VINCE Podcast - Episode 195

The 2026 Midterms Preview, with Ned Ryun
Date: December 24, 2025
Host: Vince Coglianese
Guest: Ned Ryun (Founder, American Majority)

Episode Overview

This episode of VINCE centers on the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, with an in-depth conversation between host Vince Coglianese and political strategist Ned Ryun. They discuss the state of the Republican Party, lessons from recent races (especially in Virginia), the strategic landscape for 2026, the Trump administration’s legislative track record, and the path forward for the MAGA/America First movement, ending on personal notes about faith and family.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Ned Ryun’s Background and “Insider-Outsider” Perspective

• [03:26–06:07]
  • Ned shares his roots in Kansas and describes his father Jim Ryun’s transition from Olympian to Congressman.
  • Ned explains his own path into Washington, D.C. and politics, highlighting his focus on “Americanism” over party-line orthodoxy.
  • Quote: “I'm an insider with the outsider's perspective.” (B, [05:13])
  • He credits his father’s principled example in Congress for his own resistance to the “gravitational pull” of establishment DC.
• On resisting DC establishment pressures:
  • “If you come into DC with your principles firmly in place and you do not waver on those principles...you have the ability to take strong stands, make the right decisions.” (B, [07:13])
  • Recalls the intense pressure his father faced during the 2003 Medicare Part D vote, and how he stood firm.

Ned Ryun’s Relationship with Donald Trump

• [09:49–11:33]
  • Ned discusses frequent, strategic communications with Trump, aiming to offer input on current political strategy, especially economic messaging.
  • Quote: “He'll call me after TV hits. I love it… It's obviously a great privilege that you would call me.” (B, [10:19])
  • He emphasizes to Trump that the key to midterms is affordability and health care, not just foreign policy.

Lessons from the Virginia Campaigns

• [11:33–13:51]
  • Both agree that campaign effort—ground game and message discipline—are make-or-break, as shown by the failures in Virginia’s most recent races.
  • Ned: “If you do not view the campaign as at least six days a week and at least 12 hours a day...don't even think about running for office.” (B, [12:28])
  • External factors like the government shutdown in VA also had impact but didn't excuse lack of candidate effort.

The 2026 Midterms - The Strategic Map

• [14:47–19:11]
  • Ned explains why recent results in blue-leaning states (VA, NJ) are not bellwethers for the 2026 national midterms due to skewed voter registration.
  • Key point: Republicans must “address that [economic] issue”—showing voters a tangible plan for affordability and cost of living.
  • Structural advantages: GOP likely to gain from redistricting, plus potential Supreme Court decisions (Louisiana vs. Calais) that could yield more congressional seats.
  • “If the midterms were held right now, we'd lose.” (B, [18:14])
  • Voter registration and “ballot generation” among low-propensity Republican voters will be decisive.
  • House races will be “an absolute dogfight.”

National Mood and the 2026 Election Vibe

• [19:11–22:46]
  • Vince argues the midterm cycle will have an unusually national, Trump-centric tone, with the White House aiming to make it a referendum on Trump.
  • Both note the importance of Trump in turning out “mid to low propensity” voters—higher turnout benefits Republicans now, contrary to pre-Trump days.
  • “Trump brings out the mid to low propensity voters and we have to have high turnout elections to win.” (B, [22:14])
  • Importance of voting by mail/ballot requests for better turnout.

Trump’s Legislative Record - “The Big Beautiful Law”

• [25:44–29:01]
  • Discussion of the Trump administration’s 2025 legislative accomplishments:
    • Making tax cuts permanent (“self-preservation" to avoid recession) [B, 26:47]
    • $175 billion for new border security, additional border wall miles
    • Structural immigration solutions—“mass invasion under Biden” being reversed
    • Deportation of 1.4 million illegals off Medicaid, defunding the Green New Deal
    • Increase in domestic energy production; deportation initiatives begun
  • Ned: “The future success [of the country] rises or falls off mass deportations being successful...” (B, [28:38])

Republican Reluctance and Political Power

• [29:01–31:42]
  • Vince expresses concern that GOP may shy away from “uglier” but necessary tasks—mass deportations, prosecuting corrupt officials—out of political cowardice.
  • Ned: “Most Republicans in D.C. [are] lacking a spine, lacking a backbone...Trump knows what to do with political power. Most Republicans don't.” (B, [30:00])
  • He argues Republicans must learn to use power decisively, lest they “lose the Republic.”
  • Succession is crucial: If the GOP returns to pre-Trump, corporate, uniparty politics, “we’ll lose the country.”

JD Vance as RNC Finance Chair and 2028 Heir Apparent

• [32:17–36:22]
  • Ryun shares that JD Vance’s key fundraising and resource allocation role as RNC Finance Chair will shape the midterms and, if successful, his position for 2028.
  • Vance’s rise signals MAGA continuity—Trump “pushed all of his chips into the middle of the table” with his VP pick.
  • “He [JD Vance] was coming with a vision that was America First...He gambled because he was going against the entire establishment… He chose J.D.” (A, [36:12])
  • The episode stresses that Trump’s movement must outlive his presidency with institutional and voter base engagement.

Movement Longevity & Future of GOP

• [36:22–37:33]
  • The challenge: With Trump having brought in new voters, ongoing engagement is critical for the America First movement to survive and grow post-Trump.
  • Ned: “If you don't engage there's going to be a snapback to the old ways of doing things and we're going to lose.” (B, [37:22])

Faith, Family, and Christmas Prayers

• [37:33–39:35]
  • In closing, Vince asks Ned about his Christmas prayers:
    • Ryun says he prays for his children’s future, for Trump’s wisdom and success, for the country’s future, and for personal perseverance.
    • Highlights the importance of faith: “If our faith does not drive us in all that we do, I'm not sure what we're doing.” (B, [39:29])

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Ned Ryun on his background:
  “I'm an insider with the outsider's perspective.” (B, [05:13])

• On political pressures in DC:
  “If you come into DC with your principles firmly in place and you do not waver...you have the ability to take strong stands.” (B, [07:13])

• On running for office:
  "If you do not view the campaign as at least six days a week and at least 12 hours a day...don't even think about running for office." (B, [12:28])

• On the present state of the electoral map:
  "If the midterms were held right now, we'd lose." (B, [18:14])

• On legislative wins:
  “Tax cuts permanent...If Republicans had not done that, massive tax increase might have even triggered a recession going into the midterms.” (B, [26:46])
  “Future success, rises or falls off mass deportations being successful.” (B, [28:38])

• On GOP courage:
  “Most Republicans in D.C. lacking a spine, lacking a backbone, wanting to do the hard things…” (B, [30:00])
  “…Trump knows what to do with political power. Most Republicans don't.” (B, [30:45])

• On JD Vance and MAGA continuity:
  “He [JD Vance] was coming with a vision that was America First...He gambled because he was going against the entire establishment…” (A, [36:12])

• A message of faith and perseverance:
  “If our faith does not drive us in all that we do, I'm not sure what we're doing.” (B, [39:29])

Important Timestamps

• [03:26] Ned Ryun introduction & background
• [09:49] Ned's communication with President Trump
• [11:33] Campaign lessons from Virginia
• [14:47] Strategic overview of 2026 midterms
• [19:11] The rigged map and voter turnout dynamics
• [25:44] Trump’s legislative wins: “The Big Beautiful Law”
• [29:01] Republican reluctance to wield power
• [32:17] The future: JD Vance and the party's direction
• [37:33] Ned Ryun's Christmas prayers and closing thoughts

Tone & Style

• Vince brings urgency, humor, and a personal touch, eager to dissect political strategy but also reflect on greater stakes.
• Ryun is conversational and candid—both strategic and deeply values-driven.

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This episode is a must-listen for those seeking a sharp, insider’s take on how the Republican coalition is evolving as America heads into the 2026 midterms. Vince Coglianese adeptly guides the conversation, with Ned Ryun providing grounded perspective on both strategy and values, blending political technicalities with broader reflections on faith, family, and the future of the conservative movement. The discussion moves from immediate campaign lessons and electoral math to the challenge of ensuring long-term transformation in the GOP and American politics.

Listeners are left with both clear-eyed caution and measured optimism—and a sense of what’s at stake as the political calendar turns to 2026.