Who Will Win at the Oscars

Summary

Who Will Win at the Oscars: A Deep Dive into Predictions and Controversies

Released on March 2, 2025, NPR's Up First features Aisha Roscoe exploring the highly anticipated Academy Awards in this engaging episode of "The Sunday Story." Hosted by Roscoe, along with insights from contributors Aisha Harris, Stephen Thompson, Glenn Weldon, and Linda Holmes from NPR's Pop Culture Happy Hour, the discussion navigates through nominations, predictions, and the surrounding controversies shaping this year's Oscars.

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Introduction to the Oscar Landscape

Aisha Roscoe sets the stage by highlighting the diverse range of films nominated this year. From horror to historical drama, the Academy has recognized a broad spectrum of genres:

“Hollywood's biggest stars gather for the Academy Awards, the annual celebration of all things movies... the horror genre getting some love this year.”
— Aisha Roscoe [00:00]

Notable films include The Substance, a horror movie about an age-reversing drug with five nominations, Conclave, a visually stunning film about the papal succession, and Wicked, a prequel to The Wizard of Oz boasting ten nominations.

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Best Picture Predictions

The conversation delves into the contenders for Best Picture, with a particular focus on both blockbuster and indie films:

• Blockbusters: Wicked starring Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo, and Dune Part 2 with Timotheé Chalamet reprising his role as Paul Atreides.

• Indie Gems: Conclave featuring Ralph Fiennes, Nickel Boys, and I’m Still Here.

Linda Holmes and Stephen Thompson express their confidence in The Brutalist, a traditional historical drama led by Adrien Brody, predicting it as a frontrunner despite the blockbuster buzz.

“I think the Brutalist will win. It is kind of the most traditional Oscars y movie remaining.”
— Linda Holmes [10:46]

Stephen Thompson echoes this sentiment, emphasizing the movie’s epic scope as quintessential Oscar material.

“It's a great man, historical epic... what could be more Oscars than that?”
— Stephen Thompson [11:16]

Conversely, Glenn Weldon introduces Honora as a scrappy contender that could leverage ranked-choice voting to its advantage.

“I think this is a real chance for a scrappy little movie like Honora to take it home.”
— Glenn Weldon [12:04]

Aisha Harris adds another layer by supporting Anora, highlighting its unique blend of genres and the momentum from winning the Producers Guild of America awards.

“I think it is the correct choice... it just feels like a movie that's of the moment.”
— Aisha Harris [12:20]

Controversies Impacting the Race

A significant portion of the discussion addresses the controversies surrounding Amelia Perez, particularly the resurfacing of racist and Islamophobic tweets by actress Carla Sofia Gascon.

“Emilia Perez led the Oscars race this year with 13 nominations. But I'm actually curious if you all think that these controversies have impacted this film's chance of taking home Best Picture.”
— Aisha Harris [08:24]

Linda Holmes suggests that these controversies may dampen the film's prospects, shifting the balance in favor of more traditionally acclaimed movies like The Brutalist.

“I think that these controversies are going to affect Amelia Perez... I think the brutalist will win.”
— Linda Holmes [09:46]

Stephen Thompson concurs, noting that while Amelia Perez has passionate supporters, the backlash could hinder its overall ranking in the voting process.

“There are going to be a lot of people who rank it 10th... and I'm not even an Oscar voter.”
— Stephen Thompson [11:50]

Acting Categories: Best Actress and Best Actor

Best Actress Predictions

The Best Actress category features a diverse lineup:

• Cynthia Erivo for Wicked
• Fernanda Torres for I’m Still Here
• Mikey Madison for Honora
• Carla Sofia Gascon for Emilia Perez
• Demi Moore for The Substance (frontrunner)

Demi Moore is widely regarded as the frontrunner due to her transformative role and longstanding industry respect.

“Demi Moore for The Substance... she tends to have exactly the kind of story that often does well at the Oscars.”
— Linda Holmes [19:56]

However, Stephen Thompson and Linda Holmes advocate for other nominees. Thompson highlights Mikey Madison's charismatic performance, while Holmes champions Cynthia Erivo for her compelling portrayal in Wicked.

“I picked Cynthia Erivo. I have no regrets. None at all.”
— Linda Holmes [23:46]

Best Actor Predictions

The Best Actor category includes:

• Colman Domingo for Sing Sing
• Ralph Fiennes for Conclave
• Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice
• Adrien Brody for The Brutalist
• Timotheé Chalamet for Bob To

While Adrien Brody is a traditional favorite, a strong consensus emerges in favor of Colman Domingo due to his powerful performance and the film’s impactful narrative.

“I think he should win... he's genuinely one of the best actors in the world.”
— Linda Holmes [32:36]

Glenn Weldon and Stephen Thompson further solidify Domingo's position, praising his ability to elevate the film's quality.

“Colman Domingo rules and is king forever.”
— Linda Holmes [32:36]

Final Thoughts and Conclusions

As the discussion wraps up, the panel acknowledges the unpredictability of the Oscars, especially without the influence of upcoming Screen Actor Guild Awards. However, the preference leans towards endorsing performances and films that offer emotional depth and innovation over traditional or blockbuster appeal.

“We are just out here being brave. That's all.”
— Glenn Weldon [18:18]

The consensus underscores a desire to honor exceptional talent and storytelling, regardless of genre or pre-existing popularity. The panel expresses anticipation and excitement for the upcoming ceremony, highlighting the blend of traditional favorites and emerging contenders that make this year's Oscars particularly intriguing.

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Quotes and Attributions:

• Aisha Roscoe introduces the episode and sets the context for the Oscars discussion.
• Linda Holmes and Stephen Thompson consistently advocate for The Brutalist and Colman Domingo as deserving winners.
• Glenn Weldon supports Honora and later aligns with Colman Domingo for Best Actor.
• Aisha Harris balances predictions between established favorites and underdog nominees.

This comprehensive summary captures the essence of NPR's Up First episode on Oscar predictions, offering insights into the panel's perspectives and the factors influencing their choices.

Transcript

[Aisha Roscoe]

Aisha I'm Aisha Roscoe and this is the Sunday Story from Up first, where we go beyond the news of the day to bring you one big story. Tonight, Hollywood's biggest stars gather for the Academy Awards, the annual celebration of all things movies. If you've been listening to the Sunday Story for a while, you know I love horror movies, so I was happy to see the horror genre getting some love this year. The film, the Substance was about the terrifying outcome of an age reversing drug and it's been nominated in five categories including best picture and best actress. And I also saw Conclave. It's a visually stunning film. Acting is amazing. It's about the selection of a new pope. I really love that one. And of course I had to watch Wicked with my kids.

[Aisha Harris]

Wow.

[Aisha Roscoe]

We had a lot of fun. If you haven't seen it, you don't have to look to the western sky that's in the movie. It's kind of a prequel to the wizard of Oz and it's got a whopping 10 nominations this year. Beyond that, I haven't been able to see many of the movies this year because I'm always working. But our friends over at Pop Culture Happy Hour have seen them all. It's their job and we're going to hear their predictions coming up right after the break.

[Stephen Thompson]

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[Aisha Roscoe]

Story from Up First. And today we're sharing an excerpt of an episode from our friends at Pop Culture Happy Hour. It features all of their predictions of who will be the big winners at tonight's ceremony.

[Aisha Harris]

A misunderstood witch, an unknowable singer, songwriter, a dejected TV personality, and the dean of Cardinals will all walk into the Dobie Theater on Sunday night because it's that time of year again. Yes, it's the Oscars.

[Stephen Thompson]

It's an interesting crop of best picture, director and acting nominees, and we're talking about who we think will win and who we think should take home those shiny gold statues. I'm Stephen Thompson.

[Aisha Harris]

And I'm Aisha Harris. And on this episode of NPR's Pop Culture Happy Hour, we're offering up a guide to this year's Oscars. Joining us today are our fellow Pop Culture Happy Hour hosts, Linda Holmes. Hey, Linda.

[Linda Holmes]

Hello.

[Aisha Harris]

And Glenn Weldon. Hey, Glenn.

[Glenn Weldon]

Hey, Aisha.

[Aisha Harris]

It's great to be here with all of you to talk about the Oscars for our big Oscar show. We are going to obviously spend some time on Best Picture first, since that's the big ticket award of the night. And a couple big blockbusters earned nominations. Steven, do you want to set those up for us?

[Stephen Thompson]

Sure. We've got Wicked. Set before the events of the wizard of Oz, this musical is the origin story of the Wicked Witch of the West. It stars Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo. What a good clip.

[Glenn Weldon]

Perfect clip.

[Aisha Harris]

I knew that was gonna be the moment that we chose.

[Stephen Thompson]

Never let it be said that that movie does not end on a strong note. The other big, big, big blockbuster, you've Got Dune Part 2. Timothee Chalamet returns as Paul Atreides, who must now contend with a group called the Harkonnens who have seized control of the planet.

[Glenn Weldon]

May thy knife chip and shatter.

[Aisha Harris]

I was definitely thankful for those recaps for Dune Part one before I watched this one.

[Stephen Thompson]

Did you try to read the Wikipedia page about Dune Part one before going into Dune Part two? Because I was more lost than I was going in.

[Glenn Weldon]

Try the books if you think that's daunting. Try the books.

[Aisha Harris]

Yes, yes. Well, okay. There's also a handful of smaller but no less ambitious movies that were nominated. And to some degree, I think this crop we all really liked and admired quite a few of these. So Linda can you give us the rundown on these films?

[Linda Holmes]

Absolutely. Conclave is a fun and twisty look at the secretive process by which a Pope is replaced. Ralph Fiennes plays the cardinal leading the process. If you want to defeat Tedesco.

[Aisha Harris]

This is a conclave, Aldo.

[Stephen Thompson]

It's not a war.

[Linda Holmes]

It is a war. And world's most smooth segue in the substance. Demi Moore plays an aerobics instructor who wants to stay in the spotlight. So she turns to a strange black market drug.

[Stephen Thompson]

Remember, there is no she.

[Glenn Weldon]

And you, you are one. Respect the balance and you won't have any more inconveniences.

[Linda Holmes]

Yeah, exactly. Like picking a Pope. It's basically the same thing.

[Glenn Weldon]

It's pretty much the same thing.

[Linda Holmes]

Nickel Boys is the story of two black boys who form an unshakable bond at a segregated reform school in the Jim Crow South. There are four ways out of nickel.

[Aisha Harris]

Serve your time or age out court. Martin Aveen, if you believe in miracles, you could die, they could kill you, you could run. Those are all very different, but like I said, very ambitious in their own ways. So it's nice to see them in the mix here, for sure. And then, of course, we've got the more traditional best picture nominees here. Glenn, tell us about this group.

[Glenn Weldon]

Yeah, we've got one of those biopics, a complete unknown. Timothee Chalamet playing a young Bob Dylan. The movie follows his rise in the music.

[Aisha Harris]

How many roads must a man walk down before you call him a man?

[Glenn Weldon]

6. 6 is the answer. We've got the brutalist Adrian Brody plays a fictional Jewish Hungarian architect who relocates to the United States after World War II. I would like to draw something and present it to you. You'd like to win the commission?

[Aisha Harris]

Yeah. And, you know, for the past several years, we've seen international features nominated in the Best Picture category. And so this year, I'm Still Here actually earned a nomination. It's set in 1970s Brazil when it was under a military dictatorship. And it tells the story of a mother dealing with the disappearance of her politician husband. And finally, we've got two movies that have been making lots of waves.

[Glenn Weldon]

Waves. We're calling them waves now.

[Aisha Harris]

Okay, we'll talk a little bit more about that in a second. But they've been on the scene since way back at Cannes. The Cannes Film Festival last spring. Steven, what have we got here?

[Stephen Thompson]

Well, we've got Anora, Sean Baker's movie about an enterprising sex worker who marries the immature son of Russian oligarchs.

[Aisha Harris]

So you want to get married to me, Vanya? You want me to be your little wifey?

[Linda Holmes]

Yeah.

[Aisha Harris]

Guess this accent. Yes.

[Stephen Thompson]

And then there's Emilia Perez. It is about a trans Mexican cartel boss who disappears from the criminal underworld and eventually reunites with her family after creating a new life as a woman.

[Aisha Harris]

Changing the body changes society.

[Stephen Thompson]

Changing society changes the soul.

[Aisha Harris]

Changing the soul changes society. Changing society changes it all.

[Glenn Weldon]

Oofta.

[Aisha Harris]

Okay, okay. Well, before we truly dig into who we think will and should win here, it's important for us to sort of briefly touch on the controversies that have arisen during award season. There's the big one. Very soon after the nominations were announced in January, some old racist and Islamophobic tweets made by Emilia Perez star Carla Sofia Gascon resurfaced by journalist Sarah Haughe. Now, in those tweets, the actress used slurs and other disparaging language to refer to a wide range of demographics and people, including Muslims, Chinese people, and George Floyd. Gascogne apologized via an official Netflix statement, but continued to discuss it in interviews. And she suggested there was some kind of larger conspiracy at work against her. Now, to a lesser degree, the Amelia Perez team has also faced some flak for using AI cloning to widen Gascon's singing range. Amelia Perez led the Oscars race this year with 13 nominations. But I'm actually curious if you all think that these controversies have impacted this film's chance of taking home Best Picture. Lynda, let's start with you and what you think will win.

[Linda Holmes]

Well, I do think that these controversies are going to affect Amelia Perez, and that's partly because I think there are a lot of people who had a lot of misgivings about this movie anyway, and these controversies have sort of given them an opportunity to say, okay, cool, I'm gonna rule that one out then. I think if people were more excited about the movie, it probably would have less of an. I do think that is likely to have an effect. And that left me predicting that the Brutalist would win best Picture. It is kind of the most traditional Oscars y movie remaining. It is a heavy historical drama. It has a really strong lead performance from Adrien Brody, who's kind of a very beloved, awardsy type of actor. You know, the director, Brady Courbet, has been widely praised for making it on a relatively small budget compared to its sweep. And despite the fact that they're have been a couple of questions raised about use of AI, I think those things are going to fall away. And I think the brutalist will win.

[Aisha Harris]

Just to back up a little bit, in case you haven't heard about the AI controversy around the Brutalists leads, Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones were reportedly, their voices were fed into some AI software. And director Brady Courbet said in a statement that only their Hungarian dialogue was enhanced by the AI. But also the film's editor said that generative AI was used as inspiration for some of the architectural drawings that are done by Adrien Brody's character. So, Steven, what are your thoughts on what will win?

[Stephen Thompson]

I feel almost word for word, the same way Linda does. I feel that the Brutalist is gonna wind up reaping a lot of the benefit of some of the blowback against Amelia Pettis. It's a great man, historical epic running more than three and a half hours in length. What could be more Oscars than that?

[Aisha Harris]

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, one thing I will note is that it's also important to remember that the Oscars are ultimately decided through ranked choice voting. And so it doesn't have to be everyone's favorite film. It just has to be enough people's, maybe even second favorite film.

[Stephen Thompson]

And I think that is maybe what hurts Emilia Pettis the most. There may be a passionate contingent putting it first, but there are going to be a lot of people who rank it 10th, not just me, and I'm not even an Oscar voter.

[Glenn Weldon]

Yeah, but see, I think the ranked choice voting is gonna help Honora. I think a lot of people feel very favorably disposed toward that film. If they don't rank it first, they're gonna rank it second or third. I think the buzz around Honora has been growing. I think this is a real chance for a scrappy little movie like Honora to take it home.

[Aisha Harris]

Yeah. And that's where you and I align, Glen. I also think Anora is going to win. It won the Producers Guild of America awards, and since 2010, every winner of the PGA Award has also won Best Picture, with three exceptions. And then there was also one year where there was a tie between gravity and 12 Years a Slave. 12 Years a Slave wound up winning the Oscars. So, like, I feel like the odds are kind of in Anora's favor, but we shall see. So we all said who we think will win, but, like, who do we think should win? For me, I think Anora should win. I think it is, to me, the correct choice, in part because it subverts expectations around genre. You think it's gonna be some sort of, like, sort of crime movie, but it's also a family comedy, and A screwball comedy and a drama. And it just feels like a movie that's of the moment in a way that most of the other films in this pack do not land. For me, it normalizes this depiction of sex work. It also has this very matter of fact take on capitalism that I don't think is either subtle, but it's not preachy either. It's just very resonant.

[Stephen Thompson]

You've just got me piggybacking off people who share my opin.

[Aisha Harris]

I agree with you.

[Stephen Thompson]

Now, there are several other films in this field that I really dearly love, and I could make a case for Conclave. I could strangely make a case for the substance in spite of some plot issues that I had with it. A movie that has really stuck with me and I suspect will continue to stick with me. But Honora, to me is made with such verve, and for me, it just felt like such a victory lap for Shawn Baker, who's been making great movies for a long time now without necessarily a ton of major awards consideration. For me, this is a film that I. I really, really dug. And it's not. Again, I'm gonna keep harping on this point. It's not a typical Oscar movie.

[Linda Holmes]

I don't know.

[Aisha Harris]

Well, Linda, I know you were not a huge fan of this, and we don't have to get into why. And also, like, I love that we have different opinions on this show, so I am curious as to what you think should win.

[Linda Holmes]

I ultimately went with Nickel Boys. It's the one that I thought was the most emotionally rich and satisfying. It's also the one that I think was the most innovative in terms of filmmaking. People have talked a lot about the first person point of view camera work here from the director, Romel Ross. I think that's really interesting. I think there are some very interesting decisions about what to give away and what to withhold. I think he got some really wonderful work out of the actors in this film. If we're going to have a big party where we honor people making movies, I want it to be something like this. You know, for me, everything else, there was some reason not to pick it with, whether it was, you know, controversy or, you know, for me, the Enora thing of sex workers who sort of turn out to just want to be hugged to me is not that interesting and actually is a pretty familiar trope from film. This is what I picked. I picked Nickel Boys, as did I.

[Glenn Weldon]

I thought I was gonna be out here all alone, but I join you, Linda. I think I'd like to see the academy rewarding any innovation, any tweaking of the format. And it's not just that it's told from, you know, through the character's eyes, it's the use of that could have easily been just a distracting gimmick, right? But it's used so smartly to serve the story and to serve the emotions of the story. And not for nothing, this film has a closing montage that's like five, ten minutes long that also could have been confusing, disorienting. But the director, Romel Ross, is going back to his experimental film roots. That montage took you by the hand. It guided you along in such a confident and assured way. You knew exactly what was happening. Which is yet another reason the fact that we didn't get a nomination for directing or sitting cinematography or editing.

[Stephen Thompson]

Cinematography.

[Aisha Harris]

Bizarre.

[Stephen Thompson]

How did this not get nominated for cinematography?

[Glenn Weldon]

You know, what are we awarding here? Outstanding achievement. Of these 10 films, this is the outstanding achievement.

[Aisha Harris]

I would be so happy to see this one. It has stayed with me months later. And I think it's just such a beautiful film that I need to rewatch. I definitely need to rewatch. And I think it rewards rewatch. So. And we should also note that Nickel Boys is actually released by Amazon MGM Studios, and Amazon supports NPR and pays to distribute some of our content.

[Aisha Roscoe]

You're listening to the Sunday Story. More Oscar predictions when we come back.

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[Aisha Roscoe]

We're back with the Sunday Story from Up first as we hear more Oscar predictions from the team over at Pop Culture Happy Hour.

[Aisha Harris]

So another note I wanna make is that we are going to be making these next predictions before the Screen Actor Guild Awards have come out at the time of this recording. So ordinarily, as I did with the best picture, I would have kind of, like, dug into my bag and looked, oh, who won SAG Awards? And that would have helped inform my opinions here.

[Glenn Weldon]

We're just out here being brave. That's all.

[Aisha Harris]

We're being brave. We're out here naked, just cheats to the wind. We're doing that.

[Stephen Thompson]

Would we ever make an accurate prediction from this field?

[Aisha Harris]

I have no ide. Yeah. So let's move on to the acting categories, and let's start with the lead actress category. Steven, who is nominated here?

[Stephen Thompson]

Cynthia Erivo for Wicked. Erivo plays Elphaba in this origin story about the Wicked Witch of the West.

[Aisha Harris]

Sorry, we just gotta. Every time. Every time.

[Stephen Thompson]

Fernanda Torres for I'm Still Here. Torres plays a mother and activist whose life is upturned when her politician husband goes missing during the military dictatorship in Brazil. Mikey Madison for Honora. Madison plays a New York sex worker who marries the son of Russian oligarchs. Carla Sophia Gascon for Emilia Perez. Gascon plays the titular Emilia Perez, a trans cartel leader who leaves the criminal underworld to begin a new life. She's the first openly trans actress or actor of any gender nominated in an acting category. And then we've got the presumed frontrunner. Aisha. I don't think you need the SAG Awards to predict this one. Demi Moore for the substance. Moore plays a TV aerobics instructor who turns to a mysterious black market drug to stay young.

[Aisha Harris]

I need you. Cause I hate myself. You gotta get ready.

[Stephen Thompson]

It's our big night.

[Aisha Harris]

Come on.

[Stephen Thompson]

They're gonna love you so much.

[Aisha Harris]

All right. And I'm pretty sure that we all think Demi Moore is going to walk away with this award. Linda, why do you think she'll win?

[Linda Holmes]

Well, I mean, some of it is just forecasting based on, you know, awards already won and sort of critical reaction already received. But also, I think she has exactly the kind of story that often does well at the Oscars. Demi Moore has been around for a really long time. She talked about this at the Golden Globes. She was originally kind of pigeonholed as a, like, a pop movie actress, as she put it, a popcorn actress. And I think she's been really good in a number of different things for a long time, but not the kinds of things that necessarily got her awards recognition. You know, first of all, people tend to think it's very brave when you go through some sort of body transformation and do something that looks ugly and gross. Especially if you are a woman who came up as a kind of conventionally beautiful woman. So that tends to weigh in her favor. I also think she's just one of those people who's worked with a gazillion people over the course of her career who all seem to have a reasonable amount of affection for her. She doesn't seem to be somebody who has, for some reason, made enemies in her long time in Hollywood. And sometimes that really helps just to have been around forever acting with a ton of people, working in a ton of projects. I think that's gonna do it. I think she will win.

[Aisha Harris]

Yeah.

[Stephen Thompson]

If you're looking for any kind of dark horse in this race, in terms of somebody who has the potential to win, I wouldn't 100% rule out Fernanda Torres, who gives a pretty magnificent performance in I'm Still Here, who really carries that film and who is a very. Again, a veteran actress who has done a ton of great work. I don't think she will win against Demi Moore, but this is definitely one of the most heralded performances of the year and one that I could see slipping through well.

[Linda Holmes]

And I do want to add, you know, it's easy now to look at this and be like, oh, yeah, it's going to be Demi Moore, obviously. Ho hum. But like, go back to reading this script, right?

[Glenn Weldon]

Absolutely.

[Linda Holmes]

Go back to the moment when this script shows up and you look at it and it's like. I mean, now it feels like she's just. Demi Moore's gonna cakewalk to the best actress Oscar for this horror movie in which she winds up as a blob of tissue by the end of the.

[Glenn Weldon]

I mean, that's how Katharine Hepburn did it.

[Linda Holmes]

The unlikelihood of getting recognized for horror. The unlikelihood of getting recognized for something as strange as this movie is this is not something you would take thinking like, I'm gonna cakewalk to an Oscar for playing this part.

[Aisha Harris]

Now, Glenn, who do you think should win the. I think I have a sense of who you're thinking here.

[Glenn Weldon]

Yeah, it's. To me, it's will and should. I mean, for all the reasons we've talked about, plus it's the only shot this very weird movie has at a major award, one of the big five. So, yeah, let's give it.

[Linda Holmes]

I absolutely think she's deserving and I will be thrilled if she wins. However, in this category, I decided to go with Cynthia Erivo, and I'll tell you why. I get that Wicked has sort of fallen out of most of the major Oscar conversations at this point in its life. And I think that that's a shame because I don't think it's a perfect movie. I think a lot of its charm comes from the source material and the performances. But to me, the last 15 to 20 minutes of that film, which include obviously Defying Gravity, which obviously became immediately a meme and a TikTok sound, and, you know, there were things of like a dog on a broomstick going up into the sky with, it's me, it's me. I think that sequence is good enough that that is what a movie star who is a good actor is supposed to do. And when you put on top of it the fact that I think it is a hell of a performance of a really good song. Like, what am I asking for? Right? Like, what am I asking people for? If not this, what am I rewarding? If not this, I picked Cynthia Erivo. I have no regrets. None at all.

[Aisha Harris]

I love it. I love that.

[Glenn Weldon]

Solid pick.

[Aisha Harris]

Steven, who do you think should win?

[Stephen Thompson]

I went with Mikey Madison for Honora. I think the movie falls apart if she doesn't give a great performance. I think she manages to bring just huge amounts of charisma and energy. This performance could so easily have dipped into caricature. And maybe Linda thinks it did dip into caricature. I don't know. But I really found this to be just like a very vibrant and committed performance from somebody I can't wait to see in more movies.

[Linda Holmes]

No, I think she's wonderful. I think she is absolutely wonderful. I think the charisma that you talk about is 100% real. My issue is with the ending. I think the ending sells out the character and sells out what the movie was doing at the beginning. But it's only the ending that irritated me.

[Stephen Thompson]

I get that.

[Aisha Harris]

Yeah, I get that. I mean, Steven, you and I are aligned. I also would really love to see Mikey Madison take this home. I've been a huge fan of hers ever since she was in Better Things, the Great Pamela Adlon show as one of her daughters. I've seen some criticisms of the film as being, like, a movie where we don't learn much about the Mikey Madison character and that she's just this one note, you know, sex worker. And I disagree with that. Hard. I think that just because we don't learn every single detail about her backstory, that doesn't mean that she's not a fully realized character. I think that there are just these so Many great moments and interactions that hint at both her social class, her status in life. And I think the ending actually is one of the great endings. But look, we're not here to deliberate that. I'm just here to say that I loved Mikey Madison. And, look, I'd be happy if Cynthia Erivo won. I'd also be happy if Demi Moore won.

[Linda Holmes]

I probably had my Honora expectations raised too high. That's probably part of what happened.

[Aisha Harris]

So that's also possible. All right, well, let's move on to the nominations for actor in a leading role. Glenn, why don't you set that up for us?

[Stephen Thompson]

Sure.

[Glenn Weldon]

We've got Colman Domingo for Sing Sing. Domingo plays an incarcerated man who finds purpose by acting in a theater troup. We've got Ralph Fiennes for Conclave. Fiennes plays the cardinal who is managing the process of finding a new pope. We've got Sebastian Stan for the Apprentice. Stan plays a young Donald Trump establishing his career in real estate and his relationship with the attorney Roy Cohn. And then we have the two presumed frontrunners. Adrien Brody, as we've talked about for the brutalist. Brody plays a visionary Hungarian architect who moves to America to rebuild his life after World War II. And Timothee Chalamet for a complete unknown. He plays Bob To.

[Aisha Harris]

All right, so I'm gonna go first here, because I guess I'm the only one who is convinced that Timothee is probably gonna pull off Arami Malek here. I was looking at sort of this entire crop of nominees, and unlike with the best actress category, there's not really any that are, like, transformative in the traditional way. Yes.

[Stephen Thompson]

Like in the Gary Oldman as Winston.

[Aisha Harris]

Churchill or the whale. Brendan Fraser, like, that kind of thing. DiCapri on the revenant. Like, that's not happening here. And so I think for me, we can never underestimate the enthusiasm of the Academy's boomer and raucous membership, as well as its tendency to love actors who play real people. Again, Rami Malek and Bohemian Rhapsody. Will Smith and King Richard, Gary Oldman, Cillian Murphy, Daniel Day Lewis, Colin Firth, on and on and on. Like, over the last 15, 20 years, a lot of the winners in this category have been playing real people. And I don't know if the Dylan cosplay on SNL hurt or helped shall we's chances. I think maybe it's possible they just kind of neutralized them. I feel as though Timothee has a very good shot, and I would not be Surprised to see him wind up with the Oscar.

[Stephen Thompson]

I think one thing I would add to that is that he has been campaigning his rear end off for months and months, and that does come into play. I mean, you talked about SNL where he appeared on SNL as the host and the musical guest performing Dylan songs. Like, he is really trying to win this award. And that does factor in.

[Glenn Weldon]

But for him to win, he would have to escape the gravity well of Adrien Brody in the Brutalist, which is the uber traditional choice. You watch that movie and his performance is a series of Oscar clips. You keep waiting for them to cut away to him sitting in the audience and people clapping around him. It's impressive, but it's the default choice.

[Linda Holmes]

Listen, I like Little Timmy. I think if Little Timmy is gonna win an osc this year for either of the two snotty little megalomaniacs that he played in movies this year, it's obviously it will be this one.

[Aisha Harris]

Sunsets and seagulls, Smell of buttercups. Your songs are like an oil painting at the dentist's office.

[Linda Holmes]

You're kind of a bomb. I think he plays a pretty good snotty megalomaniac, but I do think that the movie is not good enough. And I think the movie itself has too many weaknesses. But I agree with Glenn that the Brody performance is more, you know, traditionally Oscars y. I think the academy loves him. That's the direction I think they're gonna go.

[Aisha Harris]

I'm the only one here. I'm standing alone here on my club Chalamet boat.

[Stephen Thompson]

Look, I think Timothee Chalamet is going to win an Oscar.

[Aisha Harris]

Yes.

[Stephen Thompson]

At some point. I'm not sure if it's for this film. I'm a little higher on this film than Linda is. I really love, really, all three of the central performances in this film for me. I mean, Adrien Brody, it is a Oscar winning performance. He's terrific in it. Even if I think that film kind of careened off the rails in the second half. His performance is so solid at the center of it that it never crashes into the ditch.

[Linda Holmes]

Stephen, we are gonna have to have a beer sometime and discuss how you are anti traditional Oscar movies and pro a complete unknown.

[Glenn Weldon]

Thank you. I have been trying to make these things connect for ever since I found out how much he likes this very boring movie.

[Linda Holmes]

But we're gonna have a beer. It's not for today.

[Glenn Weldon]

Not for today.

[Linda Holmes]

We're gonna have a beer and have it.

[Stephen Thompson]

There's not as much contradiction there as you think. Mystified I think Brody will and should. But I do want to put in a word for that Colman Domingo performance, which I think is magnificent in Sing Sing, a movie I would have loved to have seen in the best picture field. I think it's a terrific performance and a very, very good movie.

[Glenn Weldon]

Well, Steven, you're happy because I pick Colman Domingo for Should Win. I think he makes that film a hell of a lot more compelling than it could have been on paper. After all, it is, let's face it, a feel good movie about the carceral state. I just get itchy whenever there's any kind of narrative, any. Any kind of marginalized group. And the narrative is. Well, at least they have Shakespeare. You know, I just. That rubs me the wrong way.

[Stephen Thompson]

But I don't think that's what that movie does.

[Aisha Harris]

No, not at all.

[Glenn Weldon]

He is the reason that a film that could have been about this very tidy kind of neoliberal uplift has any real grit in the gears at all. He's the thing that makes it work.

[Linda Holmes]

I just want to point out they're not staging Hamlet. They're staging their own weirdo show that has like a little tiny smidgen.

[Aisha Harris]

There's mummies, there's time traveling.

[Glenn Weldon]

Yeah, you're missing Hamlet is.

[Aisha Harris]

Yes.

[Glenn Weldon]

It's not that they're staging Hamlet.

[Stephen Thompson]

Hamlet is just a tiny part of that bonkers production.

[Linda Holmes]

It also has Freddy Krueger.

[Aisha Harris]

Yeah. Yes.

[Linda Holmes]

I also chose Colman Domingo. I think this is a spectacular performance. First of all, I think he's possibly our most charismatic and reliable actor working right now.

[Stephen Thompson]

For me, I would not disagree with that.

[Linda Holmes]

He is perhaps the actor most able to elevate literally anything. But I don't actually think he has to here because I think this is a wonderful film. And I will also say we talk a lot about sort of of what I would consider to be like, side factors that affect not wanting to vote for things. Whether it's AI or it's controversy or something like that. I will freely admit there are some side factors here that make me root for this film, including a lot of the actors in it are, in fact formerly incarcerated people who were part of this program, some of whom worked on the story. They also had a really interesting. And I encourage you to read about this. I won't explain the whole thing, but a really interesting compensation scheme in which everybody sort of got paid the same to work on the film, no matter who they were. So I love this movie. It should have been nominated for best picture. Irate. That it wasn't. And Colman Domingo rules and is king forever.

[Aisha Harris]

So, yeah, look, in a just world, Clarence Macklin, who is one of the other performers in this movie and a formerly incarcerated person who contributed to the storytelling of this film, would have also been up here in this category because he, to me, gives just as good of a performance. But I am glad that Colman Domingo is here and I am with you both, Glenn and Linda, that I think he should win. So it sounds like Glenn, Linda and I are for Colman Domingo.

[Glenn Weldon]

Say it. We're right.

[Stephen Thompson]

You've actually fully talked me into this. I was on the fence.

[Linda Holmes]

Unanimous pro. Colman Domingo bullying for the win.

[Stephen Thompson]

No. You know what? If you're going to bully me in any direction, bull me. In the direction of Colman Domingo, who's genuinely one of the best actors in the world.

[Aisha Harris]

A late stage change in the numbers. Four for Coleman Dom deathbed conversion. Yes. That brings us to the end of this big Oscars extravaganza show. Glenn Weldon, Stephen Thompson and Linda Holmes, thanks so much for being here. We all owe each other beers at this point. We'll make it happen.

[Stephen Thompson]

Absolutely. Thank you, Aisha.

[Glenn Weldon]

Thank you.

[Linda Holmes]

Beers and fights. Thank you, friend.

[Aisha Roscoe]

If you'd like to hear more discussion about this year's Oscars, check. Check out the full episode on the Pop culture happy hour podcast, available wherever you get your podcast. This episode was produced by Liz Metzger and Andrew Mambo. It was edited by Jessica Reedy and Jenny Schmidt. The Sunday Story team includes Justine Yan and Liana Simstrom. Irene Noguchi is our executive producer. Up first. We'll be back tomorrow with all the news you need to start your week. Until then, have a great rest of your weekend.

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