations under the Alien Enemies Act highlight ongoing tensions in immigration policy and civil liberties.

For listeners seeking a comprehensive understanding of these critical issues shaping the nation's landscape, this episode provides valuable insights and expert analysis.

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Notable Timestamps:

• 02:32 - Trump's message on social media
• 03:51 - Trump's comments on negotiating partners
• 05:59 - Political risks of tariff policies
• 07:07 - Federal Reserve's potential response
• 08:05 - Economic benefits and criticisms of tariffs
• 11:32 - Concerns over due process in deportations
• 12:22 - Case study of Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia

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This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the April 8, 2025 episode of NPR's Up First, providing a clear and comprehensive overview for both regular listeners and new audiences.

Transcript

[Layla Fadell]

Is a even here.

[Amy Martinez]

I've been here.

[Scott Horsley]

Layla Fadell, you've been here.

[Amy Martinez]

I never leave. I'm always awake.

[Layla Fadell]

You just sit in that studio waiting for the show to start.

[Amy Martinez]

President Trump calls for patience after markets tumble in response to tariffs.

[Tamara Keith]

If I didn't do what I did over the last couple of weeks, you wouldn't. If anybody wants to negotiate as countries.

[Layla Fadell]

Come to the table, will tariffs stay put?

[Amy Martinez]

I'm Amy Martinez. That's Layla Foddle. And this is up first from npr. Forecasters warn of recession as tariffs could mean higher prices and slow down growth. Fed chair agrees.

[Jasmine Garz]

In this situation, you actually have risks for higher unemployment and higher inflation.

[Layla Fadell]

And two legal wins for the Trump administration in its immigration crackdown. The Supreme Court rules it can continue to use wartime power to deport Venezuelan migrants, at least for now. And Chief Justice John Roberts temporarily blocks a lower court's order to return a Maryland father. Stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day foreign.

[Roberta Rampton]

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[Rafael Nahm]

Sponsor Rosetta Stone, an expert in language learning for 30 years. Right now, NPR listeners can get Rosetta Stone's lifetime membership to 25 different languages for 50% off. Learn more at RosettaStone.com NPR Global Markets.

[Layla Fadell]

Are off to a calmer start today amid days of tariff induced turmoil. Markets in Europe and Asia made gains and US Stock future.

[Amy Martinez]

On social media yesterday, President Trump called for people to, quote, be strong, courageous and patient in the Oval Office.

[Tamara Keith]

He said this it's the only chance our country will have to reset the table because no other president would be willing to do what I'm doing or to even go through it. Now, I don't mind going through it because I see a beautiful picture at the end.

[Amy Martinez]

But he also appears open to negotiations.

[Layla Fadell]

Here with the latest on where the president's tariff policy is, NPR senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith. Hey, Tam.

[Nia Dumas]

Good morning.

[Layla Fadell]

Good morning. So there has been a question all along of whether the president's steep tariffs are just an elaborate negotiating tactic or an enduring policy shift. What have you learned?

[Nia Dumas]

For now, at least, the answer appears to be yes. And President Trump took questions from the press in the Oval Office yesterday, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sitting in the chair next to him. And Netanyahu announced he would quickly eliminate all tariffs on American goods and reduce the US Trade deficit to zero. But when asked whether he would reduce the 17% tariff the US is set to apply to Israeli goods, Trump said maybe not. He said his tough tariffs are getting trading partners to offer big concessions.

[Tamara Keith]

Virtually every country wants to negotiate. If I didn't do what I did over the last couple of weeks, you wouldn't have. Anybody wants to negotiate. We would have gone to these countries who want to talk, and they will. Well, we don't want to talk now. They're coming to us.

[Nia Dumas]

He says a team from Japan is coming to the US to negotiate. Vietnam is sending one, too. So Trump is certainly signaling that he is open to negotiating, but he is also digging in.

[Layla Fadell]

How is he digging in?

[Nia Dumas]

Well, the president was asked if he might put a pause on his tariffs while negotiations play out, and he said no. Trump and top administration officials continue to make the case that this is about wholly restructuring the US Relationship with the global economy, bringing jobs and manufacturing, manufacturing back to the US and making the US Wealthy. The president is urging patience. And then there's China. They slapped a retaliatory tariff on the US After Trump's announcement last week. Trump is saying that if they don't reverse course, he will hike the tax on Chinese imports even higher, for a grand total of a 104% tariff. China isn't backing down, though, and overnight its Commerce Ministry accused the US of blackmail, saying in a statement, quote, china will fight till the end.

[Layla Fadell]

Now the stock markets are reflecting this anxiety about the impact these tariffs could have on trade and the US Economy in the short term. What are the politics of these tariffs for the president and his party?

[Nia Dumas]

Well, President Trump believes firmly that he is right about tariffs. And all the experts and economists who say prices will go up and the US could be thrown into recession, they're all wrong. But if the dire warnings about prices rising because of tariffs become a reality, a reality that voters feel or if the economy slows down or falls into recession, there won't be any question about whose economy this is. President Trump has made a historically dramatic economic policy move here based on a conviction that he has held since the 1980s. If he succeeds, he can claim all the credit, but if he fails, he and his party will get all of the blame.

[Layla Fadell]

NPR's Tamara Keith. Thanks, Tam.

[Nia Dumas]

You're welcome.

[Layla Fadell]

We're going to talk through the economics of this trade war now with NPR's chief economics correspondent Scott Horsley. Good morning, Scott.

[Scott Horsley]

Good morning, Layla.

[Layla Fadell]

So if all of these tariffs do go into effect, what is that going to mean for businesses and shoppers in the US and around the world?

[Scott Horsley]

It's likely going to mean both higher prices and slower economic growth. We've seen a lot of forecasters warn that this could tip the United States into recession. Certainly other countries that rely on exporting to the US Are looking at a big economic slowdown. That's why markets have nosedived all around the world in recent days and why investors are so desperate for any sign that maybe there's an off ramp here. Now, Trump did have that phone call yesterday with Japan's prime minister. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, says her side is willing to make a deal. But as things stand right now, products from the EU are going to be slapped with a 20% tariff tomorrow, Japanese goods are facing a 24% tariff, and imports from China could be looking at tariffs of over 100%.

[Layla Fadell]

And the President called on the Federal Reserve to cushion the fallout by lowering interest rates. How likely is that?

[Scott Horsley]

If we do fall into recession and see a spike in unemployment, the Fed will probably have to lower interest rates. But that's not where we are right now. In fact, the jobs report we got last week showed a stronger labor market than many forecasters had expected. And of course, we're still not out of the woods on inflation. Prices are climbing faster than most people would like, and these high tariffs could push prices even higher. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned he and his colleagues could end up caught in a tug of war between higher unemployment and higher inflation.

[Jasmine Garz]

That's difficult for a central bank because higher unemployment would call for speeding up the economy and higher inflation would call for slowing it down.

[Scott Horsley]

Right now, the Fed is not inclined to cut interest rates and speed the economy up. It's more likely to keep rates elevated to avoid rekindling inflation. But if we do start to see a lot of layoffs as these tariffs kick in, then that balancing act could change.

[Layla Fadell]

Could there be some economic benefits of the trade war if it brings other countries to the negotiating table?

[Scott Horsley]

Yeah, we'll have to wait and see. There is some truth to the president's complaint about other countries making it hard for the US to tap into their markets, although in many cases, the tariffs that Trump is levying in response exaggerate the scale of those trade barriers. Supporters say the president is merely employing hardball negotiating tactics. But critics have a different view. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, for example, describes Trump's tactics here as predatory, especially when tariffs are used to bully some of America's closest allies.

[Jasmine Garz]

I think this is a moment with all the threats in the world, when alliances are very important and when we engage in the kind of threatening behavior we have engaged in, we make things much more dangerous in an already dangerous world.

[Scott Horsley]

Summers told me recently that he had been disappointed there was not more vocal pushback from businesses and political leaders unhappy with the president's approach. A lot of people have been cowed by Donald Trump. We have started to hear some of that pushback this week from people like JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and hedge fund manager Bill Ackman. And if stock prices fall a lot further or if other prices start to climb because of these tariffs, more people may feel empowered to speak out against this trade policy. We've also seen a handful of lawmakers in the House and Senate who've taken steps to reclaim congressional authority over trade policy, which Congress had delegated to the president. Trump has said he'll veto any such legislation, though, so it would take a sizable majority on Capitol Hill to overcome that.

[Layla Fadell]

NPR's Scott Horsley. Thank you, Scott.

[Scott Horsley]

You're welcome.

[Layla Fadell]

The Supreme Court has ruled the Trump administration can continue with deportations under a wartime power, at least for now.

[Amy Martinez]

It threw out a lower court's ruling to temporarily stop the deportations under the Alien Enemies Act. President Trump invoked it last month, arguing that Venezuelan gang members in the US Constitute a, quote, invasion. For the men deported say the use of this act at a time of peace is illegal. They and family members of the men deported also say many of those being deported have no criminal history in the US or their country of origin.

[Layla Fadell]

Joining us now to break this all down is NPR immigration correspondent Jasmine Garz. Good morning.

[Carly Strange]

Good morning.

[Layla Fadell]

So, Jasmine, explain this decision. Is the Supreme Court ruling on the legality of the Trump administration using this act?

[Carly Strange]

So the court's conservative majority didn't rule on the constitutionality of using the Alien Enemy act to send migrants to a prison in El Salvador. Instead, the justices issued a narrow procedural ruling saying that the migrants lawyers had filed their lawsuit in the wrong court. When the Trump administration invoked this act, the Alien Enemies Act, a rarely used wartime power, the ACLU challenged it, saying it's not legal. It denies people the right to fight the allegations in court.

[Layla Fadell]

So what does this mean for the administration's immigration crackdown?

[Carly Strange]

So the Supreme Court backed the Trump administration. In other words, it gave it the green light to continue using the act in order to rapidly deport alleged gang members. But it also made clear that officials must give migrants adequate notice that they're being removed under the Alien Enemies act so that they have time to challenge it.

[Layla Fadell]

And how is the decision being received?

[Carly Strange]

The Trump administration is celebrating this as a landmark victory. Attorney General Pam Bondi posted on X that this was a victory and they will continue implementing the act. Immigration advocates I spoke to are all very concerned. I mean, the act is designed to move the deportation process so rapidly, it's questionable how much of a chance detainees can actually have to defend themselves. And that's especially concerning given how, at this point, it's been well documented that not all of the men being deported under these gang allegations actually have ties to gangs. There's been allegations of people just being picked up because they have a random tattoo of a soccer club.

[Layla Fadell]

Okay, So a lot of concern around due process there. And there was another legal win for the Trump administration yesterday at the Supreme Court related to the wrongful deportation of a Maryland dad who was sent to this prison in El Salvador. Tell us about that.

[Carly Strange]

Right. You're talking about Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia. He's lived in Maryland for over 10 years.

[Layla Fadell]

Years.

[Carly Strange]

He had a form of legal protection that protected him from deportation. But last month, he was detained and sent to El Salvador. And the government says his deportation was, quote, an administrative error. The Trump administration does contend he's a gang member. A federal judge said the government has presented no credible evidence that he was ever in a gang. In fact, he has no criminal record in any country. And a judge ordered the Justice Department to bring Abrego Garcia back to the U.S. now, this went all the way up to the Supreme Court. Chief Justice Roberts temporarily blocked the order to return Abedego Garcia while the full court considers what to do next.

[Layla Fadell]

NPR's Jasmine Garce. Thank you, Jasmine.

[Carly Strange]

Thank you.

[Layla Fadell]

And that's up first for Tuesday, April 8th.

[Amy Martinez]

I'm Layla Falden and Ame Martinez how about giving Consider this from NPR a listen? We hear it up first, give you the three big stories of the day. Or consider this colleagues take a different approach. They dive into a single news story and what it means to you in less than 15 minutes. Listen now on the NPR app or wherever you get those podcasts.

[Layla Fadell]

Today's episode of up first was edited by Roberta Rampton, Rafael Nahm, Andrea deleon, Lisa Thompson, and Janaya Williams. It was produced by Ziad Buch, Nia Dumas and Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Nisha Heineck, and our technical director is Carly Strange. Join us again tomorrow.

[Roberta Rampton]

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