Who Will Win at the Oscars: A Deep Dive into Predictions and Controversies
Released on March 2, 2025, NPR's Up First features Aisha Roscoe exploring the highly anticipated Academy Awards in this engaging episode of "The Sunday Story." Hosted by Roscoe, along with insights from contributors Aisha Harris, Stephen Thompson, Glenn Weldon, and Linda Holmes from NPR's Pop Culture Happy Hour, the discussion navigates through nominations, predictions, and the surrounding controversies shaping this year's Oscars.
Introduction to the Oscar Landscape
Aisha Roscoe sets the stage by highlighting the diverse range of films nominated this year. From horror to historical drama, the Academy has recognized a broad spectrum of genres:
“Hollywood's biggest stars gather for the Academy Awards, the annual celebration of all things movies... the horror genre getting some love this year.”
— Aisha Roscoe [00:00]
Notable films include The Substance, a horror movie about an age-reversing drug with five nominations, Conclave, a visually stunning film about the papal succession, and Wicked, a prequel to The Wizard of Oz boasting ten nominations.
Best Picture Predictions
The conversation delves into the contenders for Best Picture, with a particular focus on both blockbuster and indie films:
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Blockbusters: Wicked starring Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo, and Dune Part 2 with Timotheé Chalamet reprising his role as Paul Atreides.
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Indie Gems: Conclave featuring Ralph Fiennes, Nickel Boys, and I’m Still Here.
Linda Holmes and Stephen Thompson express their confidence in The Brutalist, a traditional historical drama led by Adrien Brody, predicting it as a frontrunner despite the blockbuster buzz.
“I think the Brutalist will win. It is kind of the most traditional Oscars y movie remaining.”
— Linda Holmes [10:46]
Stephen Thompson echoes this sentiment, emphasizing the movie’s epic scope as quintessential Oscar material.
“It's a great man, historical epic... what could be more Oscars than that?”
— Stephen Thompson [11:16]
Conversely, Glenn Weldon introduces Honora as a scrappy contender that could leverage ranked-choice voting to its advantage.
“I think this is a real chance for a scrappy little movie like Honora to take it home.”
— Glenn Weldon [12:04]
Aisha Harris adds another layer by supporting Anora, highlighting its unique blend of genres and the momentum from winning the Producers Guild of America awards.
“I think it is the correct choice... it just feels like a movie that's of the moment.”
— Aisha Harris [12:20]
Controversies Impacting the Race
A significant portion of the discussion addresses the controversies surrounding Amelia Perez, particularly the resurfacing of racist and Islamophobic tweets by actress Carla Sofia Gascon.
“Emilia Perez led the Oscars race this year with 13 nominations. But I'm actually curious if you all think that these controversies have impacted this film's chance of taking home Best Picture.”
— Aisha Harris [08:24]
Linda Holmes suggests that these controversies may dampen the film's prospects, shifting the balance in favor of more traditionally acclaimed movies like The Brutalist.
“I think that these controversies are going to affect Amelia Perez... I think the brutalist will win.”
— Linda Holmes [09:46]
Stephen Thompson concurs, noting that while Amelia Perez has passionate supporters, the backlash could hinder its overall ranking in the voting process.
“There are going to be a lot of people who rank it 10th... and I'm not even an Oscar voter.”
— Stephen Thompson [11:50]
Acting Categories: Best Actress and Best Actor
Best Actress Predictions
The Best Actress category features a diverse lineup:
- Cynthia Erivo for Wicked
- Fernanda Torres for I’m Still Here
- Mikey Madison for Honora
- Carla Sofia Gascon for Emilia Perez
- Demi Moore for The Substance (frontrunner)
Demi Moore is widely regarded as the frontrunner due to her transformative role and longstanding industry respect.
“Demi Moore for The Substance... she tends to have exactly the kind of story that often does well at the Oscars.”
— Linda Holmes [19:56]
However, Stephen Thompson and Linda Holmes advocate for other nominees. Thompson highlights Mikey Madison's charismatic performance, while Holmes champions Cynthia Erivo for her compelling portrayal in Wicked.
“I picked Cynthia Erivo. I have no regrets. None at all.”
— Linda Holmes [23:46]
Best Actor Predictions
The Best Actor category includes:
- Colman Domingo for Sing Sing
- Ralph Fiennes for Conclave
- Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice
- Adrien Brody for The Brutalist
- Timotheé Chalamet for Bob To
While Adrien Brody is a traditional favorite, a strong consensus emerges in favor of Colman Domingo due to his powerful performance and the film’s impactful narrative.
“I think he should win... he's genuinely one of the best actors in the world.”
— Linda Holmes [32:36]
Glenn Weldon and Stephen Thompson further solidify Domingo's position, praising his ability to elevate the film's quality.
“Colman Domingo rules and is king forever.”
— Linda Holmes [32:36]
Final Thoughts and Conclusions
As the discussion wraps up, the panel acknowledges the unpredictability of the Oscars, especially without the influence of upcoming Screen Actor Guild Awards. However, the preference leans towards endorsing performances and films that offer emotional depth and innovation over traditional or blockbuster appeal.
“We are just out here being brave. That's all.”
— Glenn Weldon [18:18]
The consensus underscores a desire to honor exceptional talent and storytelling, regardless of genre or pre-existing popularity. The panel expresses anticipation and excitement for the upcoming ceremony, highlighting the blend of traditional favorites and emerging contenders that make this year's Oscars particularly intriguing.
Quotes and Attributions:
- Aisha Roscoe introduces the episode and sets the context for the Oscars discussion.
- Linda Holmes and Stephen Thompson consistently advocate for The Brutalist and Colman Domingo as deserving winners.
- Glenn Weldon supports Honora and later aligns with Colman Domingo for Best Actor.
- Aisha Harris balances predictions between established favorites and underdog nominees.
This comprehensive summary captures the essence of NPR's Up First episode on Oscar predictions, offering insights into the panel's perspectives and the factors influencing their choices.