Verdict with Ted Cruz – Iran Revolution: Why This Is Different…Trump is not Obama
Podcast: Verdict with Ted Cruz
Air Date: January 19, 2026
Host: Senator Ted Cruz
Co-host: Ben Ferguson
Main Theme: American foreign policy in Iran and the global movement for regime change; contrasting Trump’s and Obama’s approaches
Episode Overview
This episode dives deep into the burgeoning revolution in Iran, examining why the current moment is different from past uprisings, and how U.S. foreign policy under President Trump stands in sharp contrast to policies under Presidents Obama and Biden. Senator Ted Cruz and Ben Ferguson analyze recent events, media narratives, the significance of regime change, and the broader implications for other authoritarian regimes like Venezuela and Cuba. The discussion is grounded in current news, historical context, and personal anecdotes.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Trump’s Bold Call for Regime Change in Iran
Timestamp: 02:54 – 03:25, 09:44 – 10:52
- Millions of Iranians are protesting against the regime, with President Trump voicing unambiguous support for their cause.
- “President Trump has come out unequivocally in support of the protesters…he came out and said it is time for a new government in Iran. The ayatollah needs to go.” — Senator Cruz (02:54)
- This declaration is “enormously consequential,” marking the first clear U.S. endorsement of regime change in Iran since the Islamic Revolution.
- Trump’s stance is presented as a clear break from the approaches of previous administrations, particularly Obama’s.
2. The Media and ‘Democracy’ – Conflicting Narratives
Timestamp: 04:46 – 09:44
- The hosts criticize mainstream media’s portrayal of Trump as "rogue" and express skepticism over warnings about democracy's fragility.
- “They think democracy died anytime the voters don’t elect left wing radical Democrats.” — Senator Cruz (05:57)
- Cruz breaks down the nuances between democracy and a republic, contending the left redefines democracy to align with their preferred outcomes.
- Potential for transformational global change: Cruz argues Iran is not alone; Venezuela and Cuba could both see the fall of anti-American regimes, drawing analogies to the fall of the Berlin Wall.
3. The “Regime Change” Stigma – Lessons from Iraq
Timestamp: 10:08 – 12:10
- Cruz clarifies support for regime change in Iran does not mean U.S. military invasion, referencing the public’s lingering wariness post-Iraq.
- “When I say ‘regime change,’ it doesn’t mean I want to send hundreds of thousands of American troops onto the ground in Iran…It is unequivocally in our interest to see the Ayatollah fall. I think the Ayatollah's fall ought to be driven primarily by the Iranian people.” — Senator Cruz (10:08)
- Trump’s policy is described as “stand with the people, threaten accountability," suggesting possible military consequences for atrocities but emphasizing Iranian agency.
4. Contrasting Trump and Obama Policy Toward Iran
Timestamp: 12:28 – 18:13
- Cruz reads and discusses Peter Thoreau’s Tablet Magazine article, outlining Obama’s failure to support the 2009 Green Movement and contrasting it with Trump’s direct rhetoric and action.
- “What shocked me about President Barack Obama’s lack of support for the Green Movement protesters in Iran was the failure to launch of the Commander in Chief’s colossal ego…Here were thousands of young Iranians filling the streets of Tehran to appeal to him.” — Peter Thoreau, as read by Cruz (14:18)
- Obama’s reluctance is framed as driven by ideological desire to normalize relations with the Iranian regime, and Obama is criticized for “coddling” Islamists.
- “Obama was leading. There’s practically not an Islamist on planet Earth that he didn’t coddle, embrace, and send money.” — Senator Cruz (22:25)
- Trump is described as leading decisively, with actions such as military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and support for free markets and U.S. interests globally.
5. Why This Iranian Uprising is Different
Timestamp: 22:57 – 30:19
- Economic collapse (hyperinflation, currency crash, bazaar closure) and mass protests are presented as new dynamics compared to 2009.
- Military and labor defections, as well as previous U.S. actions (e.g., killing of Qassem Soleimani, strikes on nuclear facilities), have left the regime vulnerable and fearful.
- “The battle space started shaping up six years ago this month under Trump with the U.S. killing…Qassam Soleimani…the second most powerful man in Iran…After 20 years of Bush, Obama and Biden kid gloves, Tehran was legitimately frightened.” — Cruz reading Peter Thoreau (24:27)
- The IRGC (Iran’s military) is described as potentially turning against the religious leadership if their interests are threatened, raising the specter of a coup.
6. Carrot-and-Stick Policy: Accountability for Atrocities
Timestamp: 30:21 – 30:51
- Trump’s messaging to protesters to “keep a list of the names of any soldiers…there is going to be accountability,” coupled with the threat of military consequences for regime violence, is framed as an effective deterrent.
7. The Role of Energy Policy in National Security and Regime Stability
Timestamp: 30:51 – 35:06
- U.S. energy independence is discussed as a critical foreign policy tool: by driving down oil prices, adversaries like Iran, Russia, and Venezuela are deprived of funds vital to regime survival.
- “Our energy independence policy is also a national security policy because when you take away the money that is to the leadership in Iran, to Vladimir Putin in Russia, Venezuela is another example…that cash flow…just completely disappears.” — Ben Ferguson (31:20)
- The Trump administration’s challenge is to keep oil prices low enough to hurt adversaries but high enough to support U.S. producers, striking a “sweet spot” that balances national and economic security.
8. Venezuela & Cuba: The Domino Effect
Timestamp: 35:35 – 46:56
- Cruz summarizes conversations with U.S. energy sector leaders and explains why Venezuela, despite large reserves, is not a threat to U.S. producers—their infrastructure is decades from recovery.
- Cuba’s dependence on Soviet, then Venezuelan, support is explored via Cruz’s personal family history; with Maduro gone, Cuba’s regime faces financial collapse.
- “Venezuela is no longer sending oil and no longer sending money to Cuba. And the Cuban economy is in free fall, just like the Iranian economy is in free fall.” — Senator Cruz (45:19)
- Current risk for Cuba’s communist regime: Without foreign aid, regime survival becomes increasingly untenable, but the dictatorship's repressive apparatus remains strong.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On the media and “democracy”:
“You keep on using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. Like their definition of democracy is not what you actually would get looking in the dictionary… Instead, what they mean by democracy is socialists and Marxists are in power.”
— Ted Cruz (05:57) -
On regime change and military intervention:
“When I say I support regime change, it doesn’t mean I want to send hundreds of thousands of American troops onto the ground in Iran… It is Iranians who are risking their lives to overturn this regime.”
— Ted Cruz (10:08) -
On Obama’s Iran policy:
“Obama was leading. Obama was leading. There is, there’s practically not an Islamist on planet Earth that he didn’t coddle, embrace, and send money.”
— Ted Cruz (22:25) -
On Trump’s deterrence strategy:
“Trump is saying to the protesters, keep a list of the names of any soldiers who are committing atrocities because there is going to be accountability. That carrot and stick is really powerful for deterring that kind of horrific action.”
— Ted Cruz (30:21) -
On the broader significance of this moment:
“In the next six months, we could see all three of those regimes [Iran, Venezuela, Cuba] fall. And if that happens… it will be the most consequential change on the global stage since the fall of the Berlin Wall.”
— Ted Cruz (07:58) -
On energy policy as foreign policy:
“Our energy independence policy is also a national security policy because when you take away the money… that cash flow…just completely disappears.”
— Ben Ferguson (31:20) -
On Cuba’s fragile regime:
“Venezuela is no longer sending oil and no longer sending money to Cuba. And the Cuban economy is in free fall, just like the Iranian economy is in free fall.”
— Ted Cruz (45:19)
Key Timestamps
- 02:54 – Trump’s historic call for regime change in Iran
- 09:44 – Clarifying “regime change” and the Iraq war legacy
- 12:28 – Contrasting Obama and Trump policies toward Iran
- 24:27 – Why the current Iranian uprising is unique
- 30:21 – Carrot-and-stick approach: accountability for atrocities
- 31:20 – Energy policy’s role in undermining adversaries
- 35:35 – Venezuela & Cuba: The domino effect of collapsing regimes
- 41:44 – Cuba update and the personal dimension of the Cuban struggle
Episode Tone & Style
The episode is highly energetic, combative, and partisan, combining wonky policy analysis with sharp rebukes of Democratic strategies, personal anecdotes, and a focus on American strategic interests. Senator Cruz brings in history, realpolitik, and an unapologetic support for Trump’s hardline approaches.
Summary Takeaways
- This is a pivotal moment for Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba — an opportunity Cruz argues could reshape the global order.
- President Trump’s foreign policy is defined by direct support for pro-freedom movements, economic pressure on adversaries, and clear deterrent threats—in contrast to what the hosts frame as Obama’s and Biden’s appeasement.
- Energy independence is wielded as a strategic tool, weakening anti-American regimes by depriving them of resources.
- The future of these regimes, and their impact on American and global security, depends on a volatile mix of internal dissent, international pressure, and smart policy choices.
For listeners who missed the episode:
This discussion is essential listening for those interested in U.S. foreign policy on Iran, the ripple effect on other authoritarian regimes, and the debates over intervention, democracy, and energy strategy. Even those unfamiliar with the intricate history will find clear explanations and lively, opinionated conversation.