Ukraine Ceasefire Talks, Stock Market Slide, Columbia University Arrest Latest

Summary

Up First from NPR – March 11, 2025

Hosts: Leila Fadel, Steve Inskeep, Michel Martin, A. Martinez, Ayesha Rascoe, Scott Simon

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Ukraine Ceasefire Talks: Negotiations Under Strain

Overview: Ukraine is engaged in critical ceasefire negotiations, not directly with Russia, but with its long-standing ally, the United States. This round of talks gains urgency as the Trump administration has recently paused military aid and intelligence support to Ukraine, raising concerns about Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against ongoing Russian aggression.

Key Discussions:

• Negotiation Dynamics: The U.S.-led discussions are taking place in Saudi Arabia, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio heading the U.S. delegation. Ukraine is represented by its chief of staff, Andrei Yadmak, and the foreign and defense ministers.

• Ukrainian Concessions: Ukraine has proposed a partial ceasefire focusing on aerial attacks in the Black Sea. Additionally, Rubio has indicated that the U.S. expects Ukraine to make concessions, such as relinquishing territories occupied by Russian forces. As Ukrainian military commander and lawmaker Roman Costenko emphasized, “Ukraine has no choice but to work with the Trump administration because Ukraine will struggle to defend itself without US Support” [03:22].

• Trust Issues: Costenko expressed skepticism regarding Russia’s commitment to any tentative agreements, citing past violations in Chechnya and Georgia. He stated, “Ukrainians do not trust Russia to honor any truces” [05:44].

• U.S. Interests: Ukrainian representatives are urging the U.S. to maintain strong support, arguing that Ukrainian defeat would equate to a direct defeat for American interests. As Ivana Klimpush Sensada of Ukraine’s parliament put it, “Is it in the interest of the United States to look weak? ... it’s about make America weak” [06:14].

Notable Quotes:

• Steve Inskeep: “President Trump spoke with reporters over the weekend, and he said of Ukrainians, 'I want them to want peace,' although it is not clear at all what more the president wants than they have offered” [04:10].

• Roman Costenko: “We have to manage or we will die. It’s not even a choice” [03:52].

Insights: The negotiations underscore the delicate balance Ukraine must maintain between seeking necessary support and navigating U.S. political dynamics. The possibility of territorial concessions remains a contentious issue, reflecting Ukraine's desperation to secure lasting peace amidst strained alliances.

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Stock Market Slide: Tariffs and Recession Fears

Overview: The U.S. stock markets experienced their worst day of the year, triggered by President Trump’s fluctuating tariff policies and public remarks suggesting the possibility of a recession. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by nearly 9 points, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also declining sharply.

Key Discussions:

• Tariff Implementation: Trump’s imposition of a new 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico came into effect last week. Initially providing reprieves to automakers and specific countries, the administration signaled that these tariffs might remain long-term, despite economic repercussions.

• Market Reaction: The inconsistency in tariff policies led to investor uncertainty and volatility. Maria Aspen, NPR’s financial correspondent, noted that “Trump’s new 25% taxes on imports from Canada and Mexico… showed they might be more than just a negotiating tactic” [07:05].

• Recession Concerns: In an interview aired on FOX News, Trump hinted at a possible recession, stating, “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big” [07:54]. Although Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick countered, asserting “there’s no chance of a recession” [08:05], Wall Street appeared more aligned with Trump’s cautious outlook, contributing to market downturn fears.

• Economic Impact: Rising tariffs are expected to increase consumer prices across various sectors, from automobiles to groceries. Companies like Target and Best Buy have already warned of potential price hikes, exacerbating inflation concerns. Additionally, businesses face heightened uncertainty, leading to cautious forecasts—Delta Airlines, for instance, has cut its outlook due to decreased consumer and corporate confidence [09:25].

Notable Quotes:

• Maria Aspen: “Trump didn’t rule out the possibility of a recession... Wall street seemed to be listening to Trump, not Letnick” [07:50].

• Roman Costenko: “Businesses don’t like uncertainty” [09:25].

Insights: The interplay between tariff policies and market stability highlights the broader economic tensions under the Trump administration. While tariffs aim to bolster American industries, the resultant consumer price increases and market unpredictability pose significant risks to sustained economic growth.

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Columbia University Arrest: Legal and Political Ramifications

Overview: Mahmoud Khalil, a lawful permanent resident and recent Columbia University graduate, was arrested during campus protests and faced imminent deportation. A federal judge in New York has ordered the government to halt his deportation, citing procedural concerns and the potential infringement of his First Amendment rights.

Key Discussions:

• Arrest Details: Khalil was apprehended in the lobby of his university housing and subsequently detained in Louisiana. His detention is based on allegations that he supported groups deemed terrorist organizations by the U.S. administration, violating anti-Semitism bans [10:56].

• Legal Challenges: Khalil’s attorneys have filed a habeas corpus petition, challenging both his arrest and the conditions of his detention. They argue that his transfer to Louisiana impedes his access to legal counsel and family support, essential for a fair legal process.

• Administration’s Stance: President Trump has leveraged Khalil’s case to justify broader crackdowns on dissent, labeling it the first of many arrests targeting “pro-terrorist, anti-Semitic, anti-American activity.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated the administration’s intent to revoke visas and green cards of Hamas supporters [12:06].

• Impact on Higher Education: The Department of Education, under Linda McMahon, has notified 60 universities that they risk federal funding if they fail to adequately address anti-Semitism on their campuses. This directive follows the administration’s cancellation of nearly $400 million in funding for Columbia University, accusing it of fostering a hostile environment for Jewish students [13:12].

Notable Quotes:

• Rylan Barton: “Khalil's attorneys say the Trump administration is using him as an example to stifle lawful dissent which violates the First Amendment” [12:06].

• Khalil’s Wife: “He’s a loving husband and the future father of our baby and someone who’s always willing to stand up for the oppressed” [11:57].

Insights: Khalil’s case exemplifies the Trump administration’s aggressive stance on immigration and campus activism, intertwining legal actions with broader political objectives. The targeted investigations into anti-Semitism on campuses raise concerns about academic freedom and the potential chilling effect on student activism, highlighting deepening tensions between educational institutions and federal authorities.

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Conclusion

This episode of Up First from NPR delves into the intricate dynamics of international negotiations involving Ukraine, the volatile state of the U.S. stock markets influenced by tariff policies, and the contentious legal battles surrounding Mahmoud Khalil's deportation. Through comprehensive reporting and insightful analysis, NPR provides listeners with a nuanced understanding of these pressing national and global issues.

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Notable Contributors:

• Ian Martinez
• Roman Costenko
• Joanna Kakissis
• Rylan Barton
• Maria Aspen

Production Team: Edited by Kevin Drew, Rafael Naab, Ryland Barton, Alice Wolfley, and Mohamed El Bardisi. Produced by Ziad Buch, Nia Dumas, and Christopher Thomas. Engineering support by Nisha Hynes. Technical Director Stacey Abbott.

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This summary is crafted to provide an in-depth overview of the key discussions and insights presented in the March 11, 2025, episode of NPR's Up First. For the full episode and more detailed reporting, listeners are encouraged to subscribe and support their local NPR stations.

Transcript

[Ian Martinez]

Ukraine tries another round of negotiations today, not with Russia, but with its ally, the United States, which paused its aid.

[Steve Inskeep]

So what does the US Want from Ukraine? What are the Ukrainians able to offer?

[Ian Martinez]

I'm Ian Martinez. That's Steve Inskeep. And this is up first from NPR News. The stock markets had their worst day of the year. The fear is that the president's repeated tariff changes may cause recession.

[Steve Inskeep]

There is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big.

[Ian Martinez]

Why did the president's response make investors even more concerned?

[Steve Inskeep]

Also, the Department of Education, not yet abolished, is telling 60 universities they may face penalties. The department describes last year's protests over Gaza as, quote, relentless anti Semitic eruptions. Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day. This message comes from NPR sponsor Saatva, maker of quality handcrafted mattresses. Founder and CEO Ron Rutson shares one of their core values.

[Ian Martinez]

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[Steve Inskeep]

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[Joanna Kakisis]

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[Steve Inskeep]

Ukraine struck Russia today. It was the biggest ever drone attack on Moscow, according to Russian officials. The drone strikes hit a warehouse, killed and injured people, and briefly shut down the airports. It was a sign that Ukraine still has some striking power, even though it has lost some vital American support. Today, U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators meet to discuss that and much more.

[Ian Martinez]

This meeting's happening in Saudi Arabia. And the talks do come with some urgency attached to them. The Trump administration is withholding both military aid and intelligence from a country that up until now has been a US Ally. President Trump has also talked of sanctions against Russia, but unlike with Ukraine, he has yet to announce a penalty.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR Ukraine correspondent Joanna Kakisis is covering all this from Kyiv. Hi there, Joanna.

[Roman Costenko]

Good morning.

[Steve Inskeep]

Let's just remember the backdrop here. Ukrainians and Americans met at the White House. Last time they met, it was Volodymyr Zelensky who argued with Trump and Vance, President Trump and Vice President Vance, and they then berated him. So what does Ukraine hope for this time?

[Roman Costenko]

Well, Steve, Ukrainians really hope the White House will change its tone after this meeting and its actions because the past couple of weeks have really unsettled everyone I've spoken to here, including Roman Costenko. He's a military commander and lawmaker, and he said Ukraine has no choice but to work with the Trump administration because Ukraine will struggle to defend itself without US Support. He's saying we have no way out. We have to manage or we will die. It's not even a choice.

[Steve Inskeep]

Okay, so they have no choice but to come back to the table. Here they are. President Trump spoke with reporters over the weekend, and he said of Ukrainians, quote, I want them to want peace, although it is not clear at all what more the president wants than they have offered. So what's on the agenda for this meeting?

[Roman Costenko]

Well, Steve, no final decisions are set to be made today. Zelensky's in Saudi Arabia on a state visit, but he said he isn't planning to attend this meeting. And Trump won't be there either. The Ukrainian team includes Zelensky's chief of staff, Andrei Yadmak, as well as Ukraine's foreign and defense ministers. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is leading the U.S. delegation. Rubio did say on Monday that he wants Ukraine to show that it's serious about ending the war. He talked about Ukraine making concessions, like giving up land taken by Russia. Now, Ukraine has said repeatedly that it's always been serious about ending this war and it wants a peace deal with security guarantees so Russia does not rearm and attack again.

[Steve Inskeep]

Also, just a reminder at this point, we're only talking about concessions by Ukraine. So what sort of concessions might the Ukrainians be willing to make?

[Roman Costenko]

Well, Zelensky has already proposed a partial ceasefire covering aerial attacks in the Black Sea. Not sure if Russia would agree to this, but Rubio seemed to welcome the move, and public opinion polls show between 20 and 30% of Ukrainians would consider giving up occupied territory in return for peace. However. However, Kostenko told us, look, Ukrainians do not trust Russia to honor any truces. He said Russia also invaded Chechnya and Georgia and violated ceasefires there. The same thing happened to Ukraine after 2014 when Russia first attacked and eight years later, Russia launched the full scale invasion. So Kostenko is saying, I'm a person who has experienced dozens of truces and all were violated by Russia. So everyone needs to understand that when negotiating this truce.

[Steve Inskeep]

I guess the Ukrainians want to persuade the Trump administration that a peace deal isn't going to last if it's too easy on Russia. Is that it?

[Roman Costenko]

Well, yeah. Everyone, every Ukrainian I've spoken to is trying to convince the Trump administration that it's in the U.S. s interest to support Ukraine. Here's Ivana Klimpush Sensada. She's a member of Ukraine's parliament. Is it in the interest of the United States to look weak? Because I think Ukrainian defeat would be a direct defeat of the United States States.

[Steve Inskeep]

It's not about make America great again.

[Roman Costenko]

It's about make America weak. And she said, look, it's not clear this argument will work, but President Trump does not like looking weak.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR's Joanna Kakissis, always strong. Thanks so much.

[Roman Costenko]

You're welcome.

[Steve Inskeep]

President Trump's tariffs and his remarks about a recession led to the worst day for the stock markets this year.

[Ian Martinez]

Now The Dow tracks 30 major U.S. companies, it fell 2%, almost 9. The broader Nasdaq and S&P 500 are also sharply down. Now, these things always move up and down, but the markets overall have given back all their gains since last November's election and then some.

[Steve Inskeep]

And NPR financial correspondent Maria Aspen is following all of this. Good morning.

[Maria Aspen]

Good morning.

[Steve Inskeep]

Okay, so why was there such a big drop yesterday?

[Maria Aspen]

Well, President Trump has done and said a lot of different things about tariffs in the past week, and investors have been feeling the whiplash. Just to recap, Steve, Trump's new 25% taxes on imports from Canada and Mexico went into effect last week. Then he started giving out reprieves, first to automakers, then to Mexico, then to Canada. But the fact that Trump actually let the tariffs go into effect was a big deal and showed they might be more than just a negotiating tactic. And he's continuing to talk about them happening long term, despite all the warnings about how much they could hurt the US Economy. This all really hit home. On Sunday. FOX News anchor Maria Bartiromo aired an interview with Trump. And this was the bit that got everyone worried.

[Roman Costenko]

Are you expecting a recession this year?

[Steve Inskeep]

I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America. That's a big thing.

[Maria Aspen]

So Trump didn't rule out the possibility of a recession. Now, it's important to note that his commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, did. He told NBC News in a different interview that there's, quote, no chance of a recession. But yesterday, Wall street seemed to be listening to Trump, not Letnick.

[Steve Inskeep]

I guess we should just state the reality. There's always a chance of a recession. You would hope it would be in the future, but you don't know. I'm also thinking about the, the narrative that you lay out there, Maria, and it's not solely the threat of Trump's, but also the unpredictability. They're on, they're off, they're sideways. You just don't know. So how concerned should investors be?

[Maria Aspen]

Well, one of the big concerns over tariffs is that they could really hike the prices consumers pay for everything from cars to groceries. That'll contribute to inflation and hurt the wider economy. And we've seen companies including Target and Best Buy warn that, yeah, tariffs are going to lead to higher prices. So that's a huge consideration for consumers and for consumer facing businesses. And then as you point out, Steve, all of the back and forth with tariff policy has created a lot of swings in the stock market. And that volatility makes it hard to play plan for both consumers and investors. I talked about this last week with Anna Tavis. She's a management professor at NYU where she talks to executives across corporate America.

[Roman Costenko]

Businesses don't like uncertainty.

[Maria Aspen]

And now we're starting to see that uncertainty creeping across our economy. For example, yesterday Delta Airlines cut its forecast, citing reduced consumer and corporate confidence and economic uncertainty.

[Steve Inskeep]

I noticed that some stocks are doing worse than others. The tech heavy NASDAQ had its worst day in years. Is something else going on in the economy we should worry about?

[Maria Aspen]

So tech companies like Apple and Nvidia are some of the hottest stocks, so they're also the most expensive. And some of their losses may have just been investors realizing we're spending too much for what we're getting. But Trump's comments over the weekend really seem to signal a shift in how he thinks about the market. He used to really rely on the market's performance as a kind of proxy approval rating, and now he seems to be signaling that he's more focused on tariffs, even if the market is unhappy and even if they cause more immediate economic pain.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR's Maria Aspen, thanks for your insights. Really appreciate it.

[Maria Aspen]

Thank you.

[Steve Inskeep]

Some other news now. A federal judge in New York ordered the government not to deport a college protest leader who was arrested by immigration officers over the weekend.

[Ian Martinez]

Mahmoud Khalil is a lawful permanent resident of the United States. A recent graduate of Columbia University, he was sent to a detention center in Louisiana to await deportation after his arrest at his university housing on Saturday.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR's Rylan Barton has been following the story and joins us now. Good morning.

[Rylan Barton]

Good morning.

[Steve Inskeep]

I'm just getting my brain around the idea that he was taken out of New York and taken all the way to Louisiana. So what else going on here?

[Rylan Barton]

Right. So Khalil's attorneys filed a habeas corpus petition in federal court in New York. They're challenging his arrest and we now know there will be a hearing on that on Wednesday. As you said, he's still in detention in Louisiana. His lawyers are trying to get him back to New York. They say that his transfer down there undermines his ability to access legal counsel and his family. President Trump wrote on social media that Khalil's arrest was the first arrest of many to come. He said there are students at Columbia and other universities engaged in, quote, pro terrorist, anti Semitic, anti American activity. Khalil's attorneys say the Trump administration is using him as an example to stifle lawful dissent which violates the First Amendment. Khalil's wife, who's pregnant, also issued a statement asking for help to bring him back home. She described him as a loving husband and the future father of their baby and someone who's always willing to stand up for the oppressed.

[Steve Inskeep]

Since you brought up the First Amendment, what does the law say about how that applies specifically to a green card holder and how does all that match up with the facts of this case?

[Rylan Barton]

So green card holders have many of the same protections that US Citizens have, but they can be deported for certain reasons, committing crimes, not updating immigration officials on their whereabouts. For example, the administration says that since Khalil was one of the student leaders active in those protests opposing Israel's war with Hamas and Gaza. He violated the administration's ban on anti Semitism and supported a group considered to be a terrorist organization by the US and that's grounds for deportation to them. Khalil's attorney says immigration officials arrested him in the lobby of his university owned apartment, initially telling him that his student visa had been canceled, but he's not on a visa. He's a lawful permanent resident, a green card holder, and they eventually told him that his lawful permanent residency had been revoked. Trump officials have made several statements about this over the week. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on social media that the administration would revoke the visas or green cards of Hamas supporters so that they can be deported.

[Steve Inskeep]

How does this fit with the larger policies of the administration? The U.S. education Department I know is telling dozens of universities they're under investigation for anti Semitism, as the administration sees it.

[Rylan Barton]

Right. The department's new secretary, Linda McMahon, told 60 colleges and universities they could lose funding depending on the outcome, outcome of investigations they've launched into anti Semitism on their campuses. The letter also this letter they sent out to them also warned that they could lose federal funding if they don't do more to combat anti Semitism. This list includes a wide range of Ivy League schools like Yale State schools like Arizona State, small liberal arts colleges like Middlebury College in Vermont. And it comes after the administration canceled almost $400 million in federal funding for Columbia University, accusing it of allowing persistent harassment of Jewish students.

[Steve Inskeep]

NPR's Rylan Barton, thanks so much.

[Rylan Barton]

Thank you.

[Steve Inskeep]

And that's up first for this Tuesday, March 11th. I'm Steve Inskeep and Amy Martinez.

[Ian Martinez]

There is an easy way to stay connected to news and podcasts from the NPR Network, the NPR app. You can hear community coverage from your local station, stories from around the world, and podcast suggestions based on what you like. So download the NPR app in that App store.

[Steve Inskeep]

Today's up first was edited by Kevin Drew, Rafael Naab Ryland Barton, Alice Wolfley and Mohamed El Bardisi. It was produced by Ziad Buch, Nia Dumas and Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Nisha Hynes. And our technical director is Stacey Abbott. Join us tomorrow.

[Joanna Kakisis]

This message comes from Bombas. Nearly 30% of marathoners end their race blistered. Bombus running socks are strategically cushioned to help say bye to blisters. Run to bombus.com NPR and use code NPR for 20% off your first purchase. Support for NPR and the following message come from Indeed. You just realized your business needed to hire someone yesterday. Speed up your hiring right now with Indeed. Claim your $75 sponsored job credit to get your jobs more visibility@ Indeed.com NPR terms and conditions apply.