Wisconsin Supreme Court Race, Florida's Special Elections, Trump's Trade War

Summary

Up First from NPR – April 1, 2025: Comprehensive Episode Summary

Hosted by NPR’s E. Martinez, Michelle Martin, and contributions from Anya Van Wagtindonk and Scott Horsley, this episode of “Up First” delves into three major stories shaping the political and economic landscape: the record-breaking Wisconsin Supreme Court race, pivotal special elections in Florida, and the ongoing ramifications of President Trump’s trade policies.

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Wisconsin Supreme Court Race: A Battle of Billions

Overview of the Race

The episode opens with Michelle Martin highlighting the unprecedented financial stakes of the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. “A state supreme court race in Wisconsin is the most expensive judicial race in American history,” she states [00:03]. This monumental expenditure underscores the significant national attention the race has garnered.

Key Players and Spending

Elon Musk emerges as a central figure in this contest, backing conservative candidate Brad Schimmel. “The biggest and most significant spender has been Elon Musk,” Martinez explains [02:37]. Musk’s involvement is not just financial; he has directly influenced voter engagement by distributing million-dollar checks to registered voters, a move bordering on illegal campaign payments [04:43].

Candidate Susan Crawford, supported by Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker and philanthropist George Soros, represents the liberal faction. “Crawford is very clearly the liberal candidate and Schimmel is very clearly the conservative candidate,” Musk clarifies [03:13]. The race has surpassed the $100 million mark, almost double the previous record two years ago, reflecting intense partisan investment similar to U.S. Senate campaigns.

Issues at Stake

The implications of this race extend beyond judicial appointments. Musk identifies key legal battles awaiting the new court justice, including:

• Abortion Law: “There’s a case to determine whether abortion is legal,” Musk notes [05:07].
• Labor Law and Collective Bargaining Rights: “There’s a major case involving labor law,” he adds [05:07].
• Voting and Election Laws: Historically pivotal, the Wisconsin Supreme Court has influenced electoral outcomes, such as nearly overturning Joe Biden’s 2020 victory in the state [05:07].

Anya Van Wagtindonk from Wisconsin Public Radio emphasizes the court’s critical role in one of America’s most fluctuating swing states, making this race a national barometer of political shifts [05:50].

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Florida’s Special Elections: Democrats Aim to Flip Congressional Seats

Overview of the Elections

Transitioning to Florida, NPR’s Greg Allen reports that Democrats are eyeing the opportunity to capture one or two Republican-held congressional seats in special elections [06:03]. These elections are particularly significant as they follow the high-profile endorsements and strategic maneuvers characteristic of President Trump’s administration.

Candidates and Campaigns

In Florida’s 1st District, Jimmy Petronas, the state’s chief financial officer, seeks the Republican nomination with Trump’s endorsement. His Democratic opponent, Gay Vallomont, who previously lost to Matt Gaetz by over 30 points, focuses on critiquing Trump’s VA cuts [07:10]. Vallomont has successfully raised over $6 million, significantly outpacing Petronas’s fundraising efforts.

Meanwhile, in Florida’s 6th District, Republican State Senator Randy Fine, also endorsed by Trump, faces Democrat Josh Wheal, a schoolteacher who has amassed approximately $10 million for his campaign [07:10]. Fine’s early support from Trump, especially noted during the GOP presidential nomination challenges, positions him as a formidable candidate despite internal party tensions [08:02].

Democratic Prospects and Fundraising

Greg Allen elaborates on the Democrats’ optimism, bolstered by substantial financial backing and strategic endorsements. “The Democratic candidates have raised far more money than the Republicans,” Martinez points out [06:12]. This financial edge, coupled with recent Democratic successes in Pennsylvania special elections, where they flipped notably Republican seats, fuels the belief that similar outcomes could emerge in Florida [08:57].

Josh Wheal comments on the competitive nature of these races, especially in Florida’s 6th District, where recent polls show Wheal trailing Fine by only three to four points, rendering the outcome uncertain within the margin of error [08:22].

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Trump’s Trade War: Economic Turbulence and Industry Impact

Impact on Stock Market

Shifting focus to economic affairs, the episode addresses the volatile stock market, highlighting that both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ composite experienced their worst quarter in three years [09:43]. This downturn is attributed to President Trump’s intensified trade war, specifically his announcement of “Liberation Day,” signaling reciprocal tariffs on imported goods [09:51].

Historical Context of US Trade Barriers

Scott Horsley provides an analysis of tariffs, emphasizing their role as taxes that elevate prices and dampen consumer spending. “Tariffs are taxes,” he explains [10:09]. Additionally, the unpredictability of the Trump administration’s tariff policies injects significant uncertainty into business planning and economic forecasting [10:32].

Industry Examples: Sugar and Pickup Trucks

To illustrate the tangible effects of trade barriers, the episode examines historically protected industries:

• Sugar Industry: The US imposes high tariffs on imported sugar, making domestic sugar prices roughly double the global market rate. Kirk Vashaw, CEO of Spangler Candy, shares his firsthand experience, noting that “most of it is made outside the United States,” and that the high cost of sugar, rather than labor, is the primary barrier [11:26].

• Automotive Sector – Pickup Trucks: The infamous “chicken tax” from the 1960s still imposes a 25% tariff on imported pickup trucks, a factor that has funneled domestic automakers to concentrate on production of profitable SUVs and trucks over competitive sedans. Eugenio Alaman of Raymond James highlights that “industries that are protected by high trade barriers typically have less incentive to invest and innovate,” leading to stunted global competitiveness [12:59].

President Trump’s latest tariffs aim to further entrench these protectionist moats, particularly around the automotive industry, exacerbating challenges for both consumers and businesses reliant on imported materials and goods [12:59].

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Conclusion

This episode of NPR’s “Up First” provides a deep dive into the high-stakes judicial and electoral battles in Wisconsin and Florida, respectively, while also dissecting the broader economic implications of President Trump’s trade policies. By integrating expert insights, firsthand accounts, and notable quotes, the episode offers listeners a comprehensive understanding of the current political and economic climate shaping early 2025.

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For those seeking more in-depth analysis, consider tuning into NPR’s “Consider This,” which offers a focused exploration of single news stories and their personal impacts.

Transcript

[Michelle Martin]

A state supreme court race in Wisconsin is the most expensive judicial race in American history.

[E. Martinez]

They will try to stop all of the government reforms that we are we're doing. Why is this race in particular getting record spending?

[Michelle Martin]

I'm Michelle Martin. That's a Martinez. And this is up first from NPR News. Democrats think they have a shot at flipping congressional seats in two Florida special elections.

[Anya Van Wagtindonk]

He will be there whenever I need him. He wants to be there whenever we need him.

[Michelle Martin]

Will President Trump's support help or hurt the Republican candidate's chances?

[E. Martinez]

And a lesson about tariffs from one of the most protected industries in the.

[Kirk Vashaw]

US if you go on the candy aisle and look at the hard candy, you'll see most of it is made outside the United States.

[E. Martinez]

Stay sweet and stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day.

[Michelle Martin]

That's so funny. That's something my grandmother used to say.

[E. Martinez]

Stay sweet.

[Michelle Martin]

Stay sweet. And I'll be like, why?

[E. Martinez]

I want to be sour?

[Michelle Martin]

Exactly. I want to be salty.

[Sarah Levy]

Support for NPR and the following message come from Betterment, the automated investing and savings app. CEO Sarah Levy shares how Betterment utilizes tech tools powered by human advice.

[Scott Horsley]

Betterment is here to help customers build wealth their way. And we provide powerful technology and complete human support where technology can deliver ease of use and affordability. And the people behind that technology can provide advice and guidance.

[Sarah Levy]

Learn [e-mail] Investing involves risk performance not guaranteed.

[Greg Allen]

This message comes from BetterHelp. Therapy can be expensive, but at BetterHelp they believe therapy should feel accessible, not like a luxury, which is why they offer quality care at a price that makes sense and can help you with anything from anxiety to everyday stress. Your mental health is worth it, and now it's within reach. Visit betterhelp.com NPR to get 10% off your first month. That's betterhelp.com NPR this message comes from.

[Sarah Levy]

PEMCO Mutual Insurance Company. You know that moment when things take an unexpected turn and you get that sudden sinking feeling that maybe it could have been avoided? Pemco Insurance wants to help you avoid that feeling by sharing prevention tips that empower you to prevent some of life's preventable pitfalls? Because Pemco's commitment to their customers goes beyond the moment of acclaim. It's about being with their customers every day. [e-mail] Prevention Voters in Wisconsin have been.

[E. Martinez]

Casting ballots in the state's closely watched Supreme Court election.

[Michelle Martin]

It is the most expensive court race in American history. With billionaire Elon Musk and other out of State donors spending millions to decide the next justice of the court. Here's Musk over the weekend with a last minute pitch for the conservative candidate and for what he says are the stakes for President Trump's agenda.

[E. Martinez]

They will try to stop all of the government reforms that we're doing and we're getting done for you, the American people. So joining us for more is Wisconsin Public Radio's Anya Van Wagtindonk. Anya, so this state Supreme Court race is getting lots of national attention. I mean, why is it getting that much attention? And who are the candidates?

[Elon Musk]

Yeah, so this is a contest between Susan Crawford and Brad Schimmel. It's technically a nonpartisan race, but Crawford is very clearly the liberal candidate and Schimmel is very clearly the conservative candidate. So whoever wins will determine the ideological balance of the court. And that obviously really matters for state law here, of course. But this is also just a really significant election coming after President Donald Trump's win in November. So it's a bit of a test of how voters feel about his first few months in office. And that's a big reason for all of that interest and just tons of money being spent here.

[E. Martinez]

Yeah, that money, where's it coming from? I mean, the numbers are similar to what we see in U.S. senate races.

[Elon Musk]

I mean, yeah, it is just wild. The latest estimates from Wisp Politics, which is a news service here, show that this race has so far cost more than 100 million. Doll, that's almost twice what our last record setting judge race here in Wisconsin cost two years ago. It's coming from both political parties and from all across the country. It includes Illinois Governor J.B. pritzker and George Soros, who are backing Crawford. I've seen some celebrity names in the campaign finance reports also supporting her. And a few major conservative business people are backing Schimmel. But far and away, the biggest and most significant spender has been Elon Musk. Supporting Schimmel. He says it's really about congressional redistricting. He says that if Schimmel loses, Democrats could gain more seats in the U.S. house. Crawford says it's about Musk's business interests. Here's Crawford at a debate with Schimmel.

[Scott Horsley]

Elon Musk started spending that money within days of Tesla filing a lawsuit in Wisconsin.

[Josh Wheal]

Two quick questions.

[Scott Horsley]

He's trying to buy access and influence.

[Elon Musk]

You know, both candidates are making those accusations about campaign influence. In Crawford's case, she's referring to a case where Tesla is challenging Wisconsin's car dealership laws. Right now, the company isn't allowed to sell cars in Wisconsin. And Musk isn't just making traditional campaign donations. He also gave out million dollar checks to registered voters. That's really skirting the line of, you know, not out and out paying them to vote, which is illegal.

[E. Martinez]

Now, what else is at stake in this race?

[Elon Musk]

Abortion law, I think, is the most significant issue. It's there's a case to determine whether abortion is legal. It's already being heard by this court. It's unclear whether that case will have been decided before the winner of this race takes the bench. There's also a major case involving labor law and collective bargaining rights that's probably going before the state court. Again, exact timing of that is unclear. And then I'll just note that the Wisconsin Supreme Court has decided a number of voting and election related cases in the past. It came incredibly close to overturning Joe Biden's victory in the state in 2020. So there's just such electoral interest tied up in having control of the highest court in what might be America's swingiest swing state.

[E. Martinez]

The swingiest swing state.

[Michelle Martin]

That's right.

[E. Martinez]

I was trying to say that five times fast. But for Wisconsin Public Radio's Anya Van Wagtindong, thank you very much.

[Elon Musk]

Thank.

[E. Martinez]

All right. Other important races today are in Florida, where Democrats think they have a chance to pick up one or two congressional seats that have been held by Republicans.

[Michelle Martin]

In both contests, the Democratic candidates have raised far more money than the Republicans. And the central issue is once again President Trump and his agenda.

[E. Martinez]

NPR's Greg Allen has been following the races. He joins us now from Miami. So, Greg, I mean, why are these two congressional seats open now?

[Josh Wheal]

Well, you know, as you started to indicate, these two special elections in Florida are all about President Trump. He looked to the state when it came time to stock his cabinet. You know, remember, his first pick for attorney general was Congressman Matt Gaetz, who represented the first District in the Panhandle. Gates later withdrew his nomination and left Congress leaving the seat open. The other seat is in Florida's 6th district on the East Coast. It was held by Trump's now national security adviser, Mike Waltz. Trump won both of those districts in November by more than 30 points. So Republicans are favored to hold on to the seats. But a lot of things have changed since Trump started carrying out his agenda. And Democrats have contributed millions of dollars to both races. They think they're competitive in both of them.

[E. Martinez]

All right, so tell us about the candidates.

[Josh Wheal]

Well, in both districts, the Republican candidates have close ties to Trump in the Panhandle Florida's chief financial officer, Jimmy Petronas is running with Trump's endorsement. His opponent is Democrat Gay Vallomont, who lost in November BY More than 30 points to Matt Gaetz. This is the first congressional district up near Pensacola, where there's a lot of military bases and a lot of veterans. Falame's been talking about the Trump administration cuts to the VA so she's hoping that'll resonate. She's raised more than $6 million, several times what her opponent has pulled in. In the other district on Florida's East Coast, Republican State Senator Randy Fine is running also with Trump's endorsement. Back when Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was challenging Trump for the GOP presidential nomination, Fine was one of just a handful of Republicans in the state legislature who snubbed DeSantis and backed Trump. And Trump referenced that in a campaign call for a Fine last week.

[Anya Van Wagtindonk]

He was one of fourteen Florida state legislatures who endorsed me very early in my campaign for president. That's why Randy will always have a very open door to the Oval Office. He will be there whenever I need him.

[Josh Wheal]

Fine's opponent is Democrat Josh Wheal. He's a schoolteacher who's raised some $10 million. Again, that's several times what his opponent has pulled in.

[E. Martinez]

All right, so campaign cash clearly flowing there. But how real are Democrats chances of flipping seats that have been held by Republicans?

[Josh Wheal]

Well, they think they have a shot at doing it, especially in the 6th district on the East Coast. Two recent polls there show Weil is just three or four points behind Fine, which is within the margin of error. Democrats see these special elections as a place to begin rallying a party that saw big losses in November. The National Democratic Party Chair, Ken Martin, was here this weekend campaigning for both candidates. He pointed to special elections in Pennsylvania last week in which Democrats won two legislative seats that had been Republican.

[E. Martinez]

One of them helped us win back the state House majority, and another seat that hasn't been represented by a Democrat since the 1880s. It's a plus 23% Republican district, and we won that in Pennsylvania.

[Josh Wheal]

Martin says. You know, even if they come up short, though, the Democratic candidates in Florida will overperform expectations. It's clear also that Republicans, including President Trump, are worried about every congressional race and the possibility that they could lose their narrow majority in Congress. You know, that's why last week we saw Trump pull Congressman Elise Stefanik's nomination for UN ambassador. Instead of going to the UN now, she's going to be remaining in Congress.

[E. Martinez]

That's NPR's Greg Allen in Miami. Greg, thanks.

[Josh Wheal]

You're welcome. All right.

[E. Martinez]

It's been a rough few months in the stock market. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ composite just closed out their worst quarter in three years.

[Michelle Martin]

Investors are bracing for more turbulence as President Trump prepares to unveil the next phase in his trade war, what he's calling Liberation Day. Trump has said he will impose reciprocal tariffs to match the duties other countries place on American goods.

[E. Martinez]

NPR's Scott Horsley joins us now. So, Scott, why are investors so concerned about tariffs?

[Eugenio Alaman]

Well, hey, tariffs are taxes. They generally push up prices. They're a potential drag on spending, and they invite retaliation against US Exports. On top of that, you've got the unpredictable way the Trump administration has rolled out his tariff agenda on one day off, the next back on again. All that just adds the uncertainty and makes it very hard for businesses to plan.

[E. Martinez]

All right, then, how does the US Stack up against other countries when it comes to trade barriers?

[Eugenio Alaman]

Since the Second World War, the US has generally pushed to lower trade barriers, not raise them. But there have always been a few domestic industries that have enjoyed special protection, and those offer some clues about how Trump's protectionist instincts might play out in other parts of the economy. One of the most protected industries in this country is sugar. The US has high trade barriers against imported sugar. As a result, the price of sugar in this country is usually about twice what it is on the world market. Now, that might not be a big deal if you're just putting a spoonful of sugar in your coffee every morning, but it's a very big deal if you buy sugar by the truckload, like Kirk Vashaw does. He's the CEO of Spangler Candy, which makes Dum dums, bit of honey, and candy canes in Bryan, Ohio. His is one of the last hard candy manufacturers that still operates in this country.

[Kirk Vashaw]

Chicago used to be the candy capital of the United States, and it's not anymore. It's been hollowed out. If you go in the candy aisle and look at hard candy, you'll see most of it is made outside the United States. It's not the cost of the labor, it's the cost of the sugar.

[Eugenio Alaman]

So lesson one, trade barriers drive up cost. And while that's meant higher profits for US Sugar producers, it's been very expensive for all the businesses and consumers who buy sweets. In some cases, it's driven them out of the country.

[E. Martinez]

Trade barriers not only affect the bottom line, but also how businesses operate, too, Right?

[Eugenio Alaman]

Yeah. And A good example of that is the so called chicken tax. Back in the 1960s, Germany slapped a tariff on imported chickens from the the US Retaliated with attacks on imported pickup trucks. And that pickup truck tariff is still in place decades later. And the tariff is 25%, 10 times what the US had been charging on imported cars. That's why you see a lot of imported cars in the US but very few imported pickup trucks. There's a deep protectionist moat around the US Pickup market. And chief economist Eugenio Alaman of Raymond Jane says that's why domestic automakers have put so much of their focus on building pickup trucks and SUVs.

[Anya Van Wagtindonk]

It is more profitable to produce light trucks than to be competitive in sedans. Basically, the US Auto manufacturers abandoned any idea of competing in the global economy with small cars.

[Eugenio Alaman]

And so that's a second lesson from these protected industries. Industries that are protected by high trade barriers typically have less incentive to invest and innovate and compete in worldwide markets. And, you know, this week President Trump is widening that moat around pickup trucks to protect domestic autos with a 25% tariff as well.

[E. Martinez]

That's NPR's Scott Horsley. Scott, thanks.

[Eugenio Alaman]

You're welcome.

[E. Martinez]

And that's up first for Tuesday, April 1st. I'm E. Martinez.

[Michelle Martin]

And I'm Michelle Martin. Your next listen is Consider this from npr. We here at up first give you the three big stories of the day. Our Consider this colleagues take a different approach. They dive into a single news story and what it means to you. Learn about a big story of the day in less than 15 minutes. Listen now on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

[E. Martinez]

Today's episode of up first was edited by Acacia Squires, Russell Lewis, Raphael Nam, Lisa Thompson, and Alice Wolfley, was produced by Ziad Buch, Nia Dumas, and Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Nisha Hyness, and our technical director is Carly Strange. Join us again tomorrow.

[Eugenio Alaman]

Foreign.

[Greg Allen]

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[Sarah Levy]

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