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This is the Value Investor podcast with Tracy Reinek, all things value, all the time.
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Welcome back, value investors. So we're getting a sell off finally in the AI stocks. A lot of the tech names pulling back and it's quite dramatic. And I know many of you are thinking, are there any deals here? Should I be jumping in soon or maybe even already and accumulating some of these shares. I've covered AI stocks on sale on the Market Edge podcast recently, but the sell off has accelerated now, some of it being kind of pushed by what's going on in South Korea with its market there, which is more in a panic, I would say panic selling going on there. They've had a use the circuit breaker several times over the last week or so as a lot of their speculators are trying to get out with some gains on some of those big chip stocks that are there. But I'm not going to go too much into what's happening in Korea because it's definitely a topic of conversation out there. But here in the United States we are seeing quite a sell off in these similar names. Even after reporting earnings that are beats on the earnings that are raises that are still seeing the strong demand from the AI, it hasn't mattered. A lot of those are selling off. But valuations were a bit stretched on many of these names. Not all of them, but many of them. And so timeouts are good. As you know, I've always said that pullbacks are healthy, even in bull markets. They happen. But this one is pretty severe in some of these stocks where you're down 50% in a matter of days on a few of them. So as value investors, we start to think, huh, maybe there's, you know, an opportunity here and you have to have a strong stomach always on any kind of, kind of panicky sell off like this. But we have seen it before over the last three years as the AI revolution has taken off. Even last year, it's, it's easy to forget what was happening at the beginning of last year when we had the tariffs coming into place and we had liberation day looming there in April of 2025 and, and we had a big selloff in all these AI stocks in March and into April of 2025. That was a buying opportunity then and I still believe it's a buying opportunity now. Now where are we on the AI revolution? Couple of years ago when I first started talking about it, I would have put us in inning number one or number two. Even last year I would have said we were maybe in the fourth inning or so. And then this year I'm seeing us maybe in the sixth inning.
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So we are getting later in the
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game, but we're not in the very
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end of the game yet in the
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eighth or the ninth inning. That will come eventually. But right now we're still seeing the build out going on and we're only in kind of the early phases of getting data centers even built to and people even using various AI products. So the AI infrastructure stocks are the stocks that I still believe in. And I've said many times over the last couple of months that all of this money that the hyperscalers are spending, that Alphabet, Amazon Meta that they're all spending to build data centers and get these products out there, is going somewhere. Somebody is building the data center, someone is building those racks that are going in there, someone is building the power system that is going in there. All of these somebody's the beneficiary and we're seeing it in their earnings and revenue side. So I want to own where the money is going, follow the money. That's what you want to do. And eventually that money will slow down. As we know that'll be the more of the danger zone for a lot of these AI infrastructure companies because you don't see this kind of growth happening forever. But as I said, I still think
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we're in about the sixth inning or
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so, were not at the very end yet. And so I still believe there's a lot of opportunity with these companies if we can get them cheaper. And as value investors, that's what we want to do. We don't want to get them at 40 times earnings, but maybe at 30 times. And especially this kind of earnings growth. We're not even just talking low double digits, you know, a 10% or 15%. We're seeing 30, 40, 50% earnings growth with a lot of these still the third year into it.
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But that's what happens when you have
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the hyperscalers spending over a billion dollars a year on this build out. So what stocks am I talking about that have seen big sell offs? The first one is SanDisk, this one went sky high, let's just call it what it was. But I have never seen earnings like this, this kind of earnings growth by
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a company, not even Nvidia, which has
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seen massive earnings growth over the last three years and especially on a trillion dollar market cap company like Nvidia. But SanDisk has just been incredible growth year over year. And it's kind of hard to fathom it when you. So SanDisk is only $162 billion market cap. So it's not at the trillion dollar side. So this is on the memory side. There is a shortage. They're able to charge whatever they want and if you need the memory, you're buying it at whatever price they're charging. So last year in fiscal 2025, so we're in fiscal 2026 and so we're on the back end of that fiscal year. So most of this is already priced in. We're going to be reporting third quarter it looks like on August 5th. So we're going to get an update then. But they have pretty good views on what's happening for this fiscal year. And so we're expecting 6611 66.1 for fiscal 2026 but they only made 2.99 last year. So it's a gain of 2111%. This is why the stock went, you know, quote unquote parabolic earlier this year. It has chopped out and now it's on the way down. And it is, you know, it is, it is crashing down pretty quickly as everybody tries to get out their big gains. The shares were up over a thousand percent at one point in just like a year. So everybody who had those gains is like, I'm not losing this. These are the traders and they're getting out. But when you see the earnings, you know, doing something like this, is it a one hit wonder? Well next year analysts are at 192 82. So 6,611 for this fiscal year. 192 82, that's still up 191% on revenue, that's up 136% to 46 billion. Expected to make 19.5 billion this year. So very nice revenue growth. They only made 7.4 billion last fiscal year. So again they have pretty good knowledge of what is going to be happening. They're going to be reporting third quarter.
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So they're already in the fourth quarter
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of this fiscal year. So it's pretty good knowledge of what's going on.
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It's just next fiscal year that is
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on the horizon that nobody knows for sure. So because you have this incredible earnings growth, even though the shares soared, PE right now on SanDisk is just 5.7, 5.7. But the street now believes up this is a one hit wonder and it's not going to hold. And even though we have next year looking very bullish, it's still everybody's getting out, the traders are getting out and now We've had the big pullback.
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So over the year, year to date,
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SanDisk is still up 266%. So that sounds pretty good, right? But it was up much more than that, up over 700% at one point. But the last month tells more of the tale. So SanDisk now down in the last month 47%. This is the quick selloff and it's accelerating because stops are being hit by those who are up 700%. They had a stop, they're like, you know, if it gets down here, I'm getting out, I'm taking whatever gains I had and I'm out. So that's what's happening. We got to get all of these hands wiped out over the last five days. And I'm recording this on July 29, the shares are down 36%. So now we're seeing it really accelerate. And all the computer algorithm, you know, stops and trades are hitting at the same time now with all of these AI stocks. And so that's just pushing the shares down, similar to what we're seeing in South Korea. But that's even more of a panic over there. But people thinking, you know, I gotta get out, I gotta preserve some of these gains. But we don't care. We're long term value investors, investors.
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So we're going to snoop around and
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see if there's any value here. And like I said, the PE has come way down on SanDisk on both the the E rising and still continuing to rise. But also now the P declining. It is a sex number one strong buy here because the analysts keep raising estimates because of the situation with the tight market. Price to sales is still stretched at
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12.3, price to book is at 11.7. So you're not getting any of those
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very cheap right now. But if we see a continued pullback in these shares, then all of these
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fundamentals will get cheaper and I like it even more. So it is very difficult to buy a stock when it's down 36% in just five days. That's when, you know, the
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fear, obviously
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fear kicks in and people just are like, I don't want anything to do with that.
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But as value investors, we do have
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to look at the fundamentals. We do have to look at the story about what's going on at the
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company and we try to rule out
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our emotions, but that's hard. Now when a stock is soaring like it was earlier in the year, everything feels good and we're like, oh, it's fine.
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It's trading at eight times or nine
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times and it's still cheap and there's the shortage and all of that and we feel like, you know, we really nailed it on the head there. But when it sells off like this and this quickly now we begin to doubt, we doubt our analysis, we doubt that, you know, what we're doing is the correct thing. But SanDisk, the business is there and until some kind of signs show otherwise. I still like the memory guys here and I still like all the fundamentals. And they're reporting those earnings on August 5th.
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So tune in then.
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So that's SanDisk SNDK. What about its partner in crime on Micron? What's happening there? This one is another one that had the big soaring and now it too has been falling, but not quite as sharply.
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So year to date Micron is still
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up and it's up 147% over the one month period. Micron is down 26. So SanDisk down 4647. Micron down 26, still a lot, still a nice pullback. So we are still getting the stock cheaper over the last five days. It's now down about 20%. So that's a bear market. And so as I said, the, the sell off has accelerated in the last week with all of these stocks. So we are getting it on sale. How much cheaper is Micron? They are a 926 billion dollar market cap. So much bigger closing in on that trillion and probably was over a trillion when it was at its peak. Here it's all time high but forward PE of 11 on Micron, price to sales is stretched at 10.2. That's a little under Sanda disc though. Price to book is at 9.2. That's a little cheaper than SanDisk. But we still have also with Micron, the crazy growth in the earnings like nothing we've ever seen and the revenue side. So Micron also on a fiscal year, but it has just reported it's a little bit different than SanDisk. And next earnings is in September 2026. It looks like maybe third quarter in September there. So earnings expected to be up 790% this year to 7,386 from 829 and one estimate higher in the last seven days. That's why we got the number one strong buy rank with Micron as well. So one analyst is still saying no, I'm still not bullish enough. And that that accurate estimate, that most Recent one is $0.02 below the consensus. So pretty much in line with this higher consensus now. So 60 days ago they were at 59 66. Then they reported earnings and now we're at 73.86 next year looking for 157.83. Now remember these stocks are very cyclical even outside of the AI revolution. They go in these cycles and so they can appear to be very cheap at the top of the cycle. But so far what we're seeing is this year, this fiscal year doesn't look to be the top, but maybe next year will be. But next year still earnings up 113% on revenue growth of 91%. That's in the future, nobody can determine it. But still looking very strong here. It's off 20% in just the last month or was that five days? Five days. So that is a nice sharp pullback here and we are getting everything cheaper. So that's what we're all about. That's Micron Ticker M U. Okay. Another company that I own in Sachs, value investor and my own personal portfolio is Vertive. They make the racks on the inside and help with the build outs inside the data centers. And they reported just as I'm recording this on July 29th they did beat on earnings, they did miss on revenues and they talked about some troubles with the supply chain. Again these are actual real products and things are actually getting built and the racks being put into place. So it's not just all like in the dream sequence or you know, a click on an article or something like that or social media users or something. This is an actual product that they have to build. And so they are subject to tariffs and the Middle east conflict and Ukraine and Russia and whatever else is going on out there that could destruct, disrupt supply chains. And then we also have, you know, higher fuel costs. All this stuff might go to margins with a company like Vertev Ticker V as in Victor R as in Robert T. It's number two going into this earnings report but it did raise forward guidance again for this year. It is on the regular year for them and these shares were already weak going into this report and then are down on their earnings report because it just wasn't quite as good as everybody thought, even though it was good. So shares were down 6% the day before the report as all the AI stocks were selling off and they're down another 13% just today. So Vertiv is down 23% over the last five days and in the last month down 22. So most of the sell off has been happening more recent with Vertiv starting to lose its grip a little bit. But year to date, vertiv still up 34. It wasn't one of the ones like Micron or Sandisk up like Triple digits, but it has pulled back quite a bit on those bigger gains from earlier in the year. Now, what about valuations with furtive? It was way more expensive than either a micron or a Sandisk forward. Pe is still at 42, but it has a peg of 1.1.
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So the peg is pretty cheap because
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those earnings are rising. Price to sales, 9.5, so that's pretty expensive. Price to book is at 24. So how does the value investor own it? Well, we did buy it cheap back in the day in 2023 when the AI revolution was just getting started. But we now own it as a growth stack. And I still like to own some of these growth stocks. I don't have 100% pure value portfolio, but if I can get it at a cheaper valuation, I love that. And now we are off considerably off those highs. Now Vertiv, like the others, has had these pullbacks over the last three years and the biggest one was during the Liberation day sell off. So we're back to another one of these. There was also the one with Deep seek. Remember that one where everybody's like, we're doomed. You know, we've got to sell all
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these AI infrastructure stocks.
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And then everything continued on. But like I said, that was earlier in the innings. We were only in like the second or third inning back in the deep seek days and now we're in about the sixth inning. So. So keep that in mind. But I still like companies like Vertiv, you know, doing the data centers. There was nothing in this report that said things are slowing. It still talked about accelerated demand. It's still having some of the best quarters and earnings expected to be up 51% this year after 47% gain last year and then another 34% for next year. These numbers will be adjusted after this earnings report and I expect the earnings growth to actually increase because they did raise this year's guidance again. So that's vertive. It is more expensive on every valuation metric. But look to get it on sale if you're looking for a growth name on the AI side. VRT is that ticker. Okay, what else? Bloom Energy. That is one of the ones that's powering everything going on with the data centers. It too just reported earnings. Ticker is B as in Boy E. B as in Boy E. So that's easy. Bloom Energy. This was one of the red hot ones.
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I guess all of these have been
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red hot, but definitely one of the big ones on the power generation side of the story. And we don't talk about that as much, but that's going to be in focus as we move forward with the build out of the data centers. Year to date, Bloom energy still up 65% but over the last month bloom energy now down 40% in the last month. So you can see where certain price targets and things have been hit and cells have been put in place and then it just kind of accelerates. Once a lot of these targets are hit by the computer, then everybody gets out. Especially when it's been such a big performer over the last five days. It's now down 24, almost 25% and it's down 3% after its earnings which were the best quarter in its history. It was a huge beat, but the street is just selling all of these stocks now. Bloom was not cheap and did not get cheap as it soared this year. So this pullback is a nice buying opportunity again to get some growth forward. PE set 79 with Bloom, but it's, it's doing it, it's executing and that's what we want to see as a growth investor. So it's a little early. The analysts are still going to be revising estimates but that earnings beat was 100% earnings beat. They reported $0.78 versus $0.39 on the estimate. And so that just blew it out of the water. Even though these estimates have been on the rise and revenue up big as well, expected to be up 170, no, 83% this year to 3.7 billion from 2 billion. Yes, it's. That sounds very small compared to these other companies we've been talking about. Even Vertiv is bigger than that. So this is like a smaller cat play on the energy side. But they are literally powering the data centers. Earnings expected to be up 176%. They made 76 cents last year, expected to make 210. But that's going to rise as the analysts adjust these estimates now after this earnings report. So next year another 102% up to $4 and 25 cents. Because at the end it's really the power that is going to be the end of the build out cycle. So you've got to get the chips, you've got to build the data center, then you put the racks in, then you have to cool it, then you have to find a way to power the whole thing. And that's at the very end. So the demand for power is only going to continue to rise even after demand, perhaps for chips starts to slow down. The, the lag on building out the data centers and then actually powering them all is pretty large. So I still really like the power side. I've been a fan of Bloom Energy, but it got away from me as a value investor and now it's coming down. It's still still pretty pricey, though, so keep it on your watch list for sure. And if you're looking for that growth, then maybe that's a way you can get it cheaper. Price to sales is at 15, price to book is at 50. So none of these are cheap at all. So not surprised that we're seeing a big pullback here. Got a little too bullish, a little overextended there, you might say, even with this great news coming and these great earnings reports and just seeing huge demand. But trees don't grow to the sky and neither do stocks. So as value investors, keep it on your watch list. So ticker B, as in boy, E as in Edward Bloom Energy. Okay, how many have we done? 1, 2, 3, 4.
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I want to do a fifth one.
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Should we do the cooling side? I have talked about Comfort Systems many times and they already reported. So let's keep it with some companies that have already reported as they have. What is it looking like? Here it is year to date, Comfort Systems is still up 54%, but over the month it has pulled back now, but just about 19. So we're getting to that 20 level, which will trigger some more buys right as you get to these key levels. This is only in the last month, but people are already clicking in and hitting, you know, these areas where they want to sell to lock in some of their gains. Over the last five days, it's down 14.6, so we might not be hitting quite as many here. You're going to have some cells on a 10% pullback, then you're going to get a lot more on a 20% pullback. And that is what we may see with Comfort Systems. And so then we're going to see that selling kind of kick in more, which is what we've seen, you know, with some of these others now. And just FYI in video, while all of this is going on in the last five days is also down, but just 7.5%. So it is feeling the pressure as well, just not quite as much of the selling pressure. It's, you know, $5 trillion market cap or now in the 4 trillions and those professional investors aren't as apt to be selling out of Nvidia as they might be one of these other big winners that isn't as widely held. They're gonna lock in. They're not trusting it as much. Nvidia is kind of a forever hold. But Bloom Energy's new on the scene and may not be for many people, including the pros. So Comfort Systems, it always reminds me again of Mattress company. It is not a mattress company, I'm
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sorry to say these things.
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But it is on the cooling, cooling and heating. But cooling is where it's at on the data centers. They have already reported a week ago and it was another beat, it was another raise. It is a number one strong buy once again because those earnings estimates are being revised higher. Again, can't complain about any of this. Let's take a look at the detailed estimates. We are getting it cheaper here. So I do like that. So three estimates are up for the year in the last week because it did beat and raise and now we're looking at 45.48. For the year it was at 43.09. So that's considerable jump. Again. That's why we're getting the number one rank. Not only are the analysts raising, but the magnitude of the increase is pretty substantial. And the most accurate estimate, which is the one that just came in, is 4,687. So that's above the consensus of 45, 48. So they're already more bullish because the company is more bullish. The beat was big. It was 12.53 versus 1038 on the earnings beat. But that's a little under what it was doing the last couple of quarters. But still a double digit beat once again. And then the analysts are getting More bullish on 27 as comfort system sees this demand just continuing on the cooling side because those data centers are under construction and new ones are being announced all the time. Just this week, Meta Platforms announced It's building a $14 billion data center that
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is a big data center.
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14 billion near El Paso, Texas. And that is going to rival the huge one that they're building in Louisiana. So this money is going somewhere. Someone is getting the beneficiary of 14 billion on both the construction side. But eventually they're gonna have to cool it and companies like Comfort Systems are going to be in demand. So next year looking great, the estimate jumped up to 57. 27. That's another 25% earnings growth for next year. And it was at 52.93. So almost, almost five dollar jump there into 27. So perhaps they said something on the conference call where they see just like incredible demand coming next year. So the analysts are responding to that. I'm not sure because I did not listen in on this conference call. I only tuned into press releases and things like that. But Comfort System still with the strong growth now what about valuations on this one? It was very expensive as it was peaking there at new all time highs and that was around $2,000 a share. It is now that it's pulled back trading at 1537, 1,537. So I get it. It's hard to buy this one because it's so expensive you want to buy even one share, you're talking 1537, but it's still below, you know, where it was hanging out at over 2000. PE now is at 35. So it is more attractive here. But the, the E is on the rise as well and we have had that 14 pullback. So I am liking all of that, that it's getting a little more reasonable. So what do I pay for the earnings on something like this and the sales, do I pay 35 times if I'm a growth investor? That's, that's not bad. That's looking pretty good. Price to sales is at 5.5.1. So that's the most attractive price to sales out of all of these so far. So I'm getting the sales a little cheaper here on Comfort Systems price to book is still at 17, so that's stretched but it's still attractive on the growth side with some of these fundamentals here. And so I'm liking that and still executing and that's what we want to see. It hasn't missed since 2022 and these are big beats it's been putting in a row for about the last year and a half, almost two years now. So the, the stock is cheaper and not maybe as cheap as some people would like. But if we get a 20 pullback, which remains to be seen, that is a good signal there. That's a nice, nice pullback on a company like this, on earnings and sales growth that it's doing. But these timeouts were needed. Things were getting a little too frothy a couple of months ago on the big Iran war rally. Even though fundamentals are strong, it's always good to have a timeout reevaluate. And for those of us as value investors, we are able to get these much cheaper than we otherwise would have been able to get them. So a couple of these actually have the low pes. Those are Sandisk Ticker SNDK and Micron Ticker Mu, very cyclical. So they will get those low pes when everything is taken off because the earnings are on the rise. But in this case, I've never seen the cycle like this where we're seeing 2000% earnings growth, which is incredible and something really strong is going on in their cycle to see something like that. But it'll go up, it will come back down eventually. Right now it doesn't look like it will be this year or next year, but next year is in the future.
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Nobody knows.
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And so the market right now is planning that, hey, maybe this is the peak. So we're going to take our gains and get out here.
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Is it?
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We don't know. But I'm liking the setup, especially with the other AI infrastructure names like the Vertive Ticker VRT for that one. That's the racks like Bloom Energy supplying the power. Somebody's got to do it. Record quarter in second quarter.
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Ticker B is in Boy E as in Edward.
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And then someone's got to cool it so that everything is running optimal, you know, at optimum speed inside the data center and so you don't get fires. And so every data center that's built needs to be cooled. You can't use normal air conditioning. It's more of a specialty kind of system. Comfort Systems is one of the go to's and so market cap on comfort systems by the way, 57 billion. It does pay a small dividend. It's only yielding point two percent now, but it's three dollars and twenty cents. But again, the stock is trading at 15 over 1500 dollars a share. So it is a very small yield but it does have the good free cash flow and it is shareholder friendly. So you're getting some kind of dividend with that one. What about some of these other ones? Vertiv used to pay something I believe, but they too have the good free cash for the last couple of years. Yeah, they're still paying 25 cents for their dividend. It's.09% on the yield as the shares have risen. I know many of you are like why pay a dividend at all? Well, paying a dividend like this, even though it's small, gets you into and before income investors for one as well as the managers. And so if you run an income ETF or mutual fund, it qualifies because it's paying the dividend out. So it does get you into. And before more eyes, if you actually are paying a dividend and the same thing with Nvidia, it has that small dividend as well. Right. Let me see. Nvidia, yeah, that's a dollar. And it's 0.5% yield now, now that the shares have fallen back a little bit, Nvidia is paying a little bit more decent here. I I can't make fun of 0.5% on the yield, but these shares are cheaper. I talked about it on last week's episode of the Value Investor podcast. Nvidia has a low PEG and it makes it a value on a PEG ratio basis. And for those who are saying, oh, it's a bubble, well, forward pe now at 21 times on Nvidia. And just for comparison, Cisco in 1999 and into 2000 had a forward pe of 151. So we're not there. We're not there with Nvidia. This is in on the low side of its historic range over the last 20 years where it's traded in the 30s, 30s and even the 40s over the last 20 years. So Nvidia historically cheap on a PE basis. So keep an eye on all of these stocks as I know you all will. Some are still pure growth, but they are on sale as growth stocks. Others a value on some of the fundamentals, but you know, cyclicals, so be careful on some of those. But I own Vertive out of this list. I don't own any of the others. I do own some other
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AI infrastructure
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stocks in general in my portfolio that I didn't mention here. They're doing the same thing as these stocks. They are all pulling back. So it's a buying opportunity in any of these names as everybody is just basically fleeing it. And we like to buy on the panics as value investors as long as the fundamentals are still there, and they are. So get that strong stomach going and keep them at least on your watch list. Maybe have a price target on some for when to get in. My price target has already been hit on a bunch of these, including on Vertiv. But if I can get Comfort systems down to that 20% pullback, then I might be interested there. But again, keep these on your watch list and accumulate if you own some of them and maybe you'll get even a better deal in the next several days. So be sure to subscribe to get all of our podcasts here. There's a lot going on even on the value side and you don't want to miss a single episode. So get us on YouTube. We're on Zach's podcast channel. Just put in Zach's podcast. I know many of you are subscribing over there. You'll get most of our podcasts there. These are the audio podcasts. There's no video, but you can listen in on a bunch of them there, including ETF Spotlight. So don't miss a single episode there. Subscribe. Click the notification button so you're notified when one launches. You can also subscribe and get us on Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, just about anywhere you can get podcasts. We are there, but it's a good time to be a value investor when things are selling off, right? We haven't had this happen that often, so enjoy.
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Look for those deals.
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It is a buying opportunity on these well known names and great earnings and revenue outlooks on all of these. So be sure to tune in next week and I'll see you then with some more value stocks this material is
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being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold a security. Do not act or rely upon the information and advice given in this podcast without seeking the services of competent and professional legal, tax or accounting counsel. Publication and distribution of this podcast is not intended to create and the information contained herein does not constitute attorney client relationship. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment or strategy is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, company sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of Zack's investment research as a whole.